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Aldar Properties PJSC June 26, 2008 Aldar Properties PJSC June 26, 2008 INITIATING COVERAGE Leading the way Buy Share Data Aldar Properties PJSC (Aldar) is the leading real estate company in Abu Market Cap AED 31.6 bn Dhabi with a large land bank of 34.9 mn sqm. Already the biggest property Price AED 12.60 developer in Abu Dhabi in terms of market capitalisation, land bank, and ADX 4,960.0 development projects, we believe Aldar’s focus on the fast growing domestic real estate market should result in significant shareholder value. Reuters ALDR.AD As the Company works closely with the government, we believe it will Bloomberg ALDAR UH benefit significantly from the real estate boom and further economic Avg. Volume (52 Week) 18.7 mn diversification of the domestic economy. The Company’s strategy to hold 52-Week High/Low AED 13.65 / 5.85 most of its developments in the office, retail and leisure segment as investment properties also provides excellent revenue visibility. We initiate Shares Outstanding 2,506.8 coverage on the stock with a Buy rating. Fair Value Estimate AED 15.5 Key Figures Abu Dhabi real estate market: fundamentally strong and set for growth Year to 31 Dec 2007 2008 A late entrant to the regional real estate boom, the Abu Dhabi property market is enjoying exceptionally strong traction across its entire segment - Revenue (mn) 1,226.8 6,862.2 residential, retail, commercial and hospitality. Buoyed by high oil prices, Gross Profit (mn) 560.0 3,620.5 the country’s economy is one of the fastest growing in the region. The EBIT (mn) 157.9 1,734.6 continued shortage of all types of property, occupancy rates above 90%, Net Profit (mn) 1,941.3 3,721.2 estimated population growth of around 6% - 7% p.a., rising per capita income, and an accumulation of demand over the past five years have EPS (AED) 0.78 1.27 persuaded the government to initiate new property legislation allowing GPM (%) 45.6% 52.8% UAE nationals and foreigners to purchase property and focus on the RoA (%) 14.0% 11.6% development of the sector. RoE (%) 35.4% 36.4% Major beneficiary of the Emirate’s economic transformation policy P / E (x) 17.0x 10.4x The Company has emerged as a key beneficiary of Government efforts to P / BV (x) 3.8x 2.6x gradually deregulate the real estate sector in Abu Dhabi. The Company Shareholding Pattern (%) received its entire land bank from the Government (except for Al Jimi Mall) without consideration. The Abu Dhabi government intends to diversify the Mubadala Development Company 15.9 economy further and to reduce its dependence on oil and gas by Public & Others 84.1 emphasising construction, tourism, and hospitality industry activities along with real estate. As the Abu Dhabi government owns an indirect stake of 25% in Aldar, we believe the Company holds an important position in the Relative Performance Government’s development plans and is likely to benefit significantly from the targeted economic transformation of the Emirate. 16.0 12.0 Despite the share price run-up, we still see significant upside potential Aldar’s share price has gained almost 87% over the past year, reaching a 8.0 52-week high of AED 13.65 on June 16, 2008. At the current market price, 4.0 the stock stands at a 2008 P/E of 10.4x based on our forecasts, a 0.0 significant discount to its peer group average of 12.8x. Our fair value estimate of AED 15.5 per share implies an upside potential Jul-07 Apr-08 Oct-07 Jan-08 Jun-07 Jun-08 Aug-07 Feb-08 Sep-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 May-08 of 23% from the current stock price. Rebased Index ALDAR ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC ADCB Wealth Management Group I Research I +97126973525 | [email protected] 1 Valuation We have used a combination of Net Asset Value (NAV), Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Peer-based Multiples to value Aldar Properties. We have assigned subjective weights of 70% to our NAV, 20% to our DCF and 10% to our Peer-based Multiple Valuations to calculate our fair value estimate of AED 15.5 per share, a premium of 23% to the current share price. Consequently, we initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Weighted average value per share Valuation Method Value (AED) Weight (%) Net Asset Value (NAV) 15.6 70% Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 14.8 20% Peer-based Multiple Valuation 16.2 10% Weighted average fair value 15.5 100% Source: ADCB research Value per Value Value as a NAV Calculation share (AED mn) % of NAV (AED) Sale of Properties Plot Sales 7,420 2.24 14.3% Residential Properties 6,314 1.91 12.2% Recurring