Reforming Major Interest Rate Benchmarks
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Quantitative Easing and Inequality: QE Impacts on Wealth and Income Distribution in the United States After the Great Recession
University of Puget Sound Sound Ideas Economics Theses Economics, Department of Fall 2019 Quantitative Easing and Inequality: QE impacts on wealth and income distribution in the United States after the Great Recession Emily Davis Follow this and additional works at: https://soundideas.pugetsound.edu/economics_theses Part of the Finance Commons, Income Distribution Commons, Macroeconomics Commons, Political Economy Commons, and the Public Economics Commons Recommended Citation Davis, Emily, "Quantitative Easing and Inequality: QE impacts on wealth and income distribution in the United States after the Great Recession" (2019). Economics Theses. 108. https://soundideas.pugetsound.edu/economics_theses/108 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics, Department of at Sound Ideas. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economics Theses by an authorized administrator of Sound Ideas. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Quantitative Easing and Inequality: QE impacts on wealth and income distribution in the United States after the Great Recession Emily Davis Abstract In response to Great Recession, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing. Quantitative easing (QE) aided stabilization of the economy and reduction of the liquidity trap. This research evaluates the correlation between QE implementation and increased inequality through the recovery of the Great Recession. The paper begins with an evaluation of the literature focused on QE impacts on financial markets, wages, and debt. Then, the paper conducts an analysis of QE impacts on income, household wealth, corporations and the housing market. The analysis found that the changes in wealth distribution had a significant impact on increasing inequality. Changes in wages were not the prominent cause of changes in GINI post-recession so changes in existing wealth appeared to be a contributing factor. -
Interbank Offered Rates (Ibors) and Alternative Reference Rates (Arrs)
VERSION: 24 SEPTEMBER 2020 Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and Alternative Reference Rates (ARRs) The following table has been compiled on the basis of publicly available information. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in the table is accurate as at the date that the table was last revised, no warranty or representation is given as to the information in the table. The information in the table is a summary, is not exhaustive and is subject to change. Key Multiple-rate approach (IBOR + RFR) Moving to RFR only IBOR only Basis on Development of Expected/ Expected fall which forward-looking likely fall- back rate to IBOR is Expected ARR? back rate to the ARR (if 3 Expected being Date from date by the IBOR2 applicable) discontinu continued which which ation date (if Alternative ARR will replaceme for IBOR applicable Reference be nt of IBOR Currency IBOR (if any) )1 Rate published is needed ARS BAIBAR TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC (Argentina) 1 Information in this column is taken from Financial Stability Board “Reforming major interest rate benchmarks” progress reports and other publicly available English language sources. 2 This column sets out current expectations based on publicly available information but in many cases no formal decisions have been taken or announcements made. This column will be revisited and revised following publication of the ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol. References in this column to a rate being “Adjusted” are to such rate with adjustments being made (i) to reflect the fact that the applicable ARR may be an overnight rate while the IBOR rate will be a term rate and (ii) to add a spread. -
LCH Clears First Swaps Referencing SARON
LCH clears first swaps referencing SARON Migration to new Swiss reference rate comes ahead of discontinuation of TOIS on 29 December 2017 SwapClear has cleared circa CHF 30 trillion in Swiss Franc-denominated interest rate derivatives since the service’s inception Basler Kantonalbank, Credit Suisse and Zürcher Kantonalbank among the first members to clear using the new rate 18 October 2017 LCH, a leading global clearing house, today announced that it is now clearing Swiss Franc (CHF) interest rate swaps referencing SARON, the Swiss average overnight rate. The move comes ahead of the migration of CHF reference interest rates from TOIS to SARON, scheduled for 29 December 2017. Basler Kantonalbank, Credit Suisse and Zürcher Kantonalbank were among the first market participants to begin clearing using the rate. SARON is the new rate to be used for CHF overnight indexed swaps (OIS) and has recently been recommended as the alternative to Swiss Franc LIBOR and TOIS*. LCH has cleared approximately CHF 30 trillion in Swiss Franc-denominated interest rate derivatives since SwapClear started clearing the currency in June 2002. Michael Davie, Global Head of Rates, LCH, said: “The Swiss market is in the vanguard of a global move to new risk-free reference rates, attracting special attention given the Swiss Franc’s reserve currency status. LCH is delighted to have worked closely with our members, their clients and the regulators to effect a smooth and timely transition from TOIS to SARON. As well as clearing OTC derivatives referencing SARON, LCH has adopted this new preferred rate for cash flow discounting and investment benchmarking. -
