UGANDA ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CO. LTD.
GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN 20144- 2030
FOREWORD
The Grid Development Plan (GDevP) is a strategic document in UETCL’s overall planning, which is in line with the company’s Corporate Business Plan (CBP).
The GDevP is updated annually. It details the future grid requirements in terms of projects and investment costs to meet the national load growth, generation developments and regional interconnection requirements. The 2014 edition of the Grid Development Plan provides a 17 year outlook of the Uganda transmission system.
The GDevP presents the latest demand forecast update, generation expansion plan, Demand – Supply Balance for the current and subsequent years, power system analysis results, financial projections, the Grid Investment Plan and Implementation Schedule.
The 2014 edition presents an outlook of four scenarios showing their planned implementation strategy and recommendations. The base case scenario looks at the normal business as usual case. The National Development Plan (NDP 2010-2015) scenario that aims at transforming Uganda from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country with set targets to be implemented within 5years. The Electricity For All scenario in which 100% of the Uganda population has access to Electricity by 2035 as per energy policy directive. The Uganda’s VISION 2040 scenario that aims at transforming Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”.
The 2014 GDP edition is our planning reference guide for the year 2015.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD ...... 2 LIST OF TABLES ...... 6 LIST OF FIGURES ...... 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...... 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 10 1 BACKGROUND ...... 11 2 THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROCESS ...... 12
2.1 OBJECTIVE FOR THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN ...... 12 2.2 METHODOLOGY ...... 12 3 PLANNING CRITERIA ...... 14
3.1 TRANSMISSION PLANNING CRITERIA ...... 14 3.1.1 SYSTEM VOLTAGE ...... 14 3.1.2 SYNCHRONISM ...... 15 3.1.3 EQUIPMENT LOADING ...... 15 3.1.4 REACTIVE POWER COMPENSATION ...... 15 3.1.5 VOLTAGE SELECTION ...... 16 3.1.6 RELIABILITY CRITERIA ...... 16 3.1.7 SPINNING RESERVE ...... 16 3.1.8 GENERATION ...... 16 3.1.9 FAULT CURRENT CRITERIA ...... 16 3.1.10 SYSTEM FREQUENCY ...... 17 3.1.11 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ...... 17 4 BASE CASE SCENARIO ...... 18 4 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS ...... 19
4.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND ‐ SUPPLY PROGNOSIS ...... 19 4.1.2 LOAD FACTOR ...... 19 4.1.3 Gross Domestic Product ...... 19 4.1.4 ELECTRIFICATION RATES ...... 19 4.1.5 POPULATION GROWTH ...... 20 4.1.6 System losses ...... 20 4.1.7 EXPORT POTENTIAL ...... 20 4.2 ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERATION PLAN ...... 21 4.3 PRESENT DEMAND‐ SUPPLY STATUS ...... 22 4.4 DEMAND FORECAST ...... 25 4.5 GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN ...... 25 4.6 FORECASTED GENERATION MIX ...... 28 4.7 DEMAND‐SUPPLY BALANCE FINDINGS ...... 29 4.7.1 Observations and Findings from Demand Supply balance ...... 30 5 POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS ...... 31
5.1 PRESENT POWER SYSTEM ...... 31 5.2 POWER SYSTEM MODELS ...... 31 5.2.1 Model Inputs and Outputs ...... 32 5.2.2 2014 model – PRESENT STATUS ...... 32
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5.2.3 2016 Model ...... 33 5.2.4 2018 Model ...... 35 5.2.5 2020 MODEL ...... 35 5.2.6 2025 Model ...... 36 5.3 SYSTEM ANALYSIS SUMMARY ...... 37 6 GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) ...... 38
6.1 GRID INVESTMENT PLAN SUMMARY ...... 38 6.2 SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS BY THE YEAR 2030 ...... 52 6.3 REGIONAL INTERCONNECTION POWER LINES ...... 54 6.4 PROJECT PRIORITIZATION ...... 54 6.5 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ...... 57 7 THE SMART GRID JOURNEY 2014 ‐ 2030 ...... 58
7.1 WHY SMART GRID FOR UETCL ...... 59 7.2 THE KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR SMART GRID IN UETCL ...... 59 7.3 UETCL SMART GRID FOCUS AREAS ...... 59 7.4 SMART STRATEGY FOR SMART GRID ...... 60 7.5 UETCL SMART GRID MATURITY PLAN ...... 61 7.6 THE SMART GRID PROPOSED FOCUS AREAS AND THE ESTIMATED COSTS (THE FIRST 5 YEARS) ...... 62 7.7 CAPACITY BUILDING ...... 66 7.8 SUMMARY BUDGET ...... 67 7.9 CONCLUSION AND RECEOMMENDATIONS ...... 67 7.9.1conclusion ...... 67 7.9.1 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 67 8 DEMAND‐SUPPLY ANALYSIS 2012 – 2014(BID/PMA MODEL) ...... 68
8.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 68 8.2 INPUTS TO THE BID/PMA MODEL: ...... 68 8.3 MAIN ASSUMPTIONS ...... 69 8.4 BID MODELLING RESULTS ...... 70 9 NDP SCENARIO ...... 76
9.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS ...... 77 9.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS ...... 77 9.1.2 DEMAND AND GENERATION BALANCE ...... 78 9.1.3 EXISTING AND PROPOSED GENERATION RESOURCES ...... 78 9.1.4 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM INVESTMENTS ...... 79 9.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 79 10 ELECTRICITY FOR ALL SCENARIO ...... 80
10.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS ...... 81 10.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS ...... 81 10.1.2 DEMAND FORECAST ...... 81 10.1.3 PROPOSED GENERATION SOURCES ...... 82 10.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 84 11 VISION 2040 ...... 85
11.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS ...... 86 11.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS ...... 86 11.1.2 ASSUMPTIONS ON AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES BY 2040 ...... 86 11.1.3 Vision 2040 Case gdp forecast BY 2040 ...... 86 11.1.4 DEMAND FORECAST VISION 2040 ...... 87
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11.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 88 11 RISK ANALYSIS ...... 89 12 STAKEHOLDERS ...... 91 APPENDICES ...... 92
11.3 A.1 DEMAND ‐ SUPPLY BALANCE AND PROGNOSIS ...... 93 11.4 A.2 GIP IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND SCHEDULE ...... 94 11.5 A.3 UETCL TRANSMISSION LINES ...... 95 11.6 A.4 UETCL SUBSTATION TRANSFORMATION CAPACITY ...... 96 A.5 MAPS ...... 98 A.5.1 UGANDA POWER SYSTEM PRESENT AND FUTURE NETWORK ...... 99 A.5.2 EAST AFRICAN POWER SYSTEM ...... 100 A.5.3 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN SCENARIO (NDP) ...... 101 A.5.4 VISION 2040 ...... 102
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: VOLTAGE LIMITS ...... 14 Table 2: equipment loading ...... 15 Table 3:Switchgear Rated fault current interrupting capacity ...... 17 Table 4:LOAD FACTOR PROJECTION ...... 19 Table 5:GDP PROJECTIONs ...... 19 Table 6:SYSTEM LOSS PROJECTIONS ...... 20 Table 7:EXPORT PROJECTIONS...... 20 Table 8: Existing Generation Plants...... 24 Table 9: EXISTING OFF-GRID PLANTS ...... 24 Table 10: SUMMARY OF LOAD FORECAST 2014-2030 ...... 25 Table 11:Generation Expansion Plan ...... 28 Table 12:The Grid investment plan-BASE CASE ...... 52 Table 13:Summary of financial requirements by 2030 ...... 52 Table 14:TABLE 14: PROJECT PRIORITIZATION ...... 55 Table 15: Transmission line length growth ...... 56 Table 16: ADDITIONAL SUBSTATIONS AND TRANSFORMATION CAPACITY ...... 56 Table 17:Smart strategy for Smart Grid ...... 61 Table 18:SMART GRID ROADMAP ...... 61 Table 19:SMART GRID FOCUS AREAS AND BUDGET ...... 65 Table 20:capacity building budget ...... 66 Table 21:SMART GRID SUMMARY BUDGET ...... 67 Table 22:projected export potential (mw)-NDP CASE ...... 77 Table 23:gdp growth projection-NDP CASE ...... 77 Table 24:existing and proposed enegy sources-NDP CASE ...... 79 Table 25: ELECTRICITY CONSUPTION PER CATEGORY 2025 ...... 82 TABLE 26: GENERATION POTENTIAL ...... 82 TABLE 27: GENERATION EXPANSION AND EVACUATION PLAN ...... 83 Table 28:ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS-VISION 2040 ...... 86 Table 29: ASSUMPTIONS ON AVAILABLE ENERGY RESPURCES BY 2040 ...... 86 Table 30: Vision 2040 Case GDP Forecast (UGX Billion) ...... 86 Table 31: DEMAND FORECAST VISION 2040 ...... 87 Table 32:RISK ANALYSIS ...... 90 Table 33:stakeholders ...... 91
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDevP Process ...... 13 Figure 2: Energy supply and demand dec 2013 - dec 2014 ...... 22 Figure 3: LOAD DURATION CURVE DEC'14 ...... 23 Figure 4: FORECASTED generation mix ...... 29 Figure 5: POwer PROJECTION 2014 – 2030 ...... 29 Figure 6: Energy projection 2014 - 2030 ...... 30 Figure 7:Proposed alternate ring around kampala ...... 34 Figure 8:Short-term prognosis of supply, demand, surplus/deficit power 2014-2020 ...... 37 Figure 9:Short-term prognosis of loss trajectory 2014-2020 ...... 37 Figure 10:UETCL GRID INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 2013-2030 ...... 53 Figure 11:HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS ...... 53 Figure 12:INPUTS TO BID/PMA MODEL ...... 68 Figure 13:LOAD FORCAST ASSUMPTIONS-BID ...... 69 Figure 14:GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS-BID ...... 69 Figure 15:TRANSMISSION ASSUMPTIONS-BID ...... 70 Figure 16:ANNUAL GENERATION RESULTS-BID ...... 70 Figure 17:SUPPLY/DEMAND ON A WEEKLY BASIS-BID ...... 71 Figure 18:HOURLY GENERATION AND DEMAND AND TRADE-BID ...... 71 Figure 19:HOURLY TRADE WITH AND WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS-BID ...... 72 Figure 20: GENERATION FROM HPPS-BID...... 73 Figure 21:RESTRICTED EXPORTS AND IDLE HYDROPOWER (2020)-BID ...... 73 Figure 22:TRANSMISSION LINE UTILIZATION 2030 - BID...... 73 Figure 23:ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO - HIGH CASE –BID ...... 74 Figure 24: DEMAND MET WHILE FULFILING EXPORT COMMITMENTS –BID ...... 74 Figure 25:ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ...... 75 Figure 26: Demand-supply: NDP SCENARIO ...... 78
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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AAAC All Aluminim Alloy Conductor ACSR Aluminium Conductor Steel Reinforced BID Better Investment Decisions CBP Corporate Business Plan CCTV Closed Circuit Television DCST Double Circuit EAC East African Community EAPMP East African Power Master Plan EAPP Eastern Africa Power Pool EPC Engineering Procurement and Construction ERP Enterprise Resource Planning EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ERA Electricity Regulatory Authority GDevP Grid Development Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GIP Grid Investment Plan GIS Geographical Information System GoU Government of Uganda GWh Giga Watt Hour HFO Heavy Fuel Oil HPP Hydro Power Plant HTLS High Temperature Low Sag HVTG High Voltage Transmission Grid Hz Hertz IEC International Electromechanical Commission IP Internet Protocol IPP Independent Power Producer kA Kilo Amperes KCCL Kasese Cobalt Company Limited km Kilo meter KML Kilembe Mines Limited kV Kilo Volt (1kV=1000 Volts) kW Kilo Watt (1kW=1000 Watts) kWh Kilo Watt Hour MDMS Meter Data Management System MEMD Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development MoFPED Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Developement MVA Mega volt Ampere MVAr Mega Volt Ampere- reactive
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MW Mega Watt NBI Nile Basin Initiative NDP National Development Plan NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme NEMA National Environment Management Authority NFA National Forestry Authority OPGW Optical Ground Wire OTDR Optical time Domain Reflectometer PHD Plesiochronous Digital Hierarchy PMA Power Market Analyzer PSA Power Sales Agreement PSS/E Power System Simulation for Engineers RAP Resettlement Action Plan REA Rural Electrification Agency RPT Regional Power Trade SCADA Supervisory, Control, and Data Acquisition ISDB Islamic Development Bank ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment SIA Social Impact Assessment EXIM Export and Import JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency SDH Synchronous Digital Hierarchy SVC Static Var Compensator SWECO SWECO AB of Sweden TCP Transfer Control Protocol UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics KFW German Development Bank WB World Bank FS Feasibility Study UETCL Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited USD United States Dollar UWA Uganda Wildlife Authority VAR Volt Ampere Reactive WA Wheeling Agreements WIS Wayleaves Information System AFD French Development Agency AfDB African Development Bank
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited (UETCL) has a leading role in developing, Operating and maintaining an efficient High Voltage Transmission Grid (HVTG) to meet the national load demand, power evacuation from new generation plants and regional power exchange requirement through regional interconnections within the national and International technical, social-economic and environmental standards.
