POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project

August 2014

www.hayyabina.org POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

PollingMethodology Dahiyeh Achievings part of itsan ongoing Open, researchQuantitative activities, and Hayya Community-Based he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 UnderstandingABina contracted of with Lebanon’s a regionally Shia based Community Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a As Hezbollah’s military, political and organizational Amal was destined to handle a substantial portion of the and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and capabilities continued to rise, the Lebanese Shia Shia pie in Lebanon’s confessional system thanks to the poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the community seemed to fade! And while that outcome Syrian-IranianFebruary 25, appreciation and all respondents of their mutual were influenceShia Muslims. over mayquestions. seem Basedcontradictory, on the results rather oflike that being test, unable some to that community, from the 1980s on, Lebanese Shia were seerevisions the forest were for made the trees, to improve it deserves the respondents’appropriate not usually identified with Amal and Hezbollah. Rather, considerationability to understand in light of the the questions regional beingmaelstrom asked. from they were seen as synonymous with Hezbollah alone. which it is becoming increasingly evident that Lebanon Over time, impromptu conversation ceased making Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of cannot escape. any distinction between the two and began to use T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field “Hezbollah” and “Shia” interchangeably. Today, even the Assurveyors we begin, in Dahiyeh, let’s forget specifically about the the Shia-born areas ofLebanese communitysuburbs of itself Beirut has (known adopted collectively that commutable as “Dahiyeh”) identity. (as defined by the Lebanese confessional system) that—at Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. least in principle—reject any political movement driven by Despite Hezbollah having asserted its “representation” of Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three religion. Let’s also ignore the members of Lebanon’s Shia large sectors of the Lebanese Shia community (although communityarea known who as “security oppose Hezbollah square,” whichfor political is home reasons. to in thisstages. context, First, thethe very probability notion ofproportional representation to size must (PPS) be Instead,most of Hezbollah'slet’s refresh ouroffices minds and by boasts remembering the highest that deconstructed—andsampling technique not was just used from toan determine electoral or that political 60 oncedegree upon of local a time, security, Hezbollah was did not not included exist. Back in the then, the viewpoint),(of n = 600) the clusters mutual shouldidentity be of theconsidered organization the primary Lebanese Shia scene was essentially dominated (albeit and the community was usually misinterpreted despite survey. sampling unit for this activity. for a short period) by the Amal Movement! But while numerous attempts by observers of Lebanese and Shia POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodologyissues to define that symbiosis. Essentially, those results say on their behalf or what election results may suggest can only be likened to “color blindness.” That myopic as being their will. Accordingly, Hayya Bina commenced s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 tendency even affected the scholarly milieu, which a project in 2013 titled “Polling Dahiyeh.” So far, that Aalso attemptedBina contracted to understand with a regionally the behavior based of the initiativeTmales has and consisted 300 females) of two public who represented opinion polls a Lebaneseresearch firm Shia to community conduct a from groundbreaking Hezbollah’s perspective, public intendedvariety toof getsocial a firsthand classes, agesidea andof where educational members of the community stand on a series of important issues. includingopinion poll the of community’s Dahiyeh residents. voluntary Once adherence Hayya Binato backgrounds. The survey was administered via a that organization. Unfortunately, they neglected to and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot The ability to acquire and disseminate a quantitative, assess the situation from the other perspective: that of “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and community-based wealth of information about thepoll peoplewas taken involved! to assess Of course, the effectiveness that “color ofblindness” the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Lebanon’s Shia community is tantamount to recognizing wasquestions. exacerbated Based onover the time results by theof that secretive test, some seclusion that demographic as a diverse and evolving body. At Hezbollah imposed on the Lebanese Shia community, revisions were made to improve the respondents’ the same time, it compels us to cease regarding that which effectively stymied any attempt to assess the ability to understand the questions being asked. community as a monolith that is unaffected by the true conditions within the Lebanese Shia community Finally, under the supervision of a single field passagehe selectionof time. Ultimately, process was these based data on should an estimate convince of by equating such efforts to breaches of security that us to stop viewing the Lebanese Shia community from an manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern could impair the cohesion of the mythical “People of the ideological perspective, whether that viewpoint relates to suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Resistance.”surveyors in Dahiyeh,This predilection specifically with “security”the areas hasof indeed Hezbollah or any of its opponents. becomeChiyyah, anHaret organic Hreik, feature Ghobeiry, of daily Bourj life al-Barajneh, in most of the Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. areas Hezbollah controls. Considering the benefits of this initiative, it is easy Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three to understand the importance of repeating the stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Inarea view known of these as “securityand similar square,” challenges, which through is home Hayya to exercise. It is also imperative that it be applied to other Bina’smost of efforts Hezbollah's to constantly offices refresh and boasts its fieldwork the highest and Lebanesesampling communities, technique wasas the used data to thesedetermine assessments that 60 analyses,degree of our local organization security, was continues not included to believe in the that the yield(of become n = 600) increasinglyclusters should important be considered at a time the when primary community of Lebanese Shia have a great deal more Lebanon’s political/security turmoil is being described survey. sampling unit for this activity. on their minds than what Hezbollah (and/or Amal) may more often than not as an “existential crisis.” POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

MethodologyAs mentioned above, this is the second Dahiyeh poll At this point, the impact the Syrian war has made on the Hayya Bina has conducted (along with a specialized Lebanese Shia community seems immeasurable and s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 company) since that neighborhood can be construed therefore comparable only to the deleterious effects the Aas representativeBina contracted of the with various a regionally Lebanese based Shia political, communityTmales experiencedand 300 females) due to who the representedJuly War of 2006. a In socialresearch and firm economic to conduct profiles a groundbreaking and sensitivities1 .public The contrastvariety to of the social aftermath classes, of ages that warand when educational Hezbollah’s first poll took place in February 2013 and the most propaganda machine ascribed to the Lebanese Shia opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a recent was conducted in March of this year. While community an almost biblical sense of prowess by and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot both polls indicated that as a collective, the Lebanese characterizing“door-to-door” the techniqueoutcome of between that conflict February as a “Divine4 and Shiapoll wascommunity taken to is assessin the ascent,the effectiveness the chief contrast of the Victory”February (a dramatization 25, and all respondents the community were largely Shia Muslims. chose betweenquestions. them Based is thaton the in the results intervening of that test,14 months, some Shia to believe), the Syrian war appears to be rectifying that opinionsrevisions havewere beenmade shaped to improve less by the domestic respondents’ Lebanese communal hubris. By August 2014, it has become clear considerations than by the Syrian “factor.” Specifically, that the era of the “swollen ego” has passed. Today, the ability to understand the questions being asked. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict was Lebanesehe selection Shia community—Hassan process was based Nasrallah on an estimateincluded— of responsibleFinally, under for the having supervision created of new a single living fieldconditions is steadily moving away from that self-professed divinity 698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern characterizedmanager, the bypoll the was prevalence administered of security by 25 fieldmeasures, an andT rediscovering the inescapable principles of reality. In escalationsurveyors in of Dahiyeh, Shia-Sunni specifically sectarian strifethe areas and a of dramatic doingsuburbs so, the of communityBeirut (known is experiencing collectively asevery “Dahiyeh”) example 2 downturnChiyyah, Haretin the Hreik,local economy.Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of theof the trauma 10,560 such clusters a shift situated imposes throughout. Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 1degree The results ofof “Pollinglocal Dahiyehsecurity, 2013” was are notavailable included for review in at: the www.ShiaWatch.co m (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary 2 To commemorate the eighth anniversary of the July 2006 war, al-Akhbar published a rambling, two-part interview with Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.survey. For the first time, many of the questions asked were personal and family oriented.sampling Quite obviously, unit for the interviewthis activity. was intended to bolster Hezbollah’s image as a “human” organization, since its tone helped distinguish Hezbollah from other organizations considered to adhere to an “inhuman” form of Islam. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

MethodologyWhy Dahiyeh? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 In spring 2013, Hayya Bina conducted the first in a series of polls that examine ABina contractedattitudes with among a regionally Lebanese based Shia on a range of Tsociopolitical/socioeconomicmales and 300 females) who issues. represented a research firm to conductIn that first a groundbreakingsurvey, the sample public was culled exclusivelyvariety from of social the southern classes, agessuburbs and of educational opinion poll of DahiyehBeirut, an residents. area referred Once Hayyato collectively Bina as Dahiyeh.backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalizedDue to internalthe questionnaire, displacement a pilot and migrations since“door-to-door” the 1970s, Dahiyehtechnique has between become February 4 and poll was taken tobroadly assess therepresentative effectiveness of ofLebanon’s the Shia and servesFebruary as the25, andpolitical all respondents hub for the were Shia Muslims. questions. Basedcommunity’s on the results leading of that politicaltest, some institution, Hezbollah. Thus, Dahiyeh is an ideal setting revisions were madefor quantitative to improve examinationthe respondents’ of this important population. ability to understandIn the the year questions since the being initial asked. survey, a number of developments, both national Finally, under theand supervision regional, of have a single directly field implicated Lebanon’she Shia, selection specifically process those was living based in on an estimate of Dahiyeh. These include: manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh,• specifically Hezbollah’s the increased areas of involvement in thesuburbs Syrian conflict,of Beirut (knownincluding collectively its role in as “Dahiyeh”) the Assad regime’s war efforts such as the recapture of the strategic region of Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Qalamoun Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three The reemergence of car bombs and suicide bombers in Beirut, the majority area known as “security• square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) of which have targeted Dahiyeh and its outskirts since 2013 most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 The “fortification” of Dahiyeh by state security institutions—in concert with degree of local security,• was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary Hezbollah—to contain threats to the Shia community for which Dahiyeh is a survey. sampling unit for this activity. conspicuous symbol POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology • Economic paralysis in Dahiyeh due to the security situation s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 • Marked rise in Sunni-Shia tensions in Lebanon due to respective communal Bina contracted with a regionally based males and 300 females) who represented a A sentiments towards the crisis in neighboringT Syria and the impact being felt research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public across Lebanon (which manifests itself in thevariety ongoing of social strife classes,in Tripoli, ages instability and educational opinion poll of Dahiyehalong residents. the border Once region Hayya where Bina hundreds ofbackgrounds. thousands of The Syrian survey refugees was administered are via a and its partner finalizedsheltering, the questionnaire, and the bombings a pilot in Dahiyeh itself).“door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken toTo assess gauge the the effectiveness overall impact of the of these developmentsFebruary on 25,Shia and attitudes all respondents in Lebanon, were Shia Muslims. questions. BasedHayya on the Bina results again of that polled test, Dahiyeh some residents in March 2014. revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology METHODOLOGY • The survey was overseen by Hayya Bina, which also provided the analysis and s part of its ongoingpresentation. research Fieldwork activities, was Hayya conducted by a heregional sample research group consisted company, of and 600 waspeople (300 ABina contractedadministered with a regionally by 20 based field workers. Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct• The a surveygroundbreaking was conducted public March 18 to varietyMarch 31,of social 2014 classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh• The residents. sample Once size was Hayya 600 Binamen and womenbackgrounds. (50/50) over The the survey age of was 18, administeredwhich was via a identical to Hayya Bina’s 2013 poll and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and The sample by neighborhood and frequency: Chiyah-Ghobeiry: 150 (25%); Haret poll was taken to assess• the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Hreik: 150 (25%); Bourj al-Barajneh:150 (25%), Hay al-Selloum:150 (25%) questions. Based on the results of that test, some The sample was drawn using the Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) sampling revisions were made• to improve the respondents’ technique ability to understand the questions being asked. • Interviews were conducted face-to-face Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of • Statistical data analysis was conducted using SPSS 21 manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern • Calculated margin of error: +/-4.9% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) • Response rate for this survey was 48% (compared to 65% for the 2013 survey) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Figures in charts or tables may not add up to 100% due to rounding Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum.• The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLINGPOLLIN GDAHIYEH DAHIYEH A HayyaA Hayya Bina Bina Project Project MayMay 20132013 Southern Suburb of Beirut Why Dahiyeh? El-Solh

