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Foldable Under the Spotlight but Stay Focused China Display Optoelectronics | 334.HK

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Foldable Under the Spotlight but Stay Focused China Display Optoelectronics | 334.HK China Display Optoelectronics | 334.HK Rating Trading BUY Foldable under the spotlight but stay focused Target Price HKD 1.11 Current price HKD 0.90 Upside: 23.5% % TCL to launch foldable smart devices in 2020, CDOT would benefit in Company Update medium term Foldable display smart devices were under the spotlight in MWC 2019, as 11 March 2019 Samsung and Huawei unveiled their first ever foldable display smartphones. Meanwhile, according to CNET, TCLC (which is one of CDOT’s client) is working Hayman Chiu on at least 5 devices employing flexible displays, including 2 tablets, 2 smartphones and a flexible phone that could curve into a smartwatch. The [email protected] flexible handsets would use its own DragonHinge technology which uses a (852) 2235 7677 special mechanical housing designed to fold and bend smartphones and tablets in a variety of ways, and in a manner that should provide “effortless and Trading data seamless movement” in foldable phones. DragonHinge technology will be used in combination with custom flexible AMOLED displays that will be provided by 52-Week Range (HK$) 0.97/0.44 CSOT. This may imply that CDOT would benefit in medium term from these new 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.34 product launch which drove the share price soared >80% since end-January. No of Shares (m) 2,086.8 Market Cap (HK$m) 1,878.1 According to Global Market Insights’ research released in Jan 2019, the foldable Major Shareholders SZ China Star (65.0%) display market size is set to expand from >US$65mn in 2018 to >US$18bn by Auditors EY 2025, while global shipments are set to grow at >85% CAGR in 2019-2025. Result Due FY18: March 2019 Meanwhile, IHS expects the penetration rate of foldable AMOLED displays are expected to account for 0.001% of flexible AMOLED shipments in 2018, and would increase to 6% of total shipment in 2021. Though companies are Company description foreseeing the technology as the next key differentiation in their products, the Established in 2000 and listed in HKEx in June 2015, foldable AMOLED displays seems to be a blue ocean in the next round of China Display Optoelectronics (CDOT), is one of the smartphone upgrade, we are skeptical whether end consumers would be willing largest manufacturers of small-to-meidum sized( ≦ to pay a high price (Huawei Mate X: €2,299 & Samsung Galaxy Fold: €2,000) for 10.1“) LCD modules in China. CDOT ranked 7th in foldable smartphones at an initial stage, which could hinder the demand. revenue amongst Chinese brand manufacturers in 1H18, with market share at 2.4%. CDOT’s current From CDOT’s perspective, the Wuhan CSOT t4 (6th generation flexible clients include Huawei (ODM), TCLC & LG. CDOT LTPS-AMOLED display panel production line with designed capacity at 45k current owns 24 LCD module production line in glass units/month) would commence operation in 1H2019 and would enter mass Huizhou with annual capacity at ~78mn million pieces production in 1H20. Therefore, we would not see meaningful contribution from flexible AMOLED in FY19E. Price chart HK$ Expects 2H18E result to improve and further picks up in FY19E on new 1.6 clients’ order ramp up 1.4 1.2 1.0 In 9M18, CDOT’s sales grew 6.8% Yoy to RMB2,554mn while shipment dropped 0.8 3.9% Yoy to 32.6mn pcs, both figures showed CDOT’s operation improved in 3Q18 0.6 (with sales up 44% Yoy, while volume grew 19.0%). The reason behind the 0.4 improvement was mainly due to CDOT began to ship laminated products to new 0.2 0.0 18 16 17 16 17 17 18 18 16 19 16 17 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - Korean client’s mid-range smartphones (which we believe to be Samsung) in Sept - Jun Jun Jun Mar Mar Mar Mar Sep Dec Sep Dec Sep and drove CDOT’s revenue/volume up 57%/19.0% Yoy in September/3Q18. In Dec 3Q18, laminated modules accounted for ~85%/69% of total revenue/volume Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL shipment Yoy, while ASP grew 16% Yoy to ~RMB105/pc. We expect CDOT’s allocation from Korean client would further increase in 4Q18 and FY19E. FLASH NOTE represent short-term Meanwhile, CDOT announced in a press release in end January that they have st trading ideas by Cinda International entered the LTPS full-screen display module supplier chain of 1 tier Chinese brands Research which are distinguished including Huawei, OPPO and Vivo through CSOT, we believe this would bring further from our normal coverage. The improvement to CDOT’s product mix, ASP and GM in FY19E. recommended stocks may not be continually followed. In FY17 CDOT’s full screen products only accounted for ~3% of sales volume, it rose to 47% in 9M18 (~ to industry level at ~45%). Smartphone clients’ demand shift in display scale from 16:9 to 18:9 full screen would continue in FY19E. According to WitsView, full screen smartphone penetration rate would increase from 8.7% in 2017 to 71.6% in 2019E, we expect CDOT would also