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Strong Office Rental Reversion but Retail Tenant Sales Growth Relatively Weak

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Strong Office Rental Reversion but Retail Tenant Sales Growth Relatively Weak 11 February 2019 | 1:56AM HKT Swire Properties (1972.HK): 4Q18 operating data: Strong office rental reversion but retail tenant sales growth relatively weak 4Q18 operating data: Strong office rental reversion but relatively weaker retail Justin Kwok, CFA +852-2978-0481 | [email protected] On Feb 1, Swire Properties released its 4Q18/12M18 operating statement with Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. ongoing strong momentum in office rental reversion (refer to Swire Prop 1H18 Colin Yao +852-2978-1474 | [email protected] results review), but softer tenant sales growth in HK retail. We summarize our key Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. takeaways for each segment below. HK office rental portfolio: n Pacific Place (PP) saw its 12M18 rental reversion maintained at +26% yoy vs. +25%/15% in 9M18/2017. Cityplaza achieved positive reversion of +6% yoy (excluding Cityplaza 3&4) vs. +6%/6% in 9M18/2017. n Taikoo Place and One Island obtained positive 12M18 reversion at +6%/7% yoy respectively during 12M18 (vs. +6%/7% in 9M18 and +3%/10% in 2017). n They have achieved 100% pre-let in One Taikoo Place (refer to Swire Prop 3Q18 operating data note), the c.1mn sq ft GFA office tower scheduled for completion by late 2018, with key tenants including Ernst & Young, Facebook, Baker & McKenzie, and Royal Bank of Canada, among others. n South Island Place (attr. 383k sq ft GFA, scheduled for late 2018 completion)’s pre-leasing has reached c.75% (per Bloomberg dated Nov 7, 2018) n This echoes our positive view on the Hong Kong office property market with rental growth to remain on the positive side amid still stable demand, low vacancy, and tight supply. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Goldman Sachs Swire Properties (1972.HK) HK retail rental portfolio: n Pacific Place Mall’s tenant sales growth momentum further decelerated to +12% yoy in tenant sales in 12M18 vs. +17%/7% in 9M18/2017, which we think may potentially imply negative sales growth yoy in 4Q18. We think aside from the broader slower retail sales environment in HK amid uncertain macro and weaker RMB, we attribute part of the aforesaid slower momentum to the disruptions in their tenant reshuffling exercise. n Tenant sales of Cityplaza were up 6% yoy in 12M18 (vs. +7%/-3% in 9M18/2017), and Citygate’s tenant sales grew by 4% yoy in 12M18 (vs. +7%/0% in 9M18/2017), which we think was partly helped by the finishing of their tenant reshuffling exercise in the past 1-2 years. Exhibit 1: Faster PP office reversion and double-digit-percentage Exhibit 2: China retail portfolio’s tenant sales growth remains PP Mall tenant sales increase during 2018 strong HK office portfolio rental reversion rate and retail portfolio retail sales China retail portfolio tenant sales yoy yoy Retail sales growth yoy (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Office rental reversion (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China portfolio HK portfolio Taikoo Li Sanlitun, Beijing 26% 17% 19% 3% 6% 4% 11% Pacific Place 32% 27% 7% -1% 14% 15% 26% TaiKoo Hui, Guangzhou n.a. 25% 11% 16% 10% 27% 11% Cityplaza 30% 53% 25% 15% 9% 6% 6% INDIGO, Beijing n.a. n.a. 66% 30% 20% 60% 0% Taikoo Place 29% 48% 27% 10% 15% 3% 6% Sino-Ocean Taikoo Li, Chengdu (1) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 78% 49% 22% One Island East 51% 85% 14% 8% 29% 10% 7% HKRI Taikoo Hui, Shanghai (2) n.a. n.a. Techno-centre (1) 20% 25% 12% 6% n.a. n.a. n.a. Note: (1) Sino-Ocean Taikoo Li opened in April 2015 in Chengdu, China Note: (1) Techno-centre is vacated prior to the Taikoo Place redevelopment (2) HKRI Taikoo Hui opened in May, 2017 in Shanghai, China Retail sales growth yoy (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 HK portfolio Pacific Place Mall 0% 1% -6% -12% -13% 7% 12% Cityplaza 6% 2% 0% 1% -4% -3% 6% Citygate 21% 14% 5% -10% -8% 0% 4% HK total market retail sales (2) 10% 11% 0% -4% -8% 2% 14% Note: (2) HK total market retail sales released by Census and Statistics Department Source: Company data, HK Census and Statistics Department Source: Company data China retail rental portfolio: n Overall, the company’s China retail tenant sales growth remained strong in 12M2018. Taikoo Li Sanlitun, Beijing’s retail sales growth accelerated from +4% yoy in 2017 to +11% yoy in 2018. n Taikoo Hui, Guangzhou and