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Noun-Los-Pi 1511 1214'HO 1.,:, 4, DOCUMENT,RISUME 17' N 4 tiv ss 11 Noun-los-pi 1511 1214'HO 1.,:, 4, DOCUMENT,RISUME 17' N 4 . 1 'ED 1061962 1 EA 007 155 a. 41 k ] ?,4A 41.V AuTHOR Padbary, Peter; Wilkins,'Diane . TITLE The Future: A Bibliography of Issges and Forecast,inq0 Techniques. Exchange Bibliography No. 279. i INSTITUTION COuncil of Planning Librarians, Montieelao, ill. ,... ,)',. PUB DATE fk Apr 72 NOTE- 104p. t . \ , ''' s -AVAILABLE FROM 'Council of Planning Librarians,P.O. Box x'229, e Monticellc,'Illinois 61856. A$10.00) , ' a EDRS PRICE MF-$0.76,BC-4S,.70 PLUS PORTAGE DESCRIPTORS *Bibliographiesr*Environmenta2 Education;. *Environmental Research; *Futurel lofiSocietyfi *Prediction; Tredictor Variables / Canada ABSTRACT . This bibliography was prepared \for a series of courses offered by the DepartMent of Man-EnVironment Studies at the UniArsity of Waterloo. It contains referencesboth to forecasting techniques and to soMe of the issues likely to ,be important over the next few decades. Eadh reference has been put under a broad general, categoiy. An asterisk indicates the "descriptor field. "'Descriptors were derived from the title of the book or'article, the entries on the subject card in the library, subject catalog, and in some cases the table of conteilts of the book. (Author/MLF), '4, 4. I ouncil of Manning Librarians EgCklANGE BIBLIOGRAPHY .4 April 1972 .411 Y " 7.\ THE, FUTURE: A BibliographylofIssues and Forecasting Techniques I.- 4 Peter Padbury Riesearch Assistant, Deict..of Man-Environmen t.Studies University of Waterloo and 0 Diane Wilkins Refetence Librarian, Dana Porter Arts Libkary University otWate.rloo 1 > OIPAR 'MAE1. OF NEAL IN COUCAVOF4 &WEt.FARE Ij 14...TIONAL ONSTITUTE OF EOVCATSON t`fly - ttf f %4f PkO ' ' Nt F ttr,.. %:- % %I ' R. '%f 4tttf %. % % 4 4. 1'? :1( a Mrs, May Vance, Editor I Post Office Box 229 Monticello, Illinois 61856 k r. V. COUNCIL OF PLANNING LIBRARIANS Exchange Bibliography #279 THE FUTURI: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF ISSUES . ,FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Prepared 1;y: Peter Padbury Research Assistent ept. of Men-Environment Studies O r 0 With the Assistance of: 6 Diene'Wilkins Reference librarian VA, Dena Porter Arts Library University of Waterloo INTRODUCTION This bibliography was prepared fora series of coursGa eu- t;ffled Ontario 2000_- Alternative Futuresi offeredby the Department % off' lari-Environment Studies during1971-72. It Contains references to both forecasting techniques and, tosome of the issues likely to be important over the.. nextjew. decades. Each reference has been put underca broad general category. The categories however, are 'N not exclusive and should a reference not be ableto be located under one category a search should be made under related.categories. )" As asterisk (*) indicates the 4descptor field". After these destriptors are further refined,,Efiey will beof, use when the bibliography is, beipp "computerized ". Descriptors were derived from the title of the book oi article, 6e "tracings."on the sub-; ject card in the Library Subject Catalogue and insome cases the Table of contents of the book.It was decided to include descript- ors for two reasons: ,*(t) They can be used to scan many references quickly. (2) To some extent they can help one to locate other 3 .... A .. 