Global Challenges Foundation
Remodelling global cooperation Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report GLOBAL CHALLENGES QUARTERLY RISK REPORT – REMODELLING GLOBAL COOPERATION The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation.
Team Project leader: Carin Ism Editor-in-chief: Julien Leyre Art director: Elinor Hägg Project assistant: Elizabeth Ng
Contributors Anne Marie Goetz Malini Mehra Professor, Center for Global Affairs, School Chief Executive, GLOBE International, UK of Professional Studies, New York University, USA Maria Ivanova Associate Professor of Global Governance Atangcho Nji Akonumbo and Director, Center for Governance and Associate Professor of Law, University of Sustainability, University of Massachusetts Yaoundé II/University of Bamenda, Cameroon Boston, USA
Benjamin Barber Nader Khateeb Distinguished senior fellow, Fordham School Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Palestine of Law Urban Consortium, USA Sir Martin Rees David Held Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astro- Professor of Politics and International Rela- physics, Cambridge University, UK tions, Durham University, UK Munqeth Mehyar Folke Tersman Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Jordan Chair Professor of Practical Philosophy, Up- psala University, Sweden Pang Zhongying Professor, Centre for the Study of Global Gov- Gidon Bromberg ernance, School of International Studies, Ren- Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Israel min University, China
Ian Manners Robert Muggah Professor, Department of Political Science, Research director, Igarapé Institute, Brazil University of Copenhagen, Denmark Sachin Joshi James Fennell Tempelhof Director, Confederation of Indian Industry Operations Manager, BITNATION (CII-ITC) Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development, India Johan Rockström Executive director, Stockholm Resilience Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof Centre, Sweden Founder/CEO, BITNATION
Magnus Jiborn Researcher, Lund School of Economics, Sweden
2 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to incite deeper under- standing of the global risks that threaten humanity and catalyse ideas to tackle them. Rooted in a scientific analysis of risk, the Foundation brings together the brightest minds from academia, politics, business and civil society to forge transformative approaches to secure a better future for all.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 3 4 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 Contents
Foreword 6 Preface 8 Executive Summary 10 Part 1. Making sense of the present 16 1.1 A long-term perspective on global catastrophic risk – Sir Martin Rees 18 1.2 From multilateralism to gridlock and beyond – David Held 24 1.3 The current shape of global governance – a look inside the UN structure – Magnus Jiborn/Folke Tersman 34 1.4 Global environmental goals: What works, what doesn’t and why? – Maria Ivanova 44 Part 2. Emerging Trends 52 2.1 Governance for sustainable development – courts as the new game-changers – Malini Mehra 54 2.2 Privatization of global governance – Sachin Joshi 60 2.3 Gender equality in global governance: not an optional extra – Anne Marie Goetz 68 2.4 China’s role in global governance – Pang Zhongying 76 2.5 Perspectives on the African single passport – Atangcho Nji Akonumbo 82 2.6 From the regional to the global: better achieve together what cannot be achieved apart – Ian Manners 92 2.7 The ‘Big Jump into the Jordan’ – putting water before conflict – Gidon Bromberg/Nader Khateeb/Munqeth Mehyar 98 2.8 Cities are key to our survival in the twenty first century – Robert Muggah/Benjamin Barber 104 2.9 BITNATION Pangea: the world’s first virtual nation – a blockchain jurisdiction – Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof/ James Fennell Tempelhof 110 Part 3. Looking to the future 116 3.1 Planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene – Johan Rockström 118 Continuing the conversation 124 Endnotes 126
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 5 6 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 FOREWORD
Foreword
n the after- When I founded math of the US the Global Challenges elections, there Foundation in 2012, I can be no more did so because I wanted relevant time to deepen insights into Ito examine whether the urgent global risks our current systems of we face. I also wanted global cooperation are to help to spark a con- fit for purpose. That is, versation about how are they designed to these threats could be effectively tackle the better handled. That is most pressing threats to the intention of this re- humanity: catastrophic port. We have gathered climate change, other environmental perspectives from around the world ruin, various weapons of mass de- and across disciplines in an attempt struction and global pandemics? to catalyse discussion around poten- The current political drumbeat tial new pathways. against globalization and in favour of nationalism is deeply dangerous at a Of this I am certain: bold thinking time when we face global risks that and urgent action are needed in are unprecedented in their scale and order to address the interlinked and complexity. These threats transcend mutually reinforcing mega risks we national borders and can affect face. These risks cannot be solved at anyone anywhere on the planet. In an the national level: the time has come interconnected and interdependent to re-envision, to re-model our sys- world the international community tem of global governance. Our planet has outrun its ability to deal with – and the very future of human life them. on it – depends upon it. Einstein pointed out, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” It follows there is no logical reason why a system of international bodies and agreements that has evolved over the 70 years since the Second World War should be suitable Laszlo Szombatfalvy for governing the crises we face today. Founder of Global Challenges Foundation
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 7 8 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 PREFACE
Preface
n the 20th Cen- divisions to present a tury, human be- range of viewpoints, ings solved some from men and women of the toughest spanning the fields of challenges of political thought, as- Iour history. We erad- tronomy, international icated smallpox. We law, technology and dramatically decreased environmentalism. It the numbers of chil- includes perspectives dren dying before their from Africa, China fifth birthdays. We and South America as stabilized the hole in well as Europe and the the ozone layer. United States. Human inventiveness has trig- gered an explosion of technological This report is not a blueprint for and scientific advances that have how to organize the world; rather improved living standards for bil- it is a thought prompt, a set of key lions. But these advances have also questions with some ideas advanced created the greatest risks we face for how they might be approached. It today including climate change and is presented with the hope of stim- weapons of mass destruction. ulating conversation on this most At the Global Challenges Founda- urgent topic. For it is only by hold- tion, we believe that human inge- ing truly global conversations that nuity can, if properly channelled, we can shape the global solutions play a role in averting humanity’s needed. greatest challenges. If we can tap this creativity and apply it to the task of re-designing how the world commu- nity organizes and takes decisions, then we will have a greater chance of avoiding the worst risks we face. That is why we need an intensive Mats Andersson global conversation about global Vice-chairman, governance that straddles disci- Global Challenges Foundation plines, sectors and regions. Too Former CEO, Fourth Swedish often, experts work in their silos. This National Pension Fund, co-founder report attempts to break down these Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 9 10 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive summary Julien Leyre, Global Challenges Foundation, Melbourne, Australia.
his report brings to- The second contributor, David Held gether a set of diverse from Durham University, examines perspectives on global the state of gridlock into which our governance from inde- international institutions have fallen pendent thinkers. It does in ‘From multilateralism to gridlock Tnot attempt to lay out a prescriptive and beyond’. Developed after the path as to how global decision-mak- traumas of the Second World War, ing should be organised, but rather, it current institutions have enabled the aims to stimulate reflection and invite globalised world that we know today, the reader to explore new directions. but they are increasingly unable to tackle the greatest problems of our Four initial pieces set the scene, time. David Held attributes this to situating the main challenges that rising multi-polarity, institutional the world now faces in a broader inertia, tougher problems and institu- historical perspective. We open with a tional fragmentation. Humanity now contribution from Cambridge astro- faces a crossroads, and could head physicist Sir Martin Rees who takes either towards authoritarianism, or what might be called ‘the long view’. a ‘brighter cosmopolitanism’. This In ‘A long-term perspective on global second and more hopeful perspec- catastrophic risk’, he considers the 45 tive would entail embracing a new million century life span of the Earth, form of citizenship that goes beyond identifying our present century as national allegiances to more flexible unique. It is the first era when our and interconnected kinds of political species is in a position to determine belonging, anchored in the principle the planet’s future, choosing between that all human beings are of equal ‘ever more wonderful complexity’ moral worth. and higher forms of intelligence, or a darker view where human folly In the next piece, ‘The current shape could foreclose this immense future of global governance – a look inside potential. The biggest challenge, he the UN structure’, philosophers Mag- concludes, is not scientific or tech- nus Jiborg from Lund University and nological, it is political: persuading Folke Tersman from Uppsala Univer- decision-makers to carefully consider sity provide a general overview of the the long-term consequences of their United Nations – the current focal actions. point of global governance, designed
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
for the voluntary coordination of The second part of the report offers a sovereign nations. The piece offers an selection of nine pieces from inde- optimistic perspective on our existing pendent thinkers that each consider systems by considering the various the question of global governance areas where the UN has had at least from a particular perspective, en- partial success in coordinating action couraging reflection on the multiple towards environmental protection, dimensions of this complex issue. poverty reduction or conflict preven- The changing role of the courts tion. Perhaps, the authors suggest, an in protecting global public goods is institution designed to address one a theme that has been highlighted set of problems might evolve, and by recent legal cases, firstly against prove capable of tackling others. ExxonMobil’s failure to disclose envi- ronmental risks to their shareholders, The last piece in this first section and secondly against the Islamic takes a different angle and considers terrorist Ahmad al-Faqi al-Mahdi for how little we know about the actual destroying UNESCO World Heritage effect of our global collaboration Monuments in Timbuktu, Mali. In efforts. A number of international ‘Governance for sustainable devel- treaties exist to support environmen- opment – courts as the new game tal protection, but until recently, no changers,’ Malini Mehra from Globe system was in place to systematically International argues that when monitor their impact, or even wheth- companies and governments are er commitments are fully implement- becoming less trusted with ensuring ed. In ‘Global Environmental Goals: the preservation of our environment, What works, what doesn’t and why?’ the judiciary may offer a solution and Maria Ivanova from the University of a source of hope. Massachusetts Boston introduces a Recent years have seen a marked new research project that monitors shift in the role played by the private the implementation of treaties on en- sector in global governance. Sachin vironmental issues. The ultimate goal Joshi from the Confederation of In- of the project is to increase account- dian Industry explores these changes ability and to support better institu- in ‘The privatisation of global gov- tional design. Early results encourage ernance’. Increasingly perceived as optimism: developing countries show a potential source of solutions for better performance than expected global challenges, the private sector and data reporting is consistent. An now has a seat at the negotiating table environmental conventions imple- along governments and civil society. mentation index, which is developed In a world where new technologies as part of this project, will provide a crucial to the future of humanity – valuable accountability tool for future such as human genome mapping or treaties and agreements. artificial intelligence – are largely
12 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 controlled by private sector entities, China continues to deepen its rela- there is a strong case for their involve- tions with existing global governance ment in global decision-making. This institutions, while using different may signal the beginning of a new era strategies to push a reformist agen- where global governance is increas- da, and aspiring to a central position ingly privatised. in global forums, a bridge between ‘Women’s leadership in global East and West, between developed governance’ – or the lack of it – is a and developing countries. In a time subject tackled by New York Univer- of ‘global governance deficit,’ the sity’s Anne Marie Goetz in a passion- author argues, China may act as a ate indictment of the lack of women factor of stability – but China’s long in our current global governance march towards an established role in structures. Gender parity within global governance has not yet come institutions is just one aspect of the to an end. problem however, argues the author: Against the background of nation- institutions must actively embrace alist agendas challenging regional a feminist agenda. Improvements integration, the recent adoption of to the condition of women must be a single African passport could offer listed as a global priority, and ac- grounds for optimism. In ‘Perspec- countability systems must be put in tives on the African single passport,’ place to ensure that the fight against Cameroonian legal expert Atangcho misogyny progresses everywhere in Nji Akonumbo explores the impact the world if multilateral solutions are this initiative could have for to be found. Africa. A continent-wide market could stimulate intra-African trade China’s rise in the late 20th and and investment, encourage entrepre- early 21st centuries resulted in a neurship and business diversifica- massive shift in geopolitical balance. tion, he argues. However, the insti- In ‘China’s role in global governance,’ tution of a single passport alone will Professor Pang Zhongying from not be sufficient: development efforts Renmin University examines how – from education to infrastructure,
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
peace and stability – are all crucial to raising campaign and engaged local unity and long term prosperity on the leaders in symbolic acts – inviting continent. Mayors to jump into the Jordan to- In ‘From the regional to the global: gether. These initiatives are building better achieve together what can- ground for collaboration, and slowly, not be achieved apart’, professor the river is showing signs of a rebirth. Ian Manners from the University of Copenhagen interrogates the Euro- Cities offer vibrant alternative pean experience, and what might approaches to cooperation when be learned from its successes. Over it comes to addressing global chal- its seventy years of existence, the lenges, particularly environmental European Union has achieved peace, issues and climate change. In ‘Cities prosperity and social progress in a are key to our survival in the twen- continent that, for centuries, had ty first century,’ Robert Muggah of hardly experienced ten years without Brazil’s Igarapé Institute and Benja- a war. These achievements, argues min Barber of New York’s Fordham Ian Manners, are deeply connected School of Law show how the city may to the core principle of the European be one of the most crucial form of Union Treaty – subsidiarity or ‘to political organisations in the com- better achieve together what cannot ing century. While nation states are be achieved apart’. building walls around themselves, cities are building bridges between In the Middle East, unusual forms of each other. Further progress will re- cooperation hold valuable lessons for quire structures that allow for deeper collaboration at the global level. ‘The engagement, particularly between big jump into the Jordan – putting cities in wealthier nations and the water before conflict’ by the three fast-growing metropolises of the co-directors of EcoPeace Middle East, Global South – and some of these are in Jordan, Israel and Palestine, tells already taking shape. of one such initiative. EcoPeace is a The final piece in this section offers recent initiative that brings together an original perspective on the poten- municipalities bordering the Jordan tial impact new technologies might River. Over the years, the Jordan have on global governance, and how River, which serves as a border radical alternatives to current models between regions in conflict, has might emerge. In ‘BITNATION Pan- become little more than a sewer, with gea: the world’s first virtual nation severe environmental consequenc- – a blockchain jurisdiction,’ Susanne es. How could a river holy to half of Tarkowski Tempelhof paints a picture humanity suffer such a demise? To of how blockchain technology could address this issue, EcoPeace has de- herald a new form of governance. veloped a systematic local awareness Through secure technological systems,
14 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 individuals could join an alternative these four in particular deserve our polity based on electronically nego- attention: new legal norms that con- tiated contracts, thus bypassing the sider the notion of planetary bound- traditional nation state model. aries; changes to the mandate of the United Nations Environment Pro- We live in exceptional times: our gramme (UNEP) that would upgrade present period, that of the Anthro- the organisation to coordinate inter- pocene, or era of human impact national rules in ways that support on the biosphere, presents unique a transition to global sustainability; challenges and the real possibility of a strong commitment to develop catastrophic destruction. Yet, argues and support innovations that have a Johan Rockström from the Stock- positive impact on the biosphere; and holm Resilience Centre in ‘Planetary consistent efforts to secure popu- stewardship in the Anthropocene’, lar endorsement, so that proposed leverage points for transformative changes are not only effective but also change exist. Looking to the future, perceived as legitimate.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 15 PART 1 – MAKING SENSE OF THE PRESENT
Part 1 Making sense of the present
16 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 17 18 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.1. A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK
1.1. A long-term perspective on global catastrophic risk
Sir Martin Rees, Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics, Cambridge University, UK
Are we wise enough to make decisions that will avoid the pitfall of short-termism? Even from a very long perspective, this century is special: for the first time, one species – ours – is in a position to determine the future of our entire planet. If humanity is to reach yet higher levels of development and complexity, the biggest challenges that we face are not scientific or technological, but political.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 19 Even on a compressed time chart stretching billions of years into the future as well as into the past, this century is special.
