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André-Michel Guerry and the Rise of Moral Statistics

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André-Michel Guerry and the Rise of Moral Statistics Outline Andre-Michel´ Guerry and the Rise of Moral Statistics Introduction Essai sur la statistique moral de la France Challenges for Multivariable Spatial Analysis Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Life Michael Friendly Guerry’s Data Guerry’s Works Psychology Department Guerry’s Methods York University Multivariate Analyses: Data-centric Views May 2006 Bivariate displays Joint Statistical Meetings Reduced-rank displays Multivariate Mapping: Map-centric Views Glyph maps Blended color maps Conditioned choropleth maps Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 1/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 2/59 Introduction Statistique moral de la France Introduction Statistique moral de la France Essai sur la statistique moral de la France The discovery of “social facts” The launching pad of modern social science Stability and Variation Guerry’s results were both compelling and startling: I Rates of crime and suicide remained remarkably invariant over time, yet varied sytematically by region, sex of accused, type of crime, etc. I Presented to Academie des Sciences I In any given French city or department, almost the same number Franc¸ais July 2, 1832 committed suicide, stole, gave birth out of wedlock, etc. I First systematic analysis of comprehensive data on crime, suicide, Year 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 Avg and other social variables. Sex All accused (%) I Along with Quetelet (1831, 1835), Male 79 79 78 77 78 78 established the study of “moral statistics” Female 21 21 22 23 22 22 7→ modern social science, criminology, Age Accused of Theft (%) sociology 16–25 37 35 38 37 37 37 25–25 31 32 30 31 32 31 Crime Committed in summer (%) Indecent assault . 36 36 35 38 36 Assault & battery . 28 27 27 27 28 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 5/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 6/59 Introduction Statistique moral de la France Introduction Statistique moral de la France The discovery of “social facts” Social context of crime Social laws a´ la physical laws What to do about crime? Do crime and other moral variables represent: I Crime a serious concern: Explosive growth in Paris, widespread unemployment, emergence of the “dangerous classes.” I structural, lawful characteristics of society, or are they I Liberal (philanthrope) view: increase education, better prison conditions, I simply indicants of individual behaviour? religious instruction, better diet (bread and soup!) I Conservative view: build more prisons, harsher treatment for recidivists! Guerry argued: Each year sees the same number of crimes of the same degree Guerry’s results were startling reproduced in the same regions.(Guerry, 1833, p.10) I Crimes against persons and crimes against property showed different ... We are forced to recognize that the facts of the moral order are distributions over departments of France subject, like those of the physical order, to invariable laws (Guerry, I Crimes against persons unrelated to literacy 1833, p14) I Crimes against property increased with literacy! Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 7/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 8/59 Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Life Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Life Guerry’s Life Guerry’s Life Sources Accomplishments I Primary: Larousse, Grand Dictionnaire, 1866; necrology and notices by I Three major works on moral statistics: A. Maury, H. Diard, E. Vinet, 1867 I 1829: Statistique comparee´ de l’etat´ de l’instruction...; I Secondary: Whitt, translation of Guerry (1833), Beirne (1993, Ch 4), The I 1833: Essai sur la statistique morale...; Social Cartography of Crime, brief mentions, often in relation to Quetelet I 1864: Statistique morale de l’Angleterre comparee...´ by criminologists (Radzinowicz), sociologists (Lazarsfeld), historians I 1833 & 1864 awarded the Moynton Prize for work in statistics by the (Porter, Hacking), ... Academie des Sciences I Invented the ordonateur statistique, to facilitate calculation and tabulation Basic facts of these data (no details survive). [“Ordonateur” adopted by IBM France to avoid the franglais “computeur.”] I Born: Tours, 25 Dec 1802; Died: Paris, 9 Apr 1866 I I Father: Michel Guerry, enterpreneur First analysis of the motives for suicide (content analysis of all suicide I Studied law, literature and physiology at Univ. Poitiers notes found by police in Paris) [Adopted, with little credit, by Durkheim] I Admitted to the bar in Paris, becomes Advocat Royale I Developed methodological ideas for defining indicators of moral variables I 1827: Assigned to work with the crime data collected by the Ministry of I How to measure crime: # of accused? convictions? Justice I National standards for statistics on literacy, education? I 1830: Appointed Director of Criminal Statistics in Ministry of Justice I How to determine relations between variables? Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 11/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 12/59 Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Data Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works Guerry’s data 1829: Statistique comparee´ de l’etat´ de l’instruction... I Compte gen´ eral´ de l’administration de la justice criminelle en France I Done with Adriano Balbi I The first national compilation of official justice data (1825) I Single-sheet set of three I detailed data on all charges and disposition shaded maps (darker = I collected quarterly in all 86 departments. worse) I Other sources: Bureau de Longitudes (illegitimate births); Parent-Duchateletˆ I (prostitutes in Paris); Compte du ministere du guerre (military desertions); ... Crime against persons, property (pop per crime) I Moral variables: Scaled so ’more’ is ’better’ I Instruction (# male school Crime pers Population per Crime against persons children) Crime prop Population per Crime against property Donations Donations to the poor Infants Population per illegitimate birth Literacy Percent who can read & write Suicides Population per suicide I Other variables: Ranks by department: wealth, commerce, ... Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 14/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 16/59 Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works 1829: Statistique comparee´ de l’etat´ de l’instruction... 1833: Essai sur la statistique morale de la France I Divided the 86 I First shaded thematic departments into 5 maps of crime data regions I First comparative maps of I Supplemented data from social data the Compte gen´ eral´ with: I 7→ crime against persons I Suicides in Paris, seemed inversely related 1794–1832 to crime against property! I Prostitutes in Paris I Instruction: 7→ France (Parent-Duchatelet)ˆ obscure and France I Wealth (taxes per eclair´ ee´ (Dupin, 1826) inhabitant) I Distribution of clergy I North of France highest in I ... education, but also in I First study to use crime property crime! data to ‘test’ hypotheses I Attracted widespread interest in Europe Guerry’s 1833 map of literacy in France Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 17/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 18/59 Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works 1833: Essai sur la statistique morale de la France 1833: Essai sur la statistique morale de la France Reproduced maps (good=blue, middle=yellow, bad=red) First comprehensive, national data on moral variables I Crimes against persons I Crimes against property I Literacy Population per Crime against persons Population per Crime against property Per cent who can Read and Write 59 69 5 26 62 56 83 38 53 39 66 85 2 19 60 52 64 78 72 31 68 80 34 24 62 10 42 7 12 65 9 52 65 64 86 71 27 68 15 33 77 79 1322 12 3 1 14 7082 76 73 56 54 21 56 68 76 37 7 79 52 49 46 34 4 6 62 6 68 73 76 55 67 30 68 22 83 74 5 66 13 12 82 60 84 36 49 55 16 5 32 50 37 57 29 47 60 73 51 24 26 48 78 81 67 57 64 20 17 74 47 9 36 22 26 85 54 64 76 53 3 14 65 51 85 50 82 75 43 44 77 29 8 38 40 25 35 11 48 22 70 48 3 77 84 42 86 86 17 30 45 28 8 3 56 43 63 32 71 18 83 80 81 45 40 12 31 26 44 82 56 1 31 53 38 29 72 79 85 10 35 15 61 8 19 33 41 73 46 52 47 26 50 80 2 6 63 23 20 26 58 7 15 61 32 40 35 35 58 21 20 42 35 23 17 25 59 50 29 22 47 16 27 14 42 14 20 18 75 78 17 69 44 56 44 17 31 42 58 39 60 35 11 28 71 74 66 39 3 70 10 4 45 35 Rank 1 - 9 10 - 19 20 - 28 1 Rank 1 - 9 10 - 19 20 - 28 10 Rank 1 - 8 10 - 17 20 - 26 62 29 - 38 39 - 47 48 - 57 29 - 38 39 - 47 48 - 57 29 - 35 38 - 47 48 - 56 58 - 66 67 - 76 77 - 86 58 - 66 67 - 76 77 - 86 58 - 66 68 - 76 77 - 86 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 19/59 Michael Friendly (York University) Andre-Michel´ Guerry JSM,Aug.2006 20/59 Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works Guerry’s Life and Work Guerry’s Works 1833: Essai sur la statistique morale de la France 1864: Statistique morale de l’Angleterre comparee...´ Dayenu! Reproduced maps (good=blue, middle=yellow, bad=red) I Proposes to replace simple “moral I Illigitimate births (infants naturelles) statistics” (tables) with “analytical statistics” I Donations to poor I calculation, graphic display I Suicide I 7→ general, abstract results Population per Illegitimate birth Donations to the poor Population per Suicide I 17 large color plates (56 × 39 cm): 8 4 51 55 22 17 17 43 13 I 3 26 37 58 62 56 7 12 43 data for France (1825–1855), England 48 49
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