A key responsibility in this respect is to constantly plan and develop the HVTG. The purpose is to establish a rationale for building a robust network, improve reliability and quality of supply, which will in turn contribute towards the economic development of Uganda.
In line with company objectives, the Grid Development Plan (GDevP) is a strategic document in UETCL’s overall planning process and thus must be communicated to all major stakeholders. The plan, which covers a period of 17 years, identifies and justifies new grid investments. It is reviewed and updated annually to reflect latest information on Government policy and strategies. It is also an input to the company’s financial projections and annual budget.
The GDevP presents results of technical analyses for various investments to meet the national demand and power exchange obligations.
The technical analysis derived from power system studies form a basis for determining technical feasibility of the proposed projects. The results from the technical analysis are used to determine the Grid Investment plan and the associated cost estimates which culminate into financial projections. The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment are carried out before implementation of each individual project as required by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA).
The results from the above analyses indicate high capital investment requirements over the first five years (2014-2018). This is mainly attributed to the many generation plants that are to be commissioned during this period and the corresponding power evacuation transmission lines. In order to absorb the new generation capacity, several grid extensions and reinforcements are to be implemented in the same period.
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1 BACKGROUND
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited (UETCL) has a major role in contributing to the development of an efficient electricity sub sector in Uganda through planning, developing and maintaining an efficient transmission grid to meet the national electric power requirements within the allowable national, regional and international standards.
UETCL owns, operates, develops and maintains the high voltage transmission grid. The grid connects power generation plants to load centers throughout the country as well as interconnection with neighboring countries. UETCL also owns a National Control Center which is important for operating and supervising grid operations and maintenance activities.
Presently, the transmission grid comprises 150km of 220kV (initially operated at 132kV), 1443km of 132kV and 35.2km of 66kV high voltage transmission lines and 17 substations (includes Kabulasoke switching station).
The Grid Development Plan (GDevP) is a planning document that is written in line with UETCL’s strategic Corporate Business Plan. It details present and future transmission grid infrastructure that will support National demand growth, generation requirements and regional power trade obligations.
The GDP is updated annually to review the National Demand forecast, Generation Planning, Demand – Supply Balance for the current and subsequent years, Power evacuation transmission lines, Grid expansion requirements in line with National Development Plan (NDP), Electricity for All 2035,Vision 2040, sustainable energy for all, rural electrification strategy and plan, renewable energy policy among others, Better Investments Decisions (BID) results, Power System Modeling Analysis Results, Recent and future Smart Grid Developments, the 2014-2030 Grid Investment Plan, Financial Implications and Proposed implementation schedule as well as expectations from Stakeholders to provide a harmonized energy sector planning process.
The 2014 edition GDP is UETCL’s planning reference guide for the year 2015.
Planning & Investment Department conducted GDP Annual Internal Stakeholder’s workshop from 15th December 2014 to 18th December 2014. External stakeholder’s GDP workshop took place on 19th December 2014.
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2 THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROCESS
2.1 OBJECTIVE FOR THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN The main objectives of the Grid Development Plan are: • To give an outlook of the future power system of Uganda • To present the High Voltage Transmission Grid’s (HVTG) investment requirements to meet forecasted demand • To detail the new generation development projects over the planning horizon. • Identify power transmission investment requirements to mitigate anticipated system constraints. • To form a basis for the company’s financial projections, multi -year tariff and multi-year budget.
2.2 METHODOLOGY A scenario based approach has been adopted for the 2014 Grid Development Plan Update. Three scenarios have been considered as follows:
• Base Case Scenario The main assumptions for this scenario include: observed historical demand growth trends, Growth projections of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), implementation of loss reduction strategies and the need to address constraints that have created suppressed demand in the past. • NDP Scenario This scenario is designed to implement the National Development Plan (NDP) launched in April 2010. The planning horizon of this scenario is five years from 2010 to 2015. • Sustainable energy for all by 2030 SE4II Scenario, this is as per the following SE4II objectives: o To achieve universal access to modern energy services o Double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency o Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix • Vision 2040 This scenario is designed to implement the Vision 2040 with the vision “A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 12 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
2.2.1 THE GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROCESS The process used for formulating the GDevP is illustrated in Figure 1 below.
External Factors Assumptions System Analysis o Government policy Macro economic Modell update Out put Simulations 2014 and strategy parameters Power and Energy Demand – 2016, 2018, 2020, o Other stakeholders Historical 2025, 22030 Supply balance Regional o observations Results analysis System requirements interconnecti ons Planning objectives Planned grid investments
Prioritisation of plans Financial requirements and
implications
Internal factors Forecast Company objectives Load forecast Planning criteria Generation planning Observed system constraints
FIGURE 1: GDevP PROCESS
From Figuure 1, it can be viewed that the inputs to the GDevP process include both external and internal factors, which are then used in the analyses (forecast and power system analysis) to yield results which are further analyzed to come-up with the outputs.
The load forecast conducted for the Base, NDP, SE4II and VVision 2040 sscenarios for the period 2014 - 2030 was based on the respective assumptions for eacch scenario as detailed in sections below respectively. Power system constraints as observed in the day to day operation of the network were considered in the power system analysis. These include quality of supply, equipment loading, system reliability and availabilityt .
Generation expansion planning was based on the demand-supply balance analysis for each respective scenario in which the timing of additional required generation capacities identified is determined.
Power sysstem studies and analysis were carried out on six sysstem models. The results formed the basis for determiningn the Grid Investment Plan that details the technically feasible projects with their respective cost estimates and timing. Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limitted 13 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
3 PLANNING CRITERIA
3.1 TRANSMISSION PLANNING CRITERIA The transmission planning criteria provides a framework for system design in order to operate the power grid in a manner that satisfies the grid code requirements and the regional interconnection requirements as well. This section describes the criteria utilized when analyzing Uganda’s transmission system and serves as a guide for determining future transmission infrastructure investments.
The Planning criteria are utilized to ensure the following objectives are met: • Provide a transmission system that can adequately serve the system loads. • Provide a robust transmission system that can withstand reasonable system disturbances on the bulk power system. • Provide a transmission system that contributes to overall bulk system integrity and supports effective competition in a power pool. • Provide a transmission system whose revenue requirements, capital and operating costs are minimized while being consistent with the above goals.
3.1.1 SYSTEM VOLTAGE
Under steady state and post contingency conditions, all system voltages from 66kV and above (i.e. 132kV, 220kV, and 400kV) should be within the limits set in Table 1: VOLTAGE LIMITS
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Normal condition Contingency condition Location Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Value/ % Value/ % Value/ % Value/ %
400 kV Transmission Substation Bus 380 (95%) 420 (105%) 360 (90%) 440 (110%) Voltage 220 kV Transmission Substation Bus 209 (95%) 231 (105%) 198 (90%) 242 (110%) Voltage 132 kV Transmission Substation Bus 125.4 (95%) 138.6 118.8 (90%) 145 (110%) Voltage (105%) 66 kV Transmission Substation Bus Voltage 62.7 (95%) 69.3 59.73 (90%) 72.6 (110%) (105%) TABLE 1: VOLTAGE LIMITS Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 14 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
The above limits may be exceeded only during outages of 400kV lines and in such cases it is necessary to supply dynamic VAR resources at sensitive nodes. Such nodes should be identified by conducting power system analyses. Under normal operations when all the system elements are healthy and tap positions of the power transformers at the sending end at the nominal tap, the system voltages at various levels at the tail end of the lines shall be as close to the nominal voltage as possible. The tap positions may be increased or decreased at peak load or off load conditions as need arises. The system should withstand outage of any two circuits of 220kV lines or any one circuit of 400 kV line with voltage and frequency levels remaining within prescribed limits.
3.1.2 SYNCHRONISM The system shall remain in synchronism even in case of a single line to ground fault or three phase fault, assuming successful clearance of fault by the protective devices. Adequate margin shall be available, in terms of voltage and steady state oscillating stability. The voltage angles between consecutive sub-stations should be in the region of 30 degrees.
3.1.3 EQUIPMENT LOADING Under normal conditions all transmission equipment can be loaded up to 100% of the continuous rating. Under contingency conditions, this will be allowed to increase to 120%. Loading Per Unit Normal: 1.0 Allowable overload 1.2 Flag for upgrade >1.2 TABLE 2: EQUIPMENT LOADING
3.1.4 REACTIVE POWER COMPENSATION Reactive resources should be planned and designed such that adequate reactive power reserves are available in the form of dynamic reserves at synchronous generators and static VAR compensators in anticipation of system disturbances. Reactive loads should be served by fixed and mechanically switched shunt compensation to the extent practical. Reactive power dynamic reserves at generators and SVC should help minimize the impact of system disturbances and unusual operating conditions.
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3.1.5 VOLTAGE SELECTION Voltage selection shall consider cases where existing voltages are found inadequate. For new power transmission lines, consideration to cater for all power plants to be developed and power to be evacuated from that particular region shall be taken into account. This aims at optimizing transmission capacity, optimizing way-leaves, reducing technical losses and operation & maintenance costs.
3.1.6 RELIABILITY CRITERIA
The future transmission system is planned to operate satisfactorily under the condition of a single element contingency, N-1. Modifications and enhancements shall be made to the system to improve reliability when needed. Criteria such as contingency, load growth, load density was used in the analysis of reliability.
3.1.7 SPINNING RESERVE
There should be enough generation spinning reserve in the system to mitigate loss of the largest unit under operation. The spinning reserve shall be 10% of the total generation capacity or largest unit; whichever is larger.
3.1.8 GENERATION
For peak load conditions the BID model was used to determine the optimal generation mix comprising of various energy resources taking into consideration the marginal cost of production for the different plants. For the minimum load conditions, the must run power plants shall be used in conjunction with the most economical generation.
3.1.9 FAULT CURRENT CRITERIA
Three phase and single phase to ground fault current values associated with transmission system buses are reviewed to check equipment adequacy. Transmission facilities are rechecked as needed to determine that all equipment can withstand available fault duty. These checks include fault interrupting capacities, fault withstand capacities both electrical and mechanical, and grounding checks. Maximum fault levels should not exceed 80% of the rated fault interrupting capacity of the circuit breaker.
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Rated Voltage (kV) Switchgear Rating (kA) 220 40 132 31.5 66 31.5 33 25 11 25 TABLE 3:SWITCHGEAR RATED FAULT CURRENT INTERRUPTING CAPACITY
3.1.10 SYSTEM FREQUENCY
The operating frequency of the system should be maintained within ±1% of 50Hz. This is a Uganda grid code requirement. Sufficient means to carry out active load balancing with active power generation shall be put in place to ensure that the frequency is within the set limits.
3.1.11 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY As new transmission infrastructure is planned, consideration shall be made of the fact that sufficient communication facilities shall be incorporated to cater for present and future needs of the company and other potential external users.
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4 BASE CASE SCENARIO
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4 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS
The load forecast is based on population growth forecasts, new connection forecasts power export obligations and power transmission losses and gross domestic product (GDP). Eviews software and BID model were applied. The assumptions and results for load forecast and demand-supply balance are discussed below.
4.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND - SUPPLY PROGNOSIS
4.1.2 LOAD FACTOR
. Load factor is 70%. This is based on the historical data as recorded at the National Control Centre. The load factor is assumed to increase to maximum 75% by the end of the planning period.
Year 2002-2008 2009-2011 2012-2013 2014-2017 2018-2020 2021-2030 Load 65% 68% 70% 71% 73% 75% factor TABLE 4:LOAD FACTOR PROJECTION
4.1.3 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Year 2012-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Overall GDP growth 8.44% 8.58% 8.35% 8.07% Commercial sector 9.3% 9.35% 9.05% 8.85% Industrial sector 9.67% 9.52% 9.67% 8.71% TABLE 5:GDP PROJECTIONS
4.1.4 ELECTRIFICATION RATES
. Rural electrification: is currently at 7%. The rate is expected to be 22% by 2022 basing on Government of Uganda Rural Electrification Strategy and Plan. It is estimated that the rural electrification rate will be 31% by 2030. . National electrification rate currently stands at 16% and is expected to be at 80% by 2040 (Vision 2040). . New connections: Rate of new connections is 60,000 connections per annum for the entire planning period1.
1 Source: UMEME Ltd Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 19 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
4.1.5 POPULATION GROWTH
. The forecast population growth rate for the country is 3.03% per annum on average between 2008 and 2030. The 2014 national census results indicate that Uganda’s population is estimated at 34.2million2.