show similar figure in FY19E. Page 1 of 8 We expect CDOT’s FY18E shipment volume to arrive at 55mn pcs (~3% Yoy), driven by 16.6% Yoy growth in 2H18E (3Q18: +18.7% Yoy; 4Q18E: +15.2% Yoy), while ASP would grow ~11% to RMB72.2 (which implies 2H18E ASP +18% Yoy vs +2.0 in 1H18), thanks to increased sales and volume contribution from laminated modules. Trading at >30% discount to leading players, turnaround story remains intact We expect CDOT’s EPS to grow 55.7% CAGR in FY18E-FY21E, driven by gradual GM expansion from both business segments and enjoy economy of scale. After having rocketed 80% in the past month mainly due to investors’ anticipation of foldable display TAM, and its FY19E 12.3x PE (39% discount to to BOE and Shenzhen Tianma’s average FY19E PE) looks undemanding to us as CDOT’s turnaround story remain solid. We arrive its TP at HK$1.11 based on 15.2x FY19E PE (25% discount to BOE and Shenzhen Tianma’s average FY19E PE). We identify the following upside catalysts for CDOT: i) FY19E shipment guidance (expected to unveil in FY18E result) ; ii) 1Q19E shipment (due in Apr), iii) New Chinese customers’ order ramp up, and iv) Ramp up of Wuhan CSOT t4 Exhibit 1: TCL unveiled plans in MWC 2019 to launch foldable smart devices in 2020 Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Source: cnet,GSMarena Exhibit 2: AMOLED penetration expected to increase while foldable AMOLED expected to account for ~6% of total flexible AMOLED shipment in 2021 Ex 100% 100% 1% 3% 2% 90% 7% 6% 90% 80% 32% 80% 37% 52.0% 50% 30% 29% 70% 58.0% 70% 65.0% 65% 71.0% 76.2% 74.0% 60% 75% 60% 84.6% 50% 50% 40% 40% 68% 30% 61% 62% 62% 30% 50% 20% 48.0% 35% 20% 42.0% 35.0% 10% 25% 23.8% 26.0% 29.0% 10% 15.4% 0% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Flat Curved Foldable Bendable/ Rollable AMOLED TFT-LCD Source: Witsview, IHS,CIRL hibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark Page 2 of 8 et counters Exhibit 3: Full screen smartphone’s penetration rate would increase to >70% in 2019E Exhibit100.0% 1: 92.1% Pork90.0% 87.7% 80.0% products70.0% 71.6% 60.0% sold in 50.0% supermark 44.6% 40.0% et 30.0%counters 26.9% 22.6% 25.1% 20.0% 15.7% 10.0% 8.7% 0.0% 2.4% 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Full screen Notch design Source: WitsView, CIRL Exhibit 4: CDOT’s revenue breakdown and growth assumption ExhibitYear to Dec (RMB1: mn) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Segment Revene PorkNon-laminated modules 1,332 1,291 670 773 769 productsLaminated modules 2,347 2,173 3,303 4,600 5,689 Group 3,679 3,464 3,973 5,373 6,459 sold in supermarkSegment Revenue Growth Non-laminated modules -0.3% -3.0% -48.1% 15.4% -0.5% etLaminated counters modules 159.1% -7.4% 52.0% 39.3% 23.7% Group 64.1% -5.8% 14.7% 35.2% 20.2% Shipment volume (Mn Units) Non-laminated modules 45.4 31.8 22.0 23.1 22.1 Yoy(%) - -29.9% -30.8% 5.0% -4.4% Laminated modules 29.2 21.6 33.0 42.9 51.5 Yoy(%) - -26.0% 52.8% 30.0% 20.1% Group 74.6 53.4 55.0 66.0 73.6 Yoy(%) - -28.4% 3.0% 20.0% 11.5% Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Exhibit 5: Ramp up of laminated modules since 3Q17 (% of total shipment) supported ASP 80.0%Exhibit 1: 140.0 70.0% 124.3 120.0 60.0%Pork 104.3 105.5 100.0 101.0 50.0% 96.7 99.7 91.9 92.9 90.9 products 86.2 82.9 84.0 40.0% 80.0 79.3 76.9 78.9 73.6 74.4 73.8 70.9 69.8 30.0%sold in 67.2 60.0 58.6 55.0 20.0% 49.9 49.9 52.0 44.5 46.1 46.6 43.6 supermarket 40.0 42.4 39.7 42.7 40.6 40.1 33.9 36.8 10.0% 30.6 28.5 30.1 28.0 26.0 23.7 0.0% 20.0 24.1 counters 21.0 0.0 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 1Q13 1Q15 2Q15 2Q17 3Q17 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Laminated modules (% of volume shipment) Non-laminated modules Laminated modules Blended ASP Source: Company data, CIRL Page 3 of 8 Exhibit 6: We expect CDOT’s profitability to improve driven by increasing in-cell LTPS contribution Exhibit9.0 (%) 1: Pork8.0 products7.0 6.0 sold in 5.0 supermark et4.0 counters 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 *FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Gross margin (reported) EBITDA EBIT Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Exhibit 7: CDOT’s current component suppliers and customers Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Source: Company data, CIRL Page 4 of 8 Exhibit 8: CSOT holds 53.8% stake in CDOT after shareholding restructure Exhibit 1: Before shareholding restructure Pork products sold in supermark et counters After shareholding restructure Source: Company data Page 5 of 8 Financial Statement Exhibit 7: Financial summary Income statement Cash flow YearExhibit to Dec (RMB 1: mn) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Year to Dec (RMB mn) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue 3,679 3,464 3,973 5,373 6,459 Pre-tax profit 122 132 70 148 211 GrossPork profit (reported) 206 280 179 296 388 Taxes paid (31) (20) (11) (23) (33) EBITDA 187 211 142 245 327 Depreciation (44) (49) (63) (85) (102) Depreciationproducts 44 49 63 85 102 Associates 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 143 163 79 161 226 CFO bef.
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