MethodologyLegend Sami WhilMosquese the in w Southernord DaSuburbshiyeh #*s partSuburbs oflandmarks its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300

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AL Jnah Street researchmajorTahwitet cfirmit Ghadiry), to isClusters sconducturrounded a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational Lailake Clusters 611

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Southernlexicon suburbs ultimately 522 AL Ja 511 OldAirport Highway i and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot 500 Boulevard Al Ghbair m Borj el Brajneh “door-to-door” techniqueeh AL Kabeer Street between February 4 and

aan Road RawdatAl Chahidian Street defined the term as 766 Al Moqawama-Attahrir S 466 Chiyah 465 782 Chiyah AL Chaam Main Road poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the 778 Old Saida Road “the southern suburb of 762 February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Haret Hreyk Henri Chehab Street Leylakeh 968 Highway reet questions.Beirut.” ThBasedat me onaning the results of that test, some 382 388 treet 387 Tahwitet el Ghadir OldAirport Henri Chehab St can trace its roots to 360 365 ard Haret Hreyk revisionsSuburbs Clusters were made to improve the respondents’ 332

Areathe sociodemographic 339 AL RAYA Field OldAirport Highway *# ability to0.000947 understand - 6560.347626 the questions being asked. 314 301 304 Moujamaa Sayed AL Shuhadaa

change that began to AsadAL Boulev Hafiz 296 6560.347627 - 17377.011945 *# Al Kaem Mosque 289 293

Hafiz AL AsadAL BoulevardHafiz he selection process was based on an estimate of Finally, under the supervision of a single field AL Ouzai-Borj EL Barajni Road affect17377.011946 this pa - 33791.788441rt of Beirut in Southern Suburb of Beirut 850 33791.788442 - 59699.262387 Southern Suburb of Beirut the early 1960s. T698848 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field 847 OldAirport Highway 259 59699.262388 - 104275.445362 BoulevardAL Ouzai Southern SuburbRassoul ofAl Aazam Beirut Mosque Legend El Maramel Road 104275.445363 - 186519.076178 Southern Suburbsuburbs 879of Beirut of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of Al Hussein Mosque LegendMosques in Southern Suburbs Southern925 Suburb of Beirut Borj el Brajneh 186519.076179 - 500746.156239 889 216 ora Street oad Legend#* MosquesSuburbs landmarks in Southern Suburbs of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Chiyyah,primary Haret Streets Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir 204 El Maramel R Al Maam

Legend#* MosquesSuburbsChiyahChiyyah Clusters landmarks in Southern clusters Suburbs AsadAL Boulevard Hafiz 197 AerialChiyah-Ghobeiry Photo clusters 891 OldAirport Population Highway sampling was accomplished in three Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik 892 Legend#* SuburbsHaretMosquesChiyah Hreik Clusters landmarks in ClustersSouthern Suburbs 897 RGB(Including Bir Hassan) 131 135 #* Red:HaretChiyahTahwitetSuburbsMosquesHaret Band_1Hreik Clusters Ghadirlandmarks in Hreik ClustersSouthern Clusters clusters Suburbs area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability94 proportional to size (PPS) 85 #* 611 72 Green:HaretTahwitetLailakeChiyahSuburbs Band_2Hreik Clusters Ghadirlandmarks Clusters Clusters Haret Hreik clusters 68 902 OldAirport Highway 63 65 54 ChiyahTahwitet Clusters al-Ghadeer clusters 611 904 57 53 TahwitetHaretLailakeBorj El Hreik brajnehClusters Ghadir Clusters Clusters Clusters 52 NasrallahBoulevard Hadi most ofBlue: Hezbollah's Band_3 offices and boasts the highest sampling technique49 was used to determine that 60 39 Leylakeh 41 905 43 BorjHaret El Hreik brajneh Clusters Clusters 611 SouthernHay LailakeTahwitetal-Selloum suburbs Clusters Ghadir Clusters clusters Tahwitet el Ghadir degreeSouthern(Including BorjLailakeTahwitetofLaylake-Solloum Elel suburbslocal Brajneh Laylake-TahwitatbrajnehClusters Ghadir Clusters Clusters security, clusters al-Ghadir) was not included in the (of611 n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary

OldAirport Highway 611 survey.SouthernBorjChiyahLailake elElsuburbs Brajneh brajnehClusters Clusters sampling unit for this activity. SouthernBourjBorjChiyahHaret Burjal-Barajneh elElsuburbs Hreyk Brajneh brajnehal-Barajneh Clusters clusters clusters SouthernChiyahBorjHaretLeylakeh elsuburbs Hreyk Brajneh HaretTahwitetChiyahLeylakehBorj el Hreyk Brajneh el Ghadir ¯ POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 Selective timeline MethodologyOctober 2013 – March 2014 s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 AOctoberBina 2013 contracted with a regionally based 4 THezbollahmales andaccuses 300 Israel females) of having who assassinated represented one a of its top 4 A new security plan for Tripoli is announced security officer in Beirut’s southern suburb 8research In an effort firm to to ease conduct tensions a betweengroundbreaking Sunni and publicShia, 6 varietyClashes ofin Tripolisocial between classes, Sunni ages groups and andeducational the LAF Hezbollah announces the dissolution of its Saida branch of the 15 A soldier is killed in a suicide attack at an LAF checkpoint “Resistanceopinion poll Brigades” of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina nearbackgrounds. Saida The survey was administered via a 10and The its Special partner Tribunal finalized for Lebanon the questionnaire, accuses a fifth a pilotHezbollah 17 “door-to-door”An explosion rocks technique a Hezbollah between camp in the February Bekaa 4 and member of involvement in the assassination of former Prime 22 A random altercation between two families evolves into Ministerpoll was Rafik taken Hariri to assess the effectiveness of the Sunni-ShiaFebruary fighting 25, and in the all westrespondents Bekaa village were of SawireShia Muslims. 13questions. A car bomb Based is dismantled on the results in Dahiyeh of that test, some 27 Former minister Mohammed Shatah is assassinated by a car 19 The Lebanese Shia kidnapped in northern Syria and the bomb in downtown Beirut Turkishrevisions pilots were are released.made to improve the respondents’ 29 President Michel Suleiman announces that Saudi Arabia has offered the LAF $3 billion worth of equipment from France Novemberability to understand 2013 the questions being asked. 30 LAF fires on Syrian aircraft over Arsal. 5Finally, Ali Eid, under the leader the supervision of Lebanon’s of Alawi a single community, field is accused he selection process was based on an estimate of of involvement in the bombing of two Sunni mosques in Tripoli January 2014 12manager, A member the of pollthe pro-Hezbollahwas administered “Islamic by Action 25 field Front” is 1 TLAF698 intelligence “clusters” arrests of Shia Saudi Muslims national living Majed in al-Majed the southern assassinated in Tripoli accusedsuburbs of mastermindingof Beirut (known the Qaeda-affiliatedcollectively as “Dahiyeh”)Abdullah Azzam 19surveyors A pair of in suicide Dahiyeh, bombings specifically target the the Iranian areas Embassy of Brigades locatedChiyyah, in Beirut’sHaret Hreik,southern Ghobeiry, suburb Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir 2 ofSuicide the 10,560 bombing clusters in Haret situated Hreik throughout Lebanon. 23 A car bomb is discovered near Baalbek 4 The LAF announces the death of Majed al-Majed 25Hassan, Clashes Ouzaii erupt andbetween Laylake-Solloum. Christian and Hezbollah-affiliated The Haret Hreik PopulationBurning of Tripoli’s sampling historical was bookshop accomplished “as-Saeh,” in whichthree studentsarea known at Université as “security Saint-Joseph square,” which is home to belongsstages. to aFirst, Greek the Orthodox probability cleric proportional to size (PPS) 30 Another round of violence begins in Tripoli. 15 LAF intelligence arrests another senior member of the most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest Abdullahsampling Azzam technique Brigades in was the usedSunni Bekaato determine west that 60 December 2013 16 The STL officially convenes sessions in The Hague 2degree The LAF of is local given security, a new mandate was not to includedpacify Tripoli in the (ofSuicide n = 600)bombing clusters in Hermel should be considered the primary survey. An explosion in the Ayn el-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp 17 samplingHeavy shelling unit occurs for this in activity. Arsal killing seven people kills one and injures four 21 Suicide bombing in Haret Hreik. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