4.1.6 SYSTEM LOSSES
. It was assumed that, given the aggressive program that is in place to reduce non-technical and technical losses, non-technical losses will reduce to 3% by 2020 and that distribution technical losses will reduce to 14% by 2020. Thereafter losses are assumed to remain at these levels to 2030
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022- 2030 Total 38 36 35.4 31.3 29.5 27.5 25.4 24.3 23.2 22 21 16.4 16.4 16.2 16 Energy Losses (%)
Transmissi 4 4 3.9 4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3 3 3 3 3 3.0 on Losses (%)
Distributio 34 32 31.5 27.3 26 23 20 18.3 16.9 15.7 14.7 14 14 14 14 n Losses (%) TABLE 6:SYSTEM LOSS PROJECTIONS
4.1.7 EXPORT POTENTIAL
The export potential to Uganda’s neighboring countries was assumed as follows Market 2012-2019 2020 - 2030 Tanzania 10 – 13 MW 15 – 100 MW Kenya 0 – 4 MW 0 – 4 MW D.R. Congo 2 – 5 MW 50 MW Rwanda 0-100MW 100 – 150 MW Sudan -- 0 – 50 MW TABLE 7:EXPORT PROJECTIONS
2 MoFPED – 2014 Uganda Population Report
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4.2 ASSUMPTIONS FOR GENERATION PLAN 1. For the River Nile based generation plants, the average flow considered is 800 cumecs which is equivalent to P503. 2. Spinning Reserve –Capacity of biggest unit on system (50MW) 3. Plant factor for large hydros is : Nalubaale & Kira – 0.38 Bujagali – 0.6 4. Eskom dispatch is optimised in accordance with the allowable discharge as follows: Peak: 190-210MW Shoulder: 135-170MW Off peak: 80-150MW –The Exact dispatch will depend on the coincident demand requirements for the different periods 5. Dispatch of Bujagali HPP will follow the discharge from Kiira and Nalubaale thus limiting its capacity to 1.237 times the combined dispatch of Nalubaale and Kiira and is estimated as below; Peak: 235 -250MW Shoulder : 165 - 210MW Off peak: 100 -180MW -The exact dispatch will depend on the coincident maximum demand requirements for the different periods 6. Mini hydros have been dispatched with a plant factor between 40% and 60%. All the mini-hydro Power Plants are dispatched as base plants. The following plant factors have been observed and are assumed to hold for the future:- KML 0.52 Bugoye 0.7 Mpanga 0.45 Ishasha 0.4 7. Thermal Power Plants: Namanve 50MW HFO Thermal Plant: Namanve (50MW) thermal power plant shall be dispatched according to merit order dispatch up to 50MW. It has an availability of 85%. Currently allowed to dispatch 7MW Electromax (50MW) thermal power plants; availability of 85%. Currently allowed to dispatch 7MW Kabaale test crude and gas 57MW Thermal Plant (Formerly Mputa HFO plant): The plant shall be operated for 24 hours per day, dispatching 53MW. Other thermal power plants shall be dispatched according to the related Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
3 Probability of getting 50%
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4.3 PRESENT DEMAND- SUPPLY STATUS The graph below shows the energy demand4 and supply as recorded for the period December 2013 – December 2014. An analysis shows an annual growth in energy supply and demand of 6%. This shows that the electricity supply needs to be maintained at this rate or higher in order to avoid running into a deficit situation.
Energy Supply and Demand December '13 - December '14 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140
GWh 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Month Gross Domestic-Constrained Kenya Net Export Tanzania Export ~132 kV Losses** *Total Energy Gross UETCL Units to UMEME Gross Domestic Generation Eskom Net Units to UETCL Total Aggreko Units to UETCL/UMEME Total Thermal Generation(Diezel&HFO) Bujagali Net Units to UETCL FIGURE 2: ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND DEC 2013 - DEC 2014
The graph below shows the load duration curve for December 2014. It illustrates the relationship between generating capacity requirements and capacity utilization and the change in the one year period.
The maximum system peak demand registered in 2014 was about 549.78MW and 510.7MW in 2013. The peak demand period is experienced for about 15% of the time. There is need to improve Demand Side Management measures to reduce the peak demand to avoid investment in expensive peaking generation facilities.
4 Source: UETCL Control Centre Monthly Reports
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The future outlook of the Demand –Supply is presented in Annex A.1.
Load Duration Curve December 2014
600
500
400
300
200
100 System Demand Level, MW
0 0 5 10 14 19 24 28 33 38 42% 47 of Time 52 57 61 66 71 75 80 85 90 94 99
TOTAL DEMAND
Figure 3: LOAD DURATION CURVE DEC'14
In order to meet the power and energy requirements, the generation plants in Table 8 are utilized.
CATEGORY/SUPPLIER INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) DISPATCH AS AT DECEMBER 2014
LARGE HYDROS
ESKOM UGANDA 380MW 210MW LIMITED BUJAGALI 250MW 250MW
MINI HYDROS
MPANGA 18MW 6MW
BUGOYE 13MW 7MW
KILEMBE MINES 5MW 3MW
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 23 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
KASESE COBALT 9.5MW (Own Use) 5MW
ISHASHA 6.5MW 3MW
BUSERUKA 9MW 3MW
CO-GENERATION
KAKIRA SUGAR 51MW 32MW WORKS KINYARA SUGAR 7.5MW 2.5MW WORKS THERMAL
JACOBSEN UGANDA 50MW 7MW LIMITED (NAMANVE HFO) ELECTROMAXX 50MW 7MW (TORORO HFO) AVAILABLE TOTAL GENERATION 536
ENVISAGED SURPLUS 20
TABLE 8: EXISTING GENERATION PLANTS
Plant Installed Capacity Year of Decommissioning
Nebbi 0.25 MVA ‐
Adjumani 0.34 MVA ‐
Arua 1.23 MVA ‐
Moroto 0.34 MVA ‐
Moyo 0.25 MVA ‐
Total‐Off‐Grid 2.41 MVA ‐
TABLE 9: EXISTING OFF-GRID PLANTS
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 24 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
4.4 DEMAND FORECAST The demand prognosis was prepared using 2014 as the base year. For the Base case scenario demand forecast, the assumptions in section 4.1 above were used. A correlation factor between electricity consumption and the Gross Domestic Product was determined using historical values. The average annual growth rates obtained for the planning period is 8% for both peak demand and energy. A summary of the load forecast results is shown in the figures below:-
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Domestic 508.37 548.16 652.57 708.06 770.98 837.82 914.93 905.46 987.82 Demand (MW) Total 518 560 665 721 785 902 1030 1022 1208 Demand (Domestic +Export)_ (MW) Year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1097.44 1216.22 1272.93 1338.75 1478.84 1551.78 1622.38 1707.02
Domestic Demand (MW) Total 1367 1436 1523 1589 1729 1802 1872 1957 Demand (Domestic +Export) (MW) TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF LOAD FORECAST 2014-2030
4.5 GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN The objective of generation expansion planning is to determine the generation capacity and energy requirements to meet forecasted demand during the planning period.
Table 11 shows the generation plan with evacuation line projects
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 25 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
No. POWER POWER EVACUATION PROJECT/ EVACUATION OF THE PLANT PLANT PLANT COMMISSIONING YEAR CAPACITY (MW) 1 2012 250 Bujagali Bujagali Switchyard upgrade: 2x250MVA 132/220kV substation
2 2012 3.5 Nyagak1 Embedded generation and operating off grid but shall 2016 4.4 Nyagak 3 eventually be evacuated via 132kV Lira Gulu Nebbi Arua Project
3 2013 9 Buseruka Embedded Generation and also to be evacuated via 226km, 220kV, 380MVA Hoima, Fortportal, Nkenda Double Circuit Transmission line
4 2013 20 Kakira- Embedded Generation: The plant is being evacuated via a Additional 33kV power line to Jinja Industrial Substation
5 2016 33 Kabale Peat Embedded generation, 132kV Mirama Kabale Double Circuit Transmission Line Project
6 2016 16 Kikagati 38km, 132 kV double circuit Mirama-Kikagati- 2016 35 Nsongezi Nsongezi Transmission line, Mirama 220/132kV Substation extension
Kikagati Substation: 2 x 33/132kV, 15/20MVA transformers complete with bays 4 x line feeder bays for 132kV lines to Mirama and to Nsongezi Nshongezi 33/132kV Substation: 2x32/40MVA power transformer 2 x line feeder bay for 132kV lines from Kikagati
8 2016 26-52 Muzizi To be interconnected and evacuated via 226km, 132 (220kV) double circuit Nkenda Fort Portal Hoima transmission line
9 2016 9.2 Nyamwamba Embedded generation, To be evacuated at Nkenda Substation: A new 2x60MVA, 33/132kV Substation is proposed adjacent to Nkenda Substation
10 2016 50 Namugoga Embedded generation and to be evacuated via 25km, 132kV
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 26 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
No. POWER POWER EVACUATION PROJECT/ EVACUATION OF THE PLANT PLANT PLANT COMMISSIONING YEAR CAPACITY (MW) Solar Mutundwe Entebbe transmission line
11 2016 21.5 Siti 1 & 2 80km, 132kV Mbale Bulambuli transmission line, 132/33kV 2X32/40MVA Mbale substation, 132/33kV, 2X32/40MVA Bulambuli substation
12 2016 5.4 Lubilia (Kasese) Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid)
13 2016 5.5 Rwimi (Kasese) Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid)
14 2016 6.7 Nengo Bridge Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid) (Rukungiri)
15 2016 5 Waki (Bulisa) Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid)
16 2016 22 TBEU Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid)
17 2016 50 Albatross 220kV Hoima Nkenda Project
18 2016 50 Mputa Test 220kV Hoima Nkenda Project Crude 19 2016 33 Kabaale Peat 132kV Mirama Kabale Project
20 2017 88 Agago/AchwaI,I 132kV Lira Gulu Agago Project I,&III 21 2016 40 Kinyara 45km, 132kV double circuit Hoima Kiyara transmission line
22 2017 18 Nyamughasani To be evacuated at Nkenda Substation: A new 2x60MVA, 33/132kV Substation is proposed adjacent to Nkenda Substation
23 2017 6.5 Muvumbe Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid)
24 2017 5.1 Ndugutu Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid) (Bundibugyo)
25 2017 5.5 Sindila Embedded generation: (connecting to the 33kV grid) (Bundibugyo)
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 27 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
No. POWER POWER EVACUATION PROJECT/ EVACUATION OF THE
PLANT PLANT PLANT COMMISSIONING YEAR CAPACITY (MW) CAPACITY (MW) 26 2017 183 Isimba 42km, 132kV Isimba Bujagali double Circuit transmission line, 2x132kV Isimba bays at Bujagali and 2x132kV Bujagali bays at Isimba
27 2018 600 Karuma Karuma Interconnection Project: 248.2km, 400kV, 1423MVA Double Circuit Karuma Kawanda Transmission line, 2x6550MVA, 400/220kV Kawanda Substation 54.25km, 400kV 1423MVA Double Circuit Karuma Olwiyo Transmission line, 2x125MVA, 400/132/33kV Olwiyo Substation 75.5km, 132kV, 135MVA Karuma Lira Double Circuit Transmission line 28 2020 600 Ayago 12.57km, 400kV underground cable double circuit Ayago Olwiyo transmission line
29 2020 150 Albatross 220kV Hoima Nkenda Project
30 2025 500 Oriang To be evacuated at Olwiyo Substation
31 2030 500 Kiba To be evacuated at Olwiyo Substation
TABLE 11:GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN
4.6 FORECASTED GENERATION MIX 2020 2015 Generation mix Hydro Thermal Cogeneration Hydro Thermal Cogeneration 5% 15% 3%8%
80% 89%
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4% 2026
Hydro Thermal Cogeneration 10%
86%
FIGURE 4: FORECASTED GENERATION MIX
4.7 DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCE FINDINGS The Load forecast, Power and Energyg balance are presented in appendix A.1. The charts below illustrate the demand-supply balance prognosis 2014-20300.
3500 3500 Demand ‐Supply Power Balance Prognosis 3000 3000
2500 2500
2000 2000 (MW)
1500 1500 Power 1000 1000
500 500
0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025202620272028 2029 2030 Years Total Generation (MW) Domestic demand Domestic & Export demand Domestic demand High
FIGURE 5: POWER PROJECTION 2014 – 2030
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17000
15000 Demand ‐Supply Energy Balance Prognosis
13000
11000 (GWh) 9000
7000 Energy
5000
3000
1000 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 Years Total Generation (MW) Domestic demand Domestic & Export demand
Figure 6: Energy projection 2014 ‐ 2030
4.7.1 OBSERVATIONS AND FINDINGS FROM DEMAND SUPPLY BALANCE
Mitigation measures • In 2016, the generation shortfall can be bridged by: – Increasing the dispatch from thermal power plants – Optimization of available generation resources – Import power from neighbouring countries e.g. Kenya
• From 2017 to 2030, the excess generation capacity can be utilized throughh: Development of Industrial loads Exportation to neighbouring countries
Recommendation • Demand growth opportunities need to be explored in order to realise demand that matches the geeneration capacity development. • Hydro power generation plant development should be matched with demand growth outlook.
