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Remodelling Global Cooperation

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Remodelling Global Cooperation Global Challenges Foundation Remodelling global cooperation Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report GLOBAL CHALLENGES QUARTERLY RISK REPORT – REMODELLING GLOBAL COOPERATION The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. Team Project leader: Carin Ism Editor-in-chief: Julien Leyre Art director: Elinor Hägg Project assistant: Elizabeth Ng Contributors Anne Marie Goetz Malini Mehra Professor, Center for Global Affairs, School Chief Executive, GLOBE International, UK of Professional Studies, New York University, USA Maria Ivanova Associate Professor of Global Governance Atangcho Nji Akonumbo and Director, Center for Governance and Associate Professor of Law, University of Sustainability, University of Massachusetts Yaoundé II/University of Bamenda, Cameroon Boston, USA Benjamin Barber Nader Khateeb Distinguished senior fellow, Fordham School Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Palestine of Law Urban Consortium, USA Sir Martin Rees David Held Emeritus Professor of Cosmology and Astro- Professor of Politics and International Rela- physics, Cambridge University, UK tions, Durham University, UK Munqeth Mehyar Folke Tersman Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Jordan Chair Professor of Practical Philosophy, Up- psala University, Sweden Pang Zhongying Professor, Centre for the Study of Global Gov- Gidon Bromberg ernance, School of International Studies, Ren- Co-director, EcoPeace Middle East, Israel min University, China Ian Manners Robert Muggah Professor, Department of Political Science, Research director, Igarapé Institute, Brazil University of Copenhagen, Denmark Sachin Joshi James Fennell Tempelhof Director, Confederation of Indian Industry Operations Manager, BITNATION (CII-ITC) Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development, India Johan Rockström Executive director, Stockholm Resilience Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof Centre, Sweden Founder/CEO, BITNATION Magnus Jiborn Researcher, Lund School of Economics, Sweden 2 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to incite deeper under- standing of the global risks that threaten humanity and catalyse ideas to tackle them. Rooted in a scientific analysis of risk, the Foundation brings together the brightest minds from academia, politics, business and civil society to forge transformative approaches to secure a better future for all. Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 3 4 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 Contents Foreword 6 Preface 8 Executive Summary 10 Part 1. Making sense of the present 16 1.1 A long-term perspective on global catastrophic risk – Sir Martin Rees 18 1.2 From multilateralism to gridlock and beyond – David Held 24 1.3 The current shape of global governance – a look inside the UN structure – Magnus Jiborn/Folke Tersman 34 1.4 Global environmental goals: What works, what doesn’t and why? – Maria Ivanova 44 Part 2. Emerging Trends 52 2.1 Governance for sustainable development – courts as the new game-changers – Malini Mehra 54 2.2 Privatization of global governance – Sachin Joshi 60 2.3 Gender equality in global governance: not an optional extra – Anne Marie Goetz 68 2.4 China’s role in global governance – Pang Zhongying 76 2.5 Perspectives on the African single passport – Atangcho Nji Akonumbo 82 2.6 From the regional to the global: better achieve together what cannot be achieved apart – Ian Manners 92 2.7 The ‘Big Jump into the Jordan’ – putting water before conflict – Gidon Bromberg/Nader Khateeb/Munqeth Mehyar 98 2.8 Cities are key to our survival in the twenty first century – Robert Muggah/Benjamin Barber 104 2.9 BITNATION Pangea: the world’s first virtual nation – a blockchain jurisdiction – Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof/ James Fennell Tempelhof 110 Part 3. Looking to the future 116 3.1 Planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene – Johan Rockström 118 Continuing the conversation 124 Endnotes 126 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 5 6 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 FOREWORD Foreword n the after- When I founded math of the US the Global Challenges elections, there Foundation in 2012, I can be no more did so because I wanted relevant time to deepen insights into Ito examine whether the urgent global risks our current systems of we face. I also wanted global cooperation are to help to spark a con- fit for purpose. That is, versation about how are they designed to these threats could be effectively tackle the better handled. That is most pressing threats to the intention of this re- humanity: catastrophic port. We have gathered climate change, other environmental perspectives from around the world ruin, various weapons of mass de- and across disciplines in an attempt struction and global pandemics? to catalyse discussion around poten- The current political drumbeat tial new pathways. against globalization and in favour of nationalism is deeply dangerous at a Of this I am certain: bold thinking time when we face global risks that and urgent action are needed in are unprecedented in their scale and order to address the interlinked and complexity. These threats transcend mutually reinforcing mega risks we national borders and can affect face. These risks cannot be solved at anyone anywhere on the planet. In an the national level: the time has come interconnected and interdependent to re-envision, to re-model our sys- world the international community tem of global governance. Our planet has outrun its ability to deal with – and the very future of human life them. on it – depends upon it. Einstein pointed out, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” It follows there is no logical reason why a system of international bodies and agreements that has evolved over the 70 years since the Second World War should be suitable Laszlo Szombatfalvy for governing the crises we face today. Founder of Global Challenges Foundation Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 7 8 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 PREFACE Preface n the 20th Cen- divisions to present a tury, human be- range of viewpoints, ings solved some from men and women of the toughest spanning the fields of challenges of political thought, as- Iour history. We erad- tronomy, international icated smallpox. We law, technology and dramatically decreased environmentalism. It the numbers of chil- includes perspectives dren dying before their from Africa, China fifth birthdays. We and South America as stabilized the hole in well as Europe and the the ozone layer. United States. Human inventiveness has trig- gered an explosion of technological This report is not a blueprint for and scientific advances that have how to organize the world; rather improved living standards for bil- it is a thought prompt, a set of key lions. But these advances have also questions with some ideas advanced created the greatest risks we face for how they might be approached. It today including climate change and is presented with the hope of stim- weapons of mass destruction. ulating conversation on this most At the Global Challenges Founda- urgent topic. For it is only by hold- tion, we believe that human inge- ing truly global conversations that nuity can, if properly channelled, we can shape the global solutions play a role in averting humanity’s needed. greatest challenges. If we can tap this creativity and apply it to the task of re-designing how the world commu- nity organizes and takes decisions, then we will have a greater chance of avoiding the worst risks we face. That is why we need an intensive Mats Andersson global conversation about global Vice-chairman, governance that straddles disci- Global Challenges Foundation plines, sectors and regions. Too Former CEO, Fourth Swedish often, experts work in their silos. This National Pension Fund, co-founder report attempts to break down these Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 9 10 Global Challenges Quarterly Risk Report 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summary Julien Leyre, Global Challenges Foundation, Melbourne, Australia. his report brings to- The second contributor, David Held gether a set of diverse from Durham University, examines perspectives on global the state of gridlock into which our governance from inde- international institutions have fallen pendent thinkers. It does in ‘From multilateralism to gridlock Tnot attempt to lay out a prescriptive and beyond’. Developed after the path as to how global decision-mak- traumas of the Second World War, ing should be organised, but rather, it current institutions have enabled the aims to stimulate reflection and invite globalised world that we know today, the reader to explore new directions. but they are increasingly unable to tackle the greatest problems of our Four initial pieces set the scene, time. David Held attributes this to situating the main challenges that rising multi-polarity, institutional the world now faces in a broader inertia, tougher problems and institu- historical perspective. We open with a tional fragmentation. Humanity now contribution from Cambridge astro- faces a crossroads, and could head physicist Sir Martin Rees who takes either towards authoritarianism, or what might be called ‘the long view’. a ‘brighter cosmopolitanism’. This In ‘A long-term perspective on global second and more hopeful perspec- catastrophic risk’, he considers the 45 tive would entail embracing a new million century life span of the Earth,
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