Hinds (Hekeao) Catchment Limit Setting Process Social Assessment

Report No. R14/83 ISBN 978-1-927314-50-0 (print) 978-1-927314-51-7 (web) 978-1-927314-52-4 (cd)

Report prepared for Environment Canterbury by Taylor Baines and Associates

August 2014

Report No. R14/83 ISBN 978-1-927314-50-0 (print) 978-1-927314-51-7 (web) 978-1-927314-52-4 (cd)

PO Box 345 Christchurch 8140 Phone (03) 365 3828 Fax (03) 365 3194

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Website: www.ecan.govt.nz Customer Services Phone 0800 324 636

This report represents advice to Environment Canterbury and any views, conclusions or recommendations do not represent Council policy. The information in this report, together with any other information, may be used by the Council to formulate resource management policies, e.g., in the preparation or review of regional plans.

Taylor Baines

Hinds (Hekeao) Catchment Limit Setting Process Social Assessment

Prepared by Nick Taylor, Wayne McClintock, Mike Mackay and Miria Goodwin1

Peer reviewed by Mark Fenton from Environmental and Behavioural Consultants

Taylor Baines and Associates

August 2014

1 Nick Taylor and Wayne McClintock from Taylor Baines and Associates, Mike Mackay from Lincoln University. Miria Goodwin from Environment Canterbury.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... i 1 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Objective of the assessment ...... 1 1.2 Assessment area ...... 1 1.3 ZC outcomes and technical indicators ...... 2 1.4 Data sources (baseline) ...... 2 1.5 Scenario assessment method ...... 2 2 Social profile (current state) of Hinds (Hekeao)catchment ...... 4 2.1 Introduction to the social profile ...... 4 2.2 Economy and employment ...... 4 2.3 People and communities ...... 7 2.4 Recreation in Hinds Catchment ...... 9 2.6 Stakeholder groups ...... 12 2.6 Summary and contextual issues ...... 13 3 Assessment of scenarios ...... 14 3.1 Drinking water wells and domestic supplies now and in the future at least meet national drinking water standard for E.Coli and nitrate ...... 14 3.2 Maintain existing flood control to protect small communities and farmland ...... 17 3.3 Economic growth in Hinds and Mayfield communities ...... 18 3.4 Enhanced social wellbeing of rural communities ...... 21 4 Assessment of the solutions package (ZIP Addendum) ...... 30 4.1 Drinking water ...... 31 4.2 Flood control ...... 32 4.3 Economic growth and social wellbeing ...... 33 4.4 Recreation ...... 33 4.5 Management of change ...... 35 5 Conclusions ...... 38 References ...... 39 List of Acronyms ...... 41 Attachment 1 Map of assessment area ...... 42 Attachment 2 Social outcomes, indicators and wellbeing elements ...... 43

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Executive Summary

This strategic social assessment is part of the limits setting process for the Hinds (Hekeao) catchment in Ashburton District. The process under the Ashburton Zone Committee is setting nutrient, flow and water allocation limits for the Hinds catchment through a sub-regional plan of the Land and Water Regional Plan. The Zone Committee has established a number of outcomes that they expect a sub-regional plan to achieve, including social-economic outcomes alongside, ecological and cultural outcomes. The social assessment is part of number of technical work streams managed by Environment Canterbury to support the planning process.

The social assessment is organised around a number of sub outcomes and technical indicators established by the Zone Committee. The interdisciplinary approach involved assessment of three primary scenarios by the social and other assessments: baseline, development and environmental scenarios. Information from the assessment was used in community workshops and Zone Committee meetings to develop a solutions package that eventually, with further deliberation, formed the basis for the Zip Addendum to the Land and Water Regional Plan.

The assessment includes a social profile of the catchment based on boundaries for demographic and other social statistics. The profile captures the current state of the Hinds Catchment, utilising historical data on recent trends but not including any land use changes beyond those that have already taken place. The social profile was updated throughout the planning process, recording wherever possible the views of local people and those aspects of the catchment that they value.

Key features of the catchment include its strong base of employment in the agricultural sector, with a mix of sectors including dairy farming, dairy support, arable and sheep and beef farming. This agricultural base was first made possible by extensive drainage systems in the lower catchment in particular over a century ago, and then, since the 1940s by the advent of large-scale irrigation made possible by water from the Rangitata River via the Rangitata Diversion Race and, more recently, by ground water irrigation. Growth in dairy farming is a particular feature of recent years. In the Hinds catchment (2011 baseline) there were 43, 870 ha of dairy and 10,820 ha of dairy support. This dairy farming takes place alongside 27,300 ha of arable farming and 55,600 ha of sheep and beef, with a very small amount of horticulture.

The population of the District and the catchment, including the settlements of Hinds and Mayfield, is growing, and becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. At the District level the population is also ageing. Population growth is driven by growth in employment in agriculture, particularly in dairy farming. Hinds catchment experienced strong population growth of 27.2 per cent from 2001 to 2013, and only Mayfield village did not grow faster than the national average. The growth in population supports school rolls and other services.

The Hinds River and associated lowland streams and drains are a local recreation resource and used to be a regional resource. Local people and fishers describe the river and some drains as having significant local recreational values for fishing and swimming in the past (middle of last century) and argue that this resource has declined significantly with longer periods of dry river bed and declining ecological conditions. The lower river retains few values as a trout fishery. The decline in recreational use of the river, streams and drains over recent years is very clear and cannot simply be

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attributed to fishers and other recreationists preferring other places, or to wider social changes such as changing attitudes to outdoor recreation.

The scenario analysis distinguished clear differences from a social perspective between the baseline scenario (the current state into the future), an economic development scenario (with substantial new irrigated land use) and an environmental scenario. None of these scenarios satisfactorily meet all social outcomes and in many respects they fall short on their own. However, it is possible to distinguish positive aspects of each scenario and the Zone Committee brought these together into the solutions package and eventually the Zip Addendum.

Assessment of the package from a social perspective found that, as with the scenarios, it is difficult to meet all objectives from a social perspective. Further irrigation will bring economic benefits of employment, on and off farm, which in turn will drive benefits of additional income and additional population that flow into community wellbeing. These benefits to social well being are, however, potentially offset by further declines in the standard of drinking water in groundwater supplies, posing stress, risks and costs to households, particularly those with babies and young children. On its own, additional irrigation of 30,000 ha could lead to a decline in water quality and steam ecological outcomes and degrade further the local recreational resource.

However, in addition to extra irrigated land area, a move to advanced farm mitigation in the solutions package, along with additional irrigation water and managed aquifer recharge, has evident benefits for the ecology of the river, streams and drains and these will be enhanced further by selective local initiatives such as stream restoration. These ecological benefits, along with additional flows, will enhance recreational use and this is an important beneficial outcome of the final package.

The social assessment therefore concludes that the full solutions package (Zip Addendum) should bring net positive outcomes to social and economic wellbeing. With the addition of a change management approach, designed to minimise negative social effects and enhance positive ones, the solutions package should make a substantial contribution to enhancing the social and economic wellbeing of the people of the Hinds River catchment and Ashburton District.

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1 Introduction

1.1 Objective of the assessment The Hinds (Hekeao) Catchment (the catchment) forms the southern part of Ashburton District in mid Canterbury, New Zealand. The social analysis reported here was part of the process for setting nutrient, flow and water allocation limits for the Hinds catchment through a sub-regional plan of the Land and Water Regional Plan (LWRP). The limit-setting process was undertaken by the Ashburton Zone Committee (ZC)2 under the auspices of the Canterbury Regional Council (ECan) as part of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. 3 The ZC established a number of outcomes that they expect a sub-regional plan to achieve. These outcomes include social-economic outcomes alongside, ecological and cultural outcomes.

Therefore the process for setting limits involved an integrated approach that combined technical analysis and stakeholder engagement through the Zone Committee (ZC) and focus groups. The social analysis was one of a number of technical work streams that contributed to the planning process. These workstreams included economic analysis4 and cultural analysis.5 The objective was to work alongside the other technical analysis and provide an integrated assessment of scenarios. This combined technical input then became part of the discussions that took place in the engagement process involving the ZC and focus group discussions on land-use scenarios, and later the proposed policy package.

1.2 Assessment area The assessment area is the catchment boundary defined by ECan (see Attachment 1, map). The area includes some low foothills but is dominated by a large lowland area comprising the Hinds Plains. The catchment is approximately bounded by the mountain-fed Ashburton River to the North and Rangitata River to the south. In addition to the Hinds River (Hekeao), which bisects the catchment, there are over 30 small water bodies (streams and drains), particularly evident in the lower Hinds Plains below State Highway (SH) 1.6 A number of these water bodies drain directly over low cliffs to the coast through small ravines that are known locally as dongas. The Rangitata Diversion Race (RDR) runs across the west of the catchment delivering water to community irrigation schemes in the catchment and further north. The ZC recognises that the water bodies of the catchment (including the RDR and the water it brings in from the Rangitata) are interrelated.

From a social and local economic perspective it is not always possible to separate the Hinds catchment from the nearby major town (Ashburton) or the wider Ashburton District in which the catchment is located.7 Much of the available data is at the District level, and important services such as health, secondary education, retail, sports facilities and other services are delivered in Ashburton town. Hence, while its main focus is on the people and communities of the catchment, the social profile includes some District data as well.

2 A joint Committee of Environment Canterbury and the Ashburton District Council to improve water quality in the Hinds Plains in line with the National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management. The results of their work are known as a “ZIP Addendum”, which provides a policy and planning framework for the Hinds Catchment within the larger zone. 3 http://ECan.govt.nz/get-involved/canterburywater/committees/ashburton/Pages/default.aspx 4 Upananda (2014) 5 Tipa and Associates (2014). 6 Meredith and Lessard (2014) describe the catchment and identify ecological values for waterways throughout the catchment. 7 For context map see http://www.citypopulation.de/php/newzealand-admin.php?adm1id=063

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1.3 ZC outcomes and technical indicators Outcomes selected by the ZC for the Hinds catchment were considered from a social perspective with the following outcomes considered by the social assessment team to be the most relevant for this analysis.

• Drinking water wells and domestic supplies now and in the future at least meet the national drinking water standard for E.Coli and nitrate. • Maintain existing flood control to protect small communities and farmland. • Economic growth in Hinds and Mayfield communities. • Enhanced social wellbeing of rural communities. • Sustainable, diverse and productive land use. • Water quality in drains/streams is improved. • Protect and enhance indigenous fish and habitats in lowland streams and foothills. • Protect and enhance habitat for trout. • Retain unique features and biodiversity of dongas. • Enhanced recreational opportunities on waterways (e.g. fishing, picnicking, tourism).

Technical indicators were identified by the team for each outcome based on the team’s experience with social analysis of other catchments, including Hurunui and Selwyn Waihora, and also comparative case material cited in this report. A full list of outcomes and indictors, linked to established social well being elements, is available in Attachment 2.

1.4 Data sources (baseline) The baseline profile (Section 2 below) was developed from a wide range of data sources in relation to the technical indicators, comprising • published information • official statistics, including the census • other documentary sources including local histories and manuscripts • interviews and discussions conducted in the assessment area • discussions at public meetings in Hinds and Mayfield and at four Community Workshops in Hinds.

Data sources are identified throughout in footnotes.

The social profile summarises the current state of the Hinds Catchment Historical data are also discussed and, where available, trends (over the last ten years in particular) are described, to provide a picture of recent changes in the catchment (and to consider what the catchment might look like if there are no further major land use changes from this point).

Updating of the social profile continued throughout the planning process, recording wherever possible the views of local people and those aspects of the catchment that they value, alongside the different technical analyses.

1.5 Scenario assessment method Environment Canterbury used an inter-disciplinary, scenario approach to assist the ZC and communities in the catchment to consider the opportunities for different approaches and options for managing water and the effects these would generate. In brief, the scenarios were:

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1. A baseline scenario – the effects of the current state (including current irrigation consents) extended long term 2. A development scenario- based around additional irrigation emphasising economic outcomes 3. An environmental scenario - based on exploring management options to deliver environmental outcomes as the main focus. 4. A potential options package - based on providing the community with a range of mitigations. These were then deliberated and discussed through community meetings, workshops and zone committee discussions in developing the proposed solutions package (ZIP Addendum).

The scenarios are described in more detail in section 3, where they were also assessed from a number of technical perspectives, including social, economic and cultural.

Social assessment of scenarios used comparative cases to understand likely social change, drawing on New Zealand research and case studies of the social change that is typically driven by land-use and associated changes in farm systems, farm ownership and community demographics with irrigation. The scenario assessments used baseline information in conjunction with comparative case data from the Hurunui, Central Plains/Selwyn, Waitaki and Opuha irrigation areas.

The assessments also utilised information from economic and farm management analysis (especially likely combinations and maps of land use activity). Also relevant was the analysis of drinking water quality and the cultural assessment work. The recreation assessment drew on the analysis and narratives developed to assess the effects of scenarios and policy proposals on stream ecology, and surface and groundwater quality.

It should be emphasised that comparison cases are only indicators of social change and local conditions need to be considered alongside these cases. Key informant interviews were therefore used along with discussions at community workshops to investigate the potential social effects of each scenario and later the solutions package. Discussions of the scenarios and policy packages at the focus groups provided important information for refining the social assessments.

From a social perspective, each of the identified ZC outcomes identified in Section 1.3 was assessed in this report (and also by the other technical assessments) using the following scale, with the results consolidated in an overview report by the leader of the technical programme: 8

Met Very likely to Likely to be Unlikely to be Very Unlikely Not met be met met met to be met

The assessment of each scenario was organised, as reported below, according to the ZC outcomes and their associated technical indicators as listed in Attachment 2. The technical indicators were a mix of qualitative and quantitative data that guided assessment of each outcome.

It is important to note that for the scenario assessments, in order to maintain a consistent approach, it was assumed that no social mitigation or enhancement measures would be applied to the identified effects. These measures were later considered as part of the “solutions” package. Change management would tend to push assessments towards the positive end of the assessment scale (ie, “met”).

