Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, October 1

Headlines:  Abbas: Israeli Administration is Attacking Two-State Solution  Netanyahu Calls Abbas’ UN Speech ‘Deceitful, Inciting’  Israel Left Divided While Right Denounces Abbas Speech  Saudi Prince: Arabs Used to Say No, Now Israel Refuses Peace  Lapid and Saudi Prince Powwow About Regional Peace Summit  World Bank Warns Israel-Palestinian Unrest Due to Unsustainable Status Quo  Russia Gave Israel Advance Notice of Its Air Strikes in Syria  7 Israeli Arab in ‘ISIS’ Cell Planned Attacks on IDF, Police

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Was It a Bombshell or Stink Bomb That Abbas Dropped At UN?”  By Barak Ravid  The Weekly Standard: “Abbas’s ‘Bombshell’”  By Elliott Abrams

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts October 1, 2015

Ma’ariv Abbas: Israeli Administration is Attacking Two-State Solution Abu Mazen said in his address to the UN yesterday that the Palestinians could not continue to be bound by agreements with Israel while Israel continued to violate them. He said that Israeli government policy indicated that Israel was acting to destroy the two-state solution. He called to provide international protection to Palestinians and to establish an organization to oversee an end to the Israeli occupation. Addressing the Israeli people, Abu Mazen said that he still extended his hand for a just peace that guaranteed the rights of his people and their freedom. See also, "Abbas Threatens to Stop Abiding by Oslo Accords in UN Speech" (Jerusalem Post)

Middle East Monitor Netanyahu Calls Abbas’ UN Speech ‘Deceitful, Inciting’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out on Wednesday at Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who told the UN General Assembly his side could not remain the only one committed to agreements. "Abu Mazen's speech is deceitful and encourages incitement and destruction in the Middle East," Netanyahu's office said, referring to Abbas. Abbas called on Israel "to cease its use of brutal force ... particularly its actions at the Al-Aqsa mosque," accusing Israel of violating the site's status quo and preventing Muslim worshippers from accessing it. See also, “Netanyahu Blasts Abbas' ‘Deceitful’ UN Speech'” (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post Israel Left Divided While Right Denounces Abbas Speech Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s address to the United Nations General Assembly frustrated some leaders of the Israeli Left, while others endorsed what he said. The Left, which initiated the Oslo Accords that Abbas said he wanted to negate, reacted with different voices to the Palestinian leader’s announcement. Zionist Union leaders Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni and Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid expressed disappointment, while Peace Now secretary-general Yariv Oppenheimer praised Abbas. “Abbas and Netanyahu are leaders who are afraid of making decisions and prefer slogans and mutual recriminations, while leaving our future hanging in the wind,” Herzog said.

Ha’aretz Saudi Prince: Arabs Used to Say No, Now Israel Refuses Peace If Benjamin Netanyahu “was more of a far-sighted leader, he would break the logjam and negotiate on the basis of the Arab Peace Initiative,” said Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal bin Saud. In a special interview with Haaretz, to be broadcast during the upcoming Second Haaretz Peace Conference on November 12 in Tel Aviv, Turki said that such a move would “remove the doubts and suspicions on the Arab side.” In advance of his meeting with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid in New York on Wednesday, the prince said that one could not depend on Netanyahu to make such a move “but he is the Israeli prime minister. If the Israeli people were to choose someone else who is more willing to engage, that would be a welcome development.” 2

Times of Israel Lapid and Saudi Prince Powwow About Regional Peace Summit Yair Lapid, chairman of the opposition Yesh Atid party, met with a prominent member of the Saudi royal family in New York on Tuesday night for a discussion that spanned issues of regional diplomacy and security, including a peace plan being advanced by him, Lapid said Wednesday. Speaking with members of the Israel Policy Forum in New York, Lapid said that he and Prince Turki bin Faisal al-Saud had discussed the possibility of a regional summit to kick off serious consideration of the 2002 Saudi peace initiative. See also, “Why Did Yair Lapid Meet a Saudi Prince in New York?” (Arutz Sheva) i24 News World Bank Warns Israel-Palestinian Unrest Due to Status Quo The World Bank warned of the "high risk" of renewed Israel-Palestinian conflict if the political and economic status quo between the two sides persists, in a report released Tuesday. "The persistence of this situation could potentially lead to political and social unrest," it said. "In short, the status quo is not sustainable and downside risks of further conflict and social unrest are high," said the World Bank. The percentage of the population living under the poverty line has reached 39 percent in Gaza and 16 percent in the West Bank.

