Banff CSN Statistical Overview

From mountain to sea

April 2019 Hilary Birnie & Craig Watson Council & Partnership Analysts Policy, Performance & Improvement Customer Communication & Improvement Business Services

Contents Banff CSN Area Overview ...... 3 Strategic Perspective ...... 3 Statistical Perspective ...... 7 Residents’ Perspective ...... 9 Professional Perspective ...... 11 Recommendations ...... 12 Characteristics / Location ...... 13 Main Settlements (Mid-2016 Population Figures) ...... 13 Demographic Overview ...... 14 Ageing Population ...... 17 Implications of an Ageing Population ...... 18 Population Change – Top 3 Data Zones ...... 20 Population Change – Bottom 3 Data Zones ...... 21 Data Zones Overview ...... 23 Appendix A - Banff CSN Area ...... 47 Appendix B - Aberdeenshire Context ...... 48 Forward Look ...... 52 General Economic Opportunities ...... 52 Future Skills Requirements ...... 52 Automation ...... 53 Digital Technology ...... 53 Demographics and School Capacity ...... 54 Analysing the ELC Expansion ...... 55 Effect of possible ELC wage disparities ...... 55 ELC Supply Capacity ...... 55 Female employment in the region expected to rise ...... 56 Public Sector Financial Outlook ...... 56 North Sea Oil Industry & Future Energy Sources ...... 56 Fairer Scotland Duty ...... 56 Community Empowerment ...... 57 Risks and Opportunities ...... 57

Banff CSN Area Overview

Strategic Perspective

The Banff CSN area is a relatively remote area of Aberdeenshire on the North East Coast covering Banff, Macduff, Whitehills, Aberchirder, Portsoy, Fordyce, Cornhill, Gardenstown and King Edward. The northerly part of the CSN area includes harbours and marinas and the more southerly areas are made up farmland and the entire CSN area is found in the Rural Housing Market. There are constraints to further expansion for some of the locations to prevent them from coalescing.

Figure ?? – Banff CSN in the context of the Aberdeen Housing Market Area and the Strategic Growth Corridors

Banff CSN Area

Employment Land (2016)

Strategic Growth Areas

Aberdeen Housing

Market Area

Source: Cadcorp Mapping System

Banff

Banff is a key settlement and an important administrative and regional service centre for Aberdeenshire Council. The lack of new small scale, affordable housing in Banff is an issue for the local community as is greater business development. Residents would like to see high wage jobs such as those provided for by software and other elements of the digital industry available to local people, and there is a desire for business-ready units to be made available locally. Community concerns have also been voiced over the long term maintenance of the existing bridge over the River Deveron. Characteristically, settlement growth in Banff operates at a slow rate of development due to market conditions.

Planning Objectives:

• To enhance the role of the settlement as an administrative and service centre. • To preserve the historic fabric and amenity of the settlement. • To protect the coastal character and setting of Banff. • To strengthen sense of place and identity. • To protect and enhance the role and attractiveness of the town as a tourist and visitor • destination. • To provide improved housing choice and meet local need in the settlement. • To support local services and facilities, including the schools. • To support opportunities for local employment. • To maintain the complementary functions of Banff and Macduff.

Macduff lies approximately 1.5 miles from Banff linked by the bridge, and the towns provide complimentary functions for each otheri and are therefore closely linked. Both towns are located within the authority’s Regeneration Priority Area and any future development is expected to promote regeneration in the areaii. It was first developed as a fishing harbour around which it has grown. Fishing boats still use the harbour however the principle use, and source of employment is now shipbuilding, ship repair and tourism. Recent development in the east of Macduff has provided affordable housing choices and there are opportunities for future housing and employment development in the Regeneration Priority Area. One of the planning objectives for this area is to support regeneration of the waterfront with a focus on marine and tourism industries.

Planning Objectives:

• To enhance the role of the settlement as a regional service centre. • To support regeneration of the waterfront with a focus on marine and tourism industries. • To provide opportunities for employment and retail. • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To provide housing choice. • To preserve the amenity and setting of the settlement.

Inverboyndie is a small village located less than a mile from Banff. It has very little housing but does have a large industrial estate located to the west and a caravan site to the North. Situated within the Regeneration Priority Area, Whitehills is a small coastal settlement located to the west of Banff and Macduff, and to the east of Portsoy. Along the coastal and harbour area, traditional buildings cluster around each other, painted distinctively in a variety of colours. The town has since developed inland and to the east, and is characterised by lower density, modern housing which has little in common with the traditional buildings. New development will require expansion of the primary school to meet future need.

Planning Objectives:

• To maintain the character and setting of the settlement and coastal landscape. • To prevent coalescence of the settlement with Banff. • To provide opportunity for employment. • To sustain and enhance the recreation and tourist potential of the area. • To preserve the amenity of the settlement.

The new Ladysbridge Village situated South of Whitehills is located within the Regeneration Priority Area. It is a newly developed, mixed use site with 93 houses built so far and more planned. It is close to prime agricultural land and land has been identified to support employment opportunities.

Planning Objectives:

• To help contribute to the overall sense of place in the community. • To preserve the historic core of the village centred on Ladysbridge House. • To provide local services and facilities. • To provide opportunity for local employment. • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To prevent coalescence with Boyndie.

Portsoy is another attractive fishing town 11km West of Banff and lies within the Regeneration Priority Area. The settlement has grown up around the 16th Century harbour and the built heritage quality of much of the settlement is recognised in its designation as a Conservation Area. The settlement contains several existing local services including local shops, hotels, sports facilities, primary school and a petrol station. The local development plan has identified future development of Portsoy to contribute to infrastructure and health care provision within the settlement.

The aspirations of the local community are strongly linked to the harbour, and retaining its integrity and viability are key priorities. Development aspirations are in favour of a mixed use development in Portsoy to create employment opportunities alongside housing (a lack of affordable housing is a local concern). The community also desire a site for a skateboard park, a cycle route around the village, improved healthcare facilities (including mental health provision), banking facilities, and improved public transport links.

Planning Objectives:

• To conserve the amenity of the settlement. • To conserve the historic fabric of the settlement including the harbour. • To support and enhance local services and facilities, including the primary school. • To provide housing choice to meet local need. • To provide opportunity for employment. • To improve opportunities and facilities for young people.

Cornhill is a small rural settlement situated to the southwest of Banff on the crossroads of the A95 and B9023. The village contains a number of amenities including several small local businesses, sports pitches, village hall and post office. There is the potential for more housing to be built in the next 1-2 yrs.

Planning Objectives:

• To retain the distinctive character of the village.

• To preserve the amenity and attractiveness of the settlement. • To strengthen the overall sense of place in the community. • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To support local services and facilities.

Aberchirder acts as a rural service centre with land identified for additional housing but no bids have yet been submitted. Fordyce is a small, attractive and green village which may expand by 5 homes.

Planning Objectives:

• To maintain the role of the settlement as a service centre. • To preserve the historic fabric and amenity of the settlement. • To provide opportunity for employment. • To sustain community facilities and services.

Gardenstown has one of the most spectacular settings of any coastal village in Aberdeenshire. Historically a fishing village it is now a popular tourist destination.

It has benefitted from public and private sector housing in recent years. Part of the settlement is in a conservation area. Again a lack of affordable housing is an issue for the local community. At the same time with low demand for housing in the area, sustaining and improving local services are also key priorities. This includes sustaining the primary school, safeguarding local businesses to attract new people to the area (and for people to stay permanently) whilst maintaining the coastal character and setting of the village. The community have expressed a desire for land to be reserved to provide a safe route to school, and for land to be provided for allotments.

Planning Objectives:

• To maintain the coastal character and setting of the settlement. • To sustain existing local services and facilities, including the primary school. • To support local employment and business opportunities. • To meet local housing need and provide housing choice in the settlement. • To help contribute to the overall sense of place in the community.

Fordyce is a historic settlement located at the foot of Durn Hill. Protected by Conservation Area status, the village has remained largely unchanged in recent years. The existing church, castle, wooded setting and distinctive architecture styles which include private gardens, make Fordyce an attractive and ‘green’ village.

Planning Objectives:

• To preserve the historic setting and amenity of the settlement. • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To help contribute to the overall sense of place in the community. • To support local services and facilities, including the primary school Sandend is a small fishing village situated where the Fordyce Burn flows into the firth at Sandend Bay. The settlement is located within the Regeneration Priority Area to the east of Portsoy. The old part of the village is made up of traditional cottages and has been designated as a Conservation Area. There are a number of local businesses within the village including the caravan park and fish wholesalers. Future development in the settlement should not detract from the attractive coastal setting of the village.

Planning Objectives:

• To preserve the amenity of the settlement. • To preserve the historic character and coastal setting • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To support existing community services and facilities.

Whitehills

Situated within the Regeneration Priority Area, Whitehills is a small coastal settlement located to the west of Banff and Macduff, and to the east of Portsoy. Along the coastal and harbour area traditional buildings cluster around each other, painted distinctively in a variety of colours. The town has since developed inland and to the east, and is characterised by lower density, modern housing which has little in common with the traditional buildings. New development will require contributing towards the future expansion of the primary school to meet future need.

Planning Objectives:

• To preserve and enhance the traditional townscape character of the settlement. • To strengthen overall sense of place and identity. • To protect the coastal character and setting. • To meet local housing need in the settlement. • To sustain existing local services and facilities, including Whitehills Primary School.

Demand for land in Aberdeenshire tends to be in those settlements concentrated around Aberdeen City such as Westhill, Kintore, Ellon and Portlethen. As a result, employment land in these areas tends to be taken up more quickly while large allocations of land in the north of Aberdeenshire are often taken up at a much slower rate. A number of relatively small sites have been developed, including a large council depot built in Macduff. Land is available for development, if required, in Macduff.

Most of the take up of new builds in Aberdeenshire has been within an 18 mile radius of Aberdeen City including sites that lie in or close to the Aberdeen Housing Market. Interest in land available for housing across the Banff CSN area has been limited by demand in some areas.

Banff and Macduff are also covered under the authority’s award winning Town Centre First principle. Council officers must complete a Town Centre First Impact Assessment to ensure that any implications council decisions may have on these town centres have been fully considered.