8 See Bower (2014) for further description of the scenarios and the full technical assessment.

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2 Social profile (current state) of Hinds (Hekeao)catchment

2.1 Introduction to the social profile The social profile reflects a wide range of social and cultural values present in the catchment and the wider district. These values are also the subject of complementary technical areas such as economics, ecology, water quality and cultural assessment. It is important to note that values vary between people and groups, and change over time as a result of current conditions. Major value areas examined in this profile include those associated with: • the productive and consumptive uses of water that provide a reliable irrigation, drinking and stock water supply, enabling people to gain economic livelihoods from different farming systems9 • the people and communities of the catchment, their identities, ways of life and historical and cultural linkages to water 10 • the recreational, ecological and intrinsic values of rivers, streams, groundwater and drains, and the cultural and aesthetic values associated with them.

2.2 Economy and employment In a rural area such as the Hinds Catchment, the economy drives employment, which in turn influences the size and composition of the population, its growth, and the services and community life that sustain the social and economic wellbeing of residents. As shown in Table 1, the employment base of the catchment is heavily dependent on primary production compared to the district as a whole and especially compared to New Zealand.

Table1: Percentages of residents employed by industry in selected areas of Ashburton District - 2013 Area Agriculture, Manufacturing Wholesale, Professional, Education, forestry, Per cent retail, technical, health, fishing hospitality administrative social, Per cent Per cent Per cent recreation, arts Per cent Hinds Catchment 58.5 5.0 6.5 3.1 5.3 Hinds Village 32.2 10.2 16.9 6.8 11.9 Mayfield Village 42.8 3.6 3.6 - 7.1 (1) Methven 17.5 7.9 24.1 8.9 20.0 Township Ashburton Town 5.0 21.8 22.9 8.3 13.6 Ashburton 23.8 15.2 17.9 7.1 12.1 District New Zealand 6.2 9.4 19.9 16.5 19.4 Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: Data for Mayfield Village is incomplete due to the rounding of numbers by Statistics New Zealand to protect the confidentiality of the relatively small number of people who reside in the two mesh blocks.

While in recent years there has been very slow economic growth nationally, the Ashburton District has, however, performed comparatively well. Over 25 per cent of the gross domestic product of the Ashburton District in 2010 was generated by primary industries including agriculture, forestry and

9 Economic values are covered in the report by Upananda (2014). 10 Cultural values are covered in the report by Tipa and Associates (2014)

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fisheries.11 District agricultural production accounts for over 43 per cent of national arable production. Food processing and engineering are key contributors to the district’s economy, while there are also a large number of seed companies with cleaning, packing and distribution facilities. These include facilities located in Hinds village. The main sources of employment in the district are meat processing (11%), dairy farming (8%), sheep, beef and grain farming (6%) and support services for agriculture, forestry and fishing (4%). 12

Early agricultural development particularly in the lower reaches of the catchment depended on extensive drainage using a combination of open and tile drains.13 Prior to that time there were extensive wetlands, and many springs continued to feed into the Hinds River and the drains after the drainage system was completed. Crops in the early years included large areas of grain production and a range of other cropping activities, plus stock.

In recent years (particularly since the beginning of this century) growth in dairy farming has been a feature of the District (Figure 1), and of the Hinds catchment in particular. In 2003/04 the District had 181 herds, (693 average herd size) and by 2012/13 there were 356 herds (875 average herd size) with 228 owner/operators and 128 sharemilkers.14 The social effects of this rapid expansion in herd numbers, with herds increasing considerably in size at the same time, are discussed in more detail below.

Figure 1: Number of Dairy herds, Ashburton District 2003-2013

11 Agricultural exports from the district in 2007 were three and a half times higher than the New Zealand average on a population basis (see reference below). 12 Economic data from Ashburton District Council (2011b – there is no ‘2011a’ in the references?). Data refer to sectors of employment of district workers. 13 Drainage development continued until the 1940s, with responsibility for maintenance then shifting to the South Canterbury Catchment Board, which also undertook regular clearing of willows along the Hinds river (Baughan, 2005, page 27). 14 Livestock Improvement Corporation Ltd (2004). New Zealand Dairy Statistics 2003/2004. Livestock Improvement Corporation Ltd, Hamilton. Downloaded from http://www.lic.co.nz. 4 May 2012. Livestock Improvement Corporation and DairyNZ (2013). New Zealand Dairy Statistics 2012-13. DairyNZ, Hamilton. Downloaded from http://www.lic.co.nz 26 March 2014.

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In the Hinds catchment (2011 baseline) there were 43, 870 ha of dairy and 10,820 ha of dairy support.15 This dairy farming takes place alongside 27,300 ha of arable farming and 55,600 ha of sheep and beef, with a very small amount of horticulture.16 The current land use mix, including widespread dairy farming and associated dairy support, was based on water made available through the Rangitata Diversion Race ( RDR) built in the 1940s and associated community irrigation schemes.17 Irrigation outside the community schemes drew on ground water extraction and surface water from the Hinds, and the streams and drains in the lower catchment.18 Another factor was the introduction of the “more efficient and effective” centre-pivot irrigation system.19 Recently, on-farm storage ponds have also become a feature in the District and of the Hinds Catchment in particular, an innovation that increases the ability of farmers to manage water efficiently and enhances the reliability of water supply; factors that are crucial to dairy production in particular (Figure 2). A further innovation is the piping of water in community schemes to reduce water losses, as is currently underway in the Valetta Scheme. While these developments have used water more effectively in the RDR community schemes, they raise an issue for farmers in the lower catchment, who are concerned the move away from border dyke irrigation and to other water-saving techniques means there is less surface and ground water for them to draw on. The Hinds River, open drains and groundwater wells are described as experiencing reduced flows as a result of these changes.20

Figure 2: Water Storage Consents Ashburton District 2003-201221 60

30 Ashburton Canterbury 20

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tourism helps to diversify the district economy. Visitor attractions in the District are the Mount Hutt ski field during winter, the scenery of the foothills and high country throughout the year, and the

15 Dairy support includes raising young cows, wintering cows and growing supplementary feed. 16 Land use estimates from Macfarlane Rural Business ex Landcare Research. 17 The Rangitata Diversion Race (RDR), completed in 1944, draws water from the Rangitata River for the Mayfield Hinds (16.5 cumecs/32,000ha) and Valetta schemes (4.4 cumecs/7,300 ha) in the Hinds catchment and the Ashburton Lyndhurst Scheme (13 cumecs/24,000 ha) to the north. (RDR Management Ltd., nd). Flood irrigation from these schemes had the effect of boosting surface and ground water availability in the lower river. 18IIs Lowcliffe drying up? Ashburton Guardian, 14 February 2012, page 9. A point also made during interviews with farmers. 19 Changes were introduced by traditional farmers converting to dairy and newcomers moving into the district, including corporate farmers – described in Rawlinson (2011) and Baughan (2005, pages 299-300). 20 Interviews. Comments include difficulties such as pumping “sand” from wells resulting in damage to pumps. 21 Data provided by Environment Canterbury from resource consent applications. Many of these ponds are in the Hinds Catchment.

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recent development of Lake Hood, on the North East boundary of the catchment with a championship rowing course, recreational boating and swimming. SH1 and Highway 72 carry visitors through the Catchment. 22 The Rangitata River on the southern boundary of the Catchment and District provides opportunities for white water rafting, kayaking and fishing, and there is a group of 80 huts and camping area adjoining the northern part of the Rangitata River estuary at its mouth on the southern edge of the catchment.

Ashburton town is the commercial and service centre of the district and has a strong manufacturing sector, farm services, retail and other services including sport and recreation. There is a number of farm and irrigation oriented businesses, including sale yards, on the southern edge of the town in Tinwald (see Attachment 1). In the Hinds catchment Mayfield and Hinds villages service their respective rural hinterlands.23 To the north, the small town of Methven is a service centre for Mount Hutt skifield and surrounding agricultural activities and Mt Somers village is a gateway to the high country and Ashburton Lakes.

Mayfield and Hinds each has a school, community centre (Hinds) or hall and domain (Mayfield) and a number of businesses servicing farmers and visitors, including garages, cafes (the café in Hinds has an associated clothing retail store), pubs, engineering firms and fertiliser depots. The Council is currently developing a strategic plan for Mayfield, which looks to strengthen community facilities, encourage community participation and attract visitors.24 Popular events in the Catchment that attract locals and visitors include the Mayfield A&P Show and the Longbeach Coastal Challenge.

2.3 People and communities Ashburton District has a growing, ageing, and increasingly ethnically diverse population. Strong growth in the economy has attracted new residents to work and live in the District. The main driver of population growth in Ashburton District between 2001 and 2006 was international migration as it accounted for 62 per cent of the population increase in residents (n= 1,194) during this period, with the trend continued through to the 2013 census.

Recent changes in the usual resident population of selected areas of Ashburton District are shown in Table 2. The usual resident population of the Hinds Catchment was 4,098 in 2013.25 It grew at a faster rate (27%) than the District’s population (22%) between 2001 and 2013. Over the same period the number of residents of Hinds Village increased by 16 per cent from 291 to 336, while residents at Mayfield Village increased by 13 per cent to 162. With its diverse economic base of agriculture and tourism, the population of Methven Township grew strongly to 1,707 in this period. Projected population growth through to 2031suggest the District’s population is likely to grow further, with a low projection of 7.5 per cent, medium of 20.7 per cent and high of 34.6 per cent.26

22 Guest night numbers peak during the ski and snowboard season of July, August and September, although guest night numbers over summer also increased markedly between 2001 and 2010 as summer tourism became more popular in the district. Tourism data from Ashburton District Council (2011b no ‘2011a’ in references, page 26). 23 Ashburton District Council (2011b, page 12). 24 Mayfield, Our Community Our Future. Mayfield Plan, Ashburton District Council (2013). 25 The catchment area as used here is different to the area unit that is called “Hinds” by Statistics NZ – which had a UR population of 4,629 in 2013 and also showed strong intercensal growth. 26 Statistics NZ subnational population projections from 2006 base updated October 2012.

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Table 2: Changes in usually resident population of selected areas of Ashburton District - 2001-2013 Area Per cent change 2001 2006 2013 2001-2013 Hinds Catchment 3222 3477 4098 27.2 Hinds Village 291 327 336 15.5 Mayfield Village 144 153 162 12.5 Methven Township 1179 1398 1707 44.8 Ashburton Town 14223 14937 16572 16.5 Ashburton District 25443 27372 31041 22.0 New Zealand 3737277 4027947 4242048 13.5 Source: Statistics New Zealand

With incoming workers and their families the populations of Hinds Catchment, Hinds Village, Mayfield Village and Methven Township were relatively younger than those of the District and New Zealand (Table 2). The oldest age group (65years & over) of the population is concentrated in Ashburton Town with its attractions for retirees.

Table 2: Percentages of usually resident population by age groups for selected areas of Ashburton District - 2013 Area 14 years & under 15-64 years27 65 years & over Per cent Per cent Per cent Hinds Catchment 24.8 69.1 6.0 Hinds Village 23.1 67.6 9.3 Mayfield Village 22.2 66.7 11.1 Methven Township 22.2 63.1 14.7 Ashburton Town 19.0 59.4 21.7 Ashburton District 20.7 62.5 16.7 New Zealand 20.4 65.3 14.3 Source: Statistics New Zealand

Other features of the population in 2013 were:28 • The populations of Hinds Catchment, Hinds Village and Mayfield were relatively homogeneous in their ethnic composition, although Hinds Village had a significant proportion of Maori descent (12%). The relatively high proportion of Asians resident in the Hinds Catchment (6%) reflects the arrival of migrant workers, especially Filipinos, to work on dairy farms during recent years.29 • Residents of Mayfield Village and the Hinds Catchment were relatively better educated than those of Ashburton District and Hinds Village. • People living in Hinds Village and the Hinds Catchment had higher levels of participation in the labour force when compared with residents of the District and New Zealand. In particular residents of the Catchment were more likely to be employed fulltime than the inhabitants of the two villages, the District and the Town.

27 Generally regarded as the “working” age population, as compared with the “dependent” aged population. 28 Detailed tables of population data for 2006 and 2013 censuses are available from the authors on request along with a mesh-block map. 29 Rawlinson (2011) describes migrant workers in dairying from the Philippines and South America. Anecdotal data puts the number of Filipino workers in the Catchment in the hundreds (cf. 225 recorded by the 2013 census). Additional information is available in Wylie, Sarah (2009). The ADC, Ashburton District Population Facts & Figures (2011) points to the increasing diversity of population and that these people are expected to create new demands for social infrastructure. An example is the work of the Mid-Canterbury Newcomers Network and the Support coordinator. This group is responsible for organising the Multi-Cultural Bites Event, which has been running for four years. See http://multiculturalbite.co.nz/

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• The major source of employment for residents of the Catchment was the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector which provided a livelihood for 59 per cent of residents. By contrast the sources of jobs for the people of Hinds Village were more diverse.30 • Hinds Village had a higher proportion of paid employees among its workforce (80%) than the Catchment (61%). In comparison the Catchment and Mayfield had higher proportions of employers and self-employed persons than Hinds Village.

Schools are important social hubs in rural areas and their rolls (Table 3) indicate population trends at the community level. The area’s schools have large catchments defined by their enrolment zones and bus runs. Apart from Mayfield and Lowcliffe, which were closed in October 2011, the school rolls have increased over recent years, reflecting the land-use change that has occurred from an increase in dairying and also the number of lifestyle blocks near Lake Hood east of Ashburton (Tinwald).

