FRONT COVER
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OneOne P Powerhouseowerhouse TowardsTowards a a spatial spatial blueprint MidlandsMidlands INSIDE FRONT COVER
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Important Note from Authors
You will have noticed that this report is dated 2020. Indeed, our view is that the likely negative effects of the lockdowns and social distancing, combined with the The delay in publishing has been brought about by the cross-party aspirations for levelling up, make our draft Coronavirus lockdowns. Spatial Plans even more relevant as a very practical and transparent road map to delivering an equitable, Any issues that might necessitate allusion to Coronavirus sustainable future for the Regions of England - in the do not, we feel, have a profound impact on the factors shortest possible time. that underpin the approach, findings, plans or recommendations contained in our reports. One Powerhouse Consortium Board and RSA January 2021
About the One About the RSA Powerhouse Consortium
The One Powerhouse The RSA (Royal Society Consortium, supported by for the encouragement The Sir Hugh and Lady Sykes of Arts Manufactures and Charitable Trust, believes that a Commerce) believes in a substantial part of the problem world where everyone is able to participate in creating a of regional inequality can be better future. Through our solved not just by money, but ideas, research and a 30,000 by the transformative potential strong Fellowship we are a of spatial planning. Working global community of proactive with recognised leaders in problem solvers. We unite people and ideas to resolve the creating draft spatial plans challenges of our time. for the ‘mega regions’ of England to sit alongside the existing spatial plans for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated
the very best advice. We are passionate about creating places that are not only commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. By curating teams of Planners and Designers with a
Barton Willmore would like to thank everyone who contributed to the research behind the project, including East Midlands Councils, Futures Network West Midlands, Homes England and the UK2070 Commission.
the 21st November 2019. © The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of The Barton Willmore Partnership. All plans are reproduced from the Ordnance Survey Map with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Crown Copyright Reserved. License No. 100019279. Desk Top Publishing and Graphic Design by Barton Willmore Graphic Communication INSIDE FRONT COVER
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Contents
Fuelling the Engine 4 Our Midlands Manifesto for Prosperity: About the One About the RSA Strategic Priorities 6 Powerhouse Consortium A Vision for Britain. Planned. 8 The One Powerhouse The RSA (Royal Society Consortium, supported by for the encouragement The Importance of Spatial Planning 10 The Sir Hugh and Lady Sykes of Arts Manufactures and Charitable Trust, believes that a Commerce) believes in a Assumptions about the future 12 substantial part of the problem world where everyone is able of regional inequality can be to participate in creating a Introduction & Approach 16 solved not just by money, but better future. Through our by the transformative potential ideas, research and a 30,000 Analytical Frameworks 20 of spatial planning. Working strong Fellowship we are a with recognised leaders in global community of proactive Population & Place 20 the field, the consortium is problem solvers. Uniting creating draft spatial plans people and ideas to resolve Transport & Connectivity 30 for the ‘mega regions’ of the challenges of our time. England to sit alongside the Economy 38 existing spatial plans for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Energy 52
Summary of Challenges 56 Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated planning and design consultancy. From our 13 offices nationwide, Compelling Visions 58 we combine national influence with local knowledge to offer you the very best advice. We are passionate about creating places that The Midlands Regional Blueprint 58 are not only commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. By curating teams of Planners and Designers with a A Prosperous Midlands 60 diverse range of skills and specialisms, we offer our clients a highly Place-Making For Tomorrow 66 efficient, informed and innovative service tailored to the challenges they face on projects of all different types. A Greener Midlands 74 Barton Willmore would like to thank everyone who contributed to the research behind the project, including East Infrastructure, The Enabler of Growth 80 Midlands Councils, Futures Network West Midlands, Homes England and the UK2070 Commission. Institutional Framework 90 The data and figures presented in the project are up-to-date as of the 21st November 2019. Infrastructure Programme 94 © The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced Conclusion 102 in whole or in part without the written consent of The Barton Willmore Partnership. All plans are reproduced from the Ordnance Survey Map with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Crown Copyright Reserved. License No. 100019279. Desk Top Publishing and Graphic Design by Barton Willmore Graphic Communication 4
Fuelling the Engine
The success of The Midlands will be dependent upon how we respond today to challenges facing the megaregion. The way that we plan for The Midlands and deliver its growth aspirations and infrastructure requirements is becoming increasingly complicated by macro-level processes. These include technological advancements, climate change, resource management, politics and societal shifts in our views on health and well-being. By 2070, it is reasonable to assume that planning will face more shocks, as generational priorities change, and environmental pressures increase. Planning provides a vehicle for the delivery of social inclusivity and equitable outcomes alongside the normal activities of balancing social, economic and environmental priorities.
