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Savills Studley Research New York City

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Savills Studley Research New York City Savills Studley Research New York City Savills Studley Report New York City office sector Q2 2015 SUMMARY Market Highlights AVAILABILITY RATE FALLS LEASING RISES, BUT STILL SHORT OF “Class A tenants currently have ample options Manhattan's Class A availability rate HISTORICAL AVERAGE declined by 0.5 pp to 12.3%. Decreases in to pick from. Those with a lease expiration Deal volume rose to 7.7 msf in the second Midtown (-0.7 pp to 11.2%) and Midtown after 2017 will have even more to consider." South (-0.7 pp to 4.4%) offset an up-tick of quarter, its first increase since year-end 0.3 pp to 17.8% Downtown. 2013. However, it still stopped short of Steve Berliner, Executive Vice President the market's long-term average as leasing activity in Downtown has cooled. Pending ASKING RENTS JUMP leases in Lower Manhattan could reactivate “Early adopters leasing space on the leasing during the second half of the year, The average asking rent for Class A space in though. The Westside captured more than Westside stand to capture exceptional Manhattan rose by 2.3% to $81.26, with an 40% of deal volume in the second quarter, quality at a price that is competitive relative increase of 6.3% to $90.85 in Midtown. Big including Skadden Arps' 544,409-sf lease blocks of space with rent ranging from $130 at 1 Manhattan West and two more center to much of the existing space in Midtown.” to $205 at 9 W 57th, 650 Madison and 280 openings by WeWork. Bill Montana, Senior Managing Director Park continue to boost rents. Savills Studley Report | New York City Class A Options All Over Office-Using Employment Trends the Map Millions Leasing activity is not breaking any records 1.35 4.0% in Midtown and Lower Manhattan, but companies are on the move. Some are 1.30 2.0% committing to space in Hudson Yards and Downtown properties years in advance of 1.25 0.0% delivery. Unlike most early adopters, who pay more for new technology before it 1.20 -2.0% becomes mainstream, trailblazers in these new buildings are getting the best bargains. Other companies are picking off commodity 1.15 -4.0% 2009 spaces on lower floors in existing buildings. Deal volume rose to 7.7 msf in the second 1.10 -6.0% quarter, but fell a bit short of the market’s long-term quarterly average of 8.3 msf. The 1.05 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -8.0% Westside captured the lion’s share of leasing NYC Off. Emp. NYC (% Annual Change) U.S.(% Annual Change) activity, including the six largest deals of Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics the quarter. Brookfield started development at Manhattan West following a 544,009-sf lease by Skadden Arps at 1 Manhattan Availability Rate Trends (All Classes) West. The law firm will leave behind 826,000 (%) Overall Availability Rate Trends sf at 4 Times Square and has already vacated 200,000 sf at 1460 Broadway that 20% WeWork snatched up. 16.7% Demand for view space in the Plaza District and for Class B and C space in Midtown 15% South (as well as in surrounding areas such 11.9% 12.0% as Penn Plaza/Garment District) is brisk. 10.3% Landlords in these buildings are holding out 10% for top dollar and can scrutizine the firms 10.3% competing for their space more rigorously. In 8.9% the Class A sector, though, landlords are still vying with one another to draw companies 5% to the negotiating table. Class A tenants seeking 10,000 sf to 40,000 sf, particularly those who are geographically flexible, have Midtown Midtown South Downtown a wealth of options. Informed tenants who 0% do not have a very limited geographical 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 or floor requirement can take a calculated approach to leasing. Asking Rent Trends (All Classes) Tenants can find Class A space in nearly every section of Manhattan. Pricing is all ($/sf) Overall Rental Rate Trends over the place as well, ranging from big blocks priced at more than $150 psf at 9 $79.33 W. 57th Street, 590 Madison Avenue and $80 $69.68 860 Washington Street to space in Lower Manhattan generally ranging from $55.00 $73.36 psf to $75.00 psf. Quoted rents are higher $60 $65.08 than they were a few quarters ago. This is $56.71 largely a function of just how much of the current availability consists of space in the $40 $49.05 very-highest caliber buildings. The sub-$50 space that existed in 2013 and 2014 has