Table 3: Changes in rolls (July) of selected schools in the Ashburton District, 2004 to 201331

change in % change in

School Name roll roll 2004 2007 2010 2013 2004-2013 2004-2013

Carew Peel Forest 53 52 62 70 17 32.1 Hinds 96 123 136 141 45 46.9 Mt Somers Springburn32 63 76 88 84 21 33.3 Lowcliffe 33 36 22 15 - -36 -100.0 Mayfield 82 78 61 61 -21 -25.6 Longbeach 96 103 130 144 48 50.0 Total Ashburton District 4556 4595 4760 4969 413 9.1

2.4 Recreation in Hinds Catchment The Hinds River and associated lowland streams and drains are a local recreation resource. There is no published research documenting ‘current’ levels or types of recreational use of the Hinds River. However, interviews with local people who resided in and around Hinds from the middle of last century indicate they used the Hinds River and nearby drains34 intensively, for swimming, fishing and general recreation. They describe the river and some drains as having significant local recreational values in the past (middle of last century), the river consisting then of a main channel and a series of large holes. While in the past the main Hinds River course was sometimes waterless in very dry years,35 the large holes retained a viable fish population, including trout and eels, with underground

30 Just under half (48%) of the resident workforce of the Hinds Catchment had higher status occupations as managers and professionals in 2013 (cf. 34% for the District and 39% for New Zealand), while about a quarter (27%) had blue collar occupations (cf. 28% for the District and 16% for New Zealand). This pattern reflects the high presence of both farmers in the Catchment (classified as managers for census purposes), and less skilled employees who are employed on-farm and in agricultural support services. The workforces of the villages, however, had relatively fewer people with higher status positions and relatively more with blue-collar occupations. 31 For 2004 the rolls were obtained from Indicators and Reporting Unit, Ministry of Education, 9 November 2012. For 2005 onwards they were obtained from Roll-by-Age-and-Ethnicity-2005-2013.xls downloaded on 23 April 2014 from http://www.minedu.govt.nz 32 While outside the catchment the school bus zone extends into the Valetta and upper Catchment areas. 33 Closed in 2011 34 For example, the Bishops and Macintoshs Drains. 35 It was suggested in interviews this was generally around one year in ten.

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flows that were sufficient to keep the water fresh. Local information suggests that since then the use of the river for fishing, swimming, picnicking or playing has declined significantly, with reduced flows and much smaller fish populations.36 However, dry reaches of the river bed are attractive today for use by four wheel-drive vehicles and off-road motorbikes.37

At least one historical source38 confirms the river has been used locally for swimming, observing “numerous swimming holes in the catchment” and a river that was once “deep enough to swim in”. This historical observation was supported through interviews with older residents, who commented that most crossings (under and around the bridges) were once regarded locally as very good locations for swimming. However, a recent referenceto swimming in the Hinds notes that “…faecal indicator concentrations render the water sources unsuitable for potable, stock water or bathing use”. 39

Duck hunting40 for the Hinds River has been reported in historical accounts and also in comments during interviews. 41 One interviewee described the area as a “duck factory”, observing that the tight winding character of the river with plenty of cover makes it excellent for stalking. It was also reported during interviews that new water storage ponds were attracting ducks to the area, which otherwise breed in the river and drains. Some interviewees characterised the catchment’s water storage ponds as potential sites for recreation, with some evidence (i.e., local observations) of them already being used for fishing. There is also evidence42 that whitebaiting occurs at the mouth of the river and in dongas when they are flowing in the season, although interviewees noted that access is difficult and typically requires the use of a 4WD motorbike along the shingly beach.

The Hinds River (Hekeao) was investigated in 1981 for its value for boating. Except for canoeing or ‘lilo’ trips just below the confluence of the north and south branches of the river near Mayfield (only possible when there was adequate flow), the river was not seen to have recreational boating value (although its scenic value was rated as ‘moderate’).43 At least one campground44 is located next to the river – the Hinds River Scenic Reserve at Mayfield (which caters for overnight campervan parking). A golf course45 is also located adjacent to the river at Mayfield.

The lower Hinds in particular retains some values for trout fishing.46 The local significance of the catchment’s trout fishery over time is emphasised by the Acclimatisation Society’s past use of the Hinds and lowland streams or drains as sources of fingerlings to stock the trout fishery throughout Canterbury. Supporting historical evidence of fish transfer and stocking activity can be found in the Ashburton Acclimatisation Society’s stocktake of work over the 100 year period from 1886 – 1986

36 A number of local people also indicated a decline in birdlife including pukeko, pied stilt and kingfishers although there are no identified ornithological accounts. 37 This observation was made during interviews. Visual inspection of the river bed identified numerous tracks in the shingle. 38 Baughan, L. (2005, page235). 39 Golder Associates (2008). 40 Baughan, L. (2005, page 238). Some spots were “former Road Board shingle pits” – one described as “a keen duck shooters’ dream pond”. 41 For example, the River has been a good place to “walk” or stalk ducks. 42 Marshall, G. (2012). 43 Egarr and Egarr (1981), cited in Benn (2013, p.11) 44 The Hinds River Scenic Reserve is located approximately 1km north of Mayfield on the Inland Scenic Highway (72), next to the Hinds river. Accessed 24/10/1012 from: https://sites.google.com/site/canterburytentsites/free/hinds-river. 45 The Mayfield Golf Club is located 3km north of Mayfield, next to the Hinds River. Accessed 24/10/2012 from: http://www.ashburtondistrict.co.nz/newzealand/golf/. 46 Meredith and Lessard (2014).

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where it is noted that in 1948: “16,000 fish were transferred from Hinds river mainly to Ashburton and Rangitata Rivers”.47 Abundant trout were also transferred to the Inland Lakes.48 Older fishers consistently relate how the river was an excellent trout fishery until the decline in flows and loss of the large water holes towards the end of the last century. They point to an abundant fishery, mostly comprising smaller fish, but with a few larger specimens to be found.49 While this may have been the case since the 1950s, when surplus RDR water was regularly spilt into the Hinds, it is difficult to assess the fishery prior to the late 1930’s in the absence of historic fishery or flow data.50

Nearly a decade ago, the Inventory of Recreation Values for Rivers and Lakes of Canterbury51 scored the river LOW (but not Nil) in both intensity and frequency of use across the following activities: picnicking/barbeque, paddling/wading, trout fishing, four wheel driving/ATV and trail biking. Notwithstanding the river’s low levels of overall use 10 years ago, a more recent statement52 suggests that “because of its size and access to the public, the Hinds River probably provides the greatest recreational opportunities to the general public of the lowland streams in the VA area [Valetta Groundwater Allocation Zone]” – one part of the Hinds Catchment.

While recent data is scarce, 320 angler days were recorded for the Hinds River in the 2001/2002 National Angler Survey53. This indicates that (a decade ago) the river was a “locally valued” fishery.54 It also marked variations in angler use, with the previous 1994/1995 survey recording just 210 angler days.55 No angler days were recorded for the Hinds in the 2007/2008 survey.56 As noted above, historical sources57 58 suggest the river was a much more significant site for angling – one of several in the Ashburton District. “Historically fishing has been a major recreational pursuit with anglers on the Rakaia, Rangitata, Ashburton (Hakatere) and Hinds (Hekeao) Rivers, ocean beaches and river mouths”. 59 As at 2004, the Hinds River was deemed a fly-fishing60 river only. This was the case historically, although older residents described taking fish by a variety of methods.

47 Ashburton Acclimatisation Society (1986, page 11). See also Lane (1964). 48 Meredith and Lessard (2014 p. 6). 49 Interviews. Also see Teirney, L. D., Richardson, J. and Unwin (1987). . 50 Historical accounts of flows seem to vary like the river. For instance, in her county history Rosemary Britten recounts residents petitioning the council in the late 1800’s for bridges over the Hinds but “they would only be used about five days a year, grumbled the council”. When the Maronan Bridge was opened in 1906 “there was no trace of water in the stream”. Yet the push for bridges continued and on the 22nd Sept 1911 the Ashburton Guardian reported the main road crossing was unsafe and impassable “for some time” due to the volume of water, and urged “authorities” to build a bridge. 51 Sutherland-Downing, V., Elley, R. & Daly, A. (2003). 52 Golder Associates (2008). 53 Unwin, M. & Image, K. (2003). 54 Golder Associates (2008). 55 Unwin, M. & Image, K. (2003). 56 Unwin, M. (2009). 57 The memories of locals also support the notion that the river was once a better fishery, such as Ron McKeage who “farmed near the Hinds River which was at one time not too bad for the odd trout” (Baughan, 2005, p.235). Interviews also confirmed recreational fishing has declined. 58 Research from the 1960s noted that “while trout densities were greatest in the lower reaches of Hinds, larger trout were mostly found in the upper reaches with perennial flow, close to the foothills” (Lane, 1964, cited in Golder Associates, 2008). 59 ADC (n.d). Rural Issues, Objectives and Policies. Section 5: Ashburton District Plan. Accessed 19/10/2012 from: http://www.ashburtondc.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyres/E8233F0A-9EA4-4869-B2A0- 1C1AE760FB05/74403/Section5.pdf (p.5-4). 60 Local Fishing Regulations for the Hinds River note a fishing season over the period 1 October to 30 April. Child or junior licence holders may fish during this period using all legal methods with a trout limit of ??? and salmon limit of 2. Other licence holders have the same limit but are only able to participate in fly fishing. Fish

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2.5 Stock and drinking water The catchment is serviced by an open water race system for stock supplies, part of a district network that is over 100 years old, drawing from rivers, springs, the RDR and irrigation schemes, with 31 consented intakes. Surplus water is returned to surface/ground water via 95 disposal points.61 There are four rangers who operate the system with a ranger for the Montalto-Hinds area. Over recent years farmers, especially dairy farmers, have been converting their stock water system to piped supplies and troughs and the race system is under review by the District Council.

Drinking water in the Catchment is sourced mainly from shallow wells, with community schemes for the villages of Hinds and Mayfield, with the latter due for an upgrade as quality there is deemed to be poor.62 The trend towards a decline in drinking water quality is of concern to people and communities in the catchment, and to health services in the district and region. Changes in and intensification of land use over recent years are likely to be impacting on water quality, through surface runoff, animals in streams or leaching to groundwater.63 There has been considerable debate about this issue in local media as the links to intensive farming are not always agreed in terms of both technical and local knowledge.

2.6 Stakeholder groups There are a large number of different representative groups in the District who have with an interest in the process of limit setting for the Catchment, with some cross-sectoral groups formed for that purpose. ECan developed a list of stakeholders with an interest in the Hinds Catchment and it comprises 137 names from a variety of groups. A summary of the groups represented is provided here: • Local and National Government – including Environment Canterbury, Ashburton District Council, the Department of Conservation, and the Canterbury District Health Board • Ngāi Tahu - Te Rūnanga o Arowhenua • Cross-sectoral Groups – including the Ashburton Zone Committee, the Hinds Plains Land and Water Partnership (HPLWP) formed to work with the technical team and ZC, and the Hinds Plains Working Party • Sector Groups - Agricultural and Irrigation Groups including the Agricultural Industry Training Organisation, Arable Women and Youth, River Rating Districts, Water Users Groups, Industry Groups (including Beef and Lamb, Dairy NZ, FAR, Fonterra, Federated Farmers), Irrigation Groups, Grow mid-Canterbury, RDR, Rural Women NZ, Soil and Health Association, Young farmers, and the Grain and Seed and Maize Growers Committee, and Trustpower as an energy sector group • Community Groups and Organisations - There are a wide range of community groups and organisations in or associated with the Hinds catchment including schools, the Mid Canterbury Principals Association, Community Trusts, Business Associations, Council of Social Services, Kindergarten Associations, History Groups, Ratepayers Groups, Citizens Associations, Newcomers Support Network, Probus and Rotary, Chamber of commerce, Rural Support, and the Hinds Community Centre

and Game (online). Central South Island Local Fishing Regulations. Accessed 19/10/2012 from: http://centralsouthisland.fishandgame.org.nz/local-fishing-regulations-4. 61 http://www.ashburtondc.govt.nz/services/waterservices/stockwater.htm 62 The district’s community water schemes draw mainly on groundwater (nine) and surface water (five). Briefing paper for the AZC on Ashburton District Community Outcomes. 63 Davies-Colley, et al. (2003) and Environment Canterbury Regional Council (2008). Canterbury Regional Environment Report. Chapter 3: Groundwater. Report No R08/83

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• Environmental and recreation groups - Fish and Game, Landcare Groups, Forest and Bird, Fishing clubs, Action Groups, Protection Societies, QE11 Trust, and the Save the Rivers Group.

2.6 Summary and contextual issues The Hinds Catchment is distinguished by rapid social change in recent years, driven by the change in land use from arable, sheep and sheep and beef farming to dairying. This change has led to an increasing total population, a younger population with more school-aged children and a more diverse population. However, these generally positive changes should be balanced against a number of issues and concerns for the people and communities in the catchment that are part of the context for the assessment of likely effects of limits on water takes and nutrient discharges into water ways. These were issues identified64 prior to the scenario analysis phase of work. They are relevant to the process of community catchment planning and to the management of social change from any planning outcomes. They were considered as contextual issues as part of the social assessment of scenarios. The issues are:

• impacts of new/changing planning rules in the LWRP on the finances and everyday life of farmers (including the flow-on effects of stress and reduced social wellbeing) • impacts of changing landscapes/agricultural practices (including on-farm storage, drainage, irrigation, land-use change) • a shift from family to corporate farms and the increasing use of migrant labour and need to accommodate these newcomers • sustainability of population growth and school rolls, including a churn factor from the turnover of agricultural workers • impacts of changing communities (including new migrants of diverse ethnicity, school rolls, social cohesion, resilience, etc.) • changes in social capital with the intensification of agriculture and longer working hours etc., including levels of participation in community organisations and voluntary and sporting activities • effects of the shift from border-dyke systems of irrigation on river and drain flow levels, ecosytems, kai gathering and other cultural uses, and recreational opportunities • the pros and cons of a less/more diversified district economy, employment, agricultural support services, primary processing facilities (milk, seeds, crops) • traffic volumes, safety, and maintenance on rural roads with the increase in heavy traffic from regular milk collections • value conflicts between resident farmers and new arrivals from other parts of NZ and overseas • impacts of declining water quality on drinking-water (particularly previously safe sources such as shallow wells and stockwater races), recreation, stock water, ecosystem health and biodiversity, cultural values etc. • tensions between water users and communities in different parts of the catchment.

Where relevant these issues are addressed in more detail in the assessment below.

