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WATER QUALITY MODELLING of BUFFALO POUND LAKE by Julie

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WATER QUALITY MODELLING of BUFFALO POUND LAKE by Julie WATER QUALITY MODELLING OF BUFFALO POUND LAKE by Julie Terry A thesis submitted to the College of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies University of Saskatchewan in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The School of Environment and Sustainability March 2020 Copyright © Julie Terry, March, 2020. All Rights Reserved PERMISSION TO USE In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for a Postgraduate degree from the University of Saskatchewan, I agree that the Libraries of this University may make it freely available for inspection. I further agree that permission for copying of this thesis in any manner, in whole or in part, for scholarly purposes may be granted by the professor or professors who supervised my thesis work or, in their absence, by the Head of the Department or the Dean of the College in which my thesis work was done. It is understood that any copying or publication or use of this thesis or parts thereof for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. It is also understood that due recognition shall be given to me and to the University of Saskatchewan in any scholarly use which may be made of any material in my thesis. Requests for permission to copy or to make other use of material in this thesis in whole or part should be addressed to: Executive Director School of Environment and Sustainability University of Saskatchewan Room 323, Kirk Hall 117 Science Place Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada Or Dean College of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies University of Saskatchewan 116 Thorvaldson Building, 110 Science Place Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5C9 Canada i ABSTRACT The highly variable climate of the Canadian Prairies causes high economic losses from floods and droughts. Prairie waterbodies can be ice covered over half of the year impacting water transfer capacities and influencing aquatic processes and water quality. Available winter studies show ice cover has a wide ranging influence on physical, chemical and biological processes. Water quality models are an emerging tool in the Prairies for understanding complex ecosystem responses. Water quality modelling has traditionally been focussed on open water periods with under-ice processes largely ignored during calibration and model simulations. Management plans based on model results applicable to just four or five months of the year will overlook water quality issues under ice that can be informed by modelling. This thesis presents the first application of a complex hydrological-ecological model CE-QUAL-W2 to Buffalo Pound Lake an impounded, cold polymictic, natural lake supplying the water needs of approximately 25% of the Saskatchewan population. Three research themes investigate if 1) water quality is driven more by the lake’s catchment area or by internal lake processes, 2) how future flow management and climate change will affect the water quality of the lake, and 3) how under-ice processes can be successfully represented in the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Five water quality variables are simulated: Chlorophyll- + a, ammonia (ammonium, NH4 -N), nitrate (NO3-N), dissolved oxygen, and phosphate (PO4-P). This thesis is written in manuscript format. The first manuscript improves the predictive capabilities of the zero-order sediment compartment and adapts the model code to read a variable sediment oxygen demand rate in place of the existing fixed coefficient. A semi-automated calibration method finds an annual pattern between chlorophyll-a, summer oxygen demand and rate of winter decay. The second manuscript looks to improve the under-ice heat and light environment in the model by modifying the ice algorithm to incorporate a variable albedo rate. Simulated ice-off dates are found to be highly sensitive to the ending albedo value. Improvements to water quality predictions are limited by the connection of the ice and eutrophication modules in CE-QUAL-W2. A targeted monitoring program is suggested to reduce uncertainty with boundary data. The third manuscript tests the sensitivity of the model to catchment and in-lake boundary conditions. All five water quality variables are found to be most sensitive to modelled inflow ii discharge. The final chapter summarises the findings of the three manuscripts and presents a scenario based flow management analysis for discussion. This research finds the Buffalo Pound Lake model is most sensitive to catchment boundary data. Water quality in the lake may be impacted by changing inflows resulting from lake management decisions and climate change. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work is funded through the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Strategic Project Grant, the Buffalo Pound Water Treatment Plant (WTP), the Water Security Agency (WSA), the Global Institute for Water Security (GIWS), and the School of Environment and Sustainability (SENS). For the Buffalo Pound Lake project, I thank Heather Wilson (DEM preparation), and Dr. Helen Baulch (buoy data + funding support) from GIWS, and Paul Jones (boat sonar data) from SENS. I also thank John-Mark Davies (water-quality data), Dave MacDonald (GIS data), and Andrew Thornton (water demands) from the WSA. I am grateful to Curtis Hallborg from the WSA for hydrological data and his time in explaining the hydrology of the reservoir system. Water- quality data provided by Dan Conrad at the WTP is gratefully acknowledged. For my PhD program, I sincerely thank my supervisor Dr. Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt and members of my supervisory committee: Professor Steven C. Chapra, Dr. John-Mark Davies, Dr. Andrew Ireson, Dr. Saman Ravazi, and Dr. Rebecca North and Dr. Helen Baulch for their mentorship, guidance and support. I also deeply thank Dr. Michael Kehoe and Dr. Amir Sadeghian for their endless encouragement and technical and statistical expertise. I am grateful to Irene Schwalm of SENS for program administration assistance and guidance throughout. I thank all the University Faculty, employees and technicians that have contributed their expertise behind the scenes, and professionals in the field that have generously shared their knowledge. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PERMISSION TO USE ....................................................................................................... i ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... xiv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives and Thesis Structure........................................................................... 4 1.3 Copyright and Author Permissions ...................................................................... 5 PREFACE TO CHAPTER 2 .............................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 2: MODELLING DISSOLVED OXYGEN/SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND UNDER ICE IN A SHALLOW EUTROPHIC PRAIRIE RESERVOIR ........ 7 2.1 Abstract ................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Materials and Methods ....................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Site Description ...................................................................................... 11 2.3.2 Model Setup ........................................................................................... 12 v 2.3.3 Data Collection and Analysis................................................................. 13 2.3.4 Model Customisation ............................................................................. 15 2.3.5 Model Setup and Application ................................................................ 17 2.4 Results ................................................................................................................ 21 2.4.1 Dissolved Oxygen Simulation ............................................................... 21 2.4.2 Sediment Oxygen Demand Relationships ............................................. 22 2.5 Discussion .......................................................................................................... 23 2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 29 PREFACE TO CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................ 30 CHAPTER 3: CHALLENGES OF MODELLING WATER QUALITY IN A SHALLOW PRAIRIE LAKE WITH SEASONAL ICE COVER ................................... 31 3.1 Abstract .............................................................................................................
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