Bells Line of Road Corridor study

SUMMARY NOVEMBER 2005 Contents Foreword

The NSW and Australian governments have committed INTRODUCTION 03 funding to investigate the feasibility of upgrading the STRATEGIC CONTEXT 04 Bells Line of Road to become a major freight route OPTIONS CONSIDERED 07 between Lithgow and north-western Sydney.

KEY CONSTRAINTS 09 The existing crossings of the Blue Mountains include the Great Western Highway (primary route), Bells Line of Road (secondary route) and the Main SELECTION OF THE PREFERRED OPTION 13 Western Rail Line.All have major limitations to their use as significant transport NEED AND JUSTIFICATION 15 corridors across the Blue Mountains. The two road options are limited by very steep grades, tight curves and limited overtaking opportunities. Rail use is also constrained by freight and passenger rail having to share the same track.This, along with the steep grades, tight track curvature and limited opportunities for commuter trains to overtake freight trains, constrains rail in substantially increasing the amount of freight it is able to transport across the Blue Mountains. The Bells Line of Road Corridor Study concluded that: The Main Western Rail Line over the Blue Mountains could be upgraded but any upgrade would be unlikely to deliver significant benefits without major upgrades east of Penrith and west of Lithgow. All of the road upgrade options examined are feasible from an engineering perspective. None of the four-lane, B-Double road upgrade options examined appear feasible from an economic or financial perspective for a range of growth assumptions. All of the four-lane B-Double capable upgrade options would require the full regional and economic development growth potential of the Central West region to be realised over the next 30 years for the project to progress towards being justified economically. It is highly unlikely that private investment would be forthcoming to progress this project without significant government funding. All of the four-lane, B-Double road upgrade options, including the preferred option would have significant environmental and social impacts. Reserving a road corridor to enable future upgrade works along the Bells Line of Road is complex and is likely to result in the need for detailed and comprehensive environmental assessment and approval from the Commonwealth and State governments. It is also likely to require funding for property acquisition of approximately $230 million in 2004 dollars. This Summary provides an overview of the Bells Line of Road Corridor Study. ADDENDUM: A typographical error was corrected in June 2008 in the table at the bottom of page 12. The dollar value estimates for the Eastern to Richmond Road and Western precincts had been inadvertently transposed.

NOTE: This version of the summary has been amended to incorporate changes to the Environmental Planning & Assessment Act 1979 that became active in August 2005. Introduction

The NSW and Australian governments have committed funding to investigate the feasibility of upgrading the Bells Line of Road, between Lithgow and north-western Sydney, to B-Double (greater than 19m long) standard.The NSW Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA), in partnership with the Federal Department of Transport and Regional Services (DOTARS), is managing the study.

After a number of strategic studies during the 1990s, As a result, the RTA has engaged Sinclair Knight Merz to the NSW Government committed $360 million to the undertake a Corridor Study to: upgrade of the Great Western Highway and the Mitchell Review existing options to provide a link Highway between Penrith and Orange over a 12-year period. between Lithgow and the Westlink M7 The Australian Government also contributed $100 million to (formerly known as the Western Sydney Orbital). enable works in the Blue Mountains to be accelerated.These Identify the option that best meets the needs works are expected to result in significant improvements to of heavy vehicle access between Sydney and the primary Blue Mountains crossing. the Central West of NSW. Some stakeholders in NSW’s Central West are of the opinion Assess the feasibility of a high standard road that the lack of an efficient freight route across the Blue across the Blue Mountains along the Bells Line Mountains is constraining regional growth. They are also of Road corridor. concerned that there is B-Double vehicle access to the Sydney area from the north and south but not from the west.They are Develop a concept design for the best of of the view that this represents inequitable access to regional the four-lane options, to meet B-Double markets and a major constraint to growth. standards.

B-Double (greater than 19m long) approved routes

Dubbo

Denman

Newcastle

Parkes Orange Bathurst Lithgow

Sydney Cowra N West Wyalong 02550 Kilometres Wollongong Young

LEGEND Cootamundra B-Double Route Goulburn Yass

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 3 Strategic context

Bells Line of Road has been investigated as a freight route across the Blue Mountains since the earliest days of European settlement.With the competing local and through-traffic demands along the Great Western Highway some stakeholders in NSW’s Central West have been promoting an upgraded Bells Line of Road as a strategic regional development link between that region and the Sydney metropolitan area.

St Davids Anglican church on Bells Line of Road at Kurrajong Heights. EXISTING ROLE Bells Line of Road provides a secondary crossing of the Blue Mountains supporting the Great Western Highway.This role is clear when looking at the comparison of the daily traffic volumes in the diagram opposite on p5. In addition to its supplementary role Bells Line of Road also provides: Access to properties along the route. Local access for Bilpin and Kurrajong areas.

