By Jack Mansour Below are my thoughts about the 140th Run For The Roses. The will be a sentimental choice of many due to his name. His Bostonian tradition of writing this article continues. Whether you’re in the owners named him to honor the victims of the Boston Marathon industry or a casual fan whose only brush with the sport of kings is an bombing although they weren’t able to get their first choice of annual Derby party, this is written for you. The goal is to convert new names… BOSTON STRONG. WICKED has to overcome his outside post fans to the sport one Derby at a time while including enough detail but will be flying in the stretch and could roll by everyone just as he and insight for the semi-serious handicapper. Here’s my standard did in the Wood Memorial. Although these three horses seem to be disclaimer… this analysis is FREE and you get what you pay for. Big better than the rest of the field, there are many horses within spitting Caveat: this analysis is way overdue to be completely wrong (the distance that can leap over these three with some improvement and “Jack’s Picks” section below has included the winner 5 of the last 6 a little racing luck. Any horse in this field has a chance, so don’t let years including the last 4 in a row), so follow this at your own peril… me or anyone else talk you off a horse. Here’s a look at the field by running style… The discussion of this year’s Kentucky Derby needs to begin with CALIFORNIA CHROME, who appears to be head and shoulders Pace Scenario: A lot has been written about how fast the above the field. He has won his last 4 races by a combined 24 ¼ pace will be in this year’s Derby. There are a number of horses that lengths against the best California has to offer. He also owns the best have won their prep races by racing on or near the lead but there are two speed figures of any horse in the race in his last two races. Being no sprinters stretching out. The latter is what typically creates a a great grandson of the great A.P. Indy, he has gotten better with the suicidal pace. The former is probably a function of the fact that the longer distances and should love the mile and a quarter distance of two of the tracks that host the premiere prep races in determining the Derby. CHROME could simply be the ONE. No horse has come the field, Gulfstream Park in Florida and Santa Anita in California, tend close to him and he’s been running away from them in the stretch. Is to be speed favoring tracks. Even Aqueduct in New York, The he the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years? I hope so but don’t think Fairgrounds in New Orleans and Oaklawn Park in Arkansas have had so. There’s a chink in his armor that could cost him the race… he has somewhat of a speed bias this year. I wouldn’t rule out a slower than had some problems breaking from the gate in past races but has been expected pace with the winner coming from the first flight. The able to overcome it in smaller fields with dominating performances. I jockeys read the Racing Form too. Will a smart veteran jockey sense will be watching his start very carefully. If he hesitates at all coming a slow pace and steal this one?… Gary Stevens, Calvin Borel, Joel out of the gate, he may find himself further off the pace than he’s Rosario and John Velazquez are all capable of doing it. From a pace used to and it could take him off his game, especially once he starts perspective, this year’s Derby is actually a well-balanced race with an tasting the dirt kicked in his face. I’m not convinced he’ll like the equal number of horses wanting to be on or near the lead as there deeper track of Churchill Downs after dominating on the speed are horses that sit back and make one run. There will be a fair pace favoring, hard tracks out West. He’s beatable. He may not even go at which to run where the best horse with the best trip will likely win. off as the favorite. DANZA and WICKED STRONG have both gotten a I will pay particular attention to horses that may have been stuck on lot of attention this week by the experts and either of these two may a speed favoring track in prep races only to “wake up” on the deeper very well take over the favorite role if the betting public starts to Churchill Downs dirt on Derby Day. WICKED STRONG is an example doubt whether a California-bred can win the race for the first time of this with his dominating New York performance from off the pace since 1962. after being stuck behind a speed bias in Florida all winter. CANDY BOY, MEDAL COUNT, DANCE WITH FATE, INTENSE HOLIDAY and DANZA (and, yes, he was named after the actor, Tony longshot VINCEREMOS are all candidates to really move up on the Danza, who will be in attendance as a guest of the owners) is a very track. lightly raced and improving colt and has been training lights out at Churchill Downs this week. He may be the “wise guy” pick this year. Frontrunners: WILDCAT RED is the aforementioned speed His dominating performance in the Arkansas Derby seemed to come horse who benefitted from prepping in Florida. CALIFORNIA CHROME out of nowhere and puts him right there with CHROME. With only 4 in California. VICAR’S IN TROUBLE and Rosie Napravnik will have no career starts, he may have the most upside of any horse in the field, choice but to gun from the rail to establish position, likely setting the so watch out for him. Being a son of Street Boss (thus the Tony pace into the clubhouse turn with UNCLE SIGH and WILDCAT RED just Danza/Who’s The Boss name tie in), he is bred to love the longer to his outside. HARRY’S HOLIDAY may be forced to join this group distance of the Derby and could just be getting really good at the right with an inside post as well. CHITU will be the outside speed allowing time. I, personally, believe he will be over-bet and may not be able to Martin Garcia to control his own destiny. CHITU lost a shoe in a overcome his inexperience. Only Big Brown in 2008 was able to win workout this week and his connections have had some indecisiveness this race with 4 or fewer career races and many have tried. WICKED as to where to run (you typically want to see everything go perfectly STRONG is not only getting attention from the experts due to his last leading up to this race); but, he is doing well and may get the best trip race performance and his appearance on the track this week; but, he of any horse in the race… if he’s good enough. He also has the By Jack Mansour pedigree on his dam’s side to get the distance and the speed from his who has turned heads this week… INTENSE HOLIDAY turned in the sire (a very fast sprinter). Like DANZA, though, he’s inexperienced best workout of any horse in this race when he blew the doors off his with only 4 career starts. stable mate WE MISS ARTIE last Sunday. HOLIDAY is sitting on a big race, ARTIE is not. Like WE MISS ARTIE, DANCE WITH FATE has Stalkers: DANZA may end up inheriting the rail like he did in performed better on synthetic and turf surfaces, not dirt. While ARTIE the Arkansas Derby leading the second flight of runners. This 18 horse has looked shitty this week, DANCE has looked like a million bucks. field is a far cry from the 8 horse Arkansas Derby. His inexperience DANCE may be worth giving a second chance on dirt simply on may catch up to him. CHROME may end up in this group with a good appearance. If the Derby was a beauty contest, he’d be odds on. start, which would make him awfully tough to beat assuming he can carry his California track with him to Kentucky. SAMRAAT and Deep Closers: WICKED STRONG and COMMANDING CURVE GENERAL A ROD will likely sit on the outside of this group ready to will likely let the others do all the running up front and both will be move in the stretch. Can either of them get the mile and a quarter running in the stretch. WICKED will win the 140th Run For The Roses distance? They both may be better suited at a mile and an eighth or with a repeat performance of his last race. COMMANDING CURVE less. TAPITURE was looking like one of the top contenders until he comes out of the same barn as last year’s fast closing longshot 2nd inexplicably ran a dud of a race in the Arkansas Derby. If we can find place finisher, GOLDEN SOUL (who also got into the race at the last an excuse for his last race, then TAPITURE could be a great value from minute with Derby week defections). the same owner/trainer team that won yesterday’s Kentucky Oaks with UNTAPPABLE.