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Government Foresight Anticipatory Governance stiftung neue verantwortung Impulse 12/13 May 2013 Government Foresight Anticipatory Governance: Making Governments Fit for the 21st Century Interview with | Prof. Leon S. Fuerth: Founder and Director of the Project on Forward Engagement, Research Pro- fessor of International Affairs at the George Washington University’s Institute for Global and In- ternational Studies, former National Security Advisor to Vice President Al Gore 1. snv: What does Forward Engagement debate and response by combining systems mean to you and what is the rationale be- for generating foresight and policy. hind this project? 2. snv: In your concept of Anticipatory Gov- Leon S. Fuerth: Forward Engagement is a ernance you state that traditional U.S. gov- term that I created, based on Forward De- ernment structures are not built for the na- ployment – the basic arrangement of NATO ture of 21st century challenges. What is so forces along the inter-German border during fundamentally different about these chal- the Cold War. The concept of Forward De- lenges? ployment embraced the idea of coming to grips with a military threat at the earliest Leon S. Fuerth: In the past we conceived of possible moment, by creating the ability to major challenges, and of government re- respond to an attack fast and coher- sponse to them, as linear. Issues and poli- ently. Forward Engagement recognized the cies could be broken down into sequential need to deal with a different kind of chal- events and sequential steps. Actions were lenge to our values; the onset of very conse- expected to produce proportionate re- quential, complex, and fast moving issues sponses. Government structures could be with the potential of outrunning the adaptive "vertical”, based on organizing systems capacity of democratic societies. The core of around central missions that were the exclu- Forward Engagement was to gain time for sive mandates of government departments. We now see problems as complex systems. ! Government Foresight ! Relationships are not linear or sequential. In such, and then introduced systematically complex systems a change to any one ele- into the analysis of policy options. Keep in ment produces changes in the relationship mind, also, that individuals (and organiza- among all elements. Consequences are often tions) that specialize in foresight are often surprising, discontinuous from the patterns quite different in "culture" than organiza- of the past, and far out of proportion to "in- tions that specialize in the development of puts." No single agency of government is ca- policy. Methods must be developed to pro- pable of responding by itself to such chal- mote more intensive cross-engagement. lenges, since they cut across formal inter- By network, I mean a specific system for agency boundaries. I used to think that the communication and action designed to re- nature of problems had changed. I now feel duce response time by compressing middle that problems have always been complex by layers, using methods that empower the lev- nature, and it is our awareness of the pres- els of government closest to the "field" to ence of complexity that has changed. take action, by policies that reflect the stra- tegic intent of leaders, and which retain for 3. snv: As a solution to address such chal- them the means to stand politically respon- lenges, you suggest three basic sets of sible for the results of actions they are guid- changes: integrating foresight and policy, ing. networking governance, and using feedback By feedback, I mean systems that permit for applied learning. Could you briefly de- tracking the consequences of actions taken scribe the nature and importance of these to implement policies, and reporting those three pillars? results to policy makers in time to permit timely adjustments, where the facts indicate Leon S. Fuerth: You are correct in saying that a need. I am recommending changes to promote foresight/policy integration; networked 4. snv: In times of financial austerity, few planning and operations, and feedback. countries have additional resources for fun- However, the term "pillars" needs comment. damental government reform. Does your This term carries a sense of rigid structure concept involve the creation of new struc- that actually runs contrary to my thinking. tures and processes, and how costly will that These three sets of proposals represent sys- be? tems, which are visualized as individually flexible and dynamic. Moreover, I see them Leon S. Fuerth: It involves the use of existing as elements in a system of systems (what is systems and the existing set of persons: not otherwise referred to by some writers as the creation of new systems and the expan- "whole of governance"). sion of the government's payroll. I began this work not as a theorist, but on the basis Foresight and policy do not automatically of three decades of practical experience in come together in government. Foresight, as I government: