Contents The Tocsin | Issue 6, 2018.

Editorial | 3 Nick Dyrenfurth on Tim Soutphommasane – Patriotism and Leadership | 4 Budget 2019 | Page 8 Nick Dyrenfurth – Budget 2019: Back to the future | 8 Geoff Gallop – Rediscovering Anthony Crosland | 9 Remy Davies – A neo-liberal Trojan Horse | 12 Gursewak Singh – Great Debate: A Universal Basic Income? |14 Book Review by Janet McCalman – Sally McManus, On Fairness | 16 Patrick Kennedy – Broken | 17 Simon Miller – Flying under the radar |18 Geoff Gallop revisits Getting to know … JCRC Committee of Management Anthony Crosland | Page 9 member Mary Easson |20 Nick Dyrenfurth – It’s time to #changethestats | 22 Paul Strangio – Massachusetts Down Under |23 In case you missed it – highlights from our recent events | 25 JCRC in the news | 26

Paul Strangio explains Victorian Labor’s ‘Danslide’ | Page 23

The Tocsin, Flagship Publication of the Research Centre. Issue 6, 2018. Copyright © 2018 All rights reserved. Editor: Nick Dyrenfurth | [email protected] www.curtinrc.org www.facebook.com/curtinrc/ twitter.com/curtin_rc Editorial

Executive Director, Dr Nick Dyrenfurth

This is a defining year for Australian . With a federal election in months our nation can scarcely afford another three years of chaotic, divisive review the 2019/20 Budget and look ahead to the election government chipping away at the fair go Australian way – details are included elsewhere in this edition and at our of life. Wages growth is non-existent and inequality webpage. Stay tuned for more news on a range of other historically high. Economic insecurity is tearing at our exciting events and publications. nation’s social fabric. In 2018 we were proud to have seen a number of our policy ideas aimed at addressing But to fight the good fight we need your renewed these issues backed by the federal Labor Party – our bold support in 2019. Signing up will help us fund the research superannuation reforms and proposal for employee to prosecute reformist ideas and spread our social representation on company boards. In 2019 the battle of democratic message of hope and opportunity for all. It ideas has never been more important to the fortunes of provides exclusive access to all of our reports and The working Australians. Tocsin. Together we can stop multi-millionaire backed right-wing reactionaries outspending social democrats The John Curtin Research Centre has been in the thick in the battle of ideas. If you have not yet signed up to of the battle of ideas, including our annual John Curtin fight the battle of ideas please consider doing so: www. Lecture delivered by Professor Tim Soutphommasane. curtinrc.org/support. Tim’s thoughtful and widely reported address urged social democrats to pursue patriotic leadership in a In unity, time of resurgent populist right-wing politics – it is reproduced in this the sixth edition of The Tocsin. In February we released our latest report #changethestats: a new way of talking about unemployment. The report Dr Nick Dyrenfurth generated considerable debate and its recommendation Editor of The Tocsin of a new ‘living wage’ has been picked up by Labor leader Executive Director, John Curtin Research Centre .

In this edition you will also find an exploration of the big ideas of Anthony Crosland, the British social democratic giant written by former Western Australian Premier Geoff Gallop. Renowned political commentator Paul Strangio reviews the 2018 Victorian state election in his astute piece ‘Massachusetts Down Under’. We are also delighted to host our first ‘Great Debate’ over the virtues of a Universal Basic Income between two emerging young writers Gursewak Singh and Remy Davies. Plus we publish articles by Simon Miller on a fair go for airline pilots, yours truly makes the case for employee representation on banking boards and writes on Budget 2019, while we publish young writer Patrick Kennedy’s heartfelt take on tackling domestic violence.

We have much more in store for 2019. On April 3 we join with other centre-left thinktanks – the , Per Capita and McKell Institute – to

3 Patriotism and leadership Tim Soutphommasane uses his John Curtin Lecture to warn of the threat of a race election

deluded to insist that national identities had been made It is truly an honour to deliver a lecture named after obsolete. But Orwell’s characterisation of the sensibility a man many would consider the greatest of our prime of patriotism still resonates. Loving your country ministers. John Curtin was a leader who embodied needn’t mean an aggressive nationalism. Even so, it’s not for Australians decency and courage – but most of all, enough, in my view, for there to be merely a patriotism patriotism. Previous ages may perhaps have been more that is defensive. It must also be forward-looking. It isn’t civil in the conduct of its politics. But it is telling that, about defending one’s country, but advancing it. Not in when Arthur Fadden in October “John Curtin was a leader a jingoistic way, but with maturity 1941 resigned as Prime Minister and generosity. after losing a vote in the House who embodied for Australians of Representatives, opening the decency and courage – Patriotism way for John Curtin to form government, he issued a public but most of all, patriotism … Ten years ago, while completing statement praising the ‘complete Yet Curtin wasn’t only a my doctoral studies in England, I patriotism’ of his opponent and finished what was my first book, successor. Many of us, of course, wartime prime minister who titled Reclaiming Patriotism. would associate Curtin’s patriotism united the nation in its most Its thesis was that Australian with wartime necessity. ‘Without progressives – by which I meant any inhibitions of any kind’, as he difficult hours, when ’ssocial democrats and those on the said in 1941 following the fall of national survival was at stake. centre-left – needed to reclaim Singapore, ‘I make it quite clear that patriotism and to have a nation- Australia looks to America, free He was also a prime minister building political agenda. At the of any pangs as to our traditional who laid the foundations for time I’d been writing, the memories links or kinship with the United of the Howard years were still fresh. Kingdom.’ It was a stance of postwar reconstruction Australian progressives remained national independence that enraged and for three decades of shell-shocked by the political conservatives and those with an shifts towards conservative and imperial cast of mind. Yet Curtin economic prosperity.” atavistic nationalism. The images wasn’t only a wartime prime minister who united the of the Cronulla race riot from 2005 were imprinted on nation in its most difficult hours, when Australia’s national the national psyche. People were still getting used to survival was at stake. He was also a prime minister who conspicuous public waving of the national flag and the laid the foundations for postwar reconstruction and for sporting of southern cross tattoos. The new nationalism three decades of economic prosperity. It is this two-sided was also there in the politics of asylum, and the muscular nature of patriotism and leadership that I want to reflect assertion of national sovereignty. It was a nationalism on this evening. directed as much at keeping out people of a certain kind – especially those who may be coming by boat – as it was It is natural for us to think of patriotic leadership at making those who were permitted to arrive fit a certain as a response to necessity. We may think of patriotism mould of citizenship. It was no accident that when the as defensive, something activated when the country is Howard Government introduced a new citizenship test, endangered or under threat. Patriotism, as George Orwell it initially included questions about Australian values and wrote, means a devotion to one’s country, which one Don Bradman. believes to be the best in the world but has no wish to force upon others. But it ‘is of its nature defensive, both My view ten years ago was that it was too easy – and militarily and culturally’. This is what sets it apart from ultimately wrong – to abandon patriotism. Yes, there was nationalism, which is inseparable from the desire for a danger that mixing politics with patriotism would lead power. We can quibble with Orwell’s characterisation. It’s to belligerent nationalism. But the greater danger was to difficult to separate a love of country from nationhood. surrender the idea of the nation to extreme or reactionary The nation-state remains the fundamental unit of political elements of our society. An inclusive and critical patriotism self-determination, even in a globalised world. The rise of was the best inoculation against jingoism. Today, the nationalist populism only confirms that we are living in idea of reclaiming patriotism remains as urgent as it was an age of nationalism. Liberal cosmopolitans have been a decade ago. The fears I held back then have, to some

4 extent, materialised. The value of patriotism has indeed pride compulsory. Public officials can’t dictate what form become seized upon by those on the fringe. Neo-Nazi and patriotism must take. There are places where a sanctioned white supremacist groups readily speak in the language patriotism is commonplace. An obvious example is of patriotism. They like to describe themselves as patriots America. Think of flags mounted on front porches, school who wish to defend our national culture and way of life. children pledging their allegiance every morning, and It’s a description that can be reinforced by sections of politicians sporting a national flag pin on their lapel. the media. When far-right nationalist extremists have Yet our sensibilities are different from the American. As been confronted, those on the other side have frequently Australians, we haven’t tended to conduct overt displays been described as anti-fascist protestors on the leftist of patriotism. Our style is more typically laconic and fringe. Often there is a presentation of moral equivalence understated. It’s one reason why any suggestion about between so-called patriotic movements on one hand and having dress codes at citizenship ceremonies, as made by anti-racism movements on the other. Scott Morrison last month, sounds off-key.

On all this, let’s never lose our moral clarity. Racism While it’s a good thing for us to think and act must never become described as patriotic. In the public patriotically, our leaders must not – and cannot – impose mind, anti-racism must never become counterposed to patriotic feeling. Orwell would say that crosses the line into patriotism. aggressive nationalism. As we all know, nationalism offers no solutions to our most complex national challenges -- Because if we are to counter extremism, it is best challenges that require hard-headed national leadership. done through the centre. Let’s be clear: the vast majority of Australians do not endorse racial supremacism or Leadership white nationalism. The vast majority of us would find it offensive to our very conception of what it means to a be Let me say a little more now about leadership. We member of contemporary Australia. It’s time, however, rightly expect our political leaders to set the tone and to push back against the insidious framing of patriotism. shape the mood of the nation. As once said, When we talk about patriotism, we shouldn’t have to when the government changes, the nation changes. Few of clarify that what aren’t talking “We may think of patriotism as us would say we have had political about an aggressive national pride. leadership that has inspired or We shouldn’t have to explain that defensive, something activated uplifted us. This isn’t just about we aren’t talking about a belief in when the country is endangered the vibe. It’s about something the national identity being defined systemic. For a number of years by race or blood. That shouldn’t or under threat. Patriotism, now, the Lowy Institute’s annual be the default. Rather, the default as George Orwell wrote, poll of attitudes has shown a deep when we talk about patriotism complacency about democracy. should be this: a love of country means a devotion to one’s Last year, the Lowy Institute found that is democratic and egalitarian; country, which one believes that only 47 per cent of Australians an affection for this place that aged 18-44 agreed that ‘democracy includes those of different races to be the best in the world is preferable to any other kind of and backgrounds; a civic pride that but has no wish to force upon government’. There is an alarming is about living up to the best of number, particularly in that age our traditions. That should be the others ... Loving your country range of 18-44, who believe that a default. That should be what people needn’t mean an aggressive non-democratic government can understand as patriotism. be preferable or who are indifferent nationalism. Even so, it’s not to the kind of government we This doesn’t mean for a moment enough, in my view, for there have. It’s a sentiment that can also that our patriotic feelings can’t be detected in some other liberal come in many forms. An Australian to be merely a patriotism that democracies. Some may say such identity can be as much about a is defensive. It must also be sentiments have nothing directly connection with the landscape, to do with political leadership. or about history and family, as it forward-looking. It isn’t But I would say it isn’t drawing a is something expressed in civic about defending one’s country, long bow to suggest democratic and democratic forms. There will disillusionment is connected with be many nuances to how people but advancing it. Not in people’s feelings about political love their country. None of that a jingoistic way, but with leadership. Our feelings towards detracts from patriotism. We don’t leaders can rub off, too, on how we need to agree on everything about maturity and generosity.” feel the country is going. Because what makes this place special. But the civic character of when our country is at its best, our democratic institutions patriotism – a commitment to the country as a citizen, the should give us a sense of pride. They should inspire shared responsibilities of citizenship – is something that loyalty and sacrifice. They should embody our collective excludes or divides none of us. It is the quality that can aspirations: fairness, equality, opportunity for all. They unify us all. In reality, of course, it doesn’t always turn out must, as I’ve said, go to the heart of our patriotism. that way. When patriotism and politics mix, we can end up with a distorted love of country. You can’t make national Today, however, our politics and democracy are