20 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.1. A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK
stronomers like myself have Our world increasingly depends on a long perspective. We know elaborate networks: electric-power A that our Earth is 45 million grids, GPS, international finance, centuries old, and it’s got 60 million globally-dispersed manufacturing, more before the Sun dies. We hu- and so forth. Unless these networks mans surely aren’t the culmination of are highly resilient, their benefits evolution – we may not even be the could be outweighed by catastrophic halfway stage in the emergence of (albeit rare) breakdowns that cascade ever more wonderful complexity. But globally – real-world analogues of the even on this compressed time chart, 2008 financial crash. Cities would be stretching billions of years into the paralyzed without electricity, and su- future as well as into the past, this permarket shelves empty within days century is special. It’s the first when if supply chains were disrupted. one species, ours, is so empowered Air travel can spread a pandemic and dominant that it can determine worldwide within days. And social the planet’s future. It’s the century media can spread panic, rumour and when we could jump-start the tran- economic contagion, literally at the sition to post-human and electronic speed of light. intelligence, and spread beyond the Earth. Or – to take a darker view – the Advances in microbiology – di- century where our follies could fore- agnostics, vaccines and antibiotics close this immense future potential. – offer huge potential. But the same research has controversial aspects. The stakes are high. And the threats ‘Gain of function’ experiments can are real. It’s a wise maxim that ‘the make viruses both more virulent unfamiliar isn’t the same as the im- and transmissible. The new CRISPR probable’ There are concerns that we gene-editing technique is hugely may not properly cope with the run- promising, but concerns are raised away advance in novel technologies – about unintended consequences of biotechnology, cybertechnology and ‘gene drive’ programs to wipe out Artifical Intelligence. parasitic species. In addition, biotech- These technologies should be our nology now involves small-scale, dual friends. Without applying new science, use equipment. Indeed, biohacking is the world can’t provide food and sus- even burgeoning as a hobby and com- tainable clean energy for an expanding petitive game. It is very possible that and more demanding population. whatever regulations are imposed on They offer inspirational challenges for prudential or ethical grounds can’t be young scientists and engineers. enforced worldwide any more than the But these same technologies have drug laws or the tax laws can. downsides – they lead to new vulner- And there’s another set of global abilities. threats that stem from humanity’s
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 21 ever-heavier collective ‘footprint’ Those who built Europe’s great on the planet – depleted resources, cathedrals thought the world might impoverished ecologies and changed only last another thousand years – climate. How much should we care they knew of nothing beyond Europe. about these trends? We’re clearly But despite these constricted hori- harmed if fish stocks dwindle to ex- zons in both space and time, they tinction. There are plants in the rain devoted their energy to works that forest whose genes may be useful to would not be completed in their life- us. But this is too anthropocentric a time – and that still uplift our spirits focus – biodiversity surely has intrin- centuries later. sic value over and above its benefit to Unlike our forebears we know us humans. To quote the great eco- we’re stewards of a ‘pale blue dot’ in logist E O Wilson, if our despoliation a vast cosmos whose fate depends of nature causes mass extinctions “it’s on humanity’s collective actions this the action that future generations will century. So it’s shameful that our least forgive us for”. horizon is shorter than theirs. Space- ship Earth is hurtling through the There seems to be no scientific void. Its passengers are anxious and impediment to achieving a sustain- fractious. Their life-support sys- able and secure world, where all enjoy tem is vulnerable to disruption and a lifestyle better than those in the breakdowns. There’s too little hori- ‘West’ do today. We can be techno- zon-scanning to minimize long-term logical optimists. But the intractable risks. politics and sociology – the gap Activists and experts by themselves between potentialities and what actu- can’t generate or sustain political will. ally happens – engenders pessimism. Their voice must be amplified by a Politicians look to their own voters wide public and by the media – other- and the next election. We downplay wise long-term global causes can’t what’s happening even now in far- compete on the political agenda with away countries. And we discount too the immediate and the local. heavily the problems we’ll leave for Without a broader perspective – new generations. without realizing that we’re all on This short-termism is saddening this crowded world together – gov- – and immoral, when we ourselves ernments won’t properly prioritize cherish and depend on the heritage projects that political perspectives left by past generations. consider long-term.
22 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 SIR MARTIN REES Sir Martin Rees is a Fellow of Trinity College and Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics at the University of Cambridge. In 2005 he was appointed to the House of Lords, and was formerly President of the Royal Society. While in these roles, he engaged with both policy- makers and the public to better prepare for our long term challenges. He is the author of a number of popular books, including Just Six Num- bers and the existential risk-focused Our Final Century? He has written over 500 peer reviewed papers and eight books in total.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 23 24 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.2. FROM MULTILATERALISM TO GRIDLOCK AND BEYOND
1.2. From multilateralism to gridlock and beyond
David Held, Professor of Politics and International Relations, Durham University, UK
How might we go beyond the gridlock of today’s international governance systems? Institutions developed after the Second World War have become the victims of their own success, and are no longer able to face the systemic challenges of our globalised environment. We are at a crossroads: one path leads towards authoritarianism, but another opens up a more hopeful cosmopolitan future, where citizenship is a non-exclusive form of belonging, and each human being is considered of equal moral worth.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 25 26 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.2. FROM MULTILATERALISM TO GRIDLOCK AND BEYOND
orld War II, the Holocaust, However, economic and political and the rise of Nazism and shifts in large part attributable to the W fascism brought humanity successes of the post-war rule-based to the brink. As the violence subsided, order are now amongst the factors the toll of this human drama weighed grinding the global system into heavily on world leaders, and recom- gridlock, and affecting our ability mitted leading powers to set down a to engage in further global cooper- structure of global order capable of ation. As a result of the remarkable preventing a war of this magnitude success of global cooperation in the from ever occurring again. post-war order, human interconnect- The post-war multilateral organi- edness weighs much more heavily on zations created in the wake of this politics than it did in 1945, and the destruction – the UN and the Bretton need for international cooperation is Woods institutions – established marked. Yet the “supply” side of the conditions under which, in prin- equation, institutionalized multi- ciple, a multitude of actors could lateral cooperation, is stalling. In benefit from forming corporations, areas such as nuclear proliferation, investing abroad, developing global the explosion of small arms sales, production chains, and engaging terrorism, failed states, global eco- with a plethora of other social and nomic imbalances, financial mar- economic processes that ushered ket instability, global poverty and in a new era of globalization. This inequality, biodiversity losses, water is not to say that these institutions deficits and climate change, multi- were the only cause of the dynamic lateral and transnational cooperation form of globalization experienced is now increasingly ineffective or over the last few decades. Changes threadbare. Gridlock is not unique in the nature of global capitalism, to one issue domain, but appears including breakthroughs in trans- to be becoming a general feature portation and information techno- of global governance: cooperation logy, are obviously critical drivers seems to be increasingly difficult and of interdependence. Nonetheless, deficient at precisely the time when all of these changes were allowed to it is extremely urgent. Why? thrive and develop because they took place in a relatively open, peaceful, There are four reasons for this liberal, institutionalized world order. blockage, or four pathways to grid- By preventing World War Three and lock: rising multi-polarity, institu- another Great Depression, the multi- tional inertia, harder problems, and lateral order arguably did just as institutional fragmentation. As I much for interdependence as digital argue with my colleagues Thomas communication, satellite technology, Hale and Kevin Young in our book and email. Gridlock (2013), each pathway can
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 27 be thought of as a growing trend we must cooperate. But many of that embodies a specific mix of our tools for global policy-making causal mechanisms. First, reaching – chiefly, state-to-state negotia- agreement in complex international tions over treaties and international negotiations is hampered by the institutions – are breaking down or rise of new powers like India, China inadequate, at a time when our fate and Brazil: a more diverse array of and fortunes are acutely interwoven. interests have to be hammered into Signs of this today are everywhere: agreement for any global deal to be climate change is still threatening all made. On the one hand, multi-polar- life as we know it, conflicts such as ity is a positive sign of development; Syria continue to run out of control, on the other hand, it can easily bring small arms sales proliferate despite both more voices and interests to the all efforts to contain them, migration table, so that it becomes harder to has increased rapidly and is destabi- weave them into coherent outcomes. lising many societies, and inequality Second, the institutions created sev- threatens the fabric of social life enty years ago have proven difficult across the world. While it is far from to change, as established interests gloom and doom in all respects, cling to outmoded decision-making these are dangerous trends stem- rules that fail to reflect current con- ming from governance structures ditions. Third, the problems we are that are no longer fit for purpose. facing on a global scale have grown more complex, penetrating deep We are at a crossroads. One road into domestic policies, and are often points to authoritarianism, while extremely difficult to resolve. Fourth, another opens up a more hopeful in many areas, international institu- cosmopolitan future. The path to tions have proliferated with overlap- authoritarianism could be created ping and contradictory mandates, by the search for decisive solutions creating a confusing fragmentation and ‘strong man’ leaders from people of authority. faced with a world that is seemingly out of control and where a retreat These trends combine in many to the familiar (and away from the sectors to make successful cooper- Other) offers a tempting way for- ation at the global level extremely ward. Of course, we have been here difficult to achieve. The risks that fol- before. The 1930s saw the rise of low from this are all too obvious. To xenophobia and nationalism in the manage the global economy, prevent context of prolonged and protracted runaway environmental destruc- economic strife, the lingering impact tion, rein in nuclear proliferation, of World War I, weak international or confront other global challenges, institutions and a desperate search
28 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 for scapegoats. The 2010s has not- to the process of national accom- able parallels: the protracted fallout modation that has underpinned of the global financial crisis, inef- European peace since the end of the fective regional and international Second World War. It is as if all that institutions, and a growing xenopho- was learnt in the wake of the Second bic discourse that places virtually World War risks being undone. And all blame for every problem on some yet, it would be false to assign all form of Other. responsibility for the erosion of ac- Under these circumstances, commodation to right wing politics. identity and distributional struggles Exclusionary politics can, and does, typically intensify; mutual gain gives come from all sides of the political way to zero-sum equations, and the spectrum and has clear manifesta- social order risks fragmentation tions on the far-left in Britain, France and sectional struggle. It is not a and Germany to name a few. surprise, accordingly, that the rise of the far right is a sustained and But there are alternative routes. troubling trend. From Nigel Farage To begin with, we have the option and UKIP in the United Kingdom, of recalling where the pursuit of to Le Pen and the National Front in authoritarianism leads. The routes France, to Golden Dawn in Greece, to chosen in the 1930s all led to ca- Norbert Hofer in Austria, and to the lamity and destruction, while the Danish People’s Party in Denmark, 1940s rediscovered the dangers this trend is manifest across Eu- of simply putting up the shutters, rope. The retreat to nationalism and pursuing protectionism and denying militant identity politics is counter the equal dignity of each and all.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 29 30 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.2. FROM MULTILATERALISM TO GRIDLOCK AND BEYOND
The architects of the post-war era, people together in the diverse com- who put in place the human rights munities which significantly affect regime and a re-invigorated law of them. Accordingly, patriotism would war, set down elements of a universal be misunderstood if it meant, as it all constitutional order in which two too often has done, ‘my country right principles became the bedrock of or wrong’. Rather, it comes to mean peace and stability: the equal moral loyalty to the standards and values standing of each and every person, of rightful authority – to common and the equal rights and duties of civic and political principles, appro- each and all. priately embedded. Moreover, a cosmopolitan model Suitably developed, this concep- of politics and regulation can be tion of global politics envisages a found in some of the most important multilayered and multilevel polity, achievements of law and institution from cities to global associations, building in the twentieth century. bound by a common framework of These developments set down a law, a framework of law anchored in conception of rightful authority tied democratic principles and human to human rights and democratic rights. The state does not wither values which can be entrenched in away in this conception; rather, it wide-ranging settings. In this per- becomes one element in the protec- spective, political power is legitimate tion and maintenance of political if and only if it is democratic and authority, democracy and human upholds human rights. rights in the dense web of global Interestingly, within this new forces and processes that already framework, the link between territ- shape our lives. Perhaps more im- ory, sovereignty and rightful au- portantly still, it points to a political thority is, in principle, broken, since order no longer exclusively anchored rightful authority can be exercised in raison d’état and hegemonic state in many spheres and at many levels, projects but in principles of global local, subnational, national and cooperation and cosmopolitan asso- supranational. Accordingly, citizen- ciation. ship can be envisaged, as it is already in the European Union, as equal The years since 9/11 have cast a membership in the diverse, overlap- dark shadow over global politics in ping political communities which many respects. The wars and crises uphold common civic and political of this period have put at risk the values and standards. Citizenship, wisdom and achievements of the thus conceived, is built not on an architects of the post Second World exclusive membership of a single War era: of the founders of the UN community, but on a set of principles and EU, of those who established and and legal arrangements which link advanced the human rights regime,
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 31 We are at a crossroads. One road points to authoritarianism, while another opens up a more hopeful cosmopolitan future.