64 Drawing on the material cited, interviews and discussions at two initial community meetings.

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3 Assessment of scenarios

The scenarios investigated are:

Baseline (Current State) Scenario – This scenario is intended to show the long-term effects of current (2011/2012) land use activities. This represents the effects expected if current farm types continued and good management practices are used. Technically a baseline is a point in time whereas the current state is a more dynamic concept reflecting past trends and likely changes into the future. However, for consistency with the overview report and other technical assessments, the term baseline is retained to name this scenario throughout the following assessment.

Development Scenario – The development scenario assumes approximately 30 000 ha of additional irrigated area. This scenario is consistent with the consented expansion of the Mayfield-Hinds, Valetta and Barhill-Chertsey irrigation schemes. Key assumptions are that the new irrigation area will replace existing dry land and part irrigated areas above SH1; all irrigated areas will use spray irrigation at an application efficiency of 80 per cent; the distribution of irrigation and stockwater will be through an efficient pressurised piped system and existing groundwater consents above SH1 will be transferred to piped surface water. Below SH1, existing surface water and stream depleting ground water takes will be transferred to deep groundwater.

Environmental Scenario – The environmental scenario explores the results of managing land and water to deliver ZC environmental and cultural outcomes. This scenario looks to achieve increased stream flows and improved water quality. For the Hinds River, the aim is to reduce flow intermittency in the middle reaches and improve the flow so that there is more connection between the upper and lower river. In terms of water quality, the aim is to achieve an average nitrate concentration in the lowland streams less than 6.9 mg/L, and in the Lower Hinds less than 3.8 mg/L.65

Potential Options Package – None of the above scenarios (baseline, development or environmental) were intended to meet all of the priority outcomes for the Hinds Plains catchment. In comparison, the purpose of the options package was to have a starting point to explore potential mitigation options to meet all or most of the outcomes. The package was then refined to a solutions package for the ZIP Addendum through community stakeholder meetings, ZC technical workshops, and hui with Arowhenua Marae.

The following discussion considers the scenarios in respect to key outcomes from a social perspective (using the scale described in section 1.5). The final solutions package is in turn considered by outcomes in section 4.

3.1 Drinking water wells and domestic supplies now and in the future at least meet national drinking water standard for E.Coli and nitrate The availability of an adequate supply of clean drinking water is a fundamental requirement for human health and social well being.66 Many people consider that untreated high quality drinking water is a fundamental right in New Zealand.67

65 These relate to the revised nitrate toxicity guideline values for 80% and 90% species protection respectively. 66 The United Nations 2010 General Assembly declared access to safe and clean drinking water as a human right. 67 National policy has moved to give greater protection to drinking water supplies and an amendment to the Health Act (the Health (Drinking Water) Amendment Act 2007), requires drinking water suppliers to take reasonable steps to contribute to protection of sources of drinking water. The Canterbury Regional Policy Statement 2013 states that “high quality, fresh water is fundamental to people’s health and well-being. If

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Baseline The baseline scenario shows an apparent decline in drinking water quality is of concern to people and communities in the catchment, and to health services in the district and region. Changes in and intensification of land use over recent years are likely to be impacting on water quality, through surface runoff, animals in streams, or leaching to groundwater.68 There was considerable debate about this issue at community workshops as the links to intensive farming are not always agreed in terms of both technical and local knowledge. This debate is also reflected in local media.

The water quality monitoring and analysis indicates that a decline in drinking water quality could result from faecal contamination due to intensification of livestock, leading to increased rates of waterborne disease (enteric or gastro-intestinal disease).69 There is also a concern that high levels of nitrates in drinking water can lead to a condition known as methaemoglobinaemia (mainly affecting babies less than 6 months old or in the womb), although very few cases have been reported in New Zealand.

Development Likewise, in the development scenario a potential decline in drinking water quality is of even greater concern. This scenario is likely to see increased faecal contamination due to the significant growth in livestock numbers, leading to an increased risk of waterborne disease (enteric or gastro-intestinal disease).70 However, the indications are that at present most drinking-well contamination arises from poor well-head protection with potential to mitigate the risk as discussed in the solutions package, in Section 4, below. While the current state indicates bacterial concern is a distinct possibility over time, the development scenario indicates that such contamination is potentially more likely, especially during high-rainfall events and without improvements in the protection of wells.

With the development scenario there will be an increased level of expressed concern, stress and debate in families and communities about actual and perceived71 health issues for drinking water and the level of risk posed with the expanded levels of intensive land use in this scenario. There is also likely to be an element of adaptation such as new infrastructure and close monitoring of Council

water quality continues to deteriorate in the region, the costs of supplying potable drinking water will increase”. Issue 7.1.3: Environment Canterbury (2013) See also ‘Nitrates in water pose health risk’ (The Southland Times, 19 October 2012), ‘Don’t panic over water nitrate levels – doctor’ (The New Zealand Herald 7 November 2012). 68 Davies-Colley et al. (2003) and Environment Canterbury Regional Council (2008). Canterbury Regional Environment Report. Chapter 3: Groundwater. Report No R08/83. CDHB emphasise that Ashburton district already shows high levels or enteric illnesses compared to the rest of NZ. They also note there is a link between high levels of E. coli and high levels of nitrates in water; both suggesting there is contamination from animal effluent. See also recent media articles including ‘Mothers ‘need alert’ over high nitrate levels’ (The Press, 19 May 2010), ‘Health expert warns of water pollution in Canty (The Press, 2 August 2012), ‘Canterbury water quality poses risks’ (The Press, 5 November 2012), and ‘Claims water unsafe ‘alarmist’ (Ashburton Guardian, 7 November 2012). 69 A 2009 study estimated that between 18000 and 34000 cases of waterborne gastro occur every year in New Zealand, although it is mostly not possible to identify the source (Lake, et al., 2009). and Campbell, D. (2009). Acute gastrointestinal illness in New Zealand: information from a survey of community and hospital laboratories. (. 70 A 2009 study estimated that between 18000 and 34000 cases of waterborne gastro occur every year in New Zealand, although it is mostly not possible to identify the source (Lake, et al., 2009). 71 A sociological axiom is that perceived effects can be “real” in their consequences.

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supplies, well-head protection (from faecal matter), rural households sinking deeper wells72 from current shallow aquifers, or purchase of water to use when mixing baby formula.73 People concerned about water quality are likely to seek testing of household wells and rural supplies and will require good information about when and how to do this.

Discussion at the community workshops led to the suggestion that piping of stock water and irrigation races could see some people continuing, or opting, to use these sources as household supplies. Such use would put pressure on organisations managing these supplies to maintain drinking water quality standards required of community supplies, with potential additional costs to all users.

Health services, water suppliers and councils are likely to become more involved in providing training and information about drinking water standards and water quality issues and become increasingly involved in assessing risks,74 providing health warnings and potentially managing public health events.75 At this point there is no institutional trigger for agencies to act as a result of predicted levels of faecal or nitrogen contamination, but it is likely that the predicted results for well owners will lead to inter- agency responses to provide advice and information to the community – at present all agencies could improve in this regard.

These sorts of adaptations will lead to increased costs of water supplies, through Council rates to cover capital development and treatment or capital costs to landowners76 and on-going and increasing costs for households in the longer term.

Environmental The environmental scenario, while maintaining land uses from the current state, is likely to lead to improvements in water quality in the catchment due to the application of advanced farm mitigations, the dilution effects of extra ground water, higher stream flows from alpine water, the piping of stock water and irrigation races.

The water quality assessment found that this scenario will reduce the number of samples from shallow wells exceeding the mean annual value (MAV), as well as the number of wells with a risk of one or more samples over the MAV in comparison with the baseline scenario. However, it is still likely about half the shallow wells under areas of intensive land use on light soils will have an average nitrate concentration exceeding 5.6 mg/L (half the MAV). There is also a high likelihood the maximum concentration of nitrate in one or more of these wells will exceed the MAV at some stage.

The overall risk of exceeding the MAV for nitrate and E. coli is decreased under the environmental scenario for both shallow and deeper wells. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the ability of farmers to achieve advanced mitigation, acceptance of the need for better well-head protection and the dilution effects of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR).

72 Nonetheless there are indications from the technical models that deeper groundwater will also experience nitrogen problems over the longer term. 73 The economic analysis (4.5.2.2)considers additional costs of obtaining clean drinking water (Upananda, 2014). 74 Winkworth, Cynthia L (2010). Land-use change and emerging public health risks in New Zealand: assessing Giardia risks. Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association, Vol 123 No 1322. 75 Such as a recent event in Selwyn District - see Community and Public Health (2013). Report to the Darfield community: an outbreak of waterborne gastroenteritis in Darfield, Canterbury. 76 Through additions to council supplies or deeper private bores.

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Compared with the baseline and development scenarios, there is likely to be a reduction in expressed concern, stress and debate in families and communities about actual and perceived health issues for drinking water (especially for young children), and the level of risk posed with the continued level of intensive land use.

The level of adaptation as a result of anticipated health issues will also reduce, and there will be less pressure to invest in new infrastructure. However, people mixing baby formula are likely to remain concerned about their water supplies and buy bottled water with associated costs.

Increased awareness of the importance of water quality, along with advanced mitigation practices and the need for feedback on the outcomes of these practices as part of continuous improvement, will mean there is more frequent testing of household wells and rural supplies. Households will require information about when and how this testing should be undertaken. There will also be demand for a stronger information system for storage and sharing of water testing data, as proposed by community members. This information system would collate ADC consent tests, milk company tests, and ECan’s monitoring of wells. Health services, water suppliers and councils are likely to be active in providing training and information about drinking water standards and water quality issues, assessing risks and providing any necessary warnings, as is the case for the other two scenarios, but with reduced urgency.

Assessment summary for outcome:

Baseline - Very unlikely to be met/Not met Development - Not met Environmental - Unlikely to be met

3.2 Maintain existing flood control to protect small communities and farmland Baseline Under this scenario, lower stream flows with fewer flushing flows could over time exacerbate the risk of flooding because of the state of the river bed through increased presence of woody weeds. There could also be a risk of increased local flooding around poorly maintained drains77. However, countering this possibility, the farming community and settlements of the catchment have a long standing public interest in avoiding the consequences of flood events on residences, farm production and transport systems. There is therefore no reason to assume there will be reduced weed and willow control by farmers and councils. Nor is it possible to identify at this point an impact of increased costs to the community through river-control property rates.

Another potential risk considered in the assessment relates to increased use of storage ponds to maximise water utilisation and the possibility of an increased risk of storage pond failure resulting in localised flood events. It is assumed here that all consented ponds are built to prevailing engineering standards and this risk is therefore minimal.

Development The water quantity modelling and assessment found that with the development in this scenario there would most likely be a small increase over time in surface water flows in three coastal streams modelled and this increase would be likely to extend to the lower Hinds River. There could be a small increase in the size and frequency of freshes and larger flood events, but these are likely to be absorbed before they reach the lower Hinds River. There is no indication that lower stream flows

77 Or, as pointed out in community workshops, surface drainage that has been removed as part of recent farm developments.

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and fewer orsmaller flushing flows could exacerbate the risk of flooding because of the increased presence of woody weeds in the river bed. As with the baseline scenario, there is no reason to assume there will be reduced effort at weed and willow control in the river and weed control in drains by adjoining farmers or the two councils.

While an additional 30,000ha of irrigated land is very likely to result in more investment in farm storage to increase reliability of supply, it is assumed that the risk of pond failure will be low.

Environmental Water quantity modelling indicates that Water levels will be higher in the environmental scenario when compared to the baseline or development scenarios, with water levels being close to historical patterns under border dyke irrigation. The environmental scenario also involves increased flows in the Hinds River and lowland streams through augmentation and higher groundwater.

The environmental scenario therefore could result in an increase in the size and frequency of freshes and larger flood events for all watercourses in the lower catchment compared to the baseline. Under this scenario the farming community may need to be even more vigilant in maintaining local drainage and managing local flooding issues. There will be reduced opportunity to fill in drains and races with the conversion of land uses for development in the lower catchment.

Overall, there is likely to be increased effort (and costs) at weed and willow control in the river, or weed control in drains, by adjoining farmers or the two councils, noting that with the piping of races there will be less need to clear them, with a potential reduction in the costs of race maintenance.

In the environmental scenario, the flood risk from storage ponds failure is not likely to differ from the development scenario.

Assessment summary for outcome:

Current state - Likely to be met/very likely to be met Development- Likely to be met Environmental - Likely to be met

3.3 Economic growth in Hinds and Mayfield communities Economic growth is a primary outcome and discussed in detail in the economic assessment report. It is also included here as a social outcome as it will result in direct and indirect effects in relation to other social outcomes, including changes in employment, and population size and composition.

Baseline The trends for economic growth in the current state will be limited because there is no projected increase in irrigated area or additional intensification (particularly dairy) from the baseline, which at present includes just a small increase in irrigated area with limited reliability from development of the Barhill-Chertsey scheme outside the catchment to the north. Growth in the dairy sector will be constrained by the reduced reliability of new water and also for farms obtaining surface water from streams and drains.

Based on the 2011 land-use pattern, the number of farmers and farm workers engaged in dairy, dairy support, horticulture and arable farming is likely to remain relatively constant, with employment in these sectors not increasing to any significant extent. The existing sheep and beef or arable farms are not likely to contribute to any growth, with the focus being on maintaining their economic viability. In the event of short term price declines for dairy products which may be likely

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over time, employment should remain robust. However, there may be some loss of paid employment if farm income falls over the longer period and costs rise. This would more likely be the case for holdings that are marginal economically, or for family farms that have the capacity to employ family members rather than contractors.

Ongoing piping of water supplies will create some employment opportunities for district suppliers and contractors and there could be some opportunities for contracting or employment around mitigation practices such as riparian planting.

The economic analysis indicates that overall there will be gains and losses in terms of employment and the overall result will result in little change over time. The gains from this scenario will be in terms of increased production from the increased reliability of existing irrigation supplies from Barhill-Chertsy water. The losses will arise from the effects of good farm mitigation practices in reducing farm budgets and outputs.

The established trend towards larger farms and corporate farming is likely to continue, leading to more employees per farm and fewer employers and self-employed in the agriculture sector. There will be continuing demand for NZ and overseas migrant workers on a seasonal and multi-year basis, with a continuing high annual churn of dairy farm workers.

