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Mexico Weekly Watch December 23, 2011

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Mexico Weekly Watch December 23, 2011 Weekly Watch Mexico December 23, 2011 Economic Analysis Public finance indicators will provide more information on domestic demand performance which saw strong growth in the third quarter... Cecilia Posadas [email protected] This week sees the release of demand component performance in Q3 of the year. A positive surprise saw private consumption grow above expectations (expected 0.8% q/q vs. 2.0% observed). This confirms the relative strength of domestic demand components. All private domestic demand maintained expected rates, with a higher-than-expected contribution from private consumption and lower for investment. Good jobs performance and formal employment income support increased spending alongside the banking system's financing capacity. Meanwhile, the outlook for global activity is down. This could be having an impact on private investor dynamism in an environment free from pressure in capacity utilization. Recent figures point to GDP slowing in quarterly terms in 4Q11 to levels near 0.2%-0.3% q/q. This means an annual increase for the whole year of 3.8% or 3.9%. The outlook for 2012 continues to be lower growth than in 2011, around 3.3%, since it seems unlikely that financing conditions for households and business improve as well which were especially favorable in 2010 and the first Market Analysis part of 2011. In addition, the political drive in domestic spending should only accumulate in the first half of 2012 with foreign demand seeing no additional improvement in coming quarters. In all, this Octavio Gutiérrez Engelmann should lead to lower job and private domestic spending growth. [email protected] The published data are in line with GDP growth of around 3.8% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012 although downward risks predominate linked to the overseas economic environment both in terms of demand and financing conditions. Chart 1 GDP and demand components (y/y % Chart 2 change and components) Private Consumption (q/q and y/y%) 6 6 10 10 4 4 2 2 5 5 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 -10 -10 1T07 2T07 3T07 4T07 1T08 2T08 3T08 4T08 1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10 4T10 1T11 2T11 3T11 PrivateDemanda Privada Demand PublicDemanda PúblicaDemand -15 -15 NetExportaciones Exports Netas GapBrecha* (seasonal (ajuste estacional) adjustment) 2T08 3T08 4T08 1T09 2T09 3T09 4T09 1T10 2T10 3T10 4T10 1T11 2T11 3T11 GDPPIB 1T08 t/t%q/q % a/a% y/y % Source: BBVA Research and INEGI Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg on Friday No part of this document can be reproduced, taken away or transmitted to those countries (or persons or entities from such) where distribution may be prohibited by current law. Non-compliance with these restrictions may constitute an infraction of the law in the pertinent jurisdiction. SEE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AT THE END OF THE DOCUMENT Page 1 Weekly Watch Mexico December 23, 2011 Calendar: Indicators Public finances in November Forecast: N.A. Consensus: N.A. Previous: Economic Analysis Next week sees the release of data on public finances for November. As we have stated previously, these are important to see the performance of federal government revenue and spending with the first being particularly important given the country's high dependence on non- Pedro Uriz Borrás [email protected] tax revenue such as oil sales. Tax income saw aggregate growth of 3.5% over the year to October which compares negatively to the 13.6% growth in oil revenue and the 7.6% from organizations and business. This poor performance is mainly due to VAT in 2011 which saw an accumulated fall of -1.3% since income tax (ISR) saw 11.1% growth and IEPS (special tax on products and services) came in 10% higher. It should be stated that from 2010 on, the VAT rate increased from 15 to 16%. Therefore, despite the fall in collection reducing over the months, it is worrying that it is negative in a setting showing continuous recovery in economic output. In this way, although it is undeniable that the forecast public deficit for this year is 2.5%, the slow recovery in revenue after the 2009 crisis is worrying. This is why fiscal matters always have a predominant place in discussions on economic policy in Mexico and will surely be mentioned by candidates this coming year in the presidential election race. Chart 3 Chart 4 Federal government revenue in crisis Tax revenue from the start of the crisis periods (crisis start index=100) (Index Oct. 08=100) 102 102 115 115 100 100 110 110 105 105 98 98 100 100 96 96 95 95 94 94 90 90 92 92 85 85 80 80 90 90 75 75 88 