32 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.2. FROM MULTILATERALISM TO GRIDLOCK AND BEYOND
of the many actors and agencies that build on them further. This remains have tried to mitigate climate change a future worth struggling for. and other environmental threats, The other side of the cosmopoli- and of those who have struggled tan commitment to the equal moral to address poverty and inequality worth of every human being, and to across the world, among many other the equal freedom of each and all, pressing issues. But while these wars is an acceptance of the plurality of and crises have put this all at risk, ways of living and a tolerance of this the achievements of the post-1945 diversity in all its richness, with one era have not yet been undermined or qualification – that pluralism does damaged to the point of no return. not undermine the boundaries of The future is still in our hands. Our moral and political equality. With forebears created stepping stones to this understanding, we can consol- a universal constitutional order, and idate a global order that serves the we can still walk across them and many, and not the few.
DAVID HELD David Held is Master of University College, Durham and Professor of Politics and International Relations at Durham University. He is Director of the Institute of Global Policy, Durham University and Visiting Professor at LUISS University in Rome. He is the founder and Director of Polity Press, the Durham Global Policy Institute and the Wiley-Blackwell flagship journal, Global Policy. He is author of more than 60 written or edited books and of an extensive number of academic articles on democracy, democratization, globalization, global governance and global policy. Among his most recent publica- tions are Gridlock: Why Global Cooperation is Failing When We Need it Most (2013),co-authored with Thomas Hale and Kevin Young, and Cos- mopolitanism: Ideals and Realities (2010). His main research interests include the study of globalization, changing forms of democracy and the prospects of regional and global governance.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 33 34 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.3. THE CURRENT SHAPE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – A LOOK INSIDE THE UN STRUCTURE
1.3. The current shape of global governance – a look inside the UN structure
Magnus Jiborn, Researcher, Lund School of Economics, Sweden Folke Tersman, Chair Professor of Practical Philosophy, Uppsala University, Sweden
If our goal is to develop new models that will support better global coordination, what existing structures can we build on? The United Nations – the current hub of global governance – has had a number of at least partial successes over its seventy years of existence that we can learn from and improve upon.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 35 he United Nations is the cen- and procedural rules defined in the tral hub of the existing system Charter: T of global governance. It was • The General Assembly, which is established in 1945, in the aftermath the main decison making body of World War II, and currently has 193 with equal representation and vot- member states. ing powers for each member state. The basic document defining the • The Security Council, with five per- purpose and regulating membership, manent members – China, France, responsibilities, organizational struc- Russia, the UK and the US – and ture and operations of the UN is the ten non-permanent members that UN Charter. Echoing the famous first are elected for two year terms by paragraph of the US Constitution, the the General Assembly. Charter begins “We the peoples of the • The Secretariat, led by a Secretary United Nations …”. General that is appointed by the However, this formulation also General Assembly on recommen- reveals a very important difference dation of the Security Council. between the two documents: The • The Economic and Social Council, UN is a union of “peoples”, not of ECOSOC, which is responsible for “people”, and the UN Charter is a issues related to economic and set of rules for voluntary coopera- social development as well as envi- tion between sovereign states, not a ronmental issues. constitution. In line with this, Article • The International Court of Justice 2 of the Charter stresses the principle which is the main judicial organ of “sovereign equality” of all member of the UN, with the task of settling states, and the principle of non-inter- legal disputes among member vention in internal affairs of member states and providing the General states. Assembly and the Security Council The purpose of the organization is advisory opinions on legal ques- stated in the first article of the Charter: tions. to “maintain international peace and • The Trusteeship Council. This or- security”, ”develop friendly relations gan was established in the original among nations”, ”achieve inter- Charter, signed in June 1945, with national co-operation in solving inter- the task of administrating trust national problems” and to promote territories that lacked a sovereign “respect for human rights”. Other government of their own, either central goals for the orgaization today by being placed under League of are sustainable development, inter- Nations mandate after World War I national law and humanitarian aid. or as a result of World War II. The Trusteeship Council still formally The UN consists of six principal exists, but has suspended all opera- organs, with responsibilities, powers tions since 1994.
36 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.3. THE CURRENT SHAPE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – A LOOK INSIDE THE UN STRUCTURE
The UN is a union of ‘peoples’, not of ‘people’, and the UN charter is a set of rules for voluntary cooperation between sovereign states, not a constitution.
Apart from these principal organs, Conventions have their own separate there is also a large number of sub- secretariats, such as the secretariat sidiary organs, programmes, commit- of the UN Framework Convention on tees, working groups and specialized Climate Change, UNFCCC, which has agencies. Some of these also have a staff of 500 people. their own subsidiary organs. Thus the The UN system is thus a large and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate complex network of interconnected Change, IPCC, was established jointly organs and agencies with different by the UN Environmental Programme mandates, memberships and prin- and the World Meteorological Or- ciples of governance. The organiza- ganization, which is a specialized tional map below only gives a rough UN agency. In addition, some UN overview.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 37 FIGURE 1.1. THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM – ORGANIZATIONAL MAP
193 MEMBER STATES
THE CHARTER: “WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS …” Signed in June 1945 by 50 states. Defines the purpose, mandate and terms of operation of the principal UN organs.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARIAT Members: all 193 UN member Members: Five permanent mem- Led by the Secretary General, states. ber states and ten elected by the elected by the General Assembly General Assembly for two year Mandate: to discuss, initiate after recommendation from the terms. studies and issue non-binding Security Council. Responsible for recommendations regarding any Mandate: Responsible for main- the daily operations of the UN. matter within the scope of the UN taining international peace and Charter. Decisions are not binding security. Resolutions are binding on member states. on all UN member states. Decision making: equal repre- Decision making: nine votes, sentation and voting power for all including each of the five perma- PRINCIPAL ORGANS member states. Majority deci- nent members, required for a sions, except certain important resolution to pass. decisions that require two-thirds majority.
SUBSIDIARY ORGANS UNDER SUBSIDIARY ORGANS UNDER DEPARTMENTS OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY: THE SECURITY COUNCIL: THE SECRETARIAT: Membership: varying Members: all fifteen member of Examples: Examples: Security Council • Department of Peace Keeping • The Human Rights Council Examples: Missions • The Disarmament Commission • The Non-Proliferation Commis- • Department of Political Affairs sion • The Counter-Terrorism Com- mitte • The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda SUBSIDIARY ORGANS
38 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTERNATIONAL COURT TRUSTEESHIP COUNCIL, ECOSOC OF JUSTICE, ICJ COUNCIL Members: 54 member states Members: All member states of the UN are Operations suspended elected for three year terms by the parties to the ICJ. since 1994. General Assembly. Mandate: to settle legal disputes among Mandate: to initiate or make member states and provide advisory opin- studies, issue recommendations ions on legal questions to the General Assem- and prepare draft conventions for bly and the Security Council. All UN member the General Assembly on issues states are obligated to comply with the court’s related to economic and social rulings. Non-compliance can be referred to development and environment. the Security Council for decision on possible Decision making: Majority voting. enforcement (thus subject to veto power) Judges: fifteen judges, elected for nine- year terms by the General Assembly and the Security Council.
UN PROGRAMMES: SPECIALIZED AGENCIES: RELATED AUTONOMOUS Established by the General Assem- Autonomous organizations but ORGANIZATIONS: bly, varying membership, funding connected to and coordinated Some report to the General and principles of governance. in different ways within the UN Assembly and/or the Security Examples: system Council, others collaborate on an ad hoc basis • UN Development Programme, Examples: UNDP • World Health Organization, Examples: • UN Environmental Programme, WHO • International Criminal Court, UNEP • International Labor Organiza- ICC • World Food Programme, WFP, tion, ILO • International Atomic Energy which were all established by • World Bank Association, IAEA the General Assembly but have their own principles of member- ship, governance and funding
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 39 he history of global gover- the 1989 Montreal Protocol on Sub- nance is – so far – largely a stances that Deplete the Ozone Layer T history of shortage and inade- and the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement quacy. – have contributed to at least redu- Not that there hasn’t been brave cing health hazards, environmental ideas and ambitious proposals. Con- degradation and depletion of natural sider for example the various detailed resources. In some cases, such as the drafts for a World Constitution and United Nations Framework Conven- the political movement for transform- tion on Climate Change, UNFCCC, ing the United Nations into a World they have not solved the issues, but government in the decades following set up conditions for seeking scien- World War II – ambitions that had tific and political consensus on how strong support among scientists, par- to solve them. liamentarians and members of Con- Still, when it comes to agreeing on gress in Europe as well as America. and implementing effective solutions Nor is there a lack of international to some of the greatest and most institutions devoted to global gover- pressing threats to humanity, the nance. Think of the UN system with current system of global governance its complicated web of more than 100 has proved sadly inadequate. More interlinked principal organs, secre- than 700 million people still live in tariats, subsidiary organs and special- extreme poverty, with 29 000 chil- ized agencies, employing more than dren under the age of five dying from 30 000 people all over the world. preventable causes, every day. Global carbon emissions increase for every Many of these institutions have international climate mitigation sum- no doubt made a real difference by mit that is held, and 15 000 nuclear offering solutions or partial solutions weapons continue to threaten human to specific global problems. The UN existence on this earth. has delivered humanitarian aid to numerous crisis areas, saving mil- To amend this obvious deficiency is lions of lives around the world. UN the great challenge for our generation. peacekeeping troops have protected Perhaps some of the historical suc- civilians – but also failed to protect cess stories – partial and insufficient civilians – against atrocities in more as they are – can provide inspiration than 50 armed conflicts, and some- and knowledge for this endeavor? And times been crucial for achieving and perhaps an institution that was built to upholding lasting peace agreements. solve a problem in one area can be ex- Several international conventions panded to other problems as well, and addressing environmental issues – thereby offer a realizable route to a suc- from the 1921 Convention Concerning cessively stronger global governance the Use of White Lead in Painting to system? That is how the European
40 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.3. THE CURRENT SHAPE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – A LOOK INSIDE THE UN STRUCTURE
Union developed from a six country investigate and try war crimes and Coal and Steel Union designed to avoid crimes against humanity. There have war between Germany and France to been ad hoc courts set up for similar today’s increasingly integrated politi- purposes before, beginning with the cal union between 28 countries. Nuremberg trials after World War II, and continuing with the UN inter- Among those partial global gov- national tribunals for Rwanda and ernance success stories, we should former Yugoslavia in the 1990’s. definitely include the Montreal The Court was established by the Protocol, ”perhaps the single most Rome Statute of 1998, following an successful international agreement to international campaign led by a coa- date” according to former UN Secre- lition of human rights organizations. tary General Kofi Annan1. It came into 124 countries have signed the Rome force 1989 and has been ratified by 196 Statute and are thereby under the countries and the EU. The treaty re- Courts jurisdiction. It has so far tried quires all parties to reduce emissions 23 cases and issued 4 verdicts. of chemical substances that contribute The Court is considered by some to the depletion of the ozone layer. to be a historic milestone, ending the The background was a growing impunity of political and military awareness about the importance of leaders committing atrocities. But it the earth’s ozone layer to protect has some serious limitations, most from harmful UV-B radiation and the obviously that important countries destructive effects on the concentra- such as the US, Russia, China and tion of ozone in the atmosphere from India have not signed or not ratified some chemicals used in, for example, the statute. NGO campaigns therefore spray bottles and refrigerators. In continue in order to expand the juris- 1985 new alarming results about an diction of the Court. expanding hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctica created increased An institution that can be cited political pressure for effective mea- as both an example of failure and sures to deal with the issue. as an example of partial success is Compliance with the treaty has been the International Whaling Commis- broad, with sharp cuts in emissions sion, established in 1949 to govern of ozone depleting substances to the the commercial exploitation of the atmosphere. Recent studies show that, world’s whale populations. Until as a result of the ban, the Antarctic the mid 1960s, the organization was ozone hole is starting to recover.2 dominated by whaling nations and its regulations focused on maximiz- Another partial success story ing economic profits from whaling. is the institution of a permanent During the 1960s, it became evident International Criminal Court, ICC, to that whale populations were seriously
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 41 1.3. THE CURRENT SHAPE OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE – A LOOK INSIDE THE UN STRUCTURE
threatened. Environmental orga- expensive enough to motivate broad nizations launched international enough compliance for the morator- campaigns for saving the whales and ium to be at least partly effective. the IWC gradually changed its focus Although data are often uncertain, toward conservation and protection, and also contested, there seems to and developed methods for monitor- be evidence that the moratorium has ing populations and providing scien- allowed some of the species that were tifically grounded policy advice3. In previously heavily exploited to slowly 1982 the IWC issued a moratorium on recover. all commercial whaling, a morator- ium that is still in place although con- These examples are in no way tested by some traditional whaling conclusive. But they show that in- nations. stitutions can be created that allow Interestingly, the IWC does not for responsible governance of global have the power to issue binding rules, resources and abolish impunity for and membership is voluntary. Some the worst atrocities. They also provide traditional whaling countries have at experiences, good and bad, that the times chosen to leave the organization construction of better functioning and resume whaling, but obviously future system of global governance the price in international shaming is could build on.