The area is well served by tourist destinations including marinas, Duff House, Banff Museum, Banff Harbour Marina, Boyndie visitor centre, Macduff Marine Aquarium, Duff Royal golf Club, Glassaugh Distillery and lies on the North East 250 – the circular Scottish Self Drive Route which passes along the Banffshire Coast.

There are other tourist destinations in neighbouring CSN areas e.g. Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Mintlaw which could also be used in promotion of the area as a tourist destination.

Statistical Perspective

Needs expanding/modification once document completed

As part of the data analysis, 65 indicators were correlated to mean (i.e. average) household income per Data Zone. This allows the correlation of each indicator to be ‘scored’ relative to the average household income in each respective area. The ‘score’ in this context is technically referred to as the ‘correlation coefficient’, which measures the strength of the relationship between two variables. The number can be anything between -1 and +1. The closer it is to either -1 or +1, the greater the correlation (negative or positive) between the two variables.

A ‘real world example’ relates to the size of a person’s foot and shoe size. In this example, the correlation coefficient would be close to +1 as the size of a shoe increases in tandem with the size of a person’s foot. The relationship is virtually linear.

In a social context the assumption is that outcomes tend to improve in tandem with higher incomes, to a greater or lesser extent. Generally speaking, the lower the income, the worse the outcomes experienced by the general population in that respective area and vice versa. This is generally the case in the Banff CSN area.

Figure ?? below plots the correlation coefficient scores in respect of each of the Domains in the SIMD 2016 relative to average household income.

Figure ?? – Correlation between average household income and the various SIMD Domain rankings, Banff and Aberdeenshire

Negative Correlation Positive Correlation When average household income is When average household income is high, these SIMD Domain rankings are high, these SIMD Domain rankings are likely to be relatively low. (A lower likely to be relatively high. (A high ranking is relatively unfavourable.) ranking is relatively favourable.)

0.45 Overall SIMD16 Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.77

0.71 Income Domain Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.85

0.51 Housing Domain Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.69

0.68 Health Domain Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.86

-0.75 Geographic Access Domain Rank (SMID 2016) -0.54

0.70 Employment Domain Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.84

0.60 Education Domain Rank (2016) 0.84

0.44 Crime Domain Rank (SIMD 2016) 0.56

“Negative Correlation” - The stronger the “Positive Correlation” - The stronger the Banff CSN Aberdeenshire relationship, the lower the figure. The relationship, the higher the figure. The minimum is -1. maximum is +1.

Source: Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation (2016)

Residents’ Perspective

A significant public engagement exercise took place in 2017 in respect of the Council’s priorities. Explicit feedback from residents and others revealed a number of key themes emerged. These themes are also pertinent in the context of Banff and Buchan:

• Communication. Communication needs to be at least maintained but ideally improved. This is pertinent both in terms of communication between the council and community members as well as among partner agencies, including internal council services. A number of residents desired open and honest two-way communication. Specific methods on how this can be achieved were generally not forthcoming.

• Community Involvement. A number of residents were of the opinion that communities should somehow be more involved in the decision-making process. This generally came in the form of consulting and engaging with communities prior to implementing policy. Some respondents expressed a belief that even when consulted their views were not taken into account.

• ‘Real’ Partnership Working. A number of respondents stressed the importance of ‘real’ partnership working to deliver shared outcomes. This tended to take the form of integrated / holistic planning and effective communication between services, agencies, and communities.

• Maintain / Improve Infrastructure / Facilities / Services. This theme encompassed a number of related issues. Respondents generally mentioned the need to improve transport infrastructure and/or transport links, the need to build (or make accessible) affordable and/or appropriate housing, and to generally improve internet and broadband coverage. A number of respondents also mentioned the need to ensure equitable access to community facilities (e.g. making them more affordable) and high quality and consistent service delivery regardless of geographic location.

In terms of the open-ended responses, Garioch residents were of a similar mind as Aberdeenshire residents generally, i.e. the same key themes emerged as per the above. With regards to the theme that dealt with Infrastructure, those at the community engagement sessions highlighted the importance of both digital and transport links. Reliable connectivity and good transport links are essential, they believed, for an area that relies heavily both on traditional agricultural businesses and multi-national enterprises.

In addition, a number of Banff & Buchan residents raised the following issues1:

• Deprivation. Banff & Buchan residents were more likely than the general population to apportion a higher score to the priority Partnership working to tackle the causal factors of deprivation (Theme 3 – Caring for Communities). Although respondents tended to refrain from explicitly referencing deprivation, a number of them mentioned the fact that derelict properties, boarded-up shops, and a general lack of cleanliness detracted from the aesthetic – as well as the economic – appeal of certain areas. Those attending the community engagement sessions felt there should be a coordinated approach by the council to boost tourism, a theme echoed by survey respondents – a goal that would be less likely to materialise, noted some, when the physical signs of ‘deprivation’ were evident.

1 Overall, approximately 114 residents of Banff & Buchan took part in this particular engagement exercise via the Citizens’ Panel network and SurveyMonkey™. Approximately 290 open-ended comments made by residents of Banff & Buchan, which were documented and categorised. Comments made by those attending the various engagement sessions in the area (approximately 35 individuals) were also documented and summarised.

• Active / Healthy Lifestyles. A number of respondents in Banff & Buchan highlighted the importance of active / healthy lifestyles. Some linked this to the adage: healthy body, healthy mind. Respondents were generally of the opinion that healthy lifestyles, and clubs and organisations with health as part of their remit, should be encouraged and promoted. A number of other respondents also generally felt that access to sports and recreational facilities should be made more affordable.

• Affordable Childcare / Play Groups / After-School Clubs. Childcare provision was mentioned a few times, mostly in the context of making it affordable (particularly during holiday periods), or of offering parents a varied choice, or of ensuring the child’s social and emotional needs were being met.

The Aberdeenshire Citizens’ Panel - Future Housing Priorities Sample size (B&B = 108)

In 2017 the Panel were asked questions about Future Housing Priorities to inform the Local Housing strategy 2018-2023. In Banff & Buchan the top three most important aims of the Local Housing Strategy were:

1. Provision of affordable housing for rent (82%) 2. Provision of appropriate housing and support for older people (62%) 3. Provision of appropriate housing and support for people with a physical or learning disability (39%)

Professional Perspective

To be completed by CPOs and other relevant stakeholders.

Recommendations

Needs expanding once document completed

• Undertake a review of services for elderly people in the region, with a focus on the following Data Zones:

1. S01007025 (Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill – 03) 2. S01007026 (Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill – 04) 3. S01007027 (Aberchirder and Whitehills – 01) 4. S01007028 (Aberchirder and Whitehills – 02) 5. S01007032 (Banff – 01) 6. S01007036 (Banff – 05)

These areas were chosen for a combination of factors: they are home to a relatively high number and proportion of people age 65+; collectively, the rate of population growth within the 65+ demographic is double that of the region as a whole; and on a relative basis some of them are among the more deprived areas in the region overall. (Data Zone S01007028 ranks particularly poorly in terms of Geographic Access to Services; and Data Zone 201007032 ranks particularly poorly in relation to recorded crime per 10,000 population.)

Characteristics / Location

99% of the land mass in Banff CSN is categorised as “Remote Rural” (settlements of less than 3,000 people with a drive time of 30+ minutes to a settlement of 10,000+)

132 Square Miles

132 square miles

Data Zone

CSN Boundary

As Data Zones and CSN areas are not co-terminus (i.e. they don’t share a border), the alignment is based on a ‘best fit’ approach. At 132 square miles, Banff CSN accounts for 5.4% of Aberdeenshire’s total land mass

Total Population (2017) Total Dwellings (2017) Average Household Income (2018)

17,392 8,853 £33,000 6.6 % of Aberdeenshire total 7.5% of Aberdeenshire total Aberdeenshire average - £45,000

Main Settlements (Mid-2016 Population Figures)

Population: 4,100

Banff Population: 3,950

Macduff

Portsoy Population: 1,740

Aberchirder Population: 1,260

Source: National Records of Scotland

Demographic Overview

The demography of any area depends on a multitude of factors. The number of births and deaths, the pattern of inward and outward migration, economic conditions, infrastructure, and the health of a population – all of these, and more, contribute to demographic trends which must guide policy makers, businesses, as well as health, education and social care providers2.

As Figure ?? below shows, the greatest population decreases have tended to occur in the North of Aberdeenshire (these areas are shaded dark blue). The greatest population increases have tended to occur in the areas bordering Aberdeen City (these areas are shaded dark red).

Figure ?? – 2011-17 population change depicted per CSN area

Source: Scotstat

The areas with the greatest population decreases over the period (dark blue shaded areas in the map above) are situated in the north of Aberdeenshire, specifically the north coastline, including the Banff CSN area, and the north portion of Formartine. The narrative in relation to the number of houses in these areas is the reverse of that concerning the high population growth areas. In general there has been low market demand in the area for housing development that does not encroach on neighbouring villages and towns.

House prices in high population growth areas (Portlethen, Inverurie and Westhill) have decreased by a greater margin than those elsewhere in Aberdeenshire, perhaps a result of greater supply: residential properties have collectively grown more in these areas than the Aberdeenshire rate. Nonetheless, population growth in these areas are outpacing the growth in residential properties, meaning that demand for houses over the next decade or so may likewise grow.

2 Limitations: Population change is driven by two main components: natural change and net migration. Such components are not currently available at a local level, nor are population projections. Local authority level data show Aberdeenshire’s population will increase by 7.1% between 2016 and 2026, with a large proportion (5.6%) a result of net migration (i.e. more people coming in than going out). Natural change (births minus deaths) will account for the remaining 1.5% increase.

Figure ?? below presents population data pertaining to the three main demographic groups – Children (0-15 years), those of Working Age (16-64 years), and those of Pensionable Age (65+ years).

The line graphs in the diagram show the changes in absolute numbers over time (2011-2017). The bar graphs also show changes over the same time period but they relate to the proportion of the total population each main demographic group accounts for.

