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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012

THE PERMANENT WAR U.S. set to keep kill lists for years ‘Disposition matrix’ secretly crafted Blueprint would guide hunt for terrorists

by Greg Miller

Over the past two years, the Obama ad- and carrying out strikes is “a necessary part ministration has been secretly developing a of what we do. . . . We’re not going to wind up new blueprint for pursuing terrorists, a next- in 10 years in a world of everybody holding generation targeting list called the “disposi- hands and saying, ‘We love America.’ ” tion matrix.” That timeline suggests that the Unit- The matrix contains the names of ter- ed States has reached only the midpoint of rorism suspects arrayed against an account- what was once known as the global war on ing of the resources being marshaled to track . Targeting lists that were regarded them down, including sealed indictments as finite emergency measures after the at- and clandestine operations. U.S. officials tacks of Sept. 11, 2001, are now fixtures of said the database is designed to go beyond the national security apparatus. The rosters existing kill lists, mapping plans for the “dis- expand and contract with the pace of drone position” of suspects beyond the reach of strikes but never go to zero. drones. Meanwhile, a significant milestone Although the matrix is a work in prog- looms: The number of militants and civil- ress, the effort to create it reflects a reality ians killed in the drone campaign over the setting in among the nation’s counterterror- past 10 years will soon exceed 3,000 by some ism ranks: The ’ conventional estimates, surpassing the number of people wars are winding down, but al-Qaeda killed in the Sept. the government expects to 11 attacks. continue adding names to The Obama adminis- kill or capture lists for years. tration has highlighted its Among senior Obama successes against the terror- administration officials, ist network, including the there is a broad consensus death of , that such operations are ROB JENSEN/U.S. AIR FORCE VIA GETTY IMAGES as signature achievements likely to be extended at least The United States operates that argue for President another decade. Given the multiple drone programs. Obama’s reelection. The ad- way al-Qaeda continues to washingtonpost.com ministration has taken ten- Tracking the drone war: For metastasize, some officials 6 a detailed look at a database tative steps toward greater said no clear end is in sight. of individual drone strikes, transparency, formally ac- including numbers, locations and “We can’t possibly kill related news reports, go to knowledging for the first everyone who wants to harm apps.washingtonpost.com/ time the United States’ use foreign/drones. us,” a senior administration Video: To see a video about of armed drones. official said. Generating lists D the program, Less visible is the ex- go to washingtonpost.com. WEDNESDAY, OCTOBERgp 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 2 OF 7

