National Climate and Water Briefing Sunset Over East Point, Darwin, NT (Chris Kent)

National Climate and Water Briefing Sunset over East Point, Darwin, NT (Chris Kent)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Welcome

Dr Rob Vertessy CEO and Director of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Climate conditions and outlook

Perry Wiles Manager, Climate Liaison Section Thunderstorm, Darwin Harbour, NT (Chris Kent)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Severe weather and northern wet season Climate • Recent conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers Conditions and outlook • Outlook for rainfall and temperature

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Heatwaves 18 July (Melbourne) 1–12 March 29 December – 6 January

1–18 January 2–7 May 28 August – 10 September 13 January – 17 January

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 The fire season

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Significant fires in all southern states, including: October • Blue Mountains, New South Wales January

• Perth Hills, Western Australia Major bushfires • Gawler Ranges, South Australia • Northern Grampians and East Gippsland, Victoria February • Flinders Ranges and Adelaide Hills, South Australia • East of Hobart, Tasmania Seasonal bushfire outlook 2013–14

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Most thunderstorm activity in November • Severe thunderstorms and March • large hail (>2 cm diameter) • December to February quieter than • damaging wind gusts normal—conditions generally too dry (>90 km/h) • Some notable severe storm events, all with Thunderstorms • tornadoes tornadoes: • heavy rain that can lead to • Hornsby (18 November 2013) flash flooding • Guyra area (23 November 2013) Coffs Harbour hailstones, summer 2013-2014, ABC • Cooma area (26 December 2013)

Coffs Harbour hailstones (ABC)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Australian region tropical 10 cyclones Cyclones making landfall 6

Tropical cyclones Severe tropical cyclones 5 Severe tropical cyclones at 2 landfall: Christine and Ita

Tropical cyclones in Australian region November 2013 – April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, 26 December – 3 January

Tropical cyclone Christine

30 December 2013

Storm surges wash sand across the road as Tropical Cyclone Christine batters Port Hedland. Source: News Limited

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, 29 January – 3 February

Tropical cyclone

Dylan

31 January 2014

Great Keppel Island after a storm surge from tropical cyclone Dylan (Source: http://www.abc.net.au/capricornia photo by: Margaret Gearin)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals 10 to 17 April

Tropical cyclone

Ita

11 April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 A typical wet season

Burst (active) and break (inactive) periods can First onset of the last from a few days to a few weeks monsoon usually Build-up period: October–December in late December Hot, humid Isolated thunderstorms

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Wet season 2013–14

5 November: Early January: thunderstorms over extremely hot Darwin, 104.8 mm rainfall at airport Short burst in Monsoon conditions March 2013 monsoon conditions began at Darwin on rainfall deciles at end of December 22 November Mid-January to mid-February: the March: among the Overall December Top End experienced almost Classic 'build-up': driest on record for Early April: heavy rainfall over the Kimberly rainfall was 5 weeks of monsoon conditions high temperatures and the Top End and western Northern Territory, but not from below average high humidity a monsoon pattern

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall totals, October 2013 – April 2014

Northern wet season rainfall

Wet season rainfall at Darwin Airport

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Rainfall deciles, October 2013 – April 2014

Northern wet season rainfall

Wet season rainfall at Darwin Airport

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Maximum temperature anomaly, +0.98 °C Temperature • Minimum temperature anomaly,

+0.46 °C March • Mean temperature anomaly, +0.72 °C

Maximum temperature anomaly Minimum temperature anomaly

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Very dry conditions across eastern Australia and above average over Rainfall the west • Large areas of serious rainfall deficiencies in northeastern September–January New South Wales and inland Queensland

Deciles, September 2013 – January 2014 Deficiencies, September 2013 – January 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Above average rainfall over much of Australia through February and Rainfall March

• Some relief but areas of serious rainfall deficiencies persist in inland February–March Queensland and New South Wales

Deciles, February 2014 – March 2014 Deficiencies, September 2013 – March 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Much of the rain fell around 8–12 April

Rainfall • Not the 'autumn break'

• Trend of dry autumns across southwest Western Australia and April to-date southern areas of South Australia and Victoria continues

