Crop Yield Forecasting Methods and Early Warning Systems
Review of Crop Yield Forecasting Methods and Early Warning Systems Bruno Basso1, Davide Cammarano, Elisabetta Carfagna 1Department of Geological Sciences Michigan State University, USA Abstract The following review paper presents an overview of the current crop yield forecasting methods and early warning systems for the global strategy to improve agricultural and rural statistics across the globe. Different sections describing simulation models, remote sensing, yield gap analysis, and methods to yield forecasting compose the manuscript. 1. Rationale Sustainable land management for crop production is a hierarchy of systems operating in— and interacting with—economic, ecological, social, and political components of the Earth. This hierarchy ranges from a field managed by a single farmer to regional, national, and global scales where policies and decisions influence crop production, resource use, economics, and ecosystems at other levels. Because sustainability concepts must integrate these diverse issues, agricultural researchers who wish to develop sustainable productive systems and policy makers who attempt to influence agricultural production are confronted with many challenges. A multiplicity of problems can prevent production systems from being sustainable; on the other hand, with sufficient attention to indicators of sustainability, a number of practices and policies could be implemented to accelerate progress. Indicators to quantify changes in crop production systems over time at different hierarchical levels are needed for evaluating the sustainability of different land management strategies. To develop and test sustainability concepts and yield forecast methods globally, it requires the implementation of long-term crop and soil management experiments that include measurements of crop yields, soil properties, biogeochemical fluxes, and relevant socio-economic indicators.
[Show full text]