HISTORY OF THE ROUTE Recreation and tourism access. Firebreak and emergency access. Bells Line of Road is rich in history reaching back to the early days of British settlement of the then young colony of New EXISTING CONDITION South Wales. At that time, the Blue Mountains constituted a Adjacent land uses visible and real boundary to the pioneers who were confined The major land uses in the vicinity of Bells Line of Road to the relatively narrow coastal plain. are conservation and recreation, and rural production. A route to the south of the Grose River, clinging to the ridges, In terms of land use, the study area can essentially be divided was finally established with the aid of Aboriginal people in into four sections: 1813.The current alignment of the Great Western Highway The eastern section, east of the Blue Mountains essentially follows this route.A separate route to the north of escarpment at Kurrajong Heights, which includes the the Grose River did not reach the Bathurst Plains until 1823 Cumberland Plain, was a mix of urban and village areas, when Archibald Bell (Junior) established its viability in a series urban fringe areas and rural production, and scattered, of three journeys in that year. generally isolated conservation areas. Despite some initial enthusiasm for Bell's more direct route, The mid-eastern section, from Kurrajong Heights to the Great Western Highway remained the dominant route. Mt Tomah,which includes generally rural uses following As a result very little public money was expended on the ridgeline adjacent to the road. improving the dangerous pinches on the Bells Line of Road, The mid-western section, which includes predominantly which remained primarily a stock route until well into the conservation related land uses within National Parks, twentieth century. World Heritage Areas and Wilderness Areas between Mt Tomah and Newnes Junction. The western section, between Newnes Junction and Lithgow, which includes a mix of forestry and open grazing land, resource mining and the city of Lithgow.

4 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary The listing of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, the Existing traffic volumes of Blue Mountains crossings identification of Bilpin as an ecological gateway and the high biodiversity value adjacent to much of the route limit the 8000 Bells Line Road range of land uses able to be pursued and also place Lithgow 3000 12,000 constraints on existing land uses. SECTION 1

Traffic flows 14,000 SECTION 2 Richmond As can be seen in the diagram on the right, traffic volumes SECTION 3 vary significantly along the route. Traffic flows increase 22,000 34,000 significantly at either end of the route with approximately 8,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in the west (influenced by Katoomba Glenbrook Lithgow) and approximately 12,000 vpd in the east (influenced by Richmond). This compares with about 3,000 vpd in the central area. features of the existing road have contributed to accidents Weekend traffic along Bells Line of Road is approximately 60% in a number of cases.The accident rate is higher on Bells higher than weekday traffic indicating its tourist value. Line of Road than the State average and higher than the Great Western Highway. Traffic volumes have remained similar since the mid 1970s for much of the route.The exception to this is the eastern section Over 120 serious injury accidents occur each year on where Sydney’s growth to the west and north-west has seen Bells Line of Road. Investigation of the accident data a steady increase in traffic using Bells Line of Road. indicated that: There were 564 accidents recorded between 1994-1998 Travel times and 545 between 1998-2002 indicating that the accident Travel over the Blue Mountains along the existing Bells Line of rate has remained fairly constant, but nevertheless Road is generally faster, from end to end (as seen in the table is too high. below), than the slightly longer journey via the Great Western Highway. In more remote areas along the route most accidents involved vehicles leaving the road. Travel speeds are lower on weekends when weekend tourist traffic increases. The sections of Bells Line of Road around The highest proportion of accidents involving heavy-goods Bellbird Hill and Mt Tomah that are steep and winding slow vehicles was between Kurrajong Heights and Newnes travels speeds significantly in these areas.The travel speed in Junction, many of these were vehicles leaving the road the vicinity of North Richmond is also slow due to intersection and steep grades were attributable in a number of cases. performance and additional traffic. Eleven of the 13 fatal accidents recorded occurred between Kurrajong Heights and Newnes Junction. Road safety Bells Line of Road has a high accident rate, particularly in the areas around Lithgow and towards Kurrajong, where

AVERAGE TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN LITHGOW AND THE M7

ROUTE DISTANCE (KM FROM LITHGOW TO M7) AVERAGE TRAVEL TIME (TO NEAREST 5 MINUTES)