Figure ?? – Banff CSN population per broad age group (Children, Working Age, and Pensionable Age), 2011-2017

Children Working Age Pensionable Age (0-15yrs) (16-64yrs) (65+yrs)

3,043 10,994 4,038

Population trends

2,906 10,448 3,654

Population proportions

17.2% 16.7% 62.1% 60.1% 20.7% 23.2%

The child population reduced by 4.5% between 2011-17, the working age population reduced by 5.0%, while the pensionable age population increased by 10.5%. The proportion of those in the pensionable age group relative to the total population increased from 20.7% in 2011 to 23.2% in 2017.

Source: Scotstat

Banff CSN’s reducing population is largely due to a decrease in the Working Age demographic (16-64 years), some of whom will have doubtless moved from the area over the years and some will have naturally progressed to the Pensionable Age demographic (65+ years). The number of those aged 65+ has increased over the period, and the number of children has decreased. The proportion of those aged 65+ in the general Banff area relative to the total population remains among the highest in Aberdeenshire (23.2% in Banff versus a CSN average of 18.6%). In other words, those of pensionable age make up more of the population in Banff than is the case elsewhere in Aberdeenshire. Banff CSN is therefore home to an ageing population, a phenomenon experienced by much of Aberdeenshire and the country as a whole.

Figure ?? below depicts population change at a micro (i.e. Data Zone) level within the general Banff CSN area. Each Data Zone is mapped and colour-coded based on the respective area’s absolute change in population. Areas experiencing relatively high growth in terms of population are shaded dark red; areas experiencing slower growth (or ‘depopulation’) are shaded dark blue.

Figure ?? – 2011-17 population change depicted per Banff CSN Data Zone

S01007028

Source: Scotstat

There are 22 Data Zones comprising Banff CSN. Only 6 recorded a population increase between 2011 and 2017. Banff CSN area is the 6th most populace CSN area in Aberdeenshire, accounting for approximately 6% of Aberdeenshire’s total population. The area’s population decreased between 2011 and 2017, falling from 17,691 to 17,392. This equates to a 1.7% decrease – the largest percentage drop in Aberdeenshire – a drop that runs contrary to both regional and national trends3.

The Data Zone with the largest population decrease is situated on the south side of Macduff. A Macduff Data Zone is also associated with the 2nd highest percentage increase over the period (S01007039). Data Zones to the west of Banff appear to have experienced greater depopulation relative to those to the east. Portsoy (in the west) and Gardenstown (in the east) are the exceptions. Data Zones registering a population increase tended to see a rise in older age groups. This is particularly the case for S01007028 which saw the 65+ population increase by 55% between 2011 and 2017.

Overall, Macduff appears to have experienced greater depopulation than Banff. This Data Zone is relatively large in the context of this CSN area and is situated to the south and west of Banff. Despite the increase, the area is not home to the largest population of 65+ in the Banff CSN area (in absolute terms). The largest 65+ population reside in S01007036 (the area generally to the east of Duff House Royal Golf Club, stretching north towards Castle Street).

The Data Zone experiencing the largest absolute reduction in population (S01007037) is situated in Macduff, specifically the southern portion of the town. It contains Macduff Medical Practice and Macduff Primary School. Approximately 95 fewer people reside in this area

3 Aberdeenshire’s population increased by 3.2% between 2011 and 2017 while Scotland’s increased by 2.4%. Aberdeenshire saw its population decrease in 2017 relative to the previous year. This is the first such occurrence since at least 2011. Scotland’s population increased every year between 2011 and 2017.

compared to a few years ago. The reduction is largely due to fewer children under 16 years of age.

According to the most recent Local Development Plan, there are several opportunities for future housing and employment development on the southern edge of the settlement. Development to the west is constrained by topography and a need to retain separation of Macduff from Banff (to ensure local identity is maintained) and to the east by the Royal Tarlair Golf Course. New development should provide housing choice within the Regeneration Priority Area and not detract from the attractive setting of the settlement.

Between 2014 and 2039 Aberdeenshire is projected to have a significant population increase of 19.7% - the third highest in Scotland and above the overall the Scottish growth rateiii. Aberdeenshire’s pensionable age group is projected to increase by over 35% with the 75+ age group rising by over 100%. The 90+ age group is projected to increase by 220% in 2041 relative to 2014 (an increase of 4,146).

This pattern of demographics results in a rising demand for services without the immediacy of corresponding increases in resources.

Ageing Population

Throughout Scotland life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are increasing for both men and women. Consequently, Scotland's dependency ratio (the ratio of people not of working age to those of working age) is projected to increase substantially over the next couple of decades.

Based on 2017 Data Zone population figures, Banff CSN’s dependency ratio is 2.59, meaning 2.59 people of working age to every person of pensionable age. This is the lowest rate in Aberdeenshire, as Figure ?? demonstrates:

Figure ??: ‘Dependency Ratio’ per CSN area*, 2017

Banff CSN 2.59 Aboyne CSN 2.59 Banchory CSN 2.75 Banff CSN’s ‘dependency ratio’ is the lowest in Aberdeenshire, meaning Huntly CSN 2.85 there are fewer working age people Turriff CSN 3.01 relative to those of pensionable age Fraserburgh CSN 3.17 than is the case elsewhere in Aberdeenshire. Mintlaw CSN 3.20 Alford CSN 3.37 Stonehaven CSN 3.37 Peterhead CSN 3.47 Laurencekirk CSN 3.48 Ellon CSN 3.53 Inverurie CSN 3.73 Kemnay CSN 4.18 Meldrum CSN 4.24 Westhill CSN 4.33 Portlethen CSN 4.69

*CSN Area relates to the Data Zones that comprise each CSN area using the ‘best fit’ approach (see page ?? for details)

Source: Scotstat

Implications of an Ageing Population

One implication of an ageing population is likely to be a decline in the proportion of the population who self-assess their health as good or very good. The proportion living with a long-standing illness, health problem or disability also increases with age.

Health

Just as there is a social gradient in health across the adult population, there is also a social gradient in healthy ageing that is rooted in inequality. The lower a person’s social status, the more likely they are to enter older age in poor health and die younger than people from higher social classes. Therefore, the best way to reduce health inequalities in older age is to reduce the inequalities of society across the life course.

Health inequalities are mostly a result of the social patterning of chronic diseases such as heart disease, stroke and cancer. As a result:

• Older people living in disadvantaged areas are more likely to die from coronary heart disease than those in more affluent areas; • Type 2 diabetes tends to be diagnosed in older people and is often associated with obesity, which is linked with lower socio-economic status; • Incidence rates increase with age for most cancers and there is a social gradient in incidence, the steepest of which is for smoking0related cancers such as laryngeal, lung and oral cavity cancers;

Carers

The ageing population means more people are living longer with long-term limiting illness and need to be cared for. The burden on carers, who are themselves ageing, is known to be rising.

Mobility

Older people may have mobility issues related to physical frailty (including from rheumatoid and osteoarthritis), sight loss, loss of a partner who can drive, or lack of access to a car.

Isolation

Physical and social isolation may be related to mobility, for example falls can cause loss of confidence which may affect older people’s independence. Isolation may be related to residential location, whether rural or urban, and availability of transport networks. Isolation may also result from cultural factors such as older people’s ‘invisibility’ to younger people. Isolation can be related to retirement, which may remove people from the day to day contacts of the working world and can result in lower income making participation in some social activities difficult.

Finance

At retirement the majority of people will experience a sharp drop in disposable income and, during retirement, inflation may eat away at their income. Sixty percent of single pensioner households in Scotland in 2009/10 lived on an annual income of £15,000 or less4. This has

4 The average net weekly income for pensioner couples in Scotland (after housing costs) was £548 compared to a UK average of £561. The average net weekly income for single pensioners in Scotland (after housing costs) was £257 compared to a UK

implications for many of the topics listed above and older people may no longer be able to live independently because they cannot fund the support they need. Even if state care is provided at home older people may feel they have lost control over their house and their life, almost as much as if they were in a care home.

As well as the influence of lifelong exposure to the harmful effects of inequality, a significant proportion of older people are affected by the damaging impact of living in poverty.

Recent Scottish Government figures show:

• Over half of single pensioner households and nearly half of pensioner couples in Scotland live in fuel poverty. • 15% of pensioners in Scotland were living in relative poverty in 2013-14 (12% after housing costs were factored in). • Female pensioners are more likely to live in poverty than male pensioners, largely a result of having fewer years of employment due to caring responsibilities.

Approximately 12.5% of the population within Banff CSN is female and of pensionable age. This is higher than the Aberdeenshire CSN average (9.8%) and the highest proportion in Aberdeenshire. The inference is: Banff CSN may account for the highest proportion of ‘pensioner poverty’ in Aberdeenshire. However, there is no way to corroborate this inference given the datasets available. There will likely be many contributing and mitigating factors (e.g. housing costs versus ownership, benefit uptake, savings, etc.).

The Scottish Government has made improving the quality of later life a National Outcome. A variety of legislation, strategies and policies have been implemented to support the health and wellbeing of older adults. At a local level, the integration of health and social care is intended to improve the way local partnerships plan for, organise and deliver the health and social care services needed by all adults, but particularly those in their older years.

Aberdeenshire Health and Social Care Partnership

Aberdeenshire Health and Social Care Partnership AHSCP) have prepared Summaries for Locality profiling. Banff & Buchan and Buchan has been compiled into one locality planiv The Banff and Buchan profile can be found here:

The four identified Priorities for Banff & Buchan are: • Reduce the number of unplanned hospital admissions particularly among older people • Develop the Workforce to meet the challenging demands of health and social care provision within Communities • To manage the impact of long-term alcohol and drug misuse on individuals, families, communities and resources • Reduce the demand on unplanned care provided

average of £250. (2016/17 prices). Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/pensioners-incomes-series-financial- year-201617

The following two diagrams present a selection of data points in relation to the areas experiencing the greatest population increase and decrease between 2011 and 2017.

Population Change – Top 3 Data Zones

Figure ?? –Top 3 Data Zones in the Banff CSN area in terms of population growth, 2011-17

S01007039

S01007035

S01007028

The map above depicts the areas that experienced the greatest increase in their respective populations in the Portlethen CSN area between 2011 and 2017. Table ?? below provides a few statistics pertaining to these areas, as well as the wider CSN area and Aberdeenshire as a whole.

