Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across South Warwickshire Districts Key Messages

Rural & Urban Rural Population The Eleven Rural Isolation Lower Super Output Areas Age Breakdown Indicators

Stratford-on-Avon District population living in Eleven indicators have been identified and agreed by the Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) across rural LSOAs: 96,870 working group, representing different aspects of social exclusion South Warwickshire for those deemed to be rurally isolated. 159 Under 18 18,415

18 - 24 5,744 Access to Car / Van – percentage of households of Stratford-on-Avon District’s LSOAs are 1 without access to a car/van classified as rural (59 out of 73) 25 - 34 7,914 81% Road distance to a Post Office (km) – average road 2 distance to a Post Office 35 - 44 10,857 of Warwick District’s LSOAs are classified as Road distance to a GP Premises (km) – average road 45 - 54 15,352 3 16% rural (14 out of 86) distance to a GP 55 - 64 13,596 Road Distance to a Food Store (km) – average road 4 distance to a Food Store Rural & Urban 65 + 24,992 Road Distance to a Primary School (km) – average Population Breakdown 5 road distance to a Primary School Rural Population Stratford-on-Avon District Warwick District People on Income Support - number of claimants Gender Breakdown 6 (proportion of population aged 16 years plus)

23,622 The gender split for the population living in rural People in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) - number 7 of claimants aged under 69 years (proportion of population LSOAs is: aged 0 – 69 years) Households in Fuel Poverty – Proportion of 8 households which are fuel poor (%) 96,870 People in receipt of Pension Credits – number of 9 claimants - proportion of population aged 60 years+ 79.7% of Stratford-on-Avon 16.8% of Warwick District’s population live in District’s population live People in receipt of Attendance Allowance - number of claimants rural LSOAs in rural LSOAs 10 (proportion of population aged 65 years plus)

261,453 people live in South Warwickshire, of which 120,492 live within the rural LSOAs of both Stratford-on-Avon and 49% 51% 11 Income Deprivation measure Warwick Districts. Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Stratford-on-Avon District Population Projections

The 2016 mid-year population estimates have recently been released by ONS and reveal that Stratford-on-Avon District is home to 122,276 people. The chart below shows the predicted population growth for the 65 and over population using ONS’s 2014 population projection figures for the district.

50,000 51% Total Population Aged 65+ Stratford-on-Avon District is Stratford-on-Avon District estimated to see an increase in its aged 65+ population of 51% by 2039. 40,000 47% The male population is expected 30,000 to see the highest level of growth in the district - 47% for Female Population Aged 65+ those aged 65+ by 2039.

20,000 43% Male Population Aged 65+ The female population aged 65+ is expected to grow by 43% in the district by 2039. 10,000

Population (thousands) 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2039

Source: Office for National Statistics Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across South Warwickshire Districts Key Messages

Top 10 Rural LSOAs in Top 10 Rural LSOAs in South Warwickshire South Warwickshire - Ranking Map

The overall rank of LSOAs which are deemed to be the most rurally isolated using the eleven The darkest colours on the map represent the most rurally isolated areas while indicators are presented in the table below. The worst performing LSOA for the eleven indicators the paler colours show those that are considered the least isolated. is ranked as number 1. The top ten areas are all located in Stratford-on-Avon District.

Overall Rank Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) District

1 Long Itchington East Stratford-on-Avon Kenilworth 2 Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook Stratford-on-Avon Leamington 3 Wellesbourne West Stratford-on-Avon Warwick 4 Bidford East, Waterloo & Broom Stratford-on-Avon 5 Henley East & Beaudesert Stratford-on-Avon Alcester Stratford Town 6 Studley South Stratford-on-Avon 7 Alcester North & Conway Stratford-on-Avon 8 Long Compton Stratford-on-Avon 9 Deppers Bridge, Chester & Kings Stratford-on-Avon 10 Alcester East & Island Stratford-on-Avon

The most isolated LSOA is Long Itchington East; however the data shows that it does not feature particularly highly for any individual indicator. The worst ranking is for the number of households where people are claiming Income Support benefits (ranks 10th) and the number of households where people are receiving Attendance Allowance (ranks 11th).

