RPG REPORT Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations TABLE OF CONTENTS
IMPACT DRIVER 3 Customizable Challenge Mode Trials of God in AFK Arena Product Insights
TRENDS 8 Unique Apps with Quest Feature Releases Quest Feature Revenue Quest Features by App AFK Arena Feature Investment NOVEMBER REVENUE MOVEMENT 13 RPG Revenue Growth
NEW CONTENT 15 Content Releases MARKET WATCH 19 2020 Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases
APPENDIX 24 AFK Arena Release Schedule Premium Partnerships RPG Mechanics Taxonomy IMPACT DRIVER
Features and events that boost revenue, retention, or downloads
3 RPG > FEATURES > QUESTS
Customizable Challenge Mode Trials of God in AFK Arena
4 REVENUE ANALYSIS
AFK Arena's revenue was +72% and downloads were -19% MoM for the month after the release of Trials of God. This release follows a large download spike.
See the Appendix for a full release schedule.
AFK Arena
$300K Revenue Downloads 30K Trials of God
$200K 20K Revenue per Day Revenue
$100K 10K Downloads per Day
7/9/20 7/23/20 8/6/20 8/20/20 9/3/20 9/17/20 10/1/20 10/15/20 10/29/20 11/12/20
MoM = Month over month. 5 Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. FEATURE TEARDOWN
Players replay past levels with new, customizable challenges. Levels reward players based on the number and difficulty of challenges completed in a single attempt.
Details 1 2 3 • Within this feature, all heroes are temporarily set to max level. • Players choose challenges called "trials" to apply to trimmed down versions of previously released levels (1 and video). • Trials have different effects that increase difficulty, like temporarily disabling heroes or increasing enemy attack power. • Levels award points based on the chosen trials. • More difficult trials award more points (2). • Trials can be removed during the level but will no longer award points. • A meter rewards players for their highest score in a single attempt (3 and 4). • Players only earn additional rewards for surpassing their high score. • Global, server, and friend leaderboards rank the highest-scoring players (5). • Players receive purchase offers once they reach a certain level (6). 4 5 6 Additional Information • See the Trials of God: The Depths of Time library for more images and videos.
Giving all players max level heroes focuses gameplay on skill and strategy instead of XP levels. At the same time, experienced players still gain an advantage from their deeper equipment and hero rosters, ensuring that they don't feel undervalued.
6 We interviewed three AFK Arena players who spend PRODUCT INSIGHTS $25–$120 per month.
Challenge modes generate feelings of mastery and may drive spend. 1 Completing multiple goals within a single context creates a sense of mastery, like the two medium-spenders who said Trials of God made them feel "like a badass" who was "great at this game."1 This increases players' self-efficacy, which has been found to lead to more ambitious goals.2 And players who want to achieve more will likely be more willing to make purchases. As one high-spender said, "I will be spending money in Trials of God because I want to get further."3 Other popular RPGs use similar mechanics. World of Warcraft's mythic raids offer more difficult versions of past missions for greater rewards.4 Empires & Puzzles' Knights of Avalon let players replay levels at three difficulty tiers to improve their scores, contributing to a +162% WoW revenue increase (1). Like Trials of God, both of these also add leaderboards for even more replayability. Opt-in challenges facilitate flow and maximize accessibility. Player-chosen challenges enable flow—the pleasurable, focused state that occurs when a task is neither too hard nor too easy.5 They also generate intrinsic motivation by rewarding players for performance without forcing them to do anything they don't want to.6 A medium- spender reflected, "It wasn't about points. It was about how far I could go with the most challenges."7 Guild Fest in Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, which increased revenue +16% WoW, took another approach by letting players claim challenges from a club-wide board. 