Table ?? – Selection of latest data points per ‘Top 3’ Data Zones and other areas

Indicator S01007028 S01007039 S01007035 Banff CSN Aberdeenshire Total Population (2017) 867 983 814 17,392 261,800 % Child Population (2017) 16.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17% 18.7% % Working Age Population (2017) 58.0% 61.0% 60.0% 60% 62.7% % Pensionable Age Population (2017) 27.0% 18.0% 21.0% 23% 18.6% Average Household Income (2019) £40,518 £33,031 £24,701 £33,223 £45,000 Crime Rate per 10,000 pop. (SIMD 2016) 38.6 194.2 266.5 205.0 160.4 Comparative Illness Factor* (SIMD 2016) 105 100 125 86 56.1 Superfast Broadband Availability** (2018) 30.1% 100.0% 100.0% 73.4% 70% People on Universal Credit (Feb 2019) 16 25 43 442 3,350 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking (the higher, the better) 3,364 2,940 1,876 3,497 4,884 Average Pupil Attendance Rate (2012-17) 94.5% 93.6% 92.3% 93.7% 94.7% Working Age population with no qualifications* (SIMD 2016) 77.9 126.1 161.2 110.2 77.1 Mortality Ratio* (SIMD 2016) 41.0 88.0 106.0 95.0 82.3

** Standardised ratios. Scotland = 100. Anything below 100 is below the Scottish average and vice versa ** Superfast broadband figures relate to % of premises within each postcode. Figures aggregated to Data Zone level.

Population Change – Bottom 3 Data Zones

Figure ?? –Bottom 3 Data Zones in the Banff CSN area in terms of population growth, 2011-17

S01007044

S01007037

S01007023

The map above depicts the areas that experienced the greatest population decrease in the Banff CSN area between 2011 and 2017. Table ?? below provides a few statistics pertaining to these areas, as well as the wider CSN area and Aberdeenshire as a whole.

Table ?? – Selection of latest data points per ‘Bottom 3’ Data Zones and other areas

Indicator S01007023 S01007044 S01007037 Banff CSN Aberdeenshire Total Population (2017) 456 570 925 17,392 261,800 % Child Population (2017) 18.0% 11.0% 16.0% 17% 18.7% % Working Age Population (2017) 62.0% 59.0% 63.0% 60% 62.7% % Pensionable Age Population (2017) 20.0% 30.0% 21.0% 23% 18.6% Average Household Income (2019) £34,474 £31,921 £27,579 £33,223 £45,000 Crime Rate per 10,000 pop. (SIMD 2016) 62.9 61.6 248.8 205.0 160.4 Comparative Illness Factor* (SIMD 2016) 75 55 95 86 56.1 Superfast Broadband Availability** (2018) 24.6% 100.0% 100.0% 73.4% 70% People on Universal Credit (Feb 2019) 16 12 34 442 3,350 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking (the higher, the better) 4,525 4,233 3,561 3,497 4,884 Average Pupil Attendance Rate (2012-17) 95.1% 93.2% 94.2% 93.7% 94.7% Working Age population with no qualifications* (SIMD 2016) 80.3 81.3 140.7 110.2 77.1 Mortality Ratio* (SIMD 2016) 69.0 93.0 78.0 95.0 82.3

It is interesting to note that the higher growth areas generally rank lower than the areas experiencing ‘negative growth’ in terms of the overall SIMD 2016 rankings (the lower the ranking, the more deprived the area relative to all other areas in Scotland).

The higher growth areas are also associated with higher scores in respect of the Comparative Illness Factor (or CIF). The CIF is a combined count of the total number of people receiving one or more of: Disabled Living Allowance (DLA); Attendance Allowance; Incapacity Benefit (not receiving DLA); Employment Support Allowance; and Severe Disablement Allowance. A score above 100 denotes the count is higher than the Scottish average.

The Data Zone S01007035 has a CIF score of 125, which is 25% above the Scottish average. Coupled with that, it contains a relatively high proportion of children (19%), and a higher-than- average proportion of people with no qualifications. Household income is also relatively low in this Data Zone (£24,701). It is not inconceivable that such a confluence of factors may effect a higher incidence of child poverty in areas with similar characteristics. If so, it may have implications for officers at Community Planning level, particularly in light of the Child Poverty LOIP priority, as resources may be targeted at relatively small geographic localities. It would also be possible to keep track of such indicators over time, allowing officers to gauge the success of any future initiatives.

Data Zones Overview – Explanatory Note 1 of 2

Most of what follows should be self-explanatory. However, a couple of diagrams may require an explanation.

Mixed Relatively good Outcomes Outcomes The closer this dot is to the top-right hand corner of the diagram, the better that Data Zone’s ranking relative to all other Data Zones in Aberdeenshire.

There are 340 Data Zones in Aberdeenshire. Pages 25-46 present a

statistical overview of the 22 Data Zones Relatively poor Mixed that comprise the Banff CSN area. Outcomes Outcomes

The first one is shown above. It depicts the ranking of the Data Zone based on 30 indicators (Median Household Income; Lower Quartile Household Income; Difference between Lower Quartile & Median Household Income (i.e. income inequality); Mean Household Income; % of people in single person households (aged 65 and over) (Census 2011); Lone parents as a percentage of total population (Census 2011); SIMD crimes per 10,000 population (SIMD 2016); English Proficiency (% who don't speak English well or very well) (Census 2011); No. of Families presenting as homeless (2013/14 - 2017/18); Comparative Illness Factor (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); Hospital stays related to alcohol misuse (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); Hospital stays related to drug misuse (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); Standardised mortality ratio (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); Proportion of population being prescribed drugs for anxiety, depression or psychosis (SIMD 2016); Emergency stays in hospital (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); % of people with one or more long-term health condition (Census 2011); % of first-time mothers aged 19 and under (2011/12-13/14 to 2014/15-16/17 average); Self-reported general health (bad or very bad health) (Census 2011); Superfast Broadband availability (% premises) 2018; Bus Accessibility Score (Weekday) (2017); Bus Accessibility Score (Weekend) (2017); Proportion of people income deprived (SIMD 2016); Proportion of people employment deprived (SIMD 2016); Overall SIMD16 Rank (SIMD 2016); Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) Primary & Secondary Schools; Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average - 2011/12 to 2017/18) Highest average score; Working age people with no qualifications (Scotland = 100) (SIMD 2016); Proportion of people aged 16-19 not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016); Proportion of 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016); % of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016)

The black dot denotes the Data Zone’s ranking relative to all others in Aberdeenshire. The closer the dot is to the bottom-left of the graph, the poorer the outcomes relative to Aberdeenshire as a whole. Ideally, the dot should be in the green segment and as close to the top right of the graph as possible.

Data Zones Overview – Explanatory Note 2 of 2

Black dots represent the Data Zone’s ranking relative to all other Data Zones in Scotland per Domain

The other diagram that may require an explanation is shown to the left. This diagram represents SIMD 2016 data. There are 8 columns – each representing an SIMD Domain (e.g. Income, Employment, etc), as well as the overall ranking. 10 = 10% least deprived in 10 The black dots represent the respective Data Zone. This example relates to S01009630 Scotland 9 (Westhill North and South – 02) – one of the least deprived areas in Aberdeenshire and, 8 indeed, Scotland.

7 When the black dots are positioned in the upper part of the graph it means the Data Zone is 6 among the least deprived in Scotland and residents in the area generally experience

Decile 5 relatively good outcomes. In this example, according to SIMD 2016, S01009630 is among

Deprivation Deprivation 4 the least deprived areas in the country (despite the Geographic Access Domain showing the area in the middle of the deprivation spectrum). The opposite would be the case were 3 the black dots positioned towards the bottom of the diagram. 2 1 = 10% most deprived in 1 It’s important to note that the SIMD is a relative data tool. That is to say, Data Zones are Scotland ranked according to their relative position within the complete list of Scottish Data Zones. When a Data Zone is positioned among the 10% most deprived in Scotland, for instance, it simply means that at least 90% are less deprived relative to that particular Data Zone. The difference in terms of the actual indicator(s) used to determine individual rankings may be very slight, in some instances, between the most deprived deciles and least deprived deciles (this is particularly the case in relation to the Geographic Access Domain).

Each column represents an SIMD Domain

The Overall Ranking is also shown for completeness

S01007023 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 84 (18%) 282 (62%) 90 (20%) £ £28,819 0.25

Map of S01007023 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 39% E: 14% 196 B: 15% F: 6% C: 10% G: 2% D: 14% H: 0%

S01007023 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84 70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4525 60-64 48.9% 51.1% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 62.9 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.0% 30-34 Age Group Age % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 5.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.7% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 8.7 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 24.6 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 75.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 95.1 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.5 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 80.3 F M Total 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 0.0% 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 8.6% 0-15 39 45 84 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 5.1% 16-64 148 134 282

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 3.8%

65+ 46 44 90 75.8 82.8 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 69.0

Total 233 223 456 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 100.1

S01007024 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 176 (18%) 602 (60%) 223 (22%) £ £31,457 0.25

Map of S01007024 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 24% E: 17% 410 B: 12% F: 7% C: 20% G: 1% D: 19% H: 1%

S01007024 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3482 60-64 50.4% 49.6% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 177.8 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 0 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.9% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 14.1 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 6.3 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 65.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 93.8 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.0 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 93.6 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 3.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 10.0% 0-15 88 88 176 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 4.2% 16-64 296 306 602

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 5.3%

65+ 112 111 223 75.8 82.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 140.0

Total 496 505 1001 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 75.8

S01007025 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 145 (17%) 482 (56%) 227 (27%) £ £22,571 0.26

Map of S01007025 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 58% E: 5% 401 B: 22% F: 1% C: 11% G: 0% D: 3% H: 0%

S01007025 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84 70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3016 60-64 48.6% 51.4% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 120.2 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 12.0% 30-34 Age Group Age % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 20.0% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 7.2 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 85.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 92.7 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.2 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 142.1 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 6.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 1.8% 0-15 68 77 145 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 9.5% 16-64 247 235 482

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 8.1%

65+ 124 103 227 75.8 82.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 94.0

Total 439 415 854 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 91.9

S01007026 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 118 (13%) 503 (56%) 281 (31%) £ £28,037 0.27

Map of S01007026 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A:30% E: 19% 433 B: 16% F: 3% C: 15% G: 0% D: 16% H: 0%