MethodologyFebruary 2014 March 2014 1 Suicide bombing at a gas station in Hermel 1 President Michel Suleiman describes Hezbollah’s motto 3 Suicides part bombing of its ongoing in Shoueifat research (south of activities, Dahiyeh) ofHayya a minibus (“Army,he People, sample Resistance”) group consisted of being aof hollow 600 people stereotype, (300 headed to Dahiyeh which prompts harsh responses from Hezbollah and its affiliates Bina contracted with a regionally based males and 300 females) who represented a A4 Shia residents of Hermel warn Arsal residents who do not TThe “nuns of Maaloula” (Qalamoun) are freed thanks to support the takfiri to leave the village within 48 hours research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public Qatari intercession which was assisted by Lebanese General 12 In Beirut, LAF intelligence agents arrest Naim Abbas, who variety of social classes, ages and educational Abbas Ibrahim (director general of the General Security office) isopinion accused poll of beingof Dahiyeh an explosives residents. expert Once working Hayya for radical Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a Islamist groups 11 A senior Palestinian officer is assassinated in the Ain el-Helwe and The its LAF partner intercepts finalized a car theladen questionnaire, with explosives aas pilot it departs camp“door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Arsal—threepoll was taken female to passengersassess the wereeffectiveness in the vehicle of the 13 A new round of violence erupts in Tripoli 15 Eleven months and three weeks after the resignation of Najib 14 FebruaryA roadside 25, bomb and hits all an respondents Israeli patrol inwere the Shebaa Shia Muslims. Farms Mikati’squestions. government, Based on Tammam the results Salam of succeedsthat test, in some forming a area newrevisions Lebanese were government made to improve the respondents’ 15 The Syrian army, assisted by Hezbollah, takes over the city of 16 Shelling in Arsal kills eight and wounds 15 Yabrood (Qalamoun) 19ability Twin to suicide understand bombing the of the questions Iranian Cultural being Centerasked. (Dahiyeh) Several rockets hit Shia villages near Arsal 20 Assassination of a senior Alawi figure in Tripoli 16 Suicidehe selection attack against process a Hezbollah was based patrol on in Nabian estimate Sheet of 23Finally, Suicide under attack the at supervision an LAF checkpoint of a single in Hermel field (Northern Bekaa) 24 An investigation judge of the military court sentences T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field 20 Tammam Salam’s cabinet passes the confidence vote Alawi leader Ali Eid to death for the role he played in the twin bombingssurveyors that in Dahiyeh, targeted Sunnispecifically mosques the in Tripoli areas in ofAugust 2013 23 suburbsAn armed of clash Beirut takes (known place collectivelybetween Hezbollah as “Dahiyeh”) and radical Islamists near Beirut Stadium 28 An investigation judge of the military court sentences Sheikh of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. AhmadChiyyah, al AssirHaret and Hreik, 56 others Ghobeiry, to death Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir 29 Suicide bombing of an LAF outpost in Arsal Heights killing three Hassan, A raid Ouzaiiis conducted and Laylake-Solloum. against a Hezbollah The position Haret along Hreik the 31 PopulationThe National samplingDialogue Table was meetsaccomplished at the presidential in three palace Lebanese-Syrian border. without Hezbollah participation. area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

MethodologyMAIN FINDINGS Country headed in the wrong direction: 59% of Dahiyeh’s residents believe s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 that Lebanon is heading in the “wrong direction.”Additionally, 74% say that their ABina contractedfinancial with situationa regionally is worse based than it was a year ago.Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational Shia identity on the rise: Results indicate a rising strength of “Shia” identity with opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina 46% of respondents saying that it is their greatestbackgrounds. source of pride. The surveySelf-identification was administered via a and its partner finalizedwith being the Shiaquestionnaire, was strongest a pilot among respondents“door-to-door” aged 18-29. technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Support for Political Leaders: 53% of respondents say Hassan Nasrallah is the questions. Based on the results of that test, some leader they trust most, followed by Nabih Berri at 18% – a boost for both from a year revisions were madeago. to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Shia-Sunni tensions running high: 59% view theirhe community’s selection process relationship was based with on an estimate of Finally, under theSunnis supervision as “bad” of a or single “very field bad.” Significantly, 90% of those queried view “decreasing manager, the pollsectarianism” was administered as a national by 25 field priority for the comingT698 10 years.“clusters” In comparison, of Shia Muslims 76% living of in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh,those specifically polled see thethe areasrelationship of with the Christiansuburbs community of Beirut as (known good. collectively as “Dahiyeh”) of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Shia Ghobeiry, seek a bigger Bourj al-Barajneh, piece of the Bir power-sharing pie: 86% believe the Taif Hassan, Ouzaii andAgreement Laylake-Solloum. needs to The be revisited.Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Support for Elections: 75% of Dahiyeh’s residents say they would like to see most of Hezbollah'sparliamentary offices and elections boasts the held highest this year. sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary Support for Hezbollah in Syria: While 75% of respondents say they know survey. sampling unit for this activity. someone killed in the fighting in Syria, 95% say the community supports Hezbollah’s POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology involvement there. Respondents also believe Hezbollah’s intervention has made s part of its themongoing more research secure activities,(83%), and Hayya a majority (66%) believehe sample that Hezbollah group consisted is fighting of 600 in people (300 ABina contractedSyria onwith behalf a regionally of Lebanon. based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational Iran-U.S. Dialogue: 62% of respondents believe that the Shia community will opinion poll of Dahiyehbenefit residents. from dialogue Once Hayyabetween Bina Iran and the U.S.backgrounds. while 37% believeThe survey otherwise. was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Lebanese state and “Resistance” both play an important security role: 44.9% of poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the respondents said Lebanese state institutions wereFebruary providing 25, andsecurity all respondents in their area were Shia Muslims. questions. Basedwhile on the 52.6% results identified of that test,Hezbollah some as playing that role. Although attitudes toward revisions were madethe LAF to improvewere highly the favorablerespondents’ (83%), Hezbollah security received a higher job performance rating (86.6% vs. 60.9%). Nevertheless, the majority of respondents ability to understand the questions being asked. view security as the responsibility of the Lebanese state. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll wasSizable administered diversity of by opinion 25 field on a range of issues:T698 Respondents “clusters” of demonstrated Shia Muslims living in the southern widely contrasting viewpoints on most of the questionssuburbs ofwhen Beirut disaggregated (known collectively by as “Dahiyeh”) surveyors in Dahiyeh,area. specifically the areas of Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 1.1 Do you feel that things are going in the 1.2 Do you think the country is headed Methodology right direction in your neighborhood? in the right direction? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 50.7%ABina “Right contracted Direction”... with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) 59%who “Wrong represented Direction”... a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken toJust assess over the half effectiveness (50.7%) of all of respondents the believeFebruary that “things 25, andare goingall respondents in the right were Shia Muslims. questions. Baseddirection on the results in their of neighborhood.” that test, some This represents an increase from last year’s results, when only 37.8% felt the same way. revisions were made to improve the respondents’ These results are interesting since security conditions deteriorated significantly in the ability to understandmonths the before questions the beingpoll; however, asked. when the poll was being taken, Dahiyeh had not he selection process was based on an estimate of Finally,Right direction under theexperienced supervision of a abombing single field for several weeks. As a result, the perceived improvement Wrong direction 50.7% 59% manager, the pollin thewas overall administered security by situation 25 field may have influencedT698 respondents“clusters” of Shiato adopt Muslims a livingmore in the southern positive outlook. surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) It should be noted that when categorized by area, only 35.3% of the respondents of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Chiyyah, Haret Hreik,from HaretGhobeiry, Hreik Bourj (the al-Barajneh,lowest results Bir posted) felt that things were moving in the right Hassan, Ouzaii anddirection Laylake-Solloum. in their neighborhood. The Haret Hreik That outcome Populationmay be explained sampling by was the accomplished fact that in three Haret Hreik was targeted most often by car bombings. areaWrong knowndirection as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to Rightsize direction (PPS) 32.5% 25.7% most of Hezbollah'sNevertheless, offices and these boasts results the highestmust be considered samplingin comparison technique to another was used poll to determine that 60 question: “Do you think the country is headed in the right direction?” degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary Don’t know Don’t know 16.5% Interestingly, 59% of the respondents indicated “No.” survey. sampling unit for this activity. 15% The distinction apparent between the right direction being indicated on the local 0.3% No answer No answer 0.3% POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology scale and the wrong direction being indicated on the national scale reflects a s part of its prevailing,ongoing research community activities, oriented, Hayya quasi-autonomous he feeling sample of group belonging consisted to a oflarger 600 people (300 ABina contractedbody. with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conductStill, the wrong a groundbreaking direction being public indicated on thevariety nation of scale social mirrors classes, the ages results and educational displayed later in the poll (Q1.6). 73.7% report that their economic situation is worse opinion poll of Dahiyehthan last residents. year. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalizedIn terms the of sectarian questionnaire, tension, a pilot the mood is also negative.“door-to-door” 58.8% techniqueof those polled between February 4 and poll was taken todescribed assess the the effectiveness relationship of between the their communityFebruary and 25, their and Sunni all respondents counterparts were Shia Muslims. questions. Basedas on “bad.” the results Furthermore, of that test, 62% some described their relationship with the Palestinians in much the same way. Overall, this outcome should not be surprising given the revisions were madesustained to improve Sunni-Shia the respondents’sectarian polarization of the country. ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH Name: General 3 A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

90% 1.2 Do you think the country is headed in the “right direction?” Methodology Breakdown by area and age 80% 70% s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 60% Bina contracted with a regionally based A Tmales and 300 females) who represented a 50% research Breakdown firm to conductby area a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational When broken down by area, respondents from Haret Hreik indicated the 40% most negative outlook: 82.7% stated that the country is heading in the wrong opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds.30% The survey was administered via a direction. Chiyah-Ghobeiry: 46.7% and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”20% technique between February Haret Hreik: 82.7%4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February10% 25, and all respondents were Hay Shia al-Selloum Muslims. : 30.7% 0% Bourj al-Barajneh: 76.0% questions. Based on the results of that test, some Wrong direction revisions were made to improve the respondents’ Name: General 4 ability to understand the questions being asked. 70% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of 60% manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs50% of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”)

Chiyyah, Breakdown Haret Hreik, by age Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the40% 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. When broken down by age, younger (18-29) respondents had a more Population30% sampling was accomplished in three Hassan,negative Ouzaii opinion and about Laylake-Solloum. the direction in which The the Haret country Hreik is heading. Aside from contributing social factors (especially unemployment), the youth are at area known as “security square,” which is home to stages.20% First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) the forefront, symbolically and physically, of the sectarian “confrontations” mostoccurring of Hezbollah's in Lebanon offices and Syria. and The boasts results postedthe highest about the state of sampling technique was used to determine that18-29: 60 66.3% 10% sectarian tensions substantiate that assertion. 30-39: 55.2% degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary According to figures published recently by the Lebanese Labor Ministry, 0% 40-49: 42.2% “the unemployment rate ranges between […] 22 – 23% and rises to 33% amongst the youth.”1 survey. sampling unit for this Wrong activity. direction 1 http://www.weeportal-lb.org/content/minister-labor-lebanon%E2%80%99s-unemployment-rate-exceeds-23-amidst-poor-estimates-and-limited

Name: General 5 POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 What are your plans for the next 5 years?

