How Can Air Travel Contribute to the Costs of Adapting to Climate Change?
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HOW CAN AIR TRAVEL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COSTS OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE? The feasibility of the International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) as a market governance mechanism Antonia Custance Baker – 2011 First published by International Shaping Sustainable Markets ACRONYMS AND Institute for Environment and is the new flagship research project for ABBREVIATIONS Development (UK) in 2011 the Sustainable Markets Group at IIED. ABTA Association of British Copyright © International Institute Can markets be ‘governed’ to better Travel Agents for Environment and Development benefit people and planet? This project APD Air Passenger Duty (UK) explores the individual and combined All rights reserved impact of market governance mechanisms CDM Clean Development ISBN: 978-1-84369-790-9 on sustainable development to find out Mechanism For further information please contact: what works, where and why. Some of CEC Commission of the International Institute for Environment these mechanisms are well established. European Communities and Development (IIED), 3 Endsleigh Others are innovative ideas yet to be CO2 Carbon dioxide Street, London WC1H 0DD, United tested in the real world. Kingdom. [email protected], COP Conference of Parties We want to improve and broaden www.iied.org/pubs EACC Economics of Adaptation understanding of how market to Climate Change Citation: Baker, A. (2011) How can air governance mechanisms can (World Bank) travel contribute to the costs of adapting be designed and used to secure to climate change? The feasibility of the livelihoods and protect environments. EU ETS European Union Emission International Air Passenger Adaptation Find out more about our work at Trading Scheme (EU) Levy (IAPAL) as a market governance http://shapingsustainablemarkets.iied.org GEF Global Environmental Facility mechanism. International Institute for We welcome your comments on this GHG Greenhouse Gas Environment and Development. London. publication or other aspects of Shaping GIACC Group on International Photos Sustainable Markets. Please contact Aviation and Climate Change p12 Climate Change Group at IIED series editor, [email protected] IAPAL International Air Passenger p22 Jess Ayers at IIED Disclaimer: This paper represents Adaptation Levy p27 OneWorld UK the view of the author and not IATA International Air Transport Designed by necessarily of IIED. Association SteersMcGillanEves Acknowledgements ICAO International Civil Aviation 01225 465546 The author would like to thank Emma Organization Printed by Blackmore, Muyeye Chambwera, IMO International Maritime Printed by Park Communications, UK. Sabine Minniger and Tom Birch for their Organisation FSC certified. review of this paper and their many IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on contributions and insights. Edited by Climate Change Nina Behrman IIED is grateful for the support from its IATAL International Air Travel Series editor Joint Framework donors DFID, DGIS, Adaptation Levy Emma Blackmore Danida, SIDA, NORAD and Irish Aid. LDC Least Developed Country Please recycle About the author MGM Market Governance Antonia Custance Baker studied Mechanism Economics at Cambridge followed NAPA National Adaptation by an MSc in Political Economy of Programmes of Action Development at the School of Oriental NEF and African Studies. Antonia spent New Economics Foundation two years in Namibia as part of the NGO Nongovernmental Overseas Development Institution Organisation Fellowship working for the Department UNDP United Nations Development of Environment and Tourism and Programme the Namibian Nature Foundation. UNEP United Nations Environment Antonia can be contacted on Programme [email protected] UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNTWO United Nations World Tourism Organization WEF World Economic Forum WMO World Meteorological Organization WTTC World Travel & Tourism Council HOW CAN AIR TRAVEL CONTRIBUTE TO THE COSTS OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE? The feasibility of the International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) as a market governance mechanism Antonia Custance Baker – 2011 Summary 04 Foreword 06 Introduction 08 ONE – KEY ASSUMPTIonS 10 Expected costs of adaptation Expected sources of adaptation funding Potential revenue from IAPAL TWO – CURRENT INTERNATIonAL AGREEMENTS 18 Current agreements and the ICAO EU Emission Trading System Case study: the United Kingdom Air Passenger Duty THREE – MAJOR STAkeHOLDERS 30 Airline companies The tourism sector Environmental NGOs and lobby groups The public in developed countries Conclusions and recommendations 38 References 40 Notes 43 FIGURE 3.1 Survey results on the allocation of revenue