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Elanders Sweden Commissioned Equity Research • 27 November 2018 Consumer Goods Elanders Sweden KEY DATA Compounding growth Stock country Sweden Bloomberg ELANB SS We see an inflection point for niche supply chain solutions provider Reuters ELANb.ST Elanders, where we expect the company to shake off a couple of weak Share price (close) SEK 90.30 quarters. We expect strong earnings growth for Q4 2018 and for 2019, Free Float 50% Market cap. (bn) EUR 0.31/SEK 3.19 driven by price increases in unprofitable customer contracts as well as the Website www.elanders.com phase-out of some acquired low-margin business in Supply Chain Next report date Solutions. These actions should drive solid earnings growth – we expect a CAGR of 22% for 2017-20. PERFORMANCE Acquisitions transformed the company 120 Elanders has a strong market position as one of the leading niche supply 105 chain management players in Europe. Since the acquisitions of Mentor 90 Media (2014) and LGI (2016), the company has transformed its business 75 from printing – a market with negative underlying growth – to the growing 60 supply chain market, largely driven by the trend of customers outsourcing 45 to focus better on core operations. Elanders could also be defined as a Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 consolidator, having closed 13 acquisitions in the past eight years. The majority of its most recent acquisitions are bolt-ons, strengthening its Elanders Source: Thomson Reuters Sweden OMX Stockholm All-Share (Rebased) position as the leading niche supply chain management provider. There are plenty of targets for the company to continue its consolidation journey, specifically in the fragmented European supply chain management market. VALUATION APPROACH The main near-term constraint, in our view, is the company's lack of firepower. Earnings growth Elanders came close to reporting earnings growth CAGR of 60% for SEK SEK 2011-17, driven by the Supply Chain segment as well as acquisitions. In 2017, 89 112 however, the company reported an EBIT decline of 13%. The negative growth was driven by three customer contracts that had unfavourable EV/EBIT 2019E terms and thus burdened earnings. In the Q3 2018 report, management resolved the profitability issue within Supply Chain Solutions and the 50 100 150 higher costs began to fade away. Additionally, phasing out low-margin Source: Nordea estimates freight and transportation contracts should support an estimated EBIT CAGR of 22% for 2017-20. ESTIMATE CHANGES Valuation Year 2018E 2019E 2020E Elanders trades at ~9x 2019E EBIT, corresponding to a discount of ~30% Sales n.a. n.a. n.a. versus logistics peers and ~13% versus printing peers. Our equity value EBIT (adj) n.a. n.a. n.a. range is based on SOTP and implies a high EV/EBIT multiple of 10.7x and a Source: Nordea estimates low of 9.3x for 2019E, generating a range of SEK 89-112 per share. SUMMARY TABLE - KEY FIGURES Nordea Markets - Analysts Carl Ragnerstam SEKm 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Analyst Total revenue 3,730 4,237 6,285 9,342 10,726 11,304 11,722 EBITDA (adj) 335 444 557 589 742 833 875 Dan Johansson EBIT (adj) 217 309 385 334 473 558 604 Analyst EBIT (adj) margin 5.8% 7.3% 6.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4.9% 5.2% EPS (adj) 6.53 7.93 10.25 7.61 9.43 10.96 11.83 EPS (adj) growth 49.4% 21.5% 29.2% -25.8% 24.0% 16.2% 7.9% DPS (ord) 1.10 2.20 2.60 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 EV/Sales 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBIT (adj) 8.3 8.2 13.9 16.7 11.8 9.5 8.2 P/E (adj) 5.5 8.0 10.4 10.8 9.6 8.2 7.6 P/BV 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 Dividend yield (ord) 3.1% 3.5% 2.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% FCF Yield bef acq & disp 13.1% 12.5% 7.0% -9.0% 12.7% 13.6% 14.8% Net debt 895 738 2,223 2,665 2,387 2,089 1,758 Net debt/EBITDA 3.1 1.7 4.3 4.7 3.2 2.5 2.0 ROIC after tax 7.1% 9.0% 7.3% 4.5% 6.1% 7.2% 7.9% Source: Company data and Nordea estimates Marketing material commissioned by Elanders 27 November 2018 Elanders Contents Factors to consider when investing in Elanders 3 Risk factors 6 Valuation 8 Company overview 12 Executive management 17 Board of directors 19 Major shareholders 21 Financial targets 22 Supply Chain Solutions 24 From 2.0 to 4.0 31 Print & Packaging Solutions 42 Printing & Packaging Market 46 e-Commerce Solutions 49 P&L discussion 52 Balance sheet discussion 56 M&A 58 Cash flow 60 Sustainability 