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A Systematic Review of the Relation Between Species Traits And bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/408096; this version posted September 4, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 A systematic review of the relation between species traits and 2 extinction risk 3 4 Filipe Chichorro 1*, Aino Juslén2 and Pedro Cardoso1 5 1LiBRE – Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University 6 of Helsinki, PO Box 17 (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), 00014 Helsinki, Finland 7 2Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, PO Box 17 (Pohjoinen Rautatiekatu 13), 00014 8 Helsinki, Finland 9 *Address for correspondence (Tel: +358 469 508 202; E-mail: [email protected]) 10 11 ABSTRACT 12 13 Biodiversity is shrinking rapidly, and despite our efforts only a small part of it has been assessed for 14 extinction risk. Identifying the traits that make species vulnerable might help us to predict the outcome for 15 those less known. We gathered information on the relations of traits to extinction risk from 173 publications, 16 across all taxa, spatial scales and biogeographical regions, in what we think is the most comprehensive 17 compilation to date. The Palaearctic is the most represented biogeographical realm in extinction risk studies, 18 but the other realms are also well sampled for all vertebrate groups. Other taxa are less well represented and 19 there are gaps for some biogeographical realms. Many traits have been suggested to be good predictors of 20 extinction risk. Among these, our meta-analyses were successful in identifying two as potentially useful in 21 assessing risk for the lesser-known species: regardless of the taxon, species with small range and habitat 22 breadth – two of the three classic dimensions of rarity – are more vulnerable to extinction. On the other hand, 23 body size (the most studied trait) did not present a consistently positive or negative response. Large species 1 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/408096; this version posted September 4, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 24 can be more, or less, threatened than their smaller counterparts, depending on the taxon and spatial setting. In 25 line with recent research, we hypothesize that the relationship between body size and extinction risk is 26 shaped by different aspects, namely body size is a proxy for different phenomena depending on the 27 taxonomic group, and there might be relevant interactions between body size and the specific threat that a 28 species faces. With implications across all traits, a particular focus in future studies should be given to the 29 interaction between traits and threats. Furthermore, intraspecific variability of traits should be part of future 30 studies whenever data is available. We also propose two complementary paths to better understand extinction 31 risk dynamics: (i) the simulation of virtual species and settings for theoretical insights, and (ii) the use of 32 comprehensive and comparable empirical data representative of all taxa and regions under a unified study. 33 Keywords: biological traits, functional diversity, IUCN, machine learning, meta-analysis, threat status. 34 Contents 35 ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 36 I. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 37 II. Material and Methods ...................................................................................................................................... 6 38 (1) Bibliography selection.................................................................................................................................. 6 39 (2) Statistical analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 8 40 (a) Data collection ......................................................................................................................................... 8 41 (b) Trait classes ............................................................................................................................................. 9 42 (c) Exploratory analysis .............................................................................................................................. 10 43 (d) Meta-analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 10 44 III. Results ........................................................................................................................................................... 11 45 (1) Bibliography selection................................................................................................................................ 11 46 (2) Exploratory analysis ................................................................................................................................... 12 47 (a) Studies ................................................................................................................................................... 12 2 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/408096; this version posted September 4, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 48 (b) Traits ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 49 (3) Meta-analysis .............................................................................................................................................. 13 50 IV. Discussion ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 51 (1) Relation between traits and extinction risk ................................................................................................ 15 52 (2) Generalization............................................................................................................................................. 20 53 (3) Next steps ................................................................................................................................................... 21 54 V. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................... 23 55 VI. Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... 25 56 VII. References ................................................................................................................................................... 26 57 VIII. Supporting Information ............................................................................................................................. 53 58 Figures ................................................................................................................................................................. 54 59 Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. 59 60 61 3 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/408096; this version posted September 4, 2018. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 62 I. Introduction 63 64 The last annual checklist of the Catalogue of Life reports 1.7 million (eukaryote) species described on this 65 planet (Roskov et al., 2017). Describing the remaining estimated 7 million might still take 1,200 years if the 66 rates of description, average number of new species described per taxonomist’s career, and average cost to 67 describe species remain constant (Mora et al., 2011). This latency in describing species is put into a typical 68 crisis context if, as predicted, 3,000 species fall into extinction every year (Wilson, 2003; González-Oreja, 69 2008), many of them undescribed. 70 The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) compiles and keeps updated a database with 71 assessments of risk of extinction for species. As of August 2018, 26 197 (28%) of all 93 577 species in this 72 list were either Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable to extinction and 14 616 (16%) were Data 73 Deficient (IUCN, 2018). Yet, species in the IUCN database mostly comprise well-known taxa (e.g. 67% of 74 vertebrates have been assessed versus 0.8% of insects (IUCN, 2018)), and it will probably take decades until 75 a reasonable
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