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Economic Benefit Assessment www.concept.co.nz GeoFuture project: economic benefit assessment Final report July 2021 Disclaimer Except as expressly provided for in our engagement terms, Concept and its staff shall not, and do not, accept any liability for errors or omissions in this report or for any consequences of reliance on its content, conclusions or any material, correspondence of any form or discussions, arising out of or associated with its preparation. The analysis and opinions set out in this report reflect Concept’s best professional judgement at the time of writing. Concept shall not be liable for, and expressly excludes in advance any liability to update the analysis or information contained in this report after the date of the report, whether or not it has an effect on the findings and conclusions contained in the report. This report remains subject to any other qualifications or limitations set out in the engagement terms. © Copyright 2021 Concept Consulting Group Limited All rights reserved Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 0 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Structure of report .................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Information sources ................................................................................................................ 2 1.4 About Concept ........................................................................................................................ 2 2 Project description and reference scenarios .................................................................................. 3 2.1 Current position ...................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Proposed consents .................................................................................................................. 3 2.3 Base and counterfactual cases ................................................................................................ 4 3 Current and projected demand for electricity ................................................................................ 6 3.1 Summary – demand for electricity.......................................................................................... 6 3.2 Electricity is vital to economic and social well-being .............................................................. 6 3.3 Recent levels of demand ......................................................................................................... 7 3.4 Implications if secure supply cannot be maintained .............................................................. 8 3.5 Electricity usage expected to increase as New Zealand strives to cut emissions ................... 9 3.6 Covid-19 and Tiwai smelter future cause heightened near-term uncertainty ..................... 10 3.6.1 Covid-19 uncertainty ....................................................................................................... 10 3.6.2 Tiwai closure .................................................................................................................... 12 4 Electricity sector regulatory arrangements .................................................................................. 14 4.1 Summary - regulation ........................................................................................................... 14 4.2 Electricity sector structure .................................................................................................... 14 4.3 Electricity spot market underpins generation sector competition ....................................... 15 4.4 Retail and wholesale contract markets support generator competition ............................. 17 4.5 Developers of new generation face competition ................................................................. 17 4.6 Regulation of greenhouse gas emissions .............................................................................. 17 4.6.1 New Zealand has net zero target for emissions by 2050 ................................................ 18 4.6.2 Emissions trading scheme and carbon price ................................................................... 18 4.6.3 Carbon ‘leakage’ .............................................................................................................. 19 4.6.4 Future carbon prices ....................................................................................................... 19 5 New generation - potential sources of supply .............................................................................. 21 5.1 Summary – potential sources of new supply ........................................................................ 21 5.2 Existing supply base provides foundation for future development ..................................... 21 5.3 New supply options - availability and costs .......................................................................... 22 5.3.1 Hydro stations ................................................................................................................. 23 5.3.2 Geothermal generation ................................................................................................... 24 5.3.3 Wind generation ............................................................................................................. 27 5.3.4 Solar photovoltaic generation ......................................................................................... 31 5.3.5 Gas-fired generation ....................................................................................................... 33 5.3.6 Coal .................................................................................................................................. 34 6 Economic benefits from granting of Wairakei consents ............................................................... 36 6.1 Summary – economic benefits ............................................................................................. 36 6.2 Basis for economic assessment ............................................................................................. 36 6.3 Economic effects have been assessed under a range of future demand scenarios ............. 37 6.4 Element 1 - Economic benefits of continued operation of Te Mihi, Poihipi and WBP ......... 38 6.5 Element 2 – Enable GeoFuture project to proceed .............................................................. 40 6.6 Element 3 – Allow Wairakei A&B station to operate until GeoFuture is online ................... 42 6.7 Contribution to regional economy ....................................................................................... 45 6.7.1 Contribution to regional economy during construction phase ....................................... 46 6.7.2 Ongoing contribution to the regional economy ............................................................. 47 Executive summary Current position The Wairakei Geothermal Field currently supports power generation at the following facilities: 1. Te Mihi Station – this station was commissioned in 2014 and currently generates around 1,320 GWh/year. 2. Poihipi Station – this station commenced operation in 1997 and generates around 380 GWh/year. 3. Wairakei Binary Plant (WBP) – this plant was commissioned in 2005 and generates around 90 GWh/year. 4. Wairakei A&B Station – this facility commenced operation in 1958 and currently produces about 930 GWh/year. These facilities operate under resource consents which govern (among other matters) the total geothermal fluid take from the Wairakei Field. The current consents allow a maximum annual average daily take of 245 kt/day. These consents expire in 2026. Proposed consents Contact is seeking new consents which would enable: 1. The existing Te Mihi, Poihipi and Wairakei Binary Plant (WBP) facilities to continue to operate from 2026-20571. 2. The development and operation of the new GeoFuture power stations with an expected commissioning date between 2026 and 2031. The new plant may produce up to around 1,450 GWh/year of electricity, which would produce a net increase of up to 520 GWh/year compared to the existing Wairakei A&B station. 3. The continued operation of the Wairakei A&B Power Station until the GeoFuture plant comes into operation (or 2031 at the latest). The overall Wairakei Field fluid take in the proposed consents is 250kt/day (around 2% higher than the existing consents). Economic benefits of granting consent Granting the consents is expected to have significant economic benefits for New Zealand and the region.2 First, granting of consents would allow continued operation of the Te Mihi, Poihipi and Wairakei Binary Plant facilities. These facilities generate sufficient power to meet the energy needs of more than 250,000 households. We expect economic benefits to New Zealand of around $808 million in present value terms from continued operation of these plants. These benefits stem from avoided investment costs in replacement renewable plants that would otherwise be required. Second, granting of consents would allow the GeoFuture power stations to be developed to replace
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