1.3Methodology What are your plans for the next 5 years? As part suburb of its in ongoing limbo... research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Less than half of all respondents (47.2%) indicated theresearch belief firm that to conduct they will a continue groundbreaking to live public in the variety of social classes, ages and educational sameopinion area poll duringof Dahiyeh the nextresidents. 5 years, Once an Hayya outcome Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a down from over 60% in the 2013 poll. A further and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and 22.8% also expressed plans to move. In fact, many havepoll was moved taken to to “safer” assess theareas effectiveness on the periphery of the of February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Move outside Dahiyehquestions. or Based to adjacent on the results neighborhoods of that test, suchsome as of Lebanon: 21.2% Move to another neighborhood Ein al-Roumaneh and Hadath (historically Christian Find a nicer in Beirut : 4.2% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ or bigger apartment regions to the east). It is important to note that in the same area or nearby : 22.8% duringability to the understand poll, a significant the questions number being asked.of Dahiyeh Move to the village: 3.8% residentsFinally, under had the already supervision left theof a area single due field to the he selection process was based on an estimate of situation. Accordingly, the results could actually manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living Noin answer:the southern 0.8% be more dramatic. The observation concerning suburbs of BeirutContinue (known living collectively as “Dahiyeh”) peoplesurveyors who in Dahiyeh, have departed specifically the area the areaswas made of by in same area : 47.2% theChiyyah, polling Haret teams, Hreik, who Ghobeiry, noticed Bourjthat al-Barajneh,the locations Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. they visited the previous year had been deserted. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three For those who indicated a desire to move outside ofarea Lebanon, known as the “security top three square,” preferred which destinations is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) aremost Germany, of Hezbollah's Canada offices and and the boasts USA. the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Although Dahiyeh is often stereotyped as Methodology1.4 How would you describe your personal/household an impoverished ghetto, its residents are financial situation? generally comfortable with their financial s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 Dahiyeh: hardly a slum... situation. In reality, Dahiyeh is comprised ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales andof 300 a rangefemales) of who neighborhoods represented that a vary research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of socialfrom classes, multimillion-dollar ages and educational apartments to makeshift dwellings. Haret Hreik, Dahiyeh’s opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds.“downtown” The survey was and administered former location via a of and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”Hezbollah’s technique security between square, February is home 4 and to 100 % largely middle class residents, and it is the poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. 90 % area’s economic hub. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions80 % were made to improve the respondents’ In contrast to ability70 % to understand the questions being asked. the stereotypical he selectionimage process created was based on an estimate of Finally, under the supervision of a single field and maintained for 60 % T698 “clusters”Dahiyeh, of thisShia real Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field estate project in 50 % surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of BeirutBir Hassan (known describes collectively as “Dahiyeh”) itself as: Chiyyah,40 % Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560“Offering clusters the situated comfort throughout Lebanon. and modernity of Hassan,30 % Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population samplinga hassle-free was 21st accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First,century the probability lifestyle, Mercury proportional Residence isto in size a prime (PPS) 20 % location in the center of the Bir Hassan district of most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling techniqueBeirut. Twelve was apartments, used to rangingdetermine from 240 that to 60 10 % 400 square meters in size, are built over five floors, degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) eachclusters featuring should all the be conveniences considered and the amenities primary necessary for high-end living.” survey.0 % sampling unit for this activity. Adequate: 65.3% Less than Adequate: 22.8% Poor: 6.5% Very Good: 5.3% http://www.trilliumdevelopment.com.lb/overview.php?id_parent=249 POLLINGName: DAHIYEH Economic Situation 2

A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Is your financial situation better or worse since the last year? Methodology1.5 Is your financial situation better or worse since last year? s73.7%: part of Worse its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Haret Hreik Municipality research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of socialofficials classes, flank a ages and educational Hezbollah MP opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds.and The cut survey the was administered via a As it is:12% symbolic ribbon to open the and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”second technique between February 4 and shopping poll Better:was 14.3%taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, andfestival. all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’To help convey an atmosphere of normalcy to Worse: 73.7% Dahiyeh’s residents and restart its economy (more ability to understand the questions being asked.specifically that of Haret Hreik), the Haret Hreik municipality organized whathe selection it called a “shoppingprocess was based on an estimate of Finally, under the supervision of a single field festival” during May and June 2014. Comprised manager, the poll was administered by 25 fieldof activities focusedT 698 on “clusters” youths, music of Shia and Muslims living in the southern entertainment, the general motto of the event surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of was “Meet us in Harasuburbs and shop of smartly.” Beirut To (known ensure collectively as “Dahiyeh”) success, municipality and area leaders mobilized Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh,the manyBir componentsof the of its 10,560 “civil society clusters wing.” situated throughout Lebanon. 73.7% reported that their The running joke wasPopulation that more than sampling anything else, was accomplished in three Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret theHreik shopping event became an opportunity for financial situation was worse area known as “security square,” which is homeHezbollah to to deploy stages.and showcase First, theits civilian probability and proportional to size (PPS) than the year before. That commercial strength. mostfinding of isHezbollah's consistent offices with the and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 number of respondents who (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary degree of local security, was not included in the Participating view the country as going in the shops and the survey. sampling unit numberfor this of giftsactivity. “wrong direction” (1.2). each presented. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 Name:Identity and Sectarian Issues 1

Do you consider yourselfreligiously observant? Methodology2.1 Do you consider yourself religiously observant? As part community of its ongoing in mourning research shifts activities, toward Hayya religiosity he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Comparedresearch firm with to conductlast year’s a resultsgroundbreaking where 33.5% public of variety of social classes, ages and educational the respondents declared that they were religiously opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina “observant,” 39.9% were somewhere “in the middle” backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and 27.2%its partner were finalized “not observant,” the questionnaire, this year’s a shiftpilot to the “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and vague “middle” (at 52.7%) is interesting. It is equally poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. thought provoking that the proportion of those who Observant: 30.8% questions. Based on the results of that test, some declare themselves “observant” remains almost constant.revisions were made to improve the respondents’ Not observant: 13.3% ability to understand the questions being asked. Based on the notion that being religiously “in the he selection process was based on an estimate of middle”Finally, under or being the “half-religious”supervision of a means single fieldlittle more than respectingmanager, the certain poll wassocial administered conventions, by these 25 field results T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern cansurveyors be interpreted in Dahiyeh, to specifically reflect the the growing areas senseof of Shia suburbs of Beirut (knownIn thecollectively middle: 55.8% as “Dahiyeh”) identity and cohesion at the communal level, a trend of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. visibleChiyyah, throughout Haret Hreik, the Ghobeiry, poll results. Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three Moreover,area known 75.3% as “security of the respondents square,” which declared is home that to they stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) know someone from their family or area who was killed inmost Syria of (QHezbollah's 7.5). Thus, offices it is understandable and boasts the that highest today sampling technique was used to determine that 60 thedegree Shia ofare local in a security, state of wasmourning, not included and that in solidaritythe (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary is occurring via religious occasions and sectarian survey. sampling unit for this activity. symbols.

POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 2 Which gives you the greater sense of personal pride? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology2.2 Which gives you a greater sense of personal pride? Sectarians part of its identity ongoing gaining research ground activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational Compared with last year, respondents opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a indicated that they have a greater sense Arab identity: 6.2% Political identity: 1% ofand pride its partner regarding finalized their “Shiathe questionnaire, identity” a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and (an increase from 36% to 45.8%), with a poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. corresponding decline (54% to 47%) in questions. Based on the results of that test, some those choosing “Lebanese Identity.”These resultsrevisions mirror were the made trend to observed improve inthe the respondents’ questionability to regardingunderstand religious the questions observance. being asked. he selection process was based on an estimate of “ShiaFinally, Identity” under the was supervision the least prevalent of a single field inmanager, the poorest the quarterspoll was ofadministered Dahiyeh, by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern Shia identity: 45.8% Lebanese identity: 47% Haysurveyors al-Selloum, in Dahiyeh, (where specifically 65.3% selected the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) “Lebanese Identity), while it was the of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. mostChiyyah, prevalent Haret (63.3%)Hreik, Ghobeiry, in the ideological Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir nucleusHassan, ofOuzaii Dahiyeh, and Laylake-Solloum.Haret Hreik, which The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three borearea theknown brunt as of“security the suicide square,” attacks which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) and expressed the greatest negativity regardingmost of Hezbollah's their relationship offices andwith boaststhe Sunni the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 community.degree of local A connection security, was can not thus included be in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary drawnsurvey. between sectarian identity and sampling unit for this activity. sectarian tension. POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 3 A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

2.2 Which gives you a greater sense of personal pride? 70% Methodology Breakdown by area and age 60% s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 50% ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a 40% research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational 30% opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a 20% and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Breakdown by area 10% pollWhen was categorizedtaken to assess by area, the 63.3% effectiveness of Haret Hreik respondentsof the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. acknowledged Shia as their primary identity. In Hay al-Selloum, the most 0% questions.economically Based deprived on the area results polled, of 65.3% that of test, the respondentssome chose Shia identity Lebanese Arab Political citizenship revisions“Lebanese were citizenship.” made to This improve indicates thethat respondents’we cannot associate the higher Shia identity with a specific level of income or socioeconomic background. Chiyah-Ghobeiry Haret Hreik Hay al-Selloum Bourj al-Barajneh ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he70% selection process was based on an estimate of 59.8% manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T69860% “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern 52.5% 50.8% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs50% of Beirut (known collectively48.3% as “Dahiyeh”) 44.8% 41.6% Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the40% 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Breakdown by age 36.3% 35% “Shia identity” appears to be slightly more important to younger Population sampling was accomplished in three Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik 30% generations, with 50.8% of the 18-29 group choosing this as their top choice areaas knowncompared as with “security a 40.5% square,”average of whichthe other is agehome groups. to Although the stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS)18-29 20% difference is not dramatic, increased feelings of frustration and sectarian most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 30-3960 tension were a salient trend throughout the youth results. 10% 40-49 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary50=> 0% survey. sampling unitShia for identity this activity. Lebanese citizenship Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 4

