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Israel's Knife-Edge Election Raises Prospect of Unity Coalition

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Israel's Knife-Edge Election Raises Prospect of Unity Coalition News Israel's knife-edge election raises prospect of unity coalition By Calev Ben-David, Bloomberg News JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says there's no way he'll team up with his main challenger in a national unity government after the March 17 election. Rival Isaac Herzog won't even discuss the option. Not so fast, analysts say. With Netanyahu's Likud and Herzog's Labor-led Zionist Union polling close in most surveys, and each falling far short of a parliamentary majority, a coalition yoking the two may be the most logical -- and least painful -- option for both. "Despite the campaign rhetoric, one minute after the polls close we'll be in a new reality" that may leave the two main contenders with little opportunity to form a stable government except with each other, said Yehuda Ben-Meir, senior fellow at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies. In most recent polls, Netanyahu, 65, emerges better positioned than Herzog, 54, to form a coalition with parties who share his reluctance to make peace with the Palestinians. Such a government, though, would be vulnerable to pressures from smaller factions that take even more hard-line positions than Netanyahu on peacemaking, increasing tensions with Israel's staunchest ally, the U.S. "If Netanyahu forms a unity government, it's a clear sign he wants to take a more pragmatic approach, move forward on peace with the Palestinians, and mend fences with the Obama administration," Ben-Meir said. No Israeli party has ever won enough seats to govern alone, and the country has had about a half-dozen national unity governments before. One such coalition was formed on the eve of the 1967 Middle East war. An election stalemate in 1984 yielded a tie- up between Likud and Herzog's Labor party, the dominant member of the Zionist Union bloc. While a unity government might signal pragmatism to some, it would be fraught with its own risks. In the past, such coalitions have been dubbed "national paralysis governments" because partners have been unable to bridge gaps to govern together effectively. The last two polls published on Tuesday show Zionist Union winning 24 or 25 of parliament's 120 seats to Likud's 21. A key player in deciding whether the election will produce a Likud-Zionist Union alliance will be Israeli President Reuven Rivlin, who will designate which party leader gets the first opportunity to try to form a new government. Rivlin has said privately that he will call on Netanyahu and Herzog to team up if the election fails to provide either with a clear option for a broad coalition, Channel 2 television reported Sunday. Proposing a unity government "is one possibility among many possibilities, depending on the election results," Rivlin spokesman Jason Pearlman said, declining to comment further. A unity government isn't popular with a deeply divided electorate, according to a poll for Army Radio released Monday. The survey found 53 percent opposed to a Likud- Zionist Union coalition, 23 percent in favor and 24 percent with no preference. The Shiluv poll questioned 506 Israelis and had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. One place where a unity government would be welcomed is the White House, which has criticized Netanyahu over his March 3 address to Congress assailing President Barack Obama's Iran policy. The unusually harsh remarks were meant in part to warn Israeli voters that U.S.-Israel ties would be more fragile under another Netanyahu-led coalition than under a more centrist government, according to a U.S. official. Netanyahu has said he won't hook up with Herzog and his Zionist Union co-leader, former justice minister and chief negotiator Tzipi Livni, who was fired from the cabinet in December for questioning government policies. Such a partnership "will not happen, because there is a deep ideological rift between us," he wrote on his Facebook page last month. Herzog has been more oblique, telling reporters he won't discuss the subject because he's certain he'll form the next government. Aside from the Palestinian issue, Likud and Zionist Union have also clashed on economic and social policy, with Herzog faulting Netanyahu for not providing affordable housing and cutting living costs more. The economy, which grew its slowest last year since 2009, has been a key issue in the campaign, especially housing prices, which have almost doubled in the past seven years while wages have risen 21 percent. "Herzog will face strong opposition within his party ranks to joining with Netanyahu in forming a government, and the only way I see that happening is if they agree on rotating in the prime minister's seat," Ben-Meir said. The only precedent for that is the 1984 unity government, where Labor leader Shimon Peres served as premier for two years, then switched cabinet seats with then-Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, who headed Likud. In 2009 Netanyahu refused to accept a similar arrangement with Livni, whose Kadima party had won one more parliamentary seat than Likud, and he eventually formed a coalition without her. Despite the tensions and ideological differences, pollster Rafi Smith, whose latest survey has Likud and Zionist Union tied at 24 seats, doesn't rule out a Likud-Zionist Union alliance. He speculates that Netanyahu will first try to form a narrow coalition, and then invite Herzog to become a junior partner. Herzog, whose party hasn't governed since 2001, will bite, he predicted. "I think Herzog will go for it at the end of the day," said Smith. _ With assistance from John Walcott and Jonathan Allen in Washington. Copyright © 2015, Chicago Tribune http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-news-bc-israel11-20150311-story.html .
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