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Preface Prologue Notes P reface 1 . T i m o t h y C h e e k , Mao Zedong and China’s Revolutions (Boston: Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2002). 2 . The Swiss National Bank stepped into the markets in September 2011 when it pegged the franc at 1.20 to the euro. 3. Which anyway cannot be used in the US jurisdiction because they are inad- missible under the Dodd-Frank Act. 4 . D. N. Chorafas, Risk Pricing (London: Harriman House, 2010). 5 . Simon Sebag Montefiore, Staline (Paris: Editions des Syrtes, 2005). 6 . By contrast, identification is made when opinions have been already quoted by the financial media. P rologue 1 . First attested in English 1382, the word allegory comes from the Greek ἀλληγορία ( allegoria ), “veiled language, figurative,” from ἄλλος (allos ), “another, different,”and ἀγορεύω ( agorevo ), “to speak in the assembly” and that from ἀγορά (agora ), “assembly.” 2 . The Fed’s Open Market Committee. 3 . Michael Woodford, “Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest- Rates Lower Bond,” lecture, Columbia University, August 2012. 4 . Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. 5 . D e u t s c h e B u n d e s b a n k , Financial Stability Review , 2012, Frankfurt, November 12, 2012. 6 . William R. White, “Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences,” Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper No. 126, 2012. 7 . George Paloczi-Horvath, Mao Ts é -Toung (Paris: Gallimard, 1963). 8 . Like Mario Draghi, another Goldman Sachs investment banker, and now boss of the European Central Bank. 9 . Financial Times , December 19, 2012. 258 NOTES 10 . Relative to real assets the central bank has in its possession to back up and honor its legal tender. For instance, gold. Short of this, what it prints is good for wallpaper. 1 1 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Breaking Up the Euro: The End of a Common Currency (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2013). 1 2 . Financial Times , December 15–16, 2012. 1 3 . I b i d . 14. On December 19, 2012, it was announced that New York-based Third Point hedge fund, headed by Daniel Loeb, a young billionaire, made a profit of $500 million on Greek debt. It scooped holdings for just 17 cents on the euro and sold them at 34 cents—doubling its risk capital. Paul Paulson’s hedge fund, on the other hand, which had made a kill in 2007 with the subprimes, lost 60 percent of its clients’ money. 1 5 . Financial Times , December 15–16, 2012. 16 . CNBC, December 12, 2012. 1 7 . Financial Times , January 11, 2013. 18 . See chapter 6 . 19 . In a way this resembles QE in which the Fed prints money to buy Treasury bonds, but a single trillion dollars coin, which could be lost down the drain, is even more “sophisticated.” Thanks for thinking of it. 20 . The pros say that this is not so. The central bank will target both inflation and full employment , but if central bankers go after two incompatible goals they will reach neither. 2 1 . W i l l i a m G r e i d e r , Secrets of the Temple (New York: Touchstone/Simon & Schuster, 1989). 22 . Revision frequency depends on policies prevailing in different jurisdictions. 2 3 . Financial Times , January 2, 2013. 24 . Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds . Originally published in the nineteenth century, recent reprint by Amazon.com, Marson Gate, Great Britain. 1 Q ueen Elizabeth II and the Economists 1 . UBS Investor’s Guide , February 24, 2012. 2 . The joke in France is that its universities teach only two economic theories: Marxist and Keynesian. 3 . T i m o t h y C h e e k , Mao Zedong and China’s Revolutions (Boston: Bedford/ St. Martin’s, 2002). 4 . And a first-rate political leader. 5 . The Economist , May 5, 2012. 6 . Several of Albert Einstein’s theories, which were based on hypotheses for- mulated and exploited by a penetrating mind, have been proven postmortem by observations and experiments. But many renowned physicists objected to them when Einstein published his five revolutionary papers within half a year. NOTES 259 7 . Marx tried to do so but as an armchair theorist. He never rubbed shoul- ders with politicians and never worked in industry or finance (see chapter 9 on the importance of doing so). Lenin was a politician, but he abandoned Marxism with his New Economic Policy. 8 . UBS Investor’s Guide , February 24, 2012. 9 . According to a saying, common sense is the most widely distributed quality, that’s why each of us has so little of it. 10 . Which is also becoming common in China and India. 1 1 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Household Finance: Adrift in a Sea of Red Ink (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013). 