eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Chris Information from NHC Advisory 19, 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 11, 2018 Chris has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion with additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little today or tonight. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to weaken and become a strong post-tropical by Thursday night or earlier.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 315 miles E of Speed: (category 2) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 970 mb Coordinates: 35.3 N, 69.9 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NE or 50 degrees at 22 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Chris remaining well off the U.S. Coast as it moves to the northeast through Thursday; then threatening Newfoundland Canada early on Friday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Chris’ forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated amounts of 6 inches (150 mm). These rains may cause flash flooding. ■ Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and conditions.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Chris Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Chris

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Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect for Hurricane Chris. However, interests along the coast of North Carolina and in should monitor the progress of this system.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2018 Atlantic Season to Date 2018 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 12 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2018 Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2018 2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 07/11/18) 3 2 0 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2018

2017 year to date (1/1/17 – 07/11/17) 3 0 0 8

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4

2018 CSU season forecasts 11 4 1 TS Chris (Colorado State University at Jul 2,‘18) TS Beryl HU Chris HU Beryl 2018 NOAA season forecasts 10-16 5-9 1-4 TS Alberto (NOAA/CPC at May24, 2018) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2018 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Chris is the third named storm and second hurricane of the 2018 The graph above shows 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It Atlan tic Hurricane Season. Last year saw three named storms - Arlene, Bret, and Cindy - by July 11, but no hurricanes until August 09. shows, for example, that Chris became the season’s third named storm on July 08. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season The main area of disturbed weather associated with the remnants of Beryl is Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both located just to the east of the Bahamas. This system has is not showing any peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining signs of development, and the chances of regeneration today or tomorrow percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 11 is 97% for all remain low. However, conditions could become a little more favorable later in hurricanes and 99% for major hurricanes. the week while the disturbance moves northward over the Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the . * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us

Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai

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