Without structures in place to plan strategically and to the debate over the megaregion’s long-term future. holistically, we are failing to make the most of current The Spatial Blueprint could be taken forward to address infrastructure investments and future opportunities the challenges we consider are relevant to The Midlands which, in turn, means productivity is lower than it today and in the coming decades. It has identified The should be. If the megaregion is to continue to function Midland’s existing assets and networks and envisioned as the engine room, situated at the heart of the UK, a ‘what could be’ to unlock economic and social potential. new vision for the coming generation is required. This document sets out a Manifesto for Prosperity Barton Willmore has drawn upon its multidisciplinary comprising of 10 Strategic Priorities, that serve expertise and strategic knowledge of working within as a starting point for engagement between the the megaregion to develop a Spatial Blueprint that Government, local authorities, infrastructure providers, serves as a broad spatial framework. This will sit investors, developers and communities in ensuring The alongside work already undertaken by the Government Midland’s ongoing success in the 50 years ahead. as part of The Midlands Engine Strategy and will add 5
Infrastructure: A Prosperous the Enabler of Growth Midlands
FUELLING THE NATION’S ENGINE
A Greener Place-Making Midlands for Tomorrow 6
Our Midlands Manifesto for Prosperity: Strategic Priorities
A Prosperous Place-making Midlands for Tomorrow
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Establish Sector-specific Centres of Implement a Mixed Strategy for Excellence and Innovation Boards. Housing Growth.
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Strengthening Key Investment Corridors and Delivering Adaptable Places. Identifying new Inclusive Growth Corridors.
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Undertaking a Strategic Green Belt Review. 7
A Greener Infrastructure: Midlands the Enabler of Growth
6 8
Establishing the Midlands Automotive Investing in the Midlands Motorway Arc (AA) and Eastern and Western Energy and Rail Hubs. Innovation Zones. 9 7 Using Development Corporations/Special A holistic approach to Flood Defence and Purpose Vehicles to optimise Strategic Water Management to protect the UK’s Gateways. National Food Security. 10
Targeted Programme of investment in 5G to benefit key sectors. 8
A Vision for Britain. Planned.
The One Powerhouse Consortium, Regional inequality in the UK supported by The Sir Hugh and Lady Ruby Today, just under half of the UK population live in Sykes Charitable Trust, believes that a regions with a comparable productivity to the poorer substantial part of the problem of regional parts of former East Germany – and comparable living standards are worse. According to the recent UK2070 inequality in the UK can be solved not Commission, the UK today is more intraregionally just by money, but by the transformative unequal than Germany was in 1995. Since reunification, potential of spatial planning. Germany has since pulled itself together, through decisive investment programmes underpinned by Spatial planning is the ‘where’ of decisions. It looks at visionary spatial planning. During a similar period the a defined geographical area and makes an assessment UK, on the other hand, has fragmented. of everything contained in that area – towns, cities, housing, schools, universities, roads, rails, airports, The nature and extent of the so-called ‘North-South’ offices, factories, hospitals, energy sources, museums, divide can be presented in many forms. Maps showing parks and leisure activities - and makes a plan to economic productivity, educational attainment and develop those assets for the benefit of the people who poor health all present sharp disparities between live in that region, now and for the future. regions and nations. Current forecasts suggest the situation will only get worse and that in fact It is well understood that countries and regions around the economy of London and the South East is the world have used spatial planning to focus political ‘decoupling’ from the rest of the UK (McCann 2016). The will, economic activity and social reform to great effect. repercussions are stark and grow more evident all the Notable examples include Germany’s Rhine-Ruhr, time. Holland’s Randstad and New York City’s Regional Plan Association. While bemoaning the growth of regional inequality in the country, successive governments have extolled the virtues of spatially blind investment in the best performing sectors and projects. The adherence to current appraisal mechanisms, codified in the Treasury’s Green Book, has been to channel investment to the most prosperous places, reinforcing geographical divides.
Spatially-sensitive policy is not simply a matter of social justice and political prudence. Regional prosperity drives national prosperity and so regional imbalance constrains overall performance. Accommodating agglomeration in some places while servicing mounting welfare bills in others damages the UK’s fiscal balance and exacerbates the underlying problem. 9
The value of place and scale Draft blueprints
There is evidence that spatial planning has already The vision of the One Powerhouse Consortium has been begun to deliver results in the UK. We are not alone in to prepare a series of draft spatial blueprints that will recognising that the two ‘regional economies’ that have demonstrate the potential of regional planning in action the highest levels of productivity are those where there and show how it could lead to better decision-making are coherent regional economic plans: London and and prioritisation of investment across the country. Scotland. Our definition of a blueprint is that of ‘an early plan or design that explains how something might be achieved’ Indeed, in England, there is good work taking place (Cambridge dictionary). While based on thorough through some Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) analysis and evaluation, our draft blueprints are by and Combined Authorities and Mayoralties but not all. In no means the finished product but they point to what strategic planning and investment terms, these tend to could be achieved with better resourcing, co-ordination be rather small and the outcome is rather patchwork. and support.
