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First 4 Shots Belgium Let’s Connect Instagram coshannessy Twitter @BrainGameTennis Facebook BrainGameTennis Website www.braingametennis.com E-Mail [email protected] The First 4 Shots Building Blocks Matches Sets Games Points No. 1 in the World YEAR PLAYER W/L MATCH WIN % 2018 Novak Djokovic 49-11 82% 2017 Rafael Nadal 67-11 86% 2016 Andy Murray 78-9 90% 2015 Novak Djokovic 82-6 93% 2014 Novak Djokovic 61-8 88% 2013 Rafael Nadal 75-7 92% 2012 Novak Djokovic 75-12 86% 2011 Novak Djokovic 70-6 92% 2010 Rafael Nadal 71-10 88% - TOTAL / AVERAGE 628 - 80 89% Building Blocks Matches = 89% Points = ? No. 1 Player: Points Won 55% YEAR PLAYER POINTS WON % 2018 N. Djokovic 54% 2017 R. Nadal 56% 2016 A. Murray 55% 2015 N. Djokovic 56% 2014 N. Djokovic 55% 2013 R. Nadal 55% 2012 N. Djokovic 55% 2011 N. Djokovic 56% 2010 R. Nadal 55% 2009 R. Federer 54% 2001 L. Hewitt 53% 2000 G. Kuerten 53% 1996 P. Sampras 53% 1991 S. Edberg 53% 2018: Top 50 Percentage Points Won Top 50: True / False More than 20% of the Top 50 in 2018 lost more points than they won? Top 50: True / False True 11/50 (22%) lost more points than they won in 2018 Top 50: 2018 Season RANKING POINTS WON POINTS PLAYED WIN % 1-10 54,424 103,105 52.79% 11-20 46,260 90,239 51.26% 21-30 42,648 83,797 50.89% 31-40 37,101 73,685 50.35% 41-50 36,832 74,261 49.60% TOTAL/AVERAGE 217,265 425,087 51.11% Average / Points Won Top 10 = 53% Top 50 = 51% 2016 Season RANKING PLAYER % POINTS WON PRIZEMONEY 1 Andy Murray 55% $13,327,822 2 Novak Djokovic 55% $12,630,465 5 Kei Nishikori 53% $4,324,963 10 Tomas Berdych 52% $2,318,756 20 Ivo Karlovic 50% $1,267,348 50 Florian Mayer 49% $695,103 Karlovic = No. 20 Prizemoney = $1,267,348 Matches Won 32-24 (57%) Points Won 4612 Points Lost 4611 End of the Point… winners % errors % End of the Point… winners 30% errors 70% 2015 Australian Open OUTCOME MEN WOMEN Errors 70% 73% Winners 30% 27% 2015: 4 Slams END OF POINT MEN WOMEN Forced Errors 41% 37% Unforced Errors 27% 34% Winners 32% 29% 2015: 4 Slams END OF POINT MEN WOMEN Aggressive Play 73% 66% Consistent Play 27% 34% Consistency old mantra don’t miss Consistency new mantra make them miss Consistency old mantra make 20 balls / do it 4 times Consistency new mantra make 4 balls / do it 20 times Consistency is consistency overrated? 2015 = Rally Length 0-4 shots first strike 5-8 shots patterns of play 9+ shots extended rallies The First 4 Shots serve return serve +1 return +1 2015 Australian Open total points 0-4 shots % 5-8 shots % 9+ shots % 2015 Australian Open total points 0-4 shots 70% 5-8 shots 20% 9+ shots 10% 2017 Australian Open RALLY LENGTH MEN WOMEN 0-4 Shots 68% 67% 5-8 Shots 21% 23% 9+ Shots 11% 10% Roger Federer 2017 / 2018 Australian Open RALLY 2017 2018 0-4 Shots 72% 73% 5-8 Shots 21% 19% 9+ Shots 7% 8% Novak Djokovic 2018 US Open RALLY LENGTH POINTS % 0-4 Shots 755 55% 5-8 Shots 365 26% 9+ Shots 263 19% Djokovic: 2018 US Open RALLY WON LOST +/- 0-4 Shots 433 326 107 5-8 Shots 203 150 53 9+ Shots 131 133 -2 Matteo Berretini Match Intelligence Report 13 Matches / Summer 2019 Novak Djokovic Match Intelligence Report Wimbledon / 7 Matches Rally Length Which rally length is the most important to win? 0-4 shots 5-8 shots 9+ shots 5 Grand Slams which rally length has the greatest correlation to winning a match? 