62 Peer description 64 Detailed annual estimates 67 Detailed quarterly estimates 69 Reported numbers and forecasts 71 Disclaimer and legal disclosures 74 Marketing material commissioned by Elanders 2 27 November 2018 Elanders Factors to consider when investing in Elanders Elanders has a strong market position as one of the leading niche supply chain management players in Europe. Since the acquisitions of Mentor Media and LGI, the company has turned the business from one with slow underlying growth into one with high exposure to the growing supply chain market, driven in large part by the trend of customers outsourcing supply-chain operations to focus on their core operations. We see several long-term and short-term triggers, including an earnings rebound with an estimated EBIT CAGR 2017-20 of 22% and a continuation of the solid M&A track record. Organic growth and margin improvements As indicated in our market Elanders has a strong market position as one of the leading niche supply chain study, customers need to management players in Europe. Since the acquisition of Mentor Media and LGI, the increase their supply chain company has turned the business from a market with slow underlying growth into one investments with high exposure to the solidly growing supply chain market, driven by the outsourcing trend. As indicated in our market study, customers need to increase their supply chain investments to keep up with fast-changing customer demands and the digital transformation. New major customer contracts For the past five quarters, Elanders has reported organic growth of 7-12%, partly driven indicate that Elanders has a by new customer contracts and partly by overall momentum. Last year, Elanders won a competitive and flexible couple of new major customer contracts, including one at a leading European offering automotive manufacturer and another at a famous football club. This indicates that Elanders has a competitive and flexible customer offering. We expect the new customer contracts to boost the organic growth in the current year as well as in 2019. We estimate a 2017-20 sales CAGR of 8.0%, most of which is organic. ORGANIC GROWTH 2015-20, % 10.0% 8.9% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: Company data and Nordea estimates The profitability issue for Elanders came close to reporting an earnings growth CAGR of 60% for 2011-17, driven certain contracts is resolved by the Supply Chain Solutions segment as well as acquisitions. However, in 2017, the and the high costs should fade company met disruption in its earnings trend and posted an EBIT decline of 13%. The negative growth was driven by three customer contracts that had unfavourable terms and thus burdened earnings. In the Q3 2018 report, management stated that it had resolved the profitability issue for these contracts and the higher costs should begin to fade. This, plus phasing out low-margin freight and transportation contracts, should drive the estimated EBIT CAGR of 22% for 2017-20. Marketing material commissioned by Elanders 3 27 November 2018 Elanders ELANDERS NET SALES AND ADJ EBIT MARGIN, SEKm ELANDERS EBIT, SEKm 2010-20 700 14,000 8.0% 7.0% 600 12,000 6.0% 500 10,000 5.0% 400 8,000 4.0% 3.0% 300 6,000 2.0% 200 4,000 1.0% 0.0% 100 2,000 -1.0% 0 0 -2.0% -100 Net sales Adj. EBIT margin Source: Company data and Nordea estimates Source: Company data and Nordea estimates Solid acquisition track record Assuming a leverage ratio of Elanders could be defined as a consolidator, or at least a frequent acquirer, having 3.0x for 2019, we calculate that closed 13 acquisitions in the past eight years. The majority of its most recent the acquisition headroom acquisitions are small to medium-sized companies, helping Elanders strengthen its would total around SEK 400m position as a leading niche supply chain management company. In our view, the most noticeable deals have been its large transformational acquisitions, including Mentor Media in 2014 (with sales of SEK 1,200m) and LGI in 2016 (with sales of SEK 4,100m, which almost doubled the company). We believe that management is determined to continue its acquisition pace with bolt-on acquisitions for its Supply Chain Solutions business area, although we do not exclude the possibility of minor acquisitions in Print & Packaging. There are plenty of targets, specifically in the fragmented European supply chain management market. The main constraint, in our view, is the company's lack of firepower.
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