Our Plan The technical work has been led by planning consultancies linked to the regions: Atkins in the North, The clear ‘gap’ in terms of economic planning in the Barton Willmore in the Midlands and the South West UK, therefore, is at the level of the English regions. and Aecom in the South East. The One Powerhouse Any spatial strategy needs to bring together the best Consortium has also worked hand-in-hand with the local industrial strategies and plans within a wider UK2070 Commission and drawn upon the support of the regional strategy framework. The foundations of how well-respected think tank the RSA. this can be achieved are already present. The regions This blueprint, along with those being developed in of England are already coming together: The Northern other English regions, identifies a series of challenges Powerhouse, The Midlands Engine, The Great South and opportunities facing the region but it also sets West and The Wider South East all exist as functional the context for a national conversation about the identities. transformative benefits of regional spatial planning. Our ambition is, in short, to work with these regional networks to prepare a series of draft spatial blueprints that will better enable decision-making and prioritisation of investment across the country and thus help the UK as a whole develop over the long term – creating opportunity for all, jobs for all and prosperity for all. 10
The Importance of Spatial Planning
Defining spatial planning
The One Powerhouse Consortium believes adopting Spatial planning tends to be multi-agency, long-term and implementing a broad notion of spatial planning is and strategic. It encompasses wide-ranging economic, critical to the future of the UK economy. For some, the political and environmental functions and incorporates discipline of planning involves a limited set of narrow projections for the future, aiming to proactively shape statutory functions regulating the use and development change and improve investor confidence. In many parts of land. Increasingly, however, planning is conceived of the world the discipline of planning spans the spatial more holistically, as a creative process of envisioning elements of multiple different policy streams. and delivering places and regions fit for the future. This broader conception often goes by the name of ‘spatial The UK government itself has previously defined spatial planning’. planning as something that “goes beyond traditional land use planning to bring together and integrate At its most basic, spatial planning is the ‘where’ of policies for the development and use of land with other decisions. A spatial plan is the visual illustration of the policies and programmes” – such as sustainability, potential future of an area. It maps out all the assets transport, economy and culture – “which influence the within a given area – the towns, cities, houses, schools, nature of places and how they function” (Taylor 2010). universities, roads, rails, airports, offices, factories, hospitals, energy sources, leisure activities – and, using the available evidence, suggests how best to arrange and develop them to achieve stated goals. Spatial planning is the practice of producing these maps and the associated coordination of different activities and decisions that influence spatial organisation. In its 2004 plan, the Welsh Government defined spatial planning simply as the “consideration of what can and should happen where” (WAG 2004). 11
Spatial planning in the UK
In the UK, spatial planning has been best embraced in Since then, the government has extolled the virtues the devolved nations. It has helped the newly devolved of ‘spatially-blind’ planning, making its investment nations to express their cohesiveness and their decisions according to the current performance of distinctiveness and to coordinate their different policy industries and sectors and deliberately ignoring place programmes in service of common aims. – while simultaneously bemoaning the stubbornness of spatial inequality and the poor productivity of large Alongside this, in the early 2000s the New Labour parts of the country. In 2012, a University of Manchester government oversaw the creation of 9 regional study for the RTPI showed that only 40% of surveyed development agencies in England tasked with UK government policy documents had an explicit developing Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS). These spatial dimension, despite all having manifest spatial helped to bridge the gap between local planning repercussions (Wong 2012). policy and national objectives, in many cases allowing for more effective development and infrastructure Perhaps the one place in England that does have a decisions. But after 2008, when there were signs comprehensive spatial plan is London. Unsurprisingly, of some of these improvements coming to fruition, this has supported it to become uniquely coordinated planning was widely blamed for harming the post-crash and productive. Elsewhere, there is insufficient recovery and some strategies were mired in debates focus on how policies and interventions interact and about housing numbers. In 2010, the new coalition sometimes contradict in a given place. Restrictive land government abolished the regional strategies as part of use planning at the local level remains the norm across its move towards localism in planning. much of the country, preventing the development of strategic responses to many future challenges. There has since been little or no spatial planning at the regional scale, leaving a patchwork and uncoordinated system of local planning at various scales. At the time, the all-party Commons Communities and Local Government Committee warned that “the intended abolition of regional spatial planning strategies leaves a vacuum at the heart of the English planning system which could have profound social, economic and environmental consequences set to last for many years”. (parliament.uk 2011). 12
Assumptions about the future
One Powerhouse technical partners were given a Energy ‘technical brief’ - an illustrative outline of the potential form and content of each megaregional plan. It Achieving net zero by 2050 will necessitate a suggests certain common components for the regional combination of local community solutions (such as blueprints: a) a rigorous analytical framework; b) a low carbon heat solutions in homes, electric vehicles, series of compelling visions; c) a strategic investment decentralised wind generation, micro-generation and framework; and d) an analysis of institutional capacity reduced energy demand) and large-scale centralised and strategic partnerships for delivery. solutions (such as offshore wind generation, hydrogen for heat, carbon capture and potentially new nuclear Given the long-term, visionary nature of these spatial energy production by the mid-2030s). Low levels plans, we have also made several assumptions about of: (i) policy support; (ii) GDP growth; (iii) consumer potential future scenarios based on the available engagement; or (iv) technology development might evidence. These are set out below: prevent us from achieving net zero by 2050 (FES 2019). Issues of energy poverty must be addressed, as must Urban life the potential increased demand on the energy system as a result of technological innovation. Short term: Congestion is due to get worse in the UK over the next 30 years. The degree of intensification Climate change will be determined by rates of population and economic growth, costs of driving, demand for freight and A changing climate is likely to bring significantly several other variables. High demand could lead to the increased risks of extreme weather events such as introduction of capacity management systems such flooding or droughts, which will impact transport as tolls and segmentation, as well as smart traffic infrastructure, agriculture and other vital economic management systems, such as driverless cars and the sectors. Without intervention, it is estimated that use of big data in transport systems. floods and droughts will become more severe. Kent, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the Humber are high flood Longer term: Towards the end of this period, however, risk areas, while drought will likely hit hardest in the congestion might start to ease, as workers leave the South East. biggest cities, driven away by rising house prices, declining air quality and traffic. Digital substitution for travel will facilitate this shift and the robotisation of city-centre jobs will contribute to a reduction in the amount of people travelling to city centres. 13
Large-scale infrastructure projects
Despite delays and concerns about costs, HS2 will go ahead, connecting London and Birmingham by 2031. Notwithstanding current equivocation, One Powerhouse supports the extension of tracks to both Manchester and Leeds by 2040. This will boost rail capacity and ease road congestion. It is possible that by 2070, HS2 will have been extended to Glasgow and Edinburgh. By the end of this period, hyperloop might be used to transport freight and possibly passengers, most likely following existing motorways.