5 about the least likely sources of patriotic inspiration. It’s currently collects. Our diversity can be measured based understandable. If you just look at the national parliament, on birthplace and languages spoken at home; yet what we seem each week to be diving to new lows – whether our ethnic and racial makeup looks like, we can’t say with it’s dubious multi-million dollar grants or contracts, definitive certainty. We may be a multicultural society, or whether it’s the blatant abuse of parliamentary but we have found it difficult to talk about our ethnic committees for partisan campaigning. Last week we even and racial diversity. That includes the statistics. Based saw in the Parliament a physical scuffle in the lobbies and on research which I conducted with partners when I was the smearing of bodily fluids on doors. Leadership is too at Human Rights Commission, we can often the exception to the rule in this parliament. make some educated guesses. About 58 per cent of the Australian population have an Anglo-Celtic background, To be sure, leadership often comes with the times. about 18 per cent have a European (non-Anglo-Celtic) It can be the creature of circumstance. It’s no accident background, and about 21 per cent have a non-European that great leaders come in times of war or hardship; no background. When you combine that latter figure with accident that history judges leaders the 3 per cent who are Aboriginal against whether they have ushered “In this election year, there or Torres Strait Islander, we can in a new regime or epoch. This goes is every indication that the estimate that just under a quarter to the very meaning of leadership. of the Australian population has Leadership is about helping us Coalition government has a non-European background. The make sense of change, or to shake flicked the switch to fear. It is writer George Megalogenis has us into adjusting to new realities. crunched the numbers himself, too. The essence of leadership is to bring already campaigning on fear, As he describes it, while the English people together, identify what seeking to incite hysteria about represent the largest immigrant needs to be done, find a path, and group in Australia, the Chinese carry people on a shared mission. asylum seekers and border and Indian migrant groupings are Australia finds itself in a world security … Listen to what the quickly catching up. In Sydney that is rapidly changing right now and , the Chinese and – on many fronts. Climate change government is saying, and Indian migrant communities are is happening, whatever the deniers you get the impression that respectively the largest. ‘Our two might say. Technology change in largest cities have crossed the the forms of artificial intelligenceArmageddon awaits vulnerable threshold from Anglo-European and big data will upend not only Australians. And if this kind of to Eurasian’, Megalogenis suggests. industry but society as we know ‘Who we are today is Australasian.’ it. And in the realm of geopolitics, scare campaigning weren’t bad Which leads me to ask: Is our the rise of China as an economic, enough, just ask yourself this. political leadership preparing us political and military power has yet Might the fear-mongering get to understand who we are evolving to reach its peak. into? Are our leaders telling us the worse between now and the stories we need to hear to make Our society is also changing election later this year? Could sense of this? Are they preparing fast, before our very eyes. Our social us to adapt to and embrace the composition – our ethnic and racial this be just a preview of a race changes happening to our national character – is being transformed. politics put on steroids?” population? It’s often said that Australia is the most successful multicultural society in the world. Even The rise of hate those allergic to the word multicultural will still proudly declare that we are among the most successful migrant There are signs that some of our political class is telling countries in the world. It’s hard to argue our success on us a very different kind of story. Not one about Australia as multiculturalism and immigration. Few countries have a welcoming and confident nation. But rather one about an managed to conduct a national project of immigration, Australia that is fearful and anxious. In this election year, and to embrace a multicultural national identity, and there is every indication that the Coalition government has do it as Australia has done: without destructive social flicked the switch to fear. It is already campaigning on fear, division or enduring social rancour. But it’s also part of seeking to incite hysteria about asylum seekers and border the conventional wisdom that we can declare ‘Mission security. A bill to ensure asylum seekers already in Manus accomplished’ on multiculturalism. That we can take our Island and Nauru can get medical treatment in Australia, success for granted. That we don’t ever need to worry about if necessary on humanitarian grounds, has invited a new taking care of diversity. Such thinking leads us to ignore a level of alarmist rhetoric from the government. In the reality in which the face of Australia continues to change, debate about the ‘medevac’ bill in parliament, which the and rapidly so. Based on current trends, the ethnic and government lost, Senator Mathias Cormann claimed that racial diversity of our society will continue to grow. In and ‘rapists, murderers and paedophiles will … get a free pass of itself, it is not a bad thing – a multicultural society can into this country’. Deputy PM Michael McCormack has handle diversity. But it should go without saying that we claimed, ‘this is going to be able to get spivs and rapists must also understand where we are heading. and murderers on to our shores’. PM Scott Morrison has One reason we’re not good at grasping this is that there spoken of making sure Australia doesn’t wake up ‘the is a gap in the data that the Australian Bureau of Statistics beast’ of asylum seeker boat arrivals.

6 Listen to what the government is saying, and you such a view on race. If you read, watch or listen to parts get the impression that Armageddon awaits vulnerable of our national media, you’d get the impression that the Australians. And if this kind of scare campaigning real racism in Australia was ‘reverse racism’, or that the weren’t bad enough, just ask yourself this. Might the fear- real problem of hatred at the moment was supposed anti- mongering get worse between now and the election later white hatred. It’s not just a parallel universe; it’s a world this year? Could this be just a preview of a race politics that’s upside-down. In a fractured media landscape, put on steroids? If such appeals to fear are to win the outlets are seeking to monetise hatred. They are feeding government a fillip in the polls, we must anticipate the off the resentments of those in the majority who feel they likelihood of an escalation in rhetoric. We must expect are losing their position of power and privilege. Parts of more naked and blatant appeals to racism and division. our media are making it their business model to hang on We must prepare ourselves for a possible race election, to angry audiences who want to vent against so-called and all that that would involve. There have already been political correctness and against minorities who dare disturbing signs that members of our political class speak up. And there are some in our media who are only are content to play race politics. Last year, there was a too content to indulge in racist stereotyping and Trumpist brief window when it seemed that good sense had been white identity politics. Only too happy to play the victim restored. When Fraser Anning delivered his infamous when their race-baiting is called out, and to cry of ‘Final Solution’ speech to the Senate, he was almost censorship when they get criticised. There is a great irony unanimously condemned by the federal parliament. Yet in how many right-wing champions of free speech are so only two months later, when moved a fragile when they are subjected to scrutiny and criticism. motion that it’s ok to be white (a well-known slogan of They only wish to see more free speech when it involves white supremacists), her motion was supported by some bigotry. When people exercise their speech to criticise 20-odd government senators. racism, however, that becomes labelled as a suppression of free speech. We are seeing in our politics a “When political hate spirals, dangerous normalisation of racist it takes us into the realm of Conclusion hatred. Notions which must have no place in a liberal democracyfascism. Good citizens, patriotic Some may say speaking about a are now being openly entertained, citizens have always been – and rise in hate is putting it too strongly. debated, even supported in our always will be – the ultimate Hate is a strong word, after all. parliament. Arguably, some of Many associate it with organised the political middle-ground is at guardians of democracy. But extremism and racial supremacism. risk of shifting. Politicians who our political leaders are the As we have seen in recent years, have tapped into racist resentment though, there is a clear rise in and cultural fear are making it ones who must be our first line racist hate. Far-right and neo-Nazi acceptable for people to express of defence. It’s time to step up.” elements have been emboldened. racism and bigotry and justify And we must be on guard. We must such things as ordinary political opinion – rather than be on guard, too, against the insidious creep of hatred. as noxious extremism. In one sense, much of this isn’t Because there is a threat posed from within our existing new. We’ve seen it coming for some time now. There were institutions as well as from without. Racism is finding a two failed attempts by the Coalition government, under happy home both within sections of our parliament and both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, to weaken the government, and within sections of our media. Racial Discrimination Act by repealing section 18C. As George Brandis explained, in a moment of ideological To counter such hatred is an obligation of patriotism. clarity, such a change would have effectively enshrined The threat that the rise of hate poses to our society isn’t a right to be a bigot in Australia. There have been other confined to minorities and those who are most vulnerable efforts, too, to undermine the work of anti-racism. to intolerance and discrimination. The threat is posed to When efforts to weaken the substantive provisions of all of us – and to our democratic institutions. When hatred the Racial Discrimination Act failed, the government becomes acceptable, it diminishes all of us. I have warned turned its attention to weakening the office of Race recently that, if we’re not careful, the recent outburst of Discrimination Commissioner. In the final months of nationalist populism may prove to be more than just an my term at the Australian Human Rights Commission, episodic venting of anger. If we’re not careful, we may be with the support of Indigenous and multicultural seeing it give rise to the preconditions of non-democratic communities we pushed back forcefully against Christian government. When political hate spirals, it takes us into Porter’s idea of renaming the office to something the realm of fascism. Good citizens, patriotic citizens have like the Community Relations Commissioner or the always been – and always will be – the ultimate guardians Harmony Commissioner. Elsewhere, Porter has made of democracy. But our political leaders are the ones who clear that he believes the work of anti-racism doesn’t align must be our first line of defence. It’s time to step up. with the interests of so-called mainstream Australia. There remains this implied sense that This is an edited version of Professor Tim many of our political class don’t regard those Soutphommasane’s 2019 John Curtin Lecture delivered to from racial minority backgrounds to be part of the JCRC in Melbourne on 21 February. ‘mainstream Australia’. It’s not just segments of the political class who take

