Recent Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Al Jabal Al Akhdar
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CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library ence ci & C S l h im rt a a t E i c Al-Kalbani et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2015, 6:8 f o C l h a a n n http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000295 r g u e o J Earth Science & Climatic Change ISSN: 2157-7617 Research Article Article OpenOpen Access Access Recent Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman, and the Implications for Future Climate Change Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani1*, John C2 and Martin FP1 1Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College, University of the Highlands and Islands, and University of Aberdeen, UK 2Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Co Kildare, Ireland Abstract This article presents an analysis of recent trends and changes in temperature and precipitation for Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman; the first such analysis in this region. The objective is to assess the extent of observed climate change in this mountainous region over the last three decades using statistical tools, as well as providing a synthesis of future regional projections of climate change from global climate models (GCMs). A clear picture of climate change in the observed record is presented, with statistically significant increases in mean (+0.27°C/decade) and minimum (+0.79°C/decade) temperature coincident with a general decrease in precipitation (-9.42 mm/decade) from the 1979-2012 record. Climate change projections from various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario families across a range of different models and time slices indicate a general increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation over the present century. More climate change impact assessments are required to further assess the implications for environment and natural resources, especially water systems. This will better support policy- and decision-makers in evaluating and modifying existing policies in order to develop long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Keywords: Al Jabal Al Akhdar; Climate change; Extremes; climate change studies have been conducted. In part, this is because the Mountains; Oman; Trends region encompasses a diverse range of countries, and data quality and availability is variable [13]. A regional analysis of changes in climate Introduction extremes for the Middle East region indicates consistent changes, with a shift to more warm and less cold extremes and strong inter-annual Analysis of observed climate data for a region bolsters assessments variability in precipitation, with no significant trend [14]. Another study of future impacts associated with projected changes in climate [1] for the Middle East and North Africa found considerable variability and variations in rainfall and temperature are key measures of a in recent observations of atmospheric temperature and precipitation. changing climate for any region. In their assessment report, Field et However, when variability is filtered out and the underlying trend al. [2] concluded that “it is likely that anthropogenic influences have extrapolated, there is a general agreement between IPCC projections contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation at the global scale”. and estimates from statistical analyses [15]. Other studies on climate The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on extremes have been undertaken in countries around the Arabian Climate Change concluded that climate change impacts are projected Peninsula (AP) such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, to raise global average surface temperatures by 2.6-4.8°C by 2100 [3]. United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Al Sarmi and Washington [16,17] Such projected changes will have major impacts on the functioning of and Al Mazroui et al. [18-20] all report warming trends in most of the world’s ecosystems, and the services they provide including human the meteorological station data analyzed. The region has already society and natural systems [4,5]. The AR5 highlighted that, combined experienced an increase in extreme events such as warm spells, droughts, with increasing food demand, global temperature increases of 4°C or flash floods and storm surges [16]; projections indicate that, in the more would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally; future, annual rainfall may decrease, and the frequency and intensity and if temperatures increase by 3°C or more, agricultural adaptive of extreme events are likely to increase [3]. Recent work by Al Sarmi capacity could be exceeded in regions closest to the equator [3]. and Washington [17] indicates trends of less severe cold temperature Studies on the world’s mountains have emphasized the sensitivity extremes and increasing warm temperature extremes from 1970-2008, of mountain ecosystems to climate change, particularly for range- and that precipitation trends were weak and insignificant; exceptions restricted species with limited dispersal abilities [6-8]. Climate change were for the annual count of days when precipitation exceeds 10 mm, will also have increasingly net negative impacts on freshwater systems which showed a significant decrease from 1986-2008. Al Mazroui et al. globally; by 2050, the area of land subject to increasing water stress due to climate change is projected to be more than twice that with decreasing water stress [9]. Higher water temperatures and changes in *Corresponding author: Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani, Centre for Mountain extremes, such as droughts, are projected to affect water quality and Studies, Perth College, University of the Highlands and Islands, and University exacerbate many forms of water pollution, and thus to affect food of Aberdeen, UK, Tel: 0845 2701177; E-mail: [email protected] availability, stability, access and utilization, especially in arid and semi- Received July 21, 2015; Accepted August 25, 2015; Published september 05, 2015 arid areas [10]. Results also indicate that more people will experience increased water scarcity under climate change [11]. Rockstrom et al. Citation: Al-Kalbani MS, John C, Martin FP (2015) Recent Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman, and the Implications [12] indicate that, associated with a global mean temperature increase for Future Climate Change. J Earth Sci Clim Change. 6: 295. doi:10.4172/2157- of ~2°C, around 59% of the world’s population would be exposed to 7617.1000295 “blue water shortage” (i.e. irrigation water shortage). Despite the aridity Copyright: © 2015 Al-Kalbani MS, et al. This is an open-access article distributed and hence potential vulnerability of the Arab region, which extends under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits from the Maghreb in Northwest Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, few unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. J Earth Sci Clim Change ISSN:2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal Volume 6 • Issue 8 • 1000295 Citation: Al-Kalbani MS, John C, Martin FP (2015) Recent Trends in Temperature and Precipitation in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman, and the Implications for Future Climate Change. J Earth Sci Clim Change. 6: 295. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000295 Page 2 of 9 [20] showed that warming during the dry season (June to September) in the western Hajar Mountains of the Sultanate of Oman (Figure is faster than warming during the wet season (November to April); and 1). Elevations range from 1500 to 3075 m a.s.l. at Jabal Shams; the that the wet season temperature is highest over the western parts of the Mediterranean climate and agricultural terraces enable the production AP. They also found that available gridded datasets detect the dry zone of perennial fruits, especially pomegranate as well as date palm (grown over the world’s largest sand desert, Rub Al-Khali (Empty Quarter), at lower altitudes) and roses, and these are the primary source of income during the wet season and the existing distribution of seasonal rain belts for local farmers [28]. The area also has a wide range of native habitats Available gridded datasets for Saudi Arabia also accurately represent and flora and fauna that are not found elsewhere in Oman [29]. Average the very dry (40-80 mm) area over the Rub Al Khali, and the dry (80- annual temperatures are 10-12°C lower than on the coastal plains. 150 mm) area over the middle to north of Saudi Arabia, and the wettest Mean monthly temperatures drop during winter to below 0°C and rise (>150 mm) region in the southwest of the AP [20]. For the Sultanate in summer to around ~22°C [30]. This cool climate and the availability of Oman in the south-eastern corner of the AP, no in-depth analysis of agricultural terraces have made Al Jabal Al Akhdar a place of special of changes of temperature and precipitation study has been done at significance for the Omani people and an important tourist attraction. the national or sub-national scale. However, some reports indicate that There are two distinct rainfall seasons: the winter season from mid- the country is likely to suffer from problems such as: increased aridity November through March, and the summer season from mid-June and soil salinity; recurrent drought and water scarcity due to higher through mid-September. In winter, the prevailing air mass flow is from average temperatures; less and more erratic precipitation; sea level rise; the north, with generally low moisture content. This general situation and desertification [21,22]. Analysis of rainfall data for 1977-2003 for is occasionally interrupted by short-lived synoptic conditions when various regions in Oman showed that days with light rainfall (<10 mm cyclonic fronts bring several days of widespread rainfall. Thus, seasonal per day) dominate, accounting for 66-95% of rainfall; rain in excess of 50 total receipts fluctuate depending upon the frequency and intensity of mm per day is rare.