WESTBOUND EASTBOUND TRUCKS CARS TRUCKS CARS

BELLS LINE OF ROAD 81 90 65 85 70

GREAT WESTERN HIGHWAY 89 100 85 95 85

5 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Travel patterns OTHER INVESTIGATIONS The results from a truck origin /destination survey for both A number of strategic studies and policies have been Bells Line of Road and the Great Western Highway are developed that are relevant to this investigation.These include: described below.The predominant trip end region is Western Central West Transport Study, 1996 by SMEC on behalf of NSW, which accounts for the majority of origins and Central Regional Organisation of Councils (CENTROC), destinations for westbound trips.The main points to note from the former NSW Department of Transport, the RTA and the survey are that: other State agencies. Bathurst, Orange and Oberon account for almost 80% NSW Regional Study (The Central West), of origins and destinations in that region. 1997 by NRMA. Orange produces a significant amount of manufactured Action for Transport 2010, 1998 goods and receives a large amount petroleum to support by the NSW Government. these industries. Penrith to Orange Transport Corridor Study, Bathurst attracts a high proportion of building material 1998 by Sinclair Knight Merz on behalf of the RTA. freight to the region due to its continuing residential growth. The Regional Economics Research Unit Study (RERU), 1999 by Charles Sturt University on behalf of CENTROC. Approximately 50% of eastbound truck traffic travelling to Sydney is destined east of the Westlink M7. The Bells Line of Road Development Study, 2000 by Maunsell McIntyre on behalf of the RTA. Almost all building materials and consumables are carried on the Great Western Highway. One-third of trucks on The Great Western Highway was the focus of the first four Bells Line of Road travel empty.The route also carries a studies while Bells Line of Road was the focus of the last two. significant amount of farming and forestry cargo. The Charles Sturt University study identified a number of The typical journey length is between three and five hours economic and regional benefits of upgrading Bells Line of Road which corresponds to the approximate time taken for the to a four-lane motorway standard. However, the study also journey between Sydney and Lithgow/Bathurst. noted that the costs were likely to outweigh the proposed benefits. Road design The study by Maunsell McIntyre concluded that: Due to the mountainous terrain, the road has a high degree of curvature resulting in at least 35% of the 81km from Medium to long-term traffic demand across the Blue Richmond to Lithgow is subject to advisory speeds of less than Mountains justified the development of only one primary 100km/hr. route and a supplementary route. Steep gradients are common. Six percent of the route has The Great Western Highway is already the more grades in excess of 10% (13% maximum) and 34% has grades developed route and is designated as part of the between 4% and 10%.With most fully-laden trucks travelling Australian Government’s AusLink National Network. at speeds of less than 50km/hr when sustained uphill grades Bells Line of Road would be very expensive to exceed 4% to 6%, Bells Line of Road, in its current condition, develop to a significantly higher standard because would not be suitable as a designated truck route and would of the severe terrain. not be able to cater for B-Double vehicles. Continued investment in the Great Western Highway A further limitation to B-Doubles using Bells Line of Road is should remain the priority, with periodic but limited that the tight curves result in the swept path of long vehicles improvements to Bells Line of Road as the exceeding existing lane widths.This means that long vehicles supplementary route. are sometimes forced to cross the centreline or have wheels running outside the edge of the pavement which are both unsatisfactory from a road safety perspective.

6 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Options considered

Five road upgrade options were developed in The Bells Line of Road Development Study (2000). These were further assessed and refined as part of this corridor study.The potential to address freight issues through the enhancement of the Main Western Rail Line was also considered.

RAIL OPTION 4 Upgrade existing Bells Line of Road between No major rail improvements are currently planned for Richmond and Bell, add passing/climbing lanes and other the Main Western Rail Line.There are unlikely to be service incremental improvements where feasible on the current improvements needed over the next 15 years or so for the alignment. Not suitable for B-Doubles over 19m. rail passenger demand expected west of Penrith. OPTION 5 Maintenance and progressive local safety Currently, rail has a 64% share of the total freight tonnes improvements. Not suitable for B-Doubles over 19m. moved across the mountains and a 74% share of interstate These options did not include connections into the Sydney freight tonnage. Most of this rail traffic is coal to Port Kembla. road network and specifically to the Westlink M7. Growth in freight rail volumes in the corridor is expected to The potential transport solutions were assessed against be largely accommodated by the existing rail infrastructure and the project objectives developed for this corridor study, services. However, after about 2011, without major track which were: capacity improvements and improved access and train paths Review the options for upgrading the Bells Line of to the Sydney rail network, rail is likely to begin to lose market Road corridor investigated in The Bells Line of Road share to road, especially for general freight. Development Study (2000) to identify the option that Enhancement of the Main Western Rail Line would be difficult, best meets the needs of heavy vehicle access between but feasible, from an engineering perspective but is unlikely to Sydney and NSW’s Central West. deliver the significant transport and access benefits desired Develop the design and fully assess the best of without further capacity enhancements east of Penrith and the four-lane B Double capable options. west of Lithgow. The five options described above were assessed against the project objectives. Only two of the options satisfied the project ROAD OPTIONS objectives.The other three were not pursued in detail, even Five possible improvement options were developed as part of though some had merit when combined with other transport The Bells Line of Road Development Study.A brief description enhancements along the Great Western Highway corridor. of the options investigated is as follows: For the purposes of options assessment the route was divided OPTION 1 High standard 100-110 km/hr design speed route into three precincts and the options re-named. The three with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7%.Would be precincts can be seen on the adjacent map along with the suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. options: OPTION 2 Medium standard 70 – 100km/hr design speed, Western Precinct. four-lane road on existing alignment as far as practical, with Central Precinct. improvements for truck use and easing of tight curves.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. Eastern Precinct. OPTION 3 Upgrade two-lane road for truck use by adding The options in each of the precincts are described in the table passing/climbing lanes from Newnes Junction via Bell to Mt opposite and illustrated in the map on page 13. Victoria, and new bypass road around Lithgow between Marangaroo and Newnes Junction. There would be no substantial road works east of Bell.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles.