© Crown Copyright and database right 2017. Ordnance Survey 100019520 Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Ranking Table & Heat Map

The top ten areas are ranked below for each indicator, where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA. The LSOA ranks for each of the 11 indicators are then summed to determine the highest and lowest scoring LSOAs.

Indicator 1 Indicator 2 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 Indicator 5 Indicator 6 Indicator 7 Indicator 8 Indicator 9 Indicator 10 Indicator 11 Indicator Ranking Without Road Road Road Road Income Disability Fuel Pension Attendance Income by Lower Super Access to Distance to Distance Distance Distance Support Living Poverty Credits Allowance Deprivation Output Area Car/Van Post O ce to GP to Food to Primary Allowance Store School 1 Long Itchington East 12 36 18 32 60 10 16 28 17 11 16 Kineton Castle, Lt. 11 49 63 44 9 2 Kineton& Combrook 44 18 13 7 5 9 3 Wellesbourne West 17 38 41 38 9 13 9 67 14 15 11 Bidford East, Waterloo 4 & Broom 19 47 55 34 47 6 4 52 8 7 5 Henley East 5 & Beaudesert 7 43 62 53 52 11 3 43 2 9 4 6 Studley South 6 46 58 70 65 2 2 37 5 2 1 Alcester North 7 & Conway 2 34 59 49 73 1 1 59 1 12 3 8 Long Compton 49 8 1 1 6 57 54 3 39 50 27 Deppers Bridge, 9 Chester & Kings 20 39 37 31 35 12 10 25 22 53 17 Alcester East 10 & Island 1 42 72 63 54 8 6 47 4 6 2 Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 1 - Long Itchington Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 10th for the indicator that East LSOA measures people claiming income support with 1.1% of people aged 10 10th over 16 resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support

Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks in 11th place for the indicator that measures people claiming attendance allowance with 15.7% 40 11th of eligible people in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Households are claiming attendance allowance

Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating 69 12th that they do not have access to either. Households with no access to a car or van

Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 16th for the indicator which measures income deprivation. It is the 21st most deprived LSOA 19,374 16th for income deprivation out of the 73 LSOAs in Stratford District. UK ranking - where 1 is most deprived

Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 16th for the indicator that measures disability living allowance with 3.2% of eligible people claiming the 30 16th benefit. Households are claiming disability living allowance

Ranked where 1 is the worst performing Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 17th for the indicator that measures and 73 is the best performing LSOA people claiming pension credits with 9.6% of eligible people claiming 30 17th the benefit. Households are claiming LSOA Mosaic Profile pension credits Largest Groups G Rural Reality 71% Ranks Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 18th for the indicator that measures road distance to a GP. The average distance to a GP for a property in 4.5km Country Living 25% Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that A they do not have access to either. 18th the LSOA is 4.5km. Average distance to a GP for a property Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 2 - Kineton Castle, Lt. Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks in 5th place for Kineton & Combrook LSOA the indicator that measures people claiming attendance allowance 65 5th with 20.2% of people aged over 65 claiming the allowance. Households are claiming attendance allowance

Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 7th for the indicator which measures the proportion of households which are 129 7th fuel poor with 21.0% of households in the LSOA being in poverty. Households are considered fuel poor

Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 9th for the indicator that measures people in receipt of pension credits with 55 9th 13.7% of eligible people claiming benefits. Households are claiming pension credits Ranked where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 9th for the indicator which measures income deprivation. 14,189 LSOA Mosaic Profile 9th UK ranking - where 1 is Largest Groups most deprived G Rural Reality 38% Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 11th for the Country Living 29% Ranks A indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.7% of 95 11th households stating that they do not have access to either. Households with no access to a car or van

Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 13th for the indicator that measures disability living allowance with 3.4% of 40 13th eligible people claiming the benefit. Households are claiming disability living allowance

Ranks Kineton Castle, Lt. Kineton & Combrook LSOA ranks 18th for the indicator that measures people claiming income support with 10

Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that 18th they do not have access to either. 0.9% of people aged over 16 resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 7 - Alcester North & Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 1st for the indicator Conway LSOA that measures people claiming income support with 1.8% of 20 1st people aged over 16 resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support

Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 1st for the indicator that measures disability living allowance with 5.4% of 60 1st people claiming the benefit. Claimants of disability living allowance

Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 1st for the indicator that measures people in receipt of pension credits with 19.9% of 75 1st eligible people claiming benefits. Claimants of pension credits

Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 2nd for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 23.4% of households 147 2nd stating that they do not have access to either. Households with no access to a car or van Ranked where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 3rd for the indicator 10,557 which measures income deprivation. LSOA Mosaic Profile 3rd UK ranking - where 1 is Largest Groups most deprived N Vintage Value 20.5% Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks in 12th place for the indicator M Family Basics 19.8% that measures people claiming attendance allowance with 15.3% 45 12th of people aged over 65 claiming the allowance. Claimants of attendance allowance

Ranks Alcester North & Conway LSOA ranks 34th for the indicator that measures road distance to a Post Office. The top and bottom 1.5km

Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that 34th Average distance to a Post they do not have access to either. ranking LSOAs have distances of 5.5km and 0.3km respectively. Office for a property Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 10 - Alcester East Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 1st for the indicator & Island LSOA which measures access to a car or van with 24.1% of households 160 1st stating that they do not have access to either. Households with no access to a car or van

Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 2nd for the indicator 10,550 2nd which measures income deprivation. UK ranking - where 1 is most deprived

Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 4th for the indicator that measures people in receipt of pension credits with 15.9% of 85 4th eligible people claiming benefits. Claimants of pension credits

Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks in 6th place for the indicator that measures people claiming attendance allowance with 16.9% 70 6th of people aged over 65 claiming the allowance. Claimants of attendance allowance Ranked where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 6th for the indicator that measures disability living allowance with 4.3% of people 50 LSOA Mosaic Profile 6th claiming the benefit. Claimants of disability Largest Groups living allowance N Vintage Value 28.2% Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 8th for the indicator E Suburban Stability 16.0% that measures people claiming income support with 1.2% of 15 8th people aged over 16 resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support

Ranks Alcester East & Island LSOA ranks 42nd for the indicator that measures road distance to a Post Office. The top and bottom 1.2km

Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that 42nd Average distance to a Post they do not have access to either. ranking LSOAs have distances of 5.5km and 0.3km respectively. Office for a property Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 13 - Lighthorne & Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 4th for the indicator Lighthorne Heath LSOA that measures road distance to a GP. The top ranking LSOA has a 6.9km 4th distance of 0.5km. Average distance to a GP for a property

Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 5th for the indicator that measures people claiming income support with 1.5% of 15 5th people aged over 16 resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support

Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 9th for the indicator which measures the proportion of households which are fuel 111 9th poor with 20.3% of households in the LSOA being in poverty. Households are considered fuel poor

Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 10th for the indicator that measures road distance to a food store. The average 3.3km 10th distance to a food store for a property in the LSOA is 1.7km. Average distance to a food store for a property Ranked where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 10th for the indicator 14,602 which measures income deprivation. LSOA Mosaic Profile 10th UK ranking - where 1 is Largest Groups most deprived G Rural Reality 59% Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 14th for the A Country Living 37% indicator that measures disability living allowance with 3.3% of 35 14th eligible people claiming the benefit. Households are claiming disability living allowance

Ranks Lighthorne & Lighthorne Heath LSOA ranks 31st for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 9.6% of households 52

Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that 31st Households with no access they do not have access to either. stating that they do not have access to either. to a car or van Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Number 22 - Quinton LSOA Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 4th for the indicator which measures the proportion of households which are fuel poor with 21.6% of 241 4th households in the LSOA being in poverty. Households are considered fuel poor

Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks in 17th place for the indicator that measures people claiming attendance allowance with 13.4% of people aged 80 17th over 65 claiming the allowance. Households are claiming attendance allowance

Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 19th for the indicator which measures 20,326 income deprivation. 19th UK ranking - where 1 is most deprived

Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 20th for the indicator that measures people in receipt of pension credits with 9.1% of eligible people 70 20th claiming benefits. Households are claiming pension credits Ranked where 1 is the worst performing and 73 is the best performing LSOA Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 24th for the indicator that measures road distance to a Primary School. The average distance to a 1.5km LSOA Mosaic Profile 24th Primary School for a property in the LSOA is 2.1km. Average distance to a Largest Groups Primary school for a property A Country Living 42% Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 26th for the indicator that measures people G Rural Reality 35% claiming income support with 0.6%of people aged over 16 26 26th resident in the LSOA claiming the benefit. Claimants of income support

Ranks Quinton LSOA ranks 32nd for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 9.1% of households stating that they 101

Long Itchington East LSOA ranks 12th for the indicator which measures access to a car or van with 15.4% of households stating that do not have access to either. Households with no access they do not have access to either. 32nd to a car or van Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Mosaic Analysis

Mosaic is a tool for understanding household and customer types, and allocates every household in the county to a category. Mosaic operates at two levels – Groups and Types. There are 15 Groups, which are then sub-divided into 66 Types, based on likely characteristics. It is built from Experian’s UK Consumer Dynamics Database and uses a total of 400 data variables. The Mosaic dataset has been used to help provide a profile of residents living within the most socially isolated LSOAs of South Warwickshire.

Warwickshire Mosaic Profile Rural Areas Mosaic Profile Largest Groups Largest Groups H Aspiring Homemakers 10.7% G Rural Reality 25% A Country Living 10.6% A Country Living 24%

Rural Reality Country Living

Householders living in inexpensive homes in Well-off owners in rural locations enjoying village communities the benefits of country life

Key Features: Key Features:

Rural locations Rural locations Village and outlying houses Well-off homeowners Agricultural employment Attractive detached homes Most are homeowners Higher self-employment Affordable value homes High car ownership Slow internet speeds High use of internet Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Top Ten Rurally Isolated LSOAs - Mosaic Breakdown (total proportion by Mosaic Group for the ten LSOAs)

A D G J M Country Living Domestic Success Rural Reality Rental Hubs Family Basics Families with limited Well-o owners in rural Thriving families who are Householders living in Educated young people resources who have to locations enjoying the busy bringing up children inexpensive homes in privately renting in urban budget to make ends benets of country life and following careers village communities neighbourhoods meet 24% 3% 25% 0% 7% B E H K N Prestige Positions Suburban Stability Aspiring Homemakers Modest Traditions Vintage Value Established families in Mature suburban owners Younger households Mature homeowners of Elderly people reliant on large detached homes living settled lives in settling down in housing value homes enjoying support to meet nancial living upmarket lifestyles mid-range houses priced within their means stable lifestyles or practical needs 5% 6% 6% 5% 9% C F I L O City Prosperity Senior Security Urban Cohesion Transient Renters Muncipal Challenge High status city dwellers Elderly people with assets Residents of settled urban Single people privately Urban renters of social living in central locations and pursuing careers with who are enjoying a communities with a strong renting low cost homes for housing facing an array high rewards comfortable retirement sense of identity the short term of challenges 0% 5% 0% 2% 2%

Source: Experian Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Mosaic Groups - Top Ten Most Rurally Isolated LSOAs Breakdown