Unemployment will remain low in the catchment and relatively low across the District even in the event of a serious sector or national- economic downturn. This is because rural workforces, particularly in dairying, are relatively mobile and likely to move to other sectors or locations when necessary.

Development Under the development scenario there will be a substantial increase in irrigated area based on the 2011 land-use pattern. With the large addition of irrigated area, there will be an increase in intensive farming , much of it arising from the conversion of farms from sheep and beef to dairy and dairy support. The increase in on-farm employment will be in the order of 119 FTEs direct (most expected to be in the catchment) and 135 FTEs indirect.78 This represents a significant change relative to the baseline scenario. With increased mechanisation and farm management efficiency over time, and fewer farm conversions due to limits in water supplies, the numbers employed on farm will slowly stabilise or decline. However, in terms of prior experience of rural change in New Zealand the anticipated changes as a result of land-use change are likely to be long-term and robust.

Furthermore, mapping of the likely location of new irrigation areas indicates that the additional jobs will be located mainly above SH 1, with a large proportion above HW 72. This means areas such as Ruapuna, Carew, Montalto and Mayfield village will experience most of this employment growth, with significant employment growth also occurring around Hinds village.

Employment in the dairy and arable sectors is likely to remain constant in the event of short term price fluctuations for agricultural commodities, but there may be some loss of employment should dairy prices fall over a longer period, especially for highly geared holdings and family farms with the capacity to absorb extra work among family members. Any protracted period of economic difficulty for the enlarged dairy sector in the catchment could see a reduction in cow numbers and a shift back to arable farming in some localities, reducing employment levels and creating a different occupational mix.

78 A breakdown of the FTE effects of different land use changes found dairy conversion had by far the largest employment effect (Economic analysis for scenarios by Upananda, 2014).

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The established trend towards corporate farming will see more employees per hectare, and fewer employers and self-employed operators in the agriculture sector.79 This trend also occurs in the baseline and development scenarios, but will be more noticeable in the latter with its greatly expanded dairy sector, given the increasing capital costs of conversion and demand for additional sources of bank debt and new equity.

Unemployment will remain low across the catchment for both the baseline and development scenarios and will be relatively low across the District in the face of commodity and other economic cycles. This is because rural workforces, particularly in dairying, are relatively mobile and likely to move to other sectors or locations when necessary.80

With the development scenario there will be strong demand for NZ and overseas81 migrant workers on a seasonal and multi-year basis, with a relatively high annual churn of farm workers. The extra dairy workforce under this scenario will accentuate this effect and associated social issues faced by communities.

Increases in farm incomes from development are likely come with increases in farm debt to finance the changes.82 With tight farm margins, expect periods of high stress among farmers in periods of lower milk prices, high interest rates and climatic events such as snow and drought.

Environmental In the environmental scenario there will be no increase in irrigated area or additional intensification (dairy) from the baseline, which at present includes a limited increase in irrigated area from development of the Barhill-Chertsey scheme, although this new water will have limited reliability. Growth in the dairy sector will be constrained by the reduced reliability of new water and also for farms obtaining surface water from streams and drains.

Based on the 2011 land-use pattern, the number of farmers and farm workers engaged in dairy, dairy support, horticulture and arable farming is likely to remain constant and not increase. The existing sheep and beef or arable farms are not likely to contribute to growth, instead looking to maintain their economic position in the face of the additional costs of farm mitigation. In the event of short term price declines for dairy products, employment should remain stable, but there may be some employment losses, if prices fall over a longer period and costs rise, or there is a prolonged drought. This is likely to be the case for holdings that are marginal economically, and for family farms with the capacity to absorb extra work among family members rather than use employees or contractors.

Piped water supplies will create some employment opportunities for District suppliers and contractors and there could be small opportunities for contracting or employment around advanced farm mitigation practices such as riparian planting.

79 Farm ownership is changing to involve increasingly large-scale operations, with more than 50% of staff now employed on wages compared with 29% in 1997. Strategy for NZ dairy farming 2009- 2020. http://www.dairynz.co.nz/file/fileid/28814 accessed 30 July 2012 80 For example, rural workers have in the past moved into the construction sector when opportunities arose; and this sector is likely to be buoyant in Canterbury for the next 10-15 years. 81 Rawlinson (2011) describes migrant workers in dairying in the area from the Philippines and South America. Additional information is available in Wylie (2009) as referenced in the social profile. Interviews in the catchment and discussions at community workshops also indicated this is likely to be a continuing trend. 82 http://agrihq.co.nz/article/no-bonanza-to-debt-laden-farmers

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The economic analysis indicates that overall there will be gains and losses in employment with the overall result being somewhat neutral. The gains from this scenario will be in terms of increased production from the increased reliability of existing irrigation supplies. The losses will arise from the effects of advanced farm mitigation on farm budgets and outputs.

The established trend towards larger farms and corporate farming is likely to continue, especially with advanced mitigation, leading to more employees per hectare and fewer employers in the agriculture sector. There will be continuing demand for NZ and overseas migrant workers on a seasonal and multi-year basis, with a continuing high annual churn of dairy farm workers.

Unemployment will remain low in the catchment and relatively low across the District even in the event of a serious sector, or national-level, economic downturn. This is because rural workforces, particularly in dairying, are relatively mobile and likely to move to other sectors or locations when necessary.

Summary assessment for outcome:

Baseline - Likely to be met (but only a relatively small gain and only for the first ten years) Development - Very likely to be met Environmental – Neutral

3.4 Enhanced social wellbeing of rural communities For the purposes of social assessment, social wellbeing is typically defined broadly to include a number of elements as shown in Attachment 2. The assessment under this outcome is organised in terms of the agreed ZC indicators, i.e. not from a wider perspective as this could involve double `counting’.

Baseline In the baseline scenario, with little or no net employment growth in the catchment, there is unlikely to be any additional population growth above that for the last 12 years, and already projected to grow at the District level through to 2031, as discussed in section 2.3 above. Any period of protracted economic downturn in the catchment is likely to see a fall in employment and population growth, especially if gross farm margins reduce.

Pressure on farmers from increased costs of production and the demands of good farm management practices are likely to increase pressure on farmers and farm families to cope psychologically,83 which will increase demand for health services and support programmes. This pressure will be most evident in times of drought or other extreme weather events placing restrictions on water availability and could create demands for rural support services as provided by the Mid Canterbury Rural Support Trust. Stress will be evident across all sectors and particularly the arable sector.

In the absence of other land-use opportunities, there may be some pressure to subdivide farm properties for lifestyle blocks, mainly in areas close to Ashburton and the main villages but there is likely to be very limited demand.

There could be a reduction in social cohesion between water users as existing irrigators face reduced access to water and no potential for expansion along with increase costs and reduced farm margins. There could also be some ingoing tensions between farmers in the upper and lower catchment over

83 See, for example Botha and White (2012).

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the availability of ground and surface water. Any conflicts in values between dairy farming, with its more transient workforce and different occupational cultures and work routines (daily and seasonal) from sheep and beef and arable farming are likely to reduce over time. Countering this trend will be the opportunity to build cohesion on traditional leadership from the sheep and beef sector (unlike in scenario 2).

Following population growth and associated social benefits over recent years, there will be no additional benefit to community wellbeing from further population growth that flows into the retention of health services, schools and other community facilities across the districts, traditional sport clubs will continue the struggle to maintain membership and social capital, causing some co- location and rationalisation of activities (such as merging of teams and shared use of facilities that has already become necessary in the district). Some new groups and recreational activities could emerge with increased numbers of farm workers from different cultural backgrounds.

Development With increased irrigation activity and further conversion of farms to dairying, particularly of sheep and beef farms in the upper catchment, there is likely to be population increase84 in the catchment, building on that already evident for the last 16 years and projected to continue for the District as a whole. This increase will be most noticeable around Mayfield.

However, economic diversity will decrease as dairying expands further, so communities will become vulnerable to long periods of drought or water shortage, and to economic downturns in the dairy sector. To some extent this dependence on a single sector will be offset by diversity in the district as a whole and access of workers to regional labour markets. Any period of protracted economic downturn and employment in the catchment is likely to see a related fall in population.

There will be a significant benefit to community wellbeing from ongoing population growth – in the retention of health services, schools, sports, organisations and community facilities across the district and in the catchment itself. The schools most affected will be Hinds, Carew-Peel Forest and Mayfield, with the most obvious change experienced in Mayfield. While the population will age over time the dairy sector is likely to continue to attract younger workers and families through workforce “churn” meaning schools and other village services will experience ongoing benefits following an initial surge with farm conversions.

As with the current state, but on a larger scale, there is also likely to be a reduction in social cohesion and an increase in social conflict in communities with the development scenario due to conversions from sheep and beef to dairying. The loss of social cohesion will derive from the increasing presence of newcomers and the loss of traditional farmers who have a sense of community stability and cohesion, and the churn of workers with limited involvement in community life.85 Cohesion will also reduce from increased competition for resources and the divergent value

84 FTE’s represent a mix of full and part-time workers. Some of these workers will have dependents. Based on an estimate of 250 FTE additional workers from the economic assessment, largely on farm, and some off farm employment focused in Hinds and Mayfield, an estimate of population growth with a multiplier of 1.9 per FTE the total catchment population increase is 475. Estimate based on total population divided by total FTE (as used by Statistics NZ i.e. Residents employed FT + 0.5 of residents employed PT) = 1.9 for Hinds Catchment for the 2013workforce and population. 85 As shown by comparative case research from areas such as Amuri, and Waitaki Plains (McClintock, et al., 2002) and research in Ashburton District by Rawlinson (2011). Also, Pomeroy and Newell (2011, p. 37) point out that the shift from dryland beef and land production to intensive horticulture and dairying in North Canterbury has been associated with “as much cultural change as environmental and economic change”. “Several farmers commented to the effect that more intensive production brings more people, and more people means greater diversity, a need for tolerance, adaptation, and new perspectives.”

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systems of stakeholders, as a result of existing irrigators facing reduced access to water or costs of sinking deeper wells. There are likely to be some ongoing conflicts in values between dairy farming, with its different occupational culture and work routines (daily and seasonal) from sheep and beef and arable farming. Conflicts between stakeholders with a production perspective and those with ecological views may also increase over time with any further declines in water quantity and quality, and any ecological degradation.86

While the population will increase, traditional sport clubs could still struggle to maintain membership and social capital, causing co-location and rationalisation of activities (such as merging of teams and use of facilities as has become necessary already in the district).87 Some new groups and recreational activities are likely to emerge with an increase in the number of farm workers from different cultural backgrounds.

Household income will continue to rise across the catchment and the district as a whole due to income generated by the dairy sector with benefits flowing into wider health and wellbeing.88 Across the district, there is likely to be greater variation in personal and household incomes, especially between sectors and age groups, as the lower-income service sector can be expected to expand and there will be an increased number of elderly on fixed or limited incomes. 89 The most noticeable increase in household incomes will be in the Mayfield area, where increased incomes can be expected to flow into and boost local businesses.

A continuing emphasis on dairying in the catchment will see indirect employment benefit more outside the catchment than within it. At present the main dairy processing plants, including new and expanded plants, are located south and north of the district in Timaru and Selwyn districts. Whereas, some arable processing, such as for small seeds, is located in the catchment, including at Hinds. Small seed, vegetable and meat processing are also located in the district. Irrigation and dairy sector supplies are largely situated outside the catchment and often are accessed outside the district at a provincial level. To gain the most local social benefit from economic activity associated with farm development there needs to be a strategy to assist local businesses to maximise their capture of the new activity (see section 4.5).

Environmental With little or no net employment growth in the catchment for the environmental scenario there is unlikely to be any additional population growth relative to that which has occurred for the last 12 years. Any period of protracted economic downturn or drought in the catchment is likely to see a fall in population and employment, especially as gross farm margins come under pressure.

Unlike the current state and development scenarios, there will be no benefit to community wellbeing from any population growth that could flow into the retention of health services, schools and other community facilities across the district.

Pressure on farmers from increased costs of production, and the demands of advanced mitigation practices, is likely to increase negative psychological impacts among farmers and farm families, which will increase demand for health services and support programmes. This pressure will be most

86 Positive net social outcomes from changes described in this paragraph would increase from a change management strategy (Attachment 3). 87 And elsewhere in rural New Zealand. See http://www.sportnz.org.nz/en-nz/our-partners/Territorial- Authorities/Facilities/Sportvilles--where-the-whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts-/ 88 Employment and income are important determinates of health. 89 Mapping of the deprivation index for 2006 Census data shows that lower social-economic status is more common in Ashburton town and Hinds Village, whereas rural areas are of relatively high status.

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evident in times of drought or other extreme weather events and could create demands for rural support services as provided by the Mid Canterbury Rural Support Trust. Stress will be evident across all sectors and particularly the arable sector.

There is likely to be some reduction of social cohesion from an increase in social conflict in communities. This reduction would arise from the divergent value systems of stakeholders, for instance as a result of existing irrigators facing reduced access to water and no potential for expansion along with increase costs and reduced farm margins, or people concerned about environmental or cost aspects of MAR. While the sources of conflict will vary, the scale of conflict could be in the same order as the development scenario.

At the same time there will be some on-going conflicts in values between dairy farming, with its more transient workforce and different occupational cultures and work routines (daily and seasonal) from sheep and beef and arable farming. Countering this trend will be the opportunity to build on traditional leadership from the sheep and beef sector (unlike the development scenario). There may also be a reduction in tensions about water access across the catchment.

As for the other scenarios there will be a continuing trend of traditional sport clubs struggling to maintain membership and social capital, causing co-location and rationalisation of activities (such as merging of teams and shared use of facilities that has already become necessary in the district). Reduced farm margins could reduce drawings by farm households. Overall, the catchment will continue to see a range of personal and household incomes, especially between sectors and age groups, as for the baseline scenario and less than for the development scenario.