Ha’aretz Russia Gave Israel Advance Notice of Its Air Strikes in Syria Russia informed Israel in advance about its intention to carry out an aerial attack in Syria, senior Israeli officials told Haaretz on Wednesday. The sources said Russian government officials made contact with Yossi Cohen, the national security adviser in the Prime Minister's Office, as well as with senior figures in the Israeli defense establishment about an hour before the Russian attack, saying that Russian planes would shortly thereafter be bombing targets in Syria. The Russians' advance notice was apparently designed to avoid any confrontation between Israeli and Russian planes in the course of the operation. See also, "Russia and Israel Cosy Up Over Syria" (The Economist)

Ynet News 7 Israeli Arabs in ‘ISIS’ Cell Planned Attacks on IDF, Police The Islamic State may have finally crossed Israel's borders, according to an indictment presented to Nazareth's District Court Thursday morning accusing seven Israeli Arabs of planning attacks in Israel on behalf of the organization, which is also known as ISIS. According to the Shin Bet, the accused "created an Islamic State cell with the intention of carrying out terror attacks." Some of the suspects were said to have been in contact with several Israelis who joined ISIS in Syria. The former residents of Yafa an-Naseriyye in the Lower Galilee region apparently recruited the seven into ISIS and helped them plot their attacks. See also, “ISIS Cell Planned to Attack IDF Base" (Arutz Sheva)

Ha’aretz – September 30, 2015 Was It a Bombshell or Stink Bomb That Abbas Dropped at UN?

The bomb Abbas threw at the UN could still be dismantled if some dramatic change occurs. The biggest question is how Israel will react.

By Barak Ravid  For a change, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas kept his promise. In his speech to the UN General Assembly Wednesday night, he indeed threw a bombshell when he declared that the Palestinians would no longer uphold the agreements they have signed with Israel over the last 20 years. But the question that remains unanswered is whether this bomb will be detonated instantly and generate serious shock waves, lie there as unexploded ordnance that could go off at any moment, or turn out to be not a real bomb at all, but at best a stink bomb whose stench will quickly dissipate.  It’s not by chance that the Prime Minister’s Office declined to respond to the most important part of Abbas’ speech; Israel still doesn’t fully understand its significance. But Jerusalem’s initial analysis of the speech interpreted it as a mere threat. After all, Abbas didn’t specify a date as of which the Palestinians would no longer honor their agreements with Israel. Nor did he specify which agreements he meant and whether security coordination was included in them.  According to this initial Israeli analysis, Abbas indeed threw a bomb, but he hasn’t yet pressed the detonator. He’ll wait a little longer to see what impact his words have. If some dramatic change occurs, he can dismantle his bomb and put it back in the attic. But if nothing happens, the bomb is liable to go off, and then the already sensitive situation in the territories will deteriorate further.  Now, all the frantic running around will begin. Indeed, it had already started Wednesday night, when the foreign ministers of the Quartet – the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations – met together with the foreign ministers of several Arab and European countries to discuss the crisis between Israel and the Palestinians.  In another two weeks, a senior delegation from the Quartet will travel to Israel. EU Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Wednesday night, and she, too, plans to travel to the region. Even the Americans, who over the past few months have shunned any engagement with this issue, might be dragged into it against their will.  The biggest question is what Israel will do. At this stage, it seems like Netanyahu and his government have no strategy on the Palestinian issue aside from attempting to preserve the status quo at all costs, even as it is slipping through their fingers.  One person who sat in the UN General Assembly on Wednesday and listened to Abbas’ speech was the coordinator of government activities in the territories, Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai. In the absence of any clear government policy or decision, he is the one who will have to clean up the mess.

 Not long ago, Hafez Barghouti, editor in chief of the official PA newspaper Al-Hayat al-Jadida, published an article in which he analyzed Abbas’ possible heirs. After going over all the candidates, he crowned Mordechai as the next Palestinian president. Abbas’ speech, in which he declared that Israel, as the occupying power, must take responsibility for the territories, brings the moment when this scenario might actually be realized nearer.  A few minutes after Abbas left the podium, journalists, diplomats and curious onlookers began congregating in the UN Rose Garden for the ceremony at which the Palestinian flag was raised at UN headquarters for the first time. Several foreign ministers also attended, including French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.  The primary task facing these foreign ministers was to push their way into the front row so they could be immortalized at this historic moment. As long as they were being photographed by the flag, they were doing their bit to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  It was a surreal show, half tragic, half comic. Five minutes after the president of Palestine announced to the entire world that he headed a bankrupt country and was soon planning to close up shop, representatives of dozens of countries stood there and applauded a flag- raising that symbolized a virtually reality, one which exists only at UN headquarters in New York.  Despite this theater of the absurd, one shouldn’t make light of the importance this symbolic act holds for the Palestinians. The spontaneous cries of joy that erupted from dozens of Palestinian-Americans who came to the ceremony, the sea of flags that has flooded the Palestinian Authority in recent days and the dozens of television screens erected in major West Bank cities, where entire families gathered to watch the event, are all reminiscent of similar events from Israel’s own history.  Even if no independent state emerges from this in the foreseeable future, for one brief moment, Palestinians could say to themselves, “We’re on the map and we’re staying there.”

