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Adaptive Reservoir Operation Strategies Under Changing Boundary Conditions the Case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir

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Adaptive Reservoir Operation Strategies Under Changing Boundary Conditions the Case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy M.Sc.-Ing. Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher Sharkiya,Egypt Supervisors: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann Date of Submission : 07 July 2010 Date of Examination: 10 November 2010 Darmstadt 2010 D17 DARMSTADT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR By Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher M.Sc. in Civil Engineering A thesis Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Supervised by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Institute of Water and Environment Munich University of Technology, Germany Darmstadt 2010 i Technische Universitaet Darmstadt Fachbereich Bauingenieurwesen und Geodaesie Institut fuer Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft Fachgebiet Ingenieurhydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung (ihwb) ADAPTIVE TALSPERRENSTEUERUNG UNTER VERAENDERLICHEN RAND- BEDINGUNGEN - DAS FALLBEISPIEL ASWANSTAUDAMM Dem Fachbereich Bauingenieurwesen und Geodaesie der Technischen Universitaet Darmstadt zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktor-Ingenieurs (Dr.-Ing.) vorgelegte Disserta- tion von M.Sc. Ing. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher aus Sharkiya, Aegypten Darmstadt 2010 Tag der Einreichung: 07 July 2010 Tag der muendlichen Pruefung: 10 November 2010 D17 ii STATEMENT This thesis is submitted to Darmstadt University of Technology for the degree of Doctor of Phi- losophy in Civil Engineering. No part of this thesis has been submitted for a degree or a qualification at any other University or institution. The work included in this thesis was carried out in Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management - Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering - Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy - Darmstadt University of Technology- Germany, under supervision of Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski and Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann. M.Sc. Eng. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher Sharkiya, Egypt Darmstadt 2010 D17 iii Erklaerung Hiermit erklaere ich, dass ich in der Vergangenheit weder an der Technischen Universitaet Darmstadt noch an einer anderen Technischen Hochschule oder Universitaet an einer Promotion gearbeitet oder Aehnliches versucht haben dass ich keinerlei Einwaende gegen die Oeffentlichkeit der muendlichen Pruefung erhebe dass meine Dissertation nur unter Einbeziehung der von mir genannten Hilfen von mir selbstaendig verfasst und angefertigt wurde. M.Sc. Ing. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher aus Sharkiya, Aegypten Darmstadt 2010 D17 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT It is deep-rooted in the Islamic traditions and conducts that the "one who does not express thanks to people, cannot be grateful to Allah (The Lord)". Therefore, after praising and thanking Allah, Glorified and Exalted is He, I would like to use this little space to express my gratitude to the people without their support, this work would have not been realized. First, I would like to thank Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski, my research supervisor, for his continuous technical support throughout my Ph.D. study. I appreciate the time and effort that he has devoted to me. His sincere help and insightful assistance and guidance have been extremely helpful to me. My sincere gratitude is also extended to my supervisor Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann for his support, encouragement and advice throughout my research work. A special thank goes to Prof. Dr. Matthias Becker, Institute of Physical Geodesy- TU Darm- stadt, for his kind cooperation and providing reference materials and satellite altimetry data for Aswan High Dam Reservoir. To al1 my colleagues at Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Section of En- gineering Hydrology and Water Management, I acknowledge your support and kind companion- ship. I wish to acknowledge Darmstadt University of Technology for providing me wonderful and all needed research facilities. I wish to acknowledge with gratitude and appreciation the Egyptian Cultural Bureau and Study Mission in Berlin, Germany, for being supportive and helpful. Also I would like to extend my sincere appreciation and gratitude to the Egyptian Government for the financial support. Last but not the least, I am extremely grateful to my mother, brothers, and sister for their support and prayers for me. My wife, and Zeyad, Mohamed and Reem, my children, have been always to me like candles when it was so dark. The care of my wife and the smile of my children defeated any feeling of depression. M.Sc. Eng. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher Sharkiya, Egypt Darmstadt 2010 D17 v ABSTRACT ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR During the lifetime of a reservoir its boundary conditions are continuously changing. Such changes include global changes such as climate and economic change as well as national, re- gional and local changes. National changes are often induced by modified political objectives, regional changes might include supply and demand alterations, while local changes include modi- fications directly linked to the reservoir infrastructure itself, e.g. reduced storage volume due to sedimentation or dam enlargement or other technical modifications allowing or forcing modified operation strategies and rules. It must be the objective to be prepared for such changes by analysing the consequences of poten- tial future changes, defined by a set a feasible scenarios (multiple futures). If the consequences of development scenarios are analysed before the changes occur, immediate adequate reactions be- come possible. The assessment of sustainable future development includes multiple criteria chosen from the eco- nomic, social and ecologic sectors. Adequate political, administrative and technical measures have to be taken to foster sustainable development. In this thesis BlueM, a model developed by the Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources En- gineering, Section for Engineering Hydrology and Water Management of the Darmstadt Univer- sity of Technology, Germany, will be used to analyse future development of water resources yield and demand and related modifications of the infrastructure for the case of the Aswan high dam reservoir. High emphasis will be given to the technical and economic aspects of the problem without neglecting the importance and influence of the other sectors. Analysis will be based on the assumption of regional and local change scenarios, their model based analysis and the proposal of adequate reactions by identifying adaptive reservoir operation strategies. vi ABSTRAKT ADAPTIVE TALSPERRENSTEUERUNG UNTER VERAENDERLICHEN RANDBEDINGUN- GEN - DAS FALLBEISPIEL ASWANSTAUDAMM Waehrend der Lebensdauer eines Staudammes koennen sich die Randbedingungen jederzeit aen- dern. Zu diesen veraenderlichen Randbedingungen zaehlen globale Veraenderungen wie der Klimawandel oder oekonomische Veraenderungen sowie nationale, regionale oder lokale Aende- rungen. Nationale Veraenderungen werden haeufig durch politische Entscheidungen ausgeloest. Zu regionalen Aenderungen zaehlen z.B. der Wasserbedarf oder das verfuegbare Abfluss Volu- men. Lokale Veraenderungen stehen in direkter Verbindung mit Aenderungen an der Bauwerks- struktur, z.B. reduzierte Speichervolumina durch Sedimentation, Dammvergroe erungen oder andere technische Ma nahmen, die einen veraenderten Betrieb des Staudammes erfordern oder erlauben. Zielsetzung ist es, auf die moeglichen Veraenderungen vorbereitet zu sein. Hierzu koennen die Auswirkungen von zukuenftigen Veraenderungen mittels Szenarien analysiert werden. Auf die- sem Wege kann beim Eintritt der Veraenderung direkt und adaequat reagiert werden. Die Beurteilung der nachhaltigen Entwicklung unter veraenderten Randbedingungen erfolgt mit mehreren Kriterien aus dem wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und oekologischen Bereich. Entsprechende politische, adminstrative und technische Ma nahmen muessen ergriffen werden, um eine nach- haltige Entwicklung zu unterstuetzen. Im Rahme der Arbeit kommt das Modell BlueM zur Analyse veraenderter Wasserverfuegbar- keitsmengen, veraendertem Wasserverbrauch und entsprechenden Veraenderungen der Bau- werksstruktur sowie der Betriebsregeln zum Einsatz. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt wird auf die technischen und wirtschafltichen Aspekte der Fragestellung gelegt, es werden aber auch die ueb- rigen Bereiche betrachtet. Ausgehend von angenommen Szenarien fuer regionale und lokale Veraenderugnen werden diese modelltechnisch untersucht. Basierend auf der Analyse der Modellergebnisse werden Anpassungstrategien fuer den adaptiven Talsperrenbetrieb abgeleitet. vii CONTENTS TITEL-PAGE .. i STATEMENT . .. iii ERKLAERUNG.. .. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .. ...v ABSTRACT . .. vi ABSTRAKT . .. ... vii CONTENTS . .. ... ... viii LIST OF TABLES. .. ... xiii LIST OF FIGURES . .. ... ... xiv LIST OF ABBREVIATION & ACRONYMS .. xxiii 1 INTRODUCTION .. .. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ......................................................................................
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