88 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Abr-09 Abr-10 Abr-11 T=1 T=3 T=5 T=7 T=9 Ene-09 Ene-10 Ene-11 T=11 T=13 T=15 T=17 T=19 T=21 T=23 T=25 T=27 T=29 T=31 T=33 T=35 T=37 CurrentPerido period Actual 1995Crisis crisis1995 VAT Income Other IVA ISR Resto Source: BBVA Research with INEGI data Source: BBVA Research with INEGI data No part of this document can be reproduced, taken away or transmitted to those countries (or persons or entities from such) where distribution may be prohibited by current law. Non-compliance with these restrictions may constitute an infraction of the law in the pertinent jurisdiction. SEE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AT THE END OF THE DOCUMENT Page 2 Weekly Watch Mexico December 23, 2011 Markets Chart 7 Chart 8 Stock Markets: MSCI Indices Foreign exchange: dollar exchange rates Stock markets up (Nov 22, 2011 index=100) (Nov 22, 2011 index=100) over the week after 106 106 110 110 the release of higher- than-expected US Brasil data on jobs, housing 106 106 and durable goods 102 Latam 102 orders. The exchange rate saw slight 102 102 Asia appreciation over the 98 México 98 week. 98 98 94 94 94 94 12/2/2011 12/6/2011 12/4/2011 12/8/2011 11/22/2011 11/24/2011 11/28/2011 12/10/2011 12/14/2011 12/18/2011 12/20/2011 12/22/2011 11/26/2011 11/30/2011 12/12/2011 12/16/2011 22/11/11 25/11/11 28/11/11 01/12/11 04/12/11 07/12/11 19/12/11 22/12/11 13/12/11 16/12/11 México LATAM Asia S&P 10/12/11 Source: Bloomberg & BBVA Research Source: Bloomberg and BBVA Research. Note: LATAM includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. Asia includes the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand. Non-weighted averages Chart 9 Chart 10 Risk: EMBI+ (Nov 22, 2011 index=100) Risk: 5-year CDS (November 22, 2011 index=100) 110 110 110 110 Slight fall in risk aversion over the Emergentes 100 100 week 100 100 Brasil 90 90 90 90 México 80 80 México 80 80 70 70 12/1/11 12/4/11 12/7/11 11/22/11 11/25/11 12/10/11 12/13/11 12/16/11 12/19/11 12/22/11 11/28/11 12/1/2011 12/4/2011 12/7/2011 11/22/2011 11/28/2011 12/10/2011 12/13/2011 12/16/2011 12/19/2011 12/22/2011 11/25/2011 Source: Bloomberg & BBVA Research Source: Bloomberg & BBVA Research Chart 11 Chart 12 Fall in Mexico's rate 10-year interest rates*, last month Carry-trade Mexico index (%) and rise in US 6.8 2.6 0.45 0.45 treasury rates due to 0.40 0.40 greater investor 6.6 2.4 optimism thanks to México 0.35 0.35 better-than-expected 0.30 0.30 US data. 6.4 2.2 0.25 0.25 6.2 EEUU 2.0 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15 6.0 1.8 06/01/09 09/01/09 03/01/10 06/01/10 09/01/10 12/01/10 03/01/11 06/01/11 09/01/11 12/01/09 25/11/11 28/11/11 01/12/11 04/12/11 07/12/11 10/12/11 13/12/11 16/12/11 19/12/11 22/12/11 22/11/11 Source: Bloomberg & BBVA Research Source: BBVA Research with data from Bloomberg No part of this document can be reproduced, taken away or transmitted to those countries (or persons or entities from such) where distribution may be prohibited by current law. Non-compliance with these restrictions may constitute an infraction of the law in the pertinent jurisdiction. SEE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AT THE END OF THE DOCUMENT Page 3 Weekly Watch Mexico December 23, 2011 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification I, Octavio Gutiérrez, Rodrigo Ortega, Edgar Cruz, Claudia Ceja, Ociel Hernández, Liliana Solis and Alejandro Fuentes Pérez: hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the mentioned corporation(s) and its (their) securities. I also certify that I have not been, am not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for any specific recommendation in this report. Rating, target price and price history information for the companies that are the subject of this report are available at www.bancomer.com Receipt of Compensation / Provision of Services current as of 12/14/1111/22/11 Management or Co- Management of Public Offering. Within the past twelve months, BBVA Bancomer, S.A., Institución de Banca -manager in public offerings, and received compensation for these services, of the company(ies), which is(are) the subject of this report: Actinver, Arca Continental, Banco Compartamos, Banco Interacciones, Banco Inbursa, BNP, Bimbo, Caterpillar Credito, Cemex, Comisión Federal de Electricidad, Corporación Interamericana de Inversiones, Chedraui, Daimler, El Puerto de Liverpool, Embotelladoras Arca, Facileasing, Ferrocarril Mexicano, Fonacot, GE Capital Bank, General Electric, GMAC, Hipotecaria su Casita, HSBC, INFONAVIT, Maxcom, Megacable, Nemak, NRF(Nissan), OHL, Paccar, Pemex, Posadas, Prudential Fiancial, Ruba, Tefovis, Telmex Internacional, Telefónica Móviles México, Toyota, Urbi, VWLease.
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