42 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 MAGNUS JIBORN FOLKE TERSMAN Magnus Jiborn is a philosopher and a journalist, Folke Tersman is Chair Professor of Practical Phi- currently doing research on climate policy and losophy at Uppsala University. He is also the initi- economic development at Lund School of Eco- ator of the Journal of Political Philosophy and has nomics, Lund University. He is also founder and led the interdisciplinary research project Demo- partner of Vetsam, a private institute devoted to cracy Unbound. In 2009, Folke Tersman published science outreach. Magnus has a background in the book Tillsammans – en filosofisk debattbok the peace movement, leading Sweden’s largest – om hur vi kan rädda vårt klimat (Together – A Phil- and the world’s oldest – peace organization in the osophical Debate Book on How We Can Save Our 1990s. He has previously worked with the founder Climate). He recently returned to Sweden after of Global Challenges Foundation, Laszlo Szombat- spending a period of time as guest lecturer at the falvy, in mapping the history of the idea of global University of Sydney in Australia. governance.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 43 44 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.4. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS: WHAT WORKS, WHAT DOESN’T AND WHY?
1.4. Global environmental goals: What works, what doesn’t and why?
Maria Ivanova, Associate Professor of Global Governance and Director, Center for Governance and Sustainability, University of Massachusetts Boston, USA
What is the use of new global treaties if we don’t know the precise effect of existing ones? To deliver better global policy results and improve institutional design, the Environmental Conventions Initiative proposes to measure, explain, and im- prove the level of implementation across global environmen- tal conventions, based on empirical data.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 45 46 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.4. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS: WHAT WORKS, WHAT DOESN’T AND WHY?
ontemporary risks are increas- existing environmental treaties tack- ingly global in scale, scope, led the global risks they were created C and impact. Recent schol- to address? What has made them arship by a team of environmental successful or not? What has enabled scientists4 has pointed to the ur- countries to implement their inter- gency of global action to reduce envi- national obligations and what have ronmental risks as evidence mounts been the stumbling blocks? that humanity has crossed four of Surprisingly, there have been no nine planetary boundaries, which systematic empirical assessments of delineate a “safe operating space for the degree to which countries have humanity”.5 This model acknowl- implemented their commitments edges that humans have become the under global environmental conven- major driver of global environmen- tions. As a result, there is no baseline tal change and that, if unchecked, against which to assess performance, human activity threatens to cause actions, or even expectations; and irreversible environmental change. without empirical evidence, we Two of the planetary boundaries risk erroneous conclusions. In the – climate change and biosphere in- absence of implementation measure- tegrity – set core limits and crossing ment, it is impossible to determine them would “drive the Earth System whether these conventions solve into a new state”.6 the problems they were created to Global environmental conventions, address. Moreover, without under- also known as treaties or agreements, standing what enables or prevents are the main international legal countries from implementing their instrument for promoting collective obligations, no serious institutional action toward dealing with global en- reform can take place either at the vironmental risks and staying within national or international level. In the safe planetary operating space. essence, current scholarship is not While it is estimated that there are able to determine whether the global approximately 1,100 multilateral en- organization charged with address- vironmental agreements7, just about ing global risks – the United Nations a dozen of these treaties are truly – possesses a reliable mechanism for global and deal with global risks planetary stewardship. related to climate change, land-sys- tem change, biosphere change, and At the University of Massachu- chemicals and waste. As we an- setts Boston, we have launched a re- ticipate the entry into force of the search initiative to address this gap. 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and The Environmental Conventions prepare for the implementation of Initiative seeks to measure, explain, the Sustainable Development Goals, and improve the level of implemen- it is logical to ask oneself: How have tation across global environmental
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 47 48 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 conventions.8 We use the national 2001. The outcomes demonstrate the reports countries submit to the con- value of the exercise. Preliminary ventions to track and compare im- findings show that: plementation results. At the heart of • performance has improved over this endeavor is an index that illus- time; trates trends across countries, within • many developing countries are countries (across issues and over more consistent with reporting time), and across conventions. The and show higher performance than index is a composite score derived expected; from the answers to the questions • many countries report consist- in the national reports submitted to ently, even when the data show each convention secretariat.9 poor results; Aligning the data from these agree- • the complexity of the reporting ments is a particularly complex task process is not necessarily a deter- as each convention has its own re- rent to reporting compliance; porting platform, requirements, and • institutional support from the sec- timeline. Over the past three years, a retariats is important in ensuring team of researchers has coded over regular reporting and facilitating 90,000 data points dating back to implementation.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 49 Surprisingly, there have been no systematic empirical assessments of the degree to which countries have implemented their commitments under global environmental conventions. As a result, there is no baseline against which to assess performance, actions, or even expectations.
50 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 1.4. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS: WHAT WORKS, WHAT DOESN’T AND WHY?
The environmental conventions new global agreements, including implementation index, as well as an- the Paris Climate Agreement, the alytical country profiles and related Minamata Convention on mercury, training modules, will be valuable and the Sustainable Development tools for accountability and trans- Goals, will benefit from the lessons parency in national commitments of this research. These lessons could and global policies. Empirical results inform policy dialogues about how are key to understanding the dy- to assess collective action, how to namics of implementation, engaging identify and overcome barriers to with policymakers, and identifying national reporting, and how best to leverage points for improvement. use conventions to inform national Importantly, implementation of policies and engagement.
MARIA IVANOVA Maria Ivanova is an international relations and environmental policy scholar. She is associate professor of global governance at the John W. McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies at the University of Massachusetts Boston where she also co-directs the Center for Governance and Sustainability. She is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the U.N. Secretary-General, a board mem- ber of the U.N. University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustain- ability (UNU-IAS) and the Ecologic Institute in Berlin, and an Andrew Carnegie Fellow.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 51 PART 2 – EMERGING TRENDS
Part 2 Emerging Trends
52 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 53 54 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.1. GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – COURTS AS THE NEW GAME-CHANGERS
2.1. Governance for sustainable development – courts as the new game-changers
Malini Mehra, Chief Executive, GLOBE International, UK
As governments show signs of losing credibility for their capacity to tackle the world’s greatest challenges, could the courts offer a new sense of hope for international governance? Recent cases at the national and international level signal a new role for the judiciary in protecting global public goods. At a time of great uncertainty, courts may be the new game-changers in reshaping our institutions.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 55 56 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.1. GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – COURTS AS THE NEW GAME-CHANGERS
hat does ExxonMobil, the Mali and Niger, the case against the giant US fossil fuels cor- Ansar Dine terrorist Al Mahdi, who W poration, have in common confessed to the destruction of with Islamic terrorist Ahmad al-Faqi UNESCO-protected religious and al-Mahdi? On the face of it, little. historic sites in Timbuktu, Mali, in Both however are the subject of judi- 2012, was keenly watched in light cial investigations with far-reaching of cultural atrocities committed by implications for global governance Daesh in Iraq and Syria. The Court’s and justice in the 21st century. In judgment in August 2016 found Al the recent case of ExxonMobil, the Mahdi guilty of the crimes beyond company is under investigation by reasonable doubt and sentenced him state attorneys in New York and Mas- to nine years’ imprisonment. sachusetts on suspicion of failing to Shortly on the heels of this prece- disclose well-known risks of climate dent-setting case, the International change to company shareholders. Criminal Court broke ground again With the company’s notoriety as in September 2016, this time by a supporter of climate denialism announcing that it would henceforth already on the public record, any include factors such as the “destruc- covert corporate attempt to thwart tion of the environment, the illegal strict disclosure laws on non-finan- exploitation of natural resources or cial risk for shareholders could prove the illegal dispossession of land” highly damaging. Where environ- within its remit of criminal justice. mental campaigners have failed to This vastly broadened remit for pur- bring the multinational corporation suing claims against governments, to account for alleged environmental companies or individuals by affected crimes, it may well be that the courts communities, on everything from succeed. reckless mining to land grabs, has huge implications, and a new fron- The Al Mahdi case signals another tier for justice seekers has opened. breakthrough in judicial intervention on the global cultural commons, this There is little doubt that judge- time by the International Criminal ments such as the Al Mahdi case, Court in The Hague. Known princi- or recent court actions on climate pally for its focus on crimes against change such as the Dutch Urgenda humanity, the 15-year old United and Pakistan’s Leghari cases, all Nations court broke with convention represent game-changers. They in the Al Mahdi case to establish have established litigation through the willful destruction of cultural national and international courts as heritage as a war crime. Brought to the new battleground for governance the International Criminal Court at of the global commons and public the behest of the governments of goods. As one looks to the future,
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 57 As one looks to the future, with governments losing trust and credibility with electorates, the roles of the legislature and judiciary – the other two pillars of constitutional governance – are coming back into focus as sites of democratic redress.
58 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.1. GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – COURTS AS THE NEW GAME-CHANGERS
with governments losing trust and rule of law and strengthen mecha- credibility with electorates, the roles nisms for international legal redress of the legislature and judiciary – the on climate change, oceans and other two pillars of constitutional forests crises. Working with legisla- governance – are coming back into tors through groups such as GLOBE focus as sites of democratic redress. International, their reach and impact can be profound and reshape public Environmental lawyers and expectations of, and confidence in, judges, in particular, have not been democratic public institutions. At a slow off the mark. In April 2016, time of great uncertainty and global a group of eminent international challenge, confidence in a world jurists established the Global Judi- governed by the rule of law in an in- cial Institute on the Environment in dependent and equitable manner is a Brazil to promote the environmental precious, and renewable, resource.