5 Grand Slams: Men Rally Length 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots Win % 91% 66% 55% 2016 RALLY WIMBLEDON AUSTRALIA US OPEN FRENCH 0-4 shots 94% 92% 84% 95% 5-8 shots 71% 67% 60% 68% 9+ shots 64% 52% 50% 59% 2015/16 US Opens: Men Match Winner 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots Won Match & 86% 61% 50% 2015 US Open Women Won Match & Won 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots Win % 81% 61% 43% The First 4 Shots how much does the surface matter? hard / clay / grass The First 4 Shots Australian = 70% Roland Garros = ? The First 4 Shots Australia = 70% Wimbledon = ? 0-4 Shots /2016 Slams Wimbledon 71% Australian Open 70% US Open 68% Roland Garros 67% Clay vs. Hard Roland Garros vs. US Open 2016 / 2017 / 2018 2015 Australian Open Men: total points 0-4 shots % 5-8 shots % 9+ shots % 2015 Australian Open Men: total points 0-4 shots 70% 5-8 shots 20% 9+ shots 10% 2015 Australian Open RALLY LENGTH MEN WOMEN 0-4 Shots 70% 66% 5-8 Shots 20% 23% 9+ Shots 10% 11% Clay vs. Hard Roland Garros vs. US Open 2016 MEN 2016 - RG vs. US Open RALLY LENGTH ROLAND GARROS US OPEN 0-4 Shots 66.9% 68.0% 5-8 Shots 21.2% 21.3% 9+ Shots 11.9% 10.7% MEN 2017 - RG vs. US Open RALLY LENGTH ROLAND GARROS US OPEN 0-4 Shots 70.7% 67.8% 5-8 Shots 19.4% 21.2% 9+ Shots 10.0% 11.0% MEN 2018 - RG vs. US Open RALLY LENGTH ROLAND GARROS US OPEN 0-4 Shots 68.2% 68.2% 5-8 Shots 21.5% 21.1% 9+ Shots 10.3% 10.7% MEN 2016/17/18 - RG vs. US Open RALLY LENGTH ROLAND GARROS US OPEN 0-4 Shots 68.6% 68.0% 5-8 Shots 20.7% 21.2% 9+ Shots 10.7% 10.8% MEN: Clay vs. Hard • Points were shorter on clay • Points were longer on hard MEN: Clay vs. Hard Clay Hard patience first strike grinding attacking Women 2016/17/18 - RG vs. US Open RALLY LENGTH ROLAND GARROS US OPEN 0-4 Shots 64.7% 63.8% 5-8 Shots 23.5% 24.4% 9+ Shots 11.8% 11.8% WOMEN: Clay vs. Hard • Points were shorter on clay • Long rallies are the same Win Prediction Index 2017 Roland Garros Which strategies matter most to winning matches on clay? Win Prediction Index 17 strategies serving returning rallying approaching rally length final shot (winners/unforced errors/forced error) Win Prediction Index More Aces Less Forced E. 0-4 Shots Less Double Faults Less Unforced E. 5-8 Shots Faster 1st Serve Baseline Points Won 9+ Shots 1st Serve Percentage More Winners 1st Serve Pts Won Net Points Won 2nd Serve Pts Won Higher % Break 1st Return Pts Won Points Won 2nd Return Pts Won Win Prediction Index Stats don’t start at zero. They start at 50% vs 50% MEN: Win Prediction Index # MATCH METRIC WIN CORRELATION 11 5-8 Shots 65.2% 12 More Winners 63.9% 13 Net Points Won 61.9% 14 Aces 59.4% 15 Less Double Faults 56.1% 16 First Serve Percentage 55.7% 17 Average 1st Serve Speed 50.8% MEN: Win Prediction Index # MATCH METRIC WIN CORRELATION T6 2nd Serve Return Points Won 76.6% T6 2nd Serve Points Won 76.6% 8 Higher % Break Pts Won 70.9% 9 Less Unforced Errors 67.2% 10 9+ Shots 65.7% MEN: Win Prediction Index # MATCH METRIC WIN CORRELATION 1 0-4 Shots 89.0% T2 1st Serve Return Points Won 85.2% T2 1st Serve Points Won 85.2% 4 Baseline Points Won 82.4% 5 Less Forced Errors 77.9% WOMEN: Win Prediction Index # MATCH METRIC WIN CORRELATION 1 0-4 Shots 84.5% 2 Baseline Points Won 83.9% T3 1st Serve Points Won 82.8% T3 1st Serve Return Points Won 82.8% T5 2nd Serve Return Points Won 76.4% T5 2nd Serve Points Won 76.4% Win Prediction Index 9+ Shot Rallies (grinding / patience / suffering) Men = 10th / 17 Women = 14th / 17 2016 Australian Open match winners where do their points come from? 2016 Australian Open match winners won 10,500 pts match losers won 8,740 pts winning gap 1760 pts 2016 Australian Open match winners won 10,500 pts match losers won 8,740 pts winning gap 1760 pts