7 Budget 2019: Back to the future Nick Dyrenfurth on why it’s time to reinstate the debt ceiling.

spending with reductions elsewhere in the budget has been Of all the missteps, schisms and indulgences to have observed more in the breach. International comparisons characterised a chaotic five and a half years of Coalition underline its poor debt management: from 2013 onwards, rule, perhaps the most disappointing is the Abbott/ governments have been steadily repaying debt. Germany’s Turnbull/Morrison government’s laissez faire approach to fell from 81 per cent to 63.9 per cent at year’s end 2017. fiscal discipline. Ireland’s debt is down from 120 per cent to 68 per cent. New Zealand’s debt is down from 34 per cent to 31 per Before the 2013 election Tony Abbott bemoaned what he cent. called Labor’s “debt and deficit disaster”. Yet approaching the sixth and possibly last Coalition budget we are worse Yet there has never been a more exciting nor important off without any meaningful long- “… there has never been a more time to tackle debt. Numerous term investment in job-creating examples exist of largesse which infrastructure, TAFE and more exciting nor important time to could be easily cut from the budget. besides. ’s debut tackle debt. Numerous examples Take the half a billion dollars of budget is tipped to announce a taxpayer monies gifted to the Great belated surplus in 2019-20 and exist of largesse which could Barrier Reef Foundation. Think promise further surpluses in the be easily cut from the budget. how much better off the budget and next four years. This return to our debt position might be had this surplus has been built upon better Take the half a billion dollars wasteful use of taxes been avoided. than expected revenues from of taxpayer monies gifted to the Or what could have been funded: a resource companies, population Great Barrier Reef Foundation. good chunk of the fast rail proposed growth and personal income tax to link Melbourne and Geelong, paid by working Australians as Think how much better off the massive capital investment in rural well as record low interest rates budget and our debt position and regional hospital upgrades, or for government bonds. The latter, the bill to fund the prep to year measured by ten-year yields, is might be had this wasteful use 12 educations of over 7000 young estimated to represent $2bn in of taxes been avoided. Or what Australians. Dare we say real savings. This simply isn’t good investment in renewable energy. enough from a government now in could have been funded: a good its seventh year of existence. chunk of the fast rail proposed Last budget I proposed that the then Treasurer Scott Morrison To be sure, the Coalition to link Melbourne and Geelong, introduce a bipartisan National government displays a stubborn massive capital investment in Debt Commission which would unwillingness to address debt. rural and regional hospital take submissions from businesses It continues to shirk serious, of all shapes and sizes, unions, structural repair such as fixingupgrades, or the bill to fund the academics, entrepreneurs, civil capital gains tax and negative prep to year 12 educations of society organisations, state and gearing distortions on the revenue local governments and be tasked side, to say nothing of taking a over 7000 young Australians. with making recommendations on tough approach to tax avoidance by Dare we say real investment in budget repair and debt reduction giant multinationals and local big that are fair, credible and do not business. renewable energy.” place a disproportionate amount of the burden on working Australians, young or old, or our In five and a half years, the Coalition has doubled most vulnerable. the nation’s debt. Whereas most of the developed world increased their gross debt above 80 per cent of GDP Not unexpectedly he didn’t take up my offer, but it is during the GFC, Australia’s ratio was just 16.8 per cent precisely the kind of idea which could avoid such wasteful in 2013 when Labor left office. Today’s figure is 42 per and debt-expanding spending. The now PM and his cent. Australia’s gross debt numbers $543 billion, up Treasurer should seriously consider the NDC along with from $175bn. The government’s policy of banking extra another tangible move towards tackling debt: reinstating revenue generated by the economy and offsetting all new the debt ceiling as a percentage of GDP.

8 In 2013, Australia’s debt ceiling was scrapped by the bipartisan backing and go a long way to achieving surplus Abbott government with the support of the Greens in on average “over the economic cycle” or in the medium parliament, a statutory cap on government borrowings term. passed into law by then-assistant treasurer in 2008. If we are serious about keeping one eye on long-term Josh Frydenberg will almost certainly announce a fiscal responsibility, then we need the discipline of a debt surplus next Tuesday. He cannot kick the debt can down ceiling. This should be done so by fixing the ceiling as a the road for another government. This budget represents percentage of GDP, and if need be reset by the NDC, rather an opportunity for an ambitious politician such as than the government of the day. A reasonable starting Frydenberg to display long-term vision. It’s not the time point is 20 per cent, which is where health spending as a for vote buying tax cuts based on temporary revenue proportion of GDP will sit over the next decade. It will which may harm the job of debt reduction and do nothing mean we can afford to pay for what is projected to be the to stimulate wages. In a climate of weak global growth fastest growing budgetary item and avoid the scenario of and even weaker wages growth, the last thing we need is governments breaking the piggy bank to pork-barrel in a repeat of the last budget handed down by the Howard- times of electoral peril. If it right to cap tax revenue as Costello government in 2007 which sent the budget into a percentage of GDP to not exceed 23.9 per cent of GDP a structural deficit at the worst possible time. Is the man why not borrowing? A debt ceiling will incentivise savings touted as a future Liberal PM up to the task? Rebooting a over spending. The NDC’s role would take the politics out debt ceiling is a good first step. of raising or lowering the ceiling. Many Liberals support the reintroduction of the debt ceiling. It would receive Nick Dyrenfurth is Executive Director of the JCRC. Rediscovering Anthony Crosland Geoff Gallop on the enduring relevance of a social democratic intellectual giant

All involved in politics need a moral and intellectual framework within which to understand what we do and describing the essentially institutional changes required why we are doing it. To assist us are the grand theorists to realise, or at least promote, these values in practice.” and strategists of politics; left, right and centre. For those of us for whom the labels ‘centre-left’ or ‘social Crosland urged upon his labour colleagues the need to democratic’ are a good fit, Anthony Crosland (1918-1977) critically examine, in an ongoing way, the relationships is an excellent starting point as he was both a theorist that existed between the values and aspirations of the (see his classic, The Future of Socialism, 1956), and a movement and existing and/or potential political, social, practitioner (British Labour MP, “Crosland urged upon his and economic institutions and 1950-55 and 1959-1977). As MP he practices. Not surprisingly as a continued to write – amongst his labour colleagues the need former Oxford don he believed publications are two books of essays to critically examine, in an in the social sciences and took (The Conservative Enemy,1963ongoing way, the relationships public policy very seriously. Thus, and Socialism Now,1974 and an the inevitable arguments over important Fabian Tract Social that existed between the education, health, housing and Democracy in Europe, 1975). He values and aspirations of the social services, over forms of was a Minister in the Wilson and government and electoral systems, Callaghan Governments and the movement and existing and/or over planning versus the market Foreign Secretary when he died on potential political, social, and system of economic co-ordination, 19 February 1977. over private or public ownership economic institutions of the means of production, over Crucial to Crosland’s approach and practices.” the tax system, over the degree was the distinction between the of public expenditure and over a ends and means of politics. In his Future of Socialism, variety of reforms possible in industry such as schemes of he put it this way: “…the word ‘end’ is to be understood worker participation, were all part of his thinking. Such simply as describing principles or values, such as equality, an examination, for Crosland, would determine, on the or justice, or democracy, or co-operativeness, which surface at least, which of the proposals for institutional might or might not be embodied in, or determine the change were consistent with the ends desired. Whether or character of, a particular society; and the word ‘means’ as not, however, they should be actively pursued or whether

9 they were relevant to the circumstances prevailing at the time were separate issues.

This leads me on to the second distinction utilised by Crosland which, although it is less explicit, is equally important to an understanding of his politics. This is between the means considered generally as objectives and the circumstances in which they were to be proposed and implemented. This takes us to strategic thinking and its required assessment of the concrete political, social, economic and cultural context that prevails; the national state of play if you will. Such an assessment would look at the objective changes which had occurred (particularly, but not wholly, from the point of view of whether they did or did not advance centre-left ends) and the effects, if any, which these changes had on the consciousness of the chief participants in the political process. In Crosland’s case these were, first and foremost, social classes considered not just in terms of wealth and income believed it should be embraced and he had a clear view on but also in terms of status and power. This enables us to where that was the case in his Britain, but he didn’t wish build up a picture not only of what is needed to be done it to be seen in fundamentalist terms. I’m sure he would but also of what was politically possible. A strategy could have approved of the ALP’s 1921 Blackburn Amendment then be developed outlining, firstly, what particular which was built on a proper distinction between ends institutional (and other) changes should be actively and means! When dealing with the question of the ends – pursued and, secondly, any particular tactics that would “” – Crosland distinguished between be necessary to achieve them. The strategy then, would consensus values, specifically socialist values and “issues be a combination of the programme and tactics devised for the future” which had emerged as part of post-WWII to operate in the particular country and at a particular democratic politics. A summary is as follows: point in time. For Crosland political savvy wasn’t just an add-on but a required element for anyone serious about Ends social change. 1. The consensus values, hopefully to be shared by Central to his argument at this point was the belief all involved in politics: that different contexts require different responses. Certain means which could be adopted in some (a) A commitment to liberty, democracy and the countries may, for various reasons, be impossible of rule of law, not just as means to an end but as ends- attainment in other conditions. For example, in 1956 in-themselves. He was a true believer in electoral he argued that a national, centralised wage policy was, politics and the disciplines it required, in both in British conditions, ‘impractical and unwise’. And, party and the nation at large. once the various changes he had proposed were carried through he believed that ‘the whole argument would (b) Higher living standards to be achieved through then need to be re-stated, and thought out afresh’, by economic growth, as a means to more equality a ‘younger generation than mine’. Each generation, if (the seen and felt disparities in personal living you like, would have its own particular strategy for the standards being a function not only of income- furtherance of centre-left ends. Such a strategy, if it was distribution but of the absolute level of average real not to be politically impotent, needed to be sociologically income as well) and as an end-in-itself. relevant. (c) Freedom of consumer choice. As a leading revisionist in post-war Labour he applauded what the Attlee Government (1945-1951) had 2. The specifically socialist values that mark out the achieved in the economy – the nationalization of basic territory occupied by the centre-left: industries, full employment as a government objective and the extension of the welfare state and observed (a) An over-riding concern for the poor and what economic growth had meant for the working the marginalised when considering claims on class as consumers. These were runs on the board for resources. what had become a changed nation. Like his Australian counterpart, , he saw the need for (b) A belief in that degree of equality which will change, not in the ends to be sought, but in the means minimise social resentment, secure justice in social and strategy to achieve them. He was critical of those relationships and equalise opportunities. What on the Left who were fixated on public ownership as the was to be aimed for was a redistribution of income and a wider social equality which embraced the defining feature of their politics. Yes, if necessary, he 10 distribution of property, the educational system, Education) were seen as one of the lynch-pins of power and privilege in industry, indeed all that the good society. was enshrined in -old socialist dream of the classless society. 3. The mixed economy