2 To make challenges more interesting, allow players to take bigger risks in exchange for greater rewards. For example, Dead Cells' cursed chests award powerful gear and upgrades but reduce players' health to a single hit for the next 10 enemies.8 These kinds of optional trade-offs ensure that gameplay remains accessible while giving even the most experienced players challenges worthy of their skills.9 A secondary, cumulative reward system would encourage low-level players to try more challenges. Trials of God's single-attempt score system is great for players who can tackle many challenges at once (2). But it may have less to offer for less-skilled players, since they don't gain anything for beating different challenges unless they can exceed their high score. Adding rewards for each individual challenge would drive engagement for these players and give them an incremental way to progress. So while the best players can go big in a single attempt, others can slowly acquire upgrades to make things easier.10
1 Subject A; Age 28 female, $25–$50/month spend, 8 hours/week playtime 4 World of Warcraft Mythic Keystone Dungeon Leaderboards Subject B; Age 24 male, $70/month spend, 15–20 hours/week playtime 5 Cognitive Flow: The Psychology of Great Game Design 8 How Dead Cells Exploits Your Indecision | Psych of Play, 0:45 2 6 9 How Spelunky 2 Fixes Difficulty Levels, 2:45 Cognitive behavioral game design: a unified model for designing serious games The Gamer's Brain, Part 3, 24:55 7 3 Subject C; Age 34 male, $120/month spend, 50 hours/week playtime 7 Subject B ($70/month) 10 Roguelikes, Persistency, and Progression | Game Maker's Toolkit, 3:15 TRENDS
Investment trends for event and feature releases
Tracked RPG Apps: AFK Arena, BLEACH Brave Souls, Dragon Ball Legends, Empires & Puzzles, Epic Seven, Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire, Fire Emblem Heroes, Guns of Glory, King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Last Shelter: Survival, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, MARVEL Strike Force, RAID: Shadow Legends, Rise of Kingdoms, Star Trek Fleet Command, Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, Summoners War
8 MORE APPS INVEST IN QUEST FEATURES
The past six months saw a significant increase in the number of different apps releasing quest features. Four of the preceding six months had no quest feature releases from tracked apps.
Unique Apps with Quest Feature Releases
3
2 Number ofApps 1
Nov '19 Dec Jan '20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 9 AFK ARENA BENEFITS MOST FROM QUEST FEATURES
Among tracked RPGs, AFK Arena saw the greatest revenue impact from quest feature releases during the past six months, averaging +16% revenue MoM per release. The genre-wide average for this period was -3% revenue MoM. Quest Feature Revenue (Past 6 Months)
50%
25%
0%
-25% Average MoM Revenue per Release MoM Revenue Average
-50% AFK Arena Dragon Ball Legends Epic Seven Guns of Glory Rise of Kingdoms
MoM = Month over month. 10 Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. AFK ARENA DOMINATES QUEST FEATURES
AFK Arena was responsible for 60% of all quest features released by tracked apps in the past year. All but one of AFK Arena's quest features were released in the past six months.
Quest Features by App (Past 12 Months)
AFK Arena
Epic Seven
Dragon Ball Legends
Guns of Glory
MARVEL Strike Force
Rise of Kingdoms
3 6 9 12 15
Number of Releases 11 AFK A content features like heroes, equipment, andabilities. This ishighlyunusualfortheRPGgenre. Quest features were Number of Releases 10 2 4 6 8
Quests RENA
Heroes F Equipment AFK Arena AVORS
Accelerators 's mostsignificantinvestmentinthepastthree months, evenoutpacing Q
Abilities UESTS AFK Arena
Clubs O Feature Investment(Past 3Months) Expansions VER
Flows C ONTENT
Missions
Challenges F
Conflicts EATURES
Interactions
Profiles
Purchases
Rewards 12 REVENUE MOVEMENT
Revenue changes within apps and across genres
13 MORE APPS SEE REVENUE GROWTH IN OCTOBER
Monthly revenue grew in 65% of tracked RPGs in October. The period from June to September saw an average of just 28% of RPGs with monthly revenue increases.