MALINI MEHRA Malini Mehra is Chief Executive of GLOBE International, the world’s leading network of environmental legislators working across party lines to advance sustainable development. At GLOBE, Malini started a dialogue between legislators and the judiciary to improve under- standing of their role in governance for sustainable development. This builds on her three decades of experience internationally in establish- ing institutions and innovating for sustainability in leadership roles within NGOs, governments, UN bodies and the private sector. She has served on UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan’s Panel on UN-Civil Society Relations and was the architect of the UK Governments’ pio- neering Sustainable Development Dialogues with China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico. Her present focus is on improving demo- cratic governance for delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 59 60 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.2. PRIVATIZATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
2.2. Privatization of Global Governance
Sachin Joshi, Director, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII-ITC) Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development, India
Are we currently heading towards a privatization of global governance? Private entities have emerged as key solution providers for the world’s greatest challenges, and exert control over technologies crucial to the future of humanity – in consequence, they now have a seat at the global negotiating table. Historical precedents encourage us to pay attention: this may well be the beginning of a new paradigm.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 61 62 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.2. PRIVATIZATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
he engagement of non-state finding themselves with strange actors and more specifically bedfellows. T for-profit entities in global There might be genuine desire governance is not a new practice, from the private sector to save the and has been the object of specu- planet and humanity. However, this lation and research for quite some desire may also be triggered by the time now. This phenomenon can be realization that sustainable develop- traced back to the pre-globalization ment is the biggest business oppor- era. However, since the globalization tunity of our times and could be a of trade and commerce has been propeller for economic growth in an promoted as a panacea for the pros- otherwise gloomy global economic perity of mankind in the 1970s, this environment. In addition, the call for phenomenon has visibly scaled up, politicians to agree on a climate deal and reached higher levels of formal- or phase out HFCs provides direc- ization. tion and predictability in a business environment that has become hugely The private sector was brought on volatile and uncertain. board for the Convention on Bio- logical Diversity, the Millennium Three elements may help us make Development Goals, and various sense of this new phenomenon. multilateral trade negotiations. Recent events have led the pri- Most recently a number of inter- vate sector to realize that it needs to national agreements, including the cure its own evils for the sake of its Sustainable Development Goals and own sustainability. This was made the Paris Agreement, have seen the clear in the aftermath of the Leh- private sector even more extensively man Brothers bankruptcy that led to involved in discussions, and sitting recession in the US and the EU. This at the table as a potential solution might also be true of practices within provider. the pharmaceutical industry, where This marks a clear change from protecting intellectual property at earlier periods, when the private the cost of much larger benefits to sector tended to act as a lobby group, humankind may no longer be a vi- advocating on behalf of its own able option for the future. interests rather than the common For a long time, the private sector good. In some cases, sections of the has been part of the problem. Involv- private sector have even built up ing private sector entities in deci- activist-style pressures on heads of sion-making on global governance states to make progress on global issues may therefore be necessary agreements. Conventional activists to stop further damage and develop and campaigners who frequently new standards for voluntary action, targeted the private sector are now as well as new regulations. This was
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 63 2.2. PRIVATIZATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
one of the main reasons why the offer a point of reference. Convention on Biological Diversity States have been governed in engaged actively with the private various manners over history, by sector. However, it must be noted monarchs, by elected governments, that some criticize this approach, ar- or by dictators. Although changes guing that the private sector will not from one form of governance to the endorse any form of regulation that other has not happened linearly, and might reduce economic growth and for long periods of time, in various business profitability. Many scholars parts of the world, one or other call for vigilance to ensure that the system prevailed, we might see a process engages all key stakeholders pattern of successive evolution from and is not dominated by the private one to the other. More importantly, a sector. range of other sources of power have As global risks more evidently be- exerted influence. come potential business opportuni- ties, the private sector is also becom- A key point of comparison here ing a potential source of solutions could be the role of religious institu- for the key challenges that the world tions. In many places, religious insti- faces. This change is supported by tutions have been a key player within other actors. Legislators and policy- established systems of governance. makers have long given up on being Their authority comes from the proc- solution providers, adopting the role lamation that they can act as a rep- of facilitator instead – whether they resentative or avatar of God. Where play this role without biases will be religious institutions held a position revealed in the future. Meanwhile, of power, social rules regarding the the third sector is looking to be more best way to conduct one’s life were than a watchdog, and getting more typically established in relation to comfortable helping the private the dominant religious framework, sector improve its public image. In as articulated by these religious this new configuration, global risk institutions. Often, religious institu- reduction is no longer a zero-sum tions were a dominant social force, game for the various types of actors even when monarchs formally held involved. power over the State. Over time, some of those monarchs became As the private sector reinvents independent, whereas others acted itself, and its status shifts from largely under religion’s influence – “subject of regulation” to “catalyst in certain countries, such influence, of a future we want”, are we heading or its consequences, is still visible towards the privatisation of global today. In other cases, as monarchs governance? Perhaps the evolution gained partial independence from of other governance systems could religion, they set up models that gave
64 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 rise to secular state systems. Some of power plays and the influence of dif- those monarchs still hold a measure ferent actors on human society. of power within a constitutional In all likelihood, the importance system, while elected governments of the private sector and its influ- go about the daily business of gover- ence on human lives is only going nance. Although the level of prog- to grow. Private sector control over ress towards such a constitutional public goods is likely to keep increas- arrangement varies from country to ing: beyond utilities, private sector country, progress towards secularism entities exert increasing control over seems to be a desirable evolution for intellectual and financial assets, politics and governance alike. especially as private sector entities develop new technologies, and gain There is no exact parallel between ownership over them. The level of the evolution of governance in private sector control could increase nation states and global governance particularly over artificial intelli- – one of the main reasons being that gence, human genome mapping, and nations typically do have a govern- a range of other technological devel- ment while there is currently no opments that are key to the future global government. Nevertheless, provision of comfort for humanity, history holds many lessons about and may even become critical to
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 65 It is hard to imagine the public sector and the third sector making progress on governance architectures, particularly those involving new technologies, without a substantial role for the private sector.
66 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.2. PRIVATIZATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
the sustenance of human life. Such center stage of global governance, technologies also condition any its relationship with governments possibility to develop inter-planetary and global governance institutions human colonies. It is therefore hard is undergoing profound change. to imagine the public sector and These relations are changing from a the third sector making progress on situation where parties won’t even governance architectures, particular- acknowledge each other’s presence ly those involving new technologies, to one of growing mutual comfort – without a substantial role for the from dubious connection to un- private sector. abashed partnership. This might well As the private sector moves be the beginning of a privatization of from a backdoor presence to the global governance.
SACHIN JOSHI Sachin Joshi is Director of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII-ITC) Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development, where his work focuses on developing and supporting world-leading methods for sustainability labelling and CSR tracking. Previously, Sachin steered operations of the Centre for Social Markets (CSM) – a UK-based not- for-profit – and participated in the Deutsches Institut für Entwicklung- spolitik’s (German Development Institute) Global Governance School. Sachin has authored a range of reports and articles on innovation, business models, CSR, climate change, and international relations.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 67 68 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.3. GENDER EQUALITY IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE: NOT AN OPTIONAL EXTRA
2.3. Gender equality in global governance: not an optional extra
Anne Marie Goetz, Professor, Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University, USA
How can we ensure that our global institutions do not disregard half of humanity? Current structures of global governance do not offer women a role equal to men in decision-making, nor do they show any clear signs of consistently supporting the challenges that women face around the world. Change will take more than simple gender parity in institutional staffing – we need global institutions that embrace a feminist agenda, and actively fight misogyny everywhere.
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s the UN’s ninth Secre- national wealth, the quality of demo- tary-General, Antonios cracy, the nature of the dominant re- A Guterres, prepares to take up ligious system, or region.12 Misogyny office on January 1, 2017, he is being is not a side show. It is a driver of de- flooded with advice on repurposing structive decision-making. Combat- the UN to respond to 21st century ting misogyny cannot be postponed challenges. Women’s leadership and until after peace, climate change or participation – and an institutional disarmament negotiations are over. capacity to promote gender equality – As the anti-war activist Cynthia Enloe has to be at the core of these proposals. says: ‘”later” is a patriarchal time- zone’.13 Postponement has been the The rank sexism that triumphed fate of women’s rights in multilateral in the 2016 US presidential election institutions from the start, and it has campaign, contributing to a global to stop. tide of belligerent nationalism, rac- ism and xenophobia, rings a strident Gender parity in staffingis not alarm to which multilateralism must the way this will be achieved. It is a respond. Misogyny cannot be ig- common mistake to conflate gender nored or framed as just a problem for balance with an institutional orien- unfortunate women in distant poor tation to gender equality. Though countries. It is a mobilizational tool gender parity is desirable for its own linked to racism and isolationism of sake, it is sexist to assume that all the kind that undermines multilateral women share – by virtue of their sex cooperation. This is obvious from – a commitment to women’s rights, the fact that violent extremists make or a capacity to promote equality.14 women’s social and sexual subordi- Gender balance in staffing and lead- nation foundational to state building ership has been justified on sub- – to the point of bureaucratizing the stantive grounds (women will bring sale of women as sex slaves10, as ISIS gender equality perspectives), or on has done with Yazidi women. efficiency grounds (women reduce Research has established that in risk-taking behavior and improve the countries where autonomous fem- quality of decision-making), or on jus- inist organizations function freely, tice grounds (we should combat the governments are able to combat discrimination that prevents qual- violence against women11, and are ified women from being recruited). also more likely to find peaceful The reliability of the first two justifi- solutions to internal and external cations Is still in question, since there disputes. Indeed, the level of violence are still too few contexts with more against women in any country is a than a token number of women in better predictor of national propensi- power to know what difference they ty to engage in armed conflict than is make. But if combatting misogyny is
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an objective (and it must be) of mul- foreign policy expert Helena Swan- tilateralism, then what multilateral wick lamented, when she joined the institutions need, well beyond gender 1924 UK delegation to the League, parity in staffing, are clear mandates that she would be confined to that to promote gender equality, well-re- committee simply because she was a sourced gender equality institutional woman, calling it ‘a rag-bag of miser- engines positioned within the power ies and forlorn hopes’.15 The UN made core, and accountability systems history in 2010 by merging its four that prevent failures to advance the tiny and competing gender units into gender equality mandate. These an operational agency, UN Women, accountability systems must be moni- but this has been constrained from tored by women around the world, inception by inadequate funding. women fighting for gender equality. Without engagement from women on 2016 saw not only the dashing of the ground, gender parity in staffing hopes for the first woman president is an elitist project and gender-sensi- of the US – a country that ranks an tive institutional architecture will not unimpressive 99th in the world in effectively address sexism. terms of numbers of women in its leg- Women’s movements have histor- islature16 – but also the failure of the ically put great faith in multilateral- UN to appoint its first woman Secre- ism, seeing international institutions tary-General in spite of exceptionally as arenas in which to circumvent well-qualified women constituting for domestic patriarchies, securing inter- the first time the majority of nomi- national commitments to women’s nees for the post. Within the UN, 2015 rights that would be inconceivable and 2016 also saw revelations that the at home. But institutions such as the proportion of women amongst senior League of Nations and the UN, the managers in the Secretariat had fallen IMF and the World Bank, as well as from a ‘high’ of 24% in 2012 to less regional groups such as the OECD, than 22% today, with fresh appoint- the EU or the African Union, have ments to these positions in 2015 being historically treated gender equality as 84% male.17 For feminists within the a marginal project, assigning a small system, it is no surprise. The UN underfunded institutional unit to General Assembly pledged in 1990 to women as a post-foundational after- elevate the proportion of women in thought. At the League of Nations, senior management to 25% by 1995. for instance, gender – or specifically, When that goal was not achieved, it trafficking in women – was lumped resolved in 1996 to achieve a 50-50 in its Fifth Committee along with opi- gender balance in all posts by 2000. um, refugees, relief after earthquakes, That date came and went without alcoholism, and the protection of comment. The engine behind these children. The highly experienced demands had been the UN’s global
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 73 The future of multilateralism must include not just a ‘best intentions’ commitment to gender parity in staffing and gender equality in objectives, but mandatory steps towards those goals.
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women’s conferences of 1975, 1980, placing feminists in powerful posi- 1985 and 1995. 2015 was the expected tions, and making gender equality an date for the Fifth World Conference institutional priority. This is why the on women – but tentative efforts campaigns to elect a woman Secre- to get the ball rolling in 2012 were tary General to the UN stressed that snuffed by fears18 that the darkening they wanted to see a feminist at the global environment for women’s helm.19 The true test for male multi- rights might roll back normative lateral leaders who self-identify as achievements. feminist, such as Mr. Guterres, will be The future of multilateralism must the extent to which they continue to include not just a ‘best intentions’ insist on women’s rights even when commitment to gender parity in staff- it is politically inexpedient, which it ing and gender equality in objectives, often is. Misogyny anywhere affects but mandatory steps towards those people everywhere. That is the defini- goals. This is not an elitist project of tion of an issue needing a multilateral finding jobs for the girls. It is about solution.