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System John C. Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco December 2016 Working Paper 2016-11 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-11.pdf Suggested citation: Holston, Kathryn, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams. 2016. “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2016-11. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working- papers/wp2016-11.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants∗ Kathryn Holston Thomas Laubach John C. Williams December 15, 2016 Abstract U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest { the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances { have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies { Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. -
QE Equivalence to Interest Rate Policy: Implications for Exit
QE Equivalence to Interest Rate Policy: Implications for Exit Samuel Reynard∗ Preliminary Draft - January 13, 2015 Abstract A negative policy interest rate of about 4 percentage points equivalent to the Federal Reserve QE programs is estimated in a framework that accounts for the broad money supply of the central bank and commercial banks. This provides a quantitative estimate of how much higher (relative to pre-QE) the interbank interest rate will have to be set during the exit, for a given central bank’s balance sheet, to obtain a desired monetary policy stance. JEL classification: E52; E58; E51; E41; E43 Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Negative Interest Rate; Exit; Monetary policy transmission; Money Supply; Banking ∗Swiss National Bank. Email: [email protected]. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Swiss National Bank. I am thankful to Romain Baeriswyl, Marvin Goodfriend, and seminar participants at the BIS, Dallas Fed and SNB for helpful discussions and comments. 1 1. Introduction This paper presents and estimates a monetary policy transmission framework to jointly analyze central banks (CBs)’ asset purchase and interest rate policies. The negative policy interest rate equivalent to QE is estimated in a framework that ac- counts for the broad money supply of the CB and commercial banks. The framework characterises how standard monetary policy, setting an interbank market interest rate or interest on reserves (IOR), has to be adjusted to account for the effects of the CB’s broad money injection. It provides a quantitative estimate of how much higher (rel- ative to pre-QE) the interbank interest rate will have to be set during the exit, for a given central bank’s balance sheet, to obtain a desired monetary policy stance. -
LIBOR Transition: SOFR, So Good Implications of a New Reference Rate for Your Business • 2021
LIBOR transition: SOFR, so good Implications of a new reference rate for your business • 2021 Contents What is LIBOR? 2 What fallback language is currently in place? 16 Why does LIBOR have to go? 4 How will derivative contracts be impacted? 17 Who is driving the process? 5 How will loans and bonds be impacted? 19 How can LIBOR be replaced? 7 How is Wells Fargo contributing? 21 What should I know about SOFR? 9 Where can I get further information? 22 Why are repo transactions so important? 10 Contacts 22 How can SOFR fill LIBOR’s big shoes? 11 What is LIBOR? A brief history of the London Interbank Offered Rate The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) emerged in How is LIBOR set? the 1980s as the fast-growing and increasingly international financial markets demanded aconsistent rate to serve as • 11 – 16 contributor banks submit rates based on a common reference rate for financial contracts. A Greek theoretical borrowing costs banker is credited with arranging the first transaction to • The top 25% and bottom 25% of submissions are be based on the borrowing rates derived from a “set of thrown out reference banks” in 1969.¹ • Remaining rates are averaged together The adoption of LIBOR spread quickly as many market participants saw the value in a common base rate that could underpin and standardize private transactions. At first, the rate was self-regulated, but in 1986, the British 35 LIBOR rates published at 11:00 a.m. London Time Bankers’ Association (BBA), a trade group representing 5 currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF) with the London banks, stepped in to provide some oversight. -
Csl/19-28/Download