State Department; Congres- use the term, means a disciplined effort to sional staff; and White House. Every pro- explore alternative possible futures, includ- posal in the ultimate report, was the product ing not just in the short term, but especially of intensive discussion within a group of 40 at longer range. Foresight is a specific form senior experts and (former) government offi- of information that needs to be cultivated as cials. Their names appear in the final report, Impulse 12/2013 2 ! ! Government Foresight ! as "Contributors." Precepts for their work question. Yes – inter-agency rivalries are a were: recommendations would require no factor. Processes for applying foresight to new law; no new spending authority; and no policy need to be buffered. new bureaucracies. This work, in turn, was reviewed and then endorsed by an approxi- 7. snv: Your suggestions include foresight mately equal number of very senior former training for civil servants. What are the most officials, whose names are also mentioned in important skills civil servants should pos- the report. sess to successfully engage in anticipatory governance, and which contents need to be 5. snv: “Anticipatory governance” includes taught? the idea of using systematic foresight for governments to get ahead of events. How Leon S. Fuerth: My experience teaching can you set incentives for civil servants to graduate students about Forward Engage- prioritize the really important long-term ment (since 2001) suggests that very good challenges – instead of less important, but training can take place in a course of ap- urgent tasks? proximately three months duration. Sample course schedules are available at the For- Leon S. Fuerth: The most important require- ward Engagement website: ment is a clear and sustained "demand" sig- http://www.forwardengagement.org. nal from leadership, expressing an intent to Note also that I have used an accelerated apply foresight to policy. Simply issuing a version of this course that required students directive does not do the job. The next re- to determine Future Contingencies of Inter- quirement is to establish venues where fore- est (FCIs) and develop policy responses (see sight and policy can be brought together in the website for a list of FCIs identified by an organized way. In these venues, experi- students). The point is that thinking long- mental thinking must be encouraged, and term about societal change, and about com- participants should not have to feel bound to plex phenomena can be taught to self- orthodox policy views that are deeply estab- selected groups of people (who come to the lished elsewhere in their organizations. For experience with strong motivation, even the longer term, training must be offered and though lacking experience). become a path for advancement for civil ser- vants who become engaged in this process. 8. snv: Your report was published in 2012, Although the goal is to build this capability shortly after the re-election of President into governance, these processes need to be Obama. How did policy-makers receive your opened to ideas from the outside, non- proposals and what are the prospects for government world. their implementation? 6. snv: Could rivalries between different Leon S. Fuerth: The Obama administration agencies impede a networked approach to has not formally adopted these proposals. governance? How could these rivalries be On the other hand, I have found that the overcome? concepts are widely understood, and that there are efforts to apply such ideas ongoing Leon S. Fuerth: I think my answer to ques- at the White House level, and (more or less tion five is also a fairly good answer to this spontaneously) at various points in the ex- Impulse 12/2013 3 ! ! Government Foresight ! ecutive branch. What is most needed is a page 75 of the Final Report on Anticipatory demand signal from the President. Governance). The most advanced program has been underway for 9 years in Singapore, 9. snv: Your proposals are tailor-made to where it is known as the program for "Risk enhance anticipatory governance in the US. Assessment and Horizon Scanning." In other A number of other countries, including Ger- words, there is a body of experience where many, are also thinking about enhancing the same basic idea is being applied in ways Government Foresight. What are elements that reflect the special circumstances of in- that you deem relevant and suitable for dividual governments and countries. other large federal governments as well? Leon S. Fuerth: Some governments are not just contemplating, but acting to enhance the role of foresight in policy-making (see Questions were asked by Julian Fricke and Dr. Claudia Huber. Julian Fricke works for the Policy Planning Staff of the Federal Foreign Office. Dr. Claudia Huber is Senior Researcher and Project Officer at the Alfred Herrhausen Society, the International Forum of Deutsche Bank. Both are As- sociates in the snv’s Government Foresight project.
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