DOCSLIB.ORG

Hurricane Chris

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Hurricane Chris eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Chris Information from NHC Advisory 19, 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 11, 2018 Chris has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion with additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little today or tonight. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to weaken and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or earlier. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 315 miles E of Cape Hatteras Speed: (category 2) Land: North Carolina Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 970 mb Coordinates: 35.3 N, 69.9 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NE or 50 degrees at 22 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Chris remaining well off the U.S. Coast as it moves to the northeast through Thursday; then threatening Newfoundland Canada early on Friday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Chris’ forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated amounts of 6 inches (150 mm). These rains may cause flash flooding. ■ Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Forecast Track for Hurricane Chris Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Chris TD TS © Copyright 2018 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Hurricane Chris. However, interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this system. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2018 Atlantic Season to Date 2018 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2018 Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2018 2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 07/11/18) 3 2 0 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2018 2017 year to date (1/1/17 – 07/11/17) 3 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4 2018 CSU season forecasts 11 4 1 TS Chris (Colorado State University at Jul 2,‘18) TS Beryl HU Chris HU Beryl 2018 NOAA season forecasts 10-16 5-9 1-4 TS Alberto (NOAA/CPC at May24, 2018) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2018 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity The graph above shows 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Chris is the third named storm and second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw three named storms - Arlene, average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It Bret, and Cindy - by July 11, but no hurricanes until August 09. shows, for example, that Chris became the season’s third named storm on July 08. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season The main area of disturbed weather associated with the remnants of Beryl is Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both located just to the east of the Bahamas. This system has is not showing any peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining signs of development, and the chances of regeneration today or tomorrow percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 11 is 97% for all remain low. However, conditions could become a little more favorable later in hurricanes and 99% for major hurricanes. the week while the disturbance moves northward over the Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Hurricane and Tropical Storm
    State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
    FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book.
    [Show full text]
  • Packery Channel Restoration Still on Hold
    Inside the Moon Sandcastle Run A2 Biz Briefs A3 Stuff I Heard A5 Fishing A11 Issue 894 The 27° 37' 0.5952'' N | 97° 13' 21.4068'' W Island Free The voiceMoon of The Island since 1996 June 3, 2021 Weekly www.islandmoon.com FREE Photo by Evelyn Pless-Schuberth Around The Island Memorial Day From the Air Return By Dale Rankin The consensus among long-time of the Islanders seems to be that we have never seen as many people on our beaches as we saw last weekend. When the weather broke the crowds Litter turned out in a hurry and the driving conditions on the beach south of Beach Access Road 6 meant that very few beachgoers to could make their Critter! View Sunday looking north toward Newport Pass way down there. For a while Sunday View from Newport Pass looking south, Packery The return of the long-gone Litter afternoon the beach there looked from Packery Channel. Channel Jetties are at the top of the photo. Critter is at hand! like a used car lot as a long line of vehicles were stuck in the soft sand. The inability of drivers to use that part of the beach pushed everyone north packing the beaches there. There have been ongoing discussions for years about removing vehicles from the beach along the Michael J. Ellis Seawall but last weekend there would have been nowhere to park them except on Windward. There The City of Corpus Christi is renewed talk at city hall about announced Wednesday that The the need for a beach renourishment Critter will arrive on Padre Island on project to widen the beach but the Saturday, June 5 and to Flour Bluff problem is that the consultants hired July 10.
    [Show full text]
  • Port Aransas
    Inside the Moon Fun in the Sun A2 Canal Clean-up A4 Traveling Moon A9 Art Fest A16 Live Music A18 Issue 737 The Photo by Steve Coons Island Free The voiceMoon of The Island since 1996 May 31, 2018 Weekly www.islandmoon.com FREE Around The 8000 Kemp’s Ridley Turtles Predictions Island for Hurricane By Dale Rankin Season 2018 So far it’s been a bit of a strange in One Day! season here on our little sandbar Active season much with two of the four major tourist invasions behind us but the High Active season much like 2017 like 2017 100 Day Season is only a week old. By Dale Rankin Spring Break 2018 repeated the pattern of spring breaks past with full As the Coastal Bend continues to beaches and roads jammed from the dig out after Hurricane Harvey we ferry landings in Port A to Flour Bluff plow right into Hurricane Season Drive. 2018 with predictions from three of the most-followed predictors calling Memorial Day saw packed beaches for an average to above-average and some traffic backups, to Flour season. An average hurricane season Bluff Drive on Saturday and Sunday. produces 12 named storms, of which But a drive up State Highway 361 six become hurricanes, including early Sunday afternoon found very three major hurricanes. light traffic up the Landing Strip between Padre and Port A and light The National Oceanic and traffic on the streets in Port Aransas. Atmospheric Organization’s (NOAA) hurricane forecast was But there was something different released this week predicting 10- about this year’s Memorial Day and 16 named storms between June 1 it’s a pattern we’ve seen for a couple of and November 30, 2018 with five of years, maybe exacerbated by the lack those reaching hurricane-force winds of hotel space in both Port Aransas of 75 mph or higher, and one to four and on Padre Island.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Chris's Eye Stares at NASA's Aqua Satellite 11 July 2018
