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Halcyon New York, New York THE WEITZMAN GROUP, INC. Real Estate Consultants 355 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10017 212 949-4000 FAX# 212 949-0875 MARKETABILITY AND CASH FLOW ANALYSIS OF HALCYON NEW YORK, NEW YORK AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2014 Prepared For: POLAR INVESTMENTS GROUP AND ORIGO INVESTMENTS G.P. MARCH 6, 2015 The Weitzman Group, Inc. 355 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY Account: 048-15F Copyright © 2015, The Weitzman Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE WEITZMAN GROUP, INC. Real Estate Consultants 355 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10017 212 949-4000 FAX# 212 949-0875 March 6, 2015 Mr. Eyal Bigon Mr. Thor Rozenberg Chief Financial Officer Chief Financial Officer Polar Investments Group Origo Investments G.P. 35 Ehad Ha’am St. 35 Ehad Ha’am St. Tel Aviv, Israel Tel Aviv, Israel Re: Marketability and Cash Flow Analysis Halcyon Condominiums New York, New York Dear Messrs. Bigon and Rozenberg: Thank you for the opportunity to provide Polar and Origo with a reasonable independent forecast of cash flow after debt service resulting from the remaining construction, sellout, and closings of the residential condominiums, retail space, and residential parking and storage at the Halcyon Condominiums in the Midtown East area of Manhattan. Our research in support of this study occurred during January and February 2015, with data obtained during this time period used to validate our retrospective assumptions, although the date of our analysis is as of December 31, 2014. This engagement does not include an appraisal or valuation of the project, and nothing herein should be construed as representing an appraisal. The purpose of the assignment is to present an independent projection of cash flows after construction debt service for use by Polar and Origo in determining prospective cash flows to the various investor positions in the project. We understand that this analysis will be reviewed by your accounting staff, and that our projections will be utilized for reference purposes in financial statements and reporting. We have enjoyed working with you on this assignment. Please contact us if you have any questions or comments regarding this cash flow analysis or the marketability and financial assumptions from which it is derived. Very truly yours, THE WEITZMAN GROUP, INC. Marilyn K. Weitzman, MAI, CRE, FRICS Peter T. Bazeli, MRICS President Senior Vice President Ali Raza Associate Copyright © 2015, The Weitzman Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE WEITZMAN GROUP 1 Real Estate Consultants NEIGHBORHOOD AND REGIONAL LOCATION MAPS THE HALCYON Copyright © 2015, The Weitzman Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE WEITZMAN GROUP 2 Real Estate Consultants TABLE OF CONTENTS Objectives and Tasks Completed .................................................................................................. 1 Property Overview ........................................................................................................................ 1 Construction Trends ...................................................................................................................... 7 Condominium Market Overview ................................................................................................ 11 Comparable Condominium Communities .................................................................................. 17 Retail Market Overview .............................................................................................................. 34 Cash Flow Projections ................................................................................................................ 39 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 46 Addenda Exhibit A – Basic Assumptions and Limiting Conditions Exhibit B – Certification of the Consultants Exhibit C - Qualifications of the Consultants Copyright © 2015, The Weitzman Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE WEITZMAN GROUP 1 Real Estate Consultants OBJECTIVES AND TASKS COMPLETED The Weitzman Group was engaged to provide the client identified herein with a reasonable independent cash flow and marketability analysis of the Halcyon. In preparation of this analysis, The Weitzman Group completed the following tasks: Reviewed the residential and retail market fundamentals and trends in an effort to determine the overall health of the relevant markets. Toured the property’s residential floors and retail space, and met with the salesperson leading the sales effort for the residential component. Obtained numerous residential sale and retail lease comparables in relevant locations including Turtle Bay, Sutton Place, and Lenox Hill. Analyzed transaction data and recent availability among a group of peer condominium buildings that frame the market for prospective sales of new condominiums at the project. Obtained retail condominium sales transaction data, and analyzed retail sale transaction trends and reported investment rates in this asset class. Reviewed economic and demographic trends that provide context to the potential sellout of the project. Conducted a detailed monthly cash flow analysis within Microsoft Excel. We were asked by our client to present a limited report summarizing our research findings and documentation of the market support for our conclusions and underwriting assumptions. Thus, while we have reviewed a great deal of market data related to the Halcyon project, not all of our research is summarized in this report. All of our research has been retained in our files. PROPERTY OVERVIEW LOCATION The subject property is located at 305 East 51st Street, in Midtown East within the Turtle Bay neighborhood, between First and Second Avenues. Turtle Bay is located south of Lenox Hill, with Murray Hill at its southern border, Sutton Place and Beekman to its east and the corner of Midtown to its west. The area is characterized by the presence of the United Nations and is home to diplomats and other affluent residents. The neighborhood features a mix of building types, ranging from brownstones to modern residential high-rises. Midtown East Bordered by 42nd Street to the south and East 59th Street to the north, between Avenue of the Americas and the East River, the Midtown East neighborhood (which includes Turtle Bay) is characterized by the presence of the largest central business district in the country. Offering the convenience of living close to Copyright © 2015, The Weitzman Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE WEITZMAN GROUP 2 Real Estate Consultants work, the neighborhood has become home to several high-end residential towers, and today, comprises a diverse residential stock, from new luxury high-rise buildings to pre-war walkups. The eastern part of the neighborhood, which also includes enclaves such as Sutton Place, Tudor City and Beekman Place, comprises a number of luxury residential towers that offer expansive views of the East River. The area is also home to a number of diplomats and staff that are affiliated with the United Nations, which is located in Turtle Bay along 42nd Street. Midtown East is home to many of New York City’s finest shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. It has excellent access to transit and will further improve with the addition of the Second Avenue Subway line. The first phase of the Second Avenue Subway line will open in December 2016. When fully completed the Second Avenue Subway line will stretch about 8.5 miles on Manhattan’s East Side from 125th Street in Harlem to Hanover Square in Downtown Manhattan. While the neighborhood is largely served by the 4,5,6 Lexington Avenue Line, the presence of Grand Central at 42nd Street and Park Avenue, provides access to the City’s main regional transportation hub, which connects multiple subway lines and the Metro North commuter railroad. While Fifth Avenue features the most prominent retail corridor in the City the neighborhood also offers small-scale retail, discreet coffee shops and dining establishments along the eastern avenues. A Whole Foods supermarket recently opened on 57th Street, between Third and Second Avenues. Midtown East is a popular residential location for families with children, offering a relatively affordable alternative to other family-friendly neighborhoods in Manhattan, such as the Upper East and West Sides, or the West Village. The proximity to Central Park and the presence of premier schools such as Beekman School at 220 East 50th Street, are among a number of amenities that appeal to families of the neighborhood. PROJECT SCOPE The Halcyon is a 32-story, 123 unit building designed by New York architect S. Russell Groves and is being developed by HFZ Capital Group. The development has a limestone-clad base and a steel and glass tower facade. Units include a broad range of sizes with studios, one to four bedrooms and duplex penthouses. The interior finishes feature 10’ ceiling heights, 6” wide plank oak floors, double-paned energy efficient windows, and solid core wood interior doors. The kitchen areas are custom designed by Varenna and have laquered cabinetry, Calacatta Gold marble countertops, a Subzero wine cooler in most units, Wolf microwave and a Miele appliance package. The bathrooms have radiant heated flooring, Kohler fixtures, and Statuary marble countertops and walls. The building includes amenities such as a library, courtyard, children’s playroom, a sky lounge, a workout studio, a 52-foot pool, and a fitness center. Furthermore, the building’s owners benefit from a 421-A tax abatement. There were 92
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