POLLING DAHIYEH How do you view the relationship between your community and the Sunni sect? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 2.3 How do you view the relationship between your Methodology community and the Sunni community As partdim ofoutlook... its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Mostresearch respondents firm to conduct characterized a groundbreaking their relationship public with variety of social classes, ages and educational the Sunni sect as bad. When categorized by area, Bourjopinion al-Barajneh poll of Dahiyeh and Haret residents. Hreik appearOnce Hayya to hold Bina the backgrounds. The survey was administered via a Neither/nor: 15.3% Good: 25.8% mostand its negative partner viewfinalized of their the communities’questionnaire, relationships a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and withpoll wasthe Sunnistaken to(both assess have the an effectiveness overall negative of the opinion (“very bad” + “bad”) of 77.3%. February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some Chiyah-Ghobeiryrevisions were made is the to onlyimprove area the that respondents’ reported a favorableability to understand view of their the relationship questions beingwith the asked. Sunnis (a positive cumulative response of 61.3%). This difference he selection process was based on an estimate of mayFinally, be under attributed the supervision to geographic of a singleintegration field with Sunnimanager, areas the of pollBeirut was and administered perhaps higher by 25 economic field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern status. Of those who qualified their household Bad: 58.8% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) financial situation as “very good,” 72% came of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. fromChiyyah, Chiyah. Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology2.4 How do you view the relationship between your

community and Palestinians? Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 5 s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based TmalesHow doand you 300 view females)the relationship who between represented your community a and the Palestinians? research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational Overall, the opinion is negative, which mirrors the opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina responses related to the Sunni sect in general. The backgrounds. The survey was administered via a negativeand its partner Shia attitude finalized towards the questionnaire, the Palestinians a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and (62%) is fed by both historical and recent factors. poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. The enmity being shown to the Sunni community appliesquestions. to theBased Palestinians on the results as well, of that as they test, are some predominantlyrevisions were made Sunni andto improve have been the respondents’ accused of contributing to the recent bombings. ability to understand the questions being asked. Neutral: 24.5% Good: 13.5% he selection process was based on an estimate of ForFinally, instance, under Bourjthe supervision al-Barajneh of and a single Haret field Hreik aremanager, immediate the poll neighbors was administered of the Bourj by al-Barajneh 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern Palestiniansurveyors in refugee Dahiyeh, camp, specifically against the which areas they of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) fought during the “The War of the Camps” (1985- Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. 1989) and retain memories of those years. Haret Bad: 62% HreikHassan, also Ouzaii experienced and Laylake-Solloum. “war trauma” The when Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three unconfirmedarea known as information “security square,” indicated which that is athome least to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) one of the car bombs detonated several months beforemost of polling Hezbollah's began offices was preparedand boasts in thethe highestBourj al- sampling technique was used to determine that 60 Barajnehdegree of camp. local security, Reportedly, was thenot vehicleincluded departed in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary the camp and headed directly to its neighbor, survey. sampling unit for this activity. Haret Hreik. Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 7 POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project Do you think the memorandum of understanding Maybetween 2013 Hezbollah and FPM is important ? Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 6 2.5 How do you view the relationship 2.6 Do you think the MoU between Hezbollah MethodologyHow do you view the relationship between your community and the Christian between your communitysect? and Christians? and the Free Patriotic Movement is important? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300

ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) whoNo representedanswer: 0.2% a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” techniqueNo: 7.2% between February 4 and Neutral: 20.8% poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Bad: 3.2% questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern Good: 76% Yes: 92.7% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. Name: Identity and Sectarian Issues 8

Is there a specific leader you trust to provide a better future POLLING DAHIYEH for your family? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

3.1 Is there a specific leader you trust to Methodology provide a better future for your family? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a researchA boost firm tofor conduct “The Sayyed” a groundbreaking and “The publicUstaz” variety of social classes, ages and educational opinionJust over poll half of (52.8%) Dahiyeh of residents.all respondents Once choseHayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a Hassan Nasrallah as the leader they trust and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and the most to provide a better future for their pollfamilies. was Thistaken is a to significant assess the increase effectiveness from lastof the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions.year’s results Based when on only the 36.8%results choseof that Nasrallah. test, some revisionsSimilarly, wereNabih made Berri was to improve chosen theby 18.2%respondents’ of the respondents, up from 11.6% last year. In ability to understand the questions being asked. No one: 23.5% Nabih Berri: 18.2% No answer: 3.3% the previous poll, most (50.5%) respondents he selection process was based on an estimate of Finally,chose “Nounder one.” the supervision of a single field manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern When categorized by area, Haret Hreik surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) showed the strongest support for Hassan Other: 2.2% Chiyyah,Nasrallah Haret(67.3%) Hreik, while Ghobeiry, other areas Bourj ranged al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan,between Ouzaii 43% and and 53%. Laylake-Solloum. Support for Berri The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three was highest in Bourj al-Barajneh (24%) Hassan Nasrallah: 52.8% area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) and Hay al-Selloum (28.7%). The increase mostin Berri’s of Hezbollah's popularity isoffices interesting and boastssince as the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degreeNasrallah’s of local attractiveness security, was seems not toincluded have been in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary unaffected by that preference, it likely reflects survey. sampling unit for this activity. the growing sense of “sectarian solidarity.” Name: Politics 2

What do you think the effect of the new government will be on the country? Name: Politics 1

In your opinion, how important do you think it is to hold parliamentary POLLING DAHIYEHelections this year? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology3.2 In your opinion, how important do you 3.3 What effect do you think the new think it is to hold parliamentary elections government will have on the country? thiss part year? of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administeredDon't know: 7.8% via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Not important: 20.7% It will bring more security It will cause less security poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the Februaryand 25, stability: and 29.7% all respondents wereand stability Shia : Muslims.6.5% questions. Based on the results ofNo opinion:that 4.8% test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Important: 74.5% No effect: 56% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three Amongarea known the 74.5% as “security who answered square,” “Important,”which is home 45.2% to of Shia stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) respondents also categorized this as “very important.” most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 Thesedegree results of local reiterate security, the was growing not included Shia feeling in the of (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary empowermentsurvey. and confidence, as they have the sense sampling unit for this activity. that they have something to gain by holding elections.

POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 3.4 On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is “very important” and Methodology 1 is “not important at all,” rate the following in terms of importances part of its ongoing for the research coming activities, 10 years: Hayya he sample groupName: consisted Politics 8 of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some Rate the following in terms of their importance for the coming 10 years: revisions were made to improve the respondents’ 120% ability to understand the questions being asked. 98.7% 96.8% 100% 93.9% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was90.8% based 89.4%on an estimate of 81.9% Thismanager, graph theportrays poll was the administeredcombined responses by 25 field 80% T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern for “important” and “very important.” suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of 60% Although the results do not vary greatly, is it Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. interesting that respondents opted to 40% placeHassan, sectarianism Ouzaii and aheadLaylake-Solloum. of infrastructure, The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three whicharea known represents as “security a greater square,” focus thanwhich in is home to20% stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) previous years. This outcome likely results frommost theof Hezbollah's current increase offices in and sectarian boasts the highest 0% sampling technique was used to determine that 60 Lebanon's Security Lebanon's Sectarianism Lebanon's Lebanon economy situation institutions decreases infrastructure becomes a conflictdegree ofand local a sense security, that was the notproblems included in in the improves(of nimproves = 600) clustersbetter serve should be consideredimproves themore primary Lebanon’s infrastructure are heavily linked to the people democratic survey. sampling unit for this activity. country sectarianism. Name: Politics 4

Do you think that Lebanese leaders should do more to counter foreign interest in Lebanese affairs? POLLING DAHIYEHName: Politics 3 A HayyaTo Binawhat extent Project do you think that foreign interest impacts Lebanon’s affairs? May 2013 4.1 To what extent do you think that foreign 4.2 Do you think that Lebanese leaders Methodology interests impact Lebanon’s affairs? should do more to counter foreign s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya interestshe sample groupin Lebanese consisted ofaffairs? 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. OnceTo a Hayya small extent: Bina 3.3% backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and To a certain extent: 29% Not at all: 1.2% No: 11% Don't Know: 10.3% poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test,No some opinion: 1.7% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. To a large extent: 64.8% Yes: 78.7% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) The cumulative result of “to a large extent” + “to a certain extent”most of (93.8%)Hezbollah's confirms offices whatand Lebaneseboasts the historianhighest and sampling technique was used to determine that 60 economistdegree of localG. Corm security, has identifiedwas not included as the “chancellors’ in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary culture” of the Lebanese people. Historically, the Lebanese survey. sampling unit for this activity. have believed that foreign factors prevail over their decisions. Name: Politics 5 POLLING DAHIYEH A HayyaWhich Bina of the Project following countries has the greatest influence on Lebanese May 2013 affairs? 4.3 Which of the following countries exerts the Methodology greatest influence on Lebanese affairs? Name: Politics 6 s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales Breakdown and 300 by females) area who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public varietyThe USof wassocial the classes,most popular ages choice and for educational all areas (ranging from 50.7% to 64.7%) apart from Haret Hreik, which selected Israel opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. OnceSyria: Hayya 7.8% Bina backgrounds.at 52.7% and Thepositioned survey the was US in administered second place at via 24%. a The Haret Hreik results show the extent to which the memory of SA: 13% and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”the 2006 war has technique been kept betweenalive in the area February that suffered 4 and the Iran: 6.7% most due to its role as Hezbollah’s nerve center. By contrast, poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Israel: 20.5% Russia: 0.5% 4.1% of Hay al-Selloum’s respondents selected Israel. questions. Based on the results of that test, someDon't Know: 3% 70% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. 60% US: 48.5% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of 50% manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern 40% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”)

Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the30% 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. 48.5%Hassan, of Ouzaiirespondents and Laylake-Solloum. believe that the The US Haretexerts Hreikthe greatest Population sampling was accomplished in three influence on Lebanese affairs, followed by Israel and Saudi 20% area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Arabia. Here, “influence” is clearly understood in a negative 10% light.most Accordingof Hezbollah's to theoffices previous and boasts year’s theresults, highest 7.8% of sampling technique was used to determine that 60 respondents viewed better relations with the US as favorable. degree of local security, was not included in the (of n 0%= 600) clusters should be considered the primary In contrast, 78.8% of respondents viewed better relations with US Israel SA Syria Iran Don't Russia survey. sampling unit for this activity. know Iran as beneficial. Chiyah-Ghobeiry Haret Hreik Hay al-Selloum Bourj al-Barajneh Name: Politics 7

Do you think that the Shia community will benefit from the Iranian -US dialogue?

POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology4.4 Do you think the Shia community will benefit from Iranian-US dialogue?

s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sampleThe intimacy group that consisted exists of 600 people (300 between Iran and Lebanon’s Bina contracted with a regionally based A TmalesShia and community 300 females) influences who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety ofevery social facet classes, of life. It rangesages and educational from the quasi-official picture opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once HayyaNo answer: Bina 1.8% No: 37.3% backgrounds.of Sayyed The Hassan survey Nasrallah was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot bending to kiss the shoulder “door-to-door”of Iran’s leader technique Sayyed Alibetween February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the FebruaryKhamenei 25, and (an all example respondents of were Shia Muslims. filial respect) to the small signs questions. Based on the results of that test, some scattered throughout the revisions were made toYes: improve 60.8% the respondents’ Shia regions that read “The Iranian people at the service ability to understand the questions being asked. of the Lebanese people” Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection(vaguely reminiscentprocess was of the based on an estimate of renowned USAID slogan, manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters”“From the American of Shia MuslimsPeople”). living in the southern suburbs Theseof Beirut pictures (known exemplify collectively the as “Dahiyeh”) surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of ways in which Iran is present Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560in Lebanon, clusters which situated sometimes throughout Lebanon. A majority (60.8%) of respondents believe that the verges on megalomania, ShiaHassan, community Ouzaii and will Laylake-Solloum.benefit from a dialogue The Haret between Hreik Populationas is evidentsampling in Maroun was accomplished al- in three Iranarea and known the asUS, “security although square,” a sizeable which (37.3%) is home minority to stages. First,Ras in theSouth probability Lebanon. This proportional to size (PPS) answered in the negative. Regardless of perspective, village, which faces the Israeli however,most of Hezbollah's this indicates offices that and most boasts people the see highest their future samplingborder, technique contains wasa huge used park to determine that 60 called “The Iran Park,” built connecteddegree of local to that security, of Iran was - and not that included such an in theassociation (of n = 600)to commemorate clusters should the battles be considered the primary is beneficial, exerts a positive influence and importantly, survey. samplingthat unit occurred for this in activity.the village represents a joint venture. during the 2006 war. Name: Taif 1

POLLINGDo you DAHIYEH believe that we have to think of another agreement than Taif or do you believe that the Taif agreement is still relevant? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 5.1 Do you believe that we must think of an agreement other than Methodology Taif, or do you believe that the Taif Agreement is still relevant? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 Taif, Adieu... ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational In the last few years, the first official to explicitly mention opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Don'tOnce know: Hayya 2.3% Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a Lebanon’s need for a “new societal contract” (a polite and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot way“door-to-door” of suggesting technique that the Taif between Agreement February needed 4 and to poll was taken to assessTaif is stillthe effectiveness of the relevant: 11.5% beFebruary amended) 25, wasand Maronite all respondents Patriarch were Bechara Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some al-Raii, who made the observation at a social function in November 2011: “In these difficult times when revisions were made to improve the respondents’ Lebanon is experiencing a political, economic and ability to understand the questions being asked. social crisis, we look for real statesmen willing to take Finally, under the supervision of a single field the daringhe selection step of processcreating was a new based societal on an contract estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field basedT698 on “clusters” the national of Shia pact” Muslims (Al-Mustaqbal living in the. November southern 22, 2011). surveyors in Dahiyeh,Time specifically to think of an the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) agreement other Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, than Ghobeiry, Taif: 86.2% Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir At ofthe the time, 10,560 not clustersmany people situated reacted throughout strongly Lebanon. to the Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik patriarch’sPopulation words, sampling taking was his accomplishedremark as a pious in three wish. area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) On June 1, 2012, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest Nasrallahsampling stated technique that his was organization used to determine would not that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the oppose(of n = a 600) “national clusters convention” should be considered in which the the Lebanese primary could discuss a new “societal contract.” To this day, survey. sampling unit for this activity. reference is made frequently to that speech as having Yes: 60.8 POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology been the basis of subsequent discussions concerning the s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya power-sharinghe sample formula group advanced consisted by theof 600 Taif people Agreement. (300 It should be clarified that if such an overhaul were ABina contracted with a regionally based conductedTmales according and 300 to females)Nasrallah’s who expectations, represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public Lebanon’svariety power-sharing of social classes, formula ages would and not educational be divided equally between Christians and Muslims. Instead, the opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a reallocation would provide a larger slice of the country’s and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot power-sharing“door-to-door” “pie” to techniquethe Shia community between Februaryat the expense 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the of Lebanon’sFebruary Sunni 25, and and Christian all respondents communities. were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some The fact that most (86.2%) respondents believe the time revisions were made to improve the respondents’ has come to think of an agreement other than Taif suggests ability to understand the questions being asked. that the Shia community is actually in polite agreement with Finally, under the supervision of a single field Nasrallah. he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern Considerationsuburbs must of Beirut be given (known to thecollectively “culture asof “Dahiyeh”)victory” with surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of which Hezbollah has inundated Lebanon’s Shia community Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir since 2000,of the and 10,560 reboosted clusters following situated eventsthroughout such Lebanon.as the Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik 2006 war,Population the 2008 samplingmilitary action was accomplished followed by the in Dohathree agreement, the ousting of Saad Hariri from office in 2011 area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) and even Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, all of which most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest strenghtenedsampling the technique Shia self-image. was used This toillustrates determine the thatabiding 60 degree of local security, was not included in the perception(of n that = 600) Taif clusters has become should “toobe considered small” to do the the primary job. When categorized by area, this opinion remains constant survey. sampling unit for this activity. throughout the five neighborhoods polled. Name: Taif 2

If the answer is "It is time to think of another agreement than POLLING DAHIYEH Taif", why? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

5.2 If you believe the time has come “to think 5.3 If you answered that theName: “Taif Taif 3 Methodology of an agreement other than Taif,” then why? Agreement is still relevant,” then why? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample groupIf consistedthe answer is “Taif of agreement600 people is still relevant”, (300 why? ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the It was never fully February 25, and all respondentsNothing better were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the resultsimplemented: of that test, some is possible: 22.1% 26.1% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of Balance of power Initially was not a Preserves stability: Preserves manager, the pollhas changed:was administeredgood agreement: by 25 field T698 “clusters” of 34.8% Shia Muslimsconfessional living in balance: the southern 38.9% 39.1% 39.1% surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 Name: Security 1

Do you feel secure in your area? Methodology6.1 Do you feel secure in your area? Mores part secureof its ongoing until proved research otherwise... activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public Comparedvariety of with social last classes, year (69% ages yes, and 27.5% educational no), the results were similar. These findings are perhaps surprising opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a considering the dramatic decline in the security situation and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot in Dahiyeh“door-to-door” since the technique preceding between year. While February perhaps 4 and Dahiyeh residents were feeling more secure compared poll was taken to assess No:the 21.8% effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. to previous months (due to factors such as the absence questions. Based on the results of that test, some of Dahiyeh bombings in the New Year, as well as the revisions were made to improve the respondents’No answer: 7.5% mid-May fall of Yabroud to Hezbollah and Syrian regime ability to understand the questions being asked. forces which was touted as a military victory that would halt the spate of car bombings in Lebanon), the findings Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of remain puzzling, especially as they are not consistent 698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field withT other results indicating a desire to move outside the surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of area,suburbs and the of Beirut need (knownfor improved collectively security as as “Dahiyeh”) a national priority. Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum.Yes: 70.7% The Haret Hreik An Populationexplanation sampling may lie inwas Hezbollah’s accomplished intense in three area known as “security square,” which is home to propagandastages. First, campaign the probability justifying proportional its involvement to size in (PPS) Syria. For example, the Yabroud face-off was advertised as a sampling technique was used to determine that 60 most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest “defensive” operation aimed at protecting Shia regions degree of local security, was not included in the - and(of Lebanonn = 600) clusters in general should - from be takfiris considered. At home, the primary survey. extremelysampling visible unit securityfor this activity. measures were implemented jointly by Hezbollah and Lebanese state institutions, POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology which caused a great deal of annoyance, but may s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 have given the illusion that Dahiyeh had become a ABina contracted with a regionally based “secured”Tmales area. and However,300 females) the whocumulative represented impact a of a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public year’svariety worth of ofsocial bombings classes, and ages violence and educational is evident when categorized by area: only 48.7% of the respondents in opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina Haretbackgrounds. Hreik (the main The bombingsurvey was target) administered feel secure via awhile and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot a sizable“door-to-door” number (40.7%) technique feel insecure.between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. In parallel, Hezbollah’s policy has been to spur a return questions. Based on the results of that test, some to normalcy as soon as possible. In most cases, work was revisions were made to improve the respondents’ carried out to remove nearly all traces of the attacks— ability to understand the questions being asked. including removing wreckage and rubble, repainting affectedhe selectionbuildings andprocess replacing was based broken on windows—an estimate of Finally, under the supervision of a single field within 24 – 48 hours of those events. These actions were manager, the poll was administered by 25 field intendedT698 to“clusters” give the of impression Shia Muslims that living nothing in the significant southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of hadsuburbs occurred. of Beirut Hezbollah (known even collectively copied the as “Dahiyeh”)“I love life” advertising slogan promoted at the time by adversaries of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of March 14 by organizing “joyful” social functions (e.g., Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik weddingsPopulation or cross-sectarian sampling was gatherings)accomplished at the in three site of area known as “security square,” which is home to eachstages. explosion First, theto highlight probability the proportional Lebanese nature to size of (PPS) the danger to Shia areas. In addition, Hezbollah instituted most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest far-reachingsampling techniquesecurity measures was used individually, to determine then that jointly 60 Revision: Above: A newly married couple visits the site of a car bomb explosion. (with the Lebanese Armed Forces and other Lebanese degreeBelow: of Parking local obstacles security, in Dahiyeh was beingnot included painted pink. in The the campaign is (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary intended to mitigate the frustration caused by the need to emplace those security institutions) and in the most conspicuous survey.barricades, which dramatically reduced the number of available parking sampling unit for this activity. spaces. La vie en rose! manner possible. Name: Security 2 POLLING DAHIYEH Who is providing security in your area? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology6.2 Who is providing security in your area?