    Hurricane Chris's eye stares at NASA's Aqua satellite 11 July 2018 light. Infrared light provides scientists with temperature data and that's important when trying to understand how strong storms can be. The higher the cloud tops, the colder and the stronger they are. So infrared light as that gathered by the AIRS instrument can identify the strongest sides of a tropical cyclone. AIRS detected strongest storms in a thick band around the eye, and in large, fragmented bands of thunderstorms north and east of the center. All of those area revealed cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability to produce heavy rainfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 AIRS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite passed miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- over Hurricane Chris on July 11 at 2:17 a.m. EDT (0617 force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 UTC) and analyzed the storm in infrared light. AIRS km). found strongest storms in a thick band around the eye, and in large, fragmented bands of thunderstorms north Heavy Rains Expected in Newfoundland, Ocean and east of the center with cloud top temperatures as Swells Along the U.S. East Coast cold as -63F/-53C. Credit: NASA JPL/Heidar Thrastarson NHC cautioned that ocean swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic When NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
    eVENT Willis Research Network Hurricane Season Outlook 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: July 20, 2018 This seasonal forecast briefing is the second in this season’s series, released as new information becomes available. In this briefing, we provide an update on how the season appears to be shaping up. Current situation Since our early season outlook, we saw an active July with Hurricanes Beryl and Chris. Hurricane Beryl developed from a pulse of energy tracking East to West across the tropical North Atlantic, known as a tropical wave. Environmental conditions allowed Beryl to attain category 1 wind speeds for a short while before decaying under unfavorable conditions. Yet Beryl’s remnants persisted and put on a final show of energy, briefly becoming a subtropical storm near Bermuda. Hurricane Chris tapped into the warm waters of the Gulf-stream off the Eastern seaboard and rapidly intensified to a category 2 hurricane before zipping up to Newfoundland where it brought moderate rains and winds. Given the active start to the season, what levels of hurricane activity can we expect this year? There are currently no tropical disturbances to keep an eye on, but as the Atlantic follows its annual warming trend into the summer, what can we expect? Forecasts The most recently updated forecasts available from two of the major forecasting centers are summarized in Table 1. Since late May the developing El Niño has come into focus and is now more likely to materialize this summer than it was in late May. Cooler than normal waters also persist across the North Atlantic.
    [Show full text]
  • A Continental Shelf Bottom Boundary Layer Model
    A CONTINENTAL SHELF BOTTOM BOUNDARY LAYER MODEL: DEVELOPMENT, CALIBRATION AND APPLICATIONS TO SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BIGHT by RICHARD BRENT STYLES A Dissertation submitted to the Graduate School-New Brunswick Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Oceanography written under the direction of Scott M. Glenn and approved by New Brunswick, New Jersey May 1998 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. OMI Number: 9900705 UMI Microform 9900705 Copyright 1998, by UMI Company. Ail rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION A Continental Shelf Bottom Boundary Layer Model: Development, Calibration and Applications to Sediment Transport in the Middle Atlantic Bight by RICHARD BRENT STYLES Dissertation Director: Scott M. Glenn A continental shelf bottom boundary layer model is presented for use over a non- cohesive movable sediment bed. Model features include a continuous eddy viscosity, a correction for suspended sediment-induced stratification and improved bottom roughness and reference concentration models. Predicted concentration and current profiles are sensitive to changes in selected internal model parameters and grain size. High-resolution current and concentration profile data collected simultaneously over a 6-week summer deployment in 1995 off the southern coast of New Jersey are used to calibrated sensitive model coefficients and to determine the accuracy of the model at predicting the shear velocity and hydrodynamic roughness.
    [Show full text]
  • Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 1871-1993: an Historical Survey, the Only Books Or Reports Exclu- Sively on Florida Hurricanes Were R.W
    3. 2b -.I 3 Contents List of Tables, Figures, and Plates, ix Foreword, xi Preface, xiii Chapter 1. Introduction, 1 Chapter 2. Historical Discussion of Florida Hurricanes, 5 1871-1900, 6 1901-1930, 9 1931-1960, 16 1961-1990, 24 Chapter 3. Four Years and Billions of Dollars Later, 36 1991, 36 1992, 37 1993, 42 1994, 43 Chapter 4. Allison to Roxanne, 47 1995, 47 Chapter 5. Hurricane Season of 1996, 54 Appendix 1. Hurricane Preparedness, 56 Appendix 2. Glossary, 61 References, 63 Tables and Figures, 67 Plates, 129 Index of Named Hurricanes, 143 Subject Index, 144 About the Authors, 147 Tables, Figures, and Plates Tables, 67 1. Saffir/Simpson Scale, 67 2. Hurricane Classification Prior to 1972, 68 3. Number of Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, and Combined Total Storms by 10-Year Increments, 69 4. Florida Hurricanes, 1871-1996, 70 Figures, 84 l A-I. Great Miami Hurricane 2A-B. Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane 3A-C.Great Labor Day Hurricane 4A-C. Hurricane Donna 5. Hurricane Cleo 6A-B. Hurricane Betsy 7A-C. Hurricane David 8. Hurricane Elena 9A-C. Hurricane Juan IOA-B. Hurricane Kate 1 l A-J. Hurricane Andrew 12A-C. Hurricane Albert0 13. Hurricane Beryl 14A-D. Hurricane Gordon 15A-C. Hurricane Allison 16A-F. Hurricane Erin 17A-B. Hurricane Jerry 18A-G. Hurricane Opal I9A. 1995 Hurricane Season 19B. Five 1995 Storms 20. Hurricane Josephine , Plates, X29 1. 1871-1880 2. 1881-1890 Foreword 3. 1891-1900 4. 1901-1910 5. 1911-1920 6. 1921-1930 7. 1931-1940 These days, nothing can escape the watchful, high-tech eyes of the National 8.