ANNE MARIE GOETZ Anne Marie Goetz is a Clinical Professor at the Center for Global Af- fairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. She was for- merly Chief Advisor on Peace and Security at UN Women. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Cambridge, and is a regular commentator on women and international affairs.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 75 76 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.4. CHINA’S ROLE IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
2.4. China’s role in global governance
Pang Zhongying, Professor, Centre for the Study of Global Governance, School of International Studies, Renmin University, China
How is global governance likely to change in the context of a rising China? Since the beginning of the 21st century, the country has deepened its involvement in existing structures while advocating for reforms and establishing its own position as a bridging actor. While there is hope that China may become a source of stability in a shifting, uncertain world, its long march towards a clear, established role in global governance has not yet ended.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 77 78 2.4. CHINA’S ROLE IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
ince the beginning of the 21st accelerate. One approach consists century, China has shown in sponsoring new international S the greatest interest in global institutions as a way to reform global governance. In practice, China has governance institutions, an approach increased its contribution both to the known in Chinese as “Dao Bi”. The material provision of global public Beijing-headquartered Asian Infra- goods and to ideas and reflection on structure Investment Bank (AIIB) how best to provide them. China now is a prominent case of this “Dao Bi” exports its experience in economic approach. The World Bank and other development and in political/social international financial institutions governance to other countries in have felt the challenge posed by the Asia, Africa and elsewhere – in parti- AIIB. cular, Africa has become a major des- Third, China acts as a “middle” tination for the “Chinese experience” actor in global forums addressing in development. global challenges. China’s role in the G20 and the success of the Chinese The Chinese Communist Party G20 presidency in 2016 show that now sees global governance as a top China is moving quickly to a central priority for China’s foreign policy. position in global governance. China However, China’s role in global gov- enjoys a natural “middle”-ness, ernance is complex. acting as a bridge between the “de- First, China continues to deepen veloped” world (the “Global North”) its relations with existing global and the “developing” world (the institutions as part of existing global “Global South”). China is a member governance systems. After the lift of of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, China’s voting power in the Inter- India and South Africa) grouping, national Monetary Fund (IMF) and which is a caucus similar to the G7 the World Bank, China’s currency within the G20 – a hybrid but prime has joined the basket of currencies of platform for managing the global the International Monetary Fund’s economy. Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). China has also become a leading What does China’s role in global gov- contributor to the UN peacekeeping ernance imply for others, particularly operations. the West, and for the future of global Second, China is no longer re- governance? The US and Europe have luctant to acknowledge that it is long hoped that China could become a a revisionist actor, and openly “responsible stakeholder” in a rules- presents itself as a reformist player based global system. Now, China is in the process of reforming existing evolving towards becoming a major global governance institutions – a player in providing new solutions to process that China even presses to global challenges. This may be one of
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 79 Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has shown the greatest interest in global governance. In practice, China has increased its contribution both to the material provision of global public goods and to ideas and reflection on how best to provide them.
80 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.4. CHINA’S ROLE IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
the most positive developments in a huge resources towards international time of increasing “global governance engagement (for instance through deficit”. the “Silk Road” initiative) and even However, the world has to realize the development of its “soft power”, the limits of China’s role in global China still relies on old global in- governance. China’s “long march” stitutions for advice and support in towards a modernized economy and transforming China’s economy and democratized governance is still society. While China takes the lead unfinished. The so-called “China to become a rule-maker, it is still model” and the “China experience” unknown whether China, the US and are not simply valuable, but also Europe will be able to act in concert problematic. While China projects for better global governance.
PANG ZHONGYING Pang Zhongying is a Professor of International Relations and the Founding Director at the Centre for the Study of Global Governance at the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China. He is also a Distinguished Provincial Professor of Global Affairs at Zhejiang Normal University in Jinhua, China. His current research interests are comparative world order, global governance and China’s foreign policy. Pang Zhongying served in both the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) and the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia. He was director of the Global Studies Institute at Nankai University in Tianjin, and founding dean of the School of International Studies, Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 81 82 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.5. PERSPECTIVES ON THE AFRICAN SINGLE PASSPORT
2.5. Perspectives on the African single passport
Atangcho Nji Akonumbo, Associate Professor of Law, University of Yaoundé II/University of Bamenda, Cameroon
Could the recent institution of a single African passport, by stimulating trade and movement, effectively reduce poverty in the world’s most fragmented continent? Although this initiative signals a positive trend towards greater integration, only concerted effort and investment towards education, infrastructure, and conflict reduction will support long-term unity, growth and prosperity for Africa.
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an the institutionalisation create a continent-wide market of a single African biometric which could stimulate intra-African C passport effect integration trade and investment, encourage and poverty reduction in Africa amid entrepreneurship and business di- security and stability concerns? versification. This would reduce the In recent years, African leaders widespread dependence on goods have seen the pressing need for from outside the continent and offer Africa’s development and have called new business opportunities to many for greater integration. This is now citizens, including jobs, as a result firmly rooted in Aspirations 2 and 7 of greater employment mobility, of Agenda 2063 of the African Union thus helping to reduce the poverty (AU), respectively calling for an ‘in- cycle. Improved standards of living tegrated’ and a ‘united’ Africa. The would in turn reduce brain drain and recent adoption of the single African illegal migration from the continent biometric passport, similar to Schen- by educated and skilled workers in gen in the European Union (EU), is a search of greener pastures, as well major step in this direction. as the tragedies which go with this. However, as in the case of the EU, Under the 1991 Abuja Treaty, some of the more developed econo- frameworks for African integra- mies within Africa would likely re- tion and economic development strict entry of nationals from weaker were established, with the division of economies in search of jobs, for fear the continent into sub regional (inte- of socioeconomic pressures. gration) blocs, or Regional Economic Nonetheless, integration cannot Communities (RECs), intended be achieved by merely facilitating to serve as pillars of a united Afri- free movements through a single can economy, the African Economic passport. Single passports have Community (AEC). However, Africa been introduced in RECs such as is still considered the most frag- the Economic Community of West mented region in the world. Infra- African States (ECOWAS) and the structural, security and stability Economic and Monetary Community constraints do not facilitate integra- of Central Africa States (CEMAC), tion and trade, as compared with but proven not to be the litmus test other regions, such as the Caribbean for true integration, and even less and South-East Asia. It has thus so for poverty reduction. According been rightly observed that Africa has to the 2013 Human Development integrated with the rest of the world Report of the United Nations De- faster than with itself. velopment Programme (UNDP), Economically, easing entry re- 12 out of the 15 countries within strictions among African nations ECOWAS experience some of the through a common passport would lowest socio-economic development
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 85 86 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 indicators, including the lowest economic growth and sustainable Human Development Index ratings development – prerequisites for in the world, and the situation in poverty reduction. Ease of move- CEMAC is no better. The traditional ment under the single passport problems of poverty, disease, mal- regime will support the distribution nutrition, unemployment and low of human capital across the Conti- living standards continue to exist in nent, and might constitute a trigger those Communities. Indeed, African towards its development. States integration should be considered should therefore invest in human as a development-oriented project capital via education and training as incorporating regionalisation of well as skills development. Increased citizenship through effective mobil- spending in education, in itself, is a ity and formal trade and investment, strategy to produce an intelligent, and include other standard socioeco- creative and reliable workforce. nomic and political measures such Enhanced mobility under the single as developing human capital and passport would promote a more even infrastructural, and a focus on peace distribution of technical expertise and stability. across states, and alleviate shortag- es in certain parts of the continent. States have to adopt an integrated However, concerns associated with approach to develop a reliable work- the free movement of labour may force which will drive the desired arise, particularly in relation to the 88 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.5. PERSPECTIVES ON THE AFRICAN SINGLE PASSPORT
recognition of qualifications from a continental airline company, which different regions or unfamiliar edu- would operate affordable intra-conti- cational systems. The establishment nental flights. Infrastructural strides of national equivalence systems must be complemented by the elimi- could be of great help here. The East nation of abusive tariff and customs/ African region has addressed this dif- immigration barriers, police controls ficulty by encouraging mutual recog- and other non-physical barriers. In nition of professional and academic fact, non-tariff and regulatory barri- qualifications in areas crucial for the ers cause unnecessary delays, raise continent’s industrialisation, such as transaction costs and prices, limit engineering and architecture. Inter- the movement of goods, services, university cooperation, facilitating people and capital across borders, cross-border mobility for students and encourage corrupt practices, and lecturers, will also be helpful in which are all inimical to sound better spreading training and trained integration and poverty reduction labour. strategies. The single passport would invari- ably trigger investment in infrastruc- Long-term peace, security and ture, since free movement of persons political stability among African and goods cannot be achieved in states are vital tools of unrestric- the absence of robust and reliable ted mobility, integration, economic transport infrastructure networks. growth and poverty alleviation Currently, Africa is poorly serviced plans. Conversely, mobility and with roads and railways, while air integration can propagate peace, se- flights are still very expensive. A curity and stability by spreading the robust regional transport infrastruc- culture of tolerance and the virtues ture would contribute to the politi- of good governance which underlie cal, economic and social integration them (transparency, accountability, of the continent as well as enable the respect for human rights, primacy of even distribution of human capital the rule of law, etc). Yet, considering and the transportation of goods present conditions of insecurity and between important areas of produc- instability, particularly in the Sahel tion and consumption. The comple- belt and central Africa, enhanced tion of the trans-African highway mobility could equally work the project, consisting of nine main cor- other way. In this context, mobility ridors on a 59 100 kilometres stretch, may facilitate the spillage of inse- can propel the achievement of this curity and instability into peace- goal. The highway should be sup- ful areas. In fact, some countries plemented by railway networks and will legitimately resist free access sub-regional networks. Also, African into their territories, if that were states should consider (re)launching to happen or could be anticipated.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 89 Long-term peace, security and political stability among African states is vital for unrestricted mobility, integration, economic growth and poverty alleviation plans.
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To safeguard greater security and mobility of persons, goods/services stability, African states would have and capital. However, they involve to resolutely work to prevent and end long term processes, which must conflicts peacefully. They unavoid- be accompanied by both economic ably need to invest in new techno- and non-economic factors including logies supporting effective traveller reforms, mobilisation of financial identification, such as tracking resources, institutions, implemen- management systems and integrated tation strategies and mechanisms, border controls. Police and judicial human capital and infrastructural cooperation between states should development, security and stable also be reinforced. conditions as well as politically committed African leaders ready Obviously, the upshot of the single to share and achieve the common African passport is huge. Regional vision. Thus, the single passport is a integration and economic develop- precursor to integration and devel- ment leading to poverty reduction opment, not a magic wand towards could be achieved by increased those ends.
ATANGCHO NJI AKONUMBO Atangcho Nji Akonumbo is an Associate Professor of Law and Vice- Dean in Charge of Research and Cooperation at the University of Bamenda, Cameroon. He serves as an Official legal advisor to the Board of Custodians of the AfricaWide Movement for Children (AMC). His main fields of expertise are human rights law, corporate law and intellectual property. He is a lecturer and a professor of law in several universities in Cameroon, South Africa, and in the USA, and a very active expert providing legal advice and drafting laws in the areas of intellectual property and human rights issues since 1998 in several countries. He is consultant on child rights with a number of organiza- tions such as AU and ACPF. He also serves as an Official Legal Advisor to the Board of Custodians of the AfricaWide Movement for Children (AMC).
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 91 92 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.6. FROM THE REGIONAL TO THE GLOBAL: BETTER ACHIEVE TOGETHER WHAT CANNOT BE ACHIEVED APART 2.6. From the regional to the global: better achieve together what cannot be achieved apart
Professor Ian Manners, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
What can the designers of new global governance models learn from the European experience? Over its seventy years of existence, the European Union has achieved peace, prosperity and progress in a continent that, for centuries, had hardly experienced ten years without a war. The core factor of this success lies in the fundamental goal of the EU: to better achieve together what cannot be achieved apart.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 93 94 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.6. FROM THE REGIONAL TO THE GLOBAL: BETTER ACHIEVE TOGETHER WHAT CANNOT BE ACHIEVED APART
t the core of the European far from conflicts with their neigh- Union Treaty is the bours. The more recent conflicts in A little-understood article 5 on Yugoslavia and Ukraine illustrate the principle of subsidiarity, which that the past seven decades of peace can be paraphrased in this way: in Europe can only be extended in “the European Union acts to better the long term through EU member achieve together what cannot be states acting together. achieved apart”. Is there anything to be learned from taking this prin- Prosperity in Europe has improved ciple from the regional to the global? dramatically since the 1950s because I argue that there is something to of regional cooperation. The living be learned about addressing global standards of every EU member state risks through global solutions from have improved significantly since the way that the EU achieved peace, the 1950s, in particular those coun- prosperity, and progress together, tries that started from a low standard and that these results cannot be in Southern and Eastern Europe. achieved apart. Rising living standards across the EU include substantial improvements in Peace in Europe, and across the income per person, education, and globe, is only guaranteed by address- life expectancy. It is possible that ing the roots of conflict. Prior to the states could have improved their process of European integration in living standards without the EU, but the 1950s, going back centuries, it is the relative decline of non-member almost impossible to find a decade states such as the UK from 1950 until of peace between current EU mem- membership in 1973 makes clear that ber states. Clearly, peace among this is probably not the case. European nations since 1950 has not been achieved by the EU alone – the Social progress in Europe has been presence of the USA, NATO, and the achieved through the spread of social fear of the Soviet Union were all im- freedoms and rights, changing our portant factors. But NATO defends relationship with our environment, European members from external and supporting the spread of demo- aggression, it does not prevent cracy. The social freedoms of people conflict amongst European states, living in Europe have increased as the 1974-2004 conflict between massively since the 1980s. These now NATO members Greece and Turkey include the freedom to travel, study, over Cyprus illustrates. The military live and work in each other’s coun- interests of the USA have swung tries without significant restriction. towards East Asia, leaving Europe- At the same time, social rights, par- ans to deal with Russia on their own. ticularly human rights and workers’ Most EU members have never been rights, such as gender equality, LGBT
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 95 At the core of the European Union Treaty is the little-understood article 5 on the principle of subsidiarity, which can be paraphrased in this way: ‘the European Union acts to better achieve together what cannot be achieved apart’.
