Robert Eller Associates, Inc

Robert Eller Associates, Inc. CONSULTANTS TO THE PLASTICS AND RUBBER INDUSTRIES TECHNICAL / ECONOMIC / MARKET ANALYSIS & MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ____________________________________________________________________ 4000 Embassy Parkway · Suite 230 · Akron, OH 44333-8328 USA Phone 330-670-9566 / Fax 330-670-9844 E-mail: [email protected] / Home Page: http://www.robertellerassoc.com/ NAIAS SUMMARY NOTES PLASTICS AT THE 2004 DETROIT AUTOMOTIVE SHOW PREPARED FOR: REA CLIENTS FEBRUARY 2004 CONTENTS PAGE 1. INTRODUCTION . 4 2. GENERAL AUTOMOTIVE OBSERVATIONS . 6 3. PLASTICS OBSERVATIONS . 10 4. MINI VEHICLE DATABASE . 15 APPENDIX A – ABBREVIATIONS APPENDIX B – PHOTOS re/mydox/NAIAS/NAIAS 2004A.doc 2 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT NO. TITLE PAGE 3-1 PLASTIC TRENDS AT THE 2004 DETROIT AUTO SHOW . 12 3-2 LIGHTING DEVELOPMENTS AT THE DETROIT AUTO SHOW . 14 4-1 MINI DATABASE OF 2004 DETROIT AUTO SHOW VEHICLES . 16 3 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. 1. INTRODUCTION Several REA staff members previewed the 2004 Detroit Auto Show (NAIAS) to: - Identify new autoplastic trends among the forty-eight new models introduced by the N. American OEMs - Identify vehicle trends affecting the autoplastics sector - Examine European and Japanese autoplastic technologies transferred to N. America - Test the accuracy of the near term forecasts in our recently published Automotive Interior Trim multi-client study (see REA Web Site, robertellerassoc.com, for prospectus). The objective of this document prepared for REA soft trim and general plastics clients is to provide a summary of our observations and a reference guide for identifying autoplastic trends and visualizing their current use (see photos in Appendix B). In Chapter 2, we have summarized our general observations on vehicle trends from the perspective of the autoplastics supplier. We have attempted to avoid the generalizations that are extensively presented in the automotive and financial press such as: - The counter-attack by NAFTA Big 3 focused on the car sector - The Big 3 lag in platform consolidation - The Japanese emerging presence in trucks - The loss of Big 3 market share and profits - Toyota’s movement into the #2 position in NAFTA (depending upon how one counts) - Influence of incentives - Shortening (to five years) of the Japanese model life cycle (vs. seven years for N. American models) - Growth of China - The entry by European Tier 1s (Antolin, Faurecia, etc.) - The growth of high volume shared platforms - 42 volt architecture - Modular construction trends (see REA Soft Trim multi-client study for analysis of implications) - Hybrids - etc. 4 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. Our observations on autoplastic trends are detailed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents a mini (e.g., partial) database of what we perceive to be the more interesting vehicles from the autoplastics perspective. Appendix A is a list of abbreviations used in this report. Appendix B presents selected photos and associated REA comments intended to illustrate specific autoplastic concepts and trends. REA soft trim multi-client subscribers will hopefully find this an informative and illustrative companion to the multi-client study. Non-subscribers may view the prospectus for the REA soft trim multi-client study and our in-process nonwovens study on our Web Site: www.robertellerassoc.com 5 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. 2. GENERAL AUTOMOTIVE OBSERVATIONS Return of the North American Car -- The widely hyped commitment by the N. American Big 3 to focus on the car sector after ten years of favoring the highly profitable light truck sector will have a range of implications for automotive plastics. The Ford 500, Pontiac Solstice and Chevy Cobalt are excellent examples of this. The “European look” favored by GM, which benchmarks the fit and finish of high end European interiors (such as the Audi A4) combined with intense price pressures from the OEMs will have the following effects: - Encourage the use of backmolding techniques for ABC pillar covers European molders are bringing their “Hinterspritzen” technology to the U.S. This will cause knitted fabric suppliers to benefit. - Hard (e.g., “unskinned”) will continue to gain share of the instrument panel and door trim sector. This will continue to support the trend toward high quality molded-in color polypropylene instrument panels. - Closer fitting interior and exterior panels for a more refined look in instrument panels and door trim medallions. This will encourage the use of processes capable of achieving new fit and finish tolerances. The Johnson Controls CrafTec process is one example. - A general awareness (reflected by substantial investment) of the need for improved interior quality, fit/finish and materials quality. Muscle Cars -- Despite the emergence of hybrids, muscle cars are back again at this year’s NAIAS. Some examples are the: - 2005 Corvette (400 hp) - Re-designed retro look Mustang GT (close to 500 hp) - Dodge SRT-10 (500 hp Viper engine) - Dodge Durango (pushrod Hemi V-8, 5.7 liter engine) - Pontiac GTO and G6. Rear Wheel Drive -- is re-entering the market, especially at DCX (examples: Chrysler 300c, Dodge Magnum). All Wheel Drive (AWD) -- is emerging as an option on N. American cars (example: Ford 500). Continuously Variable Transmissions -- CVTs are finally entering the N. American market (example: Ford Freestyle). 