2i -:-:..CPL Ekchang4 . , oliography fi279.; . .- . books, on the saner topic by searchingunder these subject heading 1 in the Subject Catalogue. A word ,of thankd to MargaieeHugginso:Lois Itaciachie and, , Linda }Connolly for their not-quite litfinitleOsbe.realptic), patience. #idErty;I will take'ciimplte tesporisibility for all errors! Peter Padbury , 'TABLE OF CONTENTS r . 'Section FORECASTING TECHNIQUES . GENERAL READINGS ON THE FUTURE 2 . ECOLOGY . 3 rA` NATURAL RESOURCES . 4 POPULATION 5 0 " FOOD 0 6 ECONOMICS 7 9 LIFESTYLE 8 ..i WORK AND LEISURE , i as 9 UTOPIA r 10 . ii. t SOCIAL CHANGE ' . 11 . ., DECISION MAKING.., 12 SCIENCE FICTION 13 EDUCATION 14 TECHNOLOGY s. 4 I 15 THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 16 GUARANTEED INCOME AND POVERTY 17 I BIOLOGY AND MeDICINE4.....t......s. 18 GOVEBNMENT DOCUANTS 19 "?...., . e. 1 F . J.. A 01 k .4% 3. CPL ExchangeBib/iography #279, -. .... a . SECTaON 1' fl, .41 t qORECAStING TECHNIQUES i e % .e , . V - . a - 5 44" gbelson, Marvin. THE TEOHNOL0b2 01' FORECASTING AND THE FORECASTING OF TECHNOLOGY. piliort 1)"'311..-000-01., SanqeMonica, Calif- ornia: , , i System Development. Corporation, AFA,06.8. ''" * Forecastidg T4thhiflues; . .., , ' , a .:. ., , .. .e.' ' o ., . 'Abt ssociates.Inc.GREAT W9RLD ISSUE 0,F 1980. :A proposal for *. a study submitted to the U. S. Air Force officeof Scientific 'Research, Cambridge, Masea6husetts:'Abt.4AssoCiates, April 1965'. (Restricted) . ,. 4 * .FOreCaSting Teelniques s 4 4 . , , Abt )sgOsiates) Inc. "Sutvey of'the:Statesok the Art: -Soci 'Political and Ecohomic.models andsimiiilqtions".in'Appendix Vol. of'TE*OLOGY,AND,THE AMEWAN ECIONOMY...Reportof the, National Commission on'Technology., Al.tto6ation'and EcontiM* `Progress; WashidgEon, D.C., 1966. * 'Forecasting Techniques, Models, &lotions Abt, Clark C. "An'Approach to ethods ofCombined-SoCiotechnological. Forecasting!'. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND-SOCIAL CHANGE, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1970, pp.,17-22: *Social FdVasting .' Abt, Clark C.,and G. Francis. SERIOUS GAMES.' Viking, 107.0. ' ,, ';acre Theory J r ' y Allen, l'..S. 1ORPHO1OGICAL CREATIVITY. Engld4wo Cliffs,, Nei Tqrsey: PxenEice Hall, 1962. * Morphological Approach t AmericanmerAcan SOcietY for Cybernetics. CYBERNETICS, SIMULATION' AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION. New York: 'partan Books 19,71. *Simulation, Modelling , b AmerIcan Society foicybernetics. PURPOSIVE SYSTEMS. New York: Spartan Books, 1%68. , .. * Systems, Purposive Systems,Man, Machines Anklelaria,..K. P, "Forecasting and'Decision.Making". IEEE TRANS- ACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT. Vol. Em-171 No2, May 1970, pp. .74 -77. * Forecast, ing-General, Limitations, Evaluation _ Ayres, Robert U. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND LONG-RANGE PLANNING. - New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. *Forecasting Techniques t' 1 Bauer, Raymond A. SOCIAL. INDICATORS. Cosibridge, MassAchusetts: M.I.T. Press, 1066: 1,* Social Conditions, Social Indicatprs 4 I 4. 3. a CPLExchange?Bibliography #2I9' k, Bayliss, D. G. A POSSIBLE USE OF THE*DELPHI MODEL IN UNDERSTANDING FUTURE ENVIRONMENT PROBLEM'. London: Centre for Environmental Studies, 1968, CES-WP'24.' 6 * Delphi .Technique, City Plattning . .. 44 Bayliss, D.' G. SOME;' RECENT TEENDS.N.,,g0RECASTINd.Iondon:- 4 Centre f Epvironmentn1 Studies; 1968, CES-WP -17. 