(c) The commitment to strict social control over (a) Keynesian macroeconomic planning, full the use of the environment; in part an aspect of employment as an objective and some direct egalitarianism since the rich could often buy intervention in the economic process where it was themselves a good environment whereas the poor deemed necessary. required that the state take action on their behalf. (b) A variegated ownership pattern – nationalised 3. The issues of the future, new to the agenda: industries, competitive public enterprises, private enterprises, Co-operatives, municipalities, Trade He argued that the consensus aim of higher living Unions, and pension funds all participating standards and centre-left aim of a more equal, or alongside the private sector and all subject to the what we might we say today, fair society needed legislation and taxation laid down by the state. to be coupled with efforts to widen the degree Of interest to us here in Australia was the case he of personal freedom and cultural endeavour. He made for public share-buying on a wide front and wished to see the centre-left involved in campaigns via a national Superannuation Scheme to enable to end discrimination against homosexuals, the community to share in the benefits from reform divorce, licensing, censorship and expansion. abortion laws, and promote equality for women. He famously said: “Total abstinence and a good (c) A significant degree of public expenditure, filing-system are not now the right sign-posts both absolutely and as a share of GDP. To this to the socialist Utopia; or at least if they are, end significant tax reform of a re-distributive some of us will fall by the wayside”. sort would be required and at various times and in differing contexts he argued for higher death In considering Crosland’s account of the ends it’s clear duties, a gift tax, an annual wealth tax, a capital that he was a pluralist rather than a fundamentalist. His gains tax and a tax on advertising. most deeply held beliefs weren’t reducible to one value; rather they were composed of a set of values which, 4. A reformist, centre-left government with a coherent when attempts were made to have them embodied in egalitarian and growth strategy based on a variety of institutions, more often than not they came into conflict instruments deemed best and most appropriate for with each other. Thus, the necessity of choice. This being the times. said it was a corollary of his thinking that democracy and social equality and what was needed to achieve Although much of that Crosland proposed for them held a special place when it came to public policy the Britain of his day has stood the test of time, there and its implementation. He believed Marxists were too is much we would need to revisit given new ideas and complacent about the former, indeed often hostile with new research on what works and what doesn’t. What’s their concept of the dictatorship of the proletariat, and important to note is that this is something he understood, the Tories too complacent about the latter, with their urging his colleagues to stay up-to-date in the interests deeply held prejudices about hierarchy. of democracy and equality. He understood that the centre-left needed clear thinking at three levels: Firstly, What, then, was Crosland’s conception of the means on the values and aspirations which should form the that would best achieve the ends he believed in. Four ethical basis of commitment (the ends), secondly, on the stand out for special attention: political, social, and economic institutions and practices which embodied, or at least promoted, these values and 1. Representative democracy backed up by aspirations (the means), and thirdly, on the institutional organised labour and voluntary civic activity: re-arrangements and/or innovations as well as the overall positioning and tactics which should be actively pursued Such civic participation was not to be confused in a particular context (the strategy). Thus, Crosland with socialism, nor syndicalism with socialism. incorporated into his writing considerations from Ultimately the democratic state was the guardian social and political theory, economics, organisational of the public welfare. “There are times”, he noted theory, and political sociology. His politics was a ‘total’ “when only the despised local councillors and package, an alternative to Liberalism, Conservatism and bureaucrats stand guard on behalf of the majority”. Communism. Social democracy in other words.

2. The Welfare and Opportunity State which set Professor Geoff Gallop was Premier of Western and enforced certain minimum standards for all. Australia from 2001 to 2006. He is the author of Politics, Society, Self: Occasional Writings National Health (an Attlee achievement) and (UWA Publishing, 2012). comprehensive education (pursued as Minister for 11 A neo-liberal Trojan Horse

The UBI is bad news for working people writes Remy Davies.

eternally recur. And each time the scaremongers have Australian workers face a bleak future. We’re working been found wanting. As technology develops, new jobs, harder than ever but our jobs are being casualised. We’re industries and forms of employment have emerged. becoming ‘independent’ contractors in the gig-economy for billion-dollar businesses like Uber. Our jobs are more The second common criticism made of the UBI is insecure and our penalty rates are being cut. Less than obvious: an enormous bill. Let’s start with a model half of us work full-time although we dearly want to. Our that only paid a UBI to individuals of $23,000 a year wages no longer track with our productivity. Most of us (the same as the age pension). Income tax would need have not had a pay rise in years. Housing is unaffordable to increase 33 percentage points across the board with and energy prices are through the roof. We’re being the highest income bracket taxed at 78%. And yet many forced into a two-tier economy with knowledge workers argue that a meaningful UBI would entail a sum paid to at the top, a ‘new class’ of technocratic aristocracy. We individuals of $40-$60,000 per annum. The high cost of are approaching the dawn of the age of the ‘precariat’. any UBI, supporters argue, is countered by the argument And more importantly we’re told that our jobs — at least the system ‘will pay for itself’. A UBI ‘encourages’ people the manual repetitive ones — will be made redundant by to work more. This proposition is ludicrous to the robots and automation in coming decades. reasonable observer – giving people $50,000 a year to do nothing will encourage them to work long hours just to There’s a new idea in town that claims to solve this earn a few thousand more dollars. Granted there is merit economic crisis. It’s not exactly new although it has for the safety net and management of risk that a UBI may recently seeped into mainstream debates and taken provide; citizens may feel more empowered or encouraged on an air of respectability. It’s called a Universal Basic to study or seek out careers if they know their source of Income (UBI) – variants of it have been proposed for income is secure. Unfortunately, the most anticipated at least half a century. While we largely identify the and thorough real-life study of the UBI has recently UBI with the progressive green left (prime movers in come back with the results: a UBI does not encourage Australia are the Party), historically work. A study undertaken in Finland over three years it has been associated with the political Right. Early gave a UBI to random jobseekers and compared them proponents of variants of the UBI were neoconservatives with a controlled test group of jobseekers provided with Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Donald Rumsfeld, and regular welfare payments. The results found that those libertarian neoliberals Milton Friedman and Charles on the secure, full UBI income were no more likely to Murray. Even today it’s the core platform promise of the seek jobs than those on traditional welfare benefits. The Italian far-right populist Five Star Movement. Finnish Government promptly closed the program. So much for Nordic socialism! The UBI’s logic is simple: see all those modern problems associated with economic inequality, employment and The excessive, unsustainable cost of a UBI is worth wages? Well we can fix it: we’ll abolish work itself. On the stressing. Many think: “Yes, it costs a lot. But many surface the UBI seems to be nothing other than extended things are expensive and in the end worth it”. The critical welfare on a logic of ‘tax-and-spend’. A UBI is defined point here is less that this policy will cost 30%, 40%, or by the three simple characteristics: it’s universal (for 50% of GDP, it’s that the cost of the UBI will flow over to everyone), it’s unqualified (no activity obligations), and the national economy, a weakening of wages, reduction it’s equal (same amount paid to all without means test). to production and productivity, and undermining of income streams that would supply the UBI in the first There are obvious criticisms of the UBI. Firstly, it may place. One assumption proponents of a UBI tend to not be the case that automation takes over as many jobs as make is that a future of automation must inevitably is predicted by some doomsayers. We’re led to believe by mean less or no scarcity. For some reason they believe some futurists that the worlds of Bladerunner, and West that there will be more wealth with more robots. But World are only a decade away. It’s true that automation, the assumption that with labour being less of an input robotics, technology, and algorithms will destroy jobs, in economic production equalling more production and but they will also enable and multiply what labour can do more wealth does not add up. It’s equally likely if not more — just like they’ve done in the past. Forms of Ludditism probable that a future economy may suffer from levels of