INDIGO, Beijing’s retail sales growth decelerated, +11% and +0.3% yoy, respectively, in 2018 vs. +27% yoy and +59% yoy in 2017. n At Sino-Ocean Taikoo Li, Chengdu, which opened in 2015, retail sales growth was up at +22% yoy in 2018 vs. +49% yoy in 2017. Read-across for HK retail property segment n In the retail data HK Government had release recently, we see Dec 2018 recorded only 0.1% yoy growth in total retail, and full year 2018 ended up with 8.8% yoy growth (vs. +13.4% yoy in 1H2018). In Dec, 2018, we estimate that staple categories still recorded positive growth while discretionary segments were largely pulled back (Durable: -9.3% yoy and Valuable: -4.9% yoy). n We see aforesaid as broadly in line with MNACT 3Q (Sep to Dec 2018) Mar-FY19 results (Link to the note) guidance, that its Festival Walk which targets mid/high-end 11 February 2019 2 Goldman Sachs Swire Properties (1972.HK) domestic consumers, saw a 1% decline in tenant sales vs. +7% yoy in the previous quarter. Among their trade mix, they saw F&B/ cosmetics/ jewelry growth remain solid, while fashion/apparel/electronics were posting higher volatility. Exhibit 3: HK retail recorded 0.1% yoy growth in Dec, 2018, and Exhibit 4: Ongoing recovery in the HK retail market, with the latest 8.8% yoy in 2018 trend pointing to c.0.1% sales growth Retail sales growth by detailed category Our estimated HK retail sales growth decomposed by three key swing factors YoY growth contributions Electronics & Motor vehicles by categories (pp, 3mma) Super- Dept 20 Tourist spending 40% (YoY%) Total Food market Fuel Clothing Durables stores Valuable Others Domestic ex-Electronics & Motor vehicles Total retail sales growth yoy (RHS) By year 15 30% 2010 18.3% 9.6% 5.6% 9.9% 17.3% 26.9% 16.4% 36.1% 12.8% 2011 24.9% 7.2% 12.5% 14.7% 28.0% 28.6% 21.6% 46.6% 17.5% 10 20% 2012 9.8% 2.8% 10.3% 3.3% 7.6% 19.6% 9.7% 7.7% 9.1% 5 10% 2013 11.0% 3.5% 6.8% 0.1% 8.3% 3.4% 17.7% 22.9% 9.3% 2014 -0.2% 6.6% 4.6% -1.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.3% -13.7% 6.4% 0 0% 2015 -3.7% 5.8% 1.3% -10.5% -6.7% 6.1% -4.1% -15.6% -2.8% 2016 -8.1% 1.7% 0.8% -0.4% -4.6% -20.9% -6.2% -17.2% -0.4% -5 -10% 2017 2.2% 3.2% -0.2% 4.0% 0.2% -3.1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.4% 1H18 7.5% 1.5% 9.5% 11.9% 13.7% 14.1% 23.5% 15.8% 13.4% -10 -20% 3Q18 6.5% 3.8% 1.5% 10.6% 2.4% 2.4% 7.2% 13.4% 9.8% Dec-18 0.1% 1.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.7% -9.3% 4.9% -4.9% 8.1% -15 -30% YTD18 8.8% 4.7% 1.2% 8.6% 6.7% 7.1% 9.6% 13.7% 13.0% Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-15 Mar-18 Dec-14 Dec-17 Sep-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Dec-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Dec-18 Source: CEIC Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research What to do with the stock: In general, looking ahead, we expect the company to focus more on their investment properties ramp-ups (which we think is no longer new news, as the successful pre-leasing progress of One Taikoo Place is already well known), rather than disposals (which means fewer chances of near-term asset monetization) (more details refer to our downgrade note published in Mid-Jan). Given this, we expect no special dividend distribution in the near term. We maintain our 12-month FY19E NAV-based TP of HK$31.00 (target NAV discount of 25% unchanged). Maintain Neutral. Key risks: Downside: An abrupt economic slowdown dampening HK office demand; weaker Chinese outbound travel may hurt; lower-than-expected ramp-ups of new projects. Upside: A better-than-expected HK and China retail performance; distribution of special dividends; NAV-accretive M&A; better-than-expected uplift from improved infrastructure. 11 February 2019 3 Goldman Sachs Swire Properties (1972.HK) 1972.HK 12m Price Target: HK$31.00 Price: HK$30.95 Upside: 0.2% Neutral GS Forecast 12/17 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E Market cap: Revenue (HK$ mn) 18,558.0 13,899.7 14,747.1 14,670.7 HK$181.1bn / $23.1bn EBITDA (HK$ mn) 9,893.0 8,901.6 9,627.1 9,752.3 Enterprise value: EPS (HK$) 5.80 1.59 1.28 1.31 HK$218.8bn / $27.9bn P/E (X) 4.4 19.5 24.3 23.7 3m ADTV: HK$68.3mn / $8.7mn P/B (X) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Hong Kong Dividend yield (%) 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.1 Hong Kong Property Net debt/EBITDA (X) 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.6 M&A Rank: 3 FCF yield (%) 4.2 2.4 3.0 3.3 12/17 6/18 12/18E -- EPS (HK$) 3.28 3.62 (2.03) -- Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet.
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