S01007026 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4433 45.3% 54.7% 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 191.1 Males Females 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 6 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 21.8% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 6.0 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 65.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.3 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 113.7 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 9.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 5.9% 0-15 65 53 118 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 11.2% 16-64 255 248 503 % of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 4.0%

65+ 173 108 281 75.8 82.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 124.0

Total 493 409 902 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 81.8

S01007027 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 193 (19%) 573 (56%) 259 (25%) £ £27,910 0.27

Map of S01007027 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 44% E: 14% 475 B: 17% F: 3% C: 11% G: 0% D: 10% H: 0%

S01007027 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3182 60-64 48.6% 51.4% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 169.7 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 7 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.3% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 7.0 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 97.9 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 105.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.6 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.2 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 111.7 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 4.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 0.6% 0-15 93 100 193 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 8.1% 16-64 297 276 573

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 6.7%

65+ 137 122 259 79.1 85.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 101.0

Total 527 498 1025 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 80.6

S01007028 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 135 (16%) 500 (58%) 2332 (27%) £ £34,602 0.24

Map of S01007028 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 16% E: 22% 382 B: 13% F: 12% C: 15% G: 3% D: 19% H: 0%

S01007028 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3364 60-64 50.3% 49.7% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 38.6 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.1% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 10.7 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 30.1 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 105.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.5 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.4 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 77.9 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 11.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 8.3% 0-15 74 61 135 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 4.1% 16-64 246 254 500

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 5.9%

65+ 111 121 232 79.1 85.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 41.0

Total 431 436 867 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 56.6

S01007029 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 97 (18%) 326 (62%) 107 (20%) £ £30,945 0.24

Map of S01007029 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 9% E: 22% 223 B: 13% F: 8% C: 24% G: 1% D: 23% H: 0%

S01007029 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4011 60-64 51.5% 48.5% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 0.0 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 5.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 14.1% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 13.6 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 0.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 70.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.0 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.5 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 72.0 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 4.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 10.8% 0-15 46 51 97 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 5.9% 16-64 159 167 326

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 4.6%

65+ 52 55 107 79.1 85.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 89.0

Total 257 273 530 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 67.8

S01007030 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 138 (18%) 430 (57%) 187 (25%) £ £26,987 0.26

Map of S01007030 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 51% E: 22% 339 B: 6% F: 2% C: 7% G: 0% D: 13% H: 0%

S01007030 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3924 60-64 48.9% 51.1% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 236.6 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.3% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 8.8 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 52.5 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 65.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.1 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.1 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 118.8 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 6.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 6.2% 0-15 61 77 138 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 5.7% 16-64 217 213 430

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 6.3%

65+ 108 79 187 79.1 85.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 112.0

Total 386 369 755 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 72.9

S01007031 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 130 (21%) 374 (59%) 129 (20%) £ £27,124 0.29

Map of S01007031 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 39% E: 10% 307 B: 15% F: 1% C: 15% G: 2% D: 20% H: 0%

S01007031 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 2740 60-64 49.4% 50.6% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 126.0 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 12.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.1% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 8.9 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 66.7 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 105.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 92.5 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.2 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 119.5 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 6.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 4.5% 0-15 73 57 130 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 7.8% 16-64 180 194 374

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 5.7%

65+ 67 62 129 79.1 85.2 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 89.0

Total 320 313 633 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 74.6

S01007032 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 127 (13%) 606 (62%) 249 (25%) £ £22,065 0.28

Map of S01007032 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 49% E: 4% 524 B: 20% F: 1% C: 16% G: 0% D: 10% H: 0%

S01007032 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 2369 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 654.5 50-54 53.4% 46.6% Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 10 40-44 Males Females % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 14.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 14.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 17.1% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 3.2 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 120.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 93.2 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 119.6 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 5.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 3.3% 0-15 59 68 127 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 11.3% 16-64 267 339 606

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 8.8%

65+ 132 117 249 75.3 79.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 96.0

Total 458 524 982 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 89.4

S01007033 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 121 (17%) 453 (63%) 144 (20%) £ £24,598 0.25

Map of S01007033 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 41% E: 14% 339 B: 37% F: 1% C: 3% G: 0% D: 5% H: 0%

S01007033 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3321 60-64 49.4% 50.6% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 181.4 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 7 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 13.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.8% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 4.5 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 95.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.0 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 120.1 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 2.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 6.5% 0-15 61 60 121 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 7.0% 16-64 232 221 453

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 6.9%

65+ 70 74 144 75.3 79.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 102.0

Total 363 355 718 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 86.2

S01007034 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 100 (17%) 383 (64%) 120 (20%) £ £25,353 0.26

Map of S01007034 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 48% E: 6% 294 B: 10% F: 1% C: 19% G: 0% D: 14% H: 0%

S01007034 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3328 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 177.5 50.4% 49.6% 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 Males Females 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.6% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 3.4 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 80.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 92.5 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.1 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 99.6 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 4.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 4.5% 0-15 52 48 100 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 6.3% 16-64 182 201 383

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 8.1%

65+ 65 55 120 75.3 79.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 88.0

Total 299 304 603 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 95.7

S01007035 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 154 (19%) 490 (60%) 170 (21%) £ £20,580 0.24

Map of S01007035 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 83% E: 3% 409 B: 9% F: 0% C: 4% G: 0% D: 1% H: 0%

S01007035 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 1876 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 266.5 48.5% 51.5% 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 7 Males Females 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 18.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 13.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 20.0% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 4.4 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 125.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 92.3 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 4.8 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 161.2 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 12.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 2.4% 0-15 75 79 154 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 9.8% 16-64 245 245 490

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 13.0%

65+ 99 71 170 82.8 N/A Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 106.0

Total 419 395 814 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 97.0

S01007036 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 139 (14%) 540 (56%) 283 (29%) £ £31,320 0.28

Map of S01007036 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 36% E: 26% 408 B: 6% F: 13% C: 5% G: 6% D: 9% H: 0%

S01007036 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4623 60-64 50.4% 49.6% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 327.0 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.6% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 5.6 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 92.9 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 60.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 95.4 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.5 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 106.3 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 6.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 8.9% 0-15 60 79 139 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 7.2% 16-64 274 266 540

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 5.0%

65+ 170 113 283 75.3 79.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 144.0

Total 504 458 962 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 77.5

S01007037 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 144 (16%) 587 (63%) 194 (21%) £ £22,153 0.26

Map of S01007037 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 54% E: 7% 438 B: 21% F: 0% C: 10% G: 0% D: 7% H: 0%

S01007037 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3561 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 248.8 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 9 50.4% 49.6% 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0% Males Females

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 17.5% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 4.7 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 95.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.2 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 140.7 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 7.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 5.6% 0-15 63 81 144 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 8.4% 16-64 306 281 587

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 11.0%

65+ 110 84 194 77.7 82.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 78.0

Total 479 446 925 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 76.7

S01007038 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 123 (18%) 452 (66%) 111 (16%) £ £25,918 0.25

Map of S01007038 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 41% E: 4% 304 B: 25% F: 1% C: 18% G: 0% D: 10% H: 0%

S01007038 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3149 60-64 52.2% 47.8% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 419.1 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 8 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 13.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 12.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 14.5% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 3.1 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 45 25 5 15 35 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 100.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 93.9 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 114.8 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 4.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 3.8% 0-15 53 70 123 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 6.2% 16-64 217 235 452

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 11.4%

65+ 58 53 111 77.7 82.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 55.0

Total 328 358 686 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 81.2

S01007039 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 207 (21%) 601 (61%) 175 (18%) £ £27,093 0.27

Map of S01007039 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 47% E: 16% 441 B: 10% F: 5% C: 10% G: 1% D: 12% H: 0%

S01007039 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 2940 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 194.2 49.9% 50.1% 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 6 Males Females 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 14.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 11.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 13.8% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 5.1 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 50 30 10 10 30 50 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 100.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 93.6 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.1 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 126.1 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 3.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 6.9% 0-15 99 108 207 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 4.8% 16-64 299 302 601

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 6.7%

65+ 94 81 175 77.7 82.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 88.0

Total 492 491 983 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 82.5

S01007040 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 116 (19%) 368 (61%) 118 (20%) £ £22,173 0.26

Map of S01007040 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 61% E: 10% 294 B: 10% F: 3% C: 8% G: 0% D: 7% H: 0%

S01007040 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3806 60-64 50.4% 49.6% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 258.2 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 17.6% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 3.5 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 80.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.6 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.4 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 134.3 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 12.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 4.9% 0-15 62 54 116 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 8.7% 16-64 188 180 368

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 14.2%

65+ 69 49 118 77.7 82.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 90.0

Total 319 283 602 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 81.4

S01007041 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 97 (14%) 463 (65%) 151 (21%) £ £26,089 0.26

Map of S01007041 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 44% E: 12% 363 B: 14% F: 2% C: 14% G: 1% D: 14% H: 0%

S01007041 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 3862 60-64 52.5% 47.5% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 307.2 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) 6 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.4% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 3.8 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 80.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 91.3 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.4 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 104.0 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 4.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 5.4% 0-15 46 51 97 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 10.2% 16-64 215 248 463

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 7.3%

65+ 77 74 151 77.7 82.5 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 80.0

Total 338 373 711 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 89.7

S01007043 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 350 (17%) 1,236 (61%) 440 (22%) £ £38,544 0.24

Map of S01007043 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 18% E: 20% 404 B: 12% F: 12% C: 14% G: 3% D: 19% H: 0%

S01007043 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

90+ Lowest Highest in Shire in Shire 80-84 70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4373 60-64 52.5% 47.5% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 102.1 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0% 30-34 Age Group Age % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 4.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.5% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 12.8 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 2.0 120 70 20 30 80 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 60.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.1 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.7 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 94.1 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 3.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 9.6% 0-15 166 184 350 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 3.1% 16-64 580 656 1236

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 2.2%

65+ 216 224 440 78.0 82.3 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 104.0

Total 962 1064 2026 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 70.0

S01007044 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 61 (11%) 336 (59%) 173 (30%) £ £26,089 0.27

Map of S01007044 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 51% E: 11% 287 B: 17% F: 8% C: 7% G: 0% D: 5% H: 0%