96 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.6. FROM THE REGIONAL TO THE GLOBAL: BETTER ACHIEVE TOGETHER WHAT CANNOT BE ACHIEVED APART
rights, paid holiday leave, parental for ensuring that countries are safer leave, equal pay, fair treatment, and for people to travel, study, live and limits to the working week have all work within. But more importantly, become law across Europe because the fact that democracies do not go of the EU. The EU has promoted the to war with each other means that strongest environmental protection peace, prosperity, and progress in programmes and laws in the world, Europe and across the globe can trying to lead the massive transfor- only be guaranteed if the goal of our mations needed to cope with climate collaboration is to better achieve change. The spread of democracy together what cannot be achieved through EU membership is crucial apart.
IAN MANNERS Ian Manners is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen. Ian Manners works at the nexus of critical social theory and the study of the European Union in global politics. His current research interest looks at the EU and global governance at the intersections of global economy, society, environ- ment, conflict and politics. Ian has uniquely contributed to all three major handbooks on EU studies, and his work received a number of academic prizes.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 97 98 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.7. THE ‘BIG JUMP INTO THE JORDAN’ – PUTTING WATER BEFORE CONFLICT
2.7. The ‘Big Jump into the Jordan’ – putting water before conflict
Gidon Bromberg, Israel co-director, Nader Khateeb, Palestine co-director Nader Khateeb, Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Palestine Munqeth Mehyar, Jordan co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Israel, Jordan, Palestine
How could a river holy to half humanity turn into little more than a sewer? Cross-border conflict has led to the demise of the Jordan and caused severe loss of biodiversity. Yet hope exists: initiatives are building awareness among local communities and bring together the mayors of bordering cities for a symbolic act of collective belonging – jumping together into the Jordan. And as local leaders take steps towards increased collaboration, the river is showing the first signs of a rebirth.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 99 100 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.7. THE ‘BIG JUMP INTO THE JORDAN’ – PUTTING WATER BEFORE CONFLICT
e are at the Jordan River, 95% of its fresh waters have been just a few kilometers south diverted under Israeli, Syrian and W of the Sea of Galilee. Pales- Jordanian government policies. The tinian, Israeli and Jordanian mayors river just south of the Sea of Galilee is are getting ready to make a big splash the border between Israel and Jordan, – they are going to literally jump into and further south, between the West the river together for an event called Bank and Jordan. The river is either the ‘Big Jump into the Jordan’. fenced off, with mine fields along If the event was being held along its banks, or surrounded by military the Rhine or Mississippi rivers, in check points preventing access from Europe or the US respectively, local both west and east sides. As a border, mayors jumping into a river that they the river is also a ‘danger area’, and share would hardly make the news. thus became the backyard dumping In the Middle East though, the ‘Big ground for Israeli, Jordanian and Jump into the Jordan’ is covered by Palestinian sewage. Effluents have CNN and the BBC as well as many replaced the fresh water that once local media outlets. What is clearly flowed, killing off an estimated 50% unique here is the fact that despite of the biodiversity that used to live in their continuing political conflict, a once healthy, fast-flowing river. often with much loss of life, the par- ticipating Palestinians, Israelis and So, what has empowered these Jordanians have identified an issue of mayors to take joint action when the such high common concern that they facts on the ground are so bleak? are willing to take united action. For over a decade, a program called ‘Good Water Neighbors’ has been But why the fuss over the Jordan? running in the region. The program Aren’t the mayors at risk of being started in local schools, where youth, called traitors by their own commu- teachers and parents learned about nities for daring to make a common the history of the river, considering statement of concern? both its human and natural heritage. If you cross the Jordan over the One question was asked: how could famous Allenby Bridge and blink, a river Holy to half of humanity be you will miss seeing a river at all. In turned into a sewage canal? Walking a semi-arid area, water is scarce and trails were developed, taking local communities need that water for residents to see the demise, and ask- drinking, farming and industry. Water ing them, where is my water coming diversion is therefore to be expected. from? Where does my sewage go? But when coupled with conflict, the The trails get as close as they can to result is total demise. In fact, since the border, so participants can look the 1960s, the River Jordan has be- beyond the fence, and ask about the come little more than an open sewer. water situation on the other side.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 101 Understanding the river and its cross border meandering makes it obvious that cooperation is not about doing a favor to the other side, but a necessity, and a matter of self-interest.
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Great efforts have also been invested to support this vision. Though not in research. Respected professionals a majority yet, there is now a vocal investigating the same questions as group of residents, municipal officials participants in the Good Water Neigh- and mayors who see the cleaning up bors program have produced reports of the river and investment in the that calculate environmental and eco- valley as their best hope for a better nomic loss from the demise of the riv- future. Understanding the river and er, and its impact on nearby communi- its cross border meandering makes it ties. On this basis, an integrated master obvious that cooperation is not about plan was prepared with European doing a favor to the other side, but a Union financial support. The plan necessity, and a matter of self-in- estimates that a rehabilitated Jordan terest. It is therefore no coincidence River and Valley could reverse not only that the mayors of municipalities bor- the demise of the river but turn an area dering the Jordan River have demon- with much poverty – where pockets strated leadership, while national of up to 50% youth unemployment governments have started to respond prevail – into a space of prosperity and with some fresh water released back shared wealth. There is one critical to the river and some of the sewage condition, however: cooperation. removed. Though much more needs to be done, the act of the mayors who, The combination of ‘bottom up’ literally, got wet together, has come to community education and ‘top down’ symbolize hope in a region where not advocacy has created a constituency only water is scarce.
ECOPEACE MIDDLE EAST EcoPeace Middle East is a tri-lateral peacemaking organization that brings together Jordanian, Palestinian and Israeli environmentalists. Its primary objective is the promotion of cooperative efforts to protect a shared environmental heritage, while its ultimate goal is to both advance sustainable regional development and create the necessary conditions for lasting peace in the region. EcoPeace’s three co-direc- tors – Gidon Bromberg (Israel), Munqeth Mehyar (Jordan) and Nader Al-Khateeb (Palestine) – were honored by Time magazine as Environ- mental Heroes of 2008 and the organization has received a number of international awards, the Outstanding Leadership Award of the International Development Committee of the Association for Conflict Resolution, the Onassis Prize for the Protection of the Environment, and the prestigious Skoll Award.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 103 104 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.8. CITIES ARE KEY TO OUR SURVIVAL IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY
2.8. Cities are key to our survival in the twenty first century
Robert Muggah, Research Director, Igarapé Institute, Brazil Benjamin Barber, Distinguished Senior Fellow, Fordham School of Law Urban Consortium, USA
As nation states show signs of going rogue, could cities point the way to a more positive future? The Global Parliament of Mayors brings together representatives from around the world to work together on common priorities. In our increasingly complex global environment, such interconnected networks of cities could be the key forum to solve some of the world’s most pressing challenges.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 105 While some political leaders speak of throwing up walls, cities are busily getting connected with one another. In an interconnected globalized world, cities are the most interdependent of political entities.
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ities are not just the dominant While some political leaders speak form of social organization in of throwing up walls, cities are busily C the 21st century, they are the getting connected with one another. antidote to many of the planet’s most In an interconnected globalized intractable challenges. We are, after world, cities are the most interde- all, an urban species. More than half pendent of political entities. They the world’s population already lives are transactional, trade-oriented in a city, and cities generate four and open, and defined by physi- fifths of global GDP. There are a stag- cal, intellectual and digital bridges gering 2,100 cities with populations rather than borders. Bound together of 250,000 people or more, including by dense exchanges of ideas, capi- a growing number of mega-cities and tal and people, and facing common sprawling conurbations with at least challenges like climate change, 10 million residents. migration, inequality and terrorism, The widening clout of cities is city networks are the new normal. not just a result of demography and But if they are really going to economics. It is also fundamentally address some of the world’s trickiest about politics, including a revival of problems, city networks need to do democratic governance at the urban more than exchange ideas and best scale. And many cities are thriving practice. In order for glocal urban and driving positive change while governance to thrive, cities will need states fall into gridlock and disarray. to develop proactive partnerships As this year’s U.S. presidential race across national and international amply shows, even the world’s most frontiers. There are hundreds, even powerful nation states can become thousands, of fast-growing cities paralyzed by reactionary populism, in Africa, Asia and the Americas that polarization, and scandal. are literally and figuratively off the grid. Archetypal global cities like There are ominous signs of nation London, New York, Paris, and Tokyo states going rogue. Consider the cases are diverting our gaze from munici- of Austria, France, Hungary, palities across the global south that the Netherlands and Poland are struggling to keep up. where angry right-wing populist ad- ministrations are threatening to take Fast-expanding cities and shanty- charge. In Russia and the Philippines, towns in the developing world are the current regimes can be charac- precisely where virtually all future terized as strong-man autocracies. population growth is taking place. Against this grim backdrop, cities are Many of them are struggling to a promising alternative for fostering attract and retain investment and effective and pragmatic democratic talent, exhibit eye-watering rates of governance from the ground up. crime and violence, and suffer from
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 107 extreme inequality and concen- enough to achieve consensus with trated disadvantage. As successful at least 193 nation states, so how cities rewrite the social contract to will thousands of cities manage? enable global collective action and Part of the answer comes down to agency, fragile cities watch helpless- the intrinsically collaborative nature ly as their social contracts unravel. of cities. Nation states are indepen- dent, competitive and separated by One way to help ensure that territorial boundaries while cities metropolises of all size and status are interdependent, cooperative and benefit from the urban revolution increasingly forging positive win- is to build new modes of inter-city win partnerships. As Brexit and the and cross-border collaboration. populist movements in Europe show, Some cities are already aggressive- nation states are starting to look ly networking. Take the case of parochial; an increasing number of the United Cities and Local Gov- cities are cosmopolitan and univer- ernments (UCLG) that emerged sal in their values. after the First World War to facili- tate the exchange of research and What is urgently needed is a global best practices. There are dozens of governance body constructed pur- other city consortia including Me- posefully for and by cities, a Global tropolis and the C40 Climate Cities Parliament of Mayors. This is not a network which helped push for a theoretical construct – it is already climate agreement in Paris known as in motion. This past September, a COP21. group of more than 70 mayors and Even so, there is still no legiti- representatives from over two dozen mate and effective platform to foster inter-city networks gathered in The collective city action to address Hague to forge a compact. At the the world’s intractable problems. inaugural meeting cities as diverse If mayors are going to cut carbon as Buenos Aires, Cape Town, New emissions or come up with smarter Delhi and Paris addressed common ways to deal with migration they will priorities related to climate change, need to forge new ways of working immigration, governance and public together and co-designing solutions. security. Gathering data, sharing lessons and The future international land- reaching out to global institutions scape is marked with volatility is the first step. Just as important is and uncertainty. There is a seismic lobbying international institutions, re-ordering of international order setting rules to identify common underway that stretches from the priorities and delivering services and U.S. and Europe to South and East good governance to citizens. Asia. There are no simple solutions Critics will say that it’s hard and many potential flash points. But
108 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.8. CITIES ARE KEY TO OUR SURVIVAL IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY
the truth is that the road to demo- residents are already rolling-up their cracy, sustainability and stability sleeves to get things done. Now is runs not through nation states, but the time to empower mayors to take cities. Rather than standing still, city these efforts on a global scale.
ROBERT MUGGAH BENJAMIN R. BARBER Robert Muggah is a political scientist and devel- Benjamin R. Barber is the first Distinguished Se- opment economist who focuses on security and nior Fellow at the Fordham School of Law’s Urban development. He co-founded the Igarapé Insti- Consortium and the President and Founder of the tute where he oversees research and technology Interdependence Movement. He also founded the development in Latin America and Africa. He also Global Parliament of Mayors. Benjamin Barber’s oversees research at the SecDev Foundation, a 18 books include the 2014 If Mayors Ruled the cyber analytics group that focuses on Europe, Asia World; Strong Democracy and Jihad vs. McWorld. and the Middle East. He has spent the past two He is completing Cool Cities: The Urban Fix for decades working in conflict- and crime-affected Warming World, which will appear at the begin- settings, including as the research director of the ning of 2017. Barber’s honors include a knight- Small Arms Survey (2000-2011) and advisor to hood (Palmes Academiques/Chevalier) from the the UN, World Bank and several governments. In French Government (2001), the Berlin Prize of the addition to advising the Global Parliament of May- American Academy in Berlin (2001) and the John ors, Robert is a fellow at the University of Oxford, Dewey Award (2003). He has also been awarded the University of San Diego, as well as the Grad- Guggenheim, Fulbright, and Social Science Re- uate Institute of International and Development search Fellowships, honorary doctorates from Studies in Geneva. In 2013 he was named one Grinnell College, Monmouth University and Con- of the to 100 most influential people working on necticut College, and has held the chair of Ameri- violence. In 2014, 2014 and 2016 he gave talks at can Civilization at the École des Hautes Études en TED and Davos. He was also recently nominated Sciences Sociales in Paris. He received his MA and by the UN Secretary General to support a global Doctorate from Harvard University. review of youth and violence. His books, articles and award-winning data visualizations have been featured by BBC, CNN, Financial Times, New York Times, Wired and hundreds of other outlets. He received his Doctorate at Oxford University.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 109 110 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.9. BITNATION PANGEA: THE WORLD’S FIRST VIRTUAL NATION – A BLOCKCHAIN JURISDICTION
2.9. BITNATION Pangea: the world’s first virtual nation – a blockchain jurisdiction
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof, Founder/CEO, BITNATION James Fennell Tempelhof, Operations Manager, BITNATION
Could new technologies offer governance alternatives to the Westphalian Nation State? This is the model proposed by BITNATION Pangea, the world’s first virtual nation, where contracts are negotiated and enforced through secure blockchain technology.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 111 Thanks to the Blockchain technology, we have the chance to not only re-invent governance, but fundamentally replace the Nation State.