6 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. Hybrids -- offerings are widening and entering a second phase of development with offerings from Toyota (generation II), Lexus (RX 330), Ford (delayed launch of the Escape hybrid version in mid 2004), and GM GMT-based versions. Diesel Engines -- The U.S. fuel taxing structure has not supported a major difference between gas and diesel prices. Meanwhile, European engine makers have developed fast, quiet, cleaner diesels. VW will be among the European carmakers to begin pushing diesels in their U.S. offerings. Front-end Systems -- Bumper fascia are getting larger, not only because of the increased proliferation of SUVs and new crossovers (e.g., 2005 Ford Freestyle), but because the fascia are being extended upward into the hood and rearward into the fender region. Good news for TPO suppliers. Overhang continued to be reduced to achieve a “European” look (e.g., Pontiac G6). This puts increased emphasis on molding precision, lower CLTE TPO grades, and energy absorption designs. It also increases the performance requirements for plastic front-end module (FEM) designs that are proliferating in Europe (e.g., VW/Audi, Volvo and BMW) but have not yet been accepted by North American OEMs. The 2005 Mustang appears to be running counter to this trend toward closer bumper fascia designs (see photo in Appendix B). Acoustics -- This was the year of promoting acoustic performance and the quiet cabin (see 2005 Mustang and Chevy Cobalt). Acoustics materials (lightweight fiber mats, PU foams, metal/plastic laminates) are getting more sophisticated and often lighter than the traditional regenerated fiber “shoddy” mats that they replace (see analysis in REA soft trim multi-client study). Tailored, Higher Quality Interiors -- Surface variety and quality are increasing in N. American interiors. Good news for suppliers of decorative films (wood grain, metallic, carbon fiber-look), metallic insert technology, and bezels that proliferate on many new models (e.g., Infiniti G35 console/door handles, Pontiac Bonneville door medallions). OEMs are offering this enhanced range as part of their personalized interiors approach (Mustang instrument panel, others). Improved interiors are claimed for a variety of N. American vehicles: - Dodge Durango - Ford Mustang - Chevy Cobalt. Fit and Finish -- After several years of benchmarking German models (especially Audi for interiors), the N. American OEMs are promoting their fit and finish, especially for the gaps between panels (1 mm for interiors and 3.5 mm for exteriors). An example is the Chevrolet Cobalt (see photos in Appendix B). 7 Robert Eller Associates, Inc. The Floor -- Acoustics isolation is among the many functions of the floor sandwich. Lightweight fiber acoustic mat constructions from Rieter, Lear, Pelzer, Collins & Aikman and Faurecia are entering the acoustic portion of the floor module and reducing the weight traditionally used for heavy layer. The advent of third-row seating in SUVs and vans and increased share for “tall cars” create a space below the seat for a variety of functions (seat stowage, spare tire/tools, cargo storage). A broad range of designs for clever folding load floor, spare tire covers, and flat floor designs are evolving to create a new market for 3-5 layer semi-structural laminates behind the third row (see photos in Appendix B). This creates a lively intermaterials competition between: - Carpet vs. nonwovens; tufted carpet growing in higher end models - EPP foams (starting in Europe at Mercedes, Acura RSX, several tool kits) vs. PU foams - Extruded sheet foams vs. foam-in-place - Lightweight glass fiber/PP constructions (e.g., from Quadrant and Azdel) - Blow molded vs. injection molded PP (usually talc-filled). Current North American models often use a simple hardboard spare tire cover with a loose carpet on the surface (e.g., Ford Freestyle). Trunk surface coverings and the underlying rigid components are currently based on separate components. REA believes these components will be combined into a single, large, molded “trunk module” combining surfacing (carpet or nonwoven), semi-structural function, acoustic function, energy absorption (e.g., to meet the recent European “beer crate” legislation), stowage, and eventually the vehicle floor (probably a composite such as the Faurecia composite floor concepts). The rollout floor, introduced two years ago, will likely penetrate smaller, sporty models like the Chevy Nomad (still a concept but likely headed for production). See the floor module photos in Appendix B. Japanese in the Truck Sector -- The Japanese entry into the truck sector brings a range of new technologies. (The market is 2.3MM vehicles dominated [96%] by the domestic Big 3): - Nissan’s Titan King Cab offers Rear hinged doors (also on the Mazda RX8 coupe; see photos in Appendix B), A spray-on bed liner.

Load more