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Barn swallow Barn swallow

120 Figure 3: Arrival date (day of year) of the 100 barn swallow in relation to spring temperature (average 80 February to April temperature). As Day of year spring temperature 60 yy = = –6.9806x -6.9806x + + 132.19 132.19 Day of the year of Day increases the arrival R–2 = 0.16382 R = 0.1638 time is earlier 40 (negative 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 relationship). ο AverageAverage spring Spring Temperature temperature ( C) (°C)

atmosphere because leaves photosynthesise for effective way of demonstrating the impact of longer periods. There are currently no phenological rising temperature on the natural environment. The 10th Scientific Statement models available for birds, but, based on historic development of phenological models has records, we would expect the trend towards earlier enabled projections to be made of what might The impact of rising spring temperature on trees, insects and birds in Ireland arrival dates to continue, at least in the short-term. be expected to happen in future as temperatures Survival will ultimately depend on an adequate continue to rise. Further research is required on food supply being available when they do arrive. the interactions between interdependent phenophases to determine possible implications Useful websites Observations of the timing of phenophases in for ecosystem dynamics under a range of climate both plants and animals have proven to be an change scenarios. Nature Watch (http://phenology.biodiversityireland.ie/) Phenology at Trinity College Dublin (www.tcd.ie/botany/phenology) Landscape scale phenology at University College Cork (http://cmrc.ucc.ie/pages/research_project_page.php?project_code=phenology) Greenwave – phenology for primary schools (www.greenwave.ie) 105 JFK mean Biology.ie – phenology for secondary schools (www.biology.ie) Johnstown mean Valentia mean International Phenological Gardens network (www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/struktur/institute/ NBG mean nptw/agrarmet/phaenologie/ipg) 100 NBG trend line JFK trend line National Phenology Network, USA (www.usanpn.org) Johnstown trend line 95 Valentia trend line

Day of the year of Day 90 THIS IS THE TENTH IN A SERIES OF SCIENTIFIC STATEMENTS BY THE CCSC. PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED STATEMENTS • Economics and Climate Change • Climate Change and Irish Agriculture • Climate and Sea Level Change 85 • Greenhouse Gases: An Irish Perspective • Climate Change and Water Resources in Ireland • Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity • Climate Change and Health in Ireland • Market-based Policies for Reducing 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Carbon Dioxide Emissions • Recent Irish Weather Extremes and Climate Change

To ensure you are added to our mailing list or to receive previously published statements, please email contact details to: Figure 4: Phenological model output for the timing of birch tree leafing at four stations (JFK – John F. Kennedy [email protected] or visit www.ria.ie/Our-Work/Committees/Committees-for-Science/climate-change/statements-(1).aspx Arboretum, Co. Wexford; Johnstown – Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford; Valentia – Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry; and NBG – National Botanic Garden, Glasnevin) in Ireland, 1950–2100. R O YAL IRISH ACADEMY RIA 19 Dawson Street, Dublin 2. Tel: 01 676 4222 Fax: 01 676 2346 Email [email protected] www.ria.ie to print_Layout 1 28/03/2012 13:08 Page 2

