Haganum Model United Nations Gymnasium Haganum, The Hague Research Reports
Security Council
Reducing tensions between Saudi Arabia
and Iran
4th, 5th and 6th of March 2016
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March – 6th of March 2016
Forum: Security Council Issue: Reducing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran Student Officer: Noortje van Randwijk Position: Deputy President
Introduction
Rivalry between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has determined their relations on a diplomatic, commercial and cultural level for decades. A variety of factors form the basis of this complex issue. Very recently, the situation got worse rapidly as a result of the execution of Saudi- born prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in early January 2016. Nimr al-Nimr was suspected of terrorism by Saudi officials, however widely respected in Iran because of his outspoken advocacy for Shiite rights in Saudi Arabia. After Iranian protesters responded by violently attacking the Saudi embassy in Tehran, Saudi Arabia formally broke off diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran, with some of Saudi Arabia’s close allies, such as Bahrain, following its lead. This crisis has once again sharpened the hostility between Sunni and Shia Muslims in the Middle East, which is why further escalation could have great impact on safety and security in the region. Moreover, the provocations mean prospects for a diplomatic solution for the conflicts in Syria and Yemen are much more remote. Also worth noting is that a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could affect worldwide oil prizes and trade.
Definition of Key Terms
Sunnism and Shiism
A sharp divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims exists in the Islamic world, which can be traced back to the death of Islam’s founder, the Prophet Muhammed, in 632. Sunnis, 80% of all Muslims, backed Abu Bakr, a close friend of the Prophet, to be the first Islamic caliph – the title given to the Prophet’s successors. However, the Shia claims that Muhammed had appointed his cousin Ali to be his rightful successor. The only Middle Eastern countries that are predominantly Shia are Iran, Iraq and Bahrain.
Hajj
2 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March –6th of March 2016
The annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, is called the Hajj and is the most significant manifestation of Islamic faith. Undertaking the Hajj at least once in your life is a religious duty for Muslims. Millions of Muslims gather in Mecca during the Hajj every year to perform holy rituals.
Iranian Revolution
The Islamic Revolution in 1979 led by Ayatollah Khomeini, after which Iran became an anti-western theocracy. Iran wanted to spread its message over other Arab countries but failed to do so, which did result in the Iran-Iraq war in 1980. The revolution instigated hostility from neighbouring countries and caused Iran to become more and more isolated.
Diplomatic relations
According to the Free Dictionary, diplomatic relations mean “the art or practice of conducting international relations, as in negotiating alliances, treaties and agreements; the conduct of relations of one state with another by peaceful means.”
General Overview
Fundamental distrust and aversion from both sides form the basis of the ‘cold war’ between both powerful nations. Saudi Arabia as well as Iran pursues influence and dominance in the Islamic world, however each uphold a different interpretation of Islam. Although the conflict has more recently taken a religious turn, it originally resembles the competition between two regional powers that vie for regional dominance and view the other as a growing regional threat. The Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East has only been of interest for a few decades, possibly as a result of western colonisation policies, however hardly caused any hostility between ethnic groups or countries before. In regional conflicts, both Iran and Saudi Arabia mainly support movements that share their strategic vision rather than their religious beliefs. This can be illustrated by the fact that, for example, Saudi Arabia financially supported Iraq, which is a predominantly Shiite country like Iran, during the Iran- Iraq war (1980-1988). A significant factor in this issue is both Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s important role in OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), which is a partnership to, according to OPEC itself, “coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilisation of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.” Also important to understand
3 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March – 6th of March 2016
this issue are the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the civil wars in Yemen and Syria and both countries’ relations with the United States and the west.
1979 Iranian Revolution Until the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Shah- monarchy Iran was rather friendly, despite differences in religious practices and Saudi Arabia’s concern about Iran’s modernisation and military dominance in the region. However, Iran’s pro-western modernisation, dictatorial regime and financial inequality fed a fast growing dissatisfied internal opposition. This eventually induced the anti-western theocratic Iranian Revolution in 1979, led by ayatollah Khomeini, after which Shiite Iran started to openly criticize the Sunni Saudi regime. Although Saudi Arabia remained amicably at first, they cut relations with Iran in 1987, after Khomeini called Saudis “vile and ungodly, piercing the hearts of Muslims from the back, representing western interests rather than Islam”, and also because of its concern about Iran’s desire to expand its Shiite revolution within the Gulf Region. In 1991, relations were restored, but the hostile tone was set.