RPG Revenue Growth Positive Negative
100%
75%
50% Percentage ofApps Percentage
25%
Nov '19 Dec Jan '20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. 14 NEW CONTENT
New heroes, equipment, and abilities
15 CONTENT RELEASES I
RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes 1 2
10/20 Class Exclusive Artifacts — AFK Arena equipment (1) 10/20 Tango D'Anima Skin — AFK Arena equipment (2) 10/20 The Barricade — AFK Arena equipment 10/22 Bountiful Bolero Skin — AFK Arena equipment 10/28 Ainz Ooal Gown — AFK Arena hero (3) 10/28 Albedo — AFK Arena hero 10/13 New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities 10/16 Burn the Witch Collaboration — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes (4) 3 4 10/23 3 New Accessories! — BLEACH Brave Souls equipment 10/28 New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities 10/31 Thousand-Year Blood War Round 12 — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes 10/7 Super Saiyan Bardock Zenkai Awakening — Dragon Ball Legends abilities 10/14 Awakened Here I come! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment 10/14 Legends All Star Vol. 2 — Dragon Ball Legends heroes (5) 10/14 You'll Pay for That — Dragon Ball Legends equipment 10/21 Super Saiyan 3 Goku Zenkai Awakening — Dragon Ball Legends abilities 10/28 Awakened What a surprise. No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment 10/28 Legends the 6th Universe — Dragon Ball Legends heroes 5 6 10/1 Zulag — Empires & Puzzles hero (6) 10/7 Hero Balance Changes — Empires & Puzzles abilities
16 CONTENT RELEASES II
RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes 1 2
10/14 Ninja Summon — Empires & Puzzles heroes (1) 10/22 Gefjon — Empires & Puzzles hero 10/26 Halloween Heroes — Empires & Puzzles heroes 10/1 Crimson Moon of Nightmares — Epic Seven equipment 10/1 Samsara Prayer Beads — Epic Seven equipment 10/8 Five New 3-Star Heroes — Epic Seven heroes 10/8 Hero Balance Adjustments — Epic Seven abilities 10/8 Last Teatime — Epic Seven equipment 3 4 10/8 New 3-Star Cyborg Heroes — Epic Seven heroes 10/15 Double-Edged Decrescent — Epic Seven equipment 10/15 Ervalen — Epic Seven hero (2) 10/23 Faithless Lidica: Victorious Knight Skin — Epic Seven equipment 10/29 Magic Scholar Doris Specialty Change — Epic Seven abilities 10/29 Top Model Luluca — Epic Seven hero (3) 10/29 Two New Exclusive Equipment — Epic Seven equipment 10/7 Weapon Refinery Update! — Fire Emblem Heroes abilities 10/8 Special Heroes: Dragons Harvest — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (4) 10/9 Ena: Autumn Tactician — Fire Emblem Heroes hero 5 6 10/10 Takumi: Wild Card — Fire Emblem Heroes hero (5) 10/19 Goddess's Servants — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (6)
17 CONTENT RELEASES III
RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes 1 2
10/20 Nemesis: King of Liberation — Fire Emblem Heroes hero 10/25 Caeda: Talys's Heart — Fire Emblem Heroes hero 10/30 Dimitri: Savior King — Fire Emblem Heroes hero 10/12 Bloodtooth Set — Guns of Glory equipment (1) 10/28 Raven Hero Weapon — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare equipment 10/8 Chronicler — Lords Mobile: War Kingdom hero (2) 10/16 Hootclaw Set — Lords Mobile: War Kingdom equipment 10/7 She-Hulk — MARVEL Strike Force hero 3 4 10/9 Scream — MARVEL Strike Force hero (3) 10/19 Anti-Venom — MARVEL Strike Force hero 10/5 Vergumkaar and New Champions — Raid: Shadow Legends heroes 10/29 Lydia the Deathsiren — Raid: Shadow Legends hero 10/30 Halloween Champions — Raid: Shadow Legends heroes (4) 10/17 Harald Sigurdsson — Rise of Kingdoms hero 10/19 Zenobia — Rise of Kingdoms hero (5) 10/6 Discovery Part 2 Officers — Star Trek Fleet Command heroes (6) 10/6 USS Discovery Summoning — Star Trek Fleet Command abilities 10/7 Jedi Master Luke Skywalker — Star Wars Galaxy of Heroes hero 5 6 10/7 Sith Eternal Emperor — Star Wars Galaxy of Heroes hero 10/15 Halloween Special Transmogrifications — Summoners War equipment
18 MARKET WATCH
New apps and notable releases from established competitors
19 SOFT-LAUNCH APP 1