Revenue Stream Residential Properties 645 0.19 1.2% Commercial Properties 4,894 1.48 9.5% Retail Properties 4,181 1.26 8.1% Hotel 497 0.15 1.0% Projects not included above (CBRE Valuation) Yas Island 19,089 5.76 36.9% Abraj Towers 33 0.01 0.1% Al Raha Beach - 14% of Phase II 2,261 0.68 4.4% Associates and JVs 289 0.09 0.6% Enterprise Value 45,623 Less: Debt (2008) 12,780 Add: Cash (2008) 18,889 Outstanding number of shares - diluted 3,312 Estimated Net Asset Value 51,732 15.62 100.0% Source: ADCB research ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC ADCB Wealth Management Group I Research I +97126973525 | [email protected] 2 Net Asset Value Method We have calculated the NAV of the Company based on estimated discounted cash flows from completed and ongoing development projects of the Company. We have estimated the selling price or rental income per sqm and the cost of construction in order to measure expected cash flows from projects. We have assumed a time lag between the time when construction starts on a project and the point at which it begins to contribute to revenues, taking account of the expected development period. Our key assumptions used in this method are as follows: We have valued all projects for which development plans are available and excluded projects at either concept development or pre-construction stages. Accordingly, we have not included Noor Al Ain (expansion of Al Jimi Mall) and Mina Zayed as they are at pre-construction stages. We have relied on CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) valuations for developments such as Yas Island, Aldar’s largest project and part of Phase II of Al Raha Beach, pending the release of further details on these projects. We have estimated the value of recurring revenue-generating properties such as Al Mamoura, Diabetes Centre, and Al Jimi Mall using Net Operating Income (NOI) and Capitalisation rates. We have incorporated investments in unquoted associates and joint ventures (JVs) (not included under project valuation) at their book value. Sale of plots and properties We have estimated the present value of expected cash flows from the sale of projects to arrive at an NAV of AED 13.7bn or AED 4.15 per share. The NPV resulting from the sale of projects forms 26.5% of our estimated total NAV of which land sales comprise 14.3 percentages points and sale of properties 12.2 percentage points. Our key assumptions are as follows: We have used a WACC of 10.33% to estimate the net present value of projects. We have considered separate capital values for different projects ranging between AED 9,750 and AED 16,000 with annual growth rate of 10% during 2009, falling to 5% from 2011. We estimate that the Company will sell approximately 3.3 mn sqm of land plots (out of a total area of 7.9 mn sqm) in Al Raha Beach by 2011. ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC ADCB Wealth Management Group I Research I +97126973525 | [email protected] 3 Recurring revenue stream Residential properties We have calculated rental income from those residential units which are expected to be leased out. Residential leases contribute AED 645mn to our estimated NAV. We have made the following assumptions in estimating the NAV from these projects: An occupancy rate of 90% and an estimated terminal value based on a capitalisation rate of 7%. Rentals of around AED 1,100-1,600 per sqm for residential properties. Conservative rental increases of 5% p.a. from 2010. Commercial and Retail properties We expect commercial properties to yield a value of AED 1.5 per share or 9.5% of our estimated NAV. On the other hand, we believe retail properties will contribute AED 1.3 per share or 8.1% of our NAV. We have made the following assumptions for the retail and commercial portfolio of the Company: For Commercial and retail projects, average rental rates of between AED 1,500 - AED 3,000 per sqm, except for Al Jimi Mall and Al Ruwais Shopping Mall where we have used average rentals of around AED 700 per sqm. An occupancy rate of 90% for all retail and commercial properties and a capitalization rate of 7%. Hospitality, Hotels and Resorts We expect investments in hospitality, hotels and resorts to contribute AED 497mn to our estimated NAV. We have incorporated the following assumptions in our NAV model: An average room rate of AED 500 for three-star hotels, AED 800 for four-star hotels and AED 900-1,000 for five-star hotels and hotels in Al Raha Beach. We have assumed a rate of AED 1,500 for all suite hotels in Coconut Island and Al Gurm Resort. A non-room revenue to room revenue ratio of 60%.
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