Greenbelt and agricultural land
Greenbelt policy will not be abandoned, but there will be a gradual and incremental loosening of restrictions as pressure for house building grows and more councils find ways to ease restrictions. In the short term, population increases will result in an increase of home- grown food production, but in the long-term changing diets and regenerative agricultural methods will change how land is used. 14
ABOUT US BARTON WILLMORE
Barton Willmore is the UK’s largest independent, integrated planning and design consultancy. From our 13 offices nationwide, we combine national influence with local knowledge to offer you the very best advice. We are passionate about creating places that are not only commercially viable, but also sustainable, dynamic and progressive. By curating teams of Planners and Designers with a diverse range of skills and specialisms, we offer our clients a highly efficient, informed and innovative service tailored to the challenges they face on projects of all different types.
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Introduction & Approach
The Midlands has huge economic potential. The Midlands Engine was established in 2016 and is a Government backed initiative that seeks to transform the megaregion into an economic powerhouse through a holistic vision. However, there is currently no overarching strategic spatial framework to drive forward its growth ambitions through the alignment and reconciliation of its industrial and spatial strategies.
The Midlands Engine Strategy (2017) announced plans Challenge 1: to invest £392 million across the Midlands through Lack of a Strategic Planning the Local Growth Fund and was supplemented by the Framework Midlands Connect Strategy (2017). Midlands Connect are responsible for taking forward and delivering The absence of a pan-Midlands strategic tier of transport connectivity across the megaregion. Whilst governance makes it difficult for the Midlands there are clearly shared spatial policies, there is no Engine’s growth potential to be realised and overarching collaborative regulatory mechanism to this has resulted in a disconnect between the draw spatial priorities together2 . level of growth being planned for by different bodies at differing administrative scales1. We are calling for a broad spatial framework that The Midlands comprises ten Local Enterprise provides a strategic and integrated multi-disciplinary Partnerships (LEPs) that can be broken down approach to managing growth and infrastructure into 69 local authorities; each with their investment that will seek to address regional local plans at different stages in the plan- inequalities, with aligned growth ambitions trickling making process and the Duty to Co-operate down to all scales. This will add a more ‘place-based’ functioning with varying degrees of success. focus to the work already undertaken by the National In combination, this creates highly complex Infrastructure Commission (NIC) and the Government political and administrative overlapping through its National Industrial Strategy. It will inform geographies that can result in un-coordinated, spending priorities and assist with the apportionment ad hoc and disjointed spatial outcomes. of need throughout the megaregion to provide consistency between local plans.
Approach
Barton Willmore’s approach to the blueprint is developed around four key themes that can be separated out into a number of strategic priorities.
1 The Midlands Engine Strategy highlights an ambition to create 300,000 jobs up to 2030, whilst the West Midlands Combined Authority’s Strategic Economic Plan (that occupies a smaller area and falls within the Midlands Engine geography) seeks to 2 UK2070 Commission (2019) Strategic Spatial Development in the create 504,000 jobs up to 2030. West Midlands—a Long View Perspective. 17
Barton Willmore Methodology and Strategic Approach 18
Complex Administrative Geography of the Midlands 19 20
Analytical Frameworks
Population & Place
The Midlands is home to over 10 million people3. The Midlands’ population is more dispersed compared to other megaregions, meaning it is more expensive for people, goods, and ideas to move around4. It comprises of a series of core cities, smaller cities, rural centres and villages, commuter towns, new towns and de- industrialised areas. The greatest concentration of people reside in its centre with Birmingham, the UK’s second largest city, being the most populous city followed by Coventry. Leicester is technically the largest city in the East Midlands, however this is a result of tight Green Belt boundaries restricting the outward expansion of Nottingham. The areas between urban settlements are predominantly rural, comprising of agricultural land, Green Belt and natural assets. The distribution of the megaregion’s population across these varied cities and settlements demonstrates its diverse urban structure. These areas serve different functions and spatial planning can support them to play different economic and community roles, to enable a network of successful places.
EAST MIDLANDS
The East Midlands has high population growth due to high inward migration5. It is characterised by polycentricity: a network of urban areas interspersed within a more rural environment. There are three main growth areas that are described below6.