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limitted 30 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
5 POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS
5.1 PRESENT POWER SYSTEM The current transmission lines and substations are presented in appendix A.3 and A.4 detailing the capacities of the components. The present 2014 power system is illustrated in appendix A.5.1. This grid consists of: The hydro power plants: Owen-Falls complex (Nalubaale and Kiira HPPs) whose installed capacity is 380MW, Bujagali (250MW), Mobuku1 (5MW), Bugoye (13MW) and Mobuku 3(9.5MW), Mpanga (18MW) and Ishasha (6.5MW), Buseruka (9MW). The thermal power plants: Namanve 50MW and Electromaxx 50MW plants Co-generation, Bagasse plants: Kakira Sugar works 51MW plant and Kinyara sugar works 7.5MW plant The transmission grid: Presently, the transmission grid comprises 150km of 220kV (initially operated at 132kV), 1443km of 132kV and 35.2km of 66kV high voltage transmission lines and 17 substations (Including Kabulasoke switching station).
5.2 POWER SYSTEM MODELS Power system models were developed to enable analysis of present and future power systems. An Engineering software, PSS/E (Power System Simulation for Engineers), was used to develop the models. Six models were developed to analyze the present and future grids. The six models included 2014 models (as at December base models), 2016 model, 2018 model, 2020 Model, 2025 Model and 2030 Model. The above grid models were established and analyzed to determine whether the grid shall behave within agreed voltage and thermal limits. The power system studies included: load flow and fault analysis. The results were analyzed to pre-determine the following:
. Network reliability . Power supply quality . Technical losses and . Optimum utilization of transmission lines and substations
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 31 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
5.2.1 MODEL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS
Input Data
The input data for power system modeling is:
• Plant and Generator data • Exciter Data • Governor Data • Transformer data • Substation loads • Line parameters for Existing transmission lines • Line parameters for planned transmission lines
Output Results
The output results for power system modeling are:
a) Power flow result in terms of:
• Voltage profile to guard against insulation failure and maintain quality of supply • Line and transformer loading • Power flow and • Losses
b) Fault calculation results in terms of: • Fault levels to confirm switchgear safe breaking capability and protection settings c) Contingency Analysis d) Economic Dispatch/ Optimal power flow e) Dynamic System Analysis: • Power system stability to avoid black outs and maintain quality of supply
The technical analysis derived from power system studies formed a basis for determining technical viability and timing of the projects. The results of the studies are presented below.
5.2.2 2014 MODEL – PRESENT STATUS
The demand and generation capacity modelled are:- • Peak Demand : 502.5 MW • Available Generation : 537.5MW • Required generation : 527.5MW • Generation Surplus : 9.5MW • Transmission power losses : 25.03MW (4.74%) • Transmission energy losses : 3.75% Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 32 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
Key Events • Mutundwe-Kabulasoke restrung using AAAC 200.
Findings • No buses violate the voltage limits of +/- 10% • No loading violations on lines or transformers above 100% • High fault currents were observed at the following buses: Kampala North 11kV bus – 40.5kA (162%), Lugogo 11kV bus – 19.4kA (84%), Mutundwe 11kV bus – 25kA (100%), Lugogo 33kV bus – 19.2kA (119%) and Bujagali 9.5kV bus – 44.5kA. N-1 criterion is violated at the following substations: Mbarara 132/33kV, Kampala North 132/33/11kV, Lugogo 132/33/11kV, Kawanda 132/33kV, Mutundwe 132/33/11kV, Opuyo 132/33kV , Nkonge 132/33kV.
Mitigation Measures • Expedite the replacement of the current limiting reactors at Kampala North substation. • Install current limiting reactors at Mutundwe for 11kV transformers. • Upgrade transformation capacities where N-1 criterion is violated. • UMEME should consider 33kV interconnectors between substations.
5.2.3 2016 MODEL
The demand and generation capacity modeled are:- Peak Demand : 665MW Available generation :709.8MW Required generation : 781.47MW Deficit generation : 71.9MW Trans. power losses : 44.57MW (5.7%) Trans. energy losses : 4.5%
Key Events Commissioning of the following lines: Tororo – Opuyo – Lira 132kV, Mbarara – Nkenda 132kV , Bujagali – Tororo –Lessos (220kV), Mbarara-Mirama-Birembo (220kV), Bujagali switchyard, Kawanda-Masaka (220kV), Masaka-Mbarara (220kV), Commissioning of the following plants; SAIL (6.9MW), Mayuge sugar (6.3MW), Nyamwamba (9.2MW), Kikagati (16MW), Rwimi (5.54MW), Siti I (6.1MW), Lubilia (5.4MW), Muvumbe (6.5MW) and waki (4.8MW)
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 33 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
Findings • No buses violate the voltage limits of +/- 10% • Low bus voltage observed at different substations: Kawanda, Lugogo and Namanve, Kawaala, Kampala North, Mutundwe. (0.9 >kV <0.95pu): • High voltage at Lira 132kV (139.2kV/105.5%) bus (above 1.05pu) • Kawanda 132/33kV transformer is loaded at 110% • N-1 criterion is violated at the following substations: Mbarara 132/33kV, Kampala North 132/33/11kV, Lugogo 132/33/11kV, Kawanda 132/33kV, Mutundwe 132/33/11kV, Lugazi 66/11kV, Tororo 132/33kV, Masaka West 132/33kV, Opuyo and Nkonge 132/33kV.
Mitigation Measures • Expedite the construction of Industrial park substations and an alternative ring around Kampala. • Upgrade Kawanda substation to include an additional 132/33kV, 60MVA transformer. • Utilize the 33kV windings (50MVA) on the Kawanda 220/132/33kV interbus transformers as loaded windings. • Install a reactor of 10MVAr at Lira 33kV bus. • Allow for dispatch of thermal plants or more water release – losses reduce to 4.2%
FIGURE 7:PROPOSED ALTERNATE RING AROUND KAMPALA
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 34 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
5.2.4 2018 MODEL
The demand and generation capacity modeled are:- • Peak Demand : 785MW • Available generation : 1257.2MW • Required generation : 839.7MW • Surplus generation : 417.5MW • Trans. power losses : 54.79MW (4.35%) • Trans. energy losses : 3.44%
Key Events • Commissioning of large hydro: Karuma-600MW, Isimba -183MW and Agago/Achwa – 88MW • Commissioning of the following mini-hydros – Nshongyezi -35MW, Muzizi – 27MW, Kyambura 8.3MW, Muyembe – 10MW, Siti II – 16.5MW, Nengo Bridge – 6.7MW, Nsongezi -35MW, Sindila – 5.5MW, Ndugutu – 5.1MW, Kakaka – 5MW and Maziba (1MW) • Kabaale/Albatros/Albertine– 53MW, Katwe Geothermal– 50MW commissioned. Kinyara upgraded to 35MW • • The following projects commissioned: Mutundwe-Entebbe (132kV), Nkenda-Fort Portal – Hoima (220kV), Industrial park substations and associated T-Lines (Namanve South, Mukono, Luzira and Iganga), Lira-Gulu-Agago (132kV), Mirama-Kabale (132kV), Karuma Interconnection, Isimba Interconnection, Hoima-Kinyara (132kV), Mirama-Kikagati-Nshongezi (132kV), Opuyo – Moroto (132kV), Mbale-Bulambuli (132kV), Queensway 132/33kV, Kampala Metropolitan project (Gaba, Buloba, Kawanda upgrade, Kawaala upgrade and associated transmission lines), New Nkenda 132/33kV substation, Opuyo substations upgrade
Findings • No voltage violations are observed. • Overload on Mbarara 220/132/33kV transformers at 145%. • Overload observed on Bujagali-Nalubale 132kV lines
Mitigation Measures • Install a second transformer at Mbarara new substation 220/132/33kV, 60MVA • Expedite the upgrade of Nalubale-Lugazi 132kV • Upgrade Bujagali-Nalubale 132kV lines
5.2.5 2020 MODEL
The demand and generation capacity modeled are:- • Peak Demand : 1030MW
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 35 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
• Available Generation : 1470.2MW • Required Generation : 1077.17MW • Surplus Generation : 393MW • Transmission power Losses : 47.17MW (3.2%) • Transmission energy Losses : 2.5%
Key Events • Ayago 600MW Commissioned • The following projects commissioned: Ayago – Olwiyo (400kV), Olwiyo – Nimule – Juba (400kV), Nalubaale-Lugazi (132kV), Lira-Gulu-Nebbi-Arua (132kV), Kinyara-Kafu (132kV), Masaka- Mwanza (220kV), Kawanda-Bombo (132kV), Kabulasoke-Kiganda-Kiboga-Hoima (132kV), Nkenda-Mpondwe-Beni (220kV), Upgrade Nkenda, Fort portal and Hoima substations to 220kV , Upgrade of Bujagali-Nalubale 132kV line
Findings High voltages (>1.05pu) were observed at the following buses: Olwiyo 400kV – 421.11kV (105%), Ayago 400kV – 420.52kV (105%), Nebbi 132kV – 139.67kV (106%), Arua 33kV - 34.676kV (105%), Nimule 400kV – 429.35kV (107%) and Arua 132kV – 139.67kV (106%)
Mitigation measures Install reactive power compensation at Olwiyo 400/132kV substation of about 40MVAr
5.2.6 2025 MODEL
The demand and generation capacity modeled are:- Peak Demand : 1523MW Available Generation : 2158MW Envisaged surplus : 635.3 MW
Key Events • Oriang 400MW and Kiba 400MW commissioned • Karuma – Tororo (400kV), Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda interconnection upgraded to 400kV, Mutundwe- Kabulasoke-Nkenda (220kV)commissioned, Hoima-Kinyara-Kafu upgraded to 220kV
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 36 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
5.3 SYSTEM ANALYSIS SUMMARY 012345 1500 1600 1400 1000 1200 1000 Required Gen. (MW) (MW)
500 800 Surplus/Deficit (MW) 600 Peak Load (MW) Available Gen. (MW) 0 400 Capacity 2014 2016 2018 2020 200 ‐500 0 Years
FIGURE 8:SHORT-TERM PROGNOSIS OF SUPPLY, DEMAND, SURPLUS/DEFICIT POWER 2014-2020
6 5 Loss 4 3 Power losses (%) 2 Energy Losses (%)
Percentage 1 0 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year
FIGURE 9:SHORT-TERM PROGNOSIS OF LOSS TRAJECTORY 2014-2020
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 37 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
6 GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030)
To ensure that the future electricity needs of the nation are satisfied, there is need to have major capital investments in the power sector. Such investments comprise of generation plants, transmission lines and expansion of the distribution network. It is against this background that the Grid Investment Plan was developed to establish a rationale for building a robust network, contribute to Government of Uganda’s strategic objective to provide adequate and reliable energy supply to meet national and regional, socio-economic development.