RELIGION in Saudi Arabia and Iran Iran was founded in an anti-western Shiite Revolution and is based on the principle that Islamic Jurists should have custodianship over all Muslims, including their government. Saudi Arabia is a Wahhabi Sunni Islamic kingdom, remaining conservative as an absolute monarchy (which is considered ‘unislamic’ by Iran) under Sharia law. A Shia minority in Saudi Arabia has complained about institutional discrimination against them. Mecca and Medina, two of the traditional holy cities in the religion of Islam, are located in Saudi Arabia and are visited by Muslims all over the world during the annual pilgrimage (‘Hajj’) period. A number of deadly incidents that have deteriorated Saudi-Iranian relations have taken place during these periods, the two most notorious ones being the 1987 Hajj Mecca massacre, in which 402 protesting pilgrims, most of them Iranian, died after they clashed with Saudi security forces; and the more recent 2015 Mina Stampede with an estimated death toll of 2411, including 464 Iranians. After this last incident, Saudi Arabia was blamed by Iran for not adhering to safety regulations. The disaster constituted another recent sting in the countries’ relationship.
RELATIONS with the United States and the West Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has been the United States’ closest Arab ally in the Middle East since the 1940s. This close relation is largely based on common interests in terms of counter-terrorism and the United States’ dependence on Saudi oil.
4 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March –6th of March 2016
Iran and the United States used to be allies; however relations have been hostile ever since the anti-western Iranian Revolution in 1979 and as a result of Iran’s resistance against Israel. In 2002 it was revealed that Iran was working on a clandestine nuclear program, after which the US, the United Nations and the European Union, imposed sanctions on Iran. Finally, an historic nuclear agreement between Iran and a group of world powers was made in July 2015. In early 2016, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that Tehran had met its obligations and therefore sanctions were lifted. Saudi opposition to the lifting of sanctions and the nuclear deal, fearing that this would strengthen Iran’s economy and dominant position on the region, has caused more tensions towards Iran and uncertainty about the Iranian-American alliance. These newly established diplomatic relations may eventually be the start of a powerful alliance between the US and Iran. Although this reconciliation does not necessarily have to come at the expense of Saudi-American relations, it does enlarge Saudi-Arabia’s fear that the West might eventually abandon its traditional Arab allies. An important factor in this distrust is Iran's competitive position regarding its oil reserves that are now more available for the rest of the world, which would limit western dependence on Saudi oil.
INVOLVEMENT in Yemeni and Syrian conflicts Iran and Saudi Arabia are involved in opposite sides of the civil wars raging through Yemen and Syria. Their involvement in these wars has greatly affected the rivalry towards each other, and their current state of hostility makes prospects for diplomatic and peaceful solutions, that seemed promising so far, seem much more remote.
The Yemeni Civil War A severe armed conflict between Shiite Houthis and the predominantly Sunni government of President Hadi has been raging through Saudi Arabia’s direct neighbour, Yemen, since 2014. Saudi Arabia eventually intervened, leading a coalition of Arab countries supporting President Hadi, while Iran is allegedly supporting the Shiite rebels. In December 2015 all parties involved declared a ceasefire for the third time, however in January 2016 the Saudi coalition resumed bombing, possibly partially in response to the increased tensions with Iran.
The Syrian Civil War Many major powers are involved in the complex Syrian Civil War. Although it is commonly agreed that the militant Islamic groups, including ISIS, pose an enormous global threat and must be defeated, some powers are not sure whether to support or oppose president Bashar al-Assad. The situation is often described as ‘choosing
5 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March – 6th of March 2016
between two evils’. Iran, however, has been Assad’s closest Arab ally for years and – financially – supports his Alawite (a Shia branch) government. Also, according to the BBC, Syria is Iran’s “main transit point for Iranian weapon shipments to the Lebanese Shia Islamist movement, Hezbollah”. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, initially assisted several Islamist rebel groups, however later agreed to join the US-led air coalition against IS. They do state that President Assad as well as the rebels must be defeated.
Major Countries and Organizations Involved
Iran and Saudi Arabia
Naturally, both countries on different sides of the conflict are most significantly involved. Persisting provocations from both sides continue to cause irritations, aversion and distrust.
United States of America
The United States’ influence in the Middle East has decreased in the past years, but they continue to urge for peace and stability in the region. The relation between the US and Saudi Arabia has been close for multiple decennia. Iran’s relation with the US used to be very hostile, but diplomatic ties have been restored in the past months. It is still unclear what these newly established relations between the US and Iran will eventually mean for Saudi Arabia’s ties with the US and the growing Saudi-Iranian tensions.