Deppers Alcester Bidford East, Henley East Kineton Castle, Long Alcester East Bridge, Lt. Kineton & Long Studley Wellesbourne North & Island Waterloo Chester & and Itchington Percentage of Households in Mosaic Groups Combrook Compton South West & Conway & Broom Kings Beaudesert East Total All Groups 650 694 817 674 759 652 1,059 475 663 558 A A Country Living 0% 0% 6.7% 44.4% 12.6% 29.3% 85.3% 24.6% 3.2% 0.9%

B B Prestige Positions 0% 1.2% 2.1% 2.4% 6.2% 13.3% 0.3% 2.1% 14.2% 6.8%

C C City Prosperity 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

D D Domestic Success 0% 7.8% 9.4% 1.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0% 0.6% 1.5% 6.6%

E E Suburban Stability 6.6% 16.0% 7.3% 2.1% 5.8% 0.8% 0% 0% 6.6% 23.7%

F F Senior Security 4.9% 11.4% 3.9% 0.9% 11.5% 0.9% 0% 0% 8.7% 11.1%

G G Rural Reality 9.2% 5.3% 42.2% 46.9% 25.4% 37.9% 14.3% 71.4% 3.8% 9.9%

H H Aspiring Homemakers 7.7% 5.0% 17.1% 1.3% 5.1% 1.4% 0.1% 1.1% 10.6% 10.4%

I I Urban Cohesion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

J J Rental Hubs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

K K Modest Traditions 17.7% 7.1% 3.2% 0% 1.3% 1.2% 0% 0% 17.3% 1.1%

L L Transient Renters 10.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0% 2.4% 3.5% 0% 0.2% 5.4% 0.5%

M M Family Basics 19.8% 14.0% 2.8% 0% 5.9% 2.1% 0% 0% 12.2% 14.2%

N N Vintage Value 20.5% 28.2% 2.2% 0% 13.7% 5.8% 0% 0% 13.6% 11.3%

O O Muncipal Challenge 2.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0% 4.9% 1.7% 0% 0% 2.9% 1.3%

Source: Experian2017 Produced by the Insight Service, July 2017 Rural Isolation Across Stratford-on-Avon District Focus Key Messages

Communicating to Mosaic Groups

A G Country Living Rural Reality Well-o owners in rural locations enjoying the benets of country life Householders living in inexpensive homes in village communities

Key Features of Group Key Features of Group Rural locations Higher self-employment Rural locations Most are homeowners Well-o homeowners High car ownership Village and outlying houses Aordable value homes Attractive detached homes High use of internet Agricultural employment Slow internet speeds

Country Living consists of a uent people who can aord to live in pleasant Rural Reality are people who live in rural communities and generally own their rural locations surrounded by agricultural landscapes. This population is relatively low cost homes. Their moderate incomes come mostly from divided between those still in work and retired people. These people live in employment with local rms or from running their own small business. They attractive, spacious detached homes that are often period properties or are a mix of families, mature couples and older singles living in rural locations named buildings, and the majority are owned. Incomes are good, either in lower cost housing. Some live in developments that have sprung up around derived from occupational pensions, commuting to well-paid professional jobs villages, others in scattered hamlets or in remote communities. Seventy per or running successful farms or their own businesses. Country Living contains cent of this group own their own homes, while others rent from social landlords. the highest proportion of self-employed people of any group. Asset holdings in Overall more people are employed than retired. Those employed may work in the form of stocks and shares are high. agriculture and related industries, or in local manufacturing or retail.

How do households in this Group prefer to be How do households in this Group prefer to be communicated with? communicated with?

Internet Face to Face Letter Internet Telephone Face to Face Use of Digital Technology Use of Digital Technology Although broadband speeds may be low, the internet is used for practical Rural Reality are unlikely to use digital technology in their work, and slower purposes as it gives this group access to a broader range of products and broadband speeds can limit internet use at home. However they sometimes use services than are available locally. The latest technology is not high on their auction sites for buying and selling items, and order groceries from mainstream agenda and mobiles aren’t used extensively, probably due to less than reliable supermarkets online. signals.