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NYFABF/Schoen Cooperman Horserace Poll

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NYFABF/Schoen Cooperman Horserace Poll Methodology Schoen Cooperman Research completed 1,003 interviews with likely 2021 NYC Democratic Primary voters between May 4 and May 9, 2021 on behalf of New Yorkers for a Better Future. The poll utilized a mixed methodology of live phone, IVR, text-to-web, and online interviews. Poll respondents were reached using random selection procedures and they were required to pass a series of screening questions in order to ensure they are likely to vote in the June 22, 2021 Democratic Primary Election. The margin of error for this poll is +/-3% at the 95% confidence level. Screening Questions 1) What is your age? 18-29 16% 30-39 22% 40-49 15% 50-64 24% 65 or older 23% 2) Are you registered to vote in New York City? Yes 100% No [END] -- 3) What is your zip code? [CODE BY COUNTY] Brooklyn 31% Manhattan 28% Queens 22% Bronx 14% Staten Island 5% 4) Do you or any of your family members work in financial services, telecommunications, advertising or public relations, news media, technology, marketing or market research, politics or political campaigns or government? Financial services 6% Telecommunications 1% Advertising or public relations [END] -- News media [END] -- Technology 7% Marketing or market research [END] -- Politics or political campaigns [END] -- Government [END] -- None of these fields 87% 5) With which party are you registered to vote? Republican [END] -- Democrat 100% Independent [END] -- Some other political party [END] -- Not sure [END] -- LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE 6) How likely are you to vote in the June 2021 Democratic Primary election for Mayor of New York City? Absolutely certain 66% Very likely 34% Possibly [END] -- Not very likely [END] -- Not at all likely [END] -- 2 Favorability Ratings Here is a short list of people and organizations in the news. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. 7) Andrew Cuomo TOTAL FAVORABLE 65% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 28% Very favorable 36% Somewhat favorable 29% Somewhat unfavorable 17% Very unfavorable 11% Not sure 7% 8) Bill de Blasio TOTAL FAVORABLE 52% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 40% Very favorable 18% Somewhat favorable 34% Somewhat unfavorable 17% Very unfavorable 23% Not sure 8% 9) Andrew Yang TOTAL FAVORABLE 61% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 21% Very favorable 28% Somewhat favorable 33% Somewhat unfavorable 15% Very unfavorable 6% Not sure 18% 3 10) Eric Adams TOTAL FAVORABLE 55% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 19% Very favorable 23% Somewhat favorable 32% Somewhat unfavorable 14% Very unfavorable 5% Not sure 26% 11) Maya Wiley TOTAL FAVORABLE 53% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 13% Very favorable 23% Somewhat favorable 30% Somewhat unfavorable 8% Very unfavorable 5% Not sure 34% 12) Shaun Donovan TOTAL FAVORABLE 55% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 17% Very favorable 20% Somewhat favorable 35% Somewhat unfavorable 14% Very unfavorable 3% Not sure 28% 13) Ray McGuire TOTAL FAVORABLE 48% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 18% Very favorable 20% Somewhat favorable 28% Somewhat unfavorable 17% Very unfavorable 1% Not sure 34% 4 14) Scott Stringer TOTAL FAVORABLE 57% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 27% Very favorable 21% Somewhat favorable 36% Somewhat unfavorable 19% Very unfavorable 8% Not sure 16% 15) Dianne Morales TOTAL FAVORABLE 50% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 17% Very favorable 19% Somewhat favorable 31% Somewhat unfavorable 13% Very unfavorable 4% Not sure 33% 16) Kathryn Garcia TOTAL FAVORABLE 51% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 16% Very favorable 20% Somewhat favorable 31% Somewhat unfavorable 12% Very unfavorable 4% Not sure 33% 5 HORSERACE TESTING PREFERENCES FOR MAYOR 17) Generally speaking, what type of Democrat would you prefer to be the next mayor of New York City? A Conservative Democrat 14% A Moderate Democrat 32% A Liberal Democrat 28% A Progressive Democrat 18% A Democratic Socialist 4% It doesn’t matter to me 3% Not sure 1% 18) Mayor Bill de Blasio is unable to run for a third term as Mayor of New York City due to term limits. If Bill de Blasio could run for re-election, would you vote to re-elect him, or would you support another candidate? I would vote to re-elect de Blasio 33% I would support another candidate 57% Not sure 10% MAYORAL HORSERACE 19) In June 2021, there will be a Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City. From the following list of candidates, who would be your [FIRST CHOICE] / [SECOND CHOICE] / [THIRD CHOICE]? n=1,003 FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE THIRD CHOICE Andrew Yang 21% 13% 10% Eric Adams 17% 15% 10% Maya Wiley 10% 12% 9% Scott Stringer 10% 13% 12% Kathryn Garcia 8% 7% 11% Shaun Donovan 6% 12% 11% Ray McGuire 6% 8% 11% Dianne Morales 4% 9% 11% Other 1% -- 1% None -- 3% 3% Not sure 17% 8% 11% 6 FIRST CHOICE BY BOROUGH Brooklyn Manhattan Queens The Bronx Candidate n=311 n=281 n=221 n=150 Andrew Yang 24% 16% 20% 22% Eric Adams 21% 20% 10% 16% Maya Wiley 6% 14% 8% 11% Scott Stringer 6% 13% 10% 9% Kathryn Garcia 7% 5% 11% 10% Shaun Donovan 4% 9% 4% 10% Ray McGuire 8% 7% 8% 8% Dianne Morales 3% 6% 3% 2% Other 1% -- 1% 1% None 1% -- -- -- Not sure 19% 10% 25% 11% 20) Okay, and is there anyone that you would not vote for in the Democratic primary election for Mayor of New York City? Andrew Yang 15% Scott Stringer 14% Maya Wiley 13% Kathryn Garcia 13% Ray McGuire 12% Dianne Morales 11% Eric Adams 10% Shaun Donovan 10% Other 2% None 12% Not sure 35% 7 MAYORAL SIMULATED RANKED CHOICE VOTE—CITYWIDE 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th Round Round Round Round Round Round Round Yang 26% 26% 28% 30% 33% 40% 53% Adams 21% 22% 23% 25% 28% 36% 47% Wiley 12% 13% 14% 16% 20% 24% -- Stringer 12% 13% 15% 17% 19% -- -- Garcia 9% 10% 10% 12% -- -- -- McGuire 8% 9% 10% -- -- -- -- Donovan 7% 7% -- -- -- -- -- Morales 5% -- -- -- -- -- -- 8 Demographics 21) What is your gender? Man 47% Woman 53% 22) What is your racial or ethnic background? White or Caucasian 40% Black or African-American 30% Hispanic or Latino 21% Asian 7% Other 2% Refused -- 23) What is your religion? Catholic 29% Protestant 25% Atheist or Agnostic 11% Evangelical 9% Muslim 2% Other 4% None 6% Not sure 14% 24) Do you consider yourself: A Democratic socialist 16% A progressive Democrat 17% A liberal Democrat 30% A moderate Democrat 27% A conservative Democrat 9% Other -- Not sure 1% 9 25) What is the highest level of education you have completed? Some high school or less 2% High school graduate 17% Some college 27% College graduate 27% Some graduate school 3% Graduate degree 21% Technical school 3% Refused -- 26) Which of the following ranges best describes your annual income? Less than $20,000 14% $20,000 to $40,000 17% $40,000 to $60,000 15% $60,000 to $80,000 9% $80,000 to $100,000 15% $100,000 to $150,000 14% $150,000 to $200,000 8% More than $200,000 6% Not sure 2% 10 .
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