The Grid Investment Plan Projects have been classified into the following categories:
Power evacuation projects Grid re-investment projects System Expansion Projects Other System Expansion Projects and Regional Projects
6.1 GRID INVESTMENT PLAN SUMMARY The Grid Investments, objectives, cost estimates and implementation period are presented in the Table 12 below. The detailed Grid Investment Plan is presented in Appendix A.2. 1USD=UGX 3,001.86 ;Source BOU 7/8/2015
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
A POWER EVACUATION PROJECTS 1 Bujagali Evacuation of 33 11,100 2012-2015 AfDB at EPC switchyard Power from Upgrade to Bujagali HPP 220kV 2 Karuma Evacuation of 870 289,905 2015-2018 China EXIM Interconnection power from Bank at EPC Project Karuma HPP Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 38 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
(Karuma- and Supporting Kawanda Rural 400kV(248km), electrification Karuma-Lira program 132kV (80km), Karuma - Olwiyo 400kV (55km) and related substations) 3 Nkenda- Improvement of 257 85,601 2015-2017 Government of Fortportal- reliability and the Royal Hoima 220kV quality of supply Kingdom of DCST 226km in the western Norway and related region of Uganda. and substations Provision of French transmission Development capacity to Agency (AFD) evacuate power at EPC from Kabaale 53MW Testcrude
4 Isimba Provision of 30 9,945 2015-2017 China EXIM Interconnection transmission Bank at EPC Project: (40km capacity to 132kV DCST evacuate power Line and from Isimba HPP substation works) 5 Mbale – Provision of 120 39,819 2016-2018 KFW at FS Bulambuli transmission Project (132kV, capacity to 50km DCST evacuate power and related IPPs in substation Bulambuli area works) 6 Lira – Gulu – Provision of 219 73,089 2016-2018 GOU at FS Agago Project transmission (132kV, 175km capacity to
Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 39 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
DCST and evacuate power related from Agago substation 83MW HPP works) 7 Mirama – Provision of 119 39,763 2016-2018 Government of Kikagati – transmission the Royal Nshongyezi – capacity to Kindgom of Project (132kV evacuate power Norway at FS , 55km DCST Line and Related Substations) 8 Hoima – Provision of 48 16,000 2016-2017 Government of Kinyara transmission the Royal Project (220kV capacity to Kindgom of , 45km DCST evacuate power Norway Line and related Sourcing for substations) financing from World Bank at EPC 9 Ayago Provision of 225 75,000 2018-2020 China EXIM Interconnection transmission Bank at EPC Project (400kV, capacity to 10km UG evacuate power Cable and from Ayago HPP related substation works) 10 KIBA HYDRO Provision of 25 8,204 2023-2025 To be POWER transmission determined PROJECT capacity to (Kiba - Olwiyo evacuate power 400kV ( 19km) from KIBA HPP and related substation works) 11 MURCHISON Provision of 49 16,408 2023-2025 To be HYDRO transmission determined Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 40 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
POWER capacity to PROJECT evacuate power (Murchison - from Murchison Olwiyo 400kV ( falls HPP 38km) and related substation works) 12 ORIANG Provision of 25 8,204 2025- 2030 To be HYDRO transmission determined POWER capacity to PROJECT evacuate power (Oriang - from Oriang Karuma 400kV ( 19km) and related substation works)
B GRID RE- INVESTMENT PROJECTS 1. Tariff Funded 1 Projects High Voltage Transmission Line Works - Kabulasoke- Improvement of 9 3,000 2016-2017 GOU Nkonge- reliability and Nkenda 132kV power supply 216.5 km quality - Kabulasoke- Improvement of 5 1,500 2016-2017 GOU Masaka West reliability and 132kV 60km power supply quality - Reconductorin Improvement of 2 500 2018 GOU g 3km of reliability and Bujagali - power supply Nalubale line quality Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 41 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
with HTLS (High Temperature Low Sag) Conductor - Re- Improvement of 2 500 2018 GOU conductoring reliability and 3km of Bujagali power supply - Tororo line quality with HTLS Conductor 1. Tariff Funded 2 Projects Substation Works - Replacement Improvement of 2 700 2015 GOU of 33kV reliability and Switchgear(Sie power supply mens SG) at quality Tororo Substation - Refurbishment Improvement of 3 1,150 2016 GOU of existing reliability and Namanve bay power supply at Kampala quality North (former OWFS 2 Bay) - Refurbrishment Improvement of 2 700 2016 GOU of 33kV reliability and transformer power supply bays at Lira quality Substation - Replacement Improvement of 2 700 2016 GOU of 33kV reliability and Switchgear at power supply Opuyo quality Substation - 2x33kV Improvement of 8 2,500 2017 GOU Current reliability and Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 42 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
Limitting power supply Reactors at quality Nalubaale - Installation of Improvement of 4 1,200 2019 GOU 30 MVAr, 33kV reliability and Static VAR power supply Compensators quality (SVC) at Namanve South 132/33kV Substation - Installation of Improvement of 1 200 2020 GOU 5MVAr 33kV reliability and SVC at power supply Queensway quality Substation - Installation of Improvement of 5 1,600 2022 GOU 2x20MVAr reliability and Shunt Reactor power supply Masaka West quality Substation - Installation of Improvement of 3 1,000 2025 GOU 1x25MVAr reliability and Shunt Reactor power supply Kabale quality Substation 2 Tororo-Opuyo- Improvement of 252 84,063 2013-2015 AfDB Lira 132kV reliability and (260km) power supply quality 3 Owenfalls- Increase of line 78 26,016 2017-2018 Sourcing for Namanve- capacity financing from kampala North JICA transmission line Refurbishment (Reconductorin g 68.8km with Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 43 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
HTLS) 4 Kampala Increase of line 18 6,110 2017-2018 To be North- capacity determined Namungona- Mutundwe 132kV transmission line Refurbishment (Re- conductoring 11km with HTLS) 5 Nkenda Increase 47 15,500 2016-2017 Sourcing for Substation Substation financing from 132/33kV Capacity the World (Additional Bank for EPC 2x60MVA construction 132/33kV Transformers) 6 Kawanda Provision of 15 4,938 2016-2018 Sourcing for substation adequate financing from upgrade by capacity JICA 1x40MVA, 132/33kV Transformer 7 Namungoona Provision of 78 26,000 2016-2018 Sourcing for substation adequate financing from upgrade to capacity JICA 2x15/20MVA, 132/33kV GIS substation 8 Opuyo Provision of 15 4,938 2016-2018 Sourcing for Substation adequate financing from 132/33kV capacity KFW (additional 1x40MVA 132/33kV Transformer) Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 44 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
9 Lira 132/33kV Provision of 11 3,703 2016-2018 To be Substation adequate determined upgrade – capacity addition of transformation Capacity 11 Nkonge Provision of 12 4,103 2017-2018 To be Substation adequate determined (Refurbishment capacity and Upgrade with additional 1x20MVA Transformer 12 Nalubale Provision of 22 7,369 2018-2019 To be Lugazi adequate determined Transmission capacity, Line Project improvement of Nalubale reliability Substation 66/11kV (Upgrade to 2x40MVA 66/11kV Transformers) Lugazi Substation 66/11kV (Upgrade to 2x40MVA 66/11kV Transformers) 13 Mbarara North Provision of 72 24,027 2018-2019 To be Substation adequate determined Additional capacity 2x40MVA 132/33kV transformers 14 Masaka West Provision of 24 8,009 2018-2019 To be Substation adequate determined Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 45 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
Additional capacity, 2x40MVA Improvement of 132/33kV Reliability transformers C System Expansion Projects 1 Mbarara - Improvem 183 60,984 2013-2015 AfDB at EPC Nkenda 132kV ent of DCST, 160km reliability and Fort portal and 132/33kV quality of substation supply in the western region of Uganda. Provision of transmissi on capacity to evacuate power from other generatio n plants in the West. 2 Kawanda - Improvement of 242 80,549 2014-2016 WB at EPC Masaka 220kV, reliability, DCST 137km availability and and associated quality of power substations supply 3 Mutundwe - Improvement of 146 48,784 2015-2017 KFW at FS Entebbe reliability and and EPC 132kV, 35km quality of power Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 46 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
and supply substations 4 Queensway Improvement of 81 26,850 2015-2017 JICA at EPC Substation reliability, 3x40MVA, availability and 132/33kV quality of power Project supply 5 Namanve Improvement of 79 26,350 2015-2017 China EXIM South availability, Bank at EPC 3x63MVA reliability, and 132/33kV quality of power Industrial Park supply Project 6 Luzira Improvement of 79 26,306 2015-2017 China EXIM Industrial Park availability, Bank at EPC 2x40MVA reliability, and 132/33kV quality of power Project supply 7 Mukono Improvement of 74 24,750 2015-2017 China EXIM 3x63MVA availability, Bank at EPC 132/33kV reliability, and industrial park quality of power project supply 8 Iganga Improvement of 57 19,086 2015-2017 China EXIM 2x40MVA availability, Bank at EPC 132/33kV reliability, and Industrial Park quality of power project supply 9 Masaka- Grid expansion 182 60,750 2015-2016 AFD at FS and Mbarara 220kV to serve new EPC DCST (135km) load centers and supporting rural electrification programme 10 Opuyo - Moroto Grid expansion 196 65,394 2016-2018 ISDB at EPC 132kV, 157km to serve new load centers and supporting rural electrification Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 47 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
programme 11 Mirama - Improvement of 120 39,814 2016-2018 ISDB at EPC Kabale 132kV availability, DCST (76km) reliability, and and Kabale quality of power substation supply 12 Mutundwe - Improvement of 111 36,879 2017-2018 Sourcing Buloba 132kV availability, financing from DCST (25km) reliability, and JICA quality of power supply 13 Mutundwe - Improvement of 110 36,739 2017-2018 Sourcing Gaba - Luzira availability, financing from 132kV DCST reliability, and JICA (50km) quality of power supply 14 Kabulasoke- Improvement of 255 84,848 2017-2019 GOU at FS Kiboga Hoima availability, 132kV DCST ( reliability, and 190 km) and quality of power Kiboga supply Substation 15 Lira-Gulu Improvement of 121 40,360 2017-2019 WB at FS 132kV DCST availability, (100km) and reliability, and associated quality of power substation supply works 16 Gulu-Kitgum Improvement of 144 47,864 2017-2019 WB at FS 132kV DCST availability, (110km) and reliability, and Kitgum quality of power Substation supply 17 Gulu- Olwiyo - Improvement of 224 74,524 2017-2019 WB at FS Nebbi 132kV availability, SCST (175km) reliability, and and Nebbi quality of power substation supply
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UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
18 Nebbi-Arua 111 36,844 2017-2019 WB at FS 132kV DCST (74 km) 19 Kinyara-Kafu Improvement of 94 31,225 2018-2020 To be 220kV (47km) availability, determined reliability, and quality of power supply 20 Kawanda - Improvement of 87 28,884 2018-2020 To be Luwero 132kV availability, determined DCST ( 50km) reliability, and quality of power supply 21 Nalubaale - Improvement of 81 27,135 2018-2020 To be Lugazi 132kV availability, determined DCST (38km) reliability, and quality of power supply 22 Mbarara - Improvement of 41 13,745 2019-2021 To be Ishaka 132kV availability, determined DCST ( 10km) reliability, and quality of power supply 23 Nkenda Improvement of 40 13,200 2023-2025 To be Substation availability, determined upgrade to reliability, and 220kV quality of power supply 24 Hoima Improvement of 40 13,200 2023-2025 To be Substation availability, determined upgrade to reliability, and 220kV quality of power supply 25 Fortportal Improvement of 14 4,600 2023-2025 To be substation availability, determined upgrade to reliability, and 220kV quality of power supply
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UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
26 Kafu Improvement of 167 55,745 2023-2025 To be Substation availability, determined upgrade to reliability, and 400/220kV quality of power supply 27 Nsasa - Improvement of 106 35,399 2023-2025 To be Namanve availability, determined 132kV DCST reliability, and (20km) quality of power supply 28 Buloba - Gaba Improvement of 145 48,224 2023-2025 To be 220kV DCST ( availability, determined 50km) reliability, and quality of power supply 29 Buloba – Improvement of 367 122,200 2023-2025 To be Nkenda 220kV availability, determined (300km) reliability, and quality of power supply 30 Karuma - Improvement of 1,147 382,020 2025-2030 To be Tororo 400kV availability, determined DCST (345km) reliability, and quality of power supply 31 Northern 2,579 858,995 2018-2025 Government of Corridor 400kV UgandaGover Integration nment of Backbone Rwanda/Gover (Tororo- nment of Bujagali- Kenya at FS Kawanda- Masaka- Mbarara- Mirama 850km) D Other System Expansion Projects 1 SCADA and Improvement of 20 6,500 2015-2016 Sourcing for Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 50 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
Communication availability, financing from upgrade and reliability, and World Bank Emergency quality of power Control Centre supply 2 SMART grid Total Quality 87 29,120 2015-2030 GOU implementation Improvement 3 Mobile Emergency 42 14,000 2016-2018 GOU Substations Preparedness 4 Human Human resource 26 8,771 2015-2030 GOU Resource Capacity to Capacity manage the project portfolio E Regional Interconnectio n Projects 1 Bujagali- Regional Power 231 76,814 2013-2015 AfDB and Tororo-Lessos Trade JICA at EPC 220kV, 127km Uganda's side 2 Mbarara- Regional power 234 77,968 2013-2015 AfDB and Mirama- trade JICA at EPC Birembo 220 kV, 66km (Uganda's side) and Mirama substation 3 Masaka - Regional Power 114 37,850 2016-2018 To be Mutukula - Trade determined Mwanza 220kV, (85km Uganda's side) 4 Nkenda- Regional Power 104 34,700 2017-2019 To be Mpondwe Trade determined (D.R.Congo) 220kV, 70km Uganda's side 5 Olwiyo-Nimule- Regional Power 438 146,050 2017-2019 To be Juba(Sudan) Trade determined 400kV Line- Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 51 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
UETCL GRID INVESTMENT PLAN (2014-2030) IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE SUMMARY No. PROJECT OBJECTIVE COST(BILLION COST(X1000 IMPLEMENTA FINANCIER UGX) USD) TION PERIOD
(190km Uganda’s part) TABLE 12:THE GRID INVESTMENT PLAN-BASE CASE
6.2 SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS BY THE YEAR 2030 Project Category Estimated Cost (Billion UGX) Estimated Cost (x1000USD)
Power Evacuation Projects 2,020 673,038
Re-Investment Projects 690 230,026
System Expansion Projects 7,596 2,530,638
Regional Interconnection Projects 1,120 373,382
Total Grid Investment Requirement 11,426 3,807,084
TABLE 13: SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS BY 2030
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FIGURE 10:UETCL GRID INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS 2013-2030
FIGURE 11:HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS
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6.3 REGIONAL INTERCONNECTION POWER LINES These are based on the recommendations from the interconnection studies carried out by the regional bodies (NBI and EAC) including EAPMP, the Comprehensive Basin Wide Study undertaken by the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and the Eastern Africa Power Pool Master Plan by EAPP.