MARVEL Realm of Champions by Kabam Games App Details • This follow-up to MARVEL Contest of Champions is a MOBA action brawler with up to six- person multiplayer (1). 2 • Players customize iconic Marvel characters with a wide variety of gear and weapons (2). • A PvE mode has players defend against waves of enemies (3). • PvP modes include a 3v3 king of the hill battle and a 2v2v2 deathmatch (4). • Players who pre-register through the app's website will receive gear and resources at launch. Launch Information • Soft-launched on 8/17/20 in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, and the Philippines • Average daily revenue (90 days): $145 3 • Average daily downloads (90 days): 5,990 • View MARVEL Realm of Champions on the App Store
Liquid & Grit's Take Kabam Games' MARVEL Contest of Champions consistently ranks among the 10 highest- grossing F2P adventure games, and Marvel might be the hottest IP on the planet. So it may seem like MARVEL Realm of Champions is all but guaranteed to succeed. 4 As a PvP-focused MOBA, however, Realm of Champions represents fundamentally different territory. MOBAs live and die by their competitive balance, matchmaking, and community. So when MOBAs don't land with players, they tend to fall hard—and few ever recover. And while players get to customize Marvel heroes for the first time, there are only six for now. Compared to Contest of Champions' 176 heroes, this could be seen as a downgrade. Realm of Champions' long-term success is far from certain. But given the loyalty of MOBA players and Marvel fans, it will likely be a big win if Kabam can pull it off. 20 BREAKOUT APPS 1
Illusion Connect by Chameleon Games App Details • This app combines turn-based combat, card battle mechanics, relationship sims, and custom design (1). • Players cultivate relationships with over 50 heroes to improve their power. 2 • A customizable base provides boosts and generates resources on idle (2). • Getting a perfect score on a level unlocks multiple replay modes. Launch Information • Released worldwide on 10/21/20 • 31st highest-grossing RPG app as of 11/1/20 • Average daily U.S. revenue since launch: $68,203 • Average daily U.S. downloads since launch: 8,563 • View Illusion Connect on the App Store 3 4
Puzzles & Survival by 37Games App Details • This match-3 RPG is set in a zombie apocalypse. • Colored matches damage corresponding zombie enemies and bosses (3). • Players build and upgrade cities to collect resources and improve abilities (4). • Challenges are grouped into chapters that grant rewards upon completion. Launch Information • Released worldwide on 9/30/20 • 41st highest-grossing RPG app as of 11/1/20 • Average daily U.S. revenue since launch: $16,315 • Average daily U.S. downloads since launch: 3,946 • View Puzzles & Survival on the App Store 21 1 NOTABLE RELEASES I
App Release Description
Markiplier Goes • YouTube celebrity Markiplier appears as an interactive NPC (1). AFK Arena AFK • Markiplier provides game tips via voice-over narration (video). 2 other event
Emblem Economy • This update to the emblem upgrade feature includes player-friendly economy changes (video). Changes • Changes include decreased talent costs, increased emblem rewards, new purchasable emblem level feature packs, and a 20% refund added to reset emblems (2).
• Players complete increasingly difficult missions to earn points and climb a tower (3). 3 Empires & • Points are based on defeated enemies, completion speed, remaining hero health, and more. Puzzles • Certain missions include special conditions which further increase difficulty. Ninja Tower • Missions contain stones that must be destroyed within a time limit (video). mission event • Undestroyed stones curse a random hero. • Heroes that are cursed twice are unplayable for the rest of the event. • Certain missions award boosts to all heroes for the rest of the event. • Leaderboards rank players based on their highest level reached. 4
• Consecutive logins award VIP points. New VIP System • VIP points fill a meter to upgrade VIP levels (video). Guns of Glory reward feature • VIP levels award daily chests, fixed benefits, and exclusive purchase deals (4). • Previously, players needed to use items to activate timed VIP benefits.