11 1k' Techniques .,-' 6 1 Bean, Louis Iaan. TliE ART OF'FOR#AISTING. New York:03. Random House, 1 . : 0,/ 9., -, t.. i * Economic Forecasting,'PoliticalForecasting ( " Bell, Daniel. "Twelve_modes of-Prediction", in -PENGUIN SURVEYOF THESOCIAL-SCIENOES, J. Gould, ed' Balteimoy; Pengui' Books, 1965. * -Forecasting4eneral .1r . A . r Berrien, K. 'GENERAL AND .SOCIAL SYSPtIP. NTlitunswick, New Jersey: , Rutgers*University Press, 190. 4 * General,Systems Theory . ,, t 4 y---- Bertalanfq, L.GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY: FOUNDATIONS DEVELOPMENT, 4 APPLICAMNS. New York: George.Braziller, 1968: ` . * General Systems Theory . $ Bianchi, Henri. "Methodology Aor.an experimental reflectionon society", FUTURES 2.2, 170-171. (, *'''''Forecasting Techniques --- . Braithwaite, R. B. ThEORyrOZ GAMES AS A TOOL FOR THE MOLL' . .'PHILOSOPHER.Cambridge(' Uni.Orsity Press, 190 (c1955). -* Game Theory, Social Science Methodology F ..- Brech, Ronald. "BRITAIN 1184% UN/LEVER'S FORECAST- ANFEXPERIMENT IN THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE FUTURE.London: Darton, , Longman & Todd, 193. t . *Forecasting Techniques, Synoptic Nblel, Technology, Economics, Britain Brech, Ronald. .PLANNING PROSPERITY'-A SYNOPTIC MODELFOR GROWTH.' London: Darton, Longman & Todd, 1964: *Synoptic Model, Forecasting Techniques Brennan, Jas. (ed.).APPLICATIONS OFCRITICAL PATTTECHNIQUES. London: English yniversities Press, 1968. * CtitiCal Path .Mrethod. Resource Allocation, Scheduling, ManageMent 4 6 3 Oar .5. cRI, Exchange Bibliography #279 -, Bright, J. R. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING FOR INDUSTRY AND GOVERN- . MENT: NETHODSAND APPLICATIONS. Englewood Clffs'r New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1968. Especially see the following:- - R. V. Ayres.' "Envelope' Curve Forecasting;' M. J. Cetron. "An Evaluatibn and Appraisal of Various. Approaches to Technological Forecasting" J. P. Mar no. "The Use of TechnolOgical Forecasts for . .Planning Research" 4 . , R. S..Isensen., "Technological Forecasting' Lessons fvom . Project Hindsight" R. C. Leny. "Forecasts of ExplOding Technologies.by Trend Extrapolation': Buckler, I. R.GAME THEORY IN THE;BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES. Pirtt7 sburth: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1969. * Game Theory', Spcial Science Methodology Burrer; Ewald. ,INTRODUCTION-TO THE THEORY OF GANES. Englewood Iliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1963. * Game Theory ° a Burke, Eric-F. TECHNICAL AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS IN. FORECASTING, MODALS FOR LONG RANGE SCIENCE STRATEGIES. Working Paper 31, Department of Management StUdies, University of Watezloo, Waterloo, Ontario, 1970. * Forecasting Techniques,Coastraint Models Busacker, Robert G.' and Thomas-Sacty.' FINITE GRAPHS 'AND.NETWORKS: AN INTRODUCTION WITH-APPLICATIONS.. New York: Mcdraw-Hill, 1965. * Analysis Techniques, Graphs, Networks. Cetroh, Marvin J., et al. A PROPOSAL FOR A NAVY TECHNOLOGICAL FOR:MAST, PART II, BACK-UP REPORT. Headquarters Naval Material Command, Wasilington,,D.C., May 1,. 1966 UD659-200). '1;-* Forecasting Techniques 1. 4% ,Cetron, MapinJ. "QUEST Status Report",'DEEE TRANSACTIONS ON' I ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, Vol: EM-14, No. March 1967. (C6
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