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 7 OPTION DESCRIPTION

Western Precinct Option WPNth1 High standard 100-110 kph design speed northern Lithgow bypass route with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7%.This would be a new road between Marangaroo and Bell.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. Option WPSth1 High standard 100-110 kph design speed southern Lithgow bypass route with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7%.This would be a new road between Marangaroo and Bell.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. Option WPNth2 Medium standard 70 – 100 kph design speed northern Lithgow bypass route with four lanes. Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles but at lower standard to reduce footprint. Option WPSth2 Medium standard 70 – 100 kph design speed southern Lithgow bypass route with four lanes. Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles but at lower standard to reduce footprint. Option WP3 Medium standard 70 – 100 kph design speed to upgrade two- lane road for truck use adding passing/climbing lanes from Newnes Junction via Bell to Mt Victoria, and new bypass road north of Lithgow (the southern bypass) between Marangaroo and Newnes Junction.There would be no substantial road works east of Bell.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles.

Central Precinct Option CP1 High standard 100-110 kph design speed with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7% between Bell and Kurrajong Heights.Would involve the straightening of numerous curves and a tunnel under Mt Tomah.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles.There would be prohibitions on vehicles carrying dangerous goods using the tunnel. Option CP2 Medium standard 70 – 100 kph design speed with four lanes. Many tight curves would remain and would remain at-grade at Mt Tomah.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles but at lower standard to reduce footprint. Option CP1A Exactly the same as CP1 except that the upgrade would remain at-grade at Mt Tomah.

Eastern Precinct Option EPNth1 High standard 100-110 kph design speed with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7%. This would involve a bypass of Bellbird Hill. It would also require a bypass of Richmond. Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. Option EPSth1 High standard 100-110 kph design speed with four lanes and gradient generally less than 7%. This would involve a new road bypassing Kurrajong Heights to Agnes Banks. It would also require an extension of the M2 corridor to Blacktown.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles. Option EPNth2 Medium standard 70 – 100 kph design speed with four lanes.This would stay as close as possible to the existing alignment. It would also require a bypass of Richmond.Would be suitable for all vehicles including B-Doubles.

8 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Key constraints

There are a range of environmental, engineering and economic constraints that have the potential to affect the proposed route options. Effects range from issues that should be avoided if practica- ble to constraints that could prevent from the project proceeding.

CONSTRAINTS CONSIDERED Many of the houses directly adjacent to the existing road A wide range of constraints were considered in the would be within the footprint of the new road and would investigations carried out for this corridor study including: therefore require acquisition. While this would negate the noise issue for those residences, the properties with partial Land use and statutory planning. acquisition would be the most significantly impacted. Biological. There are a number of schools along Bells Line of Road that Indigenous heritage. would require specific noise treatment. Solutions to bypass Non-Indigenous heritage. centres along the route would assist in alleviating potentially Noise and vibration. severe noise amenity impacts for areas such as Bilpin, Kurmond and Kurrajong. Hydrology and hydraulics. Air quality. HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS Engineering feasibility. Flooding is only a major issue in the Eastern Precinct. It Cost/Affordability. is unlikely that flood-free bridges would be warranted Many of these issues provide constraints to the project either across this flood plain for the Probable Maximum Flood along its length or in one or more of the three precincts. (PMF) level, but design may be possible for medium to large Information in this booklet focuses on the key constraints that flood events. either assist in differentiating options or have the potential to Both the northern and southern options face significant significantly affect the viability of the project. problems in crossing the Hawkesbury/Nepean River floodplain. NON-INDIGENOUS HERITAGE

Items of Non-indigenous heritage would be impacted by AIR QUALITY the options in all precincts. However, items of State heritage The key air quality issue is the effect of introducing a major significance are able to be avoided. new traffic/emissions source in north-western Sydney (the Sydney airshed) and the Lithgow airshed.This is an issue for INDIGENOUS HERITAGE the project as a whole rather than any particular option.This A number of indigenous heritage items occur in the vicinity of would need to be addressed during Environmental Impact the existing road, mainly in the central and western precincts. Statement (EIS) investigations. This assessment is based on known archaeological sites. A Generally, options that result in less steep grades will be better major issue is that there is little known for this area because of from an air quality perspective.Additionally, towns that can be the lack of field survey data, resulting in an increase in risk that bypassed along the route would have an air quality advantage. unknown sites and artefacts are likely to be discovered during The other key air quality issue was associated with Option detailed investigations. CP1 which includes a 1.3km tunnel under Mt Tomah that would require ventilation.The tunnel would result in exposure NOISE AND VIBRATION to less emissions than with a surface road option, but a Noise and vibration will be an important issue for the amenity ventilation stack, if needed, in a largely undisturbed area of communities along Bells Line of Road.There is already a high bounded by National Park and a World Heritage area is proportion of heavy vehicle traffic using the road. This will likely to attract significant community and environmental increase substantially with an upgraded four-lane designated stakeholder opposition.The tunnel option is also significantly freight route. more expensive than the surface road option.

