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Australia-China Clashes in the COVID-19

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Australia-China Clashes in the COVID-19 Policy Brief JuneJune 19, 1, 20202018 Dr T homas S. Wilkins is Australia-China clashes in the currently a Senior Fellow at the Japan Institute for International COVID-19 era: Adjusting to a “new Affairs in Tokyo. He is normally normal” in bilateral relations? based as a Senior Lecturer in International Security at the Dr Thomas S. Wilkins University of Sydney, Australia. He specializes in security The COVID-19 Pandemic: A critical juncture in the Indo issues in the Asia Pacific Pacific geopolitical landscape region and has published on The spread of the novel Corona Virus COVID-19 from the Chinese this subject in journals such as province of Hebei across the world has resulted in a global pandemic Review of International Studies, of catastrophic proportions. Certain countries have been affected International Relations of the more severely than others, and there have been glaring disparities Asia Pacific and the Australian in how national governments have responded to the outbreak. Journal of International Affairs, In addition to the global death toll of 400,000 (and counting), the among others. industrial and financial disruption has been severe, with the Asian Development Bank estimating the loss to the global economy at between USD$ 5.8-8.8 trillion.1 To overcome the current crisis, and work toward a vaccine, global solidarity, including cooperation through multilateral organizations like the World Heath Organization (WHO), is desperately needed. Disclaimer : And yet, the immediate focus on taming the COVID-19 pandemic The views expressed in this has not entirely obviated the time-honoured practice of Realpolitk publication are those of the author (“power politics”). Putting aside the pressing need to cooperate and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of The Japan internationally to defeat the pandemic, it has not taken long for Institute of International Affairs or nationalist tendencies to emerge in the midst of the crisis, leading to any other organization with which a “propaganda war.” The United States and the Peoples Republic of the author is affiliated. China (PRC) have both resorted to (sometimes absurd) accusations relating to the alleged “man-made” provenance of the virus, and these have stoked nationalist sentiment among populations already suffering from deaths/illness, social isolation, economic losses, and the prospect of a bleaker future due to COVID-19. Indeed, it would appear the magnitude and multidimensionality of the COVID crisis has only served to bring many simmering geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions to a head. Even during the height of the 1 Asian Development Bank, ‘Updated Assessment of the Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19’, May 2020, https://www.adb.org/publications/updated- assessment-economic-impact-covid-19 1 JuneDec 19,25, 20202018 Policy Brief outbreak in Wuhan, and now after its apparent cleavages between China and “the West” in recovery, the PRC has maintained and even particular, widen, and tensions increase. As increased pressures on Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the originating state of the pandemic, the in other territorial disputes, such as the South government of China bears an awesome China Sea (SCS). As Prof. Aaron Friedberg responsibility. This natural predicament is of Princeton University observes - ‘Beijing’s exacerbated by revelations that the Chinese behavior has marked a continuation and, in Communist Party’s (CCP) initial response to certain respects, an intensification of trends the national outbreak left much to be desired. visible before the crisis began.’2 This has led to unwelcome scrutiny of China’s communist political system by the world at President of the National Bureau for Asian large. In this context Jagannath Panda of Research (NBR), Kenneth Pyle, concurs that Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses COVID-19 (IDSA) argues ‘China will find it hard to dismiss the notion that the Covid-19 has revealed a poor ‘has acted as a kind of catalyst speeding up governance structure that puts the entire world and intensifying the other motive forces in danger.’5 Yet so far, despite the CCP’s attempts that predated it. By distracting and further to spin an ex post facto narrative of charity and dividing nations, the pandemic has made assistance through the provision of (sometimes cooperation more difficult. The cumulative faulty) Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to effect is to create an epochal time of crisis afflicted countries - so-called “mask diplomacy”- and looming danger.’3 Beijing has vehemently attempted to deflect questions of accountability for the outbreak. Whilst Peter Jennings, Director of the But, according to Keith Richburg from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), University of Hong Kong ‘around the world, this attests that narrative is being met with derision and outright hostility.’6 ‘COVID-19 has further accelerated strategic change, made the challenges of While a guarded posture is quite predictable dealing with a more assertive China more and understandable on the part of the Chinese immediate and difficult, highlighted the government, such a stonewalling approach is inadequacies of the Trump administration extremely unlikely to satisfy states that have and deepened worries about US capacity suffered so severely from the pandemic. The and intent to underwrite Indo-Pacific CCP simply cannot admit to its own people or Security.’4 the international community any failings in its governance, however apparent, or it risks In the COVID-era we are likely to see the undermining its own legitimacy. Nevertheless, 2 Aaron Friedberg, ‘A Clarifying Moment: The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Future of the U.S.