Working Paper Working Agriculture and Climate Change in Kenya: Climate Chaos, Policy Dilemmas Immaculate Mainai, Andrew Newshamii and Michael Okotii June 2013 Working Paper 070 www.future-agricultures.org Table of Contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 4 2 Concepts and methods ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Understanding policy processes: a conceptual framework .................................................................................... 4 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5 3 Policy context on climate change an agriculture in Kenya .............................................................. 6 4 Confronting climate change in Kenyan agriculture: Narratives and actors ...................................... 7 4.1 Adaptation, resilience and food security .......................................................................................................................7 4.1.1 Drought tolerant and disease and pest resistance crops .............................................................................9 4.1.2 Conservation agriculture (CA) .............................................................................................................................9 4.1.3 Livestock and small ruminants ............................................................................................................................10 4.2 Mitigation, energy and REDD+ .......................................................................................................................................10 4.2.1 Production of bio-fuels instead of food production ....................................................................................11 4.2.2 ‘Climate-Smart Agriculture’ ..............................................................................................................................12 4.3 Finance for climate change and agriculture in Kenya ............................................................................................13 5 Implications for future development ............................................................................................... 14 5.1 Overall direction – undefined climate change and agriculture ‘landscape’. ...................................................14 5.2 Lack of capacity leading to spaces for external actors? ........................................................................................ 15 5.3 Redefining actors and activities. ..................................................................................................................................... 15 6 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 16 7 References ........................................................................................................................................ 17 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................... 19 Annex 1: List of key informants and interviewees, July-October 2011 .................................................... 19 Annex 2: List of key actors and networks ................................................................................................. 20 Annex 3: Summary of policies in the Agricultural Sector Ministries in Kenya (1994-2008) ..................... 26 Annex 4: Acronyms and abbreviations ..................................................................................................... 28 Working Paper 070 2 www.future-agricultures.org Summary This paper analyses emerging policy discussions on climate change and agriculture in Kenya. Kenya has been ahead of many other countries in developing a national climate change strategy, and agriculture is one of the key critical sectors of interest. However, there are concerns about whether policy goals may be achieved amidst the actors’ many and diverging interests. This paper sets out to map how these debates are starting to take place in practice, and poses the following questions: what are the arguments, who is promoting them, and what are the implications for Kenya’s agricultural sector? A better understanding of the key actors, their interests and through what narratives actor-interests are mobilised is important because they will all have implications for the kinds of support farmers at the local level do or do not receive, and the extent to which their own interests are fore grounded or marginalised within the policy process. Ultimately, the policy response to climate change in the agricultural sector is one important factor which mediates local-level vulnerability. The paper examines key policy narratives and documents on climate change and agriculture, how (groups of) key actors cluster in relation to the narratives, and how they are manifesting themselves in practice. In the area of climate change, Kenya has a comparably strong government interest and activity. Politically, the debate has centred on the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) which is implemented through the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). The NCCAP has been finalised and was launched in March 2013 (GoK, 2013). The emerging dominant narratives in Kenya are focused on the need to protect food security and agricultural resources from the negative impacts of climate change, and on the other, the possible opportunities for capitalising on carbon funding, often with an all-too familiar emphasis on the ‘technical fix’. A number of activities are taking place with donor support. In addition, a large number of NGOs and an increasing number of private actors are becoming key players. However, it should be acknowledged that the agricultural sector has only recently started to grapple with the implications of climate change. As a consequence, the key policy narratives, actors and interests which will shape the policy response to climate change are still coalescing, and the picture remains somewhat unclear. Moreover, the uncertainty over the timing and extent of international funding to assist the agricultural sector to build resilience to climate impacts both slows the process and raises a series of questions about demonstrating added value. The paper argues that, so far, the lack of policy coherence creates a risk of undermining long term policy goals on climate change and agriculture. To develop greater coherence, the paper posits that there is a need for more joined up policies across government beyond strategies laid out in NCCRS. The new NCCAP (GoK, 2013) provides some directions. Some of the proposed actions in the crops sector include promotion and bulking of drought tolerant traditional high value crops, conservation agriculture and integrated soil fertility management. The priority actions for livestock and pastoralism are fodder banks, price stabilisation mechanisms, livestock diversification, and capacity building. Given that there are already signs that the ways in which food security and carbon funding objectives are pursued seem already to favour some interest groups (i.e. intensive farming over pastoralism and dryland farming), there is a need to ensure there is space for a diversity of perspectives to be heard. Working Paper 070 3 www.future-agricultures.org 1 Introduction champions” in order to take advantage of expected climate funds. Kenya was among the first non-LDC countries in Africa to develop government plans for responses to 3. The lack of a coherent national policy framework climate change across key economic sectors. Kenya’s leaves significant space for powerful actors to recent National Climate Change Response Strategy influence and direct the climate change-agriculture (NCCRS, GoK 2010) and the national climate change agenda in the country implementation framework (2012) illustrate that climate change has acquired the status of a key national policy 5. There is recognition of the need for increased challenge. The National Climate Change Action Plan (GoK, adaptive capacity in agriculture, but limitations in 2013) was launched in March, 2013. This was developed strategic actions or other ‘alternative’ narratives in through a consultative process that engaged actors the current environment. across government, the private sector and civil society. Agriculture is a key part of the NCCRS, and the NCCAP The paper is structured as follows. Section two charts reflecting the reliance on agriculture for the national the concepts and methods that underpin this study. This economy and for providing labour locally; 80% of Kenyans is followed in section three by a consideration of the live in rural areas and depend directly or indirectly on current policy context on climate change and agriculture agriculture for their livelihoods. The agricultural sector in Kenya. Section four offers an account of stakeholders’ comprises 24% of Kenya’s GDP and 19% of the formal perceptions on climate change and agriculture policy wage employment. An estimated 60%