12 economic scarcity greater than today. And a UBI does receiving a UBI. Meanwhile the large-scale taxation nothing to the fundamentals of our economic settings. revenue required to fund a UBI would be compromised The Australian economy – its businesses and workers – by falling levels of income taxation and fewer taxpayers must produce an economic profit to produce an income, sourced from drawing a taxable income in the first place. we still have to trade and compete domestically and However much proponents of a UBI spin it, Australia globally, and we still have to provide value. The demons would reach a situation where there would exist one class of debt, deficit, trade balances, and productivity will of producers and another of rentiers who accumulate plague us then just as they plague us now. income purely on their citizen or resident status. UBI would become one gigantic poverty trap. The likelihood is a UBI will do exactly what it aims to prevent: amplifying inequality and poverty, and Pollyanna proponents of UBI believe that its disenfranchising the working class. Let us look at a implementation would be without political tension scenario in which a large segment or social division. There is an of our workforce becomes “Unfortunately, the most unreality to such assumptions. redundant by automation but anticipated and thorough Consider today’s political climate. where high value labour remains real-life study of the UBI The political class is only willing a vital component of business, and to give jobseekers on Newstart, let’s leave the utopian or dystopian has recently come back with who represent a small minority of fantasy of complete automation of the results: a UBI does not the population, less than $15,000 all tasks no matter how complex a year. Proponents of the UBI to the world of science fiction. encourage work. A study however would have us believe that Australia will have a workforce undertaken in Finland the producer class would willingly that could be divided into three pay for the UBI because they will categories: a) workers who can over three years gave a in turn receive it. That is they’ll easily provide labour that is still UBI to random jobseekers endorse transfers from their own productive and viable, let’s call income because it returns monies them ‘the producers’; b) workers and compared them with to them in a much diminished who have the potential and ability a controlled test group of form. Proponents of the UBI also to provide labour that’s productive jobseekers provided with ignore push and pull factors such and viable but who need state a policy would create between assistance, ‘the potentials’; and c) regular welfare payments. The countries. Many if not most workers who cannot reasonably be results found that those on countries will never implement a assumed to provide productive and form of UBI and it is probable that viable in the new economy, ‘the the secure, full UBI income a substantial UBI payment would redundants’. The burden of funding were no more likely to seek act as an inducement to migration of a UBI will inevitably fall on the for some, in both directions. producers. Unlike a resource rent jobs than those on traditional Would our UBI’s charity end at our distribution, such as that found welfare benefits. The Finnish borders? Is it feasible, given these in Alaska, a UBI in Australia probable outcomes, to build some would come from the surplus Government promptly closed fantasy ‘UBI in one country’? product of Australian workers and the program. So much for businesses. By necessity it would Nordic socialism!” A UBI is neither feasible create a disincentive to economic nor desirable. It will entrench activity, whether to labour, across all income groups, disadvantage and perpetuate poverty. It’s a fundamentally and to investment. In simple terms there’s not much regressive policy. Economic allocation of scarce resources incentive for someone who’s working zero hours and always approaches a zero-sum phenomenon. A UBI can receiving $50,000 a year to work full time and receive a act as a trojan horse to ‘rationalise’ the economy, to princely $80,000 a year. There is little incentive or hope remove the economic distortions caused by economic here for potentials and redundants. interventions such as progressive taxation, labour market regulations and targeted welfare payments. There is a The hard truth is a UBI would make a dependent class, reason after all why neoliberal economists like Milton a large swathe of Australia dependent on the charity and Friedman so strongly support UBIs. The necessity of goodwill of others. It would not only rob workers of the government looking after the unemployed and essential meaning that comes from work and working but also role of the State in the public provision of education, lower their self-esteem and recognition from peers. Work health and an array of social goods, would be deliberately is not always but can be a key source of a person’s identity. outsourced to the let-it-rip free market. To quote the progressive think tank Per Capita: “We are inherently wired to want to create, to contribute, to make The fundamental social democratic tenets of welfare something of our lives. Most people want to provide for are solidarity, reciprocity and empowerment. We are, in themselves, rather than rely on support from the state”. the end, all in this together. This enduring ethos is the It does not seem radical to assume that the desirability of antithesis of an Australian universal basic income. work would be trumped by the false allure of passively 13 The Great Debate: A Universal Basic Income? An antipodean UBI is essential to tackling inequality, argues Gursewak Singh. the way we talk about and define unemployment we must The pace of change in our twenty-first century world also change the way we think about work. Beyond the feels unstoppable. Politics is more volatile and each election raw numbers, underemployment is having a detrimental less predictable. National economies, especially in the impact upon personal, family, and community well-being. developing world, have grown exponentially, but so has Reporting of mental health issues in workplaces is at a record the inequality dividing societies. For developed countries high, with job stress cited as the primary concern—these are such as Australia the literal face of the nation has changed often then transferred to the home where social isolation and dramatically as our population expands and diversifies. family issues arise, multiplied by financial or job insecurity. Australia is arguably heading towards a future it is not fully The 2017 census data also showed that more Australians prepared for—current policy settings won’t equip our nation than ever are undertaking unpaid work, in the form of with the big thinking we need. The transformation of our domestic work, caring for children, aged, or disabled family economy and society require radical thinking and radical members, and volunteering—all vocations that contribute solutions. A universal basic income is one such solution. to the wellbeing and operating of a functional society like While this piece will not aim to answer the question of ours yet which go unrecognised and unrewarded. funding a basic income, it seeks to generate a dialogue about why we should start thinking about such a policy—building The idea of work, which we have lived with since the the case for how a basic income might fit within the political, industrial revolution, has transformed while our framework social, and economic landscape of future Australia. of understanding work and how it fits into our lives remains unchanged since the advent of the railway and steamships. We are in the midst of a new, some say third industrial A basic income has the potential to address these issues. A revolution as the digital industry matures and new forms basic income, a form of payment from the State, enables an of employment become the norm, such as the so-called individual to meet their essential and daily needs. This can ‘gig economy’. Part-time and casual work is increasing; also be called a negative income tax where the difference full-time employment rates have continued their decline. between a person’s income and the living wage are met Underemployment is more common as more and more by the State. A universal basic income, meanwhile, is workers hold down multiple jobs. A decent wage with fundamentally the idea that every single person, regardless reasonable hours and working conditions is no longer of any social-economic factors, receives a standard amount guaranteed for an Australian entering the workforce for the of income. Basic income pilot programs have been designed first time. Older workers too are under pressure. Studies show and implemented in many forms throughout Canada and that workers who have been with the same employer for a long Europe. The most successful basic income pilot program to period of time, notably non-English speaking background date, however, has been the Manitoba Basic Annual Income workers, will find it more difficult to find equivalent work. Program, or Mincome, in Canada running between 1975-77, Most laid-off employees fitting these descriptions will be specifically the town of Dauphin which was ranked among highly likely to transition to poorer quality employment. the poorest in Canada—every town resident was eligible to Take for example, the Broadmeadows Ford Factory in the receive the payment. The program was unique because the outer-northern suburbs of Melbourne, which shut its gates entire community experienced the impact of a basic income, after fifty-six years of operation. 487 workers were left jobless not just select families. Therefore, the results analysed post- without any comprehensive transition plan in place. The program could see how a community was impacted by such type of work available has changed with every significant a radical policy. The program was accessed by nearly 20% industrial revolution – new and innovative jobs were of the population, composed of individuals representing brought into being by the agricultural, industrial revolution nearly every demographic in the town. Dauphin residents and now digital revolution. The next AI revolution is upon received CA$19,500 per year if they did not work, or if an us but we are less certain about the types of jobs on offer as individual worked then they received their basic income at automation and computerisation sweep through industries a negative tax rate of 50%. The impact of this policy was vast making manual labour redundant. and generally positive. Through the policy Dauphin came very close to eliminating poverty. According to a 2016 study The recent paper from the John Curtin Research published in the Canadian Review of Sociology, When Centre titled #changethestates: A new way of talking about asked why residents decided to join the Mincome program, unemployment takes a thorough look at the changing the most common responses were (Calnitsky 2016): “need labour force in Australia. The case to change how we look more income with the cost of living now”; “I was not making at unemployment and labour statistics is a compelling one. enough wages”; “Thought that the little bit would help a lot”; It also, in my view, adds to the foundation of building a “I am self-employed and if I ever did become ill, Mincome case for an Australian basic income—while we must change would probably be paid to my family and I”; “For security in

14 the event I lost my job for any reason—it is nice to know that Importantly, an Australian basic income does not entail Mincome is available to me if I ever need it”; “My children a complete overhaul of how we spend scarce government were young and I felt I was needed at home”; “We have a monies. Australia would still have a fully funded public chance to improve our educational level in order to improve education and university system, public hospitals and our income”; “Lack of jobs”. A major impact of Mincome an expanded Medicare, National Disability Insurance was the 11.3 percentage point reduction in labor market Scheme, and highly targeted welfare policies for the most participation. Critics of the UBI would cite this as a negative disadvantaged Australians. The implementation of a consequence, where people freely abandon their employment basic income before the shutting down of the automotive once they were receiving a guaranteed income. However, industry could have addressed some of the basic concerns qualitative research undertaken on the participants proved of working people during that period. A guaranteed income that there were legitimate justifications for nearly 70% of from the state would have made the transition from full- individuals exiting the labour market. Some of the reasons time employment to precarious unemployment or no job at that arose were ‘care work, disability and illness, uneven all less damaging for the workers, reducing or eliminating employment opportunities, or educational investment’ the toll on mental health that traditionally accompanies (Calnitsky and Latner 2017). Case studies included an older losing a job, and also reducing the stress of finding how to individual who left her job to care for her disabled husband, pay immediate expenditures such as bills, mortgages, and multiple young adults who desired to finish secondary unexpected spending. The automotive industry is only the education and pursue tertiary studies without the burden of first among many that could leave our shores, threatened full-time work to support their family, and individuals who by globalisation, automation, and a changing geopolitical simply could not work due to age or declining health. The landscape—if we haven’t built the capacity and skills to adapt effects of a guaranteed income were tremendously positive, to the next industry shift, it will be more consequential. providing wellbeing and educational opportunities that Viewed in another light, a basic income is inherently an otherwise would not have been available. investment in the people by the State. An investment that would pay people to undertake the unpaid work that was The second major effect was that the overall health cited earlier in the piece, all work that goes unpaid but under of Dauphin increased for the duration of the program. a basic income program would be recognised as work and One key good indicator is the 8.5 percent reduction in remunerated as such. An investment in people recognising hospitalisations (Forget 2011). Visits to the doctor fell, with they are to be valued more than simply another figure in the visits due to mental health issues such as anxiety, personality employment and population statistics. disorders, or clinical depression declining markedly. Finally, it was the smaller, intangible changes which made the A basic income has been called liberating in the way Mincome program worthwhile for Dauphin residents and that social welfare isn’t – the former seeks to empower substantially increased their quality of life. One resident, individuals to capitalise on what they want to do, where they for example, said that it was having that disposable income want to work, how they want to live their lives. Renowned at the end of the week, the ability to buy new shoes after economist and UBI advocate, Rutger Bergman, has said wearing the same ones for years, the ability to go out and ‘basic income is all about the freedom to say no’. If we reflect have a meal more than once a year, and the ability to finish on what developed in Dauphin during the Mincome period, high school without needing to do a full-time job, that made with an implementation of a basic income we can theorise the program life-changing. The high school graduation rate that people who are forced into a job they don’t want to reached new highs – a 99% completion rate was achieved do—whether its due to educational levels, intergenerational from 1977 to 1978. After the program ended the graduation poverty, or simply a lack of opportunities—would have the rate fell back to a rate of approximately 85% in 1979 and in ability to say no to their status quo and pursue a better life, to the years which followed (Forget 2011). the betterment of their communities, and a more productive economy and society. A UBI would see Australia receive a Can the UBI work Downunder given our similarities generous return of human investment. with Canada? Australian social welfare is a comprehensive system and among the best and most efficient in the world, As Australia navigates its future, radical solutions yet there are weaknesses in its ability to provide a genuine to radically new problems must be considered. Radical social safety net for all who need it. Our unemployment changes to the way we have historically worked and lived benefit program, Newstart, has faced criticism since its demand radical, innovative policy solutions. Therein lies the inception. Rather than a sincere welfare policy for citizens challenge and the promise of a future Australian universal unable to be employed or find work, it is designed to punish basic income. and push individuals back into the workforce regardless of whether they are genuinely capable of entering the labour Sources market. A basic income would alleviate the pressure felt by vulnerable and marginalised people, some of whom David Calnitsky, ‘More Normal than Welfare: The Mincome are required to submit upwards of ten job applications a Experiment, Stigma, and Community Experience’, Canadian Review of Sociology 53, no. 1, February 2016, pp. 26-71. fortnight or attend mandatory counselling sessions, not to mention the inefficient use of the jobseekers’ and that of job David Calnitsky and Jonathan P. Latner, ‘Basic Income in a agencies and employers. Small Town: Understanding the Elusive Effects on Work’, Social Problems 64, March 2017, pp. 373-397. If work is supposed to provide dignity then the means to finding work should do the same. Australia must explore Evelyn L. Forget, ‘The Town with No Poverty: The Health Effects a pilot program to investigate the best basic income model of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment’, to match our economy, social norms and political culture. Canadian Public Policy 37, no. 3, September 2011, pp. 283-305.

