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In the Legisla Ture IN THE LEGISLA TURE The General Assembly of the 21st Century by Paul T. O'Connor What will the legislature look like in 10 years? For legislature's racial, gender, and political make-up. one, computers and other high-tech equipment will But their least speculative forecast, perhaps, may play a larger role. The legislature of the future also be the assembly's increasing reliance on new tech- is likely to have a much different demographic nology- particularly computers. make-up. It may have more women and fewer men. It probably will have more minorities and retirees, Increased Use of Computers but fewer lawyers and business people. There also is likely to be a larger legislative staff and expanded and Databases cable television coverage of the General Assembly, The hypothetical legislator, Rep. Smith, is linked but perhaps fewer newspaper correspondents fol- by telephone from her home computer to the main lowing the legislature. legislative network in Raleigh. Her administrative assistant communicates directly with her using a computer in Smith's office in the Legislative Build- magine it's a spring weekend in the year 2001. ing. Helping the aide is a budget analyst from the I Rep.AnnSmith is writing aproposal to present legislative staff, now divided into separate House to a House appropriations subcommittee the fol- and Senate contingents. lowing week. Smith plans to recommend dou- Using the computer, Smith scans the voting bling the funding for the state's adult day-care records of each subcommittee member going back program. But the subcommittee's chairs support to the 1993 legislative session, when the General only a 10-percent increase. Assembly first computerized floor votes. She asks Somehow, Smith must find nine votes for her for the members' votes on a list of key issues proposal-about twice the number she has now. related to aging and child day care. So, using the state-loaned personal computer that Next, she calls up a state database first used she's installed in the upstairs bedroom of her house, for the 1991 redistricting but kept current with Smith calls up the names of every subcommittee fresh data over the past 10 years. The file cata- member. She then begins research aimed at iden- logues every road, stream, and neighborhood in tifying those members most sympathetic to her the state. It's also blended with state files on proposal and perhaps most vulnerable to senior voting records and U.S. Census files on demo- citizen voters. graphics. With a few keystrokes, Smith pulls up Welcome to the General Assembly of the 21st other state databases showing Medicare/Medicaid Century! usage and tax records showing senior-citizen in- Between January and May 1992, several dozen come and the number of families claiming senior legislators, lobbyists, and other legislative observ- ers were asked in interviews the same question: What will the General Assembly look like in 10 Paul T. O'Connor has covered the N.C. General Assembly since 1979. He is the columnist for the 50-newspaper Capi- years? They predicted sweeping changes in the tol Press Association. 58 NORTH CAROLINA INSIGHT citizens as dependents. To her computer, she also potential for state jobs in those day-care centers.' adds the state's files on local unemployment rates She'll also threaten to talk about the needs of and jobless workers who are seeking human ser- individual districts at the subcommittee meeting- vice positions. in front of cameras of the statewide cable televi- Finally, she tells the computer to mix all the sion network that airs live, gavel-to-gavel cover- databases and compile profiles of the 16 subcom- age of the legislature.' mittee members' districts. Smith is now ready to Don't get caught up in the futuristic-sounding start politicking. Using the computer data, she has technology, however. Much of what Rep. Smith compiled a profile of the need for adult day care does in 2001 already can be done in 1992. "I don't and the impact her proposal would have in each see any problem with your scenario," says M. district-for both the coming biennium and de- Glenn Newkirk, chief of the legislature's Auto- cade. That's because the Assembly now requires mated Services Division. legislators to project long-range goals and costs The technology to do such research exists when they propose new spending. Smith then now, and legislation recently adopted or under selects a few key facts for each district and fax's consideration almost guarantees that lawmakers them to the desk-top computers in the homes of the will be able to use that technology during the other subcommittee members. coming decade. For example, the Legislative Ser- When Smith buttonholes the subcommittee vices Commission voted on March 26, 1992 to members on Monday, she won't appeal to their replace the voting systems in both houses of the sense of compassion for the aged or the families of Assembly. The Legislative Services Commission's senior citizens who need someone to care for their