112 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 2.9. BITNATION PANGEA: THE WORLD’S FIRST VIRTUAL NATION – A BLOCKCHAIN JURISDICTION
ur current governance interactions become digital, various model – the Westphalian national systems of security and O Nation State – has created a jurisdiction are beginning to merge. geographical apartheid from which Our trajectories are becoming at once billions are unable to escape20. more local and more global, leaving the nation state behind: a beached Since the development of techno- whale stranded between tidelines. As logies for accurate map making in maps created the technology for the the late 16th Century21, governance development of Nation States, the has been defined by the centralised, rapid development of the Blockchain, territorial and – arguably – coercive and in particular Smart Contract Nation State model. Born at the Peace technologies, is opening new hori- of Westphalia in 1648, Governance zons in the ‘glocal’ space. Smart 1.0 provides security and administers contracts are computer protocols that jurisdiction across defined territories. facilitate, verify, or enforce the nego- Over the following centuries, this tiation or performance of a contract, model has spread from Europe over or that make a contractual clause un- the rest of the world, and now encom- necessary. These technologies create passes the whole globe (apart from the potential for peer-to-peer online the uninhabitable continent of Ant- governance modalities that will even- arctica). Residents of territories gov- tually out-compete the increasingly erned according to this model have redundant Nation State. no option but to accept the national interpretation of security and juris- Why is this the case? Right now, one diction, whether or not it works in way to think of political organization their interests. If your Nation State is that we consent to give our personal rejects your identity or lifestyle – if sovereignty to Nation States – and you are gay in Uganda or Muslim in multilateral organizations such as the Myanmar, for example – there are few UN and EU – on the understanding ways to exit your geographical loca- that only their judicial, legal and law tion and choose a governance service enforcement institutions can effec- provider that meets your needs. tively protect our lives and property. Yet in the 21st Century, for many But Nation States and Multilateral people on the planet, these broad organizations cut a hard bargain in territorial distinctions have become return for security and jurisdiction, much less important to both social and, like any extortion racket, make and economic existence, and the unreasonable demands on our lives territorial governance model is in- and property in return for protection. creasingly irrelevant to the way many They may insist that we risk our lives of us lead our lives. Through global- in war, submit to the monitoring ization, as more of our property and of our personal communications
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 113 or give up large proportions of our functionality – including an escrow earnings for services that we neither account embedded in the system, al- use or desire. Mass democracy, many lowing a third party to hold title to the argue, has made Nation States more assets in question while the dispute is accountable to people – and yet it is settled – made according to the code a very crude instrument, which (to of law and the arbitration method paraphrase Socrates) is at worst mob that we have chosen to settle the rule and at best gives the majority a dispute. And what if all of that could limited choice over which one-size- be done in less than two minutes for fits-all policies they are to be subject- minimal cost from the comfort of a ed to for the next four or five years. mobile phone? This is the vision of BITNATION Pangea. So how can we build a governance model that reflects current social and BITNATION Pangea will provide economic reality? Imagine if we could functionality in core areas required make and enforce contracts without to provide an effective jurisdiction, recourse to Nation State intermediar- so that it can outcompete those ies who may use that power to limit provided by Nation States: our choices and place unreasonable demands on our time and resources? • Code of Law Thanks to the Blockchain techno- • You can choose an existing code logy, we have the chance to not only of law (e.g. Common Law, Sharia re-invent governance, but fundamen- Law or the Civil Code), or upload tally replace the Nation State. This a different code of law. new model was first fully articulated by Tarkowski Tempelhof in the BIT- • Arbitration NATION Whitepaper of 2014, under • You choose Arbitrator(s). the name Decentralized Borderless • You can choose a crowd Jury. Voluntary Nation (DBVN). • Enforcement So how would this work practi- • The system includes Multisig cally? Let’s imagine an alternative Escrow – a third party account governance universe in which we – to hold mutual assets (money, could solve a dispute about an asset tokenized land titles, car titles, through a smartphone chat – cutting etc). out the high costs, time inefficiencies • A reputation system serves as an and potential coercion and arbitrari- incentive for contract compli- ness of Nation State legal, judicial ance. and law enforcement processes. • Physical enforcement happens What if a certain emoticon called through private security. upon a Blockchain Smart Contract
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This is why we believe that BIT- Nation-State governance, and herald NATION Pangea – the world’s first the dawn of a new renaissance – an Blockchain Jurisdiction – will provide era of discovery, opportunity and the core functionalities required to radical abundance for the territorially escape the redundant confines of oppressed.
SUSANNE TARKOWSKI JAMES FENNELL TEMPELHOF TEMPELHOF James Fennell Tempelhof is Operations Manager Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof is Founder and of Bitnation, and leads the Bitnation refugee and CEO of Bitnation. Bitnation is the world’s first security programs. He has a broad experience Cryptonation, a blockchain powered Governance as a consultant and project manager providing 2.0 Operating System. Bitnation is designed to innovative analysis and solutions to conflict and disrupt the nation state oligopoly through offer- security issues, with a significant track records ing more convenient, secure and cost-efficient providing security advice and operational support governance services. Susanne previously worked in challenging environments across the Middle as a contractor doing research in various frontier East, Africa, Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. and emerging markets on politics, culture, and governance.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 115 PART 3 – LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
Part 3 Looking to the future
116 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 117 118 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 3.1. PLANETARY STEWARDSHIP IN THE ANTHROPOCENE
3.1. Planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene
Johan Rockström, executive director, Stockholm Resilience Centre
As human impact on the planet’s environment reaches unprecedented scale, what leverage points exist for transformative change in the way we collectively govern our world? Four directions deserve particular attention: support for new legal norms, changes in the UNEP mandate, supporting innovations with positive environmental impact, and securing popular endorsement.
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 119 120 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 3.1. PLANETARY STEWARDSHIP IN THE ANTHROPOCENE
he human enterprise’s in- In this context, it is easy to focus fluence on the Earth system on the severe political and economic T calls not only for an increased obstacles that hinder the emergence understanding of emerging global of models of global governance able risks and transformation pathways, to tackle the multiple social, polit- but also a serious reconsideration of ical and environmental challenges the ways we, as a global community, posed by a connected planet under govern ourselves. pressure. However, we also know that Global governance and global insti- there are several potential leverage tutions are of extreme importance at points for transformative change in a time when decision-makers, the way we currently manage our business leaders, citizens and global affairs. These include: non-governmental organizations try to navigate a turbulent future. As the • the support of new legal norms literature in the social sciences has that put “planetary boundaries” or shown, these actors are guided by a a safe and just operating space for complex set of international norms humanity at the center of inter- and rules. What is worrying, how- national policy discussions ever, is the fact that current models of • an upgrade of the United Nations global governance are clearly not up Environment Programme (UNEP) to the challenges created by the An- into a strong international organi- thropocene era – the current period zation with a mandate to coordi- of history defined by unprecedented nate international rules in ways influence of human action on the that support a transition to global natural environment. sustainability • a strong commitment by govern- In a period of increasing interde- ments, private actors and the inter- pendence and complexity, global national community to experiment governance remains fragmented, with, evaluate and upscale innova- hampered by loud national interests, tions that have a positive impact and unable to address global risks on the biosphere, or expand a safe that present non-linear dynamics and just operating space and repercussions. Current global • a recognition that transformative governance models also systemati- change requires engagement and cally ignore the fundamental role that mobilization “from below”, which the biosphere plays for economic and requires that global initiatives for human development in all parts of sustainability be endorsed by the the world. population. Hence, beside being
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 121 It is easy to focus on the severe obstacles that hinder the emergence of global governance models able to tackle challenges posed by a connected planet under pressure. However, we also know that there are several potential leverage points for transformative change.
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effective, reforms in governance This list is by no means exhaustive, need to be viewed as legitimate by but as we face the prospect of a tur- the general public. For this, they bulent future, it provides important must meet three criteria: transpar- first steps towards a much needed ency, participation and account- transformation in the way we govern ability. ourselves and our biosphere.
JOHAN ROCKSTRÖM Johan Rockström is an internationally recognized scientist working on global sustainability issues, professor of envrionmental economics at Stockholm University and executive director of the Stockholm Resil- ience Centre. Johann Rockström is currently vice-chair of the science advisory board of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and a member of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), as well as a member of several other com- mittees and boards. He acts as an advisor to several governments, business networks and international meetings, including the United Nations General Assemblies, World Economic Forums, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conferences (UN- FCCC, also known as COP).
Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 123 124 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 CONTINUING THE CONVERSATION
Continuing the conversation
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Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 125 126 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report August 2016 ENDNOTES
Endnotes
1. We The Peoples. The Role of the United Nations in mobilization and progressive Policy Change: Why the 21st Century. Millennium Report of the Secretary- governments take action to combat violence against General. United Nations 2000. women’, in Gender and Development, Vol 21 (2). 2. Eric Hand, ”CFC bans pay off as Antarctic ozone layer 12. Valerie Hudson Hudson, Mary Caprioli, Bonnie Ballif- starts to mend, Science 01 Jul 2016: Vol. 353, Issue Spanvill, Rose McDermott, Chad F. Emmett. 2009. “The 6294, pp. 16-17 Heart of the Matter: The Security of Women and the 3. Steinar Andresen, ”International Whaling Commission”, Security of States”. International Security, Vol. 33, No. in Essential Concepts of Global Environmental 3. pp. 7-45. Governance, by Jean-Frédéric Morin and Amandine 13. Cynthia Enloe, 2004, The Curious Feminist: Searching Orsini (eds.), Routledge 2014. for Women in the New Age of Empire, University of 4. Johan Rockström of the Stockholm Resilience Centre California Press, page 215. and Will Steffen of Australian National University have 14. Pablo Castillo-Diaz, 2016, ‘Hisland’, Open Democracy, led a team of environmental scientists who, in 2009, https://www.opendemocracy.net/5050/pablo- proposed the framework of planetary boundaries. castillo-diaz/us-this-land-is-hisland 5. The four boundaries include climate change, land- 15. Katherine Storr, 2009, Excluded from the Record: system change, loss of biosphere integrity, and altered Women, Refugees and Relief, 1914-1929, Peter Lang, biogeochemical cycles (Steffen et al. 2015). Berlin, page 170. 6. Steffen et al. 2015. 16. Inter-Parliamentary Union, 2016, Women in National 7. Brown-Weiss & Jacobson, 1998; Mitchell, 2003, 2013. Parliaments, http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/classif.htm 8. In phase 1, we have analyzed the CITES-Convention 17. Karin Landgren, 2015, ‘The Lost Agenda: gender Parity on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild in Senior UN Appointments’, Global Peace Operations Fauna and Flora, the CMS-Convention on Migratory Review, Center for International Cooperation, New York Species, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of University, New York http://peaceoperationsreview. International Importance, especially as Waterfowl org/commentary/the-lost-agenda-gender-parity-in- Habitat, the Basel Convention on the Control of senior-un-appointments/ Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes 18. Anne Marie Goetz and Joanne Sandler, 2015, and their Disposal, the Stockholm Convention on ‘Debating a 5th World Conference on Women: Persistent Organic Pollutants, and the World Heritage Defiance or Defeatism?’, in Open Democracy, Convention. Phase 2 will include the CBD-Convention https://www.opendemocracy.net/5050/ on Biological Diversity, the UNCCD-UN Convention to anne-marie-goetz-joanne-sandler/debating-5th-world- Combat Desert¬ification, the UNFCCC-UN Framework conference-on-women-defiance-or-defeatism Convention on Climate Change, and the Vienna 19. ‘Campaign to Elect a Woman UN Secretary-General’, Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. http://www.womansg.org/ 9. Support for this project is provided by Carnegie 20. 80% of the world’s population live and work in frontier Corporation of New York, through the Andrew or transitional economies, 2 billiion are unbanked and Carnegie Fellows Program, by the Federal Office of the most are at least to some extent dependent upon the Environment of Switzerland, and by the University of $10 trillion informal ‘system D’ economy. Massachusetts Boston. 21. The Mercator projection was presented by the Flemish 10. Rukmini Calimachi, 2015, ‘ISIS enshrines a theology geographer and cartographer Gerardus Mercator of rape’, New York Times, http://www.nytimes. in 1569. It became the standard map projection for com/2015/08/14/world/middleeast/isis-enshrines-a- nautical purposes because of its ability to represent theology-of-rape.html lines of constant course. 11. Mala Htun and Laurel S. Weldon, 2014, ‘Feminist
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