As part “team of itseffort...” ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Theresearch responses firm to to conduct this question a groundbreaking are especially public variety of social classes, ages and educational interesting. While Amal’s visibility was negligible, opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina Lebanese State Dahiyeh residents recognize Hezbollah and state backgrounds.Security Forces: The 44.9% survey was administered via a securityand its partner forces asfinalized their protectors. the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between Family/tribe:February 0.5% 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. The question permitted more than one answer, and Amal Movement: 1.7% questions. Based on the results of that test, some 881 responses were recorded from 600 respondents. Ofrevisions the 463 were (52.6%) made who to choseimprove Hezbollah the respondents’ and 396 No one: 0.3% (44.9%) who chose Lebanese state security, a ability to understand the questions being asked. Hezbollah: 52.6% significant proportion (276 or 31.3%) chose both. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of Thismanager, illustrates the that poll thewas relationship administered between by 25 field them is T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern moresurveyors of a in “partnership” Dahiyeh, specifically than a “division the areas of labor.”of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. OfChiyyah, note, sinceHaret Hezbollah Hreik, Ghobeiry, “invited” Bourj the al-Barajneh, LAF and other Bir stateHassan, security Ouzaii institutions and Laylake-Solloum. to help secure The Dahiyeh—a Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three decisionarea known intended as “security to reduce square,” the frequencywhich is home of to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) arguments between residents and Hezbollah affiliatesmost of Hezbollah's and to boost offices local and economic boasts the prosperity—a highest officiallysampling to a statetechnique institution was (theused Hezbollah-controlledto determine that 60 third,degree ambiguous of local security, participant was hasnot appearedincluded in in the the federation(of n = of 600) Beirut’s clusters southern should suburbs), be considered is comprised the primary of form of a police force representing the Federation of Hezbollah militiamen dressed in official attire and given a survey. sampling unit for this activity. Dahiyeh’s Municipalities. That organization, related certified capacity. Name: Security 3

Are you satisfied with the performance of Hezbollah? POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Name: Security 4

Methodology6.3 Are you satisfied with the performance 6.4 Are you satisfiedAre you satisfiedwith with the the performanceperformance of the Lebanese State Security of the institution you identified above of the institution you selectedForces? above s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 (Hezbollah)? Name: Security 5 (i.e., Lebanese State Security Forces)? ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational No answer: No: 5.6% opinion 7.8% poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and 100% poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the 90% February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that80% test, some No: 30.3% 70% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ No answer: 8.8% 60% ability to understand the questions being50% asked. he selection process was based on an estimate of Finally, under the supervision of a single40% field Yes: 86.6% 30% Yes: 60.9% manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern 20% suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the10% areas of 0% Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir Yes of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Chiyah-Ghobeiry: Haret Hreik: Hay al-Selloum: Bourj al-Barajneh: Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret89.1% Hreik 31.6% Population60% 62.2% sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Significant variation is apparent when viewed by most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts area,the highestwith Haret Hreik (31.6%) indicatingsampling the technique least was used to determine that 60 support for the state security services(of n and= 600) Chiyah- clusters should be considered the primary degree of local security, was not includedGhobeiry in the the most (89.1%). survey. sampling unit for this activity.

Name: Security 6

POLLING DAHIYEH Whose responsibility do you think it should be to provide security? A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology6.5 Whose responsibility do you think it should be to provide security? No answer: 3.3% Political parties: 13.8% s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 Most (82.8%) respondents believe that the LAF/Lebanese AStateBina is responsible contracted for with providing a regionally security. based The responses Tmales and 300 females) who represented a indicateresearch clearlyfirm to conductthat widespread a groundbreaking support exists public for variety of social classes, ages and educational Lebanese state institutions; however, such support is opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina concurrent with the belief that Hezbollah should be backgrounds. The survey was administered via a givenand its leeway partner to finalized address the security questionnaire, and retain a itspilot status “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and as an alternative armed force. Since fall 2013, security poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. conditions in Dahiyeh (as in other Shia regions of questions. Based on the results of that test, some Lebanese government/LAF:Name: Security 782.8% Lebanon) typically reflect visible coordination between staterevisions security were institutions made to improve and their the non-state respondents’ counterparts (representedability to understand by Hezbollah). the questions This successful being asked. coordination largely obscures the inherent contradiction between the he selection process was based on an estimate of twoFinally, types under of organizations. the supervision The of prevailinga single field perception ismanager, that Hezbollah the poll is wasnot actingadministered on behalf by 25of thefield Shia 100%T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern 90% communitysurveyors in Dahiyeh,but in the specifically best interests the of areas Lebanon of and the suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Lebanese people, with 41.2%, (Q 6.8), of respondents 80% of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. identifyingChiyyah, Haret “defending Hreik, Ghobeiry, Lebanon” Bourj as the al-Barajneh, main purpose Bir of 70% 60% Hezbollah’sHassan, Ouzaii arms. and By Laylake-Solloum. reinforcing the operational The Haret Hreik value Population sampling was accomplished in three 50% of this state/non-state venture, Hezbollah is advancing area known as “security square,” which is home to 40%stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Chiyah-Ghobeiry that impression. 30% most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine Haret Hreik that 60 20% degree of local security, was not included in the 10%(of n = 600) clusters should be considered Hay al-Selloumthe primary When categorized by area, respondents from Haret Hreik overwhelmingly 0% Bourj al-Barajneh survey. samplingLebanese unit forPolitical this partiesactivity.No answer indicated the greatest support for political parties that provide security. government/LAF POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Security 8 A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

How do you view the performance of LAF? 6.6Methodology Using a scale from 1 to 5, where 5 is “excellent” and 1 is “very bad,” how woulds part of youits ongoing characterize research activities,the performance Hayya of the heLAF? sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of socialBad: 4.3% classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some Medium: 12.7% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Good: 83.0% Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Breakdown Ouzaii and by Laylake-Solloum.area The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three areaWhen known categorized as “security by area, square,” Haret Hreik which again is becomes home to an anomaly. stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Although positive opinions regarding the LAF remain high (a cumulative mostfigure of Hezbollah's of 56% answered offices positively), and boasts they are the not highestas high as in the other sampling technique was used to determine that 60 three areas. In this instance, Haret Hreik posted the greatest cumulative (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary degreeproportion of local (10.7%) security, of negative was answersnot included with one-third in the (33.3%) of the survey.respondents having rated LAF performance “medium,” far higher than sampling unit for this activity. any other neighborhood. Name: Security 9

Do you think it is permissible for any groups or parties to maintain arms outside the government? POLLING DAHIYEH

A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 6.7 Do you think it is permissible for any Methodology groups or parties to maintain arms outsides part of its the ongoing government? research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes,Yes: 30.5% ages and educational An alarming shift from the previous year No: 36.5% opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” techniqueName: between Security 10 February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. Compared with 2013, significant variations are apparent in No answer: 33% questions. Based on the results of that test, some the responses to this question. The number of respondents whorevisions consider were itmade permissible to improve for groups the respondents’ to maintain arms hasability went to understandup from 16% the to questions30.5%, while being the asked.number who responded that maintaining such arms should not be he selection process was based on an estimate of permissibleFinally, under dropped the supervision from 73% of to a 36.5%.single fieldA sharp rise (from 60% 11%manager, to 30.5%) the waspoll alsowas administerednoted in the number by 25 field of respondents T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern 50% whosurveyors gave in no Dahiyeh, answer. specifically This should thenot areasbe viewed of as an suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) indication of greater support for Hezbollah as most Shia 40% of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. doChiyyah, not perceive Haret Hreik, Hezbollah’s Ghobeiry, weapons Bourj al-Barajneh, as non-state Bir arms (anHassan, understanding Ouzaii and madeLaylake-Solloum. clear in last The year’s Haret results). Hreik 30%Population sampling was accomplished in three Additionally,area known asHaret “security Hreik, square,”which voiced which the is home most tosupport stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) for Hezbollah’s security role in other sections, exhibited 20% Chiyah-Ghobeiry negligiblemost of Hezbollah's support for offices non-state and boastsarms. Thus, the highest the shift sampling technique was used to determine Haret that Hreik 60 10% candegree most of likely, local andsecurity, most was alarmingly, not included be attributed in the to a (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the Hay al-Selloumprimary generalized state of fear and insecurity where private arms 0% Bourj al-Barajneh survey. sampling unit for this activity. are becoming more appealing. Yes No No answer Name: Security 11

POLLING DAHIYEH In your opinion, what is the main function of the arms of Hezbollah?