    [Show full text]
  • HURRICANE CHRIS (AL032018) 6–12 July 2018
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE CHRIS (AL032018) 6–12 July 2018 Eric S. Blake National Hurricane Center 14 December 2018 VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE CHRIS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA AT 1735 UTC 10 JULY 2018 Chris moved slowly offshore of the east coast of the United States as a tropical storm for a few days before intensifying to a category two hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) as it headed northeastward out of sea. Hurricane Chris 2 Hurricane Chris 6–12 JULY 2018 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Chris originated from a frontal system that moved offshore of the northeast coast of the United States on 29 June. The system headed slowly southeastward for the next couple of days, producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from near Bermuda northeastward for several hundred miles, and the surface front dissipated over the warm Atlantic waters by 2 July. On that day, a large middle- to upper-level low formed north of Bermuda and moved southwestward beneath a strengthening ridge over eastern North America. This evolution caused the remnants of the front to move southward, with the cloud shield contracting noticeably on the north side, and by 3 July the system was situated just southeast of Bermuda. A new upper- level disturbance invigorated deep convection over the system on that day and although the convection did not persist, a broad surface low formed late on 4 July and moved westward. The low became well defined on the next day, but thunderstorm activity was minimal at times near the center.
    [Show full text]
  • Memorial Day 2020
    Inside the Moon Around The Islands A2 School's Out A2 The Big Dig A5 Marker 37's New Look A9 Issue 841 The 27° 37' 0.5952'' N | 97° 13' 21.4068'' W Photo bySteve Coons Island Free The voiceMoon of The Island since 1996 May 28, 2020 Weekly www.islandmoon.com FREE Around The Dr. Donna Island Memorial Day 2020 By Dale Rankin Shaver is a The Weekly Island Power Outage waited for the weekend this week and Final Finalist it didn’t take a driver running into a utility pole, or gravity getting the better of a power line. It was just the for “Sammie” wind and rain that hit us two nights in a row and brought some much needed Award rain our way. On the police beat this week Noise Ordinance Complaints Needs Islanders are down, car wrecks and Assaults are up with Suspicious Person calls Bob Hall Pier Michael J. Ellis Beach support to win holding steady. By Maureen Hurlow It was a weekend to stay away from the beach and the JFK Causeway Each year the and head for the Ski Basin. The rain Sammie awards turned the parking area under the JFK (“Sammies”) into a big lake and the fisherpersons are awarded to just parked their trailers in it anyway. honor members of the federal For the past several weeks the government parking area around the JFK Bridge workforce, has been jammed even during highlighting weekdays with boat trailers and the work of Dr. Donna trucks as people launch there. The employees Shaver city currently has $1.5 million in Island beaches from Port Aransas to Padre National Seashore were jammed over the Memorial Day Weekend with making bond money but no design yet for traffic on the JFK Causeway backed up all the Way to Oso Bay on Saturday.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) Over the North Atlantic Ocean: a Multiscale Investigation of Predictability
    MARCH 2019 M A I E R - G E R B E R E T A L . 951 Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multiscale Investigation of Predictability MICHAEL MAIER-GERBER Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany MICHAEL RIEMER Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany ANDREAS H. FINK AND PETER KNIPPERTZ Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany ENRICO DI MUZIO Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, and Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany RON MCTAGGART-COWAN Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada (Manuscript received 23 May 2018, in final form 1 January 2019) ABSTRACT Tropical cyclones that evolve from a nontropical origin and undergo tropical transition (TT) play a prominent role in cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic Ocean. They pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multiscale cascade of atmospheric processes. Here we use operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble predictions to investigate the TT of North Atlantic Hurricane Chris (2012), whose formation was preceded by the merger of two potential vorticity (PV) maxima, eventually resulting in the cyclone- inducing PV streamer. The principal goal is to elucidate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the predictability of Chris’s cyclogenesis and subsequent TT. Dynamic time warping is applied to identify ensemble tracks that are similar to the analysis track. This technique permits small temporal and spatial shifts in the development.
    [Show full text]