S01007044 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 4233 49.6% 50.4% 60-64 Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 61.6 Males Females 50-54 Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 15.4% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 8.7 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 100.0 40 20 0 20 40 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 55.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 93.2 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.1 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 81.3 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 5.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 2.3% 0-15 26 35 61 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 8.2% 16-64 168 168 336

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 2.7%

65+ 93 80 173 78.0 82.3 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 93.0

Total 287 283 570 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 70.3

S01007045 Overview Children (0-15yrs) Working Age (16-64yrs) Pensionable Age (65+ yrs) Median Household Income Gini Coefficient 252 (16%) 958 (60%) 390 (24%) £ £34,853 0.25

Map of S01007045 SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Aberdeenshire Context

10 Mixed Relatively good 9 Outcomes Outcomes 8

Decile 5

Deprivation Deprivation 4 3 2 Relatively poor Mixed 1 Outcomes Outcomes

Total Households: Council Tax Bands:

A: 16% E: 20% 332 B: 15% F: 8% C: 14% G: 2% D: 25% H: 0%

S01007045 Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84

70-74 Overall SIMD 2016 Ranking 2821 60-64 49.3% 50.8% Crime rate per 10,000 people (SIMD 2016) 189.7 50-54 Males Females Number of families with children presenting as homeless (2013-17) <5 40-44 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0%

Age Group Age 30-34 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.0% 20-24 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (SIMD 2016) 16.7% 10-14 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 15.8 0-4 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2018) 40.7 100 50 0 50 100 Comparative Illness Factor (SIMD 2016) 95.0 Pupil Attendance Rate (3-year average 2012/13 - 2016/17) 94.4 Educational attainment of school leavers (5-year average to 2017/18) 5.3 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) Working age people with no qualifications (SIMD 2016) 93.3 16-19 yr-olds not in full time education, employment or training (SIMD 2016) 11.0% F M Total 17-21 yr-olds entering in to full time higher education (SIMD 2016) 5.3% 0-15 120 132 252 % of people in single person households (aged 65+) (Census 2011) 3.6% 16-64 492 466 958

% of people in households that are overcrowded (SIMD 2016) 4.9%

65+ 200 190 390 78.0 82.3 Standardised mortality ratio (SIMD 2016) 106.0

Total 812 788 1600 Emergency stays in hospital (SIMD 2016) 75.6

Appendix A - Banff CSN Area

This report forms part of a series of documents that profile the 17 CSN areas. Data Zones were selected as the geography of choice in terms of datasets. As CSN areas are not co- terminus with any statistical geography (i.e. they don’t share a border with Data Zones or Intermediate Zones or Output Areas), the alignment is based on a ‘best fit’ approach.

The following map shows the Banff CSN boundary and the table provide details of the Data Zones that comprise the Banff CSN area. Most of the data sets that refer to the Banff CSN area relate to the Data Zones listed below.

Figure ?? – Banff CSN area

Source: Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016; Cadcorp mapping system

Appendix B - Aberdeenshire Context

Councils throughout Scotland face several challenges, not least the requirement to deliver a wide range of services during a period of increasing demand and diminishing resources.

Transformational change is therefore becoming increasingly important in order to meet current and future challenges. These challenges may be catalogued under the general headings of known and unknown quantities. Prime among the former group is Aberdeenshire’s changing demographics, with pressures likely to come from both ends of the age spectrum. Prime among the latter is the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, which could have profound implications for local authorities, but the outcome of ongoing negotiations is far from certain. Changes to the education system and local governance also have the potential to significantly impact the role of Councils – but again the details have yet to be determined. Similarly, the general direction of travel for public sector organisations can leave considerable room for interpretation. The move to increase regional collaboration in the education sphere, for example, could presage a period of further amalgamation of local government services. It is therefore possible that regional partnerships will gain greater prominence in future, perhaps driven by budgetary considerations and common regional goals. Such a structural model will doubtless affect several services and work-streams within Aberdeenshire and beyond.

Regional partnerships, participatory budgeting, holistic planning, ever increasing community involvement – these themes are likely to gain traction in the years ahead as common challenges crystallise, shared goals emerge, and resources became scarcer.

The task of negating the impact of these challenges may be categorised generally as ‘future proofing’ the region, ensuring it remains relevant and prosperous in an increasingly global world. Among other things, this will involve harnessing the rich and manifold assets at our disposal in order to realise the region’s global economic ambitions; ensuring health and social care services are delivered efficiently and to a high standard; and safeguarding the future of Aberdeenshire’s children and young people – in short, it will involve the effectual delivery of the Council’s eleven priorities, all of which are interlinked to a greater or lesser degree and tend towards realising the Council’s vision as well as the Scottish Government’s overarching purpose.

In many ways Aberdeenshire is in an enviable position. The Council’s system of financial management appears robust and fit for purpose, a critical function given the current climate – and especially so considering the Scottish Government’s practice of apportioning single-year settlements and Aberdeenshire’s relatively low settlement per head of population. Robust financial management is therefore a valuable organisational asset, allowing it to deliver services within well-defined financial parameters. This is a credit to all stakeholders, not just those with a financial role. Other major assets for the region include, but are by no means limited to, the wherewithal of residents – relatively highly skilled, generally well paid, healthy, tolerant and peaceable – and the strengths of both the public and private sectors. These strengths will doubtless touch and positively affect the lives of residents and visitors alike.

Aberdeenshire, by any measure, offers an excellent quality of life, and opportunities abound. These are solid foundations on which to advance.

Each priority is summarised below:

Support a strong, sustainable, diverse and successful economy

• The North East of Scotland is among the most prosperous regions in the UK. Despite recent economic impediments, the long-term growth trend will likely continue over the forthcoming decade. • The challenge for Aberdeenshire is to both support and develop traditional industries whilst encouraging innovation and diversification into new areas and to continue to make the region a more attractive proposition for visitors and investors, as well as current and prospective residents. This entails, among other things, continuing to improve infrastructure (digital, transport and housing), and ensuring future skills requirements are met in an age of increasing automation.

Have the best possible transport and digital links across our communities

• Many parts of Aberdeenshire are classed as rural and as such, although their population density is less than the main towns, good connectivity is essential. The Scottish Government has committed to developing and delivering world class digital infrastructure across Scotland by 2020. Current coverage is inadequate and digital providers appear reluctant to invest in the necessary infrastructure. Reliable digital infrastructure development in the North East will only be delivered through committed and coordinated partnership between public and private sector partnerships. • Transport Infrastructure in Aberdeenshire is improving, the long awaited AWPR is due to open by summer 2019 and will significantly improve travel times for residents and businesses.

Provide the best life chances for all our children and young people by raising levels of attainment and achievement

• Levels of attainment are generally increasing across Aberdeenshire for both primary and secondary school pupils, and Aberdeenshire pupils tend to outperform their Scottish counterparts in terms of literacy and numeracy. • An attainment gap exists within Aberdeenshire. However, that gap is narrowing. • An increasing child population will put pressure on school rolls. Over-capacity issues will affect several schools throughout Aberdeenshire over the next few years. Several promising initiatives/projects are underway to negate these developments, such as the community campuses at Peterhead and Inverurie.

Work with parents and carers to support children through every stage of their

development

• Large scale changes to the childcare system in Scotland, namely the plan to almost double the level of childcare by 2020, while generally welcome, poses significant risks due to the scale of the challenges in finding a new workforce and ensuring facilities are appropriate and fit for purpose within the timeframe provided. • Principles of the expansion centre on high-quality, accessible, affordable and flexible ELC provision. Consistent, flexible service provision may prove challenging in remote and/or small communities, and in some cases will be more expensive to deliver.

Encourage active lifestyles and promote well-being with a focus on obesity and mental health

• There are health inequalities in Aberdeenshire, which, if left unchallenged, will present the NHS, H&SCP and the Council with significant challenges in future. To do nothing is not an option. • Early intervention to tackle mental health issues can tackle problems earlier, be more cost effective in the long term. The support for people with mental health problems will need to come from a variety of sources – council, health services and youth justice. • In 2010 it was suggested that 40% of the Scottish population could be classed as obese by 2030. Campaigns to get the population to be more active have not been very successful. This suggests that health improvement activities to reduce obesity need to be more targeted.

Have the right mix of housing across all of Aberdeenshire

• Housing has an important influence on poverty and health inequalities in Scotland. • As Health and Social Care integration evolves with fully established partnerships, opportunities should emerge to enhance joint planning and delivery between Housing and the Partnership. • The roll out of Universal Credit (Social Security Reforms) will have an impact on both revenue and service users. • Most affordable housing in Aberdeenshire is provided through section 75 agreements with developers and any slowing of the build-out rate may make affordable housing targets difficult to deliver.

Support the delivery of the Health and Social Care strategic plan

• There is a need to reduce costs associated with delivering health and social care in Aberdeenshire. Increasing population and changes in household composition, workforce supply and the availability of financial resources will require transformation of Services. This will include delivering services digitally however the digital network is not currently capable of delivering the speed and reliability required.

Work to reduce poverty and inequalities within our communities

• Poverty rates in Scotland appear to be rising slowly along with income inequality after a decline following the recession. • Aberdeenshire is often thought of as a region without poverty. Indeed, it includes two parliamentary constituencies with the lowest levels of child poverty in Scotland and the UK. However, there are pockets of poverty in Aberdeenshire leading to inequality for some people. • Experiencing or growing up in poverty affects people’s lifelong decision-making style. People living in poverty make decisions based on coping with present stressful circumstances often at the expense of future goals. This means that people may not reach their true potential and never climb out of poverty.

Deliver responsible, long-term financial planning

• Councils in Scotland received a further real-terms reduction in their funding from the Scottish Government in 2018/19, reflecting the overall trend and direction of travel. This is against the backdrop of increasing cost pressures, and, in the context of Aberdeenshire, a relatively low Settlement Grant per head of population. The greatest stress on future budgets (besides real terms reductions) will likely come from demographic changes. • Single-year settlements remain challenging in terms of long-term financial planning. • Checks and balances within the system locally appear robust and fit for purpose.

