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Aldar Properties (ALDR.AD) Aldar Properties (ALDR.AD) Equity Research Initial Coverage July 9th 2007 Current Price: AED 7.69 Country: United Arab Emirates Fair value Target: AED 13.68 Sector: Real Estate Recommendation: BUY Exchange: Abu Dhabi Securities Market Sector Coverage Team • Aldar Properties (Aldar) is the leading real estate developer in Abu Dhabi, with more than AED 200 bn worth of developments planned for the next ten years and a land bank Roy Cherry with over 34 mn sqm. Its major master developments include: Al Raha Gardens, Al Raha +9714 3199 767 Beach and Yas Island. Aldar develops properties for sale and for its investment property [email protected] portfolio in all key real estate market segments. In addition, the company plans to begin land sales this year out of its vast land bank. Lara Hourani +9714 3199 687 • The Abu Dhabi real estate market is regarded as one of the fastest growing in the [email protected] region, fuelled by: strong economic growth, one of the highest GDP per capita figures in the world, an estimated population growth rate of 7%, continued shortage in property supply across all major market segments, pent-up demand accumulating for the last five years and new property legislations allowing expatriates who constitute an estimated 80% of the population to purchase leasehold property with 99 year renewable leasehold contract. • We initiate coverage on Aldar with a BUY recommendation. Our fair value target of AED 13.68 per share (based on full conversion of outstanding convertible bonds) implies an 78% upside potential to the current price of AED 7.69 per share. Our fair value is based on a DCF valuation. Net profit BV EPS BVPS RoAE P/E P/BV Year (AED’ 000) (AED’ 000) (AED) (AED) (%) (x) (x) Dec-09E 4,297,390 16,508,615 1.28 6.95 31.8% 6.00 1.11 Dec-08E 3,338,187 10,532,054 0.99 5.14 40.4% 7.7 1.5 Dec-07E 2,177,307 5,995,564 0.65 3.32 47.0% 11.8 2.3 Dec-06 1,249,677 3,270,978 0.37 1.90 46.2% 20.6 4.1 Note: BV and All ratios are based on gradual dilution except for the EPS and P/E ratios which are based on full dilution. Aldar Properties performance vs. SC UAE Index 52-week high (AED) 7.72 14.0 Number of shares (‘000) 1,725,000 12.0 Number of shares post full 10.0 conversion of bonds (‘000) 3,355,022 8.0 Free Float 75% 6.0 Market cap (AED ‘000) 13,265,250 4.0 Price/Index level Price/Index Market cap (USD ‘000) 3,611,754 2.0 Div. Yld. 2006 1.00% 0.0 Jul-2005 Jul-2006 Jul-2007 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Sep-2005 Sep-2006 Mar-2006 Mar-2007 Nov-2005 Nov-2006 May-2005 May-2006 May-2007 Date SC UAE Index rebased Aldar Properties (AED) Aldar Properties Equities research Contents INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS .........................................................3 COMPANY OVerVieW ................................................................4 CORPOraTE STrucTure ................................................................................................................ 4 ALdar’S SHareHOLDING STrucTure ......................................................................................... 5 CONVerTIBLE BONds ..................................................................................................................... 6 STRATEGY ................................................................................7 ABU DHABI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVerVieW ..............................8 COMPETITION .................................................................................................................................. 8 ResIdeNTIAL seGmeNT ................................................................................................................. 9 OFFIce seGmeNT ..........................................................................................................................10 HOSPITALITY seGmeNT ...............................................................................................................11 RETAIL seGmeNT ..........................................................................................................................12 REAL ESTATE deVELOPMENTS ..................................................13 AL RAHA GardeNS ......................................................................................................................13 AL RAHA BeacH ...........................................................................................................................14 Yas IsLAND ...................................................................................................................................15 OTHer deVELOPmeNTS UNderWay ..........................................................................................16 MAP OF ALDAR’S reAL ESTATE deVELOPMENTS ..........................17 MAJOR OPerATING LINES ........................................................18 PrOPerTY saLes ..........................................................................................................................18 INVesTmeNT PROPerTIes ...........................................................................................................19 LaND saLes ..................................................................................................................................21 LAND BANK ............................................................................22 APPraIsed LAND baNK VALue ..................................................................................................23 ADJusTed NAV .............................................................................................................................23 SWOT-ANALYSIS .....................................................................24 FiNANciAL ANALYSIS AND FOrecASTS ......................................25 VALUATION ............................................................................28 FiNANciALS ...........................................................................29 APPENdiX ..............................................................................31 July 9th, 2007 2 Aldar Properties Investment highlights • Aldar Properties (Aldar) is the leading real estate developer in Abu Dhabi, with more than AED 200 bn worth of developments planned for the next ten years and a land bank of over 34 mn sqm. Its major master developments include: Al Raha Gardens, Al Raha Beach and Yas Island. • Aldar develops properties for sale and for its investment property portfolio in all key real estate market segments. In addition, the company plans to begin land sales this year out of its vast land bank. • The Abu Dhabi real estate market is regarded as one of the fastest growing in the region, fuelled by: strong economic growth, one of the highest GDP per capita figures in the world, an estimated population growth rate of 7%, continued shortage in property supply across all major market segments, pent-up demand accumulating for the last five years and new property legislations allowing expatriates who constitute an estimated 80% of the population to purchase leasehold property with 99 year renewable leasehold contract. • Aldar is expected to develop and sell an estimated 1.4 mn sqm of net sellable area over the next five years. In addition, the company is expected to develop a further 2.1 mn sqm of net leasable area for its investment property portfolio during the same period. Moreover, we expect the company to sell an estimated 6.5 mn sqm of serviced land within its master developments. • The operational strategy of the company puts a greater emphasis on the development of a large investment property portfolio than most other UAE based developers. In the long run, Aldar plans to keep an estimated 50% of its developments in its investment property portfolio, as the company believes this will secure the long term stability of its cash flows. The short term consequence of this strategy is a higher initial investment outlay and a greater need for financing, as the investment properties under development will not generate any revenue until they become operational. In the long run, this will be offset by steady and recurring cash flows. • Based on the appraised value of existing land bank the undiluted adjusted net asset value (NAV) per share is estimated to be AED 23.2, which suggest Aldar is trading a at a 67% discount to undiluted adjusted NAV. However, the diluted value is approximately AED 14.7 per share, which indicates that Aldar shares are trading at a 48% discount to adjusted NAV. • Aldar’s EBITDA is projected to reach AED 520 mn in 2007, AED 1.65 bn in 2008 and AED 3.44 bn in 2011. EBITDA is projected to have a CAGR of 60% over the projected period. • We initiate coverage on Aldar with a BUY recommendation. Our fair value target of AED 13.68 per share (based on full conversion of outstanding convertible bonds) implies an 78% upside potential to the current price of AED 7.69 per share. Our fair value is based on a DCF valuation. July 9th, 2007 3 Aldar Properties Equities research Company overview The core business is real estate Aldar Properties (Aldar) was established in Abu Dhabi in October 2004 and underwent development for sale and lease an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2005 and was subsequently listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Market (ADSM). The company’s core business is real estate development for sale and lease, combined with operation and management of real estate properties. The government supported The establishment of Aldar was not an event in isolation, but a step in tune with a the establishment of wider economic reform drive launched by the oil rich government
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