Summary assessment for outcome:

Baseline - Likely to be met (but only a small improvement as defined by these indicators and only for the first 10 years) Development - Very likely to be met (this assessment would probably shift to “met” if a social change management strategy were applied) Environmental - Unlikely to be met

3.5 Sustainable, diverse and productive land use

Baseline In this scenario the qualifications of farmers and farm workers are likely to increase across the catchment, in line with the development scenario, with dairying employing an increased number of farm managers and skilled farm workers. This trend will facilitate involvement in agricultural extension activities. Achievement of good farm management practices will create a strong demand for new skills and participation in learning activities such as on-farm trials, field days, advisory services, and web-site access to information and decision support services.

The adoption rate for “best practice” dairy farming will have support from the dairy sector and other organisations such as ECan, Dairy NZ and Lincoln University provide leadership and technical support.

Farm size and herd numbers will continue to increase, with more corporate farming involving absentee owners, farm managers and farm workers. Increased corporate farming should also add to a growing uptake of new technologies by farmers with enhanced environmental outcomes.

The dairying sector will continue to provide resilience because of its particular, direct connection to the market and the arable sector will contribute additional land-use diversity. While sheep and beef

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producers are a dominant land use under this scenario and less robust in a market sense, they carry less capital investment and debt. The wider district will provide further economic diversity and work opportunities for people from the catchment communities.

Development The qualifications of farmers and farm workers are likely to increase noticeably with dairying employing an increased number of younger farm managers and skilled farm workers.90 This trend will facilitate involvement in agricultural extension activities; with participation in learning activities such as on-farm trials, field days, web-site access.

The current adoption rate for “best practice” dairy farming is also likely to change rapidly as new dairy producers look to reduce the risks of their large investments and the key stakeholders provide leadership. Farm size and herd numbers will continue to increase, with more corporate farming involving absent owners, farm managers and farm workers. Increased corporate farming could also add to a growing uptake of new technologies by farmers.

Farmers will become increasingly aware they need to increase best practice performance. 91 Reinforcing this focus will be increased attention to extension activities by organisations such as ECan, Dairy NZ and Lincoln University.

Additional dairying should offer more market resilience than sheep/beef production because it is “robustly connected to the market through a single desk seller”.92 Sheep and beef producers, whom dairy farmers are replacing in this scenario, are less robust in a market sense, but carry less capital investment and debt. Research has found that the most resilient communities are those with a diverse economic base. 93 While the catchment will remain dependent on primary production as described in section 2, and will be less diversified than the wider district, it will retain diversity of employment in the primary sector and offer a range of work opportunities, including work outside the catchment for those who choose to commute.

Environmental The qualifications of farmers and farm workers are likely to increase across the catchment with dairying employing an increased number of farm managers and skilled farm workers. This trend will facilitate involvement in agricultural extension activities. Advanced farm mitigation will create a strong demand for new skills and participation in learning activities such as on-farm trials, field days, advisory services, and web-site access to information and decision support services. The adoption rate for advanced mitigation will have to change rapidly, and the dairy sector and other organisations such as ECan, Dairy NZ and Lincoln University will need to provide strong leadership and technical support.

Farm size and herd numbers will continue to increase, with more corporate farming involving absentee owners, farm managers and farm workers. Increased corporate farming could also add to a growing uptake of new technologies by farmers.

Sustainable farm practices will enhance community resilience and offer new opportunities for branding and marketing. The dairying sector will continue to provide resilience because of its

90 This change is indicated by comparison case data from the comparison cases. 91 There was a compliance rate of 70% for dairy farm effluent disposal consents for 977 farms monitored in Canterbury. Beck, L B 2012: 2011-2012 Canterbury Region Dairy Report. Environment Canterbury Report No. R12/80 92 Pomeroy and Newell (2011, page 5). . 93 As found by Taylor et al. (2001) and Pomeroy and Newell (2011).

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particular connection to the market and the arable sector will contribute important diversity. While sheep and beef producers are a dominant land use under this scenario and less robust in a market sense, they carry less capital investment and debt. The wider district will provide further economic diversity and work opportunities for catchment communities.

Summary assessment for outcome: Current state scenario – Unlikely to be met Development scenario – Likely to be met Environmental scenario- Likely to be met

3.6 Enhanced recreational opportunities on waterways (e.g. fishing, picnicking, tourism)

This outcome will depend on other outcomes being achieved, such as improved water quality in drains and streams; the protection and enhancement of indigenous fish habitats in lowland streams and foothills; and protection and enhancement of habitat for trout.

Baseline Decreasing water quantity and quality in the drains and Hinds River and a decline in the overall ecological health of the river and local drain network in the current state means that, in the longer term, there will be no improvement or increase in recreational opportunity around catchment water, with the possibility that remaining recreation opportunities and associated resources, such as the existing whitebait and eel fishery will be lost.

The decline in water quality may result in increased public health warnings about water use for contact recreation in the catchment. It may also result in the need for temporary recreation restrictions. Such warnings, triggered by the identification of high levels of faecal bacteria or high levels of cyanobacteria in waterways, mean that humans and animals should avoid using the water for swimming (but also wadding and paddling, and other in-water activities) until the health warnings have been lifted.94 This will have the effect of reducing local opportunities for water based recreation. Related problems may arise for dog-walkers, if contaminants (including algal growth mats95) in river water contain toxins which are harmful to dogs. Public awareness of deteriorating water quality and associated health risks may also have the effect of deterring casual visitation to river margins, for leisure activities including picnicking.

A decline in water quality, along with reduced flows, particularly in the fishing season, will have a negative effect on the catchment’s trout fishery (which has already declined over the last 20 years), reducing local opportunities for recreational fishing in the Hinds River and drain water. As a result, district fishing activity will continue to occur at locations in neighbouring catchments – specifically the Rangitata and Ashburton rivers – and could include a shift in focus from trout to salmon for some anglers.

94 Exposure to cyanobacteria can cause skin rashes, nausea, stomach cramps, tingling and numbness around the mouth and fingertips, while exposure to high levels of faecal bacteria can cause minor health effects, or sometimes hepatitis A, giardia, cryptosporosis, campylobacter and salmonella. ‘Health Warnings for Canterbury Rivers’ (The New Zealand Herald, 20 January 2011), ‘Algae sparks health warnings in Canterbury’ (TVNZ One News 25 January 2013). 95 It should be noted that while the occurrence of mats or algal blooms in rivers and lakes is a natural phenomenon, human activities (such as taking water from rivers or adding nutrients to waterways) can make things worse.

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Any remaining flows in the river or drains are likely to attract a small amount of local activity by children, bearing in mind the aforementioned risks to health from exposure to water contaminants. As with fishing, most freshwater and river-based recreation activity in the catchment will shift to the adjoining rivers, although there may be some localised interest in the potential of storage ponds for various recreation activities (which will have implications for farm management96). With reducing stream flows the remaining unique features and biodiversity of dongas are unlikely to attract much recreation activity unless there is a policy intervention to initiate physical improvements to them.

In keeping with the assumed changes to water quantity, an increase in dry reaches on the Hinds River will create increased opportunities for 4-wheel drive vehicles and off-road motor bikes. Duck shooting along the river may not be affected unless it is dry in autumn. Increased use of Highway 72 by visitors (especially independent travellers) will mean continuing use of the riverside picnic area by the Hinds River at Mayfield, with pressure to improve the amenity values of this area, where there is considerable woody weed growth.

The overall decline in the recreation value of the Hinds River, its margins and drain water (for fishing, but also such activities as picnicking, swimming, tourism and sporting events) will require raising the community’s awareness of all other water-based recreation opportunities in the wider District, such as opportunities at Lake Hood, the Ashburton lakes, and district parks and reserves. The best outdoor recreation spots will remain out of the catchment. Movement elsewhere for recreation is generally enhanced by greater personal mobility; however, less mobile residents will not have easy access to alternative sites.

Development The development scenario will have surface water flows across the Hinds catchment that are slightly higher than the current state, particularly for low flow years, with the likelihood that the reliability of ecologically sustaining flows would be higher than for the current state. At the same time, nutrient levels in surface water will likely be higher, stimulating the growth of macrophytes and periphyton, with a decline in ecological health, particularly in the lower catchment. Since the 2000s the lower drains, streams and Hinds River have experienced decreasing water quantity and quality and a decline in the overall ecological health of the river and local drain network. Under the development scenario, there is likely to be minimal improvement in flows and further declines in water quality and recreational activity.

As in the baseline scenario, the decline in surface water quality (nitrogen levels and bacterial contamination) will most likely result in increased public health warnings about water use for contact recreation in the catchment although, as pointed out in Section 2, the number of recreational users are now very low). The decline in quality may also increase the need for temporary recreation restrictions. Such warnings, triggered by the identification of high levels of faecal bacteria or high levels of cyanobacteria in waterways, mean that humans and animals should avoid using the water for swimming (but also wadding and paddling, and other in-water activities) until the health warnings have been lifted.97 Such restrictions and an overall perception of poor water quality and poor ecological health will have the effect of further reducing local opportunities for contact recreation. Related problems may arise for dog-walkers, if contaminants (including algal growth mats98) in river water contain toxins which are harmful to dogs. Public awareness of deteriorating water quality and associated health risks may also have the effect of deterring casual visitation to river margins, for leisure activities including picnicking.

96 For example around access and also health and safety. 97 See footnote 80. 98 See footnote 81.

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A decline in stream ecology will have a further negative effect on the catchment’s trout fishery, which has already declined over the last 20 years and will remain at risk. This will reduce local opportunities for recreational fishing in the Hinds River and drain water. The increase in river flows will be insufficient for the Hinds river mouth to open more often or longer, with no increase in the sea-run trout fishery in the lower reaches.

The long-term effect of the development scenario is that district fishing activity will continue to occur largely outside catchment boundaries – specifically the Rangitata and Ashburton rivers , and further afield for specialised trout fishers – and could include a shift in catch from trout to salmon for some anglers.

Improved flows in the Hinds River and drains could attract a small amount of local activity by children, bearing in mind the increased risks to health from exposure to water contaminants such as toxic algae and bacteria. As with fishing, most river-based recreation activity in the catchment will shift to the adjoining rivers and other sites such as Lake Hood. Any improvement in stream flows will enhance the remaining unique features and biodiversity of dongas and these are likely to attract a small amount of recreation activity, mostly by local people.99 Increased irrigation in the development scenario will mean growth in the number of on-farm storage ponds, with localised interest in the potential of these ponds for various recreation activities such as swimming, fishing, hunting and boating. This use of the ponds will have management implications100 for farm management and also game management.

In keeping with the assumed changes to water quantity, an increase in dry reaches on the Hinds River will create more opportunities for 4-wheel drive vehicles and off-road motor bikes. Duck shooting along the river may not be affected unless it is dry in autumn. Increased use of Highway 72 by visitors will mean continuing use of the riverside picnic area at Mayfield, with pressure to improve the amenity values of this area, where there is considerable woody weed growth.

The overall decline in the recreation value of the Hinds River, its margins and drain water over time for fishing, but also such activities as picnicking, swimming, tourism and sporting events; will require raising the community’s awareness of all other water-based recreation opportunities in the wider District, such as those at Lake Hood, the Ashburton lakes, the larger rivers, district parks and reserves. The best outdoor recreation spots will remain out of the Hinds catchment, unless there are efforts to enhance the existing resources in the catchment. Alternatives for recreation are generally enhanced by greater personal mobility; however, less mobile residents will not have easy access to sites outside the Catchment.

Environmental The results of modelling show that ground and surface water flows across the Hinds catchment will be higher, increasing the likelihood that ecological sustainable flows will also be higher. At the same time, nutrient levels in ground and surface water are likely to be lower as a result of advanced farm management practices, MDR and other supplement of stream flows. A significant increase in mean average low flows is expected. Together, these improvements will benefit ecological health, particularly in the lower catchment. There will be consequent benefits for stream-based

99 Community members have suggested that some streams or drains could be selected for river enhancement. These enhancements could include dongas, with physical improvements to them. Such enhancements could be included in the “solutions” package later in this planning process. 100 For example around access, stock management and also health and safety/protection from drowning. Game management issues would include licencing. At this point in the planning process farm ponds are not considered for their biodiversity or recreational offset values.

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recreational activity, potentially lifting activity from low levels as shown for the current state and as expected for the other two scenarios.

Improvements in surface water quality should see reduced incidences of algal blooms and reduced bacterial contamination, with much fewer public health warnings about water use for contact recreation (including for dogs), and greatly reduced need for temporary recreation restrictions that are triggered by high levels of faecal bacteria or cyanobacteria. The overall perception of water quality and ecological health will improve.

Low current recreational use of the Hinds River and larger streams (drains) and dongas means the environmental scenario will create opportunities for enhanced recreational use by local people including children. Opportunities will also be created for increased visitation to river margins, for casual leisure activities such as picnicking by families.

The catchment’s trout fishery is likely to improve with the reduced incidence of low flows and dry reaches. However the increase in flows will be insufficiently for reinstating the Hind’s status as a fly fishing river to the level evident 10-15 years ago unless there is active habitat management. There will be increased opportunities for recreational fishing in the Hinds River and drains. An increase in the frequency of river mouth openings will assist the sea-run trout, whitebait and eel fisheries.

There will also be opportunities and incentives for local communities, including schools, to be involved in river, stream and fishery enhancement projects, particularly at selected drains and access points such as bridges. Increased use of Highway 72 by visitors) will see increasing use of the riverside picnic area at Mayfield, and pressure to improve the amenity values of this area where there is considerable woody weed growth.

Compared to the development scenario, there could be less interest in the potential of irrigation storage ponds for various, localised, recreation activities such as swimming, fishing, hunting and boating, with fewer management implications for farm management and also game management. A reduction in dry reaches on the Hinds River will reduce opportunities for 4-wheel drive vehicles and off-road motor bikes, in turn reducing potential negative impacts on river-bed ecology. Duck shooting along the river may not be affected unless it is dry in autumn.

Longer term, fishing and recreational activity will continue to occur outside the catchment boundaries – specifically at the Rangitata and Ashburton rivers, Lake Hood, the Ashburton lakes and district parks and reserves. Over time improvements in the recreation value of the Hinds River and stream/donga water will help raise the community’s awareness of recreation opportunities in the catchment attracting recreation activity back to the catchment waterways, and are likely to encourage efforts to further enhance and promote the catchment as a local recreation resource.