plan will allow floor votes to be captured by the parents and grandparents while they work. In- Assembly's computer network and stored in data- stead, flashing her research findings for each dis- bases that will be open to the public. Other pro- trict, she'll talk about votes back home and the posals before the commission would supply legis- Future legislative sessions may be aired live , gavel -to-gavel , on cable television systems statewide . Here , N.C. Public Television covers a Senate Committee as Sen . Roy Cooper, D-Nash, votes. SEPTEMBER 1992 59 "THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT I THEY WILL USE THE INFORM- ATION AND TECHNOLOGY. THEY MAY HAVE MORE INFORMATION AVAILABLE, BUT WHETHER OR NOT LEGISLATORS, ON AVERAGE, ARE GOING TO MAKE USE OF IT IS ANOTHER ISSUE. YOU COULD MAKE THE CASE THAT THE MORE INFORMA- TION LEGISLATORS HAVE, THE LESS THEY USE- THAT THEY TURN TO STAFF AND SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS AND SAY, `TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK I SHOULD THINK."' - REP.JOSEPHUS MAVRETIC (D-L' DGECOMBE) lators with individual personal computers and let the business world who use them to great advan- them use the state computer network from outside tage."' the government complex. Thad Beyle, a professor of political science at Changes in the Demographics the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicts that in the age of computers, those who of the Legislature control the new technology will have a new source If the technology is a sure thing, the least certain of power. That is particularly true for House and aspect of the scenario is Rep. Smith-a dedicated, Senate leaders, because they can utilize staff mem- tenacious, technologically literate legislator who bers who know how to use the technology. But has a vision and is ready to pursue it. As Rep. Joe some observers note that legislatures, in general, Mavretic (D-Edgecombe) puts it: "The assump- have been slow to take advantage of computer tion is that they will use the information and tech- technology. That has shifted the balance of power nology. They may have more information avail- in some states where the executive and judicial able, but whether or not legislators, on average, branches have more readily made use of comput- are going to make use of it is another issue. You ers. could make the case that the more information "Legislators are losing out because they are legislators have, the less they use-that they turn not paying enough attention to the possibilities in instead to staff and special interest groups and say, information technology," Rick Krueger, speaker `Tell me what you think I should think."' pro tern of the Minnesota House of Representa- Those interviewed for this article expressed tives, writes in the journal, State Legislatures. considerable skepticism about the General "But despite the pervasive manner in which [com- Assembly's ability to attract high-quality, dedi- puters] are changing the world, information tech- cated people for service. Probably no one was nologies don't seem to interest legislators beyond more pessimistic than a veteran industry lobbyist certain narrow applications. High-tech informa- who asks that his name not be used. "There's a tion systems have caught the attention of the other dearth of leadership down here," he says. "The branches of government and of decision makers in idea of government service has deteriorated" among 60 NORTH CAROLINA INSIGHT the state' s leading citizens . That view is echoed previous ones, the shifting of federal responsibili- by Gordon Allen, who owns a Roxboro insurance ties to the states will force ever -longer sessions in company and lobbies for the N .C. Alliance of the coming decade.' That time commitment will Community Financial Institutions . "We're getting force many young and middle-aged legislators to a bunch of retirees now who are out of touch," says abandon public service and could keep others from Allen, a three-term legislator who was Senate presi- even running . Retirees , in contrast , generally have dent pro tem from 1971 to 1974. In the past, he more time available to serve. says, "all of the guys were family men who had an Sen. Betsy Cochrane (R-Davie ) says that the immediate need to have an impact." combination of an aging electorate and a legisla- Many observers believe that retirees will play ture increasingly made up of retired people has increasingly larger roles in future legislative ses- serious implications for programs for the young, sions, as they have in recent years. From 1971 to especially education . Jim Johnson , a budget ana- 1991 , the number of retirees serving in the General lyst with the legislature 's Fiscal Research Divi- Assembly more than tripled , from 11 to 34.1 Dur- sion, notes that the state' s population of school ing that same period, the average ages of House children , as well as its senior citizens, will grow members rose from 49 to 57 and Senate members through the 1990s .
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