More praise for Warlord Democrats “A major work. This book tells us exactly how and why wartime leaders play significant roles in post-war politics. Extremely insightful and clear, it is likely to spur a new research programme in the study of post-conflict politics and state-building. It should be widely read.” William Reno, Northwestern University “An excellent collection of essays. The political economy analysis it offers should be of particular interest to those – quite especially the UN and those charged with running its peace operations – trying to build peace and secure durable political settlements to long-running conflicts.” Mats Berdal, King’s College London A frica Now Africa Now is published by Zed Books in association with the internationally respected Nordic Africa Institute. Featuring high-quality, cutting-edge research from leading academics, the series addresses the big issues confronting Africa today. Accessible but in-depth, and wide-ranging in its scope, Africa Now engages with the critical political, economic, sociological and development debates affecting the continent, shedding new light on pressing concerns. Nordic Africa Institute The Nordic Africa Institute (Nordiska Afrikainstitutet) is a centre for research, documentation and information on modern Africa. Based in Uppsala, Sweden, the Institute is dedicated to providing timely, critical and alternative research and analysis of Africa and to co-operation with African researchers. As a hub and a meeting place for a growing field of research and analysis the Institute strives to put knowledge of African issues within reach for scholars, policy makers, politicians, media, students and the general public. www.nai.uu.se Forthcoming titles Paul Higate and Mats Utas (eds), Private Security in Africa Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs and Jesper Bjarnesen (eds), Violence in African Elections Atakilte Beyene (ed.), Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia Titles already published Fantu Cheru and Cyril Obi (eds), The Rise of China and India in Africa Ilda Lindell (ed.), Africa’s Informal Workers Iman Hashim and Dorte Thorsen, Child Migration in Africa Prosper B. Matondi, Kjell Havnevik and Atakilte Beyene (eds), Biofuels, Land Grabbing and Food Security in Africa Cyril Obi and Siri Aas Rustad (eds), Oil and Insurgency in the Niger Delta Mats Utas (ed.), African Conflicts and Informal Power Prosper B. Matondi, Zimbabwe’s Fast Track Land Reform Maria Eriksson Baaz and Maria Stern, Sexual Violence as a Weapon of War? Fantu Cheru and Renu Modi (eds), Agricultural Development and Food Security in Africa Amanda Hammar (ed.), Displacement Economies in Africa Mary Njeri Kinyanjui, Women and the Informal Economy in Urban Africa Liisa Laakso and Petri Hautaniemi (eds), Diasporas, Development and Peacemaking in the Horn of Africa Margaret Lee, Africa’s World Trade Godwin R. Murunga, Duncan Okello and Anders Sjögren (eds), Kenya: The Struggle for a New Constitutional Order Lisa Åkesson and Maria Eriksson Baaz (eds), Africa’s Return Migrants Thiven Reddy, South Africa: Settler Colonialism and the Failures of Liberal Democracy Cedric de Coning, Linnéa Gelot and John Karlsrud (eds), The Future of African Peace Operations Tobias Hagmann and Filip Reyntjens (eds), Aid and Authoritarianism in Africa Henning Melber, The Rise of Africa’s Middle Class About the editor Anders Themnér is a senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute and an assistant professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. His research focus is on post-civil war democratization; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of ex-combatants (DDR); and informal military networks in post-civil war societies. Warlord democrats in Africa Ex-military leaders and electoral politics edited by Anders Themnér Zed Books london Warlord Democrats in Africa: Ex-Military Leaders and Electoral Politics was first published in association with the Nordic Africa Institute, PO Box 1703, SE-751 47 Uppsala, Sweden in 2017 by Zed Books Ltd, The Foundry, 17 Oval Way, London SE11 5RR, UK. www.zedbooks.net www.nai.uu.se Editorial copyright © Anders Themnér 2017 Copyright in this collection © Zed Books 2017 The right of Anders Themnér to be identified as the editor of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988. Typeset in Minion Pro by seagulls.net Index by Ed Emery Cover design by Alice Marwick Cover photo © Sven Torfinn/Panos All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of Zed Books Ltd. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-78360-249-0 hb ISBN 978-1-78360-248-3 pb ISBN 978-1-78360-250-6 pdf ISBN 978-1-78360-251-3 epub ISBN 978-1-78360-252-0 mobi Contents Acknowledgements | ix Introduction: Warlord democrats: wartime investments, democratic returns? anders themnér . 