Summary assessment for outcome: Current sate scenario - Not met Development scenario – Not met Environmental scenario – Likely to be met

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4 Assessment of the solutions package (ZIP Addendum)

Following the scenario assessment phase the Zone Committee and technical team developed and assessed a number of options towards a “solutions package”. This package was refined over several months to the set of recommendations comprising the ZIP Addendum.101 The social assessment considered the solutions package using the same outcomes framework as for the Scenario assessments in Section 3 and drew widely on the analysis carried out for the scenario assessment above. This assessment therefore should be read in light of the above assessment and the references provided there.

The solutions package has four main parts and incorporates a philosophy of continuous improvement across these measures: • Catchment-scale actions • Local-scale actions • Ongoing investigations, monitoring and review • Ongoing community engagement.

The main components of the solutions package are: • 30,000 additional hectares of new, intensive irrigated area (as per the development scenario), which in effect will provide additional water into the catchment from the Rangitata and Rakaia rivers via the RDR • On-farm mitigation to an advanced level supported by Farm Environment Plans and a change-management strategy of technology transfer • Establishing and managing a Hinds Catchment nitrogen load within the LWRP, recognising the interrelationship between area of irrigated land, Managed Aquifer Recharge and on- farm mitigation actions • Hinds River MAR – an additional 1 m3/s added to the Hinds River by spreading basins – location still to be determined – the source of the water to be the piping of the Cracroft stockwater race so the water will come from the Rangitata River • Plains MAR – A series of infiltration basins across the centre of the plains which will increase groundwater storage and flows in the lowland streams plus provide some dilution. The ZC and ECan are still working on the source of this water but it will be clean alpine river water • River mouth opening for the Hinds River – artificial openings of the river mouth • Community engagement to build community support for proposed changes and regulations to support the solutions proposed and continuous improvement, including a Hinds Drains Working Party and working with Arowhenua Marae, landowners and other stakeholders such as Fish and Game.

In addition to the main components a set of local solutions are targeted at particular values in the lowland streams and lower Hinds River. These include: • Habitat restoration in priority water bodies • Ecologically sensitive drain clearance • Stock exclusion and riparian planting • Sediment management • Constructed wetlands • Reconfiguring physical barriers in streams • Well-head protection • Biodiversity protection

101 Ashburton ZIP Addendum, Hinds Plains Area. Ashburton District Council and Environment Canterbury, March 2014.

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• Ground and surface water management including review of minimum flows and water allocations. • An enhanced monitoring system.

The discussion of the solutions package is relative to change from the “current state”(social profile) as presented in section 2 above. The discussion is also dependent on other technical assessments, particularly in respect to drinking water quality, water quantity and quality more broadly, stream ecology, and on-farm and regional economic analysis, and should be read in conjunction with those reports. . The community workshop found that the scenarios assessments highlighted the need to meet a central catchment scale challenge in the Hinds Plains, which was:

“How to increase the area of intensive irrigated farming whilst improving the water quality and water quantity in the underlying groundwater?”

In terms of the groundwater this challenge is about reinstating the balance between inputs and outputs both quality and quantity. The main catchment scale options in support of increased areas of intensive farming are: • On-farm mitigations to reduce leaching of nutrients • Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) • Reduce groundwater allocations for stabilising groundwater quantities.

The technical assessments show that the catchment scale options together deliver improvements in groundwater storage and quality to meet the flow and nitrate concentration targets in the lowland streams and lower Hinds River. The groundwater storage is improved by additional recharge to groundwater by MAR and reduction in groundwater allocations.

4.1 Drinking water Outcome sought by AZC: Drinking water wells and domestic supplies now and in the future at least meet national drinking water standard for E.Coli and nitrate.

Assessment for solutions package: Not met

Despite the catchment-scale measures above, a decline in drinking water quality with the solutions package could result from faecal contamination due to the significant growth in livestock numbers on additional irrigated land, leading to an increased risk of waterborne disease (enteric or gastrointestinal disease). However, the indications are that at present most well contamination arises from poor well-head protection. While scenario 1 indicates bacterial concern is a distinct possibility over time, the solutions package indicates that such contamination is potentially more likely; especially during high-rainfall events and without improvements in protection of wells. There is also a concern that high levels of nitrates in drinking water could lead to health effects. The modelling carried out for the water quality assessment found that it is highly likely shallow wells under land used intensively, as for dairying, will exceed readings of 5.6mg/l (half MAV) at some stage. While that assessment is primarily for shallow wells, it also found deep wells are likely to face nitrate problems with concentration of nitrates increasing over time at depth, including private wells and, potentially, community supplies such as Mayfield and Hinds.102

102 Some deep wells (over 100m) of the ADC, including Hinds, already have nitrate concentrations over half MAV. The modelled average nitrate nitrogen concentration for the development scenario (14.8 mg/L) is about

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As identified in the scenario assessments above, these effects on water quality will result in an increased level of expressed concern, stress and debate in families and communities about actual and perceived health issues for drinking water (especially for young children), and the level of risk posed with the substantially increased levels of intensive land use in this scenario. There is also likely to be an element of adaptation to these risks and potential health issues such as investment in new infrastructure and close monitoring of Council supplies, rural households sinking deeper wells than current takes from shallow aquifers, or purchase of water to use when mixing baby formula. Remaining stock water races are likely to be piped both to enhance water efficiency and to protect the supplies from contamination, although some community members consider the use of races for household supplies should be stopped anyway. People concerned about water quality are likely to seek more frequent testing of household wells and rural supplies and will require good information about when and how to do this. Community members have also proposed a stronger information system around storage and sharing of water testing information including building consent tests for ADC, milk company tests, and the ECan monitoring wells.103 These adaptive measures will lead to increased public and private costs of water supplies, through Council rates, capital costs104 and on-going and increasing expenditure for households in the longer term. In terms of mitigation, health services, water suppliers, and Councils105 are likely to become more active in providing training and information about drinking water standards and water quality issues. They also will become increasingly involved in assessing risks106 and notifying any necessary health warnings and, potentially, in managing formal responses to risks identified by monitoring or public health events.107 Currently there is no institutional trigger for agencies to act as a result of private wells reaching the predicted levels of faecal or nitrogen contamination, but it is likely that the predicted results for well owners would lead to inter- agency responses providing advice and information to the community. At present all agencies could improve in this regard.

4.2 Flood control Outcome sought by AZC: Maintain existing flood control to protect small communities and farmland.

Assessment: Likely to be met

The water quantity modelling and assessment found that with the proposed solutions package there would most likely be a small increase over time in surface water flows in three coastal streams modelled and this increase would be likely to extend to the lower Hinds River. There could be a small increase in the size and frequency of freshes and larger flood events but these are likely to be absorbed before they reach the lower river. There is no indication that enhanced lower stream flows and fewer/smaller flushing flows would exacerbate the risk of flooding because of the increased presence of woody weeds in the river bed. There is no reason to assume there will be a

16.5% higher than the average concentration modelled by the same method for the baseline scenario (12.7 mg/L). (results of modelling in the Water Quality Assessment). 103 Discussion at community workshop to assess the baseline scenario, Hinds, 19 March 2013. 104 Through additions to council supplies, deeper private bores or treatment technology. 105The Canterbury District Health Board and Environment Canterbury are taking a risk-management approach to increasing nitrate concentrations in their region, and have developed a joint communications plan for nitrates, aimed at providing advice and detailing appropriate actions to health professionals and consumers on an on-going basis. The prime focus of the plan is to ensure that lead maternity carers and paediatric carers provide timely advice about the risks of nitrate contamination in areas of concern, and provide them with information on what to do.. http://www.cph.co.nz/About-Us/Drinking-Water/ 106 Winkworth, Cynthia L (2010). 107 Such as a recent event in Selwyn District - see Community and Public Health (2013). Report to the Darfield community: an outbreak of waterborne gastroenteritis in Darfield, Canterbury.

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reduced effort at weed and willow control in the river and weed control in drains by adjoining farmers or the two councils. The farming community and settlements have a longstanding public interest in avoiding the consequences of flood events on residences, farm production and transport systems. At this point it is not possible to identify any impact on costs of drain maintenance by farmers, river control rates and other additional costs on land owners.

Local solutions such as habitat restoration, ecologically sensitive drain clearance, riparian planting, constructed wetlands and reconfiguring physical barriers in drains or dongas may have an effect (positive or negative) on the risk of flooding events so these solutions should be assessed individually for their effect on local flooding.

Another potential risk considered in the social assessment relates to the increased use of storage ponds to maximise water use and the possibility of an increased risk of storage pond failure resulting in localised flood events. While an additional 30,000ha irrigated area is very likely to result in more investment in farm storage to increase reliability of supply, it is assumed here that all consented ponds are built to prevailing engineering standards and this risk is therefore minimal.

4.3 Economic growth and social wellbeing Outcome sought by AZC: Economic growth in Hinds and Mayfield communities.

Assessment: Very likely to be met

Under the solutions package there will be a major increase in irrigated area based on the 2011 land- use pattern as discussed in the development scenario. The analysis of the development scenario is not repeated here. The increase in economic activity will contribute to an increase in community wellbeing as also discussed previously.

Outcome sought by ADC: Enhanced social wellbeing of rural communities.

Assessment: Met

A social change management package was outlined for the Selwyn-Waihora catchment and is provided in this report in Attachment 3. This social assessment recommends that ECan considers ways to advance such a package with relevant agencies to support implementation of the ZIP Addendum.

Outcome sought by AZC: Sustainable, diverse and productive land use.

Assessment: Likely to be met – see analysis in the environmental scenario.

The proposed levels of mitigation require farmers to reach very high level of irrigation efficiencies and nutrient management as well as invest in new infrastructure. To deliver this outcome will require knowledge transfer and up skilling within industry groups and sectors and this need is acknowledged in the ZIP Addendum.

4.4 Recreation Outcome sought by AZC: Enhanced recreational opportunities on waterways (e.g. fishing, picnicking, tourism).

Assessment: Likely to be met

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The results for the solutions package show that ground and surface water flows across the Hinds catchment will be higher than in the current state and development scenarios, increasing the likelihood that ecological sustainable flows will also be higher. At the same time, nutrient levels in ground and surface water are likely to be lower as a result of advanced farm management practices, MDR and dilution from supplementation of stream flows. A significant increase in mean average low flows is expected. Together, these improvements should benefit ecological health, particularly in the lower catchment. There will be consequent benefits for stream-based recreational activity, potentially lifting activity from low levels as shown for the current state.

Improvements in surface water quality should see reduced incidences of algal blooms and reduced bacterial contamination, with much fewer public health warnings about water use for contact recreation (including for dogs), and greatly reduced need for temporary restrictions on contact recreation that are triggered by high levels of faecal bacteria or cyanobacteria. The overall perception of water quality and ecological health will improve, reinforcing perceptions of an enhanced recreation resource in the waterways.

Low current recreational use of the Hinds River and larger streams (drains) and dongas means the solutions package will create opportunities for enhanced use by local people including children. Opportunities will also be created for increased visitation to river margins, for casual leisure activities such as picnicking by families.

The catchment’s trout fishery is likely to improve with the reduced incidence of low flows and dry reaches, reinstating the Hind’s status as a fly fishing river as was evident 10-15 years ago. There will be increased opportunities for recreational fishing in the Hinds River and drains. Artificial opening of the river mouth will assist the sea-run trout, whitebait and eel fisheries.

There will also be opportunities and incentive for local communities, including schools, to be involved in river, stream and fishery enhancement projects, particularly at selected drains and access points such as bridges and in association with any local projects. Increased use of Highway 72 by visitors will see increasing use of the riverside picnic area at Mayfield, with incentive to improve the amenity values of this area where there is considerable woody weed growth.

Compared to the development scenario, there will be less interest in the potential of irrigation storage ponds for various, localised, recreation activities such as swimming, fishing, hunting and boating, with fewer management implications for farm management and also game management.

A reduction in dry reaches on the Hinds River will reduce opportunities for 4-wheel drive vehicles and off-road motor bikes, in turn reducing potential impacts on river-bed ecology. Duck shooting along the river will be improved by any increase in autumn flows.

Longer term, and despite these changes, much fishing and recreational activity will continue to occur outside the catchment boundaries as described in the scenario analysis. Over time improvements in the recreation value of the Hinds River, stream and donga water will help raise the community’s awareness of recreation opportunities in the catchment, and are likely to encourage efforts to further enhance and promote the catchment as a local recreation resource.

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4.5 Management of change

The final social outcomes from implementing the solutions package will depend on the level of change management that is introduced while implementing the package in support of its various aspects and likely effects. Mitigation and management strategies should be developed in collaboration with stakeholders. They will most likely include a combination of short, medium, or long term measures depending on the social effects of the solutions package. Questions of timing and cost -including who pays or implements a measure - will have to be resolved, with an inter- agency, collaborative approach being preferred.

Social effects to be managed include negative effects (to be minimised and mitigated) and positive effects (benefits to be enhanced). The development of the strategy needs to identify any potential for maximising social well-being for communities and the district. The overall aim of the impact management strategy is to increase the likelihood and extent of social well being outcomes consistent with the Zone Committee indicators.

It is also expected that the management of social change will integrate with existing plans and programmes of local, regional and national government and iwi.

Based on experience in other catchments, and the above analysis, the following aspects of a change management strategy are proposed here.

Coping with financial and other stress In addition to managing technical change (as recognised in the ZIP Addendum), it is important to establish a programme to assist farmers and communities to adjust to financial challenges (stress) arising from changes such as riparian fencing and planting or stream/donga restoration. A variety of measures may need to be tested such as:

• Land purchase or financial compensation (eg for retirement of donga land or wetland restoration) • Assistance with financial management of new technologies • Subsidies for activities such as riparian planting or fencing.