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 9 Options for Bells Line of Road

Western Precinct Central Precinct Eastern Precinct

WOLLEMI NATIONAL PARK

BLUE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK

Marrangaroo Newnes Junction Lithgow Bilpin Bell Kurrajong Heights Mount Tomah Hartley Berambing Kurrajong Kurmond Bowen Mountain LEGEND Mount Victoria Grose Vale Windsor NPWS Estate Boundary BLUE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK Agnes Banks Richmond M7 West Link (WSO) Network Connection Blackheath Road Rail Katoomba Springwood Marsden Park DESIGN OPTIONS EP Nth 1 Wentworth Falls Hazelbrook Dean Park CP 2 Blaxland CP 1 Penrith EP Nth 2 EP Sth 1

WP Sth 0510 WP Nth1 N Kilometres WP 3

The remaining constraints have the potential to prevent the To impact on the National Parks, legislation would need to project from proceeding. be changed to amend Park boundaries.This would require the concurrence of National Parks and Wildlife Service LAND USE AND STATUTORY PLANNING (now Department of Environment and Conservation [DEC]), which will require strong justification for the Land affected by the proposed Bells Line of Road upgrade project and assurance that there are no feasible options has statutory planning controls at Commonwealth and alternatives State.This is the case irrespective of the option considered.This Under the Commonwealth Environment Protection and will result in a complex statutory approval process at both Biodiversity Conservation Act, 1999 (EPBC Act), actions which levels of government. may have a significant impact on matters of ‘national Approval of the proposal would be required under the environmental significance’ are taken to be ‘controlled actions’. recently introduced Part 3A of the Environmental Planning & This means that they come under the control of the EPBC Assessment Act, 1979 (EP&A Act).The proposal would be the Act, and are subject to the assessment and approval processes subject of an environmental assessment which would examine it establishes. the potential impacts of the preferred route. If a decision was The matters of national environmental significance, as stated in made to proceed with the proposal, the refined design and the EPBC Act are: assessment would be displayed for community comment prior World Heritage properties. to assessment of the proposal by the Department of Planning and consideration by the Minister for Planning. Ramsar wetlands. Nationally threatened species and communities. In most areas, the National Park boundaries mirror those of the Blue Mountains World Heritage area.These are significant Migratory species protected under statutory constraints. As can be seen by the possible cross international agreements. sections on the following page, the encroachment into these The Commonwealth marine environment. valuable ecological areas will be significant. Nuclear actions.

10 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Due to the impact of options on the Blue Mountains World Western Precinct Heritage area, the project would trigger the EPBC Act The WPNth options would result in greater clearing of native provisions. It may also trigger those applicable to nationally vegetation and greater risk of discovering threatened flora and threatened species and communities and migratory species fauna species that were not known to occur, simply because of protected under international agreements. the historic lack of field investigations in the area. It should be noted that WPSth options will also have a significant impact on Western Precinct the clearing of native vegetation. WPNth and WPSth options avoid all National Parks, World Heritage areas and wilderness areas. WP3 encroaches on a Central Precinct small area of Blue Mountains National Park and the associated CP2 would result in marginally less native vegetation clearing World Heritage area.There is potential for this to be avoided than CP1. Both would be in areas of National Park and World with the steepening of batters. Heritage.

Central Precinct Eastern Precinct Both CP1 and CP2 would have significant incursions into Blue WPSth1 has the potential to impact on significant areas of Mountains National Park and minor incursions into Wollemi core habitat and support for core habitat as seen on the National Park. CP2 would have marginally less effect. adjacent map. It would result in extensive clearing of native vegetation, including portions of four endangered ecological Eastern Precinct communities.This represents a significant constraint for EPSth1. EPNth1 would impact on a small area of National Park as part of the Bellbird Hill deviation. EPNth2 would impact on a small area of National Park and World Heritage area to the north- ENGINEERING FEASIBILITY west of Kurrajong Heights.This impacts likely to be negated in the From an engineering feasibility perspective, the two key areas refinement of the concept design. EPSth1 would have significant of engineering risk are the Mt Tomah Tunnel as part of option incursions into National Park and World Heritage area. CP1 and the route of EPSth1 at Bowen Mountain.The tunnel presents a range of geotechnical uncertainties that all have the BIOLOGICAL potential to significantly increase the project costs. Options in all precincts would result in extensive clearing of While the EPNth options intersect with the Kurrajong Fault, native vegetation. It is likely that threatened flora and fauna seismic events would not be damaging, but could cause species would be impacted, requiring the need for a SIS. rockfalls in vulnerable locations, such as deep cuttings.

Possible cross sections

Shoulder 2.00 Traffic Lane 3.50 Traffic Lane 3.50 Median 11.00 Traffic Lane 3.50 Traffic Lane 3.50 Shoulder 2.00 Shoulder 1.00 Shoulder 1.00

Shoulder 2.00 Traffic Lane 3.50 Traffic Lane 3.50 Median 5.00 Traffic Lane 3.50 Traffic Lane 3.50 Shoulder 2.00 Shoulder 1.00 Shoulder 1.00

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 11 Effects of Eastern Precinct options on core habitat.