A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Methodology6.8 In your opinion, what is the main function Serving internal of Hezbollah’s arms? (one answer only) political aims: 3.8% s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 AConfusedBina contracted customers with a orregionally satisfied based customers? Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Defending Theresearch responses firm to are conduct at once a remarkablygroundbreaking diverse public and vary variety of socialLebanon classes, ages and educational in Syria: 11.5% greatlyopinion betweenpoll of Dahiyeh the areas residents. in Dahiyeh. Once Apparently, Hayya Bina a backgrounds. The survey was administered via a number of factors contribute to respondents’ perception and its partner finalized the questionnaire,Name: Security a pilot 12 of Hezbollah’s arms. Thus, it is difficult to understand if this “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Defending Lebanon indicatespoll was taken a communications to assess the effectiveness failure or success. of the Protecting Shia and its borders: 41.2% February 25,community: and all 11.8% respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’ 70% ability to understand the questions being asked. Fighting Israel/liberating Palestine: 31.7% 60% Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of

50% T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern manager, the poll was administered by 25 field surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) 40% Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan,30% Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area20% known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Chiyah-Ghobeiry most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling Harettechnique Hreik was used to determine that 60 10% degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) Hay clustersal-Selloum should be considered the primary 0% Bourj al-Barajneh survey. Fighting Israel Defending Lebanon Defending Lebanon Serving internal Protectingsampling the Shia unit for this activity. liberating Palestine and its borders in Syria political aims community

Name: Security 14

POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Security 14 A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

90% Methodology6.9 Do you believe that one day the “Resistance” 80% will be integrated into the LAF? 70% s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group90% consisted of 600 people (300 60% AShiaBina contracteddilemma... with a regionally based Tmales and 30080% females) who represented a 50% research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social70% classes, ages and educational The results of this question 40% 60% identifyopinion twopoll nearlyof Dahiyeh equal residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds.30% The survey was administered via a trends within the Shia 50% and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”20% technique between February 4 and community. First, the 100 % 40% “hardline”poll was taken Hezbollah to assess the effectiveness of the February 10%25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. 90 % 30% supportersquestions. Based(strongly on visible the results of that test, some 0% 20% Yes No No answer inrevisions Haret Hreik) were whomade view to improve 80 % the respondents’ Respondents Chiyah-Ghobeiry from Haret HaretHreik Hreik gave the most decisive the “Resistance” as a responses: Hay10% al-Selloum 83.3% of those Bourj polled al-Barajneh do not believe that ability to understand the questions70 % being asked. Hezbollah’s0% military apparatus will ultimately be incor- unique and indespensible porated into the YesLAF. No No answer Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of entity. Second, those 60 % Chiyah-Ghobeiry Haret Hreik Hay al-Selloum Bourj al-Barajneh whomanager, see the the merging poll was of administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern the two “institutions” as 50 % surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) desirable, without posing aChiyyah, conflict Haret of interest. Hreik, Ghobeiry,Of 40 % Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. note,Hassan, the Ouzaii language and Laylake-Solloum.used 30 % The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three in the phrasing of the area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) Arabic question utilized the 20 % vocabularymost of Hezbollah's associated offices with and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 10 % thedegree post-civil of local war security, debate was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary about integrating former survey. 0 % sampling unit for this activity. militamen into the LAF. No: 42.3% Yes: 35.3% No answer: 22.3% POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Syria (1) 1 A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 Do you think that your community supports Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria?

7.1 Do you think your community supports Methodology Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally basedNo opinion: 2.8% DoesT notmales support and it:1.9% 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Supports it: 95.3% Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Name: Syria (1) 2 On behalf of whose interest is Hezbollah fighting in Syria? Methodology7.2 On whose behalf is Hezbollah fighting in Syria? As part job ofwell its soldongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a Justresearch under firm two-thirds to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational (66.3%) of those polled opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina Hezbollah: 8.5% believe that Hezbollah backgrounds. The survey was administered via a isand fighting its partner on behalf finalized of the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door”Iran: 3% technique between February 4 and The growing merger between Leba- Lebanon in Syria. Slightly poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February Syrian25, and regime: all 3% respondentsnon’s defense were and Shiathe “Resistance” Muslims. fewer than 1 in 5 (19.2%) Shia community: 19.2% questions. Based on the results of that test, some began as early as 2000 but took a respondents believe those different form after 2005. In a speech actionsrevisions benefit were made the Shia to improve the respondents’ Hassan Nasrallah gave on June 8, community. 2005 (the year Rafik Hariri was assassi- ability to understand the questions being asked. nated and the Syrians withdrew from Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process Lebanon),was based he espousedon an estimate the slogan of As evident in previous “Lebanon 10,452 km2.” That motto questions,manager, therethe poll exists was a administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia wasMuslims launched living during in the the 1980ssouthern by Christian leader and assassinated perceptionsurveyors in thatDahiyeh, Hezbollah specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (knownpresident-elect collectively Bashir as “Dahiyeh”) Gemayyel. Lebanon: 66.3% is defending the state of the 10,560 clusters situatedPropaganda throughout items that Lebanon. paralleled ofChiyyah, Lebanon, Haret especially Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir the beginning of the Lebanese na- itsHassan, minorities. Ouzaii Since and Sunni Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling wastional accomplished anthem (“Koullouna in three lil-Watan” or “All for the Nation”) with “All Resis- extremismarea known in asSyria “security is square,” which is home to stages. First, the probabilitytance” proportional have become to pivotal size (PPS)ele- considered a direct threat ments in Hezbollah’s partisan propa- tomost Lebanon of Hezbollah's as a whole, offices and boasts the highest sampling technique wasganda, used asto dictated determine by needs. that Stated 60 Hezbollah is defending (of n = 600) clusters shouldotherwise, be considered this pillar of “Shia the ideology”primary degree of local security, was not included in the being promoted by Hezbollah is thesurvey. country through its sampling unit for this activity.intended to sow confusion between engagement there. Lebanon and the “Resistance.” Name: Syria (1) 3

Has Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria made you feel more or less secure? POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 7.3 Has Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria Methodology made you feel more or less secure? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consistedNo answer: of 1.8% 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and Less secure: 15% poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’ ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern More secure: 83.2% Whensurveyors categorized in Dahiyeh, by specifically area, 83.2% the of areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) respondents from all areas indicated that they felt of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. “moreChiyyah, secure” Haret dueHreik, to Ghobeiry, Hezbollah’s Bourj involvement al-Barajneh, Bir inHassan, Syria. WhenOuzaii broken and Laylake-Solloum. down by area, Thethe Harethighest Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three proportionarea known of as respondents “security square,” who answered which is home“less to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) secure” were from Bourj al-Barajneh (21.3%) and Haretmost of Hreik Hezbollah's (17.3%). officesThat outcome and boasts may the be highestdue to sampling technique was used to determine that 60 theirdegree proximity of local to security, the Bourj was al-Barajneh not included Palestinian in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary refugeesurvey. camp, which is a potential hotbed of sampling unit for this activity. Sunni retaliation. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013

Name: Syria (1) 4

7.4Methodology Who do you think should make decisions Who do you think should decide regarding Hezbollah’s abouts part of Hezbollah’s its ongoing research involvement activities, Hayyain Syria? he sample group consistedinvolvement of in600 Syria? people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a

Althoughand its partner 66.3% finalized (Q 7.2) respondedthe questionnaire, that they a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and believe Hezbollah is fighting in Syria in the interest poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. of Lebanon, 64% believe that Hezbollah should questions. Based on the results of that test, some be in charge of its own involvement. Of note, Lebanese Shia Iran: 3.5% Lebanese state: 23.5% revisions were made to improve the respondents’ community: this becomes yet another example of Hezbollah 8.5% tryingability toto representunderstand itself the as questions “Lebanon.” being It would asked. seem that very few respondents believe that Iran he selection process was based on an estimate of shouldFinally, beunder the the decisionmaker supervision of behind a single Hezbollah’s field No answer: 0.5% involvement.manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) When categorized by area, it is interesting to of the 10,560Hezbaollah clusters leadership: situated 64% throughout Lebanon. noteChiyyah, that Haret55.3% Hreik, of the Ghobeiry, respondents Bourj from al-Barajneh, Haret Bir HreikHassan, believed Ouzaii theand Lebanese Laylake-Solloum. state should The Haret retain Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three thearea authority known as to “securitydecide Hezbollah’s square,” which involvement is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) in Syria. Still, a sizeable minority (36.7%) indicated “Hezbollahmost of Hezbollah's leadership”’ offices as andtheir boasts first choice. the highest The sampling technique was used to determine that 60 resultsdegree in of Haret local Hreik security, could was reflect not included the perception in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary that the objectives of Lebanese state institutions survey. sampling unit for this activity. are aligned with those of Hezbollah. POLLING DAHIYEH Name: Syria (1) 5

A Hayya Bina Project From your neighborhood/village/family, do you know anyone May 2013 who was killed in Syria?

7.5Methodology Do you know anyone from your neighborhood/village/family whos part wasof its ongoingkilled in research Syria? activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 ABina contracted with a regionally based Tmales and 300 females) who represented a No answer: 0.3% research firm to conduct a groundbreaking public variety of social classes, ages and educational opinion poll of Dahiyeh residents. Once Hayya Bina backgrounds. The survey was administered via a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot “door-to-door” technique between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some revisions were made to improve the respondents’No: 24.3% ability to understand the questions being asked. Finally, under the supervision of a single field he selection process was based on an estimate of manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of Yes: 75.3%suburbs of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughout Lebanon. Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three area known as “security square,” which is home to stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity. POLLING DAHIYEH A Hayya Bina Project May 2013 Name: Syria (1) 7 7.6 Do you think the conflict 7.7What wouldWhat you preferwould as the outcome you ofprefer the crisis in asSyria? the outcome Methodology in Syria will end soon? of the crisis in Syria? s part of its ongoing research activities, Hayya he sample group consisted of 600 people (300 The results indicate that 56% Name: Syria (1) 6 While 58.5% support the idea of Assad remaining in Aof respondentsBina contracted have adopted with a regionally based power,Tmales 41.5% and would 300 females) still prefer who other represented outcomes. a This Hezbollah’s opinion that it is indicates that Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria is not research firm toDo conduct you think the a conflict groundbreaking in Syria will end soon? public variety of social classes, ages and educational winning the conflict and that the so much intended to defend the Syrian regime, but waropinion will soonpoll of be Dahiyeh over. residents. Once Hayya Bina tobackgrounds. curtail the threat The surveyfrom Sunni was radicals,administered which via now a and its partner finalized the questionnaire, a pilot extends“door-to-door” into Lebanon technique itself. between February 4 and poll was taken to assess the effectiveness of the February 25, and all respondents were Shia Muslims. questions. Based on the results of that test, some Opposition and Assad revisions were made to improve the respondents’ form unity government 13.5% ability to understand the questions being asked. Nature of solution is unimportant, he selection process was basedas long as on fighting an stops:estimate 12.3% of Finally, under theNo: supervision 24.5% Don't of know: a single 19.5% field manager, the poll was administered by 25 field T698 “clusters” of Shia Muslims living in the southern surveyors in Dahiyeh, specifically the areas of suburbsDon't know:of Beirut (known collectively as “Dahiyeh”) 14.5% Solution according to the Chiyyah, Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry, Bourj al-Barajneh, Bir of the 10,560 clusters situated throughoutLebanese way: Lebanon. 1.2% Hassan, Ouzaii and Laylake-Solloum. The Haret Hreik Population sampling was accomplished in three stages. First, the probability proportional to size (PPS) area known as “securityYes: square,” 56% which is home to Assad stays: 58.5% most of Hezbollah's offices and boasts the highest sampling technique was used to determine that 60 degree of local security, was not included in the (of n = 600) clusters should be considered the primary survey. sampling unit for this activity.