REUTERS A houseA house was destroyed was bydestroyed a U.S. drone strikeby a inU.S. the eastern drone province strike of Hadramoutin the eastern in September. province In , of the Hadramout number of militants in September. on the list has ranged In Yemen, from 10 to the 15, officials said, and is not likely to slip into the single digits soon, even though there have been 36 U.S. airstrikes this year. YemenYemen number of militants on the list has ranged from 10 to 15, officials said, and is not likely to slip into the single digits soon, even though there have been 36 U.S. airstrikes this year. tent to which Obama has institutionalized gram and return to its pre-Sept. 11 focus on the highly classified practice of targeted gathering intelligence. killing, transforming ad-hoc elements into The U.S. Joint Special Operations Com- a counterterrorism infrastructure capable mand, which carried out the raid that killed of sustaining a seemingly permanent war. bin Laden, has moved commando teams Spokesmen for the White House, the Na- into suspected terrorist hotbeds in Africa. tional Counterterrorism Center, the CIA and A rugged U.S. outpost in has been other agencies declined to comment on the transformed into a launching pad for coun- matrix or other counterterrorism programs. terterrorism operations across the Horn of Privately, officials acknowledge that the Africa and the Middle East. development of the matrix is part of a series JSOC also established a secret target- of moves, in Washington and overseas, to ing center across the Potomac River from embed counterterrorism tools into U.S. poli- Washington, U.S. officials said. The elite cy for the long haul. command’s targeting cells have tradition- White House counterterrorism adviser ally been located near the front lines of its John O. Brennan is seeking to codify the missions, including in and . administration’s approach to generating But JSOC created a “national capital region” capture/kill lists, part of a broader effort to task force that is a 15-minute commute from guide future administrations through the the White House so it could be more direct- counterterrorism processes Obama has em- ly involved in deliberations about al-Qaeda braced. lists. CIA Director David H. Petraeus is push- The developments were described by ing to expand the agency’s fleet of armed current and former officials from the White drones, U.S. officials said. The proposal, House and , as well as intelli- which would need White House approval, gence and counterterrorism agencies. Most reflects the agency’s transformation into a spoke on the condition of anonymity because paramilitary force, and makes clear that it of the sensitivity of the subject. does not intend to dismantle its drone pro- These counterterrorism components WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 3 OF 7 have been affixed to a legal foundation for targeted killing that the Obama administra- tion has discussed more openly over the past year. In a series of speeches, administration officials have cited legal bases, including the congressional authorization to use military force granted after the Sept. 11 attacks, as well as the nation’s right to defend itself. Critics contend that those justifications have become more tenuous as the drone campaign has expanded far beyond the core group of al-Qaeda operatives behind the strikes on New York and Washington. Crit- ics note that the administration still doesn’t confirm the CIA’s involvement or the identi- ties of those killed. Certain strikes are now under legal challenge, including the killings last year in Yemen of U.S.-born al-Qaeda op- erative Anwar al-Awlaki and his 16-year-old son. Counterterrorism experts said the reli- ance on targeted killing is self-perpetuating, yielding undeniable short-term results that may obscure long-term costs. “The problem with the drone is it’s like your lawn mower,” said Bruce Riedel, a for- mer CIA analyst and Obama counterterror- secret prisons ended a program that had ism adviser. “You’ve got to mow the lawn all become a source of international scorn, but the time. The minute you stop mowing, the it also complicated the pursuit of terrorists. grass is going to grow back.” Unless a suspect surfaced in the sights of a drone in or Yemen, the United An evolving database States had to scramble to figure out what to The United States now operates multi- do. ple drone programs, including acknowledged “We had a disposition problem,” said U.S. military patrols over conflict zones in a former U.S. counterterrorism official in- Afghanistan and , and classified CIA volved in developing the matrix. surveillance flights over . Strikes against The database is meant to map out con- al-Qaeda, however, are carried out under tingencies, creating an operational menu secret lethal programs involving the CIA that spells out each agency’s role in case a and JSOC. The matrix was developed by the suspect surfaces in an unexpected spot. “If NCTC, under former director Michael Leit- he’s in , pick up with the Sau- er, to augment those organizations’ separate dis,” the former official said. “If traveling but overlapping kill lists, officials said. overseas to al-Shabab [in ], we can The result is a single, continually evolv- pick him up by ship. If in Yemen, kill or have ing database in which biographies, locations, the Yemenis pick him up.” known associates and affiliated organiza- Officials declined to disclose the identi- tions are all catalogued. So are strategies for ties of suspects on the matrix. They pointed, taking targets down, including extradition however, to the capture last year of alleged requests, capture operations and drone pa- al-Qaeda operative Ahmed Abdulkadir trols. Warsame off the coast of Yemen. Warsame Obama’s decision to shutter the CIA’s was held for two months aboard a U.S. ship WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 4 OF 7 before being transferred to Justice Depart- United States adapt to al-Qaeda’s morphing ment custody and charged in federal court structure and its efforts to exploit turmoil in New York. across North Africa and the Middle East. “Warsame was a classic case of ‘What A year after Defense Secretary Leon E. are we going to do with him?’ ” the former Panetta declared the core of al-Qaeda near counterterrorism official said. In such cases, strategic defeat, officials see an array of the matrix lays out plans, including which emerging threats beyond Pakistan, Yemen U.S. naval vessels are in the area and which and Somalia — the three countries where charges the Justice Department should pre- almost all U.S. drone strikes have occurred. pare. The Arab Spring has upended U.S. “Clearly, there were people in Yemen counterterrorism partnerships in countries that we had on the matrix,” as well as oth- including where U.S. officials fear al- ers in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the former Qaeda could establish new roots. The net- counterterrorism official said. The matrix work’s affiliate in North Africa, al-Qaeda in was a way to be ready if they moved. “How the Islamic Maghreb, has seized territory in do we deal with these guys in transit? You northern and acquired weapons that weren’t going to fire a drone if they were were smuggled out of Libya. moving through Turkey or Iran.” “Egypt worries me to no end,” a high- Officials described the matrix as a da- ranking administration official said. “Look tabase in development, although its status at Libya, and Mali and then across is unclear. Some said it has not been im- the Sahel. You’re talking about such wide plemented because it is too cumbersome. expanses of territory, with open borders and Others, including officials from the White military, security and intelligence capabili- House, Congress and intelligence agencies, ties that are basically nonexistent.” described it as a blueprint that could help the

Previous targets The number of militants and civilians killed by U.S. drone strikes over the past decade is approaching 3,000, according to some estimates. Among the most prominent militant leaders killed in Pakistan and Yemen in recent years:

Abu Yahya al-Libi Anwar al-Awlaki Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader and The radical cleric and U.S. citizen was operational manager, he helped born in New Mexico and became a steer the group after Osama bin leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Laden’s death. Libi was killed in a Peninsula. He was killed by a drone on June 4 in Pakistan’s strike on Sept. 30, 2011, in Yemen. tribal belt.