Kurrajong Heights N Glossodia 024 Kilometres Kurmond Cattai

Bowen Mountain Kurrajong Wilberforce Grose Vale Pitt Town Cornwallis

Windsor BLUE MOUNTAINS Agnes Banks Richmond

LEGEND

Flora Fauna Vineyard M7 West Link (WSO) Londonderry Network Connection

NPWS CORE HABITAT Riverstone Core Habitat Support to Core Habitat

DESIGN OPTIONS Marsden Park EP Nth 1 CP 2 Quakers Hill CP 1 EP Nth 2 EP Sth 1 Dean Park

EPSth1 would involve the construction of 17km of new road, COST/AFFORDABILITY traversing an area of the greatest geological complexity along Based on preliminary cost estimates the construction costs of the Bells Line of Road corridor.At least three major bridges – the project between Marangaroo and the Westlink M7 at across the Hawkesbury, Grose River and Devils Hole Creek – Dean Park would be $3.015 billion. would be required, plus many creek-spanning structures. Due to the geotechnical issues in some parts of the route and Several deep cuttings (30-60m) would be needed to achieve the likelihood of the need for substantial structures across the satisfactory grades as the road ascends the Lapstone Hawkesbury/Nepean floodplain, this cost estimate could Monocline escarpment north of Bowen Mountain. increase. It is expected that the geotechnical conditions will be as severe The issue of cost and affordability is a major constraint for as any previously encountered in the Sydney region, and would Government.The amount of money required for this project add greatly to construction costs. is very large, with benefits that fall short of breaking even with costs. It would be difficult to justify such expenditure on a marginal project.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATED PROJECT COSTS

PRECINCT ESTIMATED PROJECT COSTS – $M

EASTERN TO RICHMOND ROAD 727*

CENTRAL 1,174

WESTERN 1,114*

TOTAL COSTS 3,015

Note: Tunnel costs would make up approximately $170 to 200 million of the central precinct concept. *A typographical error had the dollar value estimates for the Eastern to Richmond Road and Western precincts transposed.This was corrected in June 2008.

12 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Selection of the preferred option

The options were considered against the project objectives, taking into account the key constraints and benefits. A structured approach was used to assist in the decision making process.This and other analyses resulted in the identification of a preferred four-lane upgrade option.

ROUTE SELECTION PROCESS Environmental issues. After the constraints were identified, assessment of the four- Transport efficiency. lane options required a consistent set of criteria against which Regional development. each option could be evaluated. These criteria needed to The break-up of the weight scenarios can be seen in the table ensure the major issues associated with the routes and their at the bottom of the page. impacts were adequately addressed.The criteria used were:

Environmental and social impacts. PREFERRED OPTION Engineering factors, such as constructability. The preferred option can be seen in the map over the page. Transport issues, such as corridor requirements. Western Precinct Construction issues. In the Western Precinct, the preferred option involves a high- Regional development and economic speed road link bypassing Lithgow to the north (Option returns to the community. WPNth1). Financial returns to a private developer. WPNth1 was the preferred option under all three Options were considered against the criteria and additional weighting scenarios. sub-criteria, under a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) framework This option had less steep grades, only minor creek to assist in deciding on a preferred option. The MCA approach crossings and would integrate more effectively with allowed a systematic comparison of a range of options with a any proposals for an airport at Newnes Plateau. view to selecting a preferred option. The MCA process, However, there will be significant impacts on native combined with specialist investigations, enabled more objective vegetation with a likely follow-on impact on habitat assessment of options and a more robust process. of threatened species.These issues would need to To enable the process to be more robust, sets of weights be addressed through the EIS process. (the importance of one criteria in comparison with another) were developed. Weighting sets were developed to reflect emphasis on:

WEIGHT SCENARIOS

TRANSPORT/TECHNICAL ENVIRONMENTAL REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CATEGORY / CRITERIA WEIGHTS WEIGHTS WEIGHTS

ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL 25 10 10

TRANSPORT ISSUES 20 20 40

ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIAL IMPACTS 20 30 5

CONSTRUCTION ISSUES 20 15 30 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND 10 20 30 ECONOMIC RETURNS TO COMMUNITY

FINANCIAL RETURNS TO DEVELOPER 5 5 5

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 13 Preferred option

Western Precinct Central Precinct Eastern Precinct

WOLLEMI NATIONAL PARK

BLUE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK

Marrangaroo Newnes Junction Lithgow Bilpin Bell Kurrajong Heights Mount Tomah Kurrajong Hartley Berambing Kurmond Bowen Mountain Grose Vale Windsor Mount Victoria BLUE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK Agnes Banks Richmond LEGEND Blackheath NPWS Estate Boundary M7 West Link (WSO) Network Connection Katoomba Springwood Marsden Park Road Wentworth Falls Rail Hazelbrook Dean Park Blaxland DESIGN OPTIONS Penrith CP 1 EP Nth 2 WP Nth1 0510 N Kilometres