match winners = 55% match losers = 45% 0-4 Shots match winner 50 points match loser 40 points gap 10 points 2016 Australian Open Match Winner 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots 1760 points 1347 305 108 % 77% 17% 6% Practice Court each rally length has a different landscape 9+ Shots consumes practice court comfort zone 5-8 Shots patterns of play tennis IQ 0-4 Shots least practiced least proficient least understood 2015 Australian Open Mode “the most common rally length” 2015 Australian Open 1 2015 Australian Open 1 3 2 5 4 6 yellow = serving / white = returning # SHOTS % 1 1 shot 29.5% 2 3 shots 15.4% 3 2 shots 9.5% 4 5 shots 8.6% 5 4 shots 7.5% 6 6 shots 5.3% 7 7 shots 4.7% 8 8 shots 3.1% 9 0 (double fault) 2.7% 10 9 shots 2.3% # SHOTS % 11 10 shots 1.9% 12 11 shots 1.9% 13 12 shots 1.1% 14 13 shots 0.9% 15 14 shots 0.8% 16 15 shots 0.7% 17 16 shots 0.6% 18 17 shots 0.5% 19 18 shots 0.1% 20 19 shots 0.3% Page 1 vs 2 Page 1 = 89% Page 2 = 11% Novak - 2018 US Open # SHOTS % 1 1 shot 21.0% 2 3 shots 14.5% 3 5 shots 9.8% 4 2 shots 9.9% 5 4 shots 7.8% - Total 63.0% 2019 Tennis Congress • Adult Rally Length 2019 Tennis Congress 14 sets 622 points RALLY LENGTH POINTS % 1 162 26% 2 104 17% 3 77 12% 0 72 12% 5 52 8% 4 51 8% 6 40 6% 7 23 4% 8 13 2% 9 7 1% 10 7 1% 11 6 1% 15 3 0% 12 2 0% 14 2 0% 13 1 0% TOTAL 622 100% Under 12 what is the most dominant rally length? 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots Junior Match Data 700,000+ points National Level USA & Canada 0-4 Shots AGE/LEVEL MEN WOMEN 12’s 55% 57% 14’s 59% 59% 16’s 56% 58% 18’s 61% 61% College 62% 61% Pro 70% 66% Under 12 Boy’s 12s 1st 4 Shots Serve Return Winner Serve +1 Error Return +1 Aces Return winners Return +1 winners Return 4% errors Serve +1 7% 1% winners 25% 8% Double 12% faults 23% 18% Serve +1 Return +1 errors errors RESULT W / E 1 Return Error 2 Serve +1 Error 3 Return +1 Error 4 Double Fault Error 5 Serve +1 Winner 6 Return +1 Winner 7 Return Winner 8 Serve Winner BOYS 12 14 16 18 College Return Errors 25% 29% 27% 31% 32% Serve +1 errors 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% Return +1 errors 18% 17% 18% 17% 17% Double faults 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% Serve +1 winners 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% Return +1 winners 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% Return winners 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% Aces 1% 3% 6% 6% 8% W/E 1st 4 Shots Result Errors Winners B12s 78% 22% Murray v Nishikori 80% 20% B14s 80% 20% G14s 80% 20% Orange Bowl B12s 80% 20% G12s 82% 18% Orange Bowl B14s 82% 18% Orange Bowl G12s 83% 17% Orange Bowl G14s 84% 16% 1ST 4 Shots GIRLS 12s Return Winners Aces Return +1 winners Return 4% errors Serve +1 5% 3% winners 28% 8% Double 14% faults 21% 17% Serve +1 Return +1 errors errors STRATEGY BOYS 12s GIRLS 12s Return errors 25% 28% Serve +1 errors 23% 23% Return +1 errors 19% 17% Double faults 12% 14% Serve +1 winners 8% 6% Return +1 winners 7% 6% Return winners 6% 5% Aces 1% 1% 1st Serve Percentage AGE BOYS GIRLS 12’s 65% 63% 14’s 62% 60% 16’s 61% 63% 18’s 59% 60% 1st Serve Points Won AGE BOYS GIRLS 12’s 54% 54% 14’s 58% 55% 16’s 60% 56% 18’s 64% 59% 2nd Serve Points Won AGE BOYS GIRLS 12’s 43% 41% 14’s 43% 41% 16’s 46% 42% 18’s 47% 42% Total Serve Points Won AGE BOYS GIRLS 12’s 50% 49% 14’s 52% 49% 16’s 55% 51% 18’s 57% 53% 2017 Australian Open Double Faults 2017 Australian Open One out of every _____ 2nd serves is a double fault.
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