CFTC Letter No. 19-28 No-Action December 17, 2019 U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street, NW, Washington, DC 20581 Telephone: (202) 418-5000 Division of Clearing and Risk M. Clark Hutchison III Director Re: Staff No-Action Relief from the Swap Clearing Requirement for Amendments to Legacy Uncleared Swaps to Facilitate Orderly Transition from Inter-Bank Offered Rates to Alternative Risk-Free Rates Ladies and Gentlemen: This letter from the Division of Clearing and Risk (DCR) responds to a November 5, 2019 letter from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC)1 on behalf of its members that are subject to certain Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC or Commission) regulations.2 Among other things, ARRC requested no-action relief for failure to comply with certain provisions of the swap clearing requirement promulgated pursuant to section 2(h)(1)(A) of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and codified in part 50 of Commission regulations when swap counterparties amend certain uncleared swaps as part of an industry-wide initiative to amend swaps that reference certain London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) rates and other interbank offered rates (collectively with LIBOR, the IBORs)3 to reference specified risk-free rates (RFRs). ARRC’s request to DCR focuses on swaps that were executed prior to the compliance date on which swap counterparties were required to begin centrally clearing interest rate swaps (IRS) pursuant to the CFTC’s swap clearing requirement and thus were not required to be 1 Authorities representing U.S. banking regulators and other financial sector members, including the Commission, serve as non-voting ex officio members of the ARRC. -
HOW DID QUANTITATIVE EASING REALLY WORK? a New Methodology for Measuring the Fed’S Impact on Financial Markets
HOW DID QUANTITATIVE EASING REALLY WORK? A New Methodology for Measuring the Fed’s Impact on Financial Markets Ramin Toloui Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research [email protected] SIEPR Working Paper No. 19-032 November 2019 ABSTRACT This paper introduces a new methodology for measuring the impact of unconventional policies. Specifically, the paper examines how such policies reshaped market perceptions of how the Fed would behave in the future—not merely the expected path for policy rates, but how the central bank would adjust that path in response to different combinations of future inflation and growth. In short, it studies how quantitative easing affected investor beliefs about the future policy reaction function. The paper (1) proposes a novel model of market expectations for the central bank’s future policy reaction function based on the Taylor Rule; (2) shows that empirical estimates of the model exhibit structural breaks that coincide with innovations in unconventional policies; and (3) finds that such policy innovations were associated with regime shifts in the behavior of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, as well as unusual performance in risk assets such as credit spreads and equities. These findings provide evidence that a key causal channel for unconventional policies was via their impact on market expectations for the Fed’s future policy reaction function. These shifts in expectations, in turn, appear to have had larger, more persistent, and more pervasive effects across financial markets than found in previous studies. Monetary economics today is obsessed with balance sheets—and rightfully so. More than ten years after the global financial crisis, policy interest rates remain exceptionally low in much of the industrialized world. -
The Euro and Currency Unions October 2011 2 the Euro and Currency Unions | October 2011
GLOBAL LAW INTELLIGENCE UNIT The euro and currency unions October 2011 www.allenovery.com 2 The euro and currency unions | October 2011 Key map of jurisdictions © Allen & Overy LLP 2011 3 Contents Introduction 4 Map of world currencies 4 Currency unions 5 Break-up of currency unions 6 Break-up of federations 6 How could the eurozone break up? 6 Rights of withdrawal from the eurozone 7 Legal rights against a member withdrawing from the eurozone unilaterally 7 What would a currency law say? 8 Currency of debtors' obligations to creditors 8 Role of the lex monetae if the old currency (euro) is still in existence 9 Creditors' rights of action against debtors for currency depreciation 10 Why would a eurozone member want to leave? - the advantages 10 Why would a eurozone member want to leave? - the disadvantages 11 History of expulsions 12 What do you need for a currency union? 12 Bailing out bankrupt member states 13 European fire-power 14 Are new clauses needed to deal with a change of currency? 14 Related contractual terms 18 Neutering of protective clauses by currency law 18 Other impacts of a currency change 18 Reaction of markets 19 Conclusion 20 Contacts 21 www.allenovery.com 4 The euro and currency unions | October 2011 Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit The euro and currency unions October 2011 Introduction The views of the executive of the Intelligence Unit as to whether or not breakup of the eurozone currency union This paper reviews the role of the euro in the context of would be a bad idea will appear in the course of this paper. -