Within the Nile Basin Initiative framework, the NELSAP has engaged in solidarity actions to promote poverty reduction, economic growth and reverse the environmental degradation process in member countries. Regarding the energy sector, the NBI focused on optimization and development of hydroelectric power generation and interconnection among member states.
The Interconnections projects, involving Uganda under the NELSAP project are currently under construction with expected commissioning year as 2015. These include: Uganda (Bujagali) – Kenya (Lessos) 220 kV line Uganda (Mbarara) – Rwanda (Birembo) 220 kV line Studies have been concluded for the following interconnectors awaiting implementation :- Uganda (Masaka) – Tanzania (Mwanza) 220kV line Uganda (Nkenda_ - DRC (Beni/Bunia) 220kV line No feasibility studies have been carried out on the proposed Uganda (Olwiyo)- Juba (Southern Sudan) 400kV interconnector.
6.4 PROJECT PRIORITIZATION It is observed, from the Grid Development Plan process, that there are numerous grid projects that have to be implemented in the first five years of the planning horizon. It is therefore necessary to prioritize these projects as a means of allowing special attention to the most critical ones. As a strategy for timely implementation of these projects, they have been categorized and prioritized as follows:
Projects for construction (committed): These comprise of projects whose feasibility studies have been completed and financing arrangements are either confirmed or in progress. Projects for feasibility studies: These comprise of projects for which feasibility studies are underway or about to commence. Projects for evacuation of power plants
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Project Rationale Current Status Financing Status Mbale Bulambuli 132kv Evacuation of Committed Hydro Procurement of Financing for Feasibility Line potential in Eastern Uganda Feasibility study Study Secured from kfW Consultant Sourcing Financing for EPC Lira – Gulu – Agago Evacuation of Committed Feasibility study is Financing for F/S 132kV Line generation (88MW) on River ongoing secured from GoU Aswa Sourcing Financing for EPC Hoima – Kinyara 220kV Evacuation of Committed Co- Feasibility study Sourcing Financing for Line generation from Kinyara Sugar Complete EPC Works Nkenda Substation Evacuation of Committed Tender Documents Sourcing Financing for Extension (2x60MVA generation in Western Uganda Prepared EPC 132/33kV) Mirama – Kikagati – Evacuation of Kikagati and Feasibility Study Financing for F/S Nsongezi 132kV Line Nsongezi HPPs Ongoing Secured from RNE Sourcing Financing for EPC Kawanda Upgrade by Provision of Adequate Capacity Tender Documents Sourcing Financing for 1x40MVA 132/33kV Tx at the substation Prepared EPC Opuyo Substation Provision of Adequate Tender Documents Sourcing Financing for Upgrade Transformation Capacity for Prepared EPC evacuation of Solar Generation plants Masaka – Mbarara Completion of the 220kV Feasibility Study Financing for F/S 220kV Line Backborne for the Northern Ongoing Secured from AFD Corridor Integration Sourcing Financing for EPC Namungoona Upgrade Providing Adequate capacity at Pre-Feasibility Sourcing Financing for to 2x40MVA 132/33kV the Substation to supply the City Feasibility Study and EPC Mutundwe – Buloba Providing adequate Capacity and Pre-Feasibility Sourcing Financing for 132kV Line and Buloba reliability to supply the City, Feasibility Study and 220/132/33kV Buloba Oil Pipeline Terminal EPC Substation Mutundwe – Gaba- Providing adequate Capacity and Pre-Feasibility Sourcing Financing for Luzira 132kV Line and reliability to supply the City and Feasibility Study and Gaba 132/33kV Gaba Water Works EPC Substation TABLE 14:TABLE 14: PROJECT PRIORITIZATION
By the end of the planning period and upon successful implementation of this plan, the grid shall have a total additional length of about 10,156km, 28 additional substations and 10,530MVA additional
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transformation capacity. Tables 15 and 16 below illustrate the incremental transmission line length, number of substations and transformational capacity during the period.
Line Voltage (kV) Line Length 2014 Line Length 2030 Additional Grid (km) (km) (km)
66 35 35 0 132 1,443 5,431 3,998 220 150 2,736 2,576 400 0 3,582 3,582 TABLE 15: TRANSMISSION LINE LENGTH GROWTH
2014 2030 Additional Grid
No. of Stations 16 44 28 (Substations and Switching Stations)
Transformation Capacity 1,180 11,710 10,530 (MVA)
TABLE 16: ADDITIONAL SUBSTATIONS AND TRANSFORMATION CAPACITY
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6.5 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY UETCL’s objective is to build and maintain the national grid that maintains a flexible and reliable electricity supply. This requires a changed approach to grid investment and a similar change in its telecommunications investment. UETCL currently implements the Optical Fibre with Ground Earth wire (OPGW) as part of every EPC contract for construction of transmission lines and as such the communication infrastructure is expanding at the same pace as the power transmission grid. The current UETCL telecommunications network is in most cases up to date but there is need to make certain that it shall continue to be future proof. The demand for a reliable communication network that ensures optimum management of the power system and its ability to meet other business requirements are increasing. UETCL’s response to the challenges faced includes and shall continue to have the following initiatives: Communication infrastructure that enables improved monitoring and control of the power system as well as increased access to detailed power system network information. The telecommunications network needs to support UETCL’s critical grid services comprising of tele-protection, SCADA, telemetering and voice communication. The move towards an IP based environment is leading UETCL into paying more attention to communication networks. Evolving real time requirements that shall impact on communication infrastructure development include:
o SCADA, which is changing to IP based solutions o IT security, which requires a robust and reliable network o New substation features, such as IP CCTV
In addition, new lines of business in telecommunication are being identified by the company. This shall ensure better utilisation of present and future grid communication infrastructure. Optical Fibre Leasing: This is a business area that has been identified by UETCL. All new transmission lines shall have sufficient optical fibre installed to cater for other users who wish to lease the fibre. An aggressive marketing campaign shall be used to attract more users. UETCL, however, has a challenge of avoiding service interruptions resulting from vandalising the towers that support the fibre.
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7 THE SMART GRID JOURNEY 2014 - 2030
The Ugandan grid was born over 50 years ago, at a time when needs were simpler and demand much lower. More complex needs are putting a heavy strain on the aging infrastructure, which is why all players need to innovate and update the grid so it’s Smart and ready for the demands of today and tomorrow.
Smart Grid continues to mature, new technologies with increased flexibility are making a significant impact on how the energy utilities industry moves forward worldwide.
UETCL has incorporated smart grid technologies in the Grid Development Plan strategically to tap into the associated benefits.
Smart grid benefits: A smart national grid : Improves power reliability and quality Optimizes facility utilization and averts construction of backup (peak load) power plants Enhances capacity and efficiency of existing electric power networks Improves resilience to disruption Enables predictive maintenance and “self-healing” responses to system disturbances Facilitates expanded deployment of renewable energy sources Accommodates distributed power sources Automates maintenance and operation Reduces greenhouse gas emissions by enabling electric vehicles and new power sources Reduces oil consumption by reducing the need for inefficient generation during peak usage periods Presents opportunities to improve grid security Enables transition to plug-in electric vehicles and new energy storage options Increases consumer choice Enables new products, services, and markets and consumer access to them
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Improved Integrated Information systems {e.g. SCADA, GIS5,WIS6,ERP7}
7.1 WHY SMART GRID FOR UETCL To transform the UETCL grid into a modern smart grid that must: Be able to heal itself Motivate consumers to actively participate in operations of the grid Resist attack Provide high quality and security of supply that will save money wasted from outages Accommodate/integrate all generation and storage options(Solar, Wind Enable electricity markets to flourish Enable higher penetration of intermittent power generation sources Run more efficiently
7.2 THE KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR SMART GRID IN UETCL The key drivers to successful implementation of smart grid in UETCL include; Optic fiber infrastructure, OPGW backbone Embracing of the TCP/IP platform Government Support Review of the Electricity act Cross Sectorial awareness of the “smart grid movement” Availability of funds
7.3 UETCL SMART GRID FOCUS AREAS Below are the areas to be focused upon as UETCL develops its grid into a modern smart grid;
Wide area monitoring and control Information and communication integration Grid management
5 GIS = Geographical Information System
6 WIS = Way leaves Information System
7 ERP = Enterprise Resource Planning
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Renewable and distributed Energy Generation Management Transmission enhancement applications Advanced metering infrastructure generation integration Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
7.4 SMART STRATEGY FOR SMART GRID
There is need for taking a rigorous, structured approach to determine what technologies will deliver the most value to the utility and its customer base. It is about implementing the right mix of smart grid technologies that deliver the greatest direct (operational savings) and indirect (customer benefits, customer satisfaction, reliability) benefits for the utility.
UETCL Strategic Focus Smart Grid Objectives Area
Security of Power Supply To Create a toolbox of proven technical solutions and Regional Cooperation To successfully interface new and old designs To develop pathways to follow and milestones to target based on regional conditions.
Accelerated Grid To Establish shared technical standards and Infrastructure protocols Development To Identify the most important actions required to develop smart grid technologies and policies that help to attain nationwide energy goals.
Financial Sustainability Harmonizing regulatory and commercial frameworks
Robust Human Capital Increase understanding among a range of Development stakeholders of the nature, function, costs and benefits
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Efficient Business To develop and integrate information, computing Processes and telecommunication systems
TABLE 17:SMART STRATEGY FOR SMART GRID
7.5 UETCL SMART GRID MATURITY PLAN
Stage Years
202 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4 25
Exploring and Initiating
Functional Investing Integrating Cross functional Optimizing Enterprise Wide Innovating Next Wave of Improvement s TABLE 18:SMART GRID ROADMAP
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7.6 THE SMART GRID PROPOSED FOCUS AREAS AND THE ESTIMATED COSTS (THE FIRST 5 YEARS)
No Technology Area Hardware Systems and Software Current Situation Desired Current Situation Desired 000’000’1$ 1. Information A) Transmission A. Transmission Corporate Enterprise and communication PDH/SDH (STM1) SDH (STM16) website resource planning technology integration Power line carrier, DWDM Silo systems software(ERP), GPRS Fiber Citrix for Way leaves Microwave radios LTE mobile Information Fiber B. Access computing System B. Access E1 Dynamic website o RS232/V24 Ethernet Extranet o E1 (TCP/IP) Real time Grid o X21 C. IT H/W Monitoring Routers software to o Ethernet operational staff Servers L3 Switches Via SMS/Mail $ 4,000,000 2. Wide-area monitoring Old S/S have ABB propietry RP570 Old S/S to be upgraded and control and IEC 608705-101 protocol RTUs with IEC 608705-104 & Master station to New S/S has to IEC 61850 101 protocol RTUs be upgraded to add Substation (Substation Automation) New S/S to be applications/enhanc /IEC608705-101 protocols implemented with ements for Master station has RS232 IEC 61850 Automatic gateway (Substation Generation Interim Backup control Automation) and control(AGC) center (in progress) IEC 608705-104 Regional protocols Master station No Area control centres ICCP No regional inter centre enhancement connectivity Master station to EMS Power trading be upgraded to system ( TCP/IP gateway Readiness for (104 standard) regional Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 62 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
Complete power implementation trading) and staffing Area control centers starting with West Fully fledged Backup control Centres . 000’000’1$ 3 Power system Distance protection . protection Differential Feeder protection protection Transformer protection Busbar protection Fault location
000’000’1$ 4 Power metering Communication To be OEM Software Meter data . infrastructure interface is upgraded management system RS232/422 meters to meters with IP (MDMS)
/Ethernet interface
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000’000’1$ 5 Transmission Lines o Ordinary earth wire o OPGW (ITU OTDR
. (1000km) G.655 or emulation SW better) for o Radial lines all new
Substations lines Single transformer o Implement substations Rings (n-1)
o Transform ation (n-1) 000’000’1$ 6 Grid Surveillance o CCTV for some o CCTV for Surveillance Enhanced stations . all software Surveillance o Vandalism detection test H/W substations/towers software o Surveillance monitoring station o Access control for all sites
o Vandalism detection H/W(Infrared sensors, Vibration sensors, signals
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relayed over existing fiber infrastructure)
o Enhanced Surveillance monitoring station 000’000’1$ 7 GIS integration o Arc GIS Server (1) o Arc GIS Server o Limited o Adequate Arc GIS Clients (2) (Virtual) Licensing . o licensing o Arc FM UT o GIS still on pilot Server (Virtual) phase o GIS to be o Arc GIS Clients (30) o 30% of current rolled out Transmission line companywide for uploaded Grid management o 80% of substations data 100% of Tx uploaded to GIS o lines and o Developing sector Geo substations data database with Umeme, REA, uploaded to GIS MEMD o Expand GIS collaboration
TABLE 19:SMART GRID FOCUS AREAS AND BUDGET
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7.7 CAPACITY BUILDING
No. Course /Activity Name Institution Estimated Cost (USD)
1. Smart Grid Technology Bench Marking ABB Sweden
ESKOM South Africa 120,000
Statnett 2. Substation Automation ABB University Switzerland 160,000
3. ERP Software Project Management OEM Training Centre– USA/Canada 100,000
4. Oracle 11g Database management Software Technologies – UK 100,000
5. Geographical Information System Arc GIS - Germany 120,000
6. SDH/DWDM Technologies ETISALAT, UAE 100,000
7. Power Market Analysis ABB Sweden 100,000
ESKOM South Africa
Statnett
Total 800,000
TABLE 20:CAPACITY BUILDING BUDGET Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 66 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
7.8 SUMMARY BUDGET
No. Item Duration Cost (USD)
1. Feasibility Study 12 Months 800,000
2. Implementation of Smart grid 5 Years 29,500,000
3. Capacity Building 2 Years 800,000
Grand Total 31,100,000
TABLE 21:SMART GRID SUMMARY BUDGET
7.9 CONCLUSION AND RECEOMMENDATIONS
7.9.1CONCLUSION
A hybrid of ERP and GIS smart grid systems typically contain a comprehensive set of utility specific functionality in line with company’s requirements in the areas of project management, grid maintenance and operations, materials management, budgeting, accounting and reporting, and human capital management. Integrating smart grid technologies (including GIS) with the ERP shall go a long way to address the complex requirements of effective UETCL asset management.