Have the right people, in the right place, doing the right thing, at the right time

• Aberdeenshire Council’s recruitment and selection procedure provides a clear guide in order to ensure a consistent, high standard of recruitment and selection practice. • Transformational change is increasingly important to councils as they seek to improve local outcomes with less money. Successful transformation requires robust planning, clear and coherent leadership and suitably skilled staff.

Protect our special environment, including tackling climate change by reducing

greenhouse gas emissions

• Climate change action will require significant changes to organisational culture. It often has substantial staffing and financial demands which could impact on essential front line services. • Aberdeenshire Council is in some respects leading the way in efforts to ‘decarbonise’, that is, to reduce CO2 emissions. The Council was the first in Scotland to develop and approve a Carbon Budget process • Further efforts are required in order to ensure carbon is being considered in all reports, proposals and projects so that the council’s own reduction targets are met. Making the link to financial savings has and will continue to be key.

Forward Look

The following section provides details of general issues that may affect both Aberdeenshire and the wider CSN area in future.

General Economic Opportunities

On top of the opportunity represented by continued oil and gas production, the deep pool of applied science and engineering expertise in the region is well placed to capitalise on a number of emerging complementary opportunities.

Many opportunities will have strategic value to both Scotland and the UK, including: renewable energy, decommissioning, unconventional oil & gas, global export of oilfield services, energy Research & Development (R&D), particularly that which focuses on scale-up and translational research; and the wider knowledge economy, for example life sciences, food and drink, agriculture and tourism.

Future Skills Requirements

Oil & Gas: The oil and gas industry remains a hugely valuable asset to the UK, currently employing and supporting around 1 out of every 100 jobs in the UKv. There are still up to an estimated 20 billion barrels of remaining hydrocarbons to be recovered. However, these will become increasingly more challenging to extract.

A reportvi into UK oil and gas workforce dynamics stated the existing UKCS workforce is likely to continue to decline from the 2017 baseline of 170,000, with the overall number of people expected to reduce to around 130,000 in line with production, ongoing decommissioning activities and investment.

The sector will likely need to recruit over 40,000 people between 2018 and 2035 to offset natural attrition and to ensure it can support Vision 2035 and the broader energy diversification agenda. This includes 10,000 new posts in areas such as data science, data analytics, robotics, material science, change management and remote operations.

With over 40,000 people potentially entering the industry over the next 20 years and with a substantial proportion of the workforce to be up-skilled, there is a critical role for training providers, vocational institutes and universities to help future-proof the sector and to ensure the UK retains its reputation as a leading energy basin in the world.

Health & Social Care: There is a need to prepare for increased demand for workers in the Health & Social Care sector. Currently, this sector is the fifth largest in the area, accounting for 11,000 jobs (9% of total employment) and is forecast to increase by 2027. It is likely that demand in this sector will increase over the coming years, given the expansion of free early learning and childcare. This is likely to have significant implications for the sectoral workforce, with increased demand for nurseries, day care facilities and childminders across Aberdeenshire.

Manufacturing: Conversely, total employment within the Manufacturing and the Primary industries is projected to decrease between now and 2027. These sectors account for a combined 24% of total employment across Aberdeenshire and a similar proportion of total GVA in the area – some £1.72 billion.

Any technological advances or increases in automation may impact the Manufacturing sector in particular, potentially having a further negative impact on employment. Low-skilled jobs are also at risk from automation.

Many jobs within the wholesale and retail sector are categorised as ‘low-skilled’ (75% are in SOC 7-9 occupations). This sector is the 2nd largest in Aberdeenshire and is forecast to account for 17,000 jobs by 2027 (13% of total employment). Therefore, a significant proportion of jobs within Aberdeenshire may be at risk of automation in future.

However, large-scale automation will take years before it’s fully embedded in the business practices of local enterprises. Technical, economic, and social factors will determine the pace and extent of automation, e.g. technical feasibility, the cost of technology, competition with labour including skills and supply and demand dynamics, performance benefits (including but not limited to labour cost savings), and social and regulatory acceptance.

Automation

The word ‘robot’ was first coined in a 1920 play about factory androids that each do the work of two-and-a-half humans at the fraction of the cost. Science fiction has since become business fact: robots are common place in manufacturing, and algorithms are playing an ever- larger role in companies from the Royal Mail to Amazonvii.

Robots could soon be working autonomously alongside humans on a North Sea platform as part of a world-first project from the Oil & Gas Technology Centre. The landmark project could start a revolution in robotics offshore leading to improvements in safety, productivity enhancements, and cost reductionsviii.

For business, the performance benefits of automation are relatively clear, but the issues are more complicated for policy-makers. Policy-makers will doubtless embrace the opportunity for their respective economies to benefit from the productivity growth potential; and they will likely put in place policies to encourage investment and market incentives to encourage continued progress and innovation.

At the same time, policy-makers must evolve and innovate policies that help workers and institutions adapt to the impact on employment. This will likely include rethinking education and training, income support and safety nets, as well as transition support for those dislocated by the changing nature of employment.

Individuals in the workplace will need to engage more comprehensively with machines as part of their everyday activities and acquire new skills that will be in demand in the new automation age.

Although Aberdeenshire is in some respects vulnerable to increasing automation given the current dynamics of the jobs market, the area is also well positioned. Digital infrastructure and associated skills will be a key area for the region given its global economic ambitions.

Digital Technology

Digital technology is at the heart of daily life and continues to have an unprecedented impact on the wider economy.

Although the situation in Aberdeenshire has improved over recent years, digital coverage is inadequate for an ambitious, forward-thinking and business-friendly region. Ultrafast

broadband is virtually non-existent in Aberdeenshire and the North East generally, albeit a similar story may be said of most regions in Scotland.

Ultrafast broadband to mobile masts will likely improve mobile coverage, an important consideration in an increasingly mobile world – nearly 95% of adults in the UK own a mobile phone, smartphones have overtaken laptops as internet users’ device of choice, and there are now more mobile devices than peopleix.

The roll-out, quality, and coverage of 4G and 5G mobile phone services will be enhanced if the mobile network operators are able to access high bandwidth, ultrafast infrastructure, with 5G services being strongly reliant on fibre for deliveryx.

Reliable digital infrastructure can reduce costs and enhance revenues for businesses, promote flexible and remote working, and has important inclusion impacts, presenting opportunities for those located in more remote locations.

The Scottish Government recently announced an initiativexi to help deliver more broadband infrastructure. Telecommunications firms can now benefit from 100% non-domestic rates relief on new fibre broadband infrastructure to help them make the business case to install in Scotland. The rates relief for businesses investing in new infrastructure, which came into effect on 1 April 2019, will last for ten years - five years longer than the UK Government’s fibre broadband package.

World class digital infrastructure is fundamental to the Aberdeen City Region Deal (CRD) in supporting the delivery of the objectives of the Oil and Gas Technology Centre and the export and internationalisation aspirations of the sector, as well as facilitating the effectiveness of the Hubs for Innovation in Life Sciences and Food and Drinkxii.

Plans to provide ultrafast connectivity for business premises should also lay the ‘vital spines’ for residential superfast connections in the Aberdeen CRD zone (effectively the Aberdeen Housing Market Area)xiii.

Failure to support the development of ultrafast infrastructure will likely result in a market failure situation. It will increase delivery costs for public bodies, inhibit business competitiveness, and diminish the attractiveness of Aberdeenshire as a place in which to live, work, and invest at regional, national, and international levels – critical elements to consider in what is increasingly a global economyxiv.

Demographics and School Capacity

Aberdeenshire is currently home to approximately 49,000 children under the age of 16xv. This equates to 18.6% of the total population – the 5th highest rate in Scotland. Aberdeenshire’s child population is projected to grow by 6% between 2016 and 2041, resulting in several thousand extra children by the end of the forecast period. This is the 5th highest growth rate in the country.

The effects of the population increase will be felt in a variety of ways, particularly in relation to school rolls which in turn will impact school capacity figures – and possibly the quality of pupils’ classroom-based educational experience. A recent school roll forecast predicted a 7% increase in the total number of pupils in Aberdeenshire by 2022, from a base of around 35,100 pupils. That equates to an extra 2,500 pupils.

The financial implications could be significant. Latest data shows the cost per secondary school pupil in Aberdeenshire was £7,000, and for primary school pupils it was £5,163. Both

are higher than the national rates - £6,817 and £4,804 respectivelyxvi. The 2022 forecast suggests the projected increase in Aberdeenshire pupil numbers will increase costs by several million pounds.

Aberdeenshire Council has developed a relatively sophisticated and accurate model to respond to school capacity issues.

Officers constantly monitor school rolls against forecast, checking incoming planning applications – particularly for schools where there are already capacity pressures. The NHS provide annual updates in order to plot the location of all children across Aberdeenshire, and officers liaise with planning and developers about the pace of housing completions to ensure education infrastructure is available to meet the need.

Analysing the ELC Expansion

In the coming years the Scottish Government will undertake new data collections and analyses in order to provide a more complete picture of the ELC expansion and include these in future evaluation reports. For example, qualitative research with parents, particularly those living in more disadvantaged communities and those with additional support needs, has been commissioned to take place in 2018.

New questions on ELC will also be included in the Scottish Household Survey from 2018/19 onwards, and a Data Transformation Project is underway to improve the data collected in the annual ELC censusxvii.

Effect of possible ELC wage disparities

Wage disparities are said to exist between the private and public sector in respect of Early Learning and Childcare, with the public sector apt to pay higher wages than private sector enterprisesxviii. In some instances, wage disparities may result in private sector employees transferring to local authority nurseries. It is not inconceivable, therefore, that those with higher qualifications will also gravitate towards the public sector. Inequalities in wages and qualifications, resulting in relatively high staff turnover, could negatively affect the smooth transitions of children.

ELC Supply Capacity

The hours needed to deliver 1,140 hours of ELC for eligible children in Aberdeenshire is estimated at between 7 and 8.3 million depending on uptake. If ELC sought to provide full flexible provision based on 1,500 hours of uptake, where additional hours are paid for by families, then up to 11 million hours are neededxix. While this is within the technical capacity of present local authority and partner providers, underused capacity is not always in settlements where demand is likely to be highest. The service estimates that the 1140 expansion will generate 30% displacement from current provision. Creating additional capacity in existing sites can be offset against this figure. However, additional provision will be required.