Derby, Leicester and Nottingham are the three largest urban areas in the East Midlands and account for approximately half its economic output. The cities are major centres for work, shopping, education, health care, leisure and sport and perform differing but complementary roles. Nottingham has a service
3 House of Commons Library (2019) Regional and country economic indicators. 4 HM Government (2017) Midlands Engine Strategy. 5 House of Commons Library (2019) Regional and country economic indicators. 6 East Midlands Councils (2013) Investing in Opportunity: A prospectus for investment, infrastructure and growth in the East Midlands. Population & Place plan 21 22
sector focus, Derby has a rich manufacturing base and THE MIDLANDS’ NATURAL ASSETS Leicester contains a relatively high proportion of SMEs with associated high business formation rates. D2N2 The Peak District is the megaregion’s sole national is characterised by high self-containment with a high park. It is sparsely populated and a major tourist percentage of workers living in the D2N2 LEP area7. destination. Similarly, the Midlands contains six Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) (Shropshire The Eastern Diamond (Lincoln, Newark, Gainsborough Hills, Wye Valley, Malvern Hills, Cotswolds, Cannock and Grantham) benefits from good linkages with the Chase and Lincolnshire Wolds) that require protection, wider East Midlands via the A46, A1 and rail connections management and maintenance. and is in close proximity to the Humber Estuary that is a major trade gateway. As such, it has significant housing Demographic Trends and economic growth potential, heightened by Midlands Connect’s investment plans. Under the UK2070 Commission’s ‘Attacking the problem Scenario’, all UK regions are expected to see job The Northamptonshire Arc (Corby, Kettering, increases at a uniform rate, rising first in London and Wellingborough, Daventry, and Northampton) is the wider South East and then spreading outwards to forecasted to be one of the fastest growing areas in all core cities and low-growth areas. This will require England; benefitting from excellent cross-boundary enhanced connectivity between the core cities. As links to The Arc (Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford such, there will be less pressure for housing in London (CAMKOX)) and the wider South-East. and the wider South East as the economy becomes more balanced. This will have an impact on migration WEST MIDLANDS and housing demand in the core cities outside of London, such as those in The Midlands. Under this Up to the 1970s, the West Midlands was labelled the growth scenario, the population of the Midlands is ‘engine room’ of the UK economy and growth was predicted to rise from 10.1million in 2011 to 14.7 million accommodated through new and expanded ‘overspill’ in 207110. The number of houses will increase from 4.3 towns beyond the Green Belt, including Redditch million in 2011 to 6 million in 2071 with net land take for and Telford. Urban and brownfield renewal schemes housing predicted to increase by 59% between 2011- followed; partly instigated by the loss of manufacturing 2071 (using a 2005 baseline). Birmingham is projected and traditional industry jobs leading to high to grow by an additional 150,000 people by 2031 unemployment8. meaning new homes and jobs will be required, as well Today, growth is focussed in and around the as the creation of quality environments for residents, 11 conurbation with Birmingham, Coventry and workers, and visitors to thrive . Elsewhere, Coventry Wolverhampton comprising approximately half of and Corby are expected to have the highest rates of its population. This means growth initiatives have population growth in the UK, between 28.4% and 40.5% more of an urban focus. A key feature of its structure to 2039. Conversely, other authorities will experience is its tightly drawn Green Belt and this urban-rural much lower growth, with Tamworth experiencing dichotomy is often reflected in different administrative population decline. arrangements and political perspectives9. Large-scale infrastructure projects, such as HS2, serve as a catalyst for growth in the conurbation.
7 D2N2 (2019) Vision 2030. 8 UK2070 Commission (2019) Strategic Spatial Development in the West Midlands—a Long View Perspective 10 UK2070 Commission (May 2019) Fairer and Stronger: Rebalancing the UK Economy. 9 UK2070 Commission (2019) ‘Strategic Spatial Development in the West Midlands—a Long View Perspective’ 11 Birmingham City Council (2017) Birmingham Development Plan. 23
Challenge 2: Tackling Unprecedented Growth
Unprecedented growth in the Midlands up to without its issues. It is notoriously slow to deliver 2070 will require additional development land as a result of barriers to redevelopment, such as for the large-scale provision of homes, jobs multiple ownerships, site size, the relocation of and infrastructure; increase demand for basic existing users, contaminated land, highways access, resources, such as food and water; necessitate issues over local amenity/neighbouring uses, and a the optimisation/maximisation of existing and new lack of buildings or social and physical infrastructure. infrastructure in waste management, transport, Indeed, many of these sites are simply not in the digital, energy, water and wastewater, flood risk and right locations meaning they are not commercially solid waste; place increasing pressure on public attractive. Each one of these issues can take years sector resources, utility provision and healthcare; to resolve and many of the solutions will not be viable but also create opportunities and innovation without major public sector investment/intervention. as demand for construction, teaching and law There are also long lead-in times associated with enforcement increases. the development of brownfield land so an effective, well-funded remediation programme cannot be The Government are rightly prioritising development solely relied upon to deliver the requisite residential on brownfield land and local planning authorities and employment land at the speed necessary to meet are relying on it to deliver, in some cases, large existing demand without developing greenfield sites proportions of their overall housing and employment as well. However, the Green Belt has a constraining growth targets. For example, the West Midlands influence on the delivery of strategic sites for Combined Authority is seeking to re-develop an housing13 and employment14 land, particularly within additional 1,600 hectares to provide high quality the West Midlands, where it has a ‘noose’ effect. industrial land12. Brownfield land is, however, not
