Earnings Trades Part 2 2019‐08‐19
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EARNINGS TRADES PART 2 2019‐08‐19 RDO SFFxO Traders Meetup (Raleigh Durham Open Stocks Futures FX OiOptions TdTraders ) PRIOR TALK 2018‐05‐23 Dan Queen– Background • Product Management for ITT, Alcatel‐Lucent, now Nokia – (Electrical Engineer by training‐Marketing) • Retired 2012, started trading full time, married, 3 kids, 2 Gd • Tried various trading or studied methods – IBD canslim, Dailygraphs, Vectorvest, Wisetrade, OptionMONSTER … – Opened Datek Marggp,in Acct 2002=>TDA Sept 2002, OppptionXpress =>Schawb, Fidelity IRA – Watched CNBC, Cramer’s books/TV, Barrons, AAII … – Investools couse 2011, Reading and Study – 2012 TDA Trader TV clicked on Tastytrade and ShadowTrader …. – Today options trades are done on tos, tastyworks and none since last time on Fidelity which is a very limited platform 2 Last talk 5‐23‐2018 Earnings Tradlde Presentation outline • Market Maker Move (MMM) • Implied Volatilty (IV), IVRank, IVPercentile • Probability of touch • thinkorswim (tos) Platform use set‐ups • TdTrade se t‐up • Chart examples • Results YTD of earnings trades • Q&A 3 Today’s Earnings Tradlde Presentation outline • Review what an earnings trade is • How to find earnings trades using Excel. – Download stocks with upcoming earning – Remove ones without options – Remove low priced stocks – Note stocks in certain sectors to avoid – Rank order by opportunity • Defending trades gone wrong – Rolling untested side to collect additional premium depending on DTE – Roll out in time and wait to be right – Close trade when loss is 2x credit collected 4 Thanks to Tom Sosnoff Thkhanks to Bi ll Gates Exce l VisiCalc created by Dan Bricklin, Software Arts withBob Frankston 5 Trading Style • Strategic • Seller of premium • Options not stocks • Contrary • TdTrade sma ll • Defend trades – 2x or 3x the loss – Or …… Until the stock beats you. 6 Why ItradeearningsI trade earnings • 2014 When I started trading frequently it was the only time I could collect any premium • See the results quickly , late afternoon Mon‐ Thur and close the next day or two. • HdiHave more trading occurrences Watching; little Need Batting Practice improvement of Learn by doing decision ability 7 Experience =Number of occurances Option Traddding and some ana logies 8 How • Trade from the short side. Sell Strangles or Iron condors in the case of high priced stocks, ~Delta Neutral • Place the trade close to day’s end for earnings after the close and before next day’s market open. • Profit by the IV crush after earning announcement is released. Buy back position at profit 9 SPY 2004‐20190812 Weekly Bars 2019 2017 Flat for 2004 Year Avg IV ~17% since 2011 = = = = = https://www.macrotrends.net/2603/vix‐volatility‐index‐historical‐chart 10 Volatility • Imppy()ylied Volatility (IV) is determined by the current option contracts pricing on a particular stock or future. It is represented as a percentage that indicates the annualized expected one standard deviation range for the stock based on the option prices. For example, an IV of 25% on a $200 st ock would represent a one st and ard deviation range of $50 over the next year. • IV Rank • IV Percentile 11 Difference between IV Rank IV Percentile https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options‐jive/episodes/difference‐between‐iv‐rank‐and‐iv‐percentile‐02‐19‐2016 12 IV Percentile 13 IV Collapse after earnings announcements OJ_GuideToTradingEarnings_170427.pdf 14 tos chart showing IV, IV Rank, IV Percentile earnings est‐act and time SEE thinkscript at end of presentation, show edit study Telephone =Conf Call Lighbhtbu lb= Earnings Annoc IV IVR IVP IVP IV 15 ATT IV Drop After Earnings Example 7/25/17 10/24/17 1/31/18 4/25/18 PRICE IV 16 The AAP trade 8/12 ‐8/13/2019 17 AAP Earnings 8/13 6:30am screenshot ~8:30 am IVR76 IVP83 IV43 18 AAP 8:05 AM 1 ‐min Bars IV43 19 AAP 10:48 1‐min Bars, Short 125P/160C 20‐Sept Sold @ 3.35 Buy @ $1.60 10:43am 10% Return on BPR IV drop 20 How to build a Earnings Calendar Spreadsheet • Go to tos calendar • Select the days desired After Day and Before Day • Export each csv file and merge them • Add column formulas for MMM, strike points volume, price Before After. 3 min effort so far • Sort to remove stocks with no options, low priced and volume stocks 2.5 min additional • Copy into watchlist,,p then export to csv file Stk avg volume, correl volsizzle, HTB/ETB, Industry, Sub‐Ind,sector, div freq. 3 min additional • ObOpen above csv file. Open sprea ds hee t 2 an d copy s toc ks, then selected static values. Save both files with unique names. 2 min additional or 10‐12 min total. 