Initial modelling suggests that additional capacity will be needed in nine school catchment areas – Banff, Fraserburgh, Peterhead, Huntly, Newmachar, Laurencekirk, Portlethen, Stonehaven and Westhill. A further four catchments are likely to come under pressure if uptake rates are high – Aboyne, Alford, Ellon, Meldrum. These areas will require varying degrees of capital investment. In addition most other settings will need a degree of refurbishment or adaptationxx.

As trial sites progress these models will continue to be refined. Trial sites will include refurbishment sites, new build development and modular construction additions on existing school sites. Detailed work is now required to estimate the capital costs of the likely programme. Initial estimates place the figure between £40 and £45 millionxxi.

Revenue costs will also increase as additional staff, resources, fixed and variable costs are incurred. Present estimates suggest this to be in the order on £9.5 million pounds per annumxxii.

Female employment in the region expected to rise

Female full-time employment is expected to increase across the region between now and 2027, and female part-time employment is projected to decreasexxiii. This will doubtless have positive implications in terms of the workplace and the regional economy but may also result in even greater demand for childcare provision in future years.

Public Sector Financial Outlook

Councils in Scotland received a further real-terms reduction in their funding from the Scottish Government in 2018/19, reflecting the overall trend and direction of travel. In future years, the emphasis will likely continue to be on how to reduce costs whilst maintaining service delivery and managing residents’ expectations.

North Sea Oil Industry & Future Energy Sources

Fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role in the supply of energy in the near to medium term as the majority of energy use is currently provided by oil and gas. However, North Sea Oil & Gas is a diminishing resource. This presents both challenges and opportunities.

Continued support to retain the skills and transition the industry is vital for the North East economy. The engineering skills gained in working in the offshore environment should facilitate marine energy solutions that are both innovative and exploit the extensive energy resources offshore.

The Moray East offshore windfarm is one such example. The 950MW project will generate power at £57.50/MWhr – less than half the price of power generated by offshore windfarms today. It represents a step-change in the delivery of renewable power in terms of cost and scale. The 190-turbine windfarm, with an electricity substation near New Deer, will process enough renewable electricity to power up to 900,000 homesxxiv. It will lessen the dependence on fossil fuels and improve the UK’s security of energy supply as well as driving down costs for consumersxxv.

The development is expected to produce renewable electricity for 30 years and will create nearly 2,000 jobs in the process. Construction is expected to begin next year (2019).

However, this project notwithstanding, higher grid access costs associated with distance-to- electricity markets may undermine efficient conventional power generation and related potential CCS development. It could also inhibit the development of future technologies to exploit the extensive offshore energy resource.

Fairer Scotland Duty

The Fairer Scotland Duty Part 1 of the Equality Act 2010 comes into force in Scotland from April 2018. It places a legal responsibility on public bodies in Scotland to actively consider (pay ‘due regard’ to) how they can reduce inequalities of outcome caused by socio-economic

disadvantage, when making strategic decisions. The IJB and Aberdeenshire Council are covered by the Duty.

The new Duty should enable Aberdeenshire to do things differently and to put tackling inequality genuinely at the heart of key decision making as it supports delivery of the AHSCP strategic plan.

The diagram on the next page aims to succinctly present the major strengths/opportunities & risks/threats that will help/hinder the Council in achieving its vision of being the best council, from mountain to sea.

Community Empowerment

Councils are now required to fulfil the expectations of the Community Empowerment Act (Scotland) 2015. This seeks to ensure communities are actively involved in deciding how public services are planned and provided.

In addition to the Act, the Scottish Government and COSLA announced that by 2022 communities would decide how at least 1% of local government budgets will be spentxxvi. In Aberdeenshire, this could be upwards of £5.5 million.

Councils are already adopting a range of approaches. For example, East Renfrewshire Council has set aside a £600,000 repair fund for residential roads. Community participants ranked their top two preferences for which roads should be repaired firstxxvii.

Risks and Opportunities

Some of the issues raised above are presented diagrammatically as risk and opportunities on the next page.

Risks are in the upper portion of the diagram, opportunities in the lower portion. The size of the circle denotes the significance of the respective risk/opportunity. The closer the circle is to the centre of the diagram, the more immediate the effect (i.e. inner red/green segment = short-term; outer red/green segment = long-term).

Long-term slowdown Automation of oil & gas sector / skills gap 58

Cost of public ‘Grand Scheme of Things’ borrowing Changing demographics – Diagram of Risks & Opportunities Single-year settlements increase in ageing / younger Wage population: implications for stagnation Relatively high social care & school capacity / transport costs / poor nursery provision Diminishing financial public transport resources / budget Digital accessibility Deprivation / constraints infrastructure / in-work poverty high cost of connections Disjointed strategic approach Climate Change Teacher recruitment / Plethora of Negative national portrayals retention plans & of general pupil attainment Priorities & Outcome strategies Lack of appropriate RISKS / affordable housing THREATS Cost of living / Early Learning & doing business Childcare (ELC) Local Governance provision review Brexit The best Short Term Medium Term Long Term Education council, from reforms mountain to Tourism, Food & Drink Flexible working Strong sea arrangements Life sciences private High business survival sector rate Centres of Excellence STRENGTHS OPPORTUNITIES Wherewithal of residents – highly City Region Deal & ONE skilled / economically active / Office relatively affluent / community- rationalisation Connection to orientated / tolerant / peaceable Fiscal Mix of traditional & international markets digital service delivery Low crime rate responsibility / Enterprise & governance Skills review Infrastructure Excellent quality of life arrangements improvements – Strong ethos digital & of transport KEY partnership ONE working Aberdeenshire Applied knowledge RED denotes a RISK re: engineering / renewable energy GREEN denotes an OPPORTUNITY Healthy life Regional & decommissioning expectancy collaboration Size of dot denotes significance of risk / opportunity Integration of health & social care

Sources 1 Office for National Statistics, 2018 2 UKCS Workforce Dynamics 2018-2035 Shaping the Skills of tomorrow, OPITO in partnership with RGU Oil & Gas Institute, May 2018 3 A future that works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017 4 http://investaberdeen.co.uk/success-stories/latest-news/autonomous-offshore-robot-a-world-first 5 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-must-take-action-now-to-secure-our-connected-future-so-we-are-ready-for- 5g-and-essential-services-are-genuinely-available-where-they-are-n 6 Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 7 https://www.gov.scot/news/rates-relief-puts-scotland-in-fibre-fast-lane/ 8 Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 9 Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 10 Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 11 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables 12 Local Government Benchmarking Framework (LGBF) 2016/17, retrieved via http://www.improvementservice.org.uk/benchmarking/explore-the-data.html 13 The Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare: Evaluation Report 2017, Scottish Government, 2017 14 Jane Mair, National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA), Aberdeenshire, response to the Scottish Government’s consultation: A Blueprint for 2020: The Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare in Scotland, retrieved via https://consult.gov.scot/creating- positive-futures/expansion-of-early-learning-and- childcare/consultation/view_respondent?show_all_questions=0&sort=submitted&order=ascending&_q__text=Aberdeenshire&u uId=16108792 15 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 16 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 17 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 18 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 19 Aberdeen City and Shire: Employment Demand 2017-2027, Skills Development Scotland, 2017 20 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/north-east/1449306/camouflaged-substation-planned-for-offshore-windfarm/ 21 http://www.morayoffshore.com/moray-east/the-project/ 22 Local government in Scotland: Challenges and performance 2018, Audit Scotland, April 2018 23 Local government in Scotland: Challenges and performance 2018, Audit Scotland, April 2018 i http://publications.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/dataset/faddec8b-f03e-45a2-9e6b-c7a8060ccd3f/resource/ed3b90d6-5bd1-4b4f-abf6- 8dc2cc6d64f4/download/banff-and-buchan-mir---final.pdf ii http://publications.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/dataset/faddec8b-f03e-45a2-9e6b-c7a8060ccd3f/resource/ed3b90d6-5bd1-4b4f- abf6-8dc2cc6d64f4/download/banff-and-buchan-mir---final.pdf 117 iii National Records for Scotland (https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk) iv http://publications.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/dataset/3d71d7d9-57ba-481c-a53a-fe101ed162ab/resource/268c7249-5cd4-4044- aa4c-324d88771646/download/locality-plan-north-aberdeenshire-web.pdf v Office for National Statistics, 2018 vi UKCS Workforce Dynamics 2018-2035 Shaping the Skills of tomorrow, OPITO in partnership with RGU Oil & Gas Institute, May 2018 vii A future that works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2017 viii http://investaberdeen.co.uk/success-stories/latest-news/autonomous-offshore-robot-a-world-first ix https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-must-take-action-now-to-secure-our-connected-future-so-we-are-ready-for- 5g-and-essential-services-are-genuinely-available-where-they-are-n x Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 xi https://www.gov.scot/news/rates-relief-puts-scotland-in-fibre-fast-lane/ xii Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 xiii Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 xiv Report to Infrastructure Services Committee, City Region Deal – Digital Infrastructure, Aberdeenshire Council, 25 January 2018 xv https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables xvi Local Government Benchmarking Framework (LGBF) 2016/17, retrieved via http://www.improvementservice.org.uk/benchmarking/explore-the-data.html xvii The Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare: Evaluation Report 2017, Scottish Government, 2017 xviii Jane Mair, National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA), Aberdeenshire, response to the Scottish Government’s consultation: A Blueprint for 2020: The Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare in Scotland, retrieved via https://consult.gov.scot/creating-positive-futures/expansion-of-early-learning-and- childcare/consultation/view_respondent?show_all_questions=0&sort=submitted&order=ascending&_q__text=Aberdeenshire&u uId=16108792 xix 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017

xx 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 xxi 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 xxii 1140 Hours ELC Service Delivery Plan, Aberdeenshire Council, 2017 xxiii Aberdeen City and Shire: Employment Demand 2017-2027, Skills Development Scotland, 2017 xxiv https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/north-east/1449306/camouflaged-substation-planned-for-offshore-windfarm/ xxv http://www.morayoffshore.com/moray-east/the-project/ xxvi Local government in Scotland: Challenges and performance 2018, Audit Scotland, April 2018 xxvii Local government in Scotland: Challenges and performance 2018, Audit Scotland, April 2018