Midlands population growth Modelling to 2070 Midlands job growth Modelling to 2070
6.8m 14.7m 5.7m 12.3m 4.6m 4.7m 10.1m 10.3m
2011 2031 2051 2071 2011 2031 2051 2071
13 GL Hearn Study (2018) Greater Birmingham HMA Strategic Growth Study. 12 West Midlands Combined Authority (2016) Strategic Economic 14 West Midlands Local Authority Chief Executives (2015) West Plan. Midlands Strategic Employment Sites Study. 24
In England and Wales as a whole, the gap in life expectancy between the most prosperous and Challenge 3: most deprived areas is approximately 19 years15. The Responding to an Ageing Population Midlands contains local authority areas with some of the lowest life expectancy figures in the UK. These As the ratio of the dependent population increases include Telford and Wrekin, Stoke, Wolverhampton, this can put a strain on public sector resources and Sandwell, Northampton, Corby, Leicester, Ashfield, have significant financial and societal implications. Nottingham and Lincoln. Conversely, Derbyshire Dales This will have a profound impact on the Midland’s and Stratford-on-Avon are in the highest quintile in economy: the public purse, health industry, terms of life expectancy. This demonstrates quality of housing market and transport system. This will be life inequalities throughout the region that could be more pronounced in those areas with the highest exacerbated without strategic intervention. ratio of dependents. Consequently, it is identified as a ‘grand challenge’ in the Government’s National Whilst birth rates have been levelling off, people are Industrial Strategy that looks to harness the living for longer and one in three children born in the power of innovation in care and personal services, UK today can now expect to live to 10016. In 50 years’, which is forecast to be one of the fastest growing there is projected to be an additional 8.2 million people occupations. aged 65 years and over in the UK – a population roughly the size of present-day London17. In comparison to the In terms of pay, productivity, skill levels and rest of the UK, the Midland’s core cities have a relatively occupational make-up there is a clear north-south young population whilst the suburban and rural divide between London and the south and the rest of counties are ageing rapidly. For example, by 2036, 1 in 3 the UK. Celebrated as the birthplace of the industrial people in Lincolnshire will be over the age of 65. revolution in the 18th century, The Midlands now suffers from low levels of productivity relative to the rest of the UK. This is, in part, due to the demise of manufacturing industries in certain areas and a lack of follow-up strategic intervention. The West Midlands has the lowest employment rate of any mayoral authority (71%), and an above average unemployment rate of 5.7%18. It is notable that The Midlands has no authority in the highest quartile for academic qualification attainment. The Midlands has authorities with the lowest attainment for working adults, with the Greater Lincolnshire LEP area one of the worst performing areas. Regions such as Greater Lincolnshire and Staffordshire are suffering from a lack of access to skilled, well-paid jobs.
15 ONS (2017) Health state life expectancies by national deprivation deciles, England and Wales: 2015 to 2017: https://bit.ly/2VV81bc 16 HM Government (2017) ‘Industrial Strategy: Building a Britain Fit for the Future’. 17 Office of National Statistics (2019) Overview of the UK population 18 HM Government (2019) West Midlands Local Industrial Strategy. 25
Population change from 2014-2039 by Local Authority
Years, quintiles of Local Authorities ranked by life expectancy 26
Pay, productivity, skill levels and occupational make-up in the UK, by region Residents aged 16 to 64 in employment with NVQ4 by Local Authority in 2017 Percentage (%)
Midlands Mega Region 41.6 - 64.5 Midlands Mega Region 41.6 - 64.5
13.8 - 30 64.6 - 91.1 13.8 - 30 64.6 - 91.1
30.1 - 41.5 30.1 - 41.5
N
Life Expectancy 2014 ONS
C Spatial Policy & Analysis Laboratory, Manchester Urban Institute C Spatial Policy & Analysis Laboratory, Manchester Urban Institute
Unemployment Rate UnemploymentResidents aged 16 rate to 64 (claimant in employment count) with by NVQ4 Local by Authority Local Authority in 2019 in 2017 Percentage (%) Inequalities in wellbeing and social mobility Midlands Mega Region 41.6 - 64.5
13.8 - 30 64.6 - 91.1
30.1 - 41.5
N
C Spatial Policy & Analysis Laboratory, Manchester Urban Institute 27
Residents aged 16 to 64 in employment with NVQ4+ by Local Authority in 2017
Sub-Regional Dynamics & Cross Staffordshire has functional links to Cheshire, with significant commuter flows from rural areas into Boundary Matters Greater Manchester where people work20, facilitated by connectivity along the M6 Corridor. Stafford, Stoke- According to the Government’s Industrial Strategy, on-Trent, Chesterfield and Crewe are linked together strong local economies tend to have some key through The Constellation Partnership, which is a attributes. They have a good supply of skilled labour, are partnership between two LEPs aimed at capturing well-connected, have land available for homes/offices/ growth opportunities21. Lincolnshire and Derby and factories and have a rich innovation eco-system19. The Nottingham (D2N2) both have functional links with importance of cross-boundary relationships should not Yorkshire and Humber22. North Northamptonshire has be underestimated as often the requisite homes, jobs links to the South East: so much so that the South and community facilities cannot be achieved within East Growth Area, comprising of Corby, Kettering one administrative boundary. For example, housing and and Wellingborough, is referred to as ‘London- employment sites often span across boundaries but still shire’. Gloucestershire is seeking stronger links to have a functional relationship with one-another. The Birmingham through the M5 spine23. economic geography of The Midlands is not constrained by its boundaries and it has a number of functional links to the surrounding megaregions.