Fahd al-Quso Samir Khan The al-Qaeda leader in Yemen, who The naturalized U.S. citizen, who had was wanted in connection with the lived in New York and North Carolina, bombing of the USS Cole there in was a top propaganda operative for 2000, was killed in a drone strike in AQAP.He died in the same strike that eastern Yemen on May 6. killed Awlaki.

Ilyas Kashmiri Baitullah Mehsud The commander of an al-Qaeda The head of the Pakistani was affiliate in Pakistan called Harkat-ul- on the rooftop of a house in South Jihad al-Islami was killed in a drone when he and several others strike in the South Waziristan territory were killed by a drone strike on Aug. 5, of Pakistan on June 3, 2011. 2009.

Abu Haris Al-Qaeda’s chief in Pakistan at the time was at the home of a Haqqani network commander in North Waziristan when he was killed by a drone strike on Sept. 8, 2008 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 5 OF 7

“One of the things we are looking at very hard is how to institutionalize a process that will outlive this administration.” A senior White House official

ASIF HASSAN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE Tribesmen carry the coffin of a person allegedly killed by a U.S. drone attack. The men said that innocent civilians Pakistan were killed by the June 15 strike in a village in North Waziristan. U.S. officials said the kill list in Pakistan has slipped to fewer than 10 al-Qaeda targets.