21 Show live tos Calendar examples here See attached Excel spreadsheet 2019‐08‐20‐21‐Calendar.xlsx 22 Tastyworks Earnings Watchlist (Tastypicksnews lf)letter is free) 23 Building Custom element After the market close = BarsTilEarnATM CUSTOM4 input length=20; def xx = ‐getEventOffset(Events.EARNINGS); def yy = sum(HasEarnings(type = EarningTime.AFTER_MARKET),length)[‐length +1] > 0; plot x= xx+yy*5;*.5; Before the Market Opens = BarsTilEarnANY CUSTOM5 input length=20; def xx = ‐getEventOffset(Events.EARNINGS); def yy = sum(HasEarnings(type = EarningTime.Any),length)[‐length +1] > 0; plot x= xx+yy*.5; barsb 24 What is Market Maker Move ( MMM ) • MMM, or Market Maker Move, measures the expected magnitude of price movement based on market volatility . It measures the implied move based on volatility differential between the front and back month. The MMM helps to identify the implied move due to an event between now and the front month expiration (if an event exists). • http://tlc.thinkorswim.com/center/faq/general.html#q_01111111111119 25 Market Maker Move ( MMM ) • Expected move is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of implied volatility for binary events. We use this calculation on the day before the binary event or very close to the expiration date. The expected move of an stock for a binary event can be found by calculating 85% of the value of the front month at the money (ATM) straddle. Add the price of the front month ATM call and the price of the front month ATM put, then multiply this value by 85%. Another easy way to calculate the expected move for a binary event is to take the ATM straddle, plus the 1st OTM strangle and then divide the sum by 2. We only use this for a binary event because the accuracy of premium decay and all of the variables associated with implied volatility are too rich to accurately reflect expected move for a longer time period . • https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn/expected‐move 20180502 26 Front‐Back Month IV Difference MMM location Frt mth less than back mth therefore no MMM shown (data 20180518) 27 Probability of touch 2x Prob ITM or Deldlta during tra de 16_04_08_Probabilty_of_Touch‐_Realistic_Expectations_(MM)_rev.pdf 28 Probability of touch (cont) 29 Guide To Trading Earnings OJ_GuideToTradingEarnings_170427.pdf 30 Example: TWTR 4/24 ‐4/25/2018 31 Example: TWTR IV DROP 3 MIN IN 9:33:42 am .7129 .5805 32 PLCE – TRADE NEAR MKT CLOSE Trade time 14:28:37 A little early, note IV increase into close. Try 3:30 EST 33 The Plan • Learn the strategy and build your own trades. • Be able to explain the trade. • You controldl trade entry, see opportun ity o f your advantage. • Size the trade 1‐2% of portfolio • Take ppgrofit at 50% for strangles and 25% for straddles • Control loss at 2 times the credit collected 34 The Plan (cont) • Avoodid Bi otechn oogy(ology(BI O), Ph arm aceutcas(aceuticals (PHAM ) Industries • Avoid take over and merger stocks • Understand the limitations IRA vs Margin accts • Nobodyyyg knows anything • I do not know anything, my opinion does not matter • The math works! ((gwith enough occurrences ) – Insurance co, Casinos, Banks loan money … • Keepp, a Journal, record credit/debit for ever ypy position 35 Market Awareness • What is the level of VIX • Individual stocks follow • Ris ing t ide w ill lift a ll boats • Stock all time high, low, or mid range • Center trade? • Regular expirations more liquid than weeklies 36 Market awareness From tos chat room Shadow Trader select “Watch” Tab. 37 Trade set up and Results • Earning trade the near close the day before earnings announcements • Tig ht s toc k bid‐ask spread s, the tig ht op tion B/A on atmstiktrikes. • Highest IVR+IVP with the following IVR>50, IVP 75 • At least 15% difference between Front Mth and Back Mth IV • 500K or more avg daily shares traded • Select short strangle strikes 1.5 the MMM, Check the open interest • Most brokers (tos,TDA,Fidelity,Schawb…) require IRA accounts buying a further OTM call strike to define risk. Tastyworks allows naked short calls in IRAs cash secured • For high priced stocks, Iron Condors traded with same short strikes above and IRA accounts • Buy back “to close” the trade next am. Place GTC order at your target profit level • Excel win loss – I am offering this as my experience and not a recommendation of any future trades. 38 Closed Trades Cumulative $ 20180105‐20190814 $180,000.00 180 $160,000.00 160 $140,000.00 140 $120, 000.00 120 $100,000.00 100 Cuml $ $80, 000.00 80 5‐ Roll VIX‐cls $60,000.00 60 $40,000.00 40 $20,000.00 20 $‐ 0 39 INVERSION ‐ a defense tactic Inversion refers to selling puts above calls, or calls below puts, when managmanaginging a short position. Inverted strategies are rare, avoid them unless they are absolutely necessary and increase our probability of success.