20 Cheshire and Warrington Local Enterprise Partnership (2018) Strategic Economic Plan. 21 Constellation Partnership (2018) HS2 Growth Strategy. 22 D2N2 (2018) Vision 2020. 19 HM Government (2017) Industrial Strategy: Building a Britain Fit for the Future. 23 G First LEP (2019) Draft Local Industrial Strategy. 28
quality labour. The Midlands Engine is competing for Challenge 4: Government funding and overseas investment with Delivering Inter-Regional other ‘branded Powerhouses’, such as The Arc and The 26 Connectivity. Northern Powerhouse . It is important that, through the linking of its Local Industrial Strategies, it carves Transport and infrastructure planning also needs out a ‘placed-based’ comparative advantage that draws to recognise inter-regional connectivity and the upon its locational attributes, rich manufacturing base functional economic relationships with areas and goods-based exports (i.e. the whole equals more outside the Midlands. In the future, it is crucial the than the sum of the parts). Following the revocation megaregion capitalises on major infrastructure of Regional Spatial Strategies, this has proved to be projects, such as the transformational effect HS2 difficult to achieve through the ‘Localism’ agenda will have (noting that this also has the potential to and Duty-to-Co-operate. Local Industrial Strategies further accentuate the loss of skills and talent to (LISs) are the Government’s mechanism for achieving London and the wider south east). Whilst Midlands this and there are currently two published in The Connect are implementing improvements to the Midlands (The West Midlands LIS in May 2019 and Midlands Rail Hub, more needs to be done on a South East Midlands LIS in July 2019) with the others regional scale to reduce fragmentation24. currently under preparation. The South East Midlands LIS, however, has aligned itself with The Arc, despite overlap with The Midlands Engine geography with Historically, many of the functional relationships Northamptonshire having key commuter links between described above have been stronger that those Northampton and Milton Keynes along the M127. This between the West Midlands and East Midlands. This raises questions around whether The Arc represents a presents a challenge for The Midlands Engine as an barrier or steppingstone to greater linkages between overarching functional economic entity and vehicle The Midlands and London. For example, The Arc could for growth, with the A5 representing a rough dividing stifle The Midland’s ability to innovate by attracting line between the two. This is, in large part, due to young, talented and skilled individuals, diverting public intra-regional, east-west connectivity issues that and private investment away and limiting the potential have hampered the formation of these functional of development and investment choosing to move out relationships, and the fact the West Midlands of London and the South East28. is dominated by the cities of Birmingham and Wolverhampton, compared to the polycentricity of the Polycentric vs Monocentric Model East Midlands. This raises questions around whether there is adequate evidence around this functional relationship to justify the governance arrangement under the banner of The Midlands Engine. Drawing an unrepresentative administrative boundary could distort spatial policy by neglecting more important functional linkages elsewhere25. Monocentric Model Polycentric / Dispersed Model Population Density Given the functional links currently in place, there is a danger of talent and business leaking to areas Low High outside of the Midlands if it does not create the right environment for growth and prosperity to retain high- 26 Estates Gazette (20/07/2019) ‘Battle of the Engines: Arc is Most Active’. 27 The National Infrastructure Commission (2016) Cambridge, Milton 24 Midlands Connect (2019) Midlands Engine Rail. Keynes, Oxford, Northampton Growth Corridor 25 UK2070 Commission (2019) ‘Strategic Spatial Development in the 28 UK2070 Commission (2019) ‘Strategic Spatial Development in the West Midlands—a Long View Perspective’ West Midlands—a Long View Perspective’ 29
Cross Boundary Relationships and FEMAs Plan
Local Industrial Strategy (LIS) Plan 30
Transport & Connectivity
The Midlands megaregion has a strong economic geography sitting at the heart of the UK’s economy, harnessing growth potential via its strategic road, rail and aviation linkages. As a result, 92% of the UK’s population are within a 4-hour drive from the Midlands29. These strategic linkages enable the megaregion to import/export to national and international markets and provide excellent access to labour pools making it a highly attractive location for businesses and their headquarters.
Road » M6, M5, M1, M40, M42, M5 » A Roads (A38, A34, A46, A444, A5)
Rail » Existing network of railway connections » HS2 » Phase 1 stations (Birmingham Curzon Street Station, Solihull Interchange) » Phase 2a (Stafford) » Phase 2b (East Midlands Hub – Toton, Chesterfield)
Strategic » East Midlands Gateway (Derby) Rail Freight » Birch Coppice (Tamworth) Interchanges » Hams Hall (Lea Marston) » DIRFT (Rugby) » Northampton Gateway (Northampton)
Aviation » Birmingham International » East Midlands Airport
AVIATION
Birmingham Airport has grown by around 40% over the last five years to around 13 million passengers per annum. The airport contributes £1.5 billion GVA that is projected to rise to £2.1 billion by 2033. This level of growth has put pressure on the airport’s existing capacity and facilities. A £500 million programme of investment is planned over the next 15 years which will see the expansion and modernisation of the terminal building, airport services and facilities. There will be a connection with HS2 and a focus on long-haul routes to high growth economies, such as India, China and north Atlantic routes30.