12 . By contrast, in Carthage, nobility was based above everything else on wealth. 1 3 . B . D . H o p k i n s , The Making of Modern Afghanistan (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008). 14 . Corrigan also advised Greenspan that the growth and complexity of off– balance sheet activities, and the nature of credit, price, and settlement risk they entail, should give all of us cause for concern. D. N. Chorafas, Wealth Management: Private Banking, Investment Decisions and Structured Financial Products (London and Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2005). 1 5 . C h o r a f a s , Household Finance. 16. In fact, not only of the Soviet Union but also of regimes in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and East Germany. 17 . Jacques Attali, La Crise, et Apr è s? (Paris: Fayard, 2008). 18 . From a personal discussion. 1 9 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Globalization’s Limits: Conflicting National Interests in Trade and Finance (London: Gower, 2009). The Chinese state, for example, is the biggest shareholder in the country’s largest companies, guides thousands more, directs money to favored industries, and shapes the overall market by micromanaging the currency. 20 . In an interview he gave to Bloomberg News on July 20, 2012. 2 1 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Breaking Up the Euro: The End of a Common Currency (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013). 22 . In France, no politician will ever think of pronouncing the word “austerity,” let alone practice it because he or she knows very well that this will be the end of his political career. 2 3 . Le Monde , August 11, 2011. 24 . Slate.fr, August 11, 2011. 25 . Democratic, of course, up to a point. 2 6 . C h o r a f a s , Household Finance. 2 7 . UBS Investor’s Guide , July 13, 2012. 2 8 . The Economist , June 2, 2012. 2 9 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Financial Boom and Gloom: The Credit and Banking Crisis of 2007–2009 and Beyond (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009). 30 . As a brief reminder, in 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait provoking strong inter- national reaction in solidarity with the emirate. The allies liberated Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, but also set a precedent for global intervention. 260 NOTES 31 . In 2012, for totally different reasons, this sequence of outlier events repeated itself in Greece. 32 . Though the funds for saving what could still be saved were provided by the private sector: banks and hedge funds, in a solution brokered by the New York Fed. 3 3 . D . N . C h o r a f a s , Managing Risk in the New Economy (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 2001). 34 . These have been mortgages pushed down the throat of financially weak peo- ple and households who could hardly afford them. 3 5 . Financial Times , May 18, 2012. 36 . This is indeed a missed opportunity particularly on behalf of a famous economics school well known for its Left leanings, and its critique of capitalism. 3 7 . Bloomberg News , May 2, 2012. 38 . Governor Brown could not convince voters to approve a round of new taxes. He has staked his term on the need for new revenues but is sticking to an election pledge to put any increase to California voters. 39. As another example, on August 8, 2011, the S&P 500 dropped 80 points. Again, models indicated that this should only happen once every 10,000 years. Then, on September 23, 2011, gold dropped USD 100/oz in intraday trading, projected as being a once-in-60-years event. 40 . Statistically, theory says that 99.7 percent of measurements fall within three standard deviations. An event falling more than three standard deviations from the mean is expected to happen at a very low frequency. An eight stan- dard deviations event is only meant to happen once every three trillion years. But as we saw, a 14.5 standard deviations event happened in 1987 and a 25 standard deviations event two decades later in 2008. 41 . As a recent UCLA study demonstrated, crimes are more likely to occur in rapid succession and in close proximity to one another, which the UCLA researchers called a self-exciting process ( UCLA Magazine , April 2012). 42 . Reportedly, in its annual financial accounts, Lehman Brothers misrep- resented some $50 billion. According to Sarbanes-Oxley the bank’s CEO and CFO had to sign the financial statements and they were first in line of responsibility—but nobody has brought them to justice. 43 . Economists laboring to come up with predictions are also confronted by the query whether these predictions matter to the financial markets.
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