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Determining Bank Performance in Emerging Markets: the Case of Jordan Competition, Portfolio Behaviour, and Efficiency

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Determining Bank Performance in Emerging Markets: the Case of Jordan Competition, Portfolio Behaviour, and Efficiency DETERMINING BANK PERFORMANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF JORDAN COMPETITION, PORTFOLIO BEHAVIOUR, AND EFFICIENCY By MOHAMMED ABDULLAH KHATAYBEH A Thesis Submitted to The University of Birmingham For the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY University of Birmingham Collage of Social Sciences Birmingham Business School Department of Economics January 2013 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. DEDICATION To; Professor Jim L. Ford, ACKNOWLEDEMENT First and foremost, I would like to thank Allah the Almighty, the Most Beneficent the most merciful for giving me the courage, support, and guidance to complete this thesis. Prayers and peace be upon His prophet Muhammad. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Nick Horsewood, whose excellence in supervision and devotion to research has inspired my work and whose kindness and patience has encouraged my research efforts. I confirm here that his continuous assistance, supervision, encouragement, comments, suggestions and constructive criticism throughout this study enabled me to complete this thesis. I would also like to thank Professor Jim Ford to whom I am eternally grateful for his supervision during the first two years of my PhD, who has contributed immensely towards this piece of research. I also want to thank Professor Somnath Sen for his immense support and guidance throughout the formulation of this thesis. A special thanks also to all staff members at the department of Economics; Emma, Jackie, and Lisa. I would like dedicate this Ph.D. thesis to my parents. They have been a pillar of support throughout my life and without their patience and commitment; none of this would have been possible. Finally, I would like to thank my brothers and sisters, Ghada, Ahmad, Reem, Ibrahim, Heba, Abeer, and my lovely little princess Alia, for their patience, sacrifice and love throughout my graduate studies. ABSTRACT This study attempts to explain the banking performance in Jordan to draw out the implications of related theories and evidence for policy makers. Accordingly, they can influence the banking industry, which, in turn, impacts the economy overall. First, we investigate bank performance and the likely impact of market structures on such performance. The way in which market structure has an emotional impact on banks’ performance is vital for the reason that one objective of bank regulation is to ensure market competitiveness. Chapter three seek to examine two competing hypotheses, the SCP and the Efficient Market, for the Jordanian banking market using an unbalanced panel data set over the period 1991 to 2009. The results obtained support the SCP hypothesis as an explanation for market performance in Jordan. In chapter four we investigate the portfolio behaviour of Jordanian banks during 2002 to 2009 using monthly data. The model used is based on the portfolio choice theory, originated by Hicks (1935) and developed by Markowitz (1952) and Tobin (1958). Several nested models are developed to test the theoretical restrictions, including symmetry and homogeneity of the interest rate matrix. The empirical results, in general, clearly do not provide any support for interest rates which are important in determining the general composition of the portfolio holdings of Jordanian banks. The results show, however, that availability of funds is more important in determining the structure of these portfolios. In chapter five, the last empirical study, we examine the influence of efficiency estimates, which are derived from the Data Envelopment Analysis, on stock prices of listed banks in the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). We test whether changes in banks’ efficiency scores have helped to explain the change in banks’ stock prices. The overall findings suggest that the share prices of Jordanian banks move according to the representative changes under the technical efficiency variables in the three presented panels. CONTENTS TABLE OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ V TABLE OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... VII CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 1.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 1 1.3. AIMS AND MOTIVATIONS ................................................................................................. 3 1.4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 5 1.5. OUTLINE OF THE THESIS ................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2 : JORDAN PROFILE ..................................................................................... 8 2.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 8 2.2. JORDAN ECONOMY ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2. 1. Banking Industry.................................................................................................... 16 2.2.1.1. Trends in Main Indicators of Banking Development ...................................... 20 2.3. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS IN BANKING ................................................................... 22 2.3. 1. Sources of Funds ................................................................................................... 24 2.3.1.1. Capital and Reserves ........................................................................................ 24 2.3.1.2. Deposits: .......................................................................................................... 26 2.3. 2. Uses of Fund .......................................................................................................... 29 2.3.2.1. Cash and Balances with Other Banks: ............................................................. 29 2.3.2.2. Security Investments ........................................................................................ 32 2.3.2.3. Loans: ............................................................................................................... 33 2.4. BANKING PROFITABILITY ............................................................................................... 39 2.4. 1. The Need for Adequate Profits .............................................................................. 39 2.4. 2. Measurement of Bank Profits ................................................................................ 40 2.4.2.1. Return on Assets .............................................................................................. 40 2.4.2.2. Return on Equity .............................................................................................. 41 2.4.2.3. Trends in Profitability in the Jordanian Banking market over the period 1991- 2009............................................................................................................................... 41 2.5. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 47 -I- CHAPTER 3 : THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET CONCENTRATION AND PROFITABILITY IN BANKING ............................................................................ 49 3.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 49 3.2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ......................................................................................... 49 3.2. 1. Market Efficiency Paradigm .................................................................................. 59 3.2. 2. Banking Market Concentration ............................................................................. 60 3.2. 3. Measures of Performance ...................................................................................... 62 3.3. REVIEWS OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES ................................................................................... 62 3.4. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ................................................................................................. 71 3.4. 1. Concentration in Jordanian banking ..................................................................... 71 3.4. 2. Data and Methodology .......................................................................................... 72 3.4.2.1. Sample and Variables Selections ..................................................................... 73 3.4.2.2. Methodology ...................................................................................................
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