Detecting the impact of climate change, in partic- more than 100,000 phenological records from projects have been estab- SUB-SAHARAN BIRD SPECIES TREND OVER TIME ular rising temperature, on our natural environment 20 European countries, including Ireland, to lished to encourage the BeechBeech leaf leaf unfolding unfolding at atValentia Valentia Observatory Observatory Common cuckoo Cuculus canorus Later can be a challenging task. In spring, increasing demonstrate to policy makers that climate general public to collect phe- Common swift Apus apus Earlier 140 temperature is the overriding environmental trigger change was having a detectable impact on the nological data on a range of Sand martin Riparia riparia Earlier for plant and animal development in temperate natural environment. common spring and autumn Barn swallow Hirundo rustica Earlier regions, although other environmental parameters, events such as the arrival of Common house martin Delichon urbicum Earlier such as precipitation and day length, play a role. Where does the swallows, the appearance of 120 Whinchat Saxicola rubetra Earlier The timing of leafing of trees, arrival of migratory the clouded yellow butterfly Northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe Earlier birds and appearance of insects all signal the phenological data and leafing and leaf fall of Common grasshopper warbler Locustella naevia Earlier Day of year of Day Day year of 100 arrival of spring and are strongly influenced by come from? birch. Members of the public Sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus Later Common whitethroat Sylvia communis Earlier local temperature. When spring temperature is are invited to record, on a Willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus Earlier higher than average these events will occur earlier website, the location and date There are many long-established phenology net- 80 in the year, and when spring temperature is lower on which they observe these works throughout the world, such as the 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Table 1: Trends in arrival dates of common summer migrants to Ireland over a 31-year period (1969–1999). than average, as was the case in 2010 and International Phenological Gardens (IPG) phenophases. Nature Watch Figure 1: Timing (day of year) of beech leaf unfolding at 2011, we expect to see these events occurring network, the Finnish Phenology Network and the (http://phenology.biodiversi- Valentia Observatory 1970–2010. FlameFlameFlame carpet carpet carpet moth (Xanthorhoe(Xanthorhoe (Xanthorhoe designata) designata) designatamothmoth) later in the season. The study of the timing of phenology network established by the Royal tyireland.ie/) is the recently these life-cycle events in plants and animals is Meteorological Society in 1875. Ireland is part established Irish website that, (a) (b) 180 180 160 phenophases, such as bird arrival dates and 160 called phenology and the developmental of the IPG network, which was estab- it is envisaged, will yield valuable data on which insect (primary food source) appearance dates, events are referred to as phenologi- lished in the late 1950s. A to conduct research in future. 140 respond differently to rising temperature, a mis- 140 cal events, or phenophases number of genetically identical match in the timing between the bird and its for short. trees, such as beech, birch, What the data have 140 140 120 food source may occur, which in turn may have 120 poplar and cherry, were revealed year of Day DayDay of of year year Phenophases that occur detrimental implications for bird survival rates. NumberNumber days of of days 120 distributed to more than 120 in autumn, such as leaf 50 locations through- Some recently analysed data from Ireland has colouring, leaf fall 8080 100 100 out Europe, and the shown that leafing of a range of tree species What does the future hold? 100100 160 160 and bird departure timing of a range of has steadily occurred earlier since the 1970s3 are certainly influ- 1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005 phenophases, such as (Figure 1). Phenological models, using output from global enced by temperature bud burst, leaf unfold- climate models, that predict bud burst dates of but the main environ- ing, flowering, fruiting, In addition, the arrival time of sub-Saharan birch suggest that birch leafing will continue to Figure 2: Flame carpet moth (a) appearance time and (b) flight mental cue driving the leaf colouring and leaf migrant bird species is also earlier4 (Table 1) advance (i.e. occur earlier) as spring temperature timing of these events is period, Raphoe, Co. Donegal. Appearance time is getting fall, were systematically and insects such as the flame carpet moth are rises (Figure 4). There is every reason to believe earlier while the length of the flight period is extending. Dashed shortening day-length. recorded each year. not only appearing earlier, but are also exhibit- that this response will also hold true for other tem- line represents the 95% confidence interval. B g eech leaf unfoldin ing a longer flight period (length of time perate tree species. Earlier leafing can have P er. By examining the timing of hoto: Markus Eugst Arrival dates of migratory birds between first and last sighting) (Figure 2). All of positive and negative effects on forests and horti- phenophases through time it is possi- and appearance dates of insects are these advancing trends have been attributed, at culture. Earlier leafing can result in trees being ble to determine whether temperatures were collected at various locations and published reg- least in part, to rising spring temperature. When vulnerable to late frosts, which could have nega- relatively higher or lower than usual. Phenology, ularly. More recently, a series of National spring temperature is relatively high these events tive implications for the fruit industry. On the other and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy in particular spring phenology, is sensitive to Phenology Networks (NPN) in the USA (USA- occur earlier in the year (Figure 3). hand, early leafing results in a longer growing temperature and is therefore widely used as an NPN), Sweden (SWE-NPN) and Ireland season, because the leaves remain on the trees indicator of temperature in climate change (IE-NPN), have been established to incorporate The studies mentioned here have focused on indi- for longer. This, in turn, would ensure that more research. Indeed, the IPCC’s 4th Assessment a wider range of species, including plants, vidual groups of species. But if interdependent carbon dioxide (CO2) is removed from the Report1 used the results of a study2 containing insects and birds. In addition, ‘citizen science’ 3.Donnelly, A., Salamin, N. and Jones, M.B. 2006 Changes in tree phenology: an indicator of spring warming in Ireland? Biology 1.IPCC (2007) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Available online at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ publications_ 106B (1), 47–55. Available online at: http://www.jstor.org/ stable/ and_data/ ar4/syr/en/contents.html pdfplus/ 20728577.pdf 2.Menzel, A., Sparks, T.H., Estrella, N., et al. 2006 European phenological response to climate change matches the warming 4.Donnelly, A., Cooney, T., Jennings, E., Buscardo, E. and Jones, M. 2009 Response of birds to climatic variability; evidence from pattern. Global Change Biology 12, 1–8. the western fringe of Europe. International Journal of Biometeorology53, 211–20. Barn swallow (Hirundo rustica)