15 Book Review by Janet McCalman Sally McManus, On Fairness (Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 2019). 9780522874853 (pbk) 9780522874860 (ebook) 100 pp. Australian. Nothing enrages Australians more than ‘crook This is a little book not only of big ideas but of immense umpires’ in sport. Yet it is dangerous to take this national passion and relevance. It could not be more timely, as ideal too far. White Australia has never given Aboriginal the world staggers under the burden of ever-increasing people a ‘fair go’; the Australian Settlement enshrined in unfairness and inequality, a burden that is driving people the Harvester Judgement and the subsequent Arbitration everywhere to seek solutions in hate and intolerance, in and Conciliation Commission, did little for the workers violence and crime, in drugs and disengagement. trapped in seasonal and insecure work; and how did the once Workingman’s Paradise end up with the most unfair What we need is both clear thinking about what education system in the OECD? Fairness means and how we can enshrine and protect it, but also fearless leaders. Sally McManus has delivered If Scott Morrison can cannibalise the ‘fair go as having both. a fair crack’ at getting rich, then it has a problem. We need to think about fairness: first in the direct, bread-and-butter ‘Fairness’ is at the heart of union and Labor politics. struggle that McManus is now so ably leading against wage Unions fight for fairness but the political arm of the ranks theft, insecure work, excessive hours, and stagnating living of labour has the duty to institutionalise fairness: in the standards. But the labour movement needs also to expand law, in the processes of government administration, in the case for the institutionalisation of fairness through a work, health and education, in personal human rights, democratic free education system—a National Education in the protection of the interests of the individual amidst Service for life-long learning; a National Health Service; protecting the interests of wider society. the NDIS; affordable housing; and dignity and comfort for those who cannot provide for themselves. This is a very personal essay. McManus starts with the memorable roasting by Leigh Sales (McManus likens it to These are matters for other books and debates. facing a bouncer), just three hours after being elected as Meanwhile McManus’s 10,000 words On Fairness will the first female secretary of the ACTU. The question Sales excite discussion and passion and should become the ‘Little posed threads through the whole work: should unjust laws Red Book’ of Labor. If only its publisher had bothered to be obeyed just for the sake of obedience. break the text with a few snappy headings, then it would reach an even wider audience. The conclusion hits home hard, especially in the wake of the Royal Commission into the Banking Industry: that This review was originally published in the February laws are being broken every day by the financially powerful, edition of Recorder, journal of the Melbourne branch of by employers and by private institutions. Why is a strike so the Australian Society for the Study of Labour History. much more socially outrageous than the systematic wage Professor Janet McCalman AC () theft that pervades our fragmenting economy? is the author of a number of books including the landmark Struggletown: Public and Private Life in Richmond. She has a fine sense of labour history and the past is ever present: we are taken back to the Tolpuddle Martyrs and the long struggle to make ‘combination’ legal. Of course unions are still not accepted as an integral part of society: the conservative forces still suppress industrial action and never miss the opportunity to depict unions as, by definition, illegal and dangerous.

There is also much of her personal union history from the great teachers’ strike when she was at school, to the Maritime Union’s battle with Patrick Stevedores, to the struggle now to Change the Rules. McManus’s passion is driven by her close connection with the people she represents, her sense that she is beholden to 1.8 million Australians who depend on her to win them a ‘fair go’.

She argues that the ‘fair go’ is quintessentially

16 Broken

Patrick Kennedy on combatting economic inequality in the face of domestic violence.

It was 5 o’clock on a chilly morning in April of the year 2000 when Ma roused me from my slumber, with Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough. The man who was my brother and sister were urging me to keep quiet meant to be our protector, our saviour, murdered my in hushed tones. Down the hallway we crept, past the brother. Hunted down and pulled from beneath a car he parental bedroom where my father lay unconscious was working on, Shaun was assassinated. Left bleeding courtesy of whatever drugs I had witnessed him shoot at the scene after being shot point blank in the chest into his arm the night before. “Don’t worry, Patrick, it’s with a crude pistol made from a sawn-down rifle, he just my medicine,” he’d said as he drew the substance died in recovery after surgery to remove the bullet. His into the syringe, the bruises and broken skin he’d doled final words were “I’ll be right, Ma,” showing that even out in earnest earlier reminding me not to challenge his in his final moments, Shaun was more concerned with assertion. comforting others – something I’ve tried to emulate my entire life. We piled into the 1970s “My mother is the strongest Toyota Corolla our father had so Broken once again and looking graciously allowed Ma to own woman on the planet, and I to escape the vicious rumours of and drove five hours across the am convinced she would never complicity and the abuse of my state to start a new life without have put us in danger unless she father, Ma and I again moved him. Things were hard, a single- across the state, forced again to mother and her three children was left with no choice. She, seek the warm embrace of family forced to sleep on friends’ couches as many victims of domestic and friends just to stay alive. It for months because the abuse should never have been this way. had become too much. We had violence have been forced to do My mother is the strongest woman no money, we’d left only with the for generations, opted to stay on the planet, and I am convinced things we could carry. We were she would never have put us in alone. We were forgotten. It took in abusive relationships, snared danger unless she was left with a long time, but finally we were in a money-trap, shackled by no choice. She, as many victims able to get our own place, only fear. Even when she did manage of domestic violence have been after a real estate agency took a forced to do for generations, opted chance on a battered wife and to break the chains of abuse, to stay in abusive relationships, the three children her estranged we were unable to make ends snared in a money-trap, shackled husband saw as punching bags. by fear. Even when she did Unfortunately, this tale doesn’t meet, and, unfortunately, the manage to break the chains of have a happy ending. very people we were aiming abuse, we were unable to make to escape found their ways ends meet, and, unfortunately, My mother, despite her best the very people we were aiming efforts to keep us safe, was not back into our lives and our to escape found their ways back able to prevent the abuse from nightmares. Victims should into our lives and our nightmares. recurring. My father followed us Victims should never be left in a across the state and forced his way never be left in a position position whereby they are faced back into our lives. He broke into whereby they are faced with with financial uncertainty, or our house and beat Ma black and even ruin, if they leave an abusive blue, and he even put me in hospital financial uncertainty, or even relationship. These are some of on more than one occasion. Due ruin, if they leave an abusive the most vulnerable people in our mostly to financial instability, Ma relationship.” society, and are overwhelmingly, then rushed into a relationship single mothers with children to with another man. He was no better. While he mostly house and feed, and are often forced to go without in an spared the beatings doled out so liberally by my father, effort to protect their children. he would psychologically torment us. Scared, my brother and sister both moved out of home in their mid-teens. This is the new economic reality in Australia for

17 many people. Single mothers are much less likely to investment, to be considered akin to a preventative find stable, full-time work than almost any other group health measure, in ensuring the victims can go on to in our society, and this is due to the still prevalent lead self-sustaining productive lives while ensuring any misogyny in our society which sees women as motherly affected children are kept safe from the often life-long figures who should stay home and raise the children, and mental and physical consequences of family violence. that they are somehow of less value than an equivalent The decision by the Fair Work Commission to grant man in the workplace. While we see the gender pay gap five days unpaid domestic violence leave is simply not slowly beginning to close in real terms, and the Labor enough. Though it was perhaps a signal of hope that Party announcing if elected they will require large tomorrow’s victims will get a better deal from a more companies to disclose their own gender pay gap, we are enlightened society than we have had in the past and left in a situation where women are still over-looked for than we have today. Other first steps have been made by employment purely based on their gender, and if we Labor governments, in , in , Labor throw single parenthood into the equation, we see that governments have stepped up and offered ten days of candidate becomes even less likely to get the role. The cost paid domestic violence leave for government employees. to the community of domestic violence is incalculable. But it’s not enough. That’s why it’s so important that The impact on the productive capacity of the victims is Bill Shorten and Labor has committed to legislating for obvious. The long-term psychological impact on victims national paid family and domestic violence leave. For all and children is grave and immense. Last year alone, Australian victims of this scourge. And for the country 45 Australian women were killed in family violence that will benefit so much from looking after their own. incidents and it is the leading cause of death, disability and illness among Australian women aged between 15 If this measure saves just one life, and statistics show and 44 years of age. Think about that. The leading cause it will save many, it will be worth it. of death, disability and illness among women that age is being physically attacked by their partner. It is a stain on This is Patrick Kennedy’s highly commended entry to our national fabric. Ensuring victims are not financially the JCRC 2018 Young Writers’ Prize. trapped into staying in dangerous environments is an Flying under the radar

Simon Miller on the challenges faced by those in the aviation industry.

significant hurdles confront pilots obtaining the Established in 1938, the Australian Federation of Air flying hours and experience required to progress their Pilots (“AFAP”) is a union and professional association flying careers, or they are compelled to accept terms for Australian commercial air pilots. At present, the and conditions of employment that are below legal AFAP has in excess of 5,000 members nationally, working minimums. for a diverse array of small and regional operators across Australia. In this regard, pilots employed by smaller and regional operators are often underpaid. I am currently assisting In Australia, we are not accustomed to think of pilots six pilots either employed or previously employed by as underpaid and exploited, or as frontline combatants an operator based in the south-eastern suburbs of in the new battle against unfairness and insecurity at Melbourne who have not received various allowances work. But they are. under the Air Pilots Award. Collectively, the assessed underpayments amount to tens of thousands of dollars. Pilots often face significant challenges in the course of their employment, and more broadly, attempts to establish Use of sham contracting arrangements, casual a sustainable career in aviation. Overwhelmingly, they employment to deny permanent employment are young and from culturally and linguistically diverse entitlements and bullying and harassment of these backgrounds, and vulnerable to unethical behaviour. workers by management is also commonplace. For instance, members regularly seek my advice All too frequently, the actions of employers run on independent contractor agreements given to them contrary to the interests of these workers. For instance, on a “take it or leave it” basis when, amongst other