Central Precinct It should also be noted that the environmental impacts In the Central Precinct, the preferred option involves a high- in this precinct might present an insurmountable blockage speed road link with lower speed sections including Mt Tomah to the approval of this significant upgrade. Both CP1 (Option CP1A). and CP2 would require substantial incursion into Much of the Central Precinct has an existing alignment National Parks and World Heritage areas. With marginal that enables 100km/hr travel.There are some key areas project justification, it will be difficult to demonstrate and communities that require a much lower travel speed. that the regional development benefits of the project outweigh the environmental costs. For this precinct, it was preferred to adopt the design principle of designing the upgrade to the high-speed The preferred option includes bypasses of towns standard for as much of the route as practicable such as Berambing and Bilpin. and adopting a lower standard where there are Eastern Precinct significant constraints. In the Eastern Precinct, the lower-speed option (EPNth2) A cost benefit analysis was done on the provision generally along the existing alignment would be preferred. of a tunnel at Mt Tomah.As similar diversion of traffic This enables better servicing of existing local traffic needs from Great Western Highway would be achieved and enables effective integration with the likely future with or without the tunnel and there was the risk expansion of residential development in the area. of cost over-run associated with the tunnel, the cost A bypass of Richmond and North Richmond is required benefit analysis indicated that it was not worth pursuing and this would connect with any Richmond Road upgrade. this option.This would result in a steep section of four-lane road at Mt Tomah but this was not expected to significantly affect the attractiveness of the road.

14 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary Need and justification

Due to the high cost of constructing a four-lane Bells Line of Road upgrade and the existing low travel demand for that route, communities in the Central West are of the opinion that traditional economic analysis carried out on major transport infrastructure does not provide an accurate assessment of the perceived regional development needs for the project. As part of this study, the regional development benefits were considered in a wider economic assessment.

REGIONAL GROWTH ISSUES Existing Bells Line of Road Transport demand is linked to changes in economic activity in a region. One of the key perceived needs for this project is that the Central West region (and beyond) is constrained in reaching its growth potential by the lack of suitable freight transport access across the Blue Mountains. Traditional road user cost benefit analysis focuses on the transport user costs and benefits (i.e what time savings, operating cost savings and accident savings are gained from the project development relative to the baseline scenario (i.e comparing the project and the ‘do nothing’ scenarios). This approach is designed for choosing between options or routes once the level of demand has been determined. Under this approach benefits from regional development are Determining the wider impacts, such as regional economic usually analysed in two ways: development effects, may be important in determining the Shifting existing traffic flows onto the improved access overall level of demand for a transport corridor. Evidence from corridor to generate user benefits. the development of regional areas in the USA, involving transport access across the Rockies, indicates that improved Adding a component for ‘induced’ demand (that is trips transport access was a important common factor in facilitating that currently do not take place). these regions’ growth. Many transport projects either urban, or regional / rural often On this basis, adequate transport access is a necessary have wider strategic reasons as part of their justification. In condition for improved regional development but other regard to regional development, the level of demand may be conditions also need to be present for improved regional currently constrained significantly by the lack of transport growth to occur and be sustained once a transport constraint access. is overcome. Key factors include resource endowment, Addressing the constraint can improve the overall economic diversification of the regional economy, labour costs and activity (e.g. the lowering of transport costs could lead to the availability and the size of markets. export/import of products in a region for which trade is currently not cost effective). GROWTH SCENARIOS From a regional development perspective, this needs to be The regional benefits to the Central West of providing an assessed ‘up front’ in the economic assessment. Consideration upgraded four-lane road across the Blue Mountains along the of these wider impacts then leads to an improved two-stage Bells Line of Road alignment has been taken into account by process of assessment: the consideration of a range of potential regional growth: Determination of the overall level of demand at the macro Based on current growth trends. level, including inclusion of regional development. Assuming higher levels of regional development could Use of cost benefit analysis to select between route take place as a result of improved transport provision. options at this determined level of demand.

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 15 The assumed growth in the region was based on a review share of this development.This has occurred on the of development by region and sub-region and by industry Central Coast and Hunter regions in particular, and sector. The growth in car trips was related to population and under this scenario the Central West benefits as it is employment increases and growth in road freight to GDP another ‘adjacent region’ given the existence of suitable growth using historical data. conditions for increased growth. The key growth and traffic assumptions for the two scenarios – Overspill impacts would first occur in the eastern part are shown in the following two tables. of the Central West region (Orange-Bathurst-Blayney- The trend growth scenario is based upon emerging trends for Oberon-Lithgow) as this sub region is closest to the the Central West noting that: Sydney basin. There is evidence that provision of adequate road – Initial overspill effects would be one of the initial catalysts infrastructure allows trend growth to improve. in creating internally generated regional growth as Department of Planning forecasts do not allow for the employment and resident population increase above effects in infrastructure developments on growth. ‘critical mass’ levels. The high growth scenario requires that the Central West – Other industries such as tourism are assumed to play becomes a significant centre of economic growth a key role in the region’s economic development under amongst the regions in NSW.This could occur for this scenario. the following reasons: It should be emphasised that the high growth scenario would – Overspill economic impacts from the Sydney Basin. be very difficult to achieve even with an upgraded transport As the Sydney Basin becomes more congested and the link. It would require a doubling of the region’s population cost of land use for development purposes rises further, over the next 30 years, in contrast to the existing levels of adjacent regions, such as the Central West take up a economic and population growth.