7.9.1 RECOMMENDATIONS
Smartgrid workgroup formulation with clear mandate UETCL Smartgrid work group Energy sector smartgrid work group Legal framework and policy guidelines to be revisited to incorporate smartgrid opportunities and consequences Set up smartgrid demonstration centres and pilot projects Organize an annual smartgrid conference/exhibition/demonstration
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8 DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS 2012 – 2014(BID/PMA MODEL)
8.1 INTRODUCTION The BID/PMA Model is a dispatch optimization software tool. It calculates the optimal dispatch of power plants in the grid to meet the system demand at the least possible cost, within constraints such as the allowed water discharges, the available generation capacities, minimum reservoir levels, etc. The BID/PMA Model is presently being used to guide the dispatch of the Bujagali-Nalubaale/Kiira cascaded hydro power plants. The model was also been used to optimize and analyze present and future demand against supply balance for year 2014-2030 and to assess the impact of not carrying out the planned grid investment projects on the demand and supply balance in 2014.
8.2 INPUTS TO THE BID/PMA MODEL: The main inputs to the model includes Energy consumption and demand curve per region. Available capacity of power plants in the grid. Efficiency data of thermal power plants. The water release rule. The energy conversion factors of main hydro plants.
FIGURE 12:INPUTS TO BID/PMA MODEL
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8.3 MAIN ASSUMPTIONS
FIGURE 13:LOAD FORCAST ASSUMPTIONS-BID
FIGURE 14:GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS-BID
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FIGURE 15:TRANSMISSION ASSUMPTIONS-BID
8.4 BID MODELLING RESULTS
FIGURE 16:ANNUAL GENERATION RESULTS-BID
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FIGURE 17:SUPPLY/DEMAND ON A WEEKLY BASIS-BID
FIGURE 18:HOURLY GENERATION AND DEMAND AND TRADE-BID
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FIGURE 19:HOURLY TRADE WITH AND WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS-BID
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FIGURE 20: GENERATION FROM HPPS-BID
FIGURE 21:RESTRICTED EXPORTS AND IDLE HYDROPOWER (2020)-BID
FIGURE 22:TRANSMISSION LINE UTILIZATION 2030 - BID
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FIGURE 23:ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO - HIGH CASE –BID
FIGURE 24: DEMAND MET WHILE FULFILING EXPORT COMMITMENTS –BID
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FIGURE 25:ELECTRICITY TARIFFS
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9 NDP SCENARIO
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9.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS The National Development Plan is intended to improve the country’s competitiveness and foster accelerated socio-economic transformation of Ugandan society from a predominantly peasant status to middle class status
9.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS
Electricity per Capita Consumption raised from 75kWh (2010) to 674kWh by 2015 Rural Electrification raised to 20% by 2015 Generation capacity shall be increased from 600MW to 3800MW by 2015. System losses shall be reduced to 16% by 2015. The forecast growth rate for the country is 3.5% per annum on average between 2008 and 2030. The 2011 mid-year population of Uganda is estimated at 32.9 million.8 Export potential is assumed to be as presented in Table below. Market 2011-2015 2015 - 2025
Tanzania 20-40 MW 40MW
Kenya 4-50MW 50-200MW
D.R. Congo 2-30MW 50MW
Rwanda 2 50 MW
Sudan -- 50MW
TABLE 22:PROJECTED EXPORT POTENTIAL (MW)-NDP CASE
GDP growth rate9
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014- 2015
Overall GDP growth 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5
TABLE 23:GDP GROWTH PROJECTION-NDP CASE
8 Source: UBOS – 2011 Statistical Abstract 9 Source: NDP Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 77 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
9.1.2 DEMAND AND GENERATION BALANCE
The charts below illustrate the growth outlook of demand and generation capacity.
Demand-Supply: NDP Scenario 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Power (MW) 1000 Years 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
supply Demand (MW)
FIGURE 26: DEMAND-SUPPLY: NDP SCENARIO
Observations from the Demand –Supply Balance
2013: A deficit of 38MW is observed. Mitigation: Importation of 38MW from Kenya 2014: A deficit of 241MW is observed. Mitigation: Acceleration of Refinery HFO and Gas generation plant
9.1.3 EXISTING AND PROPOSED GENERATION RESOURCES
Item No. Plant Capacity (MW) 1 AgagoI,II,III 88 2 Electromaxx I 18 3 Electromaxx II 32 4 Nalubaale 180 5 Kiira 200 6 Albartros 50 7 Jacobsen-Namanve 50 8 Kilembe Mines Limited (KML) 5 9 Kasese Cobalt Co. Ltd. (KCCL) 9.5 10 Kakira Sugar Ltd 12 11 Kikagati Power Company Ltd 16 12 Eco Power (Ishasha) 6.5 Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited 78 Grid Development Plan 2014– 2030
13 Buseruka 9 14 Bugoye 13 15 Mpanga 18 16 Kinyara 4.5 17 Namugoga Solar 50 18 Kabaale & Refinery 53 19 Taylor Biomass Energy Ltd 40 20 Bujagali 250 21 Isimba 130 22 Karuma 600 23 Mini hydros 200 24 Solar Generation 200 25 Geothermal 300 26 Co-generation (Biomass) 150 27 Peat (Kabale) 100 28 Ayago 600 29 Oriang 400 30 Nuclear 1000 31 TOTAL (MW) 4784.5 TABLE 24:EXISTING AND PROPOSED ENEGY SOURCES-NDP CASE
9.1.4 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM INVESTMENTS
The system expansion and investment plan presented under the Base case scenario with development of power evacuation lines from the proposed power generation plants and changes as proposed in the system analysis below are sufficient to meet the transmission requirements of the NDP scenario. A system analysis was carried out and below are the recommendations resulting from the analysis.
9.2 RECOMMENDATIONS Implement the grid investments recommended in Base case scenario 2014-2030 Up rate transmission voltage of the central and western transmission lines to 400kV with corresponding increase in transformation capacities at the existing substations.
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10 ELECTRICITY FOR ALL SCENARIO
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10.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS
10.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS
Uganda’s Population is expected to increase from the current 32 million to 54.49 million by 2025. Average Energy Consumption per capita: 3300kWh/person/ year by 2025 Diversity factor approx. 83% Installed Generation Capacity: >17,000MW by 2025 Increased oil and gas power generation Introduction of new power generation technologies e.g. nuclear power, pumped storage, wind, solar and geothermal Increased power imports from neighboring grids. The economy will mainly be driven by the industrial sector. New industrial parks will be developed in areas like Amuria, Nakasongola The transport sector will utilize electricity as the primary energy e.g. trains Increased street lighting
10.1.2 DEMAND FORECAST
The demand forecast was based on the population projection and the per capita consumption target. Starting with the current population, using the population growth rates per districts, the demand forecast for each district was determined. The forecasts per districts were further disaggregated into percentage contributions per sector based on historical observation and regional benchmarks. In order to achieve the 2025 target, the coincident peak demand is estimated to be 20,513MW. The average peak demand for the entire power system is estimated at 17,000MW which is equivalent to per capita consumption of 3,300 kWh.
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Benchmarking: Electricity Consumption percentages per Sector10
Benchmark (1998) 2008 2025
Sector South Africa Egypt Uganda Uganda
Industrial 36% 44% 60% 65% Commercial 5% 3% 13.85% 14%
Residential 24.4% 24% 26% 10%
Mining 7% ‐ ‐ 4%
Transport 23% 22% ‐ 4%
Agriculture 3.4% 1% ‐ 2% Others (Street lighting) 1.2% 7% 0.15% 1%
Note: For 2025, Industrial sector comprises of large (40%) and medium (25%) industrial.
TABLE 25: ELECTRICITY CONSUPTION PER CATEGORY 2025
Appendix A.8 presents the detailed demand forecast for this scenario.
10.1.3 PROPOSED GENERATION SOURCES
In order to meet the power requirements, it would be expected that all the hydro power generation potential in Uganda would have to be developed and optimized. New technologies would have to be introduced together with energy imports. Table 26: generation potential
Resource Capacity (MW)
Renewable energy 5,300 Imports (Regional Power Pool) 3,200 Thermal (Gas CCGT) 3,000 Thermal (HFO) 3,000 Others( e.g. Nuclear) 3,000 Total 17,800
TABLE 26: GENERATION POTENTIAL
10 Note: Higher percentages do not mean more consumption in cross country comparison
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Development of the load and the generation capacities is a gradual process. Considering the timelines, it is necessary to have mechanisms to fast track the development of the various projects.
Development of the generation resources will be coupled with development of power evacuation lines. Consequently, to deliver the power to the load centers, new EHV transmission lines will have to be constructed simultaneously.
The table below shows the preliminary outlook of the generation scenario and evacuations/ interconnections that will have to be constructed by 2025.
Type / Power Station Capacity Interconnection from Plant (MW) 1.0 Geothermal / Albertine 450 400kV DCST‐Quadruple Albertine Nuclear plant via Nkenda –Mbarara – Masaka to Kawanda 2.0 Solar & Wind/ Kaabong 500 220kV DCST Kabong ‐ Moroto ‐ Opuyo 220kV DCST Kabong ‐ Nimule 220kV DCST Karuma – Nimule 3.0 Imports / Kenya‐Ethiopia 1,000 400kV DCST bundled Lessos ‐ Tororo 400kV DCST‐Quadruple Tororo ‐ Namanve 4.0 Imports / D.R. Congo 2,000 500kV‐DC Inga ‐ Nkenda 5.0 Imports / Rwanda 200 400kV DCST Mirama ‐ Mbarara 6.0 Gas – CCGT Albertine A 1500 (2X750) 400kV DCST‐Quadruple From Albertine region to ‐ Nakasongola 7.0 HFO / Albertine A 1500 (2X750) 400kV DCST‐Quadruple Albertine region to Nakasongola 8.0 Nuclear / Lake Albert 2000 400kV DCST‐Quadruple Albertine Nuclear plant via Nkenda –Mbarara – Masaka to Kawanda – Already considered in geothermal in item no.1 400kV DCST Nakasongola ‐ Kawanda 9.0 Gas – CCGT Albertine B 1,500 (2X750) Mputa – Hoima – Kafu 400kV DCST‐ Quadruple. Karuma – Kafu – Nakasongola ‐ Kawanda Second line (400kV DCST Quadruple) Karuma – Lira – Opuyo – Tororo second line , 400kV DCST bundled 10. HFO / Albertine B 1,500 (2x750) 400kV DCST‐Bundle Nakasongola‐ Kawanda 11. Renewable Energy 4350 400kV DCST Ayago ‐ Karuma ‐ Kafu – Kawanda (Already (Isimba, Kiba, Karuma, Ayago, planned in the base case) Murchison) 12. HFO / Albertine B 1,500 (2x750) 400kV DCST‐Bundle Nakasongola‐ Kawanda
13. Peat/ Kabale 600 Kabaale – Mirama ‐220kV DCST Mbarara‐Masaka 400kV Masaka‐Kabulasoke 400kV Note: 132kV distribution lines will be constructed from the main substations to various load centers PROJECTED TOTAL 17,000
TABLE 27: GENERATION EXPANSION AND EVACUATION PLAN
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Appendix A.2‐3 presents the Grid Investment costs relating to the Electricity for All Scenario. Appendix A7.3 shows a graphical outlook of the grid when the system grows to the magnitude discussed in this scenario.
10.2 RECOMMENDATIONS From the above studies and analysis, the following recommendations are made for consideration. • The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development should give policy guidance to ensure harmonized planning within the energy sector (generation, transmission, distribution and rural electrification). • Review other Government Policies e.g. Energy policy, transport, housing, agriculture, industry etc. to align them with the Electricity for all by 2025 vision. • The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development through the National Planning Authority should host a stakeholders workshop to harmonize the planning process for the various sectors • It will be necessary to commission at least 1,200MW of generated power per annum starting from today. • Government should put in place policies that enhance socio‐economic development of the entire population to address the issue of electricity affordability.