29 HM Government (2017) Midlands Engine Strategy. 30 Birmingham Airport (2018) Masterplan 2018. Transport & Connectivity plan 31 Catchments served by 30 minute drivetime (off peak) increments from the Midlands Midlands Region Drivetime (30 min increments)
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Catchments served by 30 minute drivetime (off peak) increments from the Midlands Midlands Region Drivetime (30 min increments)
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East Midlands Airport is the UK’s busiest pure cargo HS2 will serve over 25 stations nationwide, airport handling over 320,000 tonnes of flown cargo per connecting around 30 million people. Three new annum with approximately 7,000 people working on site. stations are planned within The Midlands and With its connectivity by road, rail (including a strategic will improve links to London and the north. The rail freight interchange (SRFI)) and air, it serves as an Interchange Station in Solihull will form part of the important hub for growth at both a regional and national UK Central Hub that will become one of the best- scale31. The new Nestle/XPO distribution centre at East connected places in the UK, whilst Curzon Street Midlands Gateway will accommodate cutting-edge Station will provide another key interchange: acting robotics that will ensure the continued growth of this as a catalyst for investment in Birmingham City transport and logistics ‘sweet spot’ at the tip of the Golden Centre linking to the Enterprise Zone. The new Triangle32. East Midlands Hub Station at Toton will enhance connectivity between the East Midlands and the rest of the UK resulting in 84,000 jobs and £4.8 billion GVA Challenge 5: by 204336. There are also proposals to harness growth Increasing International through the Stafford Station Gateway Masterplan and Trade and Exports. its associated regeneration proposals in Chesterfield. The rail freight industry in the UK brings an estimated The Midlands acts as a gateway to the global £1.6 billion per year in productivity gains for business, economy through the Birmingham and East Midlands reduced road congestion and environmental benefits. Airports33. Lincolnshire also has strong linkages Each tonne of freight transported by rail reduces with the Grimsby and Immingham Ports. In 2016, carbon emissions by 76% compared to road as it exported over £43 billion worth of goods and each freight train removes 43 to 76 lorries from the currently trades with 178 countries worldwide. In network37. SRFIs at East Midlands, Hams Hall, Birch fact, it is the only UK megaregion with an export Coppice and DIRFT have all resulted in agglomeration surplus to China34. There is a huge opportunity post- due to businesses recognising the strategic benefits Brexit that the Midlands must capitalise on. This is a of being located nearby. A further SRFI has recently key aspect of the Midlands Engine Strategy facilitated been approved at Northampton Gateway. through the Midlands Engine Trade and Investment Programme Board that will explore opportunities in The extension of the West Midlands Metro network international markets. Decisions in spatial planning will allow for the smoother flow of people through the must support this objective in the future. conurbation and the East/West extension to Dudley/ Brierley Hill has been secured through Transforming Cities Funding38. The Nottingham Express Transit RAIL (NET) has been similarly successful and Coventry’s new tram system is due to be operational by 202439. Birmingham’s New Street Station has been successfully re-developed and serves as a central hub. It is the sixth busiest railway station in the UK and the busiest outside London, with 43.7 million passenger entries and exits between April 2017 and March 2018 making it the busiest 36 East Midlands Councils (2017) East Midlands HS2 Growth 35 interchange station outside London . Strategy: World Class – Locally Driven. 37 Department for Transport (2016) Rail Freight Strategy – Moving 31 East Midlands Airport (2015) Sustainable Development Plan. Britain Ahead. 32 Property Week (10/05/2019) SEGRO’s Great Expectations. 38 HM Government (2019) West Midlands Local Industrial Strategy 33 HM Government (2017) Midlands Engine Strategy. (Page 60). 34 Midlands Engine (2017) The Midlands Engine Vision for Growth. 39 Coventry City Council (2019) First Look at Coventry’s innovative Light Rail Vehicle. 35 Office of Rain and Road (2018) Estimates of Station Usage 2017-18. 34
ROAD DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY
The UK economy depends on a resilient, reliable The Midlands has several digital connectivity assets Midlands Motorway Hub. The Midlands Motorway Hub including the Future Mobility Zone, Midlands Future spans key sections of the M42, M5 and M6 and lies at Mobility (MFM), located between Birmingham, Solihull the heart of the regional and national Strategic Road and Coventry; the Worcestershire 5G Consortium that Network (SRN). The Hub provides direct access to has been selected by Government as a 5G testbed; Birmingham Airport and facilitates access from the and Connected Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) trials are South and West to East Midlands Airport. The Hub currently taking place in Birmingham, Coventry and forms a critical part of national connectivity to ports Wolverhampton. The megaregion is also home to and airports including Bristol, Liverpool, Manchester, Westfield and RDM who are the leading specialist CAV Southampton and the South East40. vehicle manufacturers.
The Midlands has some of the most congested roads in the country, with four out of the top fifteen in Birmingham41. Mitigation measures, including the M6 Toll Road, have been introduced to alleviate congestion and deter car use. Midlands Connect has identified bottlenecks and congestion hotspots, such as the M6, M42 and A46, and is putting together plans to reduce congestion.
350,000 Live and Work in District
300,000 In-Commuters
Out-Commuters 250,000
200,000