Timeline of Events
Date Description of event January 1979 – Iranian Revolution founded by Khomeini February 1979 July 31st, 1987 Hajj Mecca incident Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini insulted Saudi Arabia, after which diplomatic August 1987 ties ended until 1991. September 1980 – Iran-Iraq war Augustus 1988 A Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement (CCA) was signed between May 1998 Saudi Arabia and Iran, in which they agreed to cooperate on an
6 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March –6th of March 2016
economic and cultural level. Iran was revealed to be working on a clandestine nuclear program, Early 2002 after which sanctions were imposed and Iran’s powerful position on the region was limited. March 15th 2011 – Syrian Civil War present March 19th 2015 – Yemeni Civil War present The establishment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the July 14th, 2015 international agreement on the nuclear program of Iran. December 2015 Sanctions on Iran were lifted. September 24th, 2015 Mina Stampede 2015 January 2nd, 2016 Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. January 3rd, 2016 Iranian protesters violently attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran. January 4th, 2016 Saudi Arabia officially cut diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran.
Relevant UN Treaties and Events
No relevant recent UN Treaties and Events on the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have taken place so far, except for United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to speak on the phone with the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers on January 4th 2016, to urge them to “avoid any actions that could further exacerbate the situation”. His spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, stated that the decision to break off relations was “deeply worrying”, and that “a breakdown of relations between Riyadh [Saudi Arabia] and Tehran [Iran] could have very serious consequences for the region”.
Previous Attempts to solve the Issue Some attempts to solve the issue have been made in the past decennia, but none of them have been successful on the long term. An example is the signing of the Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement (CCA) between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 1998, in which they agreed to cooperate on an economic and cultural level. Also, some official state visits from both countries to the other have taken place in an attempt to improve relations, for example in 1991, 1997 and 2007. These visits resulted in Saudi Arabia and Iran being relatively friendly towards each other until the outbreak of the civil wars in Syria and Yemen. International efforts, for example by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, are currently
7 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March – 6th of March 2016
going on to urge both countries to remain passive and not undertake any violent action. Russia proposed to act as a mediator in negotiations between the two competing states, but this proposal was turned down because Russian relations with Tehran are much closer than with Riyadh.
Possible Solutions
It is generally agreed upon that any further escalation of the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia must be prevented. The Security Council must recognise Saudi Arabia’s fear that an empowered Iran might destabilise the region. In order to reduce tensions, members of the Council should consider the possibility of sending UN peacekeeping troops to the area around the Persian Gulf in case tensions become threatening, or draw guidelines for when to do so. Also, peaceful solutions or cooperative agreements for the conflicts in Syria and Yemen might help make relations friendlier. The current state of hostility has made coming to agreements much more difficult, but the UN should use its power to permit action to be taken. Although Russia’s initiative to mediate between Iran and Saudi Araba was turned down, the idea of appointing a mediator could help bring the two countries closer together. This mediator should be absolutely neutral and impartial. In the negotiations between the US and Iran, the Omani Sultan acted as a mediator and he might be a good candidate again. In line with the break off of ties following the attack on the Saudi embassy, Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassadors from the embassy in Tehran. In order to normalise relations, this embassy could be reinstalled if safety regulations in and around embassies are improved, to prevent future attacks from happening. Moreover, the Security Council should take into account both Saudi Arabia’s and Iran’s involvement in OPEC, and the effects that escalations of tensions could have on the stabilisation and security of oil markets.
Bibliography
NPR, “Saudi Arabia’s Killing of Leading Shiite Cleric and 46 Other Sparks Outcry”, National Public Radio, January 04, 2016.
8 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March –6th of March 2016
US News, “The Middle East Blame Game” – Teresa Welsh, January 11, 2016.
9 RESEARCH REPORTS
Haganum Model United Nations 2016| 4th of March – 6th of March 2016
BBC News, “Iran and Saudi Arabia’s great rivalry explained”, - Thom Poole, January 04, 2016.
Appendix or Appendices
I. Vox: The cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran that’s tearing apart the Middle East, explained – http://www.vox.com/2016/1/4/10708682/sunni-shia-iran-saudi- arabia-war II. BICOM Analysis: Regional implications of the Iran-Saudi rivalry – http://www.bicom.org.uk/analysis-article/bicom-analysis-regional-implications-of-the- iran-saudi-rivalry/ III. Council on Foreign Relations: U.S.-Saudi Relations – http://www.cfr.org/saudi- arabia/us-saudi-relations/p36524 IV. Reuters: Saudi-Iran dispute jeopardizes Yemen peace talks – http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-saudi-yemen-idUSKCN0UZ22I V. New Eastern Outlook: Saudi Arabia: Complex Problems – Complex Solutions – http://journal-neo.org/2016/02/01/saudi-arabia-complex-problems-complex-solutions/ VI. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC – http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/index.htm
1 RESEARCH REPORTS 0