‘TREND’ GROWTH SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS

PERCENT PER ANNUM AVERAGE POPULATION REGIONAL GDP GROWTH PER ANNUM GROWTH1 PER ANNUM CROSS MOUNTAIN TRIPS GROWTH

CARS TRUCK RAIL

2003-11 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%

2011-21 1% 2% 2% 4% 2%

2021-31 1% 1.5% 2% 4% 1%

2031-41 0.5% 1% 1% 3% 0%

(1) Growth for Central West Region including adjustment for Sydney Basin growth impacts 2. It is assumed that no major investment will take place on the Main Western Rail Line over the study period. Rail freight would continue, assisted by minor capacity improvements. Rail freight growth after 2020 will fall and road will increase its mode share as a result, particularly for general freight

HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS

PERCENT PER ANNUM AVERAGE POPULATION REGIONAL GDP CROSS MOUNTAIN TRIPS GROWTH GROWTH PER ANNUM GROWTH2 PER ANNUM

CARS TRUCK RAIL

2003-11 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%

2011-21 3% 5% 8% 7% 2%

2021-31 3% 4% 6% 7% 1%

2031-41 1% 2% 3% 6% 0%

(2) Growth for Central West Region including adjustment for Sydney Basin growth impacts

16 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary ECONOMIC ANALYSIS RESULTS improved Great Western Highway are likely to be more The two growth scenarios were applied to the preferred justified economically than the options assessed to date. upgrade option. For the project to ‘break-even’ in terms of quantified net Using a 30-year evaluation period following the completion of benefits, the Central West would have to attract additional construction (assumed to be in 2011), the preliminary results regional benefits that would result in: of the Road User Cost Benefit Analysis (RUCBA) are shown in Trend growth scenario – an extra 270% of measured the table below. road user benefits for the preferred concept. High growth scenario – an extra 140% of measured ECONOMIC FINDINGS road user benefits for the preferred concept. The conclusions of the regional economic analysis were: A preliminary financial analysis was undertaken to determine None of the four-lane, B-Double capable options are the potential for private investment in the project.The analysis justifiable in terms of the road user net benefit analysis. indicated that the project is highly unlikely to be self-funding The lower design speed options perform marginally better from toll revenues that are acceptable to road users. For economically than the higher design speed option and are instance, in the trend growth scenario, it is estimated that toll slightly more affordable. levels of over $150 for cars ($300 for trucks) per trip would The project could become marginally economically justified be required to achieve a 7% real rate of return on the if the Central West Region becomes a major growth centre preferred option.To enable tolls of $20 for cars and $40 for in NSW (with population and employment doubling in the trucks the Government would need to contribute $1.75-$2.22 next 30 years) and additional significant regional benefits billion, depending on the regional growth scenario. could be achieved and included as benefit of the project. The clear conclusion is that the preferred four-lane, B-Double Other lower cost options which allow B-Double access capable option is not justified on economic or regional across the mountains and which also allow for an development grounds.

RESULTS OF THE PRELIMINARY ROAD USER COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS (RUCBA)

TREND GROWTH HIGH GROWTH

PREFERRED CONCEPT PREFERRED CONCEPT

CAPITAL COST ($ MILL) 3,015 3,015

INCREMENTAL PRESENT VALUES ($M AT 7% DISCOUNT RATE)

CAPITAL COST 2,238 2,238

RESIDUAL VALUE - 63 - 63

RECURRENT COSTS 249 249

TOTAL COST 2,424 2,424

VEHICLE OPERATING COST SAVINGS 179 264

TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS 371 569

ACCIDENT COST SAVINGS 132 204

TOTAL SAVINGS 682 1,037

NPV1 ($M) -1,741 -1,387

BCR2 0.3 0.4

FYRR 3 (%) 2 2

NPV/I 4 - 0.8 - 0.6

(1) Net Present Value (may not correspond to the difference between total savings and total cost due to rounding) (2) Benefit Cost Ratio (3) First Year Rate of Return (4) Ratio of NPV over Capital Cost

Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary 17 Conclusions

The Bells Line of Road corridor study concluded that:

The Main Western Rail Line over the Blue Mountains It is highly unlikely that private investment would be could be upgraded but any upgrade would be unlikely forthcoming to progress this project without significant to deliver significant benefits without major upgrades government funding. east of Penrith and west of Lithgow. All of the four-lane, B-Double road upgrade options, All of the road upgrade options examined are feasible including the preferred option would have significant from an engineering perspective. environmental, social impacts. None of the four-lane, B-Double road upgrade options Reserving a road corridor to enable future upgrade examined appear feasible from an economic or financial works along BloR is complex and is likely to result in perspective for a range of growth assumptions. the need for detailed and comprehensive environmental All of the four-lane B-Double capable upgrade options assessment and approval from the Commonwealth and would require the full regional and economic State governments. It is also likely to required funding development growth potential of the Central West for property acquisition of approximately $230 million region to be realised over the next 30 years for the in 2004 dollars. project to progress towards being justified economically.

18 Bells Line of Road corridor study Summary

RTA/Pub. 05.283 ISBN 1920-907556