18 factors, considerable control is being exercised over Scheme (“GEERS”), then the entitlements involved will the performance of their duties, their hours of work never materialise. are effectively full-time and the performance of their duties is expected to occur at a sole location. In addition, In response, Labor has committed to provide members are often unwilling to raise legitimate safety additional scope for employees to pursue repayment of concerns due to fears that they will be treated with unpaid wages and redundancy benefits from bankrupt contempt and/or denied opportunities. Furthermore, individuals and insolvent corporations, including these pilots are not covered by an enterprise agreement, through amendment to the Corporations Act. A broader having only the coverage of Award minimum terms and scope for recovery of entitlements will hopefully result conditions. in better outcomes for workers unwittingly caught up in employer bankruptcy and insolvency. While they may suspect that the terms and conditions covering their employment may be sub-Award Then there is the scandal of sham contracting. minimums, pilots at these operations are generally If elected Labor will seek to amend the current test reluctant to raise their concerns, fearing reprisal from that determines whether someone is a defined as an their employers and reputational damage when or ‘employee’. Under the proposed changes, a ‘reasonable if they move to a new job. This is changing. With the person’ test will be created, stipulating that if a reasonable assistance of the AFAP, underpayment and Award- person would consider someone an employee, that entitlement claims are being pursued by pilots at these person must be treated as an employee with workplace employers on termination of their employment. These entitlements. A reasonable person test offers a more claims, however, are often strongly resisted by employers objective assessment of an employment relationship and, due to significant evidential issues connected with and will hopefully remove the scope for employers to identifying hours of work, can wrongfully characterise the form be difficult to prove. In addition, Changing the rules is of engagement as independent enforcement action through legal necessary to redress unfairness contracting, when in substance, forums is often highly protracted. and insecurity faced by workers. that relationship overwhelmingly reflects one of employment. In response, federal Labor’s In particular, pilots and industrial agenda proposes to aviation workers can no longer In addition, pilots, and address these very issues. Firstly, in afford to fly under our nation’s workers more broadly, can be respect of underpayment and non- treated unfairly or even have their payment of entitlements, Labor has fair go radar. employment terminated when committed to increasing penalties for employers who fail they question whether their status is one of independent to pay workers appropriately and is considering making contractor or employee. Therefore, proposed changes by it a criminal offence for an employer to intentionally or Labor to enhance unfair dismissal and adverse action recklessly underpay workers. protections in the Fair Work Act to protect workers from losing their employment when raising this issue will be Increasing penalties and potentially criminalising welcomed. non-compliance offers to enhance the deterrent impact of non-compliance with minimum terms and conditions Labor has also committed to reforming the treatment of employment. Employers will be persuaded to rethink of ‘permanent casuals’, enabling those workers employed any potential negligence or recklessness towards their for twelve months the opportunity to convert their legal obligations. employment to permanent. This reform offers workers greater job security, particularly by overcoming the Moreover, a key issue facing pilots and workers irregularity of intermittent work. It will mean greater generally is the pursuit of unpaid wages and certainty and stability for pilots and workers generally redundancy benefits from bankrupt individuals and in their working arrangements. In addition, Labor’s insolvent corporations. Where an employer goes into intends to investigate fixed-term contracts. Like casual administration or bankruptcy, workers, through no employment, far too often fixed-term contracts are used fault of their own are denied entitlements (for instance in aviation as a means of denying workers security of unpaid superannuation and accrued annual leave) on employment. termination. Administration invariably affects smaller aviation operators, and I have assisted numerous Changing the rules is necessary to redress unfairness members at these employers to recover unpaid wages and insecurity faced by workers. In particular, pilots and and benefits on the termination of their employment, aviation workers can no longer afford to fly under our at times unsuccessfully. Exhaustive processes to recover nation’s fair go radar. these entitlements involving communications over months with company directors and administrators Simon Miller is an industrial advisor with the can be fruitless. Generally these workers are employed Australian Federation of Air Pilots. The views expressed on Award minimum rates of pay and conditions. Unless in this article are entirely his own and not intended to be any claims are upheld through the Federal Government’s representative of the AFAP. General Employee Entitlements and Redundancy 19 Getting to know… John Curtin Research Centre Committee of Management Member, Mary Easson What got you interested in politics?

I came from a Labor-voting Catholic household. Social justice was important. I was politicised by the Vietnam War. I attended my first moratorium at 14 years of age. For me it was personal – I had four older brothers who were of conscription age. It was a civil war and my belief was Australia should not be conscripting its young men to fight. I joined the ALP as soon as I left high school.

Tell our readers an unusual fact about yourself

Ten years ago I went in for a half day medical procedure which went pear-shaped. I spent three months in intensive care – I had to learn how to do simple things all over again, like walking. My life was put on hold for a year, but I have come to see the experience as part of the rich tapestry of life. During my time in hospital I made a rule – whether it was a doctor, nurse, orderly or friend I was determined that whoever entered my room was to come away having made their ‘day better’. What do you like to get up to What is the one big outside of work? policy problem facing Australia and the solution? I am married to Michael, we have two girls. Making time to spend with family and friends There are so many problems needing to be – I pride myself on the fact I have friends from tackled. At the heart of everything: working every stage of life – is important to me along people need to be treated with respect. The with travelling the world and cooking in my Royal Commission exposed the banks and spare time. other financial institutions outside of industry super doing the wrong thing. Interestingly, the self-managed superannuation fund sector was deliberately excluded from review. You can bet your bottom dollar that crooked advice and rip-off fees characterise parts of that industry. A future Labor government needs to shine a light on that sector and ensure the What attracted you to the JCRC? highest standards apply. A trillion dollars is at stake. I have long been inspired by the ideas and leadership of John Curtin himself. The quality of the people involved with the JCRC – such as my long-time friends Michael Danby and Henry Pinskier among others – convinced me to join up. Tell us about your working life.

My first (part-time) job was in a family newsagent. After school I worked for Ivan Trayling, state Labor member for the Legislative Council seat of Melbourne Province (1972-82), as a Young Labor organiser, and for , the Member for Melbourne Ports and Treasurer in the . I worked Any advice for in Queensland for the Australian Public Sector young activists? Association and later in the private sector for ACI in Melbourne where I eventually headed up I was one of the first generation that was national government relations for its packaging employed as ‘political staffers.’ But I think it division as well as for Ansett Airlines. I ran for is vital that aspiring leaders and politicians federal parliament in the NSW seat of Lowe in get outside experience beyond the party 1990 under ’s leadership. Despite achieving a swing to Labor I was unsuccessful but machine and labour movement, so they are managed to enter parliament in 1993 up until the equipped to bring real-world knowledge, defeat of Keating Labor three year later. notably of industry and the economy, to public Afterwards I set up my government relations life. In my case aviation, manufacturing and advisory firm, Probity International, construction formed part of the experience. I’d where I remain to this day. urge activists to be curious. Be like a vacuum cleaner – ask questions of others, hoover up information. It’s time to #changethestats Nick Dyrenfurth on why our stats are broken.

this data provides us with internationally comparative and For too long front-page statistics – the ones that affect historically trackable data. The ABS acknowledges one people’s lives – have been hiding our real economic hour’s work a week is ‘insufficient to survive on’. Yet the story. Consider the nation’s headline statistic regarding idea that unemployment is 5 per cent and employment is who is looking for a job, the monthly and quarterly equal to one hour’s work is laughable. Real fake news. unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The latest ABS unemployment data is ostensibly Our economy and society have changed dramatically good news. The December 2018 rate fell to 5 per cent, the since the 1960s. Yet the labour force statistics and the ways lowest since June 2011, on the back of what some term a they are used by politicians and media haven’t. ABS figures “buoyant jobs market”. ABS figures should be treated with don’t really take into account the increasing divergence caution; they are a “survey” based on a sample of 50,000. between the new ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ in the Australian Unemployment is likely to curve upwards next month, or, economy. The ‘haves’ enjoy secure full-time employment if it falls, be driven by lower labour force participation, and and the financial and emotional benefits it brings; ‘have population growth. Full-time work “The one-hour-a-week nots’ are subject to vagaries of fell by 3000 in December, while insecure work, underemployment, part-time work rose by 24,600. The definition of employment and lower pay packets. long-term trend growth is geared should be swept into the towards the gig economy. Less Statistics matter in view of than half of workers hold a full- statistical bin of history. Any declining trust in our institutions. time job. Casuals, part-timers and new definition of employment When the perception of reality on contractors are on the rise – denied the street is so out of step with the job security, sick leave, holiday must be based on the ability beltway, cynicism and pay, and superannuation. All on of a citizen and her or his anger grows. It breeds the sort of top of stagnant wages growth. nihilistic fury that saw Donald The Uberisation of work can be dependants to earn a ‘living Trump elected. Federal Labor discerned from other data. Total wage’, not some outdated leader Bill Shorten put it well in his hours worked rose by 1.5 per cent in speech to the party’s 2018 national 2018. Yet hours worked per person ‘minimum wage’.” conference. His party’s biggest declined. Underemployment – employees working but challenge was not simply fighting the Coalition, but who would like to work more hours – is rising and reached restoring faith in democracy. “Our deeper opponents are 8.4 per cent in December. The under-utilisation rate — distrust, disengagement, scepticism and cynicism,” he said. unemployment and underemployment combined — was “Our Labor mission is not just to win back government; it steady at 13.3 per cent. is to rebuild trust in our very democracy, to restore the meaning to the fair go.” The correlation between unemployment and underemployment – historically moving in tandem It’s time to talk honestly about unemployment data whereby the latter is two points higher than the former and insecure work, how we measure it, and whether it is – is weakening. The differential is now about 3 per cent. fit-for-purpose in 2019. The one-hour-a-week definition As economics writer Greg Jericho has warned, this of employment should be swept into the statistical bin of indicates a permanent structural shift towards higher history. Any new definition of employment must be based underemployment: bad for young or old, male or female. on the ability of a citizen and her or his dependants to Youth unemployment is unacceptably high. earn a ‘living wage’, not some outdated ‘minimum wage’. Rather, it should be a version of our nation’s famous 1907 There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and Harvester judgment, that a ‘fair and reasonable’ wage statistics. It’s a familiar refrain. Yet people pay attention to must take into account the ‘normal needs of the average the ABS’ published unemployment data. Unemployment employee regarded as a human being living in a civilised down is ‘good news’; unemployment up, not so much. community’, crafted for this precariat age. Our job How we measure and talk about unemployment matters. statistics are broken. It’s time to #changethestats. Yet many politicians, pundits and the public remain fixated on pure data, measured by a near 60-year-old Nick Dyrenfurth is Executive Director of the JCRC. This International Labour Organisation standard – if you work is an extract of #changethestats: a new way of talking about for at least ‘one hour’ a week you are ‘employed’. Granted, unemployment https://www.curtinrc.org/changethestats/