1 1 Pompier-pyromanocracy: Mbusa Nyamwisi and the DR Congo’s inflammable post-settlement political order judith verweijen . 41 2 Apotheosis of a warlord: Paul Kagame lars waldorf . .68 3 Discourses of peace and fear: the electoral navigations of Sekou Conneh and Prince Johnson in post-war Liberia carrie manning and anders themnér . .95 4 Afonso Dhlakama and RENAMO’s return to armed conflict since 2013: the politics of reintegration in Mozambique alex vines . 121 5 From warlord to drug lord: the life of João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira henrik vigh . 156 6 Shape-shifters in the struggle for survival: post-war politics in Sierra Leone mimmi söderberg kovacs and ibrahim bangura . 177 7 Riek Machar: warlord-doctor in South Sudan johan brosché and kristine höglund . 199 Conclusion: Ambiguous peacelords: the diminishing returns of post-war democracy anders themnér . 222 About the contributors | 246 Index | 247 Acknowledgements This volume grew out of a rich and stimulating research environment at the Nordic Africa Institute (NAI), and particularly its “Conflict Cluster”. It was through constant discussions about Big Men, informalities, post-civil war dynamics and processes of democratization that the idea for analyzing warlord democrats as electoral navigators developed. For this reason, I am eternally grateful to colleagues such as Maria Eriksson Baaz, Linnéa Gelot, Ilmari Käihkö, Maria Malmström, Anders Sjögren and Mimmi Söderberg Kovacs. I am particularly indebted to Mats Utas for introducing the Big Man framework to me and for constantly pushing me to look beyond my positivist inclinations. In a similar vein, I also want extend my appreciation to the current and former directors of NAI, Iina Soiri and Carin Norberg, as well as NAI’s head of research, Victor Adetula, who have supported the process throughout. I would also like to express my gratitude to my “other” workplace – the Department of Peace and Conflict Research (DPCR) at Uppsala University. It has been a luxury to have DPCR as an alternative source of inspiration. From some of the brightest scholars on the dynamics of war and peace I have received insights about how, in a systematic manner, to try to capture, compare and analyze something as fluid and ambiguous as individual agency in a largely informal setting. The book began to take shape in September 2012, with the organization of a two-day workshop entitled Warlord Democrats: Agents of Change or Instigators of Insecurity? During the workshop, a number of scholars and practitioners were present who are not part of this book. These individuals did, however, undoubtedly infuse valuable ideas and perspectives into the project. I therefore owe thanks to Bola Amoke Awotide, Maria Eriksson Baaz, Tumba Tuseku Diuedonné, Nura Jibo, Trice Kabundi, Maria Malmström, Carin Norberg, Daniel Poon, Koko Sadiki, Pierre Schori, Anders Sjögren, Roxanna Sjöstedt, Ari Baghdassar Tatian, James Tar Tsaaior and Mats Utas. This workshop could not have been organized without the generous economic support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the organizational assistance of NAI. We are truly indebted to both organizations. From the latter, I particularly want to mention Ingrid Andersson, whose administrative expertise made all the difference. During the writing of this volume, we have received invaluable comments, reflections and assistance from a number of people. Three research assistants ix have on several occasions literally pushed the project forward with their enthu- siasm, input and administrative help. Without the work done by Alexandra Brandner, Claudia Forster-Towne and Sayra van den Berg it would have taken twice as long to finalize this book. I am also extremely grateful to Hanne Fjelde, Roxanna Sjöstedt, Lotta Themnér and three anonymous reviewers who through their insightful suggestions and reflections have undoubtedly increased the quality of the book. I would furthermore like to extend my warm appreciation to Zed Books for having made this project possible. Throughout the process, I have benefited from the wisdom and guidance of the editor of Zed’s Africa Now series, Ken Barlow, as well as NAI’s head of communications, Elnaz Alizadeh. The writing of the book would, furthermore, not have been possible without the generous economic support provided by Stiftelsen Marcus och Amalia Wallenbergs Minnesfond and the Swedish Research Council. In the end, this has been a collaborative effort involving ten researchers, coming from various scholarly traditions.