INVESTMENT STRATEGY, VACANCY AND CAP RATES † Eli Beracha Associate Professor of Real Estate Director, Hollo School of Real Estate Florida International University, 1101 Brickell Avenue Suite 1100 S, Miami, FL 33131 305-779-7906
[email protected] David H. Downs Professor, Alfred L. Blake Endowed Chair Director, The Kornblau Institute Kornblau Real Estate Program Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business Richmond, VA 23284-4000 804-475-9125
[email protected] Greg MacKinnon Director of Research Pension Real Estate Association 100 Pearl Street, 13th floor Hartford CT 06103 806-785-3847
[email protected] Abstract In this paper we examine whether and to what extent the vacancy of a commercial real estate property is related to its valuation and investment performance. Using data on individual properties, we find that high- vacancy properties are associated with lower cap rates, which suggests the expectation for higher future NOI growth from the potential occupancy of vacant space. Consistent with these expectations, we also find that, on average, high-vacancy properties are associated with higher future NOI growth compared with low-vacancy properties. On the other hand, we find evidence that the investment performance of high-vacancy properties is inferior to the performance of low-vacancy properties, on average. Overall, these results suggest an overvaluation of vacant space. This version: February 22, 2019 † We thank the Real Estate Research Institute for a research grant. We also thank the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries and CoStar for providing their commercial real estate data. INVESTMENT STRATEGY, VACANCY AND CAP RATES Introduction: The vacant space associated with commercial real estate (CRE) properties can be viewed by investors as an option for additional revenue in the event the vacant space is occupied.