22 Massachusetts Down Under Paul Strangio writes on Victorian Labor’s ‘Danslide’.

“The Massachusetts of Australia” is how Liberal Party elder statesman christened Victoria in the ‘Brack-slide’—the term coined in 2002 when another wake of last November’s state election result. Victoria first term Labor premier, Steve Bracks, pulled off an has an electoral record, the former prime minister unprecedented 57.8 per cent two-party-preferred win suggested, “for quite some years now, some decades in (from a 47.9 per cent primary vote) and along the way fact, of being slightly more to the centre-left”. Howard’s claimed the party’s first ever majority in Victoria’s purpose it seemed was to steady the nerves of shell- upper house. While the Andrews government’s re- shocked Liberals. Rather than the party resigning itself election fell marginally short of the 2002 result on two- to defeat at the impending 2019 federal election contest, party-preferred terms (57.3 per cent from a 42.9 per cent his message was—to reference but invert an American primary vote) and couldn’t provide Labor with control political axiom—as Victoria goes, so not necessarily of a proportionally-elected upper house, it was still a goes the nation. Howard is certainly correct that resounding win—especially in an era when major party Victoria’s recent electoral history is defined by centre- decline and minority governments have become more left (read Labor) ascendancy. It is a pattern that can be the standard. Stylistically, Andrews’ 2018 triumph dated back to the ALP’s watershed victory at the April was arguably even more remarkable than what Bracks 1982 state election, which brought John Cain jnr to the achieved in 2002. The latter’s approach to governing premiership and ended 27 years of Labor exile from office was cautious, conciliatory and consultative (his mantra following the split of the mid-1950s that had destroyed was that ‘he listens then acts’). His image was that of the government of Cain’s father. So synonymous with a genial everyman. Andrews, on the other hand, had failure had Labor become during that generation-long been an assertive and activist premier from day one wilderness era that on polling “Howard is certainly correct (his mantra might have been: ‘he day 1982 one sceptical voter had acts’). This has been exemplified taunted an understandably edgy that Victoria’s recent electoral by his government’s ambitious Cain, “You’re like Collingwood. history is defined by centre-leftinfrastructure agenda, but also If you don’t win it this time you a willingness to barge through ever will”. But Labor did win and (read Labor) ascendancy. It is a controversies unapologetically have prevailed in Victoria pretty pattern that can be dated back (whether cancelling the contract much consistently ever since. The to the ALP’s watershed victory for the East West Tunnel project, numbers tell the story: beginning the prolonged dispute over with that 1982 breakthrough result at the April 1982 state election, reforming the Country Fire the ALP has secured government which brought John Cain jnr to Authority or revelations about at eight of the past eleven elections Labor’s deployment of taxpayer and by the time Victorians are the premiership and ended 27 funded electoral staff in its 2014 next due to go to the polls in 2022 years of Labor exile from office election campaign—the so-called the party will have ruled over following the split of the mid- ‘red shirts’ affair). Lacking the Spring Street for three quarters easy appeal of Bracks, nor has of the past four decades. That 1950s that had destroyed the Andrews appeared especially dominance is replicated in federal government of Cain’s father.” fussed about courting popularity election results over the same and has mostly eschewed media period. In the fourteen national elections since 1980, contrivances to leaven his image. In another contrast, Labor has won the two-party preferred vote in Victoria while Bracks kept the trade unions at a distance, Andrews on twelve occasions (the exceptions are 1990 and 2004). has not camouflaged his government’s closeness to the labour movement. Nothing more vividly demonstrated The re-election of the Andrews government in this than him one month out from the election proudly November then further consolidated an already and audaciously marching at the head of an ACTU- established pattern in Victorian politics. Yet it also had organised rally in support of strengthened industrial striking features. First was the magnitude of Labor’s rights and improved conditions for workers. All of this victory. ‘Dan-slide’ was the favoured description on inflamed his detractors (not least the Herald Sun), yet election night. This was, of course, a variation on Andrews remained unmoved. It has almost seemed he

23 stinging repudiation of the Liberal opposition and its tin-eared campaign. This was spectacularly emphasised by the flight of voters from the party in traditionally blue-ribbon seats such as Hawthorn (which fell to Labor), Brighton, Malvern and Sandringham. A strident law and order agenda was not only woefully out of touch with the lived experience of these constituencies but, coming on the heels of the August 2019 putsch against Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership, reinforced the image of a Liberal Party hostage to conservative elements. In a now notorious post-mortem on the state election, soon to be former federal Liberal member for Higgins, Kelly O’Dwyer, reportedly told Victorian colleagues that the party was perceived by the public as ‘homophobic, anti- women, climate-change deniers’. Nor was the rejection of the Liberal Party limited to its heartland. It was notable that some of the safest Labor seats with a very high proportion of voters from non-English speaking derives satisfaction and affirmation by defying critics. In backgrounds (Dandenong was an example) swung addition, the first term Andrews government established harder still to the Andrews government and against the a record of adventurism on social policy. Most notably, opposition. It seems not unreasonable to suspect that it legislated for Victoria to become the first Australian in such communities the Liberal’s incapacity to find a state to legalise voluntary assisted dying, embarked on vocabulary to speak to pluralism—made worse by such negotiating a treaty with the Indigenous community tactics as inflammatory alarmism about ethnic-based and, notwithstanding initial hesitation, established a gangs—was both deeply alienating and hurtful. Indeed, trial medically supervised injecting centre. perhaps O’Dwyer’s catalogue of Liberal Party liabilities could have included that it was viewed as insensitively The strong policy convictions of the Andrews monocultural. government appear to have paid dividends in the election result. A case in point was in the traditional The tantalising question arising from the Victorian bellwether sand-belt constituencies of Frankston, election result is whether it presages what is coming in Carrum, Mordialloc and Bentleigh, where Labor the national poll. If Labor can achieve similar swings achieved eye-catching swings of 9.3 per cent, 11.2 per in Victoria this May then not only will Dunkley, cent, 10.8 per cent and 11.1 per cent respectively. This Corangamite, Chisholm and La Trobe likely fall to it, powerful endorsement undoubtedly owed much to the but Casey, Deakin, Flinders and still more Liberal- government’s activism in these communities highlighted held seats further up the pendulum are potentially by its signature railway level crossing removal program. vulnerable. For the Scott Morrison-led federal The boldness of the Andrews government also plausibly Coalition, this is now a chilling reality. Morrison’s new helps explain the underwhelming performance by the found, albeit unpersuasive, interest in climate change Greens in the November poll. It was the first Victorian and women’s representation, may indeed be interpreted state election since the party’s breakthrough result of as a belated recognition that playing to a so-called 2002 (notably in the context of a thoroughly moderate conservative ‘base’ in Queensland will not salvage his Labor government) that the Greens vote went backwards. prime ministership. The government is in jeopardy of Other factors than the Andrews government’s policy being defeated in Victoria alone. record contributed to that outcome, namely internal divisions in the Greens and its campaign being derailed And here exposed is the arithmetic flaw in Howard’s by controversies over its culture towards women. Yet, post-state election words of comfort for the remaining coming on top of Labor holding the Greens at bay in the Liberal faithful. Victoria might be analogous to March 2018 Batman federal by-election with a highly Massachusetts in its habitual progressive political bent, credentialed progressive candidate (), it but it is one of six not fifty states. suggests that there is nothing necessarily inevitable about the Greens’ conquest of the inner-city electorates. Paul Strangio is an associate professor of politics at With whispers that an emboldened ALP believes it can Monash University. His many publications include claw support off Adam Bandt in Melbourne at this year’s Neither Power Nor Glory: 100 Years of Political Labor in federal election is it possible we are about to witness a Victoria, 1856-1956 (Melbourne University Publishing, reversal of roles as the hunters of the inner-city seats 2012). (the Greens) become the prey?

Of course, the election result was not only a vindication of the Labor government. It was also a

24 In case you missed it... Take a look back at highlights from our recent events.

◄ ALP National Conference Fringe Adelaide ►

► ▲ ALP National Conference Fringe Prof. Tim Adelaide Soutphommasane Melbourne ▼

◄ ALP National Conference Fringe Adelaide JCRC in the news Catch up on all our latest musings, straight off the desks of our Committee and Board Members.

Our Executive Director Nick Dyrenfurth has Labour (University of Kent/Copmpass, 2018). been busy in the media, writing on the need Best wishes to our Advisory Board member to revolutionise our TAFE sector for The Age Michael Danby who will retire as the and Canberra Times: ‘TAFE should no longer Member for Melbourne Ports after two be the poor cousin to University’, (27 January decades at the next election, and to our 2019). management committee member David Cragg who has retired after a stellar career An edited extract of Nick’s JCRC in the union movement, most recently as #changethestats report ran in both The Age Assistant Secretary of Victorian Trades Hall. and Sydney Morning Herald (‘The one- hour week and other damned lies in our job Congratulations to our advisory board statistics’, 8 February). His take on Budget member Kosmos Samaras who helped 2019 was also published by Nine Media spearhead the landslide victory of the (‘Coalition government shows stubborn Andrews Labor government at the 2018 state unwillingness to fix debt’, 31 March). election.

Nick was also published by ABC Religion and Ethics, where he wrote on the Stay up-to-date with JCRC news: antisemitism scandal enveloping UK Labour www.curtinrc.org/news (‘British Labour, anti-Semitism and the www.facebook.com/curtinrc immorality of Jeremy Corbyn’, 28 February), www.twitter.com/curtin_rc while his overview of Australian social democracy appears as a book chapter in Adrian Pabst and ‘s What’s Left: The state of global social democracy and lessons for UK

26

COMMITTEE OF MANAGEMENT

Dr Kate Murphy Dr Henry Pinskier Andrew Porter Rebekka Power Mary Easson Ken Macpherson David Cragg Adam Slonim

BOARD OF ADVISORS

Dr Nick Dyrenfurth (Executive Director, JCRC) Senator the Hon. Senator Kimberley Kitching Michael Danby MP Dr Mike Kelly MP Hon. MLA Hon. Peter Malinauskas MLC Hon. Philip Dalidakis MLC Hon. (former Labor Senator for Victoria) Dr Bill Leadbetter (Former Labor MP, University of Notre Dame, Cathedral Scholar - Cathedral) Kosmos Samaras (Assistant Secretary, Victorian ALP) Ari Suss (Executive Director, Linfox Private Group) Marcia Pinskier (NFP Advisory Services) Professor Janet McCalman (University of Melbourne) Professor Marc Stears (Macquarie University) Adam Slonim (Blended Learning Group, AILD) Krystian Seibert (Not-for-profit sector policy expert) Professor Andrew Reeves (Historian and policy analyst) John Mickel (former Labor MP; Adjunct Associate Professor, Queensland University of Technology) Geoff Fary (former Assistant Secretary, Australian Council of Trade Unions) Andrew Dettmer (National President, Australian Manufacturing Workers Union) Marina Chambers (Australian Workers Union, National President) Lord Maurice Glasman (UK) Jon Cruddas MP (UK Labour Party) Professor Alan Johnson (BICOM, UK) Arnie Graf (Community Organiser, US) Simon Greer (Cambridge Heath Ventures, US) Hilik Bar MK (Former Secretary General Labor Party, Deputy Speaker Knesset)