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National Climate and Water Briefing Sunset Over East Point, Darwin, NT (Chris Kent)

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National Climate and Water Briefing Sunset Over East Point, Darwin, NT (Chris Kent) National Climate and Water Briefing Sunset over East Point, Darwin, NT (Chris Kent) Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Welcome Dr Rob Vertessy CEO and Director of Meteorology Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Climate conditions and outlook Perry Wiles Manager, Climate Liaison Section Thunderstorm, Darwin Harbour, NT (Chris Kent) Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Severe weather and northern wet season Climate • Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers Conditions and outlook • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Heatwaves 18 July (Melbourne) 1–12 March 29 December – 6 January 1–18 January 2–7 May 28 August – 10 September 13 January – 17 January Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 The fire season Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Significant fires in all southern states, including: October • Blue Mountains, New South Wales January • Perth Hills, Western Australia Major bushfires • Gawler Ranges, South Australia • Northern Grampians and East Gippsland, Victoria February • Flinders Ranges and Adelaide Hills, South Australia • East of Hobart, Tasmania Seasonal bushfire outlook 2013–14 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Most thunderstorm activity in November • Severe thunderstorms and March • large hail (>2 cm diameter) • December to February quieter than • damaging wind gusts normal—conditions generally too dry (>90 km/h) • Some notable severe storm events, all with Thunderstorms • tornadoes tornadoes: • heavy rain that can lead to • Hornsby (18 November 2013) flash flooding • Guyra area (23 November 2013) Coffs Harbour hailstones, summer 2013-2014, ABC • Cooma area (26 December 2013) Coffs Harbour hailstones (ABC) Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Australian region tropical 10 cyclones Cyclones making landfall 6 Tropical cyclones Severe tropical cyclones 5 Severe tropical cyclones at 2 landfall: Christine and Ita Tropical cyclones in Australian region November 2013 – April 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, 26 December – 3 January Tropical cyclone Christine 30 December 2013 Storm surges wash sand across the road as Tropical Cyclone Christine batters Port Hedland. Source: News Limited Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, 29 January – 3 February Tropical cyclone Dylan 31 January 2014 Great Keppel Island after a storm surge from tropical cyclone Dylan (Source: http://www.abc.net.au/capricornia photo by: Margaret Gearin) Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals 10 to 17 April Tropical cyclone Ita 11 April 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 A typical wet season Burst (active) and break (inactive) periods can First onset of the last from a few days to a few weeks monsoon usually Build-up period: October–December in late December Hot, humid Isolated thunderstorms Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Wet season 2013–14 5 November: Early January: thunderstorms over extremely hot Darwin, 104.8 mm rainfall at airport Short burst in Monsoon conditions March 2013 monsoon conditions began at Darwin on rainfall deciles at end of December 22 November Mid-January to mid-February: the March: among the Overall December Top End experienced almost Classic 'build-up': driest on record for Early April: heavy rainfall over the Kimberly rainfall was 5 weeks of monsoon conditions high temperatures and the Top End and western Northern Territory, but not from below average high humidity a monsoon pattern Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, October 2013 – April 2014 Northern wet season rainfall Wet season rainfall at Darwin Airport Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall deciles, October 2013 – April 2014 Northern wet season rainfall Wet season rainfall at Darwin Airport Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Severe weather and northern wet season Climate • Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers Conditions and outlook • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Maximum temperature anomaly, +0.98 °C Temperature • Minimum temperature anomaly, +0.46 °C March • Mean temperature anomaly, +0.72 °C Maximum temperature anomaly Minimum temperature anomaly Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Very dry conditions across eastern Australia and above average over Rainfall the west • Large areas of serious rainfall deficiencies in northeastern September–January New South Wales and inland Queensland Deciles, September 2013 – January 2014 Deficiencies, September 2013 – January 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Above average rainfall over much of Australia through February and Rainfall March • Some relief but areas of serious rainfall deficiencies persist in inland February–March Queensland and New South Wales Deciles, February 2014 – March 2014 Deficiencies, September 2013 – March 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Much of the rain fell around 8–12 April Rainfall • Not the 'autumn break' • Trend of dry autumns across southwest Western Australia and April to-date southern areas of South Australia and Victoria continues Rainfall totals, 1–28 April 2014 Percentage of mean rainfall, 1–28 April 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Severe weather and northern wet season Climate • Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers Conditions and outlook • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Sea surface temperatures March value of NINO3.4: 0.0 °C Current value of NINO3.4: +0.3 °C Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 ENSO signals • Westerly wind bursts in recent weeks have led to sub-surface warming in Sub-surface warming tropical Pacific Ocean Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 UK data unavailable Outlook for the Pacific Ocean Average NINO3.4 forecast from seven international climate models (Australia, EU, Japan, France, US (NASA and NOAA) and UK) Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Stage 2 (ALERT) Stage 3 (EL NIÑO) ENSO tracker • 3 of 4 criteria must be satisfied to advance to each stage • ALERT: greater than ~70% likelihood of an El Niño Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Typical El Niño •G reatest impact normally occurs during impacts on rainfall winter/spring Winter–spring rainfall deciles from 12 El Niño events Summer rainfall deciles from 12 El Niño events Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Impact variability Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Severe weather and northern wet season Climate • Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers Conditions and outlook • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Most of Western Australia (south of Rainfall outlook the tropics) likely to see a wetter than normal season • Northern tropics likely to be drier than May–July Historical accuracy normal Chance of above average rainfall, May–July 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Most of Western Australia (south of Rainfall outlook the tropics) likely to see a wetter than normal season • Northern tropics likely to be drier than May–July Historical accuracy normal Chance of above average rainfall, May–July 2014 Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Warmer days more likely in Tasmania and far southern fringe of Western Temperature outlook Australia and Victoria • Parts of Western Australian interior more likely to have cooler than normal May–July daytime temperatures • Warmer nights more likely over most of southern Australia and the Kimberley Chance of above average maximum temperature Chance of above average minimum temperature Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Above average rainfall over much of Australia since February, however areas of serious rainfall deficiencies persist in inland Queensland and New South Wales • It is now likely (greater than 70% likelihood) that an El Niño event will develop during
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