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Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Cityscape, March 2017 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Introduction Overview • The fall in oil prices, which started in 2014, started to have an impact the real estate market in Qatar in 2016 • Real estate prices and rents had seen strong increases between 2011 and 2015. This was driven by a growing economy, rapidly expanding population, and insufficient new supply coming to the market. Despite signs of a softening in rents in 2016, rental levels remain strong • The biggest challenge currently facing Qatar’s real estate market is pipeline of new supply and uncertainty in relation to future demand • Not an typical supply and demand based model, with organic growth. Inevitable that there will be periods of undersupply and oversupply • Improvement in quality of new buildings will be important to attract tenants, as the market matures – ‘Flight to Quality’ 2 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview QCB Real Estate Price Index QCB Real Estate Price Index - (2006-2016) 3 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Residential Market Example of Residential Rental Trends, Doha, 2011 – Q4 2016 Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2016 One Bed Apartment (West Bay) 9,500 11,000 12,000 12,500 12,000 11,000 Two Bed Apartment (Al Sadd) 9,000 10,000 11,000 11,500 12,000 10,000 Three Bed Villa (Abu Hammour) 13,000 14,000 15,000 17,000 17,500 15,000 Four Bed Villa (Abu Hammour) 15,000 16,000 17,000 19,000 20,000 17,000 Prime Apartment Supply Trends in Residential Market 40,000 Fewer companies looking to take corporate leases. 35,000 Living allowances are now more common 30,000 Recovery in Oil Price may stimulate growth and see a 25,000 recovery in demand compared to 2016 20,000 15,000 The drop in rents will be welcomed by tenants, and No. of Apartments 10,000 may make Qatar more competitive 5,000 0 Greatest demand in coming years is likely to be 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 generated by lower to middle income expatriates. DTZ see an opportunity for good quality mid-range housing Diplomatic District Pearl Lusail Msheireb 4 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Hospitality Market Hotel Supply Talking Points 140 120 • In the region of 22,500 hotel keys are now available, of which 88% are 4 star or 5 star. 100 80 • DTZ estimated that at least 15 hotel and serviced 60 apartment buildings are scheduled to open in the next 12 months, which will potentially add up to 40 4,000 keys to existing supply 20 0 • It is estimated that 25,000 hotel keys in 64 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2016 developments are at various stages of planning and 2-star 3-star 4-star 5-star construction • Performance metrics have been impacted by a 3% Hotel Performance Metrics (MDPS) fall in tourist numbers (Oct 16), and an increase in 600 100% the supply of hotel keys. The trends are unlikely to 474 500 80% be reversed considering the scale of pipeline supply 329 400 60% 300 • Challenging market for hotel operators. Limited 40% 200 justification for further 5 Star proposals without a 100 20% unique selling point (beachside/destination resort 0 0% etc) Occupancy % ADR RevPAr 5 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Retail Market Retail Mall Supply (Current 838,000 Sq M) Trends in Retail Market 2,000,000 • Retail market has performed strongly in the past 1,800,000 5 years, due to increased population growth, high 1,600,000 disposable income many residents, and limited 1,400,000 new supply 1,200,000 838,000 1,000,000 • Retail spending estimated to have reduced by 800,000 600,000 between 10% and 15% in past year 400,000 200,000 • Rental levels either increased or remained stable 0 in existing malls in the past 12 months 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • Premium rents achieved for units in new malls Pipeline Supply such as Mall of Qatar Estimated Project Location Completion Date • Mall of Qatar opened in December 2016, increasing organized retail supply by 30% / Al Hazm Mall Markhiya 2017 Doha Mall Abu Hamour 2017 195,000 sq m Katara Mall Al Qassar 2017 Al Mirqab Mall Al Mirqab St 2017 • Doha Festival City expected to open in April, Tawar Mall Duhail 2017 increasing supply by 240,000 sq m Doha Festival City Umm Salal 2017 Northgate North Doha 2017 • The amount of high quality new supply to come Place Vendome Lusail 2018 on line in the next 24 months is likely to create a Boulevard Mall Al Khissa 2019 2-tier market 6 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Office Market Supply and Availability Trends, West Bay Market Trends 1,700,000 25% 1,636,549 1,650,000 50% of all enquires are for 1,600,000 20% 50% sub 500 sq m of space 1,550,000 SqM - 15% 1,500,000 Increase in demand from 1,450,000 10% Availability QFC affiliated companies 1,400,000 Total Stock Stock Total 1,350,000 5% 1,300,000 Only three requirements in 1,250,000 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q4 2016 3 2016 for 5,000 plus sq m Diplomatic District Availability Increase in Relocation Future Considerations • Government ministries to Lusail? • QFC licensed companies to Msheireb? Enquiries from occupiers in ‘secondary’ locations • Increased reliance on the private taking advantage of lower rental levels sector 7 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Land Transaction Analysis Qatar Land Transactions 2016 Total Number of Land Transactions - 2016 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec • 1,000 Land Transactions • QAR 5.6 billion • QAR 385 per sq ft • 14.6 million sq ft 8 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Land Transaction Analysis Total Number of Land Transactions - 2015/2016 Comparison Total Number of Land Transactions - 2015/2016 Comparison 400 350 300 250 Total Number of Land Transactions 2015 Total Number of Land Transactions 2016 200 150 100 Number Transactions Month Land Per Number of 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Land Transaction Analysis Total Value of Land Transactions - 2015/2016 Comparison Total Value of Land Transactions - 2015/2016 Comparison 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Total Value of Land Transactions 2015 Total Value of Land Transactions 2016 2,000 1,500 1,000 Total Value of Land Transactions million) Transactions Value Land (QAR ofTotal 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 10 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Land Transaction Analysis Average Land Rate - 2015/2016 Comparison Average Land Rate - 2015/2016 Comparison 700 600 500 400 300 Average ft) Rate Land per sq Average (QAR 200 100 Average Land Rate 2016 (QAR per sq ft) Average Land Rate 2015 (QAR per sq ft) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11 2016 Real Estate Market Review - Qatar Cause of Land Market Trends • Historically cheap and readily available credit • Land treated as a traded commodity • Residual values lower than transactional values • Land owners not willing to sell at a loss • Banks tightening lending criteria • Focus on income generating potential 12 2016 Real Estate Market Review - Qatar Looking Forward • Transactional volumes increasing slightly • Availability of credit to remain tight • Average land rates to remain fairly stable • Speculative purchases to drop • Purchases for development or store of value • Stronger oil price and committed Government spending • Reduced land values to be seen as a positive to the market 13 Qatar Real Estate Market Overview Outlook • Focus on growing the private sector and attracting international companies. Positive signs in this regard recently with increase in QFC Company activity and the development of the Manateq Projects • New Builds: Importance of high quality construction, internal finishing, and good estate management • Opportunity for Qatar to develop attractions and increase leisure tourism • Completion of infrastructure projects, retail malls, Lusail and Manateq Economic Zones, as well as various leisure and recreation provisions will increase Qatar’s appeal as a destination for companies, and potential residents • Transparency in urban planning and a coordinated approach to real estate development, would help meet future requirements 14.
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