from taxes on air travel 36 TABLES 1.1 Estimated annual adaptation funding needed in developing countries (US$ billion) 11 1.2 New bilateral and multilateral climate funds 14 1.3 Price-elasticity of demand for flights 15 1.4 IATA geographic market analysis: estimated price-elasticity multipliers 16 2.1 The UK Air Passenger Levy, according to distance travelled 27 2.2 Current and forecast receipts from Air Passenger Duty 28 3.1 Emissions from global tourism in 2005 32 BOXES 2.1 Summary of Programme of Action on International Aviation and Climate Change 21 2.2 Summary of the Aviation Directive 26 SUMMARY By 2050, the costs of adapting to climate change This paper analyses current international agreements, in developing countries could reach US$100 to determine the feasibility of introducing IAPAL. billion per year, according to estimates from The International Civil Aviation Organization UNDP and the World Bank. Despite international (ICAO) is the UN agency with global responsibility pledges of financial support to developing for establishing standards, recommended practices countries for adaptation (and mitigation), it is and guidance on various aspects of international unclear where this funding will come from. aviation, including environmental protection. Despite New and additional sources of funding for ICAO’s current focus on the mitigation aspects of adaptation are desperately needed. aviation, the evidence suggests no likely contradiction in including a levy for adaptation purposes. This is The International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy providing that the purpose of IAPAL – adaptation (IAPAL) is a proposed new purchase tax on air rather than mitigation – is clear and that IAPAL tickets, the proceeds of which would be dedicated is not introduced at the expense of an effective to investment in adaptation to climate change. mitigation policy. IAPAL would not mitigate the effects of climate change because it does not aim to reduce flight The application of the European Union Emissions numbers and therefore aviation’s contribution to Trading Scheme (EU ETS) does not preclude climate change. IAPAL could immediately raise the use of revenue-raising instruments such up to US$10 billion annually for adaptation, and as IAPAL. Air Passenger Duty (APD) continues considerably more in the longer term. to be implemented in the UK, for example, as does the International Solidarity Levy in France. Aviation is a sector with a relatively low price- Using the UK as a case study, this paper explores elasticity of demand, meaning that price increases the possible administration of IAPAL, and do not greatly reduce the demand for most flights. possible methods of revenue collection. The This makes taxation an unsuitable method of APD demonstrates how a simple, single levy can reducing demand but indicates that it could produce high revenues with very low administration be suitable for raising revenue. It also suggests costs. It also demonstrates a political obstacle that that it could raise a considerable amount of IAPAL may face – governments prefer taxes paid revenue. This paper revisits the key assumptions within their countries to be returned as national made in the original paper proposing this revenue rather than to an international fund. scheme (by Müller and Hepburn in 2006), while also offering fresh thinking. 04 For the IAPAL scheme to be feasible, it must IAPAL is fair because it charges those who be accepted by several stakeholder groups are able to pay, and who contribute to climate with considerable influence and lobbying power change through air travel. The evidence overall at both national and international levels. The shows that the benefits of IAPAL undoubtedly major opposition to IAPAL is likely to come from outweigh the costs. Although IAPAL has not the aviation industry, particularly as there may been high on the political agenda at national or be some reduction in demand for flights. Budget international negotiation levels, strong support airlines supplying short-haul leisure flights are is likely if the idea is reintroduced. This paper likely to be most affected and most resistant suggests that IAPAL is a mechanism that is to the implementation of IAPAL. technically relatively straightforward to implement, and could be implemented quickly. IAPAL, The potential benefits of IAPAL for countries deserves urgent support as a tool to raise reliant on tourism are likely to outweigh the revenue for adaptation. costs of slightly reduced tourist numbers. However, tourism should be borne in mind when setting an appropriate price level for IAPAL. NGO and environmental lobby groups may criticise IAPAL for not focusing on mitigation efforts, and because the levy is applied per IAPAL COULD passenger rather than by emissions – which means it does not focus on cleaner technologies RAISE UP TO and fuller planes. However, recognition