Integration of newcomers In order to benefit fully from a growing population, it is important to provide social support programmes for newcomers attracted to new irrigation areas to participate fully in the life of their host community , including people from other parts of New Zealand and overseas:

• Through involvement in recreation (including arts and culture) and sporting activities and cooperating with churches associated with migrants from overseas • By educating employers and employees about work requirements and responsibilities, including the development of cross-cultural communication skills • By encouraging newcomers to enrol their children in schools within the Hinds catchment • By ensuring health services and social support agencies in the Ashburton Zone and Canterbury region are well informed about potential demand arising from any likely changes in land use, and particular cultural needs of minority ethnic groups • By providing appropriate locally based training for newcomers including English language learning • By supporting the cultural networks of minority ethnic groups that have recently arrived in the Ashburton Zone.

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Maximising employment and business opportunities A coordinated strategy for maximising future on-farm and off-farm employment will include training and skills development, with an emphasis on recruitment from the Canterbury region:

• By ensuring WINZ, the ITOs, high schools and training providers are well informed about the work opportunities that could arise • By working with these agencies and groups to define the required skill sets, timing of needs, and ensuring that in the first instance labour demands are met from local sources • By cooperating with local runanga and Kai Tahu to develop a strategy to encourage employment opportunities for Maori in agriculture, as well as riparian and drain/steam restoration and management, habitat management and environmental monitoring • By identifying any needs for farm servicing associated with specific land uses and seeking ways to meet those needs locally through regular communication with the business sector.

Recreation management It will be important to develop and implement an action plan for enhanced water based recreational activities in the Hinds catchment to maximise the expected benefits from improvements in biodiversity and water quality:

• By setting up a working group of representatives of recreational organisations, local government and other stakeholders which draws up the plan and monitors its implementation • By promoting visitor attractions and related businesses in the Zone by highlighting unique ecological values and their enhancement through the package. • By enhancing access to and the use of the Hinds and streams • By considering enhancement of recreation and tourism facilities such as board walks and access ways, visitor interpretation (eg for dongas), viewpoints, parking and picnic areas, walking and cycling trails, when designing all riparian restoration and flood management.

Retain landscape values A sense pf place and associated cultural values derive from the landscape and the way it is managed. To help develop and retain positive landscape values a strategy for retaining important landscape values will assist people and communities to build a sense of place as the pattern of land-uses is changed further:

• By considering district plan rules around visual effects of intensified land uses, storage ponds and on-farm structures • By considering conservation of some representative hedgerows, shelter belts, amenity plantings and indigenous flora and farm buildings which reflect past farming practices.

Communications Effective communication and ongoing participation assist in management of change and achieving positive social outcomes. To this end a comprehensive communications policy would support the solutions package, building on the current communications strategy of ECan:

• By regularly updating information on ECan’s website and in regular newsletters to ratepayers • By developing audio-visual material for community displays at events such as A&P shows and farmer and community field days • By continuing regular meetings with affected parties (e.g. newcomers from overseas, representatives of social services, employment and economic development agencies), to

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identify any social issues as they arise and to recommend specific mitigation and enhancement t measures.

Any mitigation or enhancement strategy requires a monitoring programme to inform the adaptive management process. This basic principle applies to social change as much as to environmental change. Ecan, has the primary responsibility for the Land and Water Plan and for monitoring the implementation of the chosen package of measures for the management of limits in the Ashburton Zone. It is expected that Ecan would work with the District Council, government agencies, Iwi, communities and key stakeholders to develop and implement the social change strategy, utilising relationships established through the Zone Committee processes. No details of social monitoring are developed at this point, but it is assumed that the Technical Indicators (Attachment 2) could be used as an organising framework.

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5 Conclusions

The process of developing the ZIP Addendum for the Hinds River (Hekeao) catchment has benefited from considerable community input as well as the technical input from various perspectives, including social research. In the integrated approach taken by ECANECAN to develop a solutions package for water quality and quantity limits, the social assessment drew on work in the other specialities including, in particular, farm management and economic analysis, ecological analysis of the river and streams and work on water quality of groundwater. The social assessment also benefited considerably from discussions with community members, key stakeholders, focus groups and community workshops.

The assessment found that the current state of the catchment indicates there has been substantial social change as a result of intensive farming (primarily dairy) under irrigation over recent years. As a result the population of the catchment has grown and there have been flow-on benefits to local schools and community life. At the same time some tensions have arisen as a result of new-comer farmers and workers drawn in by the land use changes. There is also tension evident around the deteriorating quality and availability of ground and surface water. A decline in the recreational use of the river, streams and drains over recent years is very clear and cannot simply be attributed to fishers preferring other places or wider social changes such as changing attitudes to outdoor recreation.

Three scenarios were analysed, the baseline, an economic development scenario and an environmental scenario, in order to test the ability of different futures to achieve outcome set by the Zone Committee. None of these scenarios satisfactorily met all social outcomes and in many respects they fell short.

The scenario analysis formed a useful basis for ECan and the ZC to develop a solutions package that was also tested by the technical team and community deliberation and refined as a result. Assessment of the package from a social perspective found that, as with the scenarios, it is difficult to meet all objectives from a social perspective. In particular, the package allows for additional irrigation of 30,000 ha and this undoubtedly brings economic benefits, particularly employment, on and off farm. These benefits will flow into community wellbeing as a result of additional income and additional population. The benefits to social well being will be offset, however, by further declines in the standard of drinking water in groundwater supplies, posing stress, risks and costs to households, particularly those with babies and young children.

Furthermore, a move to advanced farm mitigation in the solutions package, along with additional irrigation water and MAR, has evident benefits for the ecology of the river, streams and drains and these will be enhanced further by selective local initiatives such as stream restoration. These ecological benefits, along with additional flows, will enhance recreational use and this is an important beneficial outcome of the package.

The ZIP Addendum recognises the need to support change management amongst the farming community as technology transfer takes place to advanced farm mitigation practices. This is a positive component of the package and the social assessment recommends that in implementing the solutions package ECan works with a range of stakeholders to manage social change more broadly.

Overall, with change management in place, the solutions package should make a substantial contribution to enhancing the social and economic wellbeing of the people of the Hinds River catchment and Ashburton District.

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References

Ashburton Acclimatisiation Society (1986). 100 Years – 1886 – 1986: Annual Report and Balance Sheet for the Year Ended 31st August, 1986.

Ashburton District Council (2011). Ashburton District State of the Community Report 2011. Ashburton District Council, Ashburton.

Baughan, L. (2005). Hinds and surrounding areas : heritage, history and highlights. Hinds: Hinds History Group.

Benn, J. (2013). Intrinsic instream values of the Hinds/Hekeao River catchment. DRAFT report. Department of Conservation, Operations Group, Christchurch.

Botha, Neels and Toni White (2012). 2011/12 Health Pitstop Report on Emotional Wellness . Report prepared for DairyNZ, AgResearch.

Bower R 2014 Hinds/Hekeao Plains Technical Overview – Subregional Planning Development Process. Report to Environmental Canterbury (in Press).

Campbell, D. (2009). Acute gastrointestinal illness in New Zealand: information from a survey of community and hospital laboratories. The New Zealand Medical Journal 122 (1307). See also footnote 75.

Davies-Colley, R., Cameron, K., Francis, G., Bidwell, V., Ball, A., and Pang, L. (2003). Edited by Robb, C. Effects of Rural Land Use on Water Quality. NIWA Client Report. HAM 2003-057: Hamilton and Environment Canterbury Regional Council (2008).

Golder Associates (2008). Agreed Statement of Ecological Facts for the Valetta-Ashburton River Groundwater Zone Hearing. PROJECT No. VALAS-CAN-001, Environment Canterbury. ) http://ECanECan.govt.nz/publications/Consent%20Notifications/AdrianMeredithGregBurrellAgreedS tatement.pdf. Accessed 19/10/2012

Lane E. D. (1964). Brown trout (Salmo trutta) in the Hinds River. Proceedings of the New Zealand Ecological Society, 11, 10-16.

Lake, R., King, N., Sexton, K., Bridgewater, P., and Campbell, D. (2009). Acute gastrointestinal illness in New Zealand: information from a survey of community and hospital laboratories. The New Zealand Medical Journal 122 (1307).

Marshall, G. (2012). Graeme Marshall Fishing Report 2012. Accessed 19/10/2012 from: http://centralsouthisland.fishandgame.org.nz/newsitem/graeme-marshall-fishing-report-sep-2012.

McClintock, W., Taylor, N. and McCrostie Little, H. (2002). Social assessment of land use change under irrigation. Working Paper 33, prepared for the Foundation for Research Science and Technology Project - Resource Community Formation & Change (TBA 801). Taylor Baines & Associates, Christchurch.

Meredith, Adrian and JoAnna Lessard (2014). Ecological assessment of scenarios and mitigations for Hinds Catchment Streams and Waterways. Report R13, Environment Canterbury.

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Pomeroy, Ann and Newell, James (2011). Rural Community Resilience and Climate Change. Report to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Centre for Sustainability: Agriculture, Food, Energy, Environment, University of Otago.

Rawlinson, P. J. (2011). The influence of the Black and While tide: Dairy farming, landscape, and community change. Master of Social Science Thesis, University of Lincoln.

Sutherland-Downing, V., Elley, R. & Daly, A. (2003). Inventory of recreation values for rivers and lakes of Canterbury New Zealand. Environment Canterbury Report U04/14, April 2004.

Taylor, Nick; Fitzgerald, Gerard and Wayne McClintock (2001). Resource communities in New Zealand: perspectives on community formation and change. In Geoffrey Lawrence, Vaughan Higgins and Stewart Lockie (eds), Environment, Society and Natural Resource Management, Theoretical Perspectives from Australasia and the Americas, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.

Teirney, L. D., Richardson, J. and Unwin (1987). The relative value of Ashburton Rivers to NZ anglers. Fisheries Environmental Report No.78. Fisheries Research Division, NZ Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.

Tipa and Associates (2014). Cultural values and water management issues for the Hekeao/Hinds Catchment.

Unwin, M. (2009). Angler usage of lake and river fisheries managed by Fish & Game New Zealand: results from the 2007/08 national Angling Survey. Prepared by NIWA for Fish & Game, New Zealand. NIWA report CHC2009/046.

Unwin, M. & Image, K. (2003). Angler usage of lake and river fisheries managed by Fish & Game New Zealand: results from the 2001/02 national Angling Survey. Prepared by NIWA for Fish & Game, New Zealand. NIWA report CHC2003/114.

Upananda, Herath, Paragahawewa (2014). Economic impact assessments of the Hinds water quantity and quality setting process. AgResearch.

Winkworth, Cynthia L (2010). Land-use change and emerging public health risks in New Zealand: assessing Giardia risks. Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association, Vol 123 No 1322.

Wylie, Sarah (2009). Research into Needs of and Issues Relating to Newcomers and Migrants to the Ashburton District. Unpublished report.

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List of Acronyms

ADC Ashburton District Council

ECan Environment Canterbury

HW Highway

LWRP Land and Water Regional Plan

MAR Managed aquifer recharge

MAV Mean Annual Value

RDR Rangitata Diversion Race

RMA Resource Management Act (1991)

SH State Highway

ZC Zone Committee

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Attachment 1 Map of assessment area

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Attachment 2 Social outcomes, indicators and wellbeing elements

ZC Outcome For the Team Technical Indicators Social Well being Elements purposes of understanding (social) the overall implications for social wellbeing,108 each outcome is linked to one or more elements of social wellbeing.

Drinking water wells and Number of wells that do not Physical and mental health domestic supplies now and meet the drinking water in the future at least meet standard compared to current Personal, community and public national drinking water situation. safety and freedom from risk standard for E.Coli and nitrate. Direction of change in Nitrate concentration in the shallow groundwater.

Maintain existing flood Increased or decreased flows Personal, community and public control to protect small and groundwater levels safety and freedom from risk communities and farmland. Expenditure on flood control

River rating district rates

Drain/river maintenance costs

Economic growth in Hinds Number of people employed Economy, business activity, and Mayfield communities. in the agricultural sector and income and employment each farm type Transport and communications District un rate Goods and services, retail and Narrative around type of commercial space person employed Physical and mental health Input costs per ha – as it Participation in community and relates to water resource society

108 Consistent with section 5 of the Resource Management Act. The well being elements have been used in a number of social assessments conducted under the RMA.

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Economic farm surplus (EBIT)

Economic indicators, population changes, on and out farm

Average salary

Growth of GDP per capita and per FTE

Employment rate

Enhanced social wellbeing of Population statistics Lifelong learning and education rural communities. School rolls Family, social attachment and support Individual household income Participation in community and society

Sustainable, diverse and Nos of farmers engaged in Participation in community and productive land use. sustainable farm practices society

Farm ownership types and Lifelong learning and education Size of holding Economy, business activity, Average age of farmers, No of income and employment farmers and farm workers engaged in dairy, dairy support, horticulture and arable

Qualifications of farmers

Involvement in agricultural extension activities – participation in learning activities such as on-farm trials, field days, web-site access

Water quality in Nitrate concentrations Outdoor areas, natural drains/streams is improved. compared to guideline values environment and open space

Narrative around phosphorus, sediment, e-coli and water clarity

Macrophyte and periphyton

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growth and ecological health

Protect and enhance Map of locations where Outdoor areas, natural indigenous fish and habitats indigenous fish are present environment and open space in lowland streams and foothills. Flows which support Physical and mental health indigenous fish habitat and how these might change

Whitebait catch and eel catch increased

Protect and enhance habitat Flows which support trout Outdoor areas, natural for trout. habitat and narrative around environment and open space likely impacts on fish populations Lifestyles, leisure and recreation

Retain unique features and Flows and WQ indicators as Outdoor areas, natural biodiversity of dongas. above. environment and open space

Enhanced recreational Flows (habitat and ecological Outdoor areas, natural opportunities on waterways function) – ecological flows to environment and open space (eg fishing, picnicking, improve fishery; low flows in tourism). fishing season, Floods and Lifestyles, leisure and recreation freshes, mouth opening flows, Family, social attachment and extent of the drying reach, support flows for swimming. Physical and mental health WQ – contact recreation standard is met (likelihood compared to current state), periphyton guidelines, nitrate concentrations against ecological toxicity guidelines.