been taken. In Midtown, tenants looking for $20 space from $60.00 psf to $80.00 psf can still find a lot of different choices. Remarkably, this includes space in the first stages of Midtown Midtown South Downtown Hudson Yards and Manhattan West. Tenants $0 venturing to Tenth Avenue will find space 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 with the most up-to-date technology, 02 Q2 2015 optimal efficiency and exceptional amenities, amidst what will eventually be a mini-city AvailabilityAvailability Rate Comparison Rate Comparison Rental Rate Comparison on Manhattan’s Far Westside, featuring Downtown II 3.0% more than 1.0 msf of luxury retail, 5,000 Plaza I $100.58 Grand Central II 6.7% new residences and up to 15.0 msf of office Westside I $97.77 Plaza I 6.9% space. Midtown $79.33 Midtown South I Class A Availability Could Exceed 30.0 7.7% Midtown South II $76.33 Plaza II msf by 2017 7.8% Grand Central I $75.48 Midtown South 8.9% Plaza II $74.15 Tenants with a lease expiration in 2018 Westside II 9.1% Midtown South $73.36 and beyond will have even more options. Midtown 10.3% Manhattan is in the early stages of its New York City $71.74 biggest development surge since the 1980s. New York City 10.4% Midtown South I $70.43 As of midyear, Manhattan had 24.8 msf Downtown 12.0% Westside II $65.18 of Class A space for lease that could be Midtown South II 12.2% Grand Central II $65.88 occupied immediately or within the next four Westside I 12.4% Downtown I $56.86 quarters. This is a substantial 20.0% decline Grand Central I 12.8% Downtown $56.71 from 30.6 msf in the second quarter of 2013 Downtown I 13.9% but is double the 12.0 msf of Class A space Downtown II $55.60 available in midyear 2007. The quantity of US Index 16.4% US Index $31.81 Class A available space could decrease (%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ($/sf) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 slightly in the second half of this year, but will start to mount again by 2016. The 24.0 msf does not include another 2.4 msf in existing buildings with occupancy in the second half Major Transactions of 2016 or later. Tenant Sq Feet Address Market Area Skadden Arps 544,009 1 Manhattan West Westside II Westside, Eastside, Downtown – Pick Morgan Stanley* 414,759 750 Seventh Avenue Westside II Your Spot WeWork 178,441 1460 Broadway Westside II NIKE, Inc. 147,954 855 Ave of the Americas Westside II Tenants can look forward to at least four Foot Locker 144,987 330 W 34th St Westside II more waves of new Class A product that WeWork 136,118 315 W 36th St Westside II stand to add 15.0 msf to 25.0 msf to inventory. Lower Manhattan has about one Citadel LLC* 119,956 601 Lexington Ave Plaza II to two years of space to absorb - 4.0 msf Bank of America* 114,767 1133 Ave of the Americas Westside I of new or renovated product remaining Norton Rose Fulbright 109,863 1301 Ave of Americas Westside I at 28 Liberty Street, and the World Trade Morgan Lewis & Bockius^^ 100,200 101 Park Ave Grand Central I Center. Midtown, though, has several years Sum of Top Leases 2,011,054 Sum of 2nd Quarter Leasing Activity 7.7 MSF of repositioning ahead of it. Hudson Yards *Renewal ^^Expansion and Manhattan West alone offer just less than 12.0 msf of new product. Ten Hudson Companies have been starved for new Avenue. World Financial Center’s roster was Yards has had success securing tenants but product over the last several cycles. decimated and Lower Manhattan had a 2.3 it still has 400,000 sf available and Related However, landlords leasing massive msf hole that undercut World Trade Center has more than 8.0 msf in future phases. complexes know from prior experience that leasing efforts. Brookfield’s Manhattan West has more they need to be realistic in their estimates than 3.0 msf remaining. of how long it will take them to achieve Three years – and a lot of relocations by stabilization. The World Trade Center took Midtown tenants later – what once looked In several years, possibly not until 2019 nearly a decade to fill, and vacancy at 11 like a debacle seems like a windfall. The size or later, new buildings such as 425 Park Times Square exceeded 50.0% for more of the space to be filled at World Financial Avenue and One Vanderbilt will present than three years. Timing is everything – a Center necessitated a complete overhaul of Midtown East with another 2.0 msf to 4.0 block or a building that initially seems the complex and the revival of a community msf.
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