Streamlining targeted killing roles in scrutinizing the names being added The creation of the matrix and the insti- to U.S. target lists. tutionalization of kill/capture lists reflect a Now the system functions like a funnel, shift that is as psychological as it is strategic. starting with input from half a dozen agen- Before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the cies and narrowing through layers of review United States recoiled at the idea of targeted until proposed revisions are laid on Bren- killing. The Sept. 11 commission recounted nan’s desk, and subsequently presented to how the Clinton administration had passed the president. on a series of opportunities to target bin Lad- Videoconference calls that were pre- en in the years before the attacks — before viously convened by Adm. Mike Mullen, armed drones existed. President Bill Clin- then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ton approved a set of cruise-missile strikes have been discontinued. Officials said Bren- in 1998 after al-Qaeda bombed embassies in nan thought the process shouldn’t be run by East Africa, but after extensive deliberation, those who pull the trigger on strikes. and the group’s leader escaped harm. “What changed is rather than the chair- Targeted killing is now so routine that man doing that, John chairs the meeting,” the Obama administration has spent much said Leiter, the former head of the NCTC. of the past year streamlining the processes The administration has also elevated that sustain it. the role of the NCTC, which was conceived This year, the White House scrapped a as a clearinghouse for threat data and has no system in which the Pentagon and the Na- operational capability. Under Brennan, who tional Security Council had overlapping served as its founding director, the center WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 6 OF 7 has emerged as a targeting hub. to fire. But aside from Obama’s presence at Other entities have far more resources “Terror Tuesday” meetings — which usually focused on al-Qaeda. The CIA, JSOC and are devoted to discussing terrorism threats U.S. Central Command have hundreds of and trends rather than approving targets — analysts devoted to the terrorist network’s the president’s involvement is more indirect. franchise in Yemen, while the NCTC has “The president would never come to a fewer than two dozen. But the center con- deputies meeting,” a senior administration trols a key function. official said, although participants recalled “It is the keeper of the criteria,” a former cases in which Brennan stepped out of the U.S. counterterrorism official said, meaning situation room to get Obama’s direction on that it is in charge of culling names from al- questions the group couldn’t resolve. Qaeda databases for targeting lists based on The review process is compressed but criteria dictated by the White House. not skipped when the CIA or JSOC has com- The criteria are classified but center on pelling intelligence and a narrow window in obvious questions: Who are the operation- which to strike, officials said. The approach al leaders? Who are the key facilitators? A also applies to the development of criteria typical White House request will direct the for “signature strikes,” which allow the CIA NCTC to craft a list of al-Qaeda operatives and JSOC to hit targets based on patterns of in Yemen involved in carrying out or plotting activity — packing a vehicle with explosives, attacks on U.S. personnel in Sanaa. for example — even when the identities of The lists are reviewed at regular three- those who would be killed is unclear. month intervals during meetings at the NCTC headquarters that involve analysts A model approach from other organizations, including the CIA, or an administration that is the first the State Department and JSOC. Officials to embrace targeted killing on a wide stress that these sessions don’t equate to ap- Fscale, officials seem confident that they proval for additions to kill lists, an authority have devised an approach that is so bureau- that rests exclusively with the White House. cratically, legally and morally sound that fu- With no objections — and officials said ture administrations will follow suit. those have been rare — names are submitted During Monday’s presidential debate, to a panel of National Security Council offi- Republican nominee made it cials that is chaired by Brennan and includes clear that he would continue the drone cam- the deputy directors of the CIA and the FBI, paign. “We can’t kill our way out of this,” he as well as top officials from the State Depart- said, but added later that Obama was “right ment, the Pentagon and the NCTC. to up the usage” of drone strikes and that he Obama approves the criteria for lists would do the same. and signs off on drone strikes outside Paki- As Obama nears the end of his term, of- stan, where the CIA director decides when ficials said the kill list in Pakistan has slipped to fewer than 10 al-Qaeda targets, About this series down from as many as two dozen. This project examines evolving U.S. counterterrorism policies and the The agency now aims many of its practice of targeted killing. It is based on interviews with dozens of current Predator strikes at the Haqqani net- and former national security officials, as well as with military commanders, intelligence analysts, lawmakers and experts. work, which has been blamed for at- s Coming Thursday tacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan. White House adviser John O. Brennan In Yemen, the number of mili- is developing a “playbook” to codify the administration’s tants on the list has ranged from 10 counterterrorism policies. to 15, officials said, and is not likely s Coming Friday to slip into the single digits soon, The orders to find, track or kill targets are delivered to Camp Lemonnier in even though there have been 36 U.S. Djibouti. Virtually the entire 500-acre airstrikes this year. camp is dedicated to counterterrorism. The number of targets on the WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2012 KLMNO PAGE 7 OF 7 lists isn’t fixed, officials said, but fluctuates have sought to trigger debate over how long based on adjustments to criteria. Officials the nation might employ the kill lists. But defended the arrangement even while ac- officials said the discussions became dead knowledging an erosion in the caliber of op- ends. eratives placed in the drones’ cross hairs. In one instance, Mullen, the former “Is the person currently Number 4 as Joint Chiefs chairman, returned from Paki- good as the Number 4 seven years ago? Prob- stan and recounted a heated confrontation ably not,” said a former senior U.S. counter- with his counterpart, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. terrorism official involved in the process. Mullen told White House and counter- “But it doesn’t mean he’s not dangerous.” terrorism officials that the Pakistani military In focusing on bureaucratic refine- chief had demanded an answer to a seem- ments, the administration has largely avoid- ingly reasonable question: After hundreds of ed confronting more fundamental questions drone strikes, how could the United States about the lists. Internal doubts about the ef- still be working its way through a “top 20” fectiveness of the drone campaign are almost list? nonexistent. So are apparent alternatives. The issue resurfaced after the U.S. raid “When you rely on a particular tactic, that killed bin Laden. Seeking to repair a it starts to become the core of your strategy rift with Pakistan, Panetta, the CIA direc- — you see the puff of smoke, and he’s gone,” tor, told Kayani and others that the United said Paul Pillar, a former deputy director of States had only a handful of targets left and the CIA’s counterterrorism center. “When we would be able to wind down the drone cam- institutionalize certain things, including tar- paign, former officials said. geted killing, it does cross a threshold that A senior aide to Panetta disputed this makes it harder to cross back.” account, and said Panetta mentioned the For a decade, the dimensions of the shrinking target list during his trip to Islam- drone campaign have been driven by short- abad but didn’t raise the prospect that drone term objectives: the degradation of al-Qaeda strikes would end. Two former U.S. officials and the prevention of a follow-on large-scale said the White House told Panetta to avoid attack on U.S. soil. even hinting at commitments the United Side effects are more difficult to mea- States could not keep. sure — including the extent to which strikes “We didn’t want to get into the business breed more enemies of the United States — of limitless lists,” said a former senior U.S. but could be more consequential if the cam- counterterrorism official who oversaw the paign continues for 10 more years. lists. “There is this apparatus created to deal “We are looking at something that is po- with counterterrorism. It’s still useful. The tentially indefinite,” Pillar said. “We have to question is: When will it stop being useful? pay particular attention, maybe more than I don’t know.” we collectively have so far, to the longer- [email protected] term pros and cons to the methods we use.” Karen DeYoung, Craig Whitlock and Julie Tate Obama administration officials at times contributed to this report.