Rainfall totals, 1–28 April 2014 Percentage of mean rainfall, 1–28 April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Sea surface temperatures

March value of NINO3.4: 0.0 °C Current value of NINO3.4: +0.3 °C

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 ENSO signals • Westerly wind bursts in recent weeks

have led to sub-surface warming in Sub-surface warming tropical Pacific Ocean

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 UK data unavailable Outlook for the Pacific Ocean

Average NINO3.4 forecast from seven international climate models (Australia, EU, Japan, France, US (NASA and NOAA) and UK)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Stage 2 (ALERT) Stage 3 (EL NIÑO)

ENSO tracker

• 3 of 4 criteria must be satisfied to advance to each stage • ALERT: greater than ~70% likelihood of an El Niño

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014

Typical El Niño •G reatest impact normally occurs during impacts on rainfall winter/spring

Winter–spring rainfall deciles from 12 El Niño events Summer rainfall deciles from 12 El Niño events

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Impact variability

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Most of Western Australia (south of Rainfall outlook the tropics) likely to see a wetter than normal season • Northern tropics likely to be drier than May–July Historical accuracy normal

Chance of above average rainfall, May–July 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Warmer days more likely in Tasmania and far southern fringe of Western Temperature outlook Australia and Victoria • Parts of Western Australian interior

more likely to have cooler than normal May–July daytime temperatures • Warmer nights more likely over most of southern Australia and the Kimberley

Chance of above average maximum temperature Chance of above average minimum temperature

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Above average rainfall over much of Australia since February, however areas of serious rainfall deficiencies persist in inland Queensland and New South Wales • It is now likely (greater than 70% likelihood) that an El Niño event will develop during winter In summary • El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of southern and eastern Australia • Wetter conditions more likely in Western Australia, south of the tropics; drier across the northern tropics

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Thank you

Questions?

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Hydrological conditions and outlook

Dr Paul Feikema Manager, Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Hydrological • Recent flooding • March hydrological conditions conditions and • Water markets outlook • Streamflow forecasts April–June

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Major flooding in Queensland and Western Australia Floods • Severe thunderstorms through western parts of Queensland resulted in major flooding (March) November 2013 – • Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones Dylan and Ita led to river level April 2014 rises along Queensland's north and central coast

Highest flood level recorded November 2013–April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Flooding

November–April

Highest flood level: November 2011–April 2012 November 2012–April 2013 November 2013–April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Queensland floods

March–April

Highest flood level reached 16 March–16 April 2014 Barron Falls ( ABC News) Burdekin Falls Dam (Scott Adams)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Dry soils, lower rainfall, higher temperatures

Lower layer soil moisture, February 2014 Rainfall, March 2014 Mean temperature, March 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Trend in observed streamflows

November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Near median March streamflows

November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Water storage levels compared with same time last year

@ 21 April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Beardmore Dam

Murray–Darling Basin Copeton Dam storage levels

Hume Dam

Dartmouth Dam

@ 19 March 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Beardmore Dam

Murray–Darling Basin Copeton Dam storage levels

Hume Dam

Dartmouth Dam

@ 21 April 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Entitlement and • All jurisdictions reported trade activity, except Northern Territory allocation trade • New South Wales reported highest entitlement and allocation trade volumes December 2013 – • Average trade size varies significantly between jurisdictions February 2014

Entitlement trade total: 1047 GL Allocation trade total: 1529 GL (2106 trades) (7548 trades)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Cumulative and inter-region trades

Net inter-region allocation trades, southern Cumulative national entitlement trades Cumulative national allocation trades Murray–Darling Basin December 2013–February 2014

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Streamflow forecasts • Near median streamflows more likely • Moderate or low forecast skill for most locations; very low skill for southeast April–June 2014 Queensland and Victoria

Most likely streamflow outcome Forecast skill

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 • Higher than normal rainfall across most catchments in eastern Australia • Return to more median streamflows in March In summary • Decreased water storage levels across eastern Australia • Near median streamflows more likely for April–June

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Thank you

Questions?

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014 Next briefing Focus on El Niño

Thursday 29 May 2014 Autumn in Bright, VIC (Tony Harding)

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 30 April 2014