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Tavistock Investments* UK EQUITY RESEARCH

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Tavistock Investments* UK EQUITY RESEARCH 11 April 2016 UK EQUITY RESEARCH FINANCIAL SERVICES # BUY Tavistock Investments* Price 4.12 5p Conviction Buy trading on 0.3% of client assets Target Price 13.5p (10p) Tavistock is an integrated wealth management group growing rapidly both Reuters/BBG TAVI.L / TAVI LN organically and through the selective acquisition of advisory businesses. Client Index FTSE AIM assets under influence (AUI) of approaching £4bn and adviser numbers of 323 make Sector Financial Services Tavistock the seventh largest advisory network in the UK, marginally behind Tenet in sixth. Herein lies a paradox: why is Tavistock’s market cap just £14m when AIM Market Cap £14m newcomer Harwood Wealth (AIM: HW.), with its £1.4bn of AUI and 80 registered Shares in Issue 335.8m advisers, is valued at ~£50m, more than three times the size? A clear and NAV 3.3p (est) substantial pricing anomaly exists: Buy with a new 13.5p price target. Net Cash £2.4m (est) Interest Cover N/A ° Profitable and fast growing business Tavistock’s four advisory businesses Performance Absolute vs AIM are all profitable meaning that profitability at the group level will be achieved in 1 month: 32.9% 35.6% the current year to March 2017. This is expected to grow materially in FY18. -18.1% -8.8% 3 months: ° Investment case de-risked Since we last wrote in November, execution risk 100.0% 117.9% 12 months: has receded as the acquired businesses have been integrated and moved into High/Low 6.5p / 2.0p profitability. With fixed overheads covered, profitability from this point is sustainable, the only variable being the phasing/timing of delivery rather than profitability itself. ° Migrating AUI to AUM will unlock more value Tavistock Wealth, the group’s Last Results Finals – 25 Aug 15 in-house discretionary fund manager (DFM), is massively operationally geared to migrating more client assets in house. With just 11.8% of the current £4bn AUI Next Results Finals – Jun 16 managed in house, there is a substantial opportunity here not just for profitability Next Event Finals – Jun 16 but for Tavistock’s valuation. AUM is far more valuable than AUI. ° We forecast a dividend this year Tavistock should be capable of paying a 10.0 dividend in the current year, in our view. Now the group is profitable, Tavistock’s 8.0 cash generation profile should facilitate a healthy dividend policy increasing the 6.0 attraction to income seekers as well as growth investors. Investors buying at the 4.0 current share price can lock in a 6% yield based on our FY18 forecast. 2.0 ° Upside from acquisitions not built into the forecasts With over 5,000 0.0 advisory businesses in the UK worth less than £5m (source: IMAS Corporate Finance), Tavistock has a huge opportunity to continue to acquire businesses on Jul-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Jun-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 May-15 terms that are immediately earnings enhancing. Current forecasts do not factor in any further M&A and therefore likely under-represent the opportunity. Source: Capital IQ ° Harwood: three times the market cap for a business one third the size The recent IPO of Harwood Wealth (AIM: HW.) has laid bare the magnitude of Tavistock’s under-valuation. On the key metrics (adviser numbers, AUI), Harwood is 25%-40% of Tavistock’s size yet commands a >3x market cap. Our *WH Ireland acts as Broker to this company valuation of Tavistock, still erring on the side of caution on a blend of EV:AUI and #WH Ireland makes a market in this company P/E grounds, suggests an initial target price of 13.5p per share, more than treble the current price. Analysts Eric Burns +44 (0)113 394 6608 [email protected] Estimates (Mar - £000 s) FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Total Revenue 4,999 19,670 33,000 36,400 WHI PTP -963 -712 1,260 2,760 Marketing Communication WHI FD EPS (p) -0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.5 This document has not been prepared in FD P/E (x) -5.4 -25.8 18.2 8.4 accordance with legal requirements designed Dividend (p) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 to promote the independence of investment Yield (%) N/A N/A 2.4 6.1 research. Please refer to important Net Cash 4,489 2,433 1,947 1,459 disclosures towards the end of this Source: WH Ireland research * based on 426.1m fully diluted shares in issue document. TAVISTOCK INVESTMENTS Summary Financials INCOME STATEMENT Y/E Mar (£000s) FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Assets under influence (AUI) £0.4bn £3.7bn £4.0bn £5.0bn Assets under management (AUM) £80m £430m £600m £1,000m Revenue Advisory 4,556 19,043 31,300 33,200 Wealth 443 627 1,700 3,200 Continuing Revenue 4,999 19,670 33,000 36,400 Growth (%) N/A 293.5 67.8 10.3 EBITA (965) (731) 1,440 2,940 EBIT Margin (%) (18.8) (3.5) 4.5 8.2 Interest 2 20 (180) (180) Pre-Tax Profit adjusted (963) (712) 1,260 2,760 Amoritsation (595) (945) (1,695) (1,695) Share-based payments, exceptionals 575 - - - Pre-Tax Profit reported (983) (1,657) (435) 1,065 Tax Rate (%) - 15.5 23.4 24.4 Avg Shares in Issue (m) 101.0 291.2 335.8 335.8 Fully Diluted Shares in Issue (m) 111.0 376.5 426.1 426.1 EPS (p) Clean (0.84) (0.21) 0.29 0.62 Growth (%) N/A N/A N/A 116.2 FD EPS (p) Clean (0.76) (0.16) 0.23 0.49 Growth (%) N/A N/A N/A 116.2 Dividend (p) - - 0.10 0.25 Growth (%) N/A N/A N/A 150.0 TAVISTOCK INVESTMENTS Investment Case Building a business of scale Tavistock is the seventh largest adviser network in the UK 323 advisers/ ~£4bn AUI with 323 advisers and ~£4bn of AUI. This positions it just behind Tenet in sixth but more than twice that of Lighthouse Group (AIM: LGT, N/R, 12.25p, £16m mkt cap) with 139. Tavistock now boasts AUI of ~£4bn, comparing very favourably with recent IPO Harwood Wealth (AIM: HW., N/R, 93p, £51m mkt cap) with just £1.5bn. Migration of AUI to AUM a key driver of profitability Using Tavistock’s in-house DFM capability, Tavistock Wealth, more of the client relationship and hence client value can be AUI is migrating to higher value retained within the group. Current AUM of £430m represents just 11.8% of AUI but AUM…. Tavistock’s experience with its early acquisitions, which have been bedded into the group, is that ~45% of client assets have been transferred in-house. Replicating that level of penetration across the ~£4bn of AUI across the group would give discretionary AUM of ~£1.8bn and potentially generate an annual profit of ~£6m for Tavistock Wealth alone. Fig 01: AUI vs AUM – the opportunity 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 AUM £m / AUI AUM 1,000 0 FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E AUI AUM potential* AUM actual/ WHI forecast Source: WH Ireland research * represents potential increase in penetration of AUM towards 50% target Huge valuation implication from migrating AUI to AUM The migration of AUI to AUM .... with clear valuation implications has clear valuation implications with the latter being far more highly valued by the market as it provides greater earnings visibility. As an example, we cite the takeover of Towry by Tilney Bestinvest, valuing the former at 6.7% (predominantly discretionary) AUM Tavistock’s current EV represents ~0.3% of AUI meaning there is a huge valuation opportunity as more assets migrate in-house. No shortage of acquisition opportunities The consolidation opportunity for Tavistock No shortage of advisory firms to buy should not be underestimated. According to Matrix Solutions, there were 10,700 regulated investment firms in the UK in February 2016, of which an estimated 95%+ have 10 or fewer individuals. This is reinforced by data published by IMAS Corporate Finance suggesting there are 5,600 advisory businesses in the UK worth less than £5m. Tavistock tends to offer performance based deferred consideration and an element of paper as part of the total offer, incentivising vendors to ensure a successful outcome for both parties. TAVISTOCK INVESTMENTS Strong pitch to both investors and advisers Tavistock’s investment pitch to clients is a wide choice of portfolios with a competitive and transparent charging structure and an increasingly successful track record compared to its peer group (Fig 03). This approach is also proving attractive to potential vendors of advisory businesses: one of the drivers for the principal’s sale of Abacus to Tavistock was the discretionary investment solutions it offers, as well as a shared ethos of customer care. Strong and experienced management team Chairman Oliver Cooke and CEO Brian Raven are vastly experienced in the quoted company arena, having founded Card Clear Plc (credit card fraud prevention) which grew to have a market capitalisation of over £100m over 7 years. They subsequently created Gladstone Plc, a membership and loyalty system business. Both businesses were taken over delivering significant upside to early investors in the companies. Capable of paying a dividend Now the group is profitable, Tavistock’s cash generation profile should facilitate a healthy dividend policy increasing the attraction to income seekers as well as growth investors. Investors buying at the current share price can lock in a 6% yield based on our FY18 forecast.
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