22 NOTABLE RELEASES II
App Release Description 1
• This multi-event tied to AppLovin's acquisition of Final Fantasy publisher Machine Zone includes gifts, contests, daily boosts, and an event store. • Event content includes solo, guild, realm vs. realm, and a new battle royale. Final Fantasy Player Appreciation • Players earn tokens from events, daily logins, purchases, leaderboards, and more. XV: A New Week • Tokens are used to buy rewards, including exclusive avatars. Empire collection event • Tokens also fill a game-wide meter that rewards all players at milestones. 2 • All players receive a catch-up item that upgrades stats, boosts, buildings, summons, and VIP levels up to a certain level (video). • Players can choose to exchange their catch-up item for tokens (1).
• Summon streaks that fail to yield any rare heroes activate a boost (2). Raid: Shadow Mercy System • The boost increases the odds of getting a rare hero for each shard summoned. Legends reward feature 3 • Successfully summoning a rare hero resets odds back to normal.
Alliance Gift • Limited-time IAP bundles contain two types of alliance gift tokens. Star Trek Fleet Currencies Command • Gift tokens are used to buy packs of resources and boosts in the alliance store (3). purchase event
Quickly review all features and events
Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases. 23 APPENDIX
24 AFK ARENA RELEASE SCHEDULE
Releases
9/28–ongoing: Destiny's Choice reward event 10/20: Wandering Balloon: The Frozen Hinterland quest feature 9/29–10/20: Abyssal Expedition Update club event 10/20–11/3: Magician Hat collection event 10/3–10/31: The Misty Valley quest event 10/22: Bountiful Bolero Skin equipment content 10/10–ongoing: Markiplier Goes AFK other event 10/25–11/1: Dreamland Doubles club event 10/16–10/27: Voyage of Wonders: Cinder Grottoes quest event 10/26: $99.99 Pack IAP moved +1 to #6 10/17–10/24: Bountiful Bounties accelerator event 10/28: Ainz Ooal Gown hero content 10/20: Achievements Update challenge feature 10/28: Albedo hero content 10/20: Class Exclusive Artifacts equipment content 10/28–11/11: Bountiful Trials: Ainz Ooal Gown quest event 10/20: Tango D'Anima Skin equipment content 10/28–11/11: Bountiful Trials: Albedo quest event 10/20: The Barricade equipment content 10/28–ongoing: Dimensional Heroes Promotion purchase event 10/20: The Forsaken Family Union expansion feature 10/28–ongoing: AFK Arena x Overlord reward event 10/20: The Oak Inn Update accelerator feature 10/29–11/12: Voyage of Wonders: The Realm of Denial quest event 10/20: Trials of God quest feature 10/30: $14.99 Pack IAP moved +3 to #5 10/20: Trials of God: The Depths of Time quest feature
AFK Arena Downloads per Day
$300K Revenue Downloads Trials of God 30K
$200K 20K
$100K 10K Revenue per Day Revenue
7/9/20 7/23/20 8/6/20 8/20/20 9/3/20 9/17/20 10/1/20 10/15/20 10/29/20 11/12/20
Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. 25 PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS
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26 RPG MECHANICS TAXONOMY
Family Definition Family Definition
Accelerators Increases the power, impact, or efficiency of play Hazards Level elements/blockers that make levels more difficult
Banks Saves a % of spend that can be unlocked later Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction
Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E) Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards
Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete Levels Anything to do with leveling
Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within a game (e.g., scratch cards) Collections A set of items players collect (often for a completion prize) Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must complete Competitions Players competing against other players Notices Feature or product announcements Conflicts Players engaging in battle with their characters Other Miscellaneous features and outliers Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or a feature Profiles Players' setups, profiles, settings, and controls Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items Purchases Anything to do with purchases Custom Design Options to customize aesthetics
Quests Tasks that players complete to progress along a map Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc. Rewards players receive for engagement or spend (other than Rewards Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys those in the bonuses family)
27 "It is not the one possessing the greatest power which is important!! It is the one who uses his power wisely..."
— Thor, Journey into Mystery, Vol. 1 #112
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