Barak Ravid is the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz newspaper. He joined Haaretz in April 2007, covering the Prime Minister's Office, the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense, dealing with issues such as U.S.-Israeli relations, EU-Israeli relations and the peace process.

The Weekly Standard – September 30, 2015 Abbas’s ‘Bombshell’ By Elliott Abrams  The Palestinian press has been saying for weeks that Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas would “drop a bombshell” when he spoke to the United National General Assembly today. In the event, the bomb did not go off.  The speech was mostly a rehash of tired complaints about Israel, some of them linked to reality (occupation is never popular) and others entirely manufactured and irresponsible.  Abbas’s low point came right at the beginning of the speech, when he accused Israel of various crimes defiling the Temple Mount. He said Israel is trying “to impose its plans to undermine the Islamic and Christian sanctuaries in Jerusalem, particularly its actions at Al- Aqsa Mosque.” This is a lie, and given the violence around the Temple Mount in recent weeks it is the kind of lie that can create injuries and loss of life.  Abbas continues to say that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are swallowing it up, which is simply false: the settlements are growing in population but not expanding territorially. As to Gaza, he said Israel “continues its blockade of the Gaza Strip.” But his listeners surely know that it is Egypt that is maintaining a strict blockade, while Israel supplies the vast bulk of food, water, and electricity to Gaza. Abbas’s claim that the PA is “working on spreading the culture of peace and coexistence” is remarkable in view of the repeated glorification of terrorist murderers in school books and the naming of parks and schools after them. A moment of humor, unintentional to be sure, arrived when Abbas said “we seek to hold presidential and legislative elections.” Elected in 2005, he is now in the eleventh year of his own four year term and has shown zero desire to submit himself to the polls again.  As to recent history, Abbas said, “You are all aware that Israel undermined the efforts made by the administration of President Barack Obama in past years, most recently the efforts of Secretary of State John Kerry aimed at reaching a peace agreement through negotiations.” Obama administration officials have revealed that when the crunch came in its efforts to start negotiations, Netanyahu said yes and Abbas said no. It is therefore entirely false to make the claim he did in this speech.  In previous speeches Abbas insisted that he wanted nothing more than real negotiations, though he would then set preconditions that made negotiations nearly impossible. This year, his “bombshell” was a threat to stop negotiating at all. Blaming Israel for the failure of negotiations is of course ahistorical: not only did Abbas say no to Obama, but he also said no to Ehud Olmert’s generous offer in 2008—as Yasser Arafat did to Ehud Barak’s in 2000. But never mind: now the Abbas line is that Israel is violating its Oslo commitments. So, “they leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while Israel continuously violates them. We therefore declare that we cannot continue to be bound by these agreements and that Israel must assume all of its responsibilities as an occupying power.”

 That’s the bombshell part, but what does it mean? Most likely, not much. Logically, he should have said in the next paragraph that he was resigning as head of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority, disbanding the PA, and closing every Palestinian ministry and government office. He should have announced that all security and economic cooperation with Israel was ending. He did not. Nathan Thrall, a keen observer who is head of the International Crisis Group’s Jerusalem office, told the New York Times that Abbas’s line was “a years-old talking point,” “old, old, old, old news,” and “definitely not a bombshell.” Thrall continued: “That is the minimum he could have said. They’ve been saying it for weeks and years: we fulfill our obligations and they don’t fulfill theirs, and we’re not bound by it if they don’t fulfill theirs and the whole thing. I really doubt that there’s something you could really point to that’s novel here, and more important than that, I’m certain that it does not mean any changes practically on the ground.”  Why does Abbas talk himself into a corner this way, where any real or rhetorical bombs that go off are likely to injure him and his own people? Frustration, in part; politics, in part, and the desire to say something that sounds “tough.” And in part, sadly, cynicism: he knows as well or better than we—and his Palestinian listeners—do that these are just more words in yet another UN speech. Elliott Abrams is an American diplomat, lawyer and political scientist who served in foreign policy positions for U.S. Presidents, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.