-China Rivalry’, The New Normal in Asia Series, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 29 May 2020, pp. 2-3. 3 Kenneth Pyle, ‘Profound Forces: The Pandemic as Catalyst’, The New Normal in Asia Series, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 21 May 2020, p. 1. 4 Peter Jennings, ‘National security strategy can help us build key alliances to counter China’, The Australian, 2 May 2020, p. 15. 5 Jagannath Panda, ‘PacNet #19 ‒ Five Reasons Why Xi’s ‘Peking Model’ Will Struggle Post-Covid-19’, Pacific Forum, 7 April 2020. 6 Keith B. Richburg, ‘Covid-19 will permanently alter China’s relations with the world’, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 24 Apr 2020. 2 Dec 25, 2018 JuneDec 19,25, 20202018 Policy Brief Policy Brief Richard Maude, of the Asia Society Policy Townsend, ‘Australia is the new frontline for Institute claims ‘The net effect of Beijing’s China’s use of disinformation and economic handling of the pandemic will be a further coercion amidst COVID-19.9 corrosion of trust in China in the United States, Australia, Europe and parts of Asia.’7 Moreover, There are at least four intersecting aspects populations and politicians enraged by the to the diplomatic imbroglio with China in which suffering caused to their own countries are Canberra now finds itself. These include (i) hardly likely to assist with the CCP’s desire diplomatic dissonance; (ii) economic coercion; to play down its culpability. As Ralph Cossa, (iii) conflicting values and interests; and (iv) President of the Pacific Forum Center for risks to national sovereignty. Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues, ‘with China’s failings more evident and (i) Diplomatic dissonance: with the pandemic hitting the US so badly, the political class will focus even more on China The experience of Australia during the and in particular the administration will want COVID crisis is in many ways indicative of the to blame China.’8 The ongoing fallout form the increasing diplomatic challenges states face COVID-19 crisis is therefore accompanied by in dealing with an assertive China set against further increases in the strategic mistrust that the backdrop of heightened regional tensions has been building between China and the West and sharpening Sino-American rivalry. As over recent years. Michelle Gratton, Professorial Fellow at the University of Canberra, attests ‘COVID-19 has Australia: caught in the crossfire simply brought to the surface, in dramatic fashion, the deep and long-term bind Australia The Australian case brings into sharp relief is in.’10 Despite a short-lived attempt to “reset” the various dilemmas faced by Western states Australian-China relations under former Prime in their bilateral relations with China in the Minster Turnbull in 2017, the COVID-19 crisis COVID era. As a middle power country with has brought tensions once again to boiling point a high degree of economic interdependence between the two countries.11 Canberra’s initial with China, and a committed US ally, used to call for an independent external investigation forthrightly articulating its national interests into the origin of the outbreak in Wuhan and and values in its diplomacy, Australia finds itself reform of the WHO were met with apoplexy in an uncomfortable predicament. Bilateral by the Chinese Government. In a masterly relations with the PRC, already testy, have understatement, Maude records that ‘China’s deteriorated further during the COVID crisis, sharp response to Australia’s call for an inquiry with Australian calls for an independent inquiry into the origins of the pandemic has again into the outbreak in Wuhan triggering a cascade raised tensions in a bilateral relationship of diplomatic censure and retaliatory measures already loaded with disagreements.’12 For some from Beijing. As a result, according to Ashley weeks Australia was subjected to a blizzard of 7 Richard Maude, ‘Looking Ahead: Australia and China After the Pandemic’, Asia Society, 13 May 2020. 8 Ralph Cossa, ‘Perspectives: US-China ties going backwards’, Insights, Asialink: The University of Melbourne, 8 May 2020. 9 Ashley Townshend, ‘China’s pandemic-fueled standoff with Australia’, War on the Rocks, 20 May 2020. 10 Michelle Grattan, ‘View from The Hill: Yes, we’re too dependent on China, but changing that is easier said than done’, The Conversation, 1 May 2020.
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