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11 VISION 2040
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11.1 LOAD AND GENERATION PROGNOSIS
11.1.1 ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS
Uganda’s Population • expected to increase from the current 34.9 million to 60.4 million by 2040
Average Energy Consumption per capita • 3,668kWh/person/ year by 2040
Access to National Grid • 80%
Installed Generation Capacity • 41,738MW by 2040
TABLE 28:ASSUMPTIONS FOR DEMAND SUPPLY PROGNOSIS-VISION 2040
11.1.2 ASSUMPTIONS ON AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES BY 2040
Energy Estimated Capacity (MW)
Hydro 4,500 Mini-hydro 1,500 Solar 5000 Nuclear 24000 Biomass 17000 Geothermal 450 Peat 800 Thermal 4300 TABLE 29: ASSUMPTIONS ON AVAILABLE ENERGY RESPURCES BY 2040
11.1.3 VISION 2040 CASE GDP FORECAST BY 2040
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP 22,838 25,198 27,801 30,672 33,304 36,162 39,264 42,633 46,291 50,156 Growth 2.8% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 GDP 54,344 58,882 63,799 69,126 74,808 80,957 87,612 94,814 102,607 110,888 Growth 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% Year 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 GDP 119,837 129,507 139,959 151,253 163,096 175,867 189,637 204,486 220,497 Growth 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
TABLE 30: VISION 2040 CASE GDP FORECAST (UGX BILLION)
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11.1.4 DEMAND FORECAST VISION 2040
Vision 2040 Year Maximum Demand(MW) % Demand Growth
2015 2,679 - 2016 3,233 21% 2017 3,811 18% 2018 4,370 15% 2019 4,941 13% 2020 5,521 12% 2021 6,112 11% 2022 6,711 10% 2023 7,318 9% 2024 7,933 8% 2025 8,554 8% 2026 9,180 7% 2027 9,811 7% 2028 10,445 6% 2029 11,083 6% 2030 11,869 7% 2031 12,678 7% 2032 13,507 7% 2033 14,359 6% 2034 15,231 6% 2035 16,126 6% 2036 17,042 6% 2037 17,979 5% 2038 18,938 5% 2039 19,918 5% 2040 20,920 5% TABLE 31: DEMAND FORECAST VISION 2040
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11.2 RECOMMENDATIONS From the above studies and analysis, the following recommendations are made for consideration. • The Ugandan 2040 Vision case methodology differs from the other cases in order to be able to match the targeted per capita consumption levels of the reference document. These targets yield very ambitious demand levels and would require a complete transformation of the sector and massive levels of investment in the next 25 years up to 2040. • The forecasts presented in the above table require substantial amounts of investments in generation capacity in order to be realized. Nuclear power plants, given their base load generation profiles, will play a key role in the future investment portfolio allowing for the supply of reliable base load energy that can be complemented with other technologies in order to adapt to the future load profile of the country. These investments will be enormous for the case Ugandan 2040 Vision case and will require a complete transformation of the Ugandan electricity system. • Review other Government Policies e.g. Energy policy, transport, housing, agriculture, industry etc. to align them with the 2040 vision. • The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development should give policy guidance to ensure harmonized planning within the energy sector (generation, transmission, distribution and rural electrification).
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proposed mitigation measures. Mitigation measures will further be discussed in the feasibility studies of the individual projects.
RISK ASSESSMENT MITIGATION MEASURES
Strategic and Business GoU to attract potential private a) Failure to adequately commit participation in the projects and invest in the grid due to Conduct Feasibility Studies for the limitations /budget High transmission lines and substations. constraints. These to include designs, EIA and SEA. b) Failure to obtain alternative Transmission line and substation financing for capital and grid projects to be presented to GoU for investment to meet future soliciting of financing. energy/power demands To consider applying Cost recovery c) Un-favorable forms of tariffs financing could put the Hard currency should be used for company in a poor financial settlement of transaction in the RPT situation The load growth patterns should d) Uncertainty on currency constantly be watched and load exchanges forecasts adjusted accordingly. e) Possibility of not meeting RPT projects should be implemented future demand. under the established initiatives i.e., EAPMP, EAPP and NBI. Environmental and Social Feasibility studies should be conducted Risks and detailed EIA and SIA to include Delayed implementation of High mitigation measures in line with NEMA projects as a result of ; and potential financier’s guidelines and a) Social all stakeholders should be consulted. b) Environmental Economic analysis should be conducted c) Political in the Feasibility Studies d) Legal Security issues should be addressed in e) Economic the social Environmental studies f) Security g) RAP implementation Use technologies extensively proven in Technical Risks other parts of the world a) Increasing skill gaps due to UETCL to be trained for proper operation c) Possibility of Equipment UETCL staff to participate in Factory under sizing Acceptance Tests to ensure quality of equipment supplied Project Implementation Risks Timely procure Consultancy Services for a) Cost overruns Project Supervision. b) Engineering Contracts to include penalty clauses to c) Design Low- compensate or time delays d) Construction Medium Ensure that contractor goes for e) Commissioning insurance coverage f) Handover Provide for variation order clause to cater unavoidable risks Project intended for IPP to be packaged together with the Hydropower Project UETCL counterpart staff to be involved in all aspects from its inception to the commissioning stage. Hydropower plants should be planned Operational Risks basing on firm capacity a) Limitation in Hydrology Steel tubular poles should be used b) Vandalism Medium- instead of steel lattice towers which are high vulnerable to vandalism Use of AAAC conductors instead of ACSR conductors Local leaders at LCI level are to be engaged to provide security to the lines in their areas where the lines traverse. TABLE 32:RISK ANALYSIS
12 STAKEHOLDERS
Due to the nature of the projects and the environment in which UETCL operates, identification of key stakeholders is a prerequisite for the successful implementation of this Grid Development Plan. Further still, the key stake holders need to create an environment conducive for the survival of UETCL as a self sustaining organization without collapsing under the debt burden. Below are some of the stakeholders and their roles. Stakeholder Role Government of Uganda (GoU) • Sector policy and strategies • Provide counterpart funding for activities like RAP implementation • Power sector contribution to GoU wider objectives • Source for funding from development partners Distributors (Umeme & others) • Power sales Agreements (PSA’s) • Wheeling Agreements (WA’s) • Provide data regarding consumers Electricity Regulatory Authority • Issue licenses • Approve budgets • Approve bulk supply tariff Rural Electrification Agency • Provide data on future rural electrification projects • Facilitates implementation of rural electrification program Regional utilities • Power Exchange Agreements Independent Power Producers • Generate and sell power under Power Purchase Agreements Funding agencies • Project identification • Project appraisal • Approval of financing • Project supervision Government Valuer • Approval of RAP costs and budget • Provision of properties compensation amounts. Public • Way leaves acquisition • Land acquisition NEMA • Approval of ESIA report • Ensuring compliance with environmental conservation guidelines NFA • Approval of ESIA report • Wayleaves acquisition UWA • Approval of ESIA report • Wayleaves acquisition UIA • Information on upcoming demand TABLE 33:STAKEHOLDERS
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APPENDICES
11.3 A.1 DEMAND - SUPPLY BALANCE AND PROGNOSIS
11.4 A.2 GIP IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND SCHEDULE
11.5 A.3 UETCL TRANSMISSION LINES
Line Nominal Length No. of Type In Line Line Voltage (km) structures service Age Rating (kV) Date (yrs) (MVA) Kabulasoke - Masaka West 132 60 338 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Kabulasoke - Nkonge 132 78.5 422 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Kampala North - Mutundwe 132 10.2 36 Steel tower 1959 55 79.1 Lugogo - Kampala North (1) 132 5.7 25 Steel tower 1997 21 73.2 Lugogo - Kampala North (2) 5.7 21 73.2 Lugogo - Mutundwe (1) 132 10.2 46 Steel tower 1997 21 180 Lugogo - Mutundwe (2) 10.2 46 2008 6 180 Masaka West - Kyaka 132 84.5 262 Steel tower 1994 20 73.8 Masaka West - Mbarara North 132 130.5 407 tower 1995 19 151.6 Mutundwe - Kabulasoke 132 84.7 476 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Nkonge - Nkenda 132 138.9 760 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Nalub – Namanve 132 56.3 206 Steel tower 1954 60 147 Namanve-Kampala North 12.6 Nalub - Lugazi 66 35.2 104 Steel tower 1963 51 10.6 Nalub- Lugogo (1) 132 70.2 243 Steel tower 1998 16 180.6 Nalub - Lugogo (2) 70.2 0 16 180.6 Nalub - Tororo (1) 132 116.8 207 Steel tower 1954 60 78 Nalub - Tororo (2) 116.8 0 51 78 Opuyo – Lira 132 141.2 607 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Tororo - Kenya (1) 132 27 28 Steel tower 1954 60 78 Tororo - Kenya (2) 27 0 60 78 Tororo – Opuyo 132 119.5 775 wooden 1963 51 63.1 Bujagali Tororo (1) 132 5.3 23 Steel 2011 3 Bujagali Tororo (2) 5.3 0 Tower 3 Bujagali Nalubaale (1) 132 8.4 35 Steel Tower 2011 3 Bujagali Nalubaale (2) 8.4 0 3 Bujagali Kawanda (1) 220 75.0 212 Steel Tower 2011 3 Bujagali Kawanda (2) 75.0 0 3 Kawanda Mutundwe (1) 132 17.3 72 Steel Tower 2011 3 Kawanda Mutundwe (2) 17.3 0 3
11.6 A.4 UETCL SUBSTATION TRANSFORMATION CAPACITY
SUBSTATION TRANSFORMER MAKE/ TYPE YEAR OF MVA VOLTAGE VECTOR MANUFACTURE RATIO GROUP CENTRAL REGION NAMANVE Transformer 1 Crompton Greaves 2007 32/40 132/33kV YNynOd1 Transformer 2 Crompton Greaves 2007 32/40 132/33kV YNynOd1 Transformer 3 Crompton Greaves 2008 32/40 132/33kV YNynOd1 LUGOGO Transformer 1 ABB Kraft 1997 32/40 132/11kV YNynO Transformer 6 32/40 132/33kV YNynO Transformer 3 ABB 32/40 132/33kV YNynO Transformer 5 Elektro Putere- 1991 32/40 132/11kV YNynO (d) Romania
MUTUNDWE Transformer 1 Elektro Putere 1991 32/40 132/33kV YNynO (d) Transformer 2 ABB 1995 32/40 132/33kV YNynO Transformer 3 Trafostar 2003 15/20 132/11kV YNynO (d) Transformer 4 ABB Powertech 2003 15/20 132/11kV YNynO (d)
KAMPALA Transformer 1 ABB 1995 32/40 132/33kV YNynO NORTH Transformer 3 EMCO 2006 32/40 132/11kV YNynO (d) Transformers Transformer 4 EMCO 2006 32/40 132/11kV YNynO (d) Transformers KAWAALA Hawker Siddeley 1972 132/11kV Yy0d1 Hawker Siddeley 1972 132/11kV Yy0d1 WESTERN REGION MASAKA Transformer 1 Elektro Putere 1991 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0+d11 WEST Transformer 2 ABB 2007 20 132/33kV YNyn0+d MBARARA NORTH Transformer 1 Crompton 1963 15/20 132/33kV Yy0d11 Parkinson Transformer 2 ABB 2007 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0+d NKONGE Transformer 1 Ferranti 1970 7.5 132/33kV YNyn0 KAHUNGYE Transformer 1 JSHP China 2010 20 132/33kV YNy0+d11 Transformer 2 JSHP China 2010 20 132/33kV YNy0+d11 NKENDA
Transformer 1 1991 15/20 132/33kV YNy0(d) Transformer 2 EMCO India 2003 15/20 132/33kV YNy0(d) EASTERN REGION LUGAZI Transformer 1 ABB 2007 14 66/11 Dyn11 Transformer 2 ABB 2007 14 66/11 Dyn11 TORORO Transformer 1 Brush 1988 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0 Transformer 2 Hawker Siddeley 1985 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0 Spare Crompton Greaves 2007 32/40 132/33kV Transformer NORTHERN REGION OPUYO Transformer 1 Pauwels Trafo 1993 10 132/33kV YNyn0(d11) Spare Crompton Greaves 2007 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0d11 Transformer LIRA Transformer 1 Hackbridge 1974 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0d11 Hewittic-Easun Transformer 2 ABB 2007 15/20 132/33kV YNyn0d1
A.5 MAPS
A.5.1 UGANDA POWER SYSTEM PRESENT AND FUTURE NETWORK
A.5.2 EAST AFRICAN POWER SYSTEM
A.5.3 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN SCENARIO (NDP)
A.5.4 VISION 2040