Libor's Long Goodbye
LIBOR’S LONG GOODBYE Readiness for LIBOR transition TRANSACTIONAL POWERHOUSE 1 CASE0155238_Report_Print Ready.indd 1 21/07/2020 12:06:23 Introduction As has been noted in a continuous drumbeat of warnings from major global, regional and local regulatory bodies, LIBOR is expected to go away at the end of 2021, when the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced it will withdraw support for the rate. This deadline was first announced This report also includes a matrix written, in each case that mature in a speech by Andrew Bailey, chief showing an assessment of readiness after 2021. The official sector executive of the FCA, in July 2017. for transition by currency and product of regulators and central banks Since more than half of the roughly type. As we’ve noted previously, continues to stress the need to four-and-a-half-year-period that that LIBOR transition is at different develop robust alternative reference speech gave until the deadline has stages of progress in different rates and robust contractual fallbacks now elapsed, it is perhaps fitting to jurisdictions and with respect to in the event that LIBOR were to consider how far markets have come different financial products. cease or become unrepresentative in LIBOR transition, and how much of underlying financial reality, and to further they need to go. LIBOR transition remains a transition to such alternative rates. fundamental issue confronting Despite the uncertainty that exists, the This report assesses the state of financial markets. To date, transition FCA has stated firmly that the end-2021 readiness for transition from LIBOR has been slower than regulators deadline remains in effect, a statement (and other interbank offered rates would like, and considerable it reiterated on 25 March 2020 in (IBORs)) to alternative interest rates uncertainty still exists (and may response to the Covid-19 pandemic. -
Interest-Rate-Growth Differentials and Government Debt Dynamics
From: OECD Journal: Economic Studies Access the journal at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/19952856 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics David Turner, Francesca Spinelli Please cite this article as: Turner, David and Francesca Spinelli (2012), “Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics”, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2012/1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k912k0zkhf8 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2012 © OECD 2013 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics by David Turner and Francesca Spinelli* The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This article investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on selected OECD economies as means of providing some guidance as to its future development. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes credibly targeting low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the “global savings glut” and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. -
FEDERAL FUNDS Marvin Goodfriend and William Whelpley
Page 7 The information in this chapter was last updated in 1993. Since the money market evolves very rapidly, recent developments may have superseded some of the content of this chapter. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Richmond, Virginia 1998 Chapter 2 FEDERAL FUNDS Marvin Goodfriend and William Whelpley Federal funds are the heart of the money market in the sense that they are the core of the overnight market for credit in the United States. Moreover, current and expected interest rates on federal funds are the basic rates to which all other money market rates are anchored. Understanding the federal funds market requires, above all, recognizing that its general character has been shaped by Federal Reserve policy. From the beginning, Federal Reserve regulatory rulings have encouraged the market's growth. Equally important, the federal funds rate has been a key monetary policy instrument. This chapter explains federal funds as a credit instrument, the funds rate as an instrument of monetary policy, and the funds market itself as an instrument of regulatory policy. CHARACTERISTICS OF FEDERAL FUNDS Three features taken together distinguish federal funds from other money market instruments. First, they are short-term borrowings of immediately available money—funds which can be transferred between depository institutions within a single business day. In 1991, nearly three-quarters of federal funds were overnight borrowings. The remainder were longer maturity borrowings known as term federal funds. Second, federal funds can be